Multiseasonal management of an agricultural pest. I: Development of the theory

A framework for analyzing the trade-off between economic yield from a crop and buildup of resistance to pesticide caused by repeated applications of pesticide is developed. The analysis begins with the case of age-independent pest dynamics, in which pests infest a field by arriving from an external pool. Initially, it is assumed that the pest genetics of interest are single locus, two allele, with resistance to pesticide dominant and susceptible pests more fit in the absence of spraying. The pesticide is applied only once during the season, with timing and intensity of the application as control variables. Interseasonal pest and crop dynamics are studied by solving appropriate ordinary differential equations. Intraseasonal pest dynamics are assumed to follow the Hardy-Weinberg formula. It is shown that the three class diploid model can be replaced by a two class haploid model with essentially no change in the results. A model based on partial differential equations is developed, for the case in which pest dynamics depend upon age, and it is shown that the partial differential equation model can be replaced by a pair of coupled ordinary differential equations. The main operational conclusion in this paper is that the timing of the application of pesticide can be used to control buildup of resistance and that the intensity of the application can be used to control the crop yield.     

Incorporating natural enemies in an economic threshold for dynamically optimal pest management

The control of pests by their natural enemies represents an important regulating ecosystem service that helps maintain the stability of crop ecosystems. These services, however, are often ignored in pest management decision making. In addition, the use of broad-spectrum insecticides can damage the populations of natural enemies, reducing the cost-effectiveness of insecticide investment if unaccounted for in treatment decisions.The existing literature on modeling of biological control of insect pests has generally focused on simulations of the population dynamics of pest and natural enemy species and the processes underlying pest control. But agriculture is a managed ecosystem where predator–prey relationships are heavily influenced by human managers. In modeling managerial choices, this study develops an intra-seasonal dynamic bioeconomic optimization model for insecticide-based pest management that explicitly takes into account both the biological control effect of natural enemies on pest density and the nontarget mortality effect of insecticides on the level of natural pest control supplied. The model captures predator–prey interactions, linking them to crop growth and yield damage functions, which in turn are evaluated in a dynamic optimization framework. We introduce a new decision rule for judicious insecticide decisions using a natural enemy-adjusted economic threshold. This threshold represents the pest population density at which insecticide control becomes optimal in spite of the opportunity cost of injury to natural enemies of the target pest. Using field data from Michigan, the model is applied to the case of soybean aphid (Aphis glycines, Matsumura), a recent invasive pest of soybean (Glycine max), whose management is of both economic and environmental importance to the North Central region of the United States. As illustrated by the numerical examples, such natural enemy-adjusted threshold is likely to lead to fewer recommendations for insecticide use than naïve models that ignore natural enemies, resulting in less insecticide use, while maintaining profitability for farmers that rely on chemical pest control methods.The bioeconomic model developed in this study can be used to conduct a wide variety of analyses such as identifying dynamically optimal spray strategies and estimating the implied economic value of natural control services. Furthermore, with the incorporation of inter-year carry-over factors, such as overwintering of pests and natural enemies, the current model can contribute to building multi-year models for studying long-term pest management.     

Delay dynamics of the slug Deroceras reticulatum,an agricultural pest

Slugs are devastating agricultural and horticultural pests. However, their population dynamics are not well understood and this hinders the construction of efficient control strategies. This is especially true with organic farming for which biological controls are preferred. Moreover, the dominant species, Deroceras reticulatum, does not follow a regular annual life cycle, as do the majority of the other slug species. Its dominance may be associated with this fact. In this paper, we investigate whether mechanisms associated with the slugs’ time-delayed population dynamics are responsible for the large variations in numbers, with particular emphasis on their sensitivity to environmental conditions. In order to do this, several versions of a non-autonomous delay differential equation model are developed in which we highlight some of the contentious issues in slug modelling. Analyses of the models are combined with numerical experiments using parameters based upon controlled laboratory experiments. In the absence of seasonal forcing, we find that the delay term may be neglected in the simplest models. However, the presence of a predator dramatically increases the impact of the delay term and may drive a delay induced instability. Notably, we find that in all cases the delay term is of considerable qualitative importance in models which incorporate seasonal fluctuations. We highlight the fact that the models are capable of producing a large range of solution behaviour and, furthermore, discuss the conditions for, and thus the likelihood of their relevance.     

Host plant resistance to insects: an eco-friendly approach for pest management and environment conservation

Host plant resistance (HPR) to insects is an effective, economical, and environment friendly method of pest control. The most attractive feature of HPR is that farmers virtually do not need any skill in application techniques, and there is no cash investment by the resource poor farmers. Considerable progress has been made in identification and development of crop cultivars with resistance to the major pests in different crops. There is a need to transfer resistance genes into high-yielding cultivars with adaptation to different agro-ecosystems. Resistance to insects should form one of the criteria to release varieties and hybrids for cultivation by the farmers. Genes from the wild relatives of crops, and novel genes, such as those from Bacillus thuringiensis can also be deployed in different crops to make HPR an effective weapon to minimize the losses due to insect pests. HPR will not only cause a major reduction in pesticide use and slowdown the rate of development of resistance to insecticides in insect populations, but also lead to increased activity of beneficial organisms and reduction in pesticide residues in food and food products.     

Graphical evaluation of environmental management options: Examples from a forest-insect pest system

A graphical technique is demonstrated which, when combined with any resource simulation model, permits the resource manager to explore the effects of different management options. Also, this technique (nomogram or response surface) permits derivation of “optimal solutions” given particular objectives. Examples of the methodology are given for the spruce budworm—forest system in eastern Canada. Effects of several kinds of uncertainties are dicussed, including uncertainties in model assumptions, management precision, future objectives and system evolution. The graphical nature of nomograms helps managers and analysts to grasp more easily the complicated behavior of ecological systems models. Finally, the role of computer models in decision-making is discussed.     

Integrated versus chemical pest management: The case of rice field mosquito control

We compare pesticide use and total cost of mosquito control under integrated and chemical control strategies using data from the San Joaquin Valley, California. The analysis shows that the use of biological control allows substantial cuts in chemical treatments, inspection effort and control costs required to meet mosquito control targets. Thus, integrated pest management in this case is clearly superior economically as well as preferable from an ecological perspective. These results suggest the desirability of public action to augment mosquitofish supplies, the lack of which currently constitutes a key obstacle to broader application of the integrated strategy.     

An optimization model for the economic control of reservoir eutrophication

An interdesciplinary attempt to formalize and numerically solve problems of the management of reservoir eutrophication is presented. A dynamic ecosystem model is treated by means of a generalized penalty optimization technique to calculate the combination of control actions that minimize cost under the condition that given water-quality indices are preserved.     

Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions from agricultural economic growth in China's Yangtze River economic belt

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - In this study, carbon emissions from agricultural energy consumption (CEAEC) are fully analyzed using data from the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) between...     

The energy balance closure problem: an overview

This paper gives an overview of 20 years of research on the energy balance closure problem. It will be shown that former assumptions that measuring errors or storage terms are the reason for the unclosed energy balance do not stand up because even turbulent fluxes derived from documented methods and calibrated sensors, net radiation, and ground heat fluxes cannot close the energy balance. Instead, exchange processes on larger scales of the heterogeneous landscape have a significant influence. By including these fluxes, the energy balance can be approximately closed. Therefore, the problem is a scale problem and has important consequences to the measurement and modeling of turbulent fluxes.     

Integrating economic costs into the analysis of flexible conservation management strategies.

Flexible conservation management, where measures (e.g., mowing of meadows, removing invasive species) are selected in each decision period depending on the current state of the ecological system, is generally perceived as superior to fixed management, where the same measure is applied in each decision period independent of the current state of the system. In past comparisons of fixed and flexible conservation strategies the additional costs that arise only in flexible strategies have usually been ignored. In this paper, we present a framework to integrate costs of flexible management into the evaluation of flexible conservation strategies. Using the example of an endangered butterfly species we demonstrate that the costs of flexible management may reverse the rank order of flexible and fixed conservation strategies, such that fixed strategies may lead to better ecological results than flexible ones for the same financial budget.     

Predicting the economic impact of an invasive species on an ecosystem service.

Quantifying the impact of alien invasive species on ecosystem services is an essential step in developing effective practices and policy for invasive species management. Here we develop a stochastic bioeconomic model that enables the economic impact of an invasive pest to be estimated before its arrival, based on relatively poorly specified ecological and economic parameters. We developed the model by using a hypothetical invasion of the varroa bee mite (Varroa destructor) into Australia and the negative flow-on effects that it would have on pollination by reducing honey bee populations, giving rise to a loss of pollination services, reduced crop yields, and additional production costs. If the mite were to continue to be prevented from entering the country over the next 30 years, we estimate that the economic costs avoided would be U.S. $16.4-38.8 million (Aus $21.3-50.5 million) per year. We suggest that current invasion response funding arrangements in Australia, which do not acknowledge these avoided damages, require amendment.     

Concentrating anthropogenic disturbance to balance ecological and economic values: applications to forest management

To maintain healthy ecosystems, natural-disturbance-based management aims to minimize differences between unmanaged and managed landscapes. Two related approaches may help accomplish this goal, either applied together or in isolation: (1) concentrating anthropogenic disturbance through zoning (with protected areas and intensive management); and (2) emulating natural disturbances. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of these two approaches, applied both in isolation and in combination, on the structure of the forest landscape. To do so, we use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model on a large fire-dominated landscape in eastern Canada. Specifically, we examine the effects of (1) increasing the maximum size of logged stands (cutblocks) to better emulate the full range of fire sizes in a fire-dominated landscape, (2) increasing protected areas, and (3) adding aggregated or dispersed intensive wood production areas to the landscape in addition to protected areas (triad management). We focus on maximizing the amount and minimizing the fragmentation of old-growth forest and on reducing road construction. Increasing maximum cutblock size and adding protected areas led to reduced road construction, while the latter also resulted in less fragmentation and more old growth. Although protected areas led to reduced harvest volume, the addition of an intensive production zone (triad management) counterbalanced this loss and resulted in more old growth than equivalent scenarios with protected areas but no intensive production zone. However, we found no differences between aggregated and dispersed intensive wood production. Our results imply that differences between unmanaged and managed landscapes can be reduced by concentrating logging efforts through a combination of protected areas and intensive wood production, and by creating some larger cutblocks. We conclude that the forest industry and regulators should therefore seek to increase protected areas through triad management and consider increasing maximum cutblock size. These results add to a growing body of literature indicating that intensive management on a small part of the landscape may be better than less intensive management spread out over a much larger part of the landscape, whether this is in the context of forestry, agriculture, or urban development.     

Identification of the sex pheromone of Conogethes pluto: a pest of Alpinia

In recent years, Conogethes pluto (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) has become a major pest of Alpinia and other ornamental gingers in the Northern Territory and Queensland, Australia. This pest damages the flowers and bores into the stems, causing substantial losses to production. Currently, no synthetic sex pheromone is available to monitor or control this pest. This work aims at the identification of the sex pheromone of this pest. Analysis of the sex pheromone gland of female C. pluto by gas chromatography/electroantennogram detector revealed the presence of seven candidate pheromone compounds that elicited electroantennogram responses. Using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analysis and micro-derivatization reactions, six compounds were identified as (E)-10-hexadecenal, as the main pheromone compound, (Z)-10-hexadecenal, hexadecanal, (E)-10-hexadecen-1-ol, (10E,12E)-hexadeca-10,12-dienal and (3Z,6Z,9Z)-tricosa-3,6,9-triene as minor pheromone compounds. In two-field trapping experiments, C. pluto responded to the six-component blend, and three of six compounds, i.e., (E)-10-hexadecenal, (3Z,6Z,9Z)-tricosa-3,6,9-triene, and (10E,12E)-hexadeca-10,12-dienal were shown to be necessary for attraction. In a subsequent experiment testing various doses (i.e., 0.01, 0.1, and 1 mg) of the six-component blend, the largest number of males was captured in traps baited with a lure loading of 1 mg. The availability of the sex pheromone of C. pluto will enable monitoring and provides the basis for additional control options for this pest.     

Eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements in nocturnal conditions: an analysis of the problem

A detailed analysis of the various processes at work in stable boundary layers was made. It pointed out that two main mechanisms may affect eddy covariance measurements in stable conditions and that their impacts were different. On one hand, intermittent turbulence produces strongly nonstationary events during which the validity of turbulent transport and storage measurements is uncertain. On the other hand, during breeze and drainage flow events, significant advection takes place and competes with turbulent flux and storage. Intermittent turbulence questions both the ability of eddy covariance systems to adequately capture turbulent flux and storage and the representativeness of the measurements. Ability of the systems to capture the fluxes could be improved by adapting the averaging time period or the high pass filtering characteristics. However, beyond this, the question of representativeness of the flux remains open as the flux measured during an intermittent turbulence event represents not only the source term, but also the removal of CO2 that built up in the control volume and that cannot be simply related to the source term. In these conditions, the u* discrimination is likely to be insufficient and should be completed with a stationarity criterion. Further research should allow determining better selection criteria. Advection occurs mainly in presence of flows associated with topographical slopes (drainage flows) or with land use changes (breezes). Direct advection measurements were performed at several sites, but the results were shown to be strongly site dependent. A classification based on the general flow pattern and on the source intensity evolution along streamlines was proposed here. Five different patterns were identified that helped to classify the different observations. The classification was found to be a fairly good fit for the observations. This could serve as a tool to better understand and quantify the fluxes at sites subjected to repeatable patterns.     

外来有害生物风险评估技术

概述了有害生物风险分析的概念、必要性、生物学基础和一般程序 ;论述了生态气候图、农业气候相似距库、生态气候评价的分析模型、地理信息系统、专家系统、基于定性分析与定量估算相结合的数学模型等有害生物风险分析技术的原理和特点 ;认为应用网络技术 ,建立基于分布式计算的全球入侵物种风险评价数据体系 ,可有效提高风险评价的速度和准确性。     

Denitrification and the nitrogen budget of a reservoir in an agricultural landscape.

Denitrification is an important process in aquatic sediments, but its role has not been assessed in the N mass balance of upper-Midwestern (USA) reservoirs that receive large agricultural riverine N inputs. We used a 4400-ha reservoir to determine the role of denitrification in the N mass balance and effectiveness in reducing downstream transport of NO(3-)N. Sediment denitrification was (1) measured monthly (March 2002-March 2003) at eight sites in the Lake Shelbyville reservoir in central Illinois using the acetylene inhibition, chloramphenicol technique, (2) scaled to the overall reservoir and compared to N not accounted for in a mass balance, and (3) estimated indirectly using long-term (1981-2003) mass balances of N in the reservoir. Denitrification rates in the reservoir were high during spring and early summer of 2002, when maximum NO(3-)N concentrations were measured (10-14 mg NO(3-)N/L). We estimated that denitrification for the year was between 2580 and 5150 Mg N. Missing N from the mass balance was 3004 Mg N, suggesting that sediment denitrification was the sink. Areal rates of sediment denitrification in the reservoir ranged from 62 to 225 g N x m(-2) x yr(-1), with rates a function of both denitrification intensity (microg N x g dry mass x h(-1)) and the overall mass of sediment present. From 1981 to 2003 the average NO(3-)N inlet flux was 8900 Mg N/yr. About 58% of the total NO(3-)N input was removed, and annual NO(3-)N removed as a percentage of inputs was significantly related to reservoir retention time (average = 0.36 yr for the 23 years, range = 0.21-0.84 yr). By scaling denitrification in Lake Shelbyville to other reservoirs in Illinois, we estimated a sink of 48900 Mg N/yr. When combined with estimated in-stream denitrification, 60900 Mg N/yr was estimated to be removed by sediment denitrification. This reduces riverine export from Illinois to the Gulf of Mexico, where the flux during the 1990s was about 244000 Mg N/yr, and illustrates the importance of reservoir denitrification as an N sink in Midwestern agricultural landscapes.     

华北平原集约农区种植业生态经济系统的能值分析——以河北沧州为例

从能值的角度出发,以华北平原代表区域——河北省沧州地区2003年统计数据和调查数据为基础,对该地区种植业生态经济系统的能值投入和产出进行首次分析。结果显示:该地区不可更新的工业辅助能占总能值投入的78.5%,可更新的能值投入仅占21.4%(可更新环境资源8.79%、可更新有机12.68%),说明农业生产过渡依赖于外源不可更新辅助能的投入;此外,高系统太阳能值转换率、低净能值产出率和高环境负荷率的特点,表明该地区种植业的科技发展水平比较高,对环境的压力相当大。综合结果说明种植业系统对环境资源的过度利用必然会引起生态环境的破坏。基于此,提出华北平原集约农区种植业生态经济系统可持续发展对策:以优化施肥为基础,合理减少化肥投入为代表,适当降低工业辅助能投入;调整农业增产投入战略,努力解决该地区以水资源短缺为主的作物增产限制因子;改变农业生产中有机能值与无机能值的投入比例,降低系统环境负荷率。     

Vertical infiltration of fuel oil hydrocarbons in an agricultural soil

The influence of rainfall, air temperature and soil moisture on the vertical mobility in the soil of fuel oil hydrocarbons (HC) was investigated in a field experiment. A controlled spreading of fuel oil (nC10‐nC25) was performed at a rate of 5 L HCm^‐2 on an agricultural soil in summer and in winter. Concentration, chemical composition of HC and soil moisture were regularly determined at different soil depths between 0 and 140 cm, 1 h, 3, 8and 15 days (d) after the spreading of oil. Sorption of hydrocarbons onto the organo‐mineral matrix of the soil was studied in laboratory experiments. The results showed that in summer, with an air temperature of 24°C and without water leaching in the soil profile, 65% of the initial HC remained trapped in the 0–140 cm soil layer, about 20% of the HC volatilized and around 15% migrated deeper. A vertical selective migration of the lightest (nC10‐nC15) HC (naphthas) was shown lSd after the spreading of fuel oil. Naphthas progressively reached the 120–140 cm soil layers whereas the heavy fractions of oil (nC17‐nC25) migrated and concentrated in the 0–60 cm soil layers. In winter, when soil was regularly watered by rainfalls and at low air temperatures, only 47% of the initial HC remained in the 0–140 cm profile after 15 d. A fast vertical infiltration of naphthas occurred within the first 3 d. After 15 d, all HC were detected in the same relative amounts as in the initial oil in the whole profile. Volatilization was negligible in winter and an increase in the migration of total oil at depth in the soil profile was shown. As inferred from the laboratory experiments, the high soil moisture led to the decrease in HC sorption on the organo‐mineral matter of the soil.     

Towards an effective framework for coastal zone management: the Egyptian experience

Coastal areas are among the most highly populated, most exploited areas and vulnerable ecosystems in the world. How these interface areas between terrestrial and marine environments can effectively planned and managed has proved to be extremely challenging. Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) has been promoted as a potential panacea for the effective planning and management of these areas. However achieving such goals for ICZM is complex because of the many human activities and diverse regulatory regimes in coastal areas requires effective integration along many dimensions. Within the context of the developing world, which is often characterised by highly centralised governance systems combined with a lack of effective public and stakeholder participation in planning delivering an effective ICZM, which is drawn from collaborative planning ideas has proved particularly problematic. Furthermore within these countries there have been few critical and analytical evaluations of why ICZM experiments have failed. This paper seeks to begin to address this gap by suggesting that Actor Network Theory (ANT) is an appropriate analytical framework to critically evaluate why ICZM initiatives in Egypt, at both the national and local level, have been relatively unsuccessful. The critical evaluation leads to some practical recommendations that could help to enhance the implementation of ICZM in Egypt.     

Ranked set sampling allocation models for multiple skewed variables: an application to agricultural data

The mean of a balanced ranked set sample is more efficient than the mean of a simple random sample of equal size and the precision of ranked set sampling may be increased by using an unbalanced allocation when the population distribution is highly skewed. The aim of this paper is to show the practical benefits of the unequal allocation in estimating simultaneously the means of more skewed variables through real data. In particular, the allocation rule suggested in the literature for a single skewed distribution may be easily applied when more than one skewed variable are of interest and an auxiliary variable correlated with them is available. This method can lead to substantial gains in precision for all the study variables with respect to the simple random sampling, and to the balanced ranked set sampling too.