Local Arctic air pollution: Sources and impacts

Local emissions of Arctic air pollutants and their impacts on climate, ecosystems and health are poorly understood. Future increases due to Arctic warming or economic drivers may put additional pressures on the fragile Arctic environment already affected by mid-latitude air pollution. Aircraft data were collected, for the first time, downwind of shipping and petroleum extraction facilities in the European Arctic. Data analysis reveals discrepancies compared to commonly used emission inventories, highlighting missing emissions (e.g. drilling rigs) and the intermittent nature of certain emissions (e.g. flaring, shipping). Present-day shipping/petroleum extraction emissions already appear to be impacting pollutant (ozone, aerosols) levels along the Norwegian coast and are estimated to cool and warm the Arctic climate, respectively. Future increases in shipping may lead to short-term (long-term) warming (cooling) due to reduced sulphur (CO₂) emissions, and be detrimental to regional air quality (ozone). Further quantification of local Arctic emission impacts is needed.     

Modeling the impacts of the Finnish Climate Strategy on air pollution

This paper presents an example of how air pollution models can be used together with energy system models to study the impacts of climate change mitigation strategies on air pollution. As many mitigation measures of greenhouse gases (GHGs) affect the use of fossil fuels in energy production, they can have important side-effects on other air pollution problems. This paper studies on a national scale the impacts of the planned GHG reduction measures on multiple air pollution problems in Finland, concentrating on acidification of forest soils and lakes, tropospheric ozone levels harmful to humans and vegetation and on emissions of fine particles. The air pollutant emission scenarios with the alternative energy choices are calculated for about 200 large point sources, assuming the present emission limit legislation. Disperse emissions are treated at municipality level. The analysis extends to the year 2020. The implementation of the Kyoto protocol in Finland would induce notable reductions of multiple air pollutant emissions and related environmental impacts. A 6–11% reduction in ecosystems threatened by acidification in Southern and Central Finland would be achieved with the Finnish Climate Strategy alone. Substantial improvement in ozone levels would be reached in all scenarios compared to the current situation. The measures of the Climate Strategy could reduce the harmful ozone levels by a further 3%. The measures of the Climate Strategy would not significantly affect the primary particulate emissions in the future because the emissions from large power plants are already effectively controlled. Contrary to the fuel choices of the large units, expanded use of small-scale wood combustion can result in considerable increases of both fine particulate and VOC emissions.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport

Emissions from land transport, and from road transport in particular, have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past, present and future emissions from land transport, of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality, on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation.In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however, pollutant emissions have been growing strongly, adversely affecting many populations. In addition, ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here.In the future, road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary, emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently, road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both, passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential, but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels, a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades.     

Estimation of economic costs of particulate air pollution from road transport in China

Valuation of health effects of air pollution is becoming a critical component of the performance of cost–benefit analysis of pollution control measures, which provides a basis for setting priorities for action. Beijing has focused on control of transport emission as vehicular emissions have recently become an important source of air pollution, particularly during Olympic games and Post-games. In this paper, we conducted an estimation of health effects and economic cost caused by road transport-related air pollution using an integrated assessment approach which utilizes air quality model, engineering, epidemiology, and economics. The results show that the total economic cost of health impacts due to air pollution contributed from transport in Beijing during 2004–2008 was 272, 297, 310, 323, 298 million US$ (mean value), respectively. The economic costs of road transport accounted for 0.52, 0.57, 0.60, 0.62, and 0.58% of annual Beijing GDP from 2004 to 2008. Average cost per vehicle and per ton of PM₁₀ emission from road transport can also be estimated as 106 US $/number and 3584 US $ t^?1, respectively. These findings illustrate that the impact of road transport contributed particulate air pollution on human health could be substantial in Beijing, whether in physical and economic terms. Therefore, some control measures to reduce transport emissions could lead to considerable economic benefit.     

Impact assessment of waste management options in Singapore

This paper describes the application of life cycle assessment for evaluating various waste management options in Singapore, a small-island city state. The impact assessment method by SimaPro is carried out for comparing the potential environmental impacts of waste treatment options including landfilling, incineration, recycling, and composting. The inventory data include gases and leachate from landfills, air emissions and energy recovery from incinerators, energy (and emission) savings from recycling, composting gases, and transport pollution. The impact assessment results for climate change, acidification, and ecotoxicity show that the incineration of materials imposes considerable harm to both human health and the environment, especially for the burning of plastics, paper/cardboard, and ferrous metals. The results also show that, although some amount of energy can be derived from the incineration of wastes, these benefits are outweighed by the air pollution (heavy metals and dioxins/furans) that incinerators produce. For Singapore, landfill gases and leachate generate minimal environmental damage because of the nation's policy to landfill only 10% of the total disposed wastes. Land transportation and separation of waste materials also pose minimal environmental damage. However, sea transportation to the landfill could contribute significantly to acidification because of the emissions of sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides from barges. The composting of horticultural wastes hardly imposes any environmental damage. Out of all the waste strategies, the recycling of wastes offers the best solution for environmental protection and improved human health for the nation. Significant emission savings can be realized through recycling.     

The sensitivity of modeled ozone to the temporal distribution of point, area, and mobile source emissions in the eastern United States

Ozone remains one of the most recalcitrant air pollution problems in the US. Hourly emissions fields used in air quality models (AQMs) generally show less temporal variability than corresponding measurements from continuous emissions monitors (CEM) and field campaigns would imply. If emissions control scenarios to reduce emissions at peak ozone forming hours are to be assessed with AQMs, the effect of emissions' daily variability on modeled ozone must be understood. We analyzed the effects of altering all anthropogenic emissions' temporal distributions by source group on 2002 summer-long simulations of ozone using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) v4.5 and the Carbon Bond IV (CBIV) chemical mechanism with 12 km resolution. We find that when mobile source emissions were made constant over the course of a day, 8-h maximum ozone predictions changed by ±7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in many urban areas on days when ozone concentrations greater than 80 ppbv were simulated in the base case. Increasing the temporal variation of point sources resulted in ozone changes of +6 and −6 ppbv, but only for small areas near sources. Changing the daily cycle of mobile source emissions produces substantial changes in simulated ozone, especially in urban areas at night; results suggest that shifting the emissions of NO_x from day to night, for example in electric powered vehicles recharged at night, could have beneficial impacts on air quality.     

Potential emissions reduction in road transport sector using biofuel in developing countries

Use of biofuels as transport fuel has high prospect in developing countries as most of them are facing severe energy insecurity and have strong agricultural sector to support production of biofuels from energy crops. Rapid urbanization and economic growth of developing countries have spurred air pollution especially in road transport sector. The increasing demand of petroleum based fuels and their combustion in internal combustion (IC) engines have adverse effect on air quality, human health and global warming. Air pollution causes respiratory problems, adverse effects on pulmonary function, leading to increased sickness absenteeism and induces high health care service costs, premature birth and even mortality. Production of biofuels promises substantial improvement in air quality through reducing emission from biofuel operated automotives. Some of the developing countries have started biofuel production and utilization as transport fuel in local market. This paper critically reviews the facts and prospects of biofuel production and utilization in developing countries to reduce environmental pollution and petro dependency. Expansion of biofuel industries in developing countries can create more jobs and increase productivity by non-crop marginal lands and wastelands for energy crops plantation.Contribution of India and China in biofuel industry in production and utilization can dramatically change worldwide biofuel market and leap forward in carbon cut as their automotive market is rapidly increasing with a souring proportional rise of GHG emissions.     

The impacts of combustion emissions on air quality and climate – From coal to biofuels and beyond

Combustion processes have inherent characteristics that lead to the release in the environment of both gaseous and particulate pollutants that have primary and secondary impacts on air quality, human health, and climate. The emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels and their atmospheric impacts are reviewed here with attention given to the emissions of the currently regulated pollutant gasses, primary aerosols, and secondary aerosol precursors as well as the emissions of non-regulated pollutants. Fuels ranging from coal, petroleum, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas, as well as the biofuels; ethanol, methanol, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), ethyl tertiary-butyl ether (ETBE), and biodiesel, are discussed in terms of the known air quality and climate impacts of the currently regulated pollutants. The potential importance of the non-regulated emissions of both gasses and aerosols in air quality issues and climate is also discussed with principal focus on aldehydes and other oxygenated organics, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and nitrated organics. The connection between air quality and climate change is also addressed with attention given to ozone and aerosols as potentially important greenhouse species.     

Air quality and health benefits from potential coal power plant closures in Texas

As power production from renewable energy and natural gas grows, closures of some coal-fired power plants in Texas become increasingly likely. In this study, the potential effects of such closures on air quality and human health were analyzed by linking a regional photochemical model with a health impacts assessment tool. The impacts varied significantly across 13 of the state’s largest coal-fired power plants, sometimes by more than an order of magnitude, even after normalizing by generation. While some power plants had negligible impacts on concentrations at important monitors, average impacts up to 0.5 parts per billion (ppb) and 0.2 µg/m³ and maximum impacts up to 3.3 ppb and 0.9 µg/m³ were seen for ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), respectively. Individual power plants impacted average visibility by up to 0.25 deciviews in Class I Areas. Health impacts arose mostly from PM_2.5 and were an order of magnitude higher for plants that lack scrubbers for SO₂. Rankings of health impacts were largely consistent across the base model results and two reduced form models. Carbon dioxide emissions were relatively uniform, ranging from 1.00 to 1.26 short tons/MWh, and can be monetized based on a social cost of carbon. Despite all of these unpaid externalities, estimated direct costs of each power plant exceeded wholesale power prices in 2016.

Implications: While their CO₂ emission rates are fairly similar, sharply different NO_x and SO₂ emission rates and spatial factors cause coal-fired power plants to vary by an order of magnitude in their impacts on ozone, particulate matter, and associated health and visibility outcomes. On a monetized basis, the air pollution health impacts often exceed the value of the electricity generated and are of similar magnitude to climate impacts. This suggests that both air pollution and climate should be considered if externalities are used to inform decision making about power-plant dispatch and retirement.     

Air quality co-benefits of subnational carbon policies

To mitigate climate change, governments ranging from city to multi-national have adopted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. While the location of GHG reductions does not affect their climate benefits, it can impact human health benefits associated with co-emitted pollutants. Here, an advanced modeling framework is used to explore how subnational level GHG targets influence air pollutant co-benefits from ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Two carbon policy scenarios are analyzed, each reducing the same total amount of GHG emissions in the Northeast US: an economy-wide Cap and Trade (CAT) program reducing emissions from all sectors of the economy, and a Clean Energy Standard (CES) reducing emissions from the electricity sector only. Results suggest that a regional CES policy will cost about 10 times more than a CAT policy. Despite having the same regional targets in the Northeast, carbon leakage to non-capped regions varies between policies. Consequently, a regional CAT policy will result in national carbon reductions that are over six times greater than the carbon reduced by the CES in 2030. Monetized regional human health benefits of the CAT and CES policies are 844% and 185% of the costs of each policy, respectively. Benefits for both policies are thus estimated to exceed their costs in the Northeast US. The estimated value of human health co-benefits associated with air pollution reductions for the CES scenario is two times that of the CAT scenario.

Implications: In this research, an advanced modeling framework is used to determine the potential impacts of regional carbon policies on air pollution co-benefits associated with ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Study results show that spatially heterogeneous GHG policies have the potential to create areas of air pollution dis-benefit. It is also shown that monetized human health benefits within the area covered by policy may be larger than the model estimated cost of the policy. These findings are of particular interest both as U.S. states work to develop plans to meet state-level carbon emissions reduction targets set by the EPA through the Clean Power Plan, and in the absence of comprehensive national carbon policy.     

Tracking the anthropogenic drivers of ecological impacts

Despite the pivotal role human factors (anthropogenic drivers) are presumed to play in global environmental change, substantial uncertainties and contradictory conclusions about them continue. We attempt to further discipline the human factors issue by estimating the effects of two anthropogenic drivers, population and affluence, on a wide variety of global environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, emissions of ozone depleting substances, and the ecological footprint. Population proportionately increases all types of impacts examined. Affluence typically increases impacts, but the specific effect depends on the type of impact. These findings refocus attention on population and material affluence as principal threats to sustainability and challenge predictions of an ameliorating effect of rising affluence on impacts.     

Wildfire and prescribed burning impacts on air quality in the United States

ABSTRACT

Air quality impacts from wildfires have been dramatic in recent years, with millions of people exposed to elevated and sometimes hazardous fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) concentrations for extended periods. Fires emit particulate matter (PM) and gaseous compounds that can negatively impact human health and reduce visibility. While the overall trend in U.S. air quality has been improving for decades, largely due to implementation of the Clean Air Act, seasonal wildfires threaten to undo this in some regions of the United States. Our understanding of the health effects of smoke is growing with regard to respiratory and cardiovascular consequences and mortality. The costs of these health outcomes can exceed the billions already spent on wildfire suppression. In this critical review, we examine each of the processes that influence wildland fires and the effects of fires, including the natural role of wildland fire, forest management, ignitions, emissions, transport, chemistry, and human health impacts. We highlight key data gaps and examine the complexity and scope and scale of fire occurrence, estimated emissions, and resulting effects on regional air quality across the United States. The goal is to clarify which areas are well understood and which need more study. We conclude with a set of recommendations for future research.     

Extensive aerosol optical properties and aerosol mass related measurements during TRAMP/TexAQS 2006 – Implications for PM compliance and planning

Extensive aerosol optical properties, particle size distributions, and Aerodyne quadrupole aerosol mass spectrometer measurements collected during TRAMP/TexAQS 2006 were examined in light of collocated meteorological and chemical measurements. Much of the evident variability in the observed aerosol-related air quality is due to changing synoptic meteorological situations that direct emissions from various sources to the TRAMP site near the center of the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) metropolitan area. In this study, five distinct long-term periods have been identified. During each of these periods, observed aerosol properties have implications that are of interest to environmental quality management agencies. During three of the periods, long range transport (LRT), both intra-continental and intercontinental, appears to have played an important role in producing the observed aerosol. During late August 2006, southerly winds brought super-micron Saharan dust and sea salt to the HGB area, adding mass to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) measurements, but apparently not affecting secondary particle growth or gas-phase air pollution. A second type of LRT was associated with northerly winds in early September 2006 and with increased ozone and sub-micron particulate matter in the HGB area. Later in the study, LRT of emissions from wildfires appeared to increase the abundance of absorbing aerosols (and carbon monoxide and other chemical tracers) in the HGB area. However, the greatest impacts on Houston PM_2.5 air quality are caused by periods with low-wind-speed sea breeze circulation or winds that directly transport pollutants from major industrial areas, i.e., the Houston Ship Channel, into the city center.     

Central power generation versus distributed generation – An air quality assessment in the South Coast Air Basin of California

This study assesses the air quality impacts of central power generation and compares them with the impacts of distributed generation (DG). The central power plant emissions factors used are from a newly installed combined cycle gas turbine system. Because location of power plants is a key parameter affecting air quality impacts, this study considers three potential locations for the installation of central power plants. Air quality impacts are evaluated for the South Coast Air Basin of California, in the year 2010, using a three-dimensional air quality model. Results are compared to air quality impacts from two potential DG scenarios to meet the same power demand as that of the central power plant case.Even though emissions from central generation are lower than emissions from the DG technology mix considered herein, central generation concentrates emissions in a small area, whereas DG spreads emissions throughout a larger cross-section of the air basin. As a result, air quality impacts from central generation are more significant than those from DG. The study also shows that assessment of air quality impacts from distributed and central generation should not only consider emissions levels, but also the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions and the air quality that results from atmospheric chemistry and transport – highly non-linear processes.Finally, analysis of population exposure to ozone and PM_2.5 shows that central generation located in coastal areas upwind from populated areas would cause the highest population exposure and even though emissions from central generation are considerably lower than DG emissions spread throughout the basin, results show that central generation causes a higher pollutant exposure than DG.     

Investigation of the influence of transport from oil and natural gas regions on elevated ozone levels in the northern Colorado front range

The Northern Colorado Front Range (NCFR) has been in exceedance of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) since 2004, which has led to much debate over the sources of ozone precursors to the region, as this area is home to both the Denver, CO, metropolitan area and the Denver–Julesburg Basin, which has experienced rapid growth of oil and natural gas (O&NG) operations and associated emissions. Several recent studies have reported elevated levels of atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as a result of O&NG emissions and the potential for significant ozone production from these emissions, despite implementation of stricter O&NG VOC emissions regulations in 2008. Approximately 88% of 1-hr elevated ozone events (>75 ppbv) occur during June–August, indicating that elevated ozone levels are driven by regional photochemistry. Analyses of surface ozone and wind observations from two sites, namely, South Boulder and the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory, both near Boulder, CO, show a preponderance of elevated ozone events associated with east-to-west airflow from regions with O&NG operations in the N-ESE, and a relatively minor contribution of transport from the Denver Metropolitan area to the SE-S. Transport from upwind areas associated with abundant O&NG operations accounts for on the order of 65% (mean for both sites) of 1-hr averaged elevated ozone levels, while the Denver urban corridor accounts for 9%. These correlations contribute to mounting evidence that air transport from areas with O&NG operation has a significant impact on ozone and air quality in the NCFR.

Implications: This article builds on several previous pieces of research that implied significant contributions from oil and natural gas emissions on ozone production in the Northern Colorado Front Range. By correlating increased ozone events with transport analyses we show that there is a high abundance of transport events with elevated ozone originating from the Denver–Julesburg oil and natural gas basin. These findings will help air quality regulators to better assess contributing sources to ozone production and in directing policies to curb ozone pollution in this region.     

A Pilot Indoor-Outdoor Study of Organic Particulate Matter and Particulate Mutagenicity

Abstract

Many large metropolitan areas experience elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone pollution during the summertime “smog season”. Local environmental or health agencies often need to make daily air pollution forecasts for public advisories and for input into decisions regarding abatement measures and air quality management. Such forecasts are usually based on statistical relationships between weather conditions and ambient air pollution concentrations. Multivariate linear regression models have been widely used for this purpose, and well-specified regressions can provide reasonable results. However, pollution-weather relationships are typically complex and nonlinear—especially for ozone—properties that might be better captured by neural networks. This study investigates the potential for using neural networks to forecast ozone pollution, as compared to traditional regression models. Multiple regression models and neural networks are examined for a range of cities under different climate and ozone regimes, enabling a comparative study of the two approaches. Model comparison statistics indicate that neural network techniques are somewhat (but not dramatically) better than regression models for daily ozone prediction, and that all types of models are sensitive to different weather-ozone regimes and the role of persistence in aiding predictions.     

Modeling to Evaluate Contribution of Oil and Gas Emissions to Air Pollution

Oil and gas production in the Western United States has increased considerably over the past 10 years. While many of the still limited oil and gas impact assessments have focused on potential human health impacts, the typically remote locations of production in the Intermountain West suggests that the impacts of oil and gas production on national parks and wilderness areas (Class I and II areas) could also be important. To evaluate this, we utilize the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) with a year-long modeling episode representing the best available representation of 2011 meteorology and emissions for the Western United States. The model inputs for the 2011 episodes were generated as part of the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS). The study includes a detailed assessment of oil and gas (O&G) emissions in Western States. The year-long modeling episode was run both with and without emissions from O&G production. The difference between these two runs provides an estimate of the contribution of the O&G production to air quality. These data were used to assess the contribution of O&G to the 8 hour average ozone concentrations, daily and annual fine particulate concentrations, annual nitrogen deposition totals and visibility in the modeling domain. We present the results for the Class I and II areas in the Western United States. Modeling results suggest that emissions from O&G activity are having a negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in our National Parks and Class I areas.

Implications: In this research, we use a modeling framework developed for oil and gas evaluation in the western United States to determine the modeled impacts of emissions associated with oil and gas production on air pollution metrics. We show that oil and gas production may have a significant negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in some national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States. Our findings are of particular interest to federal land managers as well as regulators in states heavy in oil and gas production as they consider control strategies to reduce the impact of development.     

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Implications: Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.     

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1–4°C and 1–5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

Implications:?Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1–5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).     

Atmospheric pollution in an urban environment by tree bark biomonitoring - part II: Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic tracing

The harmful effect of manmade particles on natural processes and human health is documented by a large number of studies showing a positive correlation between particulate matter (PM) concentration and health effects. Diminution of this health risk necessitates among others the precise knowledge of the particle sources, their physical and chemical properties and their dissemination in the environment. Pb isotope ratios have been successfully used during the past decades as tracers of anthropogenic Pb disseminated in the biosphere. Here we show that tree bark biomonitoring with lead (Pb), strontium (Sr) and neodymium (Nd) isotope ratios as tracers allow a thorough analysis of the impacts of industrial and other anthropogenic emissions on the urban environment. This is the first comprehensive multi-isotope tracer study of atmospheric pollution in an urban environment allowing to identify and to integrate the different plume paths of emissions in a digital map system. This innovative approach might become an important tool for environmental management and policy-making processes dealing especially with risks and surveillance of air quality in the urban environment.