How do we assess vulnerability to climate change in India? A systematic review of literature

In countries like India where multiple risks interact with socio-economic differences to create and sustain vulnerability, assessing the vulnerability of people, places, and systems to climate change is a critical tool to prioritise adaptation. In India, several vulnerability assessment tools have been designed spanning multiple disciplines, by multiple actors, and at multiple scales. However, their conceptual, methodological, and disciplinary underpinnings, and resulting implications on who is identified as vulnerable, have not been interrogated. Addressing this gap, we systematically review peer-reviewed publications (n = 78) and grey literature (n = 42) to characterise how vulnerability to climate change is assessed in India. We frame our enquiry against four questions: (1) How is vulnerability conceptualised (vulnerability of whom/what, vulnerability to what), (2) who assesses vulnerability, (3) how is vulnerability assessed (methodology, scale), and (4) what are the implications of methodology on outcomes of the assessment. Our findings emphasise that methods to assess vulnerability to climate change are embedded in the disciplinary traditions, methodological approaches, and often-unstated motivations of those designing the assessment. Further, while most assessments acknowledge the importance of scalar and temporal aspects of vulnerability, we find few examples of it being integrated in methodology. Such methodological myopia potentially overlooks how social differentiation, ecological shifts, and institutional dynamics construct and perpetuate vulnerability. Finally, we synthesise the strengths and weaknesses of current vulnerability assessment methods in India and identify a predominance of research in rural landscapes with a relatively lower coverage in urban and peri-urban settlements, which are key interfaces of transitions.     

Socio-economic vulnerability of the megacity of Shanghai (China) to sea-level rise and associated storm surges

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to many coastal areas and will likely have important impacts on socio-economic development in those regions. Located on the eastern coast in China, the megacity of Shanghai is particularly vulnerable to SLR and associated storm surge risks. Using the municipality of Shanghai as a case study, the possible impacts of flooding risks caused by SLR and associated storm surges on socio-economic development in the region were analysed by a Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (SPRC) conceptual model. The projections of flooding risk in the study area were simulated by MIKE21 (a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model) for the three time periods of 2030, 2050 and 2100. An index system for vulnerability assessment was devised, in which flooding depth, density of population, GDP per capita, GDP per unit land, loss rate under flooding and fiscal revenue were selected as the key indicators. A quantitative spatial assessment method based on a GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating and then grading the vulnerability index. The results showed that in the 2030 projection, 99.3 % of the areas show no vulnerability to SLR and associated storm surges under the present infrastructure. By 2050, the areas with low, moderate and high vulnerabilities change significantly to 5.3, 8.0 and 23.9 %, respectively, while by 2100, the equivalent figures are 12.9, 6.3 and 30.7 %. The application of the SPRC model, the methodology and the results from this study could assist with the objective and quantitative assessment of the socio-economic vulnerability of other similar coastal regions undergoing the impacts of SLR and associated storm surges. Based on the results of this study, mitigation and adaptation measures should be considered, which include the controlling the rate of land subsidence, the reinforcement of coastal defence systems and the introduction of adaptation in long-term urban planning.     

基于随机森林与可变模糊集的城市洪涝脆弱性评估

洪涝灾害作为城市面临的重要自然灾害之一，对社会经济发展造成了重要的影响。首先从自然、经济、基础设施3个方面利用随机森林模型以数据驱动的方式筛选出了影响城市洪涝脆弱性的12项关键指标并据此构建了城市洪涝脆弱性评估指标体系。在此基础上，基于随机森林和熵权法计算指标体系权重，构建基于随机森林（RF）和可变模糊集（VFS）耦合的城市洪涝脆弱性评估模型（RF-VFS）。最后，以长江流域特大城市南京市为例，进行洪涝脆弱性评估，得到了影响南京市洪涝脆弱性的关键影响因素，并从完善城市洪涝管理政策、加强城市基础设施建设和防灾减灾应急措施3个方面提出了降低城市洪涝脆弱性的对策建议。结果表明：南京市洪涝脆弱性与汛期降雨量、硬地面积、地均GDP、城市道路网密度等指标呈较强关联；近20年南京市洪涝脆弱性等级呈上升趋势且高等级的年份出现频率愈加频繁，尤其是近5年洪涝脆弱性等级较高，研究结果与实际调研情况相符。该研究能为南京市相关管理部门加强洪涝管理和降低洪涝脆弱性提供决策参考，同时对其他城市的洪涝灾害管理也具有借鉴意义。     

Urbanisation Without Development: Environmental and Health Implications in African Cities

Sustainable development advocates for a balance between socio-economic development and the environment in the pursuit of human advancement. In Africa, high population growth and inadequate infrastructure in urban areas exert pressure on the environment and this threatens the health and wellbeing of urban residents. The population of the African continent until the 1960s was predominantly rural. This scenario has taken a swift turn and some of the major shifts in the global urbanisation process are taking place on the continent. Factors including natural increase in the population, rural–urban migration, strife and hunger leading to the internal displacement of populations have exacerbated the urbanisation process in Africa. The situation has been worsened by the imposition of Western development policies, including structural adjustment programmes on African nations, which has eroded the subsistence base of rural agricultural communities and further ignited rural urban migration. The failure of industry to absorb the increasing labour force has created massive unemployment and deepening poverty crisis in urban centres. Inadequate provision of infrastructure and services to meet the growth in urban populations has resulted in inefficient spatial development of urban centres, the proliferation of squatter settlements, inadequate basic amenities including potable water, sanitation and waste disposal. Poor environmental sanitation has resulted in the upsurge of infectious diseases and deteriorating urban health. Urban populations in Africa are also the worst affected by newly emerging diseases, particularly HIV/AIDS. The poor bear a disproportionately large share of the problems due to their particular vulnerability to environmental and health risks. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations,possible impacts and adaptation

High population density, inadequate infrastructure and low adaptive capacity have made the urban population of Bangladesh highly vulnerable to climate change. Trends in climate and climate-related extreme events in five major cities have been analyzed in this paper to decipher the variability and ongoing changes in urban Bangladesh. An analysis of 55 years (1958–2012) of daily rainfall and temperature data using nonparametric statistical methods shows a significant increase in annual and seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in all five cities. A significant increase in climate-related extreme events, such as heavy rainfall events (>20 mm), hot days (>32 °C) and hot nights (>25 °C), is also observed. Climate model results suggest that these trends will continue through the twenty-first century. Vulnerability of urban livelihoods and physical structures to climate change is estimated by considering certainty and timing of impacts. It has been predicted that public health and urban infrastructures, viz. water and power supply, would be the imminent affected sectors in the urban areas of Bangladesh. Adaptation measures that can be adopted to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change are also discussed.     

Awareness on usage of contaminated groundwater around Perungudi dumpsite,Tamil Nadu,India

Groundwater is the major drinking water source both in urban and rural area. Mostly in urban and peri-urban areas of developing countries, groundwater is more susceptible to contamination due to urbanization. Therefore, the awareness of usage of groundwater has to be analysed to frame the policy measures and to suggest proper intervention programs. The community residing around Perungudi dumpsite, Tamil Nadu, India, has been chosen to assess the awareness on usage of groundwater using regression model. The groundwater flow and quality analysis assessed technically is in line with people’s perception on groundwater quality. The model results clearly indicate that the socio-economic status (β = 0.167) and distance (β = 0.305) play a major role in groundwater usage. Though 31.2 % of respondents reported that the water quality is bad within 1 km in the contaminated area, 45 % of low socio-economic categories depend on well water. This shows the unawareness of health issues due to the usage of contaminated water. Proper policies have to be framed, especially for the contaminated site to get rid of adverse health impacts due to long-term exposure of contaminated water.     

Co-evolution of wetland landscapes,flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).     

基于遥感的长江中下游城市群高温热浪风险评估

由全球气候变暖以及快速城市化引发的极端高温热浪事件频发现象已经影响到人类的生产和生活。利用多源卫星遥感数据和社会经济统计资料,构建基于"高温危险性-社会经济脆弱性-风险适应性"的高温热浪风险评估体系,获取2017年长江中下游城市群250 m分辨率的典型高温热浪事件风险评估结果。结果表明:热浪风险等级高值区主要分布在城市群中心城市以及其他城市中心城区,主要是较高的城市高温和社会经济脆弱性共同作用结果,围绕中心城区向外扩散,风险等级呈逐渐降低趋势。大城市虽具有更好的高温适应性,但离应对城市化导致的高温危险性和脆弱性还显得不足,从高风险区域面积来看,长三角城市群热浪风险高于长江中游城市群,主要与城市化水平以及人口聚集程度有关。通过多源遥感信息,获取高分辨率的城市群高温热浪风险空间分布特征,能为城市化过程中城市有效应对高温风险,加强区域防灾减灾提供科学参考。     

快速城市化背景下的防洪减灾对策研究

城市化改变了洪涝灾害风险的孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体的脆弱性,相应地,洪涝灾害的风险也随之加大了。在这种大环境下,采取合理可行的防洪减灾对策来降低洪涝风险就变得非常重要了。笔者认为应采取工程措施和非工程措施相结合的防洪减灾对策,工程措施方面主要包括提高防洪堤的防洪标准、提高城市排水能力、提高城市广场和绿地的占地面积、铺设楼顶蓄水池和地下蓄水池,非工程措施方面主要包括做好防洪规划、加强防洪评价,进行洪涝灾害风险分析,加强洪水预报预警工作,普及城市居民的防灾意识。     

Model-based analysis of urban settlement process in eco-sensitive area of developing country: a study with special reference to hills of an Indian city

Rapid and unplanned expansion of a city into its eco-sensitive areas like hills, wetlands, and forests is becoming a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Understanding the process and causes of such unplanned urban expansion is of paramount importance for framing sustainable urban development policies. This paper presents a modelling concept that relates urban settlement in such eco-sensitive areas with potential socio-economic, demographic and geographical factors. The model is applied to an Indian city Guwahati, which is experiencing serious environmental degradation due to unplanned urban settlement in its eco-sensitive hilly areas. While topographical and settlement data were derived using satellite data in GIS platform, all other necessary data were collected from relevant government organizations. On validation of the multi-linear regression model, the coefficient of determination and the root mean square error are obtained as 0.938 and 1.7, respectively. Model results show that geographical parameters are less influencing as compared to the other socio-economic and demographic factors. Sensitivity analysis of urban settlements in hills of Guwahati city carried out with respect to the considered factors reveals that land value and free space availability in the surrounding area of a hill are the most sensitive parameters. This indicates that city development plans should give more importance to outward spatial expansion in plain areas with regulated land value and zoning scheme to minimize unauthorized settlement in eco-sensitive hilly areas of Guwahati city.     

Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

The paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or man-made) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US35 million (2005) to US35 million (2005) to US10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finer-resolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses.     

A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant questions about the vulnerability of the human-environment system to global change. Scenarios were constructed for a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate. These scenarios were used as inputs in a range of ecosystem models in order to assess the response of ecosystem function as well as the changes in the services they provide. The framework was used to relate the impacts of changing ecosystem service provision for four sectors in relation to each other, and to combine them with a simple, but generic index for societal adaptive capacity. By allowing analysis of different sectors, regions and development pathways, the vulnerability assessment provides a basis for discussion between stakeholders and policymakers about sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

湖南城市洪涝易损性诊断与评估

首先从孕育洪涝灾害的环境变异性、社会经济灾敏性、城市土地利用对洪涝的放大作用，防洪标准和人为设障等方面对湖南城市洪涝的易损性进行了总体诊断。然后，选取人口密度、工业产值密度、道路网密度、排水管道密度、建成区绿地率等指标，运用模糊综合评判对之进行了定量评估。将全省城市洪涝的易损性程度划分为5个等级；高度易损性，较高度易损性、中度易损性、较低度易损性、低度易损性。研究结果表明：湖南城市洪涝易损性程度总体水平高，因此，湖南洪涝防治要从以农村为重点转向以城市为重点，加大城市洪涝治理力度；湖南城市洪涝易损性程度等级与城市规模之间没有对应关系，因此，湖南城市洪涝防治应因地制宜。     

The role of urban green infrastructure in mitigating land surface temperature in Bobo-Dioulasso,Burkina Faso

Green infrastructure in developed countries has been used as a climate change adaptation strategy to lower increased temperatures in cities. But, the use of green infrastructure to provide ecosystem services and increase resilience is largely overlooked in climate change and urban policies in the developing world. This study analyzed the role of urbanization and green infrastructure on urban surface temperatures in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, in sub-Saharan Africa. We use available geospatial data and techniques to spatially and temporally explore urbanization and land surface temperatures (LSTs) over 20 years. The effect of specific green infrastructure areas in the city on LSTs was also analyzed. Results show increased urbanization rates and increased temperature trends across time and space. But, LST in green infrastructure areas was indeed lower than adjacent impervious, urbanized areas. Seasonal phenological differences due to rainfall patterns, available planting space, and site limitations should be accounted for to maximize temperature reduction benefits. We discuss an approach on how study findings and urban and peri-urban agriculture and forestry are being used for policy uptake and formulation in the field of climate change, food security, and urbanization by the municipal government in this city in Burkina Faso.     

Heat waves and floods in urban areas: a policy-oriented review of ecosystem services

Urbanisation is increasing and today more than a half of the world’s population lives in urban areas. Cities, especially those where urbanisation is un-planned or poorly planned, are increasingly vulnerable to hydro-meteorological hazards such as heat waves and floods. Urban areas tend to degrade the environment, fragmenting and isolating ecosystems, compromising their capacity to provide services. The regulating role of ecosystems in buffering hydro-meteorological hazards and reducing urban vulnerability has not received adequate policy attention until now. Whereas there is a wide body of studies in the specialised biological and ecological literature about particular urban ecosystem features and the impacts of hazards upon people and infrastructures, there is no policy-driven overview looking holistically at the ways in which ecosystem features can be managed by cities to reduce their vulnerability to hazards. Using heat waves and floods as examples, this review article identifies the aggravating factors related to urbanisation, the various regulating ecosystem services that buffer cities from hydro-meteorological impacts as well as the impacts of the hazards on the ecosystem. The review also assesses how different cities have attempted to manage related ecosystem services and draws policy-relevant conclusions.     

Recent changes in flood preparedness of private households and businesses in Germany

Using the focusing event framework, a comprehensive analysis of private households’ and businesses’ preparedness was undertaken in the aftermath of the 2002 and 2006 flood events on the Elbe River in Germany. In August 2002, preparedness of households (n = 235) and businesses (n = 103) was low: 30% of the households and 54% of the businesses took no precautionary measures before the flood event. Many undertaken emergency measures were ineffective, since only 26% of all households knew how to react when the flood warning came, and only 9% of businesses had an emergency plan in place. Due to this extreme flood, double-loop learning occurred in many households and businesses, so that many did implement precautionary measures. The distribution of adopted precautionary measures for households fits well to Preisendörfer’s low-cost hypothesis, but does not apply for businesses. Only 10% of the households (n = 112), but still 29% of the businesses (n = 41) were unprepared before the flood in 2006. Significant improvement in flood preparedness activities is still necessary. Particularly for businesses, regulatory programs and programs encouraging proactive behaviour should be implemented. The focusing event framework proofed to be a useful tool for a differentiated analysis of the responses to and learning due to a disaster also in the commercial and private sector.     

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area,The Netherlands: enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk communication affects citizens’ risk perceptions and responses. The study is situated in a delta area with substantial geographic variations in the occurrence and potential impact of flood risk, which has led to initiatives to make the area more “climate proof.” We developed a research model that examines individual differences in processing information about climate change related flood risk, based on the postulate that individuals often make an implicit trade-off between motivation to know “what is real” and motivation to maintain prior beliefs. A field experiment, embedded in a survey (n = 1887), sought to test out how the participants responded to risk frames in which a story on flood was either or not combined with climate change information. The results show that it was possible to increase the participants’ local climate risk perception in combination with increased motivation for flood damage prevention, despite a certain level of climate change skepticism. A general implication of our study is that relevant and diagnostic information about local climate-related flood risks can stimulate citizens’ need to know “what’s real” and their willingness to take responsibility for preparedness.     

Evaluating the effect of flood damage-reducing measures: a case study of the unembanked area of Rotterdam,the Netherlands

Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has initiated discussions in the flood management community on how to effectively manage flood risks. In the Netherlands, the framework of multi-layer safety (MLS) has been introduced to support this risk-based approach. The MLS framework consists of three layers: (i) prevention, (ii) spatial planning and (iii) evacuation. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate measures in the second layer, such as wet proofing, dry proofing or elevating buildings. The methodology uses detailed land-use data for the area around the city of Rotterdam (up to building level) that has recently become available. The vulnerability of these detailed land-use classes to flooding is assessed using the stage–damage curves from different international models. The methodology is demonstrated using a case study in the unembanked area of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, as measures from the second layer may be particularly effective there. The results show that the flood risk in the region is considerable: EUR 36 million p.a. A large part (almost 60 %) of this risk results from industrial land use, emphasising the need to give this category more attention in flood risk assessments. It was found that building level measures could substantially reduce flood risks in the region because of the relatively low inundation levels of buildings. Risk to residential buildings would be reduced by 40 % if all buildings would be wet-proofed, by 89 % if all buildings would be dry-proofed and elevating buildings over 100 cm would render the risk almost zero. While climate change could double the risk in 2100, such building level measures could easily nullify this effect. Despite the high potential of such measures, actual implementation is still limited. This is partly caused by the lack of knowledge regarding these measures by most Dutch companies and the legal impossibility for municipalities to enforce most of these measures as they would go beyond the building codes established at the national level.     

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Urban Environmental Management: Some Evidence from Hanoi, Vietnam

In recent years flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries have rapidly been increasing. It is now an important contributor to the national economy and urban growth in scores of developing countries. Rapid urbanization in these countries is leading to many problems in the cities. Existing urban infrastructure and municipal services have been unable to cope with the increased demand arising from growing population and rapid economic growth. Consequently, the environment in these cities has deteriorated alarmingly. This paper assesses the role of FDI in urban environmental management (UEM) by analyzing the linkages between them for Hanoi City in Vietnam. The paper's analysis and findings are presented under three main themes: one, FDI, employment and income; two, FDI and environmental degradation; and three, potential of utilizing FDI for the provision of urban environmental infrastructure and services (UEI&S) in order to improve the urban environment. Both primary and secondary source data have been used. Policy implications of the research findings are drawn from the perspective of sustainable development.     

Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe

Over the next century, society will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of global change (e.g. pollution, land use changes, and climate change). Multiple scenarios provide us with a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate (i.e. exposure) and allow us to assess the response of ecosystems and changes in the services they provide (i.e. potential impacts). Since vulnerability to global change is less when society is able to adapt, it is important to provide decision makers with tools that will allow them to assess and compare the vulnerability of different sectors and regions to global change, taking into account exposure and sensitivity, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper presents a method that allows quantitative spatial analyses of the vulnerability of the human-environment system on a European scale. It is a first step towards providing stakeholders and policy makers with a spatially explicit portfolio of comparable projections of ecosystem services, providing a basis for discussion on the sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources.