Decision making framework for application of forest countermeasures in the long term after the Chernobyl accident

After the ChNPP accident a very large part of the territories covered by natural and artificial forests are contaminated with long-lived radionuclides, especially 137Cs. To protect people against exposure associated with forest contamination in the most affected regions of the NIS countries, countermeasures have been developed and recommended for the forest management. The paper presents a decision making framework to optimise forest countermeasures in the long term after the ChNPP accident. The approach presented is based on the analysis of the main exposure pathways and application of radiological, socio-economical and ecological criteria for the selection of optimal countermeasures strategies. Because of the diversity of these criteria modern decision support technologies based on multi-attributive analysis were applied. The results of the application of this approach are presented in a selected study area (Novozybkov district, Bryansk region, Russian Federation). The results prove and emphasize the need for a flexible technique to provide the optimised forest countermeasures taking into account radioecological, social and economic features of contaminated forests.     

Short and long term dispersion patterns of radionuclides in the atmosphere around the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

The Chernobyl accident and unfortunately the recent accident at the Fukushima 1 Nuclear Power Plant are the most serious accidents in the history of the nuclear technology and industry. Both of them have a huge and prolonged impact on environment as well as human health. Therefore, any technological developments and strategies that could diminish the consequences of such unfortunate events are undisputedly the most important issues of research. Numerical simulations of dispersion of radionuclides in the atmosphere after an accidental release can provide with a reliable prediction of the path of the plume. In this study we present a short (one month) and a long (11 years) term statistical study for the Fukushima 1 Nuclear Power Plant to estimate the most probable dispersion directions and plume structures of radionuclides on local scale using a Gaussian dispersion model. We analyzed the differences in plume directions and structures in case of typical weather/circulation pattern and provided a statistical-climatological method for a “first-guess” approximation of the dispersion of toxic substances. The results and the described method can support and used by decision makers in such important cases like the Fukushima accident.     

Traps in and of our minds: relationships between human logic,dialectical traps and social-ecological traps

Social-ecological traps are theorized to be present when human actions affect feedbacks and drivers in social-ecological systems, which, in turn, lead to regime shifts that may alter ecosystem capacity to generate services on which human wellbeing depends, and this, in turn, triggers societal responses, where actors and institutions interact with ecological dynamics and unwittingly lock development into a vulnerable pathway. The key dynamic in this theorization seems to be that human action often predicates or initiates the series of cascading affects that determine the presence of, and, perhaps, the effectiveness of, social-ecological traps. However, what drives human action in this context? What logic, assumptions, decisions, world views, and other processes are implicated in this configuration? This paper first briefly reviews ecological identity and the problems of anthropocentricism, human exceptionalism, and human exemptionalism and introduces the term ecological disenfranchisement. Building upon this, the author invokes Horn’s logic and dialectical traps as a lens for understanding human roles and the prevalence of issues with ecological identities, within social ecological traps. Drilling further down, the paper illustrates these traps with short vignettes, in each case, attempting to link the human logical traps with larger system dynamics. Finally, the author proposes a chain of reasoning to serve as an example of how the presence of human logic traps (or entrapment) in a number of different spheres has an impact upon the larger system, and, perhaps, even predicts entrapment of the larger system. Future efforts to either understand social-ecological traps or navigate away or out of them must first take stock of the human logical traps that actors within the systems are influenced by, and that influence the large system(s).This paper argues that failing to account for human traps within will render most efforts to avoid or escape social-ecological traps futile.     

Geo-based model of intrinsic resilience to climate change: an approach to nature-based solution

A substantial amount of researches have been done on the understanding and assessment of resilience from multiple perspectives, e.g., ecological, social, economic, and disaster management; however, recent international approach is trending toward more systematic and comprehensive risk assessment processes. Pivotal element of such approach is to emphasizing on promoting resilience in the face of climate change impacts. Conceptualization and identification of parameters to assess climate change resilience is one of the remaining challenges that academia is facing. Reviewing the principles of the climate change resilience highlighted in the literature, the goal of this study is to introduce a theoretical model about the climate change resilience concept to facilitate and enhance future climate change resilience-related researches. The model proposed in this study is named as the climate change resilience of place (C-CROP) model, a geo-based model which is designed to assess climate change resilience for any geographic region with an approach to the incorporation of nature-based solution (NBS). C-CROP model considers vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity to climate change on one side; another side is co-benefit, climate proofing, and disservices of proposed NBS. An operational framework of the C-CROP model is also proposed, that allows spatially explicit assessment of climate change resilience in real world by developing an indicator-based framework and comprehensive mapping using the geospatial approach. Therefore, this model includes vulnerability hotspots identification; better understanding of the pathways of resilience; and solutions (i.e., NBS) to infer the impacts and effectiveness of resilience-building interventions.

     

Modelling the resilience of Australian savanna systems to grazing impacts.

Savannas occur across all of northern Australia and are extensively used as rangelands. A recent surge in live cattle exports to Southeast Asia has caused excessive grazing impacts in some areas, especially near watering points. An important ecological and management question is "how resilient are savanna ecosystems to grazing disturbances?" Resilience refers to the ability of an ecosystem to remain in its current state (resist change) and return to this state (recover) if disturbed. Resilience responses can be measured using field data. These responses can then be modelled to predict the likely resistance and recovery of savannas to grazing impacts occurring under different climatic conditions. Two approaches were used to model resilience responses. First, a relatively simple mathematical model based on a sigmoid response function was used. This model proved useful for comparing the relative resilience of different savanna ecosystems, but was limited to ecosystems and conditions for which data were available. Second, a complex process model, SAVANNA, was parameterised to simulate the structure and function of Australian savannas. Simulations were run for 50 years at two levels of grazing to evaluate resistance and then for another 50 years with no grazing to evaluate recovery. These runs predicted that savanna grasslands were more resistant to grazing (changed less) than red-loam woodlands, which recovered relatively slowly from grazing impacts. The SAVANNA model also predicted that these woodlands would recover slightly slower under the climate change scenario projected for northern Australia.     

Quantitative assessment of the long term behaviour of 90Sr in Lake Uruskul,Southern Urals,Russia

The present paper is aimed at assessing the long term behaviour of 90Sr migration from water to bottom sediments of Lake Uruskul, Southern Urals, Russia. The lake was contaminated following the nuclear accident at the Mayak nuclear complex in 1957 (the Kyshtym accident). Some transfer parameters relevant to the behaviour of 90Sr in the water-sediment system were evaluated: a) the radionuclide migration velocity from the water column to the bottom sediment, b) the radionuclide migration rate from bottom sediment to water, and c) the radionuclide migration rate from bottom sediment to deep sediment. The estimated values of the above parameters were 6.4 x 10(-1) m s(-1), 5.7 x 10(-10) s(-1) and 5.2 x 10(-10) s(-1), respectively. These values were compared with data obtained for some Italian lakes contaminated by 90Sr after the nuclear weapons tests fallout. The relatively low radionuclide migration from water to sediment of these lakes is reflected by the values of the ratio migration velocity/migration rate from sediment to water (4 m and 12 m) that are significantly lower than the corresponding value in the Russian lake (112 m). The peculiar hydrochemical conditions of Lake Uruskul (high pH, high mineralisation, etc.) are considered to be responsible for the high radionuclide migration from water to sediment.     

Investigating the malleable socioeconomic resilience pathway to urban cohesion: a case of Taipei metropolitan area

It is known that globalization has led first- and second-tier cities’ urban restructuring trajectories, excreted pressures, and caused tremendous socioeconomic volatility. This resulted in marginalized communities in dire of social empowerment, employment structure variance, and industry sectoral adjustment. Moreover, recent successive climate and health crisis unfolded and affirmed the state of our urban incompetence to sustain socioeconomic resilience or otherwise; lacking swift responses in providing critical management and services, cites are facing multifaceted challenges. Urban well-being and resilience are at stake. Although the environmental and health dimensional effects are apparent, this study ascertains that the transept multi-scalar analysis within the urban socioeconomic structure is crucial in sustaining core resilience to foster health and well-being of the community. As an integral part of the investigation, the revised DPSIR assessment framework is applied to evaluate the sectoral shift; spatial structure disarray and urban codependence degree are examined within the Taipei metropolitan area (TMA), a medium size but densely populated metropolitan area in Taiwan. The place-based DPSIR analysis ascertained the states and impacts in TMA: (1) A population decline speeded the restructuring of the urban core, while the impact of demographic aging and shrinkage rate mandates proper management and planning responses to the decline process; (2) the socioeconomic state effect is determined but does not critically affect the periphery zone, while an uneven demographic shift within the urban core necessitates dynamic adjustment responses to appropriately provide intergenerational services; (3) the uneven sector redistribution stimulated the core’s spatial and structural inter-dependency with peripheral zones, requiring governance with tighter cross-administration cooperation among respective public sectors; and (4) facing the sector/temporal and demographic pressure, urban cohesiveness in the TMA is greatly affected, which in turn disrupts the resilience pathway toward a cohesion. The study ascertained that the revised DPSIR framework could provide cities facing pressing socioeconomic drivers with effective analysis to allocate pressures, states, and impacts and formulate the necessary responses. To assure the socioeconomic resilience and urban cohesiveness, planning policy should carefully monitor and evaluate socio-demographic and sector redistribution factors to promote the urban resilience.

     

Extension of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for long term dose assessment of high level nuclear waste disposal sites to uncertainties in the human behaviour

Biosphere dose conversion factors are computed for the French high-level geological waste disposal concept and to illustrate the combined probabilistic and deterministic approach. Both ¹³⁵Cs and ⁷⁹Se are used as examples. Probabilistic analyses of the system considering all parameters, as well as physical and societal parameters independently, allow quantification of their mutual impact on overall uncertainty. As physical parameter uncertainties decreased, for example with the availability of further experimental and field data, the societal uncertainties, which are less easily constrained, particularly for the long term, become more and more significant. One also has to distinguish uncertainties impacting the low dose portion of a distribution from those impacting the high dose range, the latter having logically a greater impact in an assessment situation. The use of cumulative probability curves allows us to quantify probability variations as a function of the dose estimate, with the ratio of the probability variation (slope of the curve) indicative of uncertainties of different radionuclides. In the case of ¹³⁵Cs with better constrained physical parameters, the uncertainty in human behaviour is more significant, even in the high dose range, where they increase the probability of higher doses. For both radionuclides, uncertainties impact more strongly in the intermediate than in the high dose range. In an assessment context, the focus will be on probabilities of higher dose values. The probabilistic approach can furthermore be used to construct critical groups based on a predefined probability level and to ensure that critical groups cover the expected range of uncertainty.     

Landscape changes and environmental quality: the evolution of land vulnerability and potential resilience to degradation in Italy

Resilience, considered as the ability of a system to absorb and compensate pressures derived from human and natural systems, is a topic of interest in the Mediterranean region whose landscape is the joint result of social, economic and environmental factors. The present study analyses the changes in the Italian landscape over two periods (1960–1990 and 1990–2010) of the last 50 years through a composite index of environmental resilience and vulnerability to land degradation. Results indicate that the spatial distribution of this index has been considerably changed from a relatively simple geography (mainly reflecting a latitude gradient) to a more complex pattern. The level of vulnerability of southern Italian land maintained quite stable while increasing significantly in Northern and Central Italy. The (potential) resilience level decreased over time in Central and Northern Italy while growing moderately in Southern Italy. This means that important processes of environmental changes impacting landscape resilience occurred with a different spatial trend in Italy. The composite index derived from vulnerability and potential resilience estimates at the regional scale revealed crucial to map over time the increase of surface land exposed to desertification risk. Results support the adoption of measures promoting a sustainable land management in environmentally vulnerable land with low potential to resilience.     

Modelling radioactivity in the Irish Sea: From discharge to dose

In order to support authorised discharges of low level radioactive liquid effluent into coastal regions, mathematical models are required to robustly predict radiological impacts on critical groups of current and proposed changes to liquid discharges. The grid model presented here simulates the long term dispersion and transport of radioactivity discharged from the Sellafield site in Cumbria, UK, and the subsequent exposure of critical groups in Cumbria and across the Irish Sea in Northern Ireland. The fine grid of the model allows a good resolution of the seabed sediment distribution. This benefits the predictions for the last decades of low discharge level, when bed sediment can become a source of contamination by bringing back the legacy of past high discharges. This is highlighted by the dose comparison, where the predicted dose to Cumbria critical group follows well the dose estimated from environmental data during the low discharge level period.     

Biodiversity conservation: From ecosystem to the ecosystem approach

The possibility of implementing 12 principles of the ecosystem approach is considered with regard to the results of meetings of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and recent international forums. The importance of these principles for achieving the main goals of the CBD is shown, and the role of biosphere reserves in solving urgent problems of biodiversity conservation and sustainable development in adjoining territories of subjects of the Russian Federation is discussed.     

Institutional traps and vulnerability to changes in climate and flood regimes in Thailand

Vulnerabilities to floods in Thailand are changing as a result of many factors. Formal and informal institutions help shape exposure, sensitivity and capacities to respond of individuals, social groups and social-ecological systems. In this paper we draw on several case studies of flood events and flood-affected communities to first assess how current practices reflect various laws, procedures, programs and policies for managing floods and disasters and then explore the implications for dealing with additional challenges posed by climate change. Our analysis identifies several institutional traps which need to be overcome if vulnerability is to be reduced, namely capture of agendas by technical elites, single-level or centralized concentration of capacities, organizational fragmentation and overemphasis on reactive crisis management. Possible responses are to expand public participation in managing risks, build adaptive capacities at multiple levels and link them, integrate flood disaster management and climate change adaptation into development planning, prioritize risk reduction for socially vulnerable groups and strengthen links between knowledge and practice. Responses like these could help reduce vulnerabilities under current climate and flood regimes, while also improving capacities to handle the future which every way that unfolds.     

Building blocks of economic resilience to climate change: a south east Australian fisheries example

Climate change will impact on ecological, social, and economic elements of fisheries; however, the three are seldom considered in an integrated fashion. We develop a fishery-level assessment of economic resilience to climate change for the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery, a linked social–ecological system. We outline the main climate change forcing influences that link climate change to the fishery via changes in lobster abundance, distribution, and phenology. Using a bottom-up approach, we identify twelve economic attributes strongly related to the fisheries’ economic resilience to climate change. Resilience attributes are grouped according to the level of the economic domain (business, sectoral, and governance). Attributes are then evaluated to determine the overall economic resilience of the rock lobster fishery in the context of the specific nature of predicted climate change effects. We identify areas of low resilience in the economic sub-system for this fishery. Evaluating the economic resilience of regional fisheries using this integrated, interdisciplinary framework provides a practical, parsimonious, and conceptually sound basis for undertaking comprehensive and contextually tailored assessments of climate change impacts and economic vulnerability. The framework can be extended to include a broader range of climate change impacts and the social domain of the human sub-system.     

Framing the flood: a media analysis of themes of resilience in the 2011 Brisbane flood

In the wake of the flood that affected Brisbane, Australia, in January 2011, public attention turned to the causes of the event and lessons for minimizing the impacts of future floods. The news media was an important vehicle for understanding and internalizing the 2011 Brisbane flood. Examining how the flood was framed in the media is, therefore, useful to understand broad public perception of floods. We undertook a systematic newspaper analysis during a one-year period to explore media framings of the flood, focused on learning as an aspect of resilience in relation to two themes: (1) perceived links between the flood and climate change and (2) perceived roles of government in managing the flood. We show that media coverage of the flood reinforces aspects of resilience by acknowledging community spirit, self-reliance and the importance of sharing experiences for learning; articulating the risk of extreme events in a changing climate; and highlighting regional management trade-offs. Much of the discourse is likely to inhibit resilience, however, by casting the flood in terms of blame and political opportunity and paying inadequate attention to longer-term aspects of regional resilience. The limited learning observed to date may highlight a need for other mechanisms and actors to lead learning processes. As policy related to the 2011 Brisbane flood, and extreme events more generally, is influenced by the public discourse, it is important to understand the nuances of communication around these events and the media’s role in reinforcing or changing perceptions.     

Toward an integrated marine protected areas policy: connecting the global to the local

Policy development related to marine protected areas (MPAs) occurs at three levels: international, national, and local. Recent developments with MPAs highlight their close links to broader national-level park and protected area policies, which in turn take their lead from initiatives and recommendations initiated, and increasingly dictated, by international organizations. Local-level inputs to MPA policies have tended to be limited to the immediate local area context despite the vital importance of community-level support and knowledge in meeting broader regional goals of marine conservation tied to networked MPAs. In this paper, we highlight the mechanisms to facilitate cooperation and communication among international, national, and local levels of policy and practice needed to address this deficit. These include the creation of a social network of institutions that both internationalizes and localizes MPA policy development, facilitating a more meaningful engagement of local people through their legitimate participation in national and international MPA gatherings. In addition, mechanisms to formalize partnerships, feedback information, resolve conflicts, and report accountabilities are needed. The success of the latter will depend on the level of recognition and support given to community-level institutions as opposed to the suite of technical training and short-term project-based interventions that have characterized local support over recent decades.     

From climate research to climate compatible development: experiences and progress in the Netherlands

Over the past decades, significant experience has been gained in demand-driven research on climate change in many countries. In the Netherlands, a competitive call for proposals for large research programmes at the interface between policy, science and private sector was issued in 2001. Members of the Dutch climate research community proved they were able to develop two large research programme proposals which were funded: ‘Climate changes Spatial Planning’ and its successor ‘Knowledge for Climate’. The programmes ran from 2004 to 2012 and from 2008 to 2014, respectively. Both programmes can be considered as a 10-year research programme experiment to develop knowledge about both the climate system and climate compatible development by crossing disciplines, institutions and national research funding strategies. Within this 10-year period, a trend can be observed in which a ‘top-down’ climate impact assessment approach is increasingly combined with a ‘bottom-up’ approach. Based on the 15 articles presented in this special issue (and others), we argue that this development has enriched both fundamental and applied research on climate adaptation. Despite the predominantly Dutch-oriented scope of the presented research, we believe that such experiences can be of international interest. Climate adaptation research finds itself in between global systems knowledge on the one hand and practical needs and experiences at the local, regional and national level on the other. This demands the utmost from all actors involved to enable an efficient and constructive flow and use of knowledge and expertise.