Community-led reforestation: cultivating the potential of virtuous cycles to confer resilience in disaster disrupted social–ecological systems

Human relationships with trees can result in widespread citizen-led reforestation projects that catalyze social–biological-reinforcing feedback loops and set in motion virtuous cycles that restore perturbed social–ecological systems. These virtuous cycles confer resilience in such systems that counterbalance the tendency for vicious cycles to be triggered by destructive behavior and neglect. Given this argument, we ask: how do we cultivate the potential for virtuous cycles to confer resilience in social–ecological systems? To answer this question, we review feedback mechanisms and identify virtuous cycles catalyzed via ecological restoration to highlight their importance to the resilience of social–ecological systems. We then conceptualize these cycles with a causal map (also known as a causal loop diagram) illustrating an example where restoration activities and civic ecology practices contributed to feedbacks and virtuous cycles. Following from this example, we discuss approaches for recognizing and investing in virtuous cycles that accompany social–ecological systems and outline approaches for managing such cycles.     

Dwelling in the biosphere: exploring an embodied human–environment connection in resilience thinking

Resilience has emerged as a prominent paradigm for interpreting and shaping human–environment connections in the context of global environmental change. Resilience emphasizes dynamic spatial and temporal change in social–ecological systems where humans are inextricably interwoven with the environment. While influential, resilience thinking has been critiqued for an under-theorized framing of socio-cultural dynamics. In this paper, we examine how the resilience concepts of planetary boundaries and reconnecting to the biosphere frame human–environment connection in terms of mental representations and biophysical realities. We argue that focusing solely on mental reconnection limits further integration between the social and the ecological, thus countering a foundational commitment in resilience thinking to social–ecological interconnectedness. To address this susceptibility we use Tim Ingold’s ‘dwelling perspective’ to outline an embodied form of human–environment (re)connection. Through dwelling, connections are not solely produced in the mind, but through the ongoing interactivity of mind, body and environment through time. Using this perspective, we position the biosphere as an assemblage that is constantly in the making through the active cohabitation of humans and nonhumans. To illustrate insights that may emerge from this perspective we bring an embodied connection to earth stewardship, given its growing popularity for forging local to global sustainability transformations.     

人类健康风险的定量评估与分析

通过深入研究．将人类健康风险解析环境污染、食物安全、疾病流行和医疗保障四个方面。在建立一套评价人类健康风险指标体系的基础上。对40个样本国家进行评估。用聚类分析的方法．将40个国家分为四类，在对每一类国家的人类健康风险特点进行对比发现，在同等经济发展水平下，中国的人类健康风险相对较高。通过分析人类健康风险与经济发展水平的关系得出,人均GNI 1000，3000美元是国家经济发展的关键时期。同样也是改善人类健康状况的关键时期，这一时期国家要高度重视改善人类健康状况。     

Quantitative Evaluation and Analysis on Human Health Risk

Health condition is related to the economic and social development of a country and the whole world. We concluded that the influencing factors of health risk include environment pollution, food security, disease threat and health care condition, and then an indicators system is put forward in the paper. Based on the foundation of the indicators system, 40 countries were chosen to evaluate the condition of human health risk. With the method of Hierarchical Cluster Analysis, 40 countries were divided into four groups, and we analyzed the characteristic of each group. Compared with other countries at the similar development level of economy, the human health risk of China is much higher. We analyzed the correlation between human health risk and the economy development level, and then we concluded that a country should attach importance to improving the condition of human health, when the GNI per capita is between $ 1000 and 3000 US dollars. The stage is vital for economy development, and also for the improvement of the human health condition. We found that countries with high human health risk are mostly in Africa and Asia. The developed countries should help the developing countries reduce the human health risk for a win-win situation of the development of the whole humanity.     

Assessing noxious effects of dietary exposure to methylmercury,PCBs and Se coexisting in environmentally contaminated rice in male mice

Polychlorinated biphenyls and methylmercury are two of the most ubiquitous environmental contaminants in Guizhou province. Rice is eaten with almost every meal and provides more calories than any single food in Guizhou province. The estimated tolerable daily intake of total mercury, MeHg, Se and PCBs from Guizhou contaminated rice by Chinese people showed that MeHg and/or PCBs exceeded the corresponding limits. The aim of this study was to characterize the effects of exposure to environmental contaminated rice on neurobehavioral development and neurobiological disruptions in mice. Animals were treated from postnatal day (PND) 22 to 91. At PND 26–91 days of age, mice were tested for neurobehavioural development and neurochemical level changes. We showed that dietary exposure to environmentally contaminated rice gave rise to different changes in antioxidants. Reduced superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity and excess increased nitric oxide (NO) indicated aggravation of oxidative status after long-term dietary intake of Hg and PCBs. Neurobehavioral derangement in the central nervous system and significant delay in the Morris water maze test response on PND 91 are correlated with the increased of c-fos/c-jun expression levels in the cerebral cortex. These results suggest that MeHg neurotoxicity might be a greater hazard than that associated with PCB, but PCB may augment the neurobehavioral deficits caused by increased levels of mercury exposure. The simultaneous intake of selenium might have a protective effect on Hg accumulation in the body, and vitamin C might protect mice against the toxic effects of PCBs. However, the protective role of Se and vitamin C is very limited for multiple-agent pollution. Immediately early genes in the brain response to contaminated rice might be dependent on interaction among NO, NO synthase (NOS), SOD and reduced glutathione (GSH). We should be alert to mental health problems in human beings when any kind of Hg- and PCB-polluted food is consumed.     

Contributions of sustainability science to the study of environmental health problems

From the ontological point of view, environmental health problems do not differ from problems of unsustainability. This leads us to think that sustainability science could contribute to resolve important questions that studies on environmental health are not resolving. A literature review was made in order to analyse the scope and limitations of studies on environmental health problems. Based on the characteristics of environmental health studies, we highlighted some examples of questions that are being ignored and analysed four contributions that sustainability science could make to solve them. These contributions come from three key components of sustainability science: (1) the unit of analysis—social–ecological systems, (2) a theory—resilience theory and, specifically, social–ecological resilience, (3) and the approaches of complex systems and transdisciplinarity. From a sustainability science perspective, four contributions could be made: environmental health problems are redefined as social–ecological systems; environmental health is assumed to be the result of adaptation processes; the environment and society are recognized as systems, not as matrices of factors; and human action acquires content and structure and, in turn, explains the behaviour of environmental health problems.     

环境污染与城乡收入差距:作用机制与基于中国经济事实的检验

环境污染是与居民健康水平紧密相关的,并且会导致处于不同收入阶层的居民的健康人力资本投资决策呈现出异质性特征,从而影响居民收入差距。本文通过构建跨期经济模型研究环境污染对城乡收入差距的影响,研究发现:环境污染导致城镇居民和农村居民出现相同比例的健康损害,这种损害会拉大城乡居民绝对收入差距;处于低收入阶层的农村居民应对环境污染带来的健康损害会进行相对较少的健康人力资本投资,因而城乡居民的健康水平差异会逐渐拉大,所以城乡收入的相对差距也会随着环境污染的加剧而扩大。基于理论研究结果,运用中国2002—2013年的省级面板数据进行实证研究发现:(1)环境污染对中国城乡收入差距的影响显著为正,并且基于人均二氧化硫排放量和人均废水化学需氧量排放量的计量检验结果是一致的,这表明研究结论是稳健的;(2)运用门槛面板模型的计量结果表明当滞后一期的城乡收入差距增加到临界点之后,环境污染对城乡收入差距的正效应会明显增强,表明环境污染对处于不同收入阶层的城镇居民和农村居民的健康人力资本投资决策有显著的影响,环境污染进一步拉大城乡居民的相对收入差距;(3)本文的研究结果证明了在教育、政府行为、城镇化等影响城乡收入差距的核心因素之外,环境污染也是影响中国城乡居民收入差距的显著性因素,并且其影响会随着环境污染的加剧和期初收入差距的拉大而变得更加严重,因此在治理中国城乡收入差距的过程中,相关政策应该平衡环境污染成本在城镇居民和农村居民之间的分配。     

Analysis of currently available data for characterising the risk of engineered nanomaterials to the environment and human health--lessons learned from four case studies

Production volumes and the use of engineered nanomaterials in many innovative products are continuously increasing, however little is known about their potential risk for the environment and human health. We have reviewed publicly available hazard and exposure data for both, the environment and human health and attempted to carry out a basic risk assessment appraisal for four types of nanomaterials: fullerenes, carbon nanotubes, metals, and metal oxides (ENRHES project 2009(1)). This paper presents a summary of the results of the basic environmental and human health risk assessments of these case studies, highlighting the cross cutting issues and conclusions about fate and behaviour, exposure, hazard and methodological considerations. The risk assessment methodology being the basis for our case studies was that of a regulatory risk assessment under REACH (ECHA, 2008(2)), with modifications to adapt to the limited available data. If possible, environmental no-effect concentrations and human no-effect levels were established from relevant studies by applying assessment factors in line with the REACH guidance and compared to available exposure data to discuss possible risks. When the data did not allow a quantitative assessment, the risk was assessed qualitatively, e.g. for the environment by evaluating the information in the literature to describe the potential to enter the environment and to reach the potential ecological targets. Results indicate that the main risk for the environment is expected from metals and metal oxides, especially for algae and Daphnia, due to exposure to both, particles and ions. The main risks for human health may arise from chronic occupational inhalation exposure, especially during the activities of high particle release and uncontrolled exposure. The information on consumer and environmental exposure of humans is too scarce to attempt a quantitative risk characterisation. It is recognised that the currently available database for both, hazard and exposure is limited and there are high uncertainties in any conclusion on a possible risk. The results should therefore not be used for any regulatory decision making. Likewise, it is recognised that the REACH guidance was developed without considering the specific behaviour and the mode of action of nanomaterials and further work in the generation of data but also in the development of methodologies is required.     

The effects of phthalates in the cardiovascular and reproductive systems: A review

Every year millions of tons of plastic are produced around the world and humans are increasingly exposed to them. This constant exposure to plastics has raised some concerns against human health, particularly when it comes to phthalates. These compounds have endocrine-disrupting properties, as they have the ability to bind molecular targets in the body and interfere with hormonal function and quantity. The main use of phthalates is to give flexibility to polyvinyl chloride (PVC) polymers. Phthalates are found in a variety of industrial and consumer products, and as they are not covalently bound to the plastic, phthalates contaminate the environment from which human exposure occurs. Studies in human and animal populations suggest a correlation between phthalate exposure and adverse health outcomes, particularly at the reproductive and cardiovascular systems, however there is much less information about the phthalate toxicity of the later. Thus, the main purpose of this review is to present the studies relating the effects already stated of phthalates on the cardiovascular and reproductive systems, and also present the link between these two systems.     

A new conceptual model for quantifying transboundary contribution of atmospheric pollutants in the East Asian Pacific rim region

Transboundary transport of air pollution is a serious environmental concern as pollutant affects both human health and the environment. Many numerical approaches have been utilized to quantify the amounts of pollutants transported to receptor regions, based on emission inventories from possible source regions. However, sparse temporal–spatial observational data and uncertainty in emission inventories might make the transboundary transport contribution difficult to estimate. This study presents a conceptual quantitative approach that uses transport pathway classification in combination with curve fitting models to simulate an air pollutant concentration baseline for pollution background concentrations. This approach is used to investigate the transboundary transport contribution of atmospheric pollutants to a metropolitan area in the East Asian Pacific rim region. Trajectory analysis categorized pollution sources for the study area into three regions: East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan cities. The occurrence frequency and transboundary contribution results suggest the predominant source region is the East Asian continent. This study also presents an application to evaluate heavy pollution cases for health concerns. This new baseline construction model provides a useful tool for the study of the contribution of transboundary pollution delivered to receptors, especially for areas deficient in emission inventories and regulatory monitoring data for harmful air pollutants.     

Life cycle impact assessment modeling for particulate matter: A new approach based on physico-chemical particle properties

Particulate matter (PM) causes severe damage to human health globally. Airborne PM is a mixture of solid and liquid droplets suspended in air. It consists of organic and inorganic components, and the particles of concern range in size from a few nanometers to approximately 10 μm. The complexity of PM is considered to be the reason for the poor understanding of PM and may also be the reason why PM in environmental impact assessment is poorly defined. Currently, life cycle impact assessment is unable to differentiate highly toxic soot particles from relatively harmless sea salt. The aim of this article is to present a new impact assessment for PM where the impact of PM is modeled based on particle physico-chemical properties. With the new method, 2781 characterization factors that account for particle mass, particle number concentration, particle size, chemical composition and solubility were calculated. Because particle sizes vary over four orders of magnitudes, a sound assessment of PM requires that the exposure model includes deposition of particles in the lungs and that the fate model includes coagulation as a removal mechanism for ultrafine particles. The effects model combines effects from particle size, solubility and chemical composition. The first results from case studies suggest that PM that stems from emissions generally assumed to be highly toxic (e.g. biomass combustion and fossil fuel combustion) might lead to results that are similar compared with an assessment of PM using established methods. However, if harmless PM emissions are emitted, established methods enormously overestimate the damage. The new impact assessment allows a high resolution of the damage allocatable to different size fractions or chemical components. This feature supports a more efficient optimization of processes and products when combating air pollution.     

Formaldehyde in China: Production, consumption, exposure levels, and health effects

Formaldehyde, an economically important chemical, is classified as a human carcinogen that causes nasopharyngeal cancer and probably leukemia. As China is the largest producer and consumer of formaldehyde in the world, the Chinese population is potentially at increased risk for cancer and other associated health effects. In this paper we review formaldehyde production, consumption, exposure, and health effects in China. We collected and analyzed over 200 Chinese and English documents from scientific journals, selected newspapers, government publications, and websites pertaining to formaldehyde and its subsequent health effects.Over the last 20 years, China's formaldehyde industry has experienced unprecedented growth, and now produces and consumes one-third of the world's formaldehyde. More than 65% of the Chinese formaldehyde output is used to produce resins mainly found in wood products — the major source of indoor pollution in China. Although the Chinese government has issued a series of standards to regulate formaldehyde exposure, concentrations in homes, office buildings, workshops, public places, and food often exceed the national standards. In addition, there have been numerous reports of formaldehyde-induced health problems, including poisoning and cancer. The lack of quality epidemiological studies and basic data on exposed populations emphasizes the need for more extensive studies on formaldehyde and its related health effects in China.     

Risk communication and sustainability science: lessons from the field

Sustainability science aims to help societies across the globe address the increased environmental and health crises and risks that range from poverty to climate change to health pandemics. With the increased magnitude and frequency of these large-scale risks to different societies, scientists and institutions have increasingly recognized the need for improved communication and collaboration among researchers, governments, businesses, and communities. This article argues that risk communication has fundamentally important contributions to make to sustainability science’s mission to create use-inspired, “actionable science” that can lead to solutions. Risk communication research can advance the mission of sustainability science to engage a wide range of stakeholders. This kind of engagement is especially important in the context of addressing sustainability problems that are characterized by high levels of uncertainty and complexity. We introduce three core tenets of risk communication research that are fundamental to advancing sustainability science. Risk communication specifically offers an increased understanding of how system feedbacks, human perceptions, and levels of uncertainty influence the study and design of solutions within social ecological systems.     

Cumulative risk assessment of chemical exposures in urban environments

We performed a cumulative risk assessment for people living in a hypothetical urban environment, called Urbania. The main aims of the study were to demonstrate how a cumulative risk assessment for a middle-sized European city can be performed and to identify the bottlenecks in terms of data availability and knowledge gaps. The assessment focused on five air pollutants (i.e., PM??, benzene, toluene, nonane and naphthalene) and six food pesticides (i.e., acetamiprid, carbendazim, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, imidacloprid and permethrin). Exposure predictions showed that PM??, benzene and naphthalene exposure frequently exceeded the standards, and that the indoor environment contributed more than the outdoor environment. Effect predictions showed that mixture and interaction effects were generally limited. However, model calculations indicated potential synergistic effects between naphthalene and benzene and between chlorpyrifos, diazinon and toluene. PM?? dominated the health impact expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). We conclude that measures to reduce the health impact of environmental pollution should focus on the improvement of indoor air quality and the reduction of PM?? emissions. Cumulative risk assessment can be improved by (1) the development of person-oriented exposure models that can simulate the cumulative exposure history of individuals, (2) a better mechanistic understanding of the effects of cumulative stressors, and (3) the development of instruments to prioritize stressors for inclusion in cumulative risk assessments.     

Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health.We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination.Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM_2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived.A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted.     

Power and politics of social–ecological regime shifts in the Chilika lagoon,India and Tam Giang lagoon,Vietnam

Analyses of ecological regime shifts primarily focus on abrupt, long-term and significant changes that trigger fundamental reorganisation in ecosystem structure and function. There remains limited empirical work on the relationship between regime shifts and social inequities, power imbalances, and social and environmental injustices. Inadequate attention to this social context restricts our ability to predict and avert impending regime shifts, or to effectively navigate where thresholds have been crossed. In this paper, we offer an initial empirical assessment of politics and power in two coastal lagoons in India and Vietnam experiencing abrupt change. We adopt a realist view of power to: (1) assess the social relations structuring human–environment interactions in both lagoons; (2) characterise the dominant framings and narratives that influence if and how regime shifts are understood; (3) consider who wins and loses if and when regime shifts and other forms of rapid environmental change take place; and (4) reflect on the implications of power and politics for the governance of regime shifts in linked human–ocean settings.     

Using city-wide mobile noise assessments to estimate bicycle trip annual exposure to Black Carbon

Several studies have shown that a significant amount of daily air pollution exposure, in particular Black Carbon (BC), is inhaled during bicycle trips. Previously, the instantaneous BC exposure of cyclists was modeled as the sum of a background concentration and a local traffic related component based on a local assessment of traffic noise. We present a fast and low cost methodology to achieve a city-wide assessment of yearly average BC exposure of cyclists along their trips, based on a city-wide mobile noise sensing campaign.The methodology requires participatory sensing measurements of noise, partially combined with BC and/or other air pollutants sensitive to local traffic variations. The combined measurements cover the spatial and meteorological variability and provide the data for an instantaneous exposure model. The mobile noise-only measurements map the full city; and yearly meteorology statistics are used to extrapolate the instantaneous exposure model to a yearly average map of in-traffic air pollution exposure. Less than four passages at each segment along the network with mobile noise equipment are necessary to reach a standard error of 500 ng/m³ for the yearly average BC exposure.A strong seasonal effect due to the BC background concentration is detected. The background contributes only 25% to the total trip exposure during spring and summer. During winter the background component increases to 50–60%. Engine related traffic noise along the bicyclist's route is a valid indicator of the BC exposure along the route, independent of the seasonal background. Low exposure route selection results in an exposure reduction of 35% in winter and 60% in summer, sensitive to the weather conditions, specific trip attributes and the available alternatives.The methodology is relevant for further research into the local effects of air pollution on health. Mobile noise mapping adds local traffic data including traffic dynamics into the air pollution exposure assessments. Local policy makers and urban planners can use the results to support the implementation of low exposure infrastructure, create awareness through route planners and achieve behavioral changes toward active travel modes.     

Inequalities in cumulative environmental burdens among three urbanized counties in California

Low-income communities and communities of color often suffer from multiple environmental hazards that pose risks to their health. Here we extended a cumulative environmental hazard inequality index (CEHII) – developed to assess inequalities in air pollution hazards – to compare the inequality among three urban counties in California: Alameda, San Diego, and Los Angeles. We included a metric for heat stress to the analysis because exposure to excessively hot weather is increasingly recognized as a threat to human health and well-being. We determined if inequalities from heat stress differed between the three regions and if this added factor modified the metric for inequality from cumulative exposure to air pollution. This analysis indicated that of the three air pollutants considered, diesel particulate matter had the greatest inequality, followed by nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). As measured by our index, the inequalities from cumulative exposure to air pollution were greater than those of single pollutants. Inequalities were significantly different among single air pollutant hazards within each region and between regions; however, inequalities from the cumulative burdens did not differ significantly between any two regions. Modeled absolute and relative heat stress inequalities were small except for relative heat stress in San Diego which had the second highest inequality. Our analysis, techniques, and results provide useful insights for policy makers to assess inequalities between regions and address factors that contribute to overall environmental inequality within each region.     

Residential exposure to traffic noise and risk of incident atrial fibrillation: A cohort study

BackgroundStudies have found long-term exposure to traffic noise to be associated with higher risk for hypertension, ischemic heart disease and stroke. We aimed to investigate the novel hypothesis that traffic noise increases the risk of atrial fibrillation (A-fib).MethodsIn a population-based cohort of 57,053 people aged 50–64 years at enrolment in 1993–1997, we identified 2692 cases of first-ever hospital admission of A-fib from enrolment to end of follow-up in 2011 using a nationwide registry. The mean follow-up time was 14.7 years. Present and historical residential addresses were identified for all cohort members from 1987 to 2011. For all addresses, exposure to road traffic and railway noise was estimated using the Nordic prediction method and exposure to air pollution was estimated using a validated dispersion model. We used Cox proportional hazard model for the analyses with adjustment for lifestyle, socioeconomic position and air pollution.ResultsA 10 dB higher 5-year time-weighted mean exposure to road traffic noise was associated with a 6% higher risk of A-fib (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.06; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.00–1.12) in models adjusted for factors related to lifestyle and socioeconomic position. The association followed a monotonic exposure–response relationship. In analyses with adjustment for air pollution, NO_x or NO₂, there were no statistically significant associations between exposure to road traffic noise and risk of A-fib; IRR: 1.04; (95% CI: 0.96–1.11) and IRR: 1.01; (95% CI: 0.94–1.09), respectively. Exposure to railway noise was not associated with A-fib.ConclusionExposure to residential road traffic noise may be associated with higher risk of A-fib, though associations were difficult to separate from exposure to air pollution.     

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climate–water conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climate–conflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the south-eastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.