“生物有效性测量”与“全沉积物毒性识别评估(TIE)”联用有效识别出沉积物中主要致毒污染物

沉积物中污染物种类繁多,准确判断其中产生生物毒性的主要来源是个难点,本文作者先采用TIE法初步判断出主要致毒污染物为有机物和重金属(毒性描述阶段(相I)),传统的毒性单位分析结果显示Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb和Zn主要致毒重金属,而为氯氰菊酯、氯氟氰菊酯、溴氰菊酯和氟虫腈为主要致毒有机物中(毒性鉴定阶段(相II))。采用4步分级提取法和Tenax提取法分析了重金属和有机物的生物有效性。生物有效性毒性单位分析更加准确地锁定了毒性主要贡献重金属为Zn、Ni和Pb,毒性主要贡献有机物为氯氰菊酯、氯氟氰菊酯和氟虫腈。沉积物的稀释降低了重金属的毒性并使其毒性贡献鉴定变得复杂,生物有效性测量可以有效地提高TIE结果的准确性。
精选自Xiaoyi Yi, Huizhen Li, Ping Ma and Jing You. Identifying the causes of sediment-associated toxicity in urban waterways in South China: Incorporating bioavailabillity-based measurements into whole-sediment toxicity identification evaluation. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 8, pages 1744–1750, August 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.2970
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.2970/full     

“生物有效性测量”与“全沉积物毒性识别评估(TIE)”联用有效识别出沉积物中主要致毒污染物

沉积物中污染物种类繁多,准确判断其中产生生物毒性的主要来源是个难点,本文作者先采用TIE法初步判断出主要致毒污染物为有机物和重金属(毒性描述阶段(相I)),传统的毒性单位分析结果显示Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb和Zn主要致毒重金属,而为氯氰菊酯、氯氟氰菊酯、溴氰菊酯和氟虫腈为主要致毒有机物中(毒性鉴定阶段(相II))。采用4步分级提取法和Tenax提取法分析了重金属和有机物的生物有效性。生物有效性毒性单位分析更加准确地锁定了毒性主要贡献重金属为Zn、Ni和Pb,毒性主要贡献有机物为氯氰菊酯、氯氟氰菊酯和氟虫腈。沉积物的稀释降低了重金属的毒性并使其毒性贡献鉴定变得复杂,生物有效性测量可以有效地提高TIE结果的准确性。
精选自Xiaoyi Yi, Huizhen Li, Ping Ma and Jing You. Identifying the causes of sediment-associated toxicity in urban waterways in South China: Incorporating bioavailabillity-based measurements into whole-sediment toxicity identification evaluation. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 8, pages 1744–1750, August 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.2970
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.2970/full     

“生物有效性测量”与“全沉积物毒性识别评估(TIE)”联用有效识别出沉积物中主要致毒污染物

沉积物中污染物种类繁多,准确判断其中产生生物毒性的主要来源是个难点,本文作者先采用TIE法初步判断出主要致毒污染物为有机物和重金属(毒性描述阶段(相I)),传统的毒性单位分析结果显示Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb和Zn主要致毒重金属,而为氯氰菊酯、氯氟氰菊酯、溴氰菊酯和氟虫腈为主要致毒有机物中(毒性鉴定阶段(相II))。采用4步分级提取法和Tenax提取法分析了重金属和有机物的生物有效性。生物有效性毒性单位分析更加准确地锁定了毒性主要贡献重金属为Zn、Ni和Pb,毒性主要贡献有机物为氯氰菊酯、氯氟氰菊酯和氟虫腈。沉积物的稀释降低了重金属的毒性并使其毒性贡献鉴定变得复杂,生物有效性测量可以有效地提高TIE结果的准确性。
精选自Xiaoyi Yi, Huizhen Li, Ping Ma and Jing You. Identifying the causes of sediment-associated toxicity in urban waterways in South China: Incorporating bioavailabillity-based measurements into whole-sediment toxicity identification evaluation. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 8, pages 1744–1750, August 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.2970
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.2970/full     

Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States

This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973-2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects.     

Acute toxicity and histopathology study of a galactose-specific lectin from the seeds of Tetracarpidium conophorum (African walnut) (Hutch and Dalz)

A lactose-binding lectin (TCL) was purified from the seeds of African walnut, Tetracarpidium conophorum, and acute toxicity studies of the lectin were carried out with Swiss albino male mice. Animals were administered doses of TCL from 500 to 2500?mg?kg^?1 body weight (b.wt.) orally while intraperitoneally the dose ranged from 10 to 600?mg?kg^?1 b.wt. Animals were then assessed for organ and body weight changes, mortality, and histopathology. TCL did not cause any observable toxicity via the oral route; however, when administered intraperitoneally, TCL elicited toxicity with an LD₅₀ of 50?mg?kg^?1 b.wt. Death from intoxication was preceded by convulsion, hypoactivity, salivation, ataxia, and weakness. The animals given lethal doses of the lectin showed profound respiratory depression which was judged to be the primary cause of death. Histopathological analysis indicated that the lungs, liver, and spleen were adversely affected while the kidney and other organs were essentially normal. In all the affected organs, the severity of toxicity was dose-dependent as the effect of the lectin became more pronounced with increase of the dose administered.     

Mortality estimates from repeated visual censuses of a parrotfish (Sparisoma viride) population: demographic implications

Repeated visual censuses of different categories (juveniles, females, territorial and group males) of the stoplight parrotfish (Sparisoma viride, a protogynous hermaphrodite) over a 3-year period indicated a relatively stable size and structure of the adult population. This allowed estimates of size-specific mortality, sex change, and territory acquisition probabilities from previously reported growth rates. Comparison of the predicted number of survivors, sex changers, and territory take overs with field observations indicates that our estimates are quite reliable. However, rather large differences in mortality are obtained for the largest three size classes (>25 cm), which may be due to reduced accuracy of length estimates of large fish. A pooled mortality for these classes is therefore suggested as a more realistic estimate. The life-history implications of our findings are investigated by comparing the predicted survival and future reproductive success of fish that change sex at different sizes. Ten percent of the adults reach an age of ca. 17 years, once a length of 20 cm is attained, as predicted from the pooled estimates. Calculations based on these estimates indicate that the predicted reproductive output of a 15-year-old fish (2500 matings) is the same for early (i.e. at 20 cm) and late (>30 cm) sex changers and for an average fish subject to the estimated daily sex change and territory acquisition probabilities. These findings suggest that S. viride individuals are able to flexibly adjust the timing of sex change in an adaptive way to unpredictable local conditions. However, independent mortality estimates are needed to corroborate our present findings. Received: 2 January 1997 / Accepted: 27 January 1997     

盐酸四环素对秀丽线虫(C.elegans)的急性与多代毒性研究

环境中抗生素的生态安全性受到越来越多的关注.以盐酸四环素(TCH)为对象、秀丽线虫(C.elegans)为模式生物,开展了急性与多代毒性研究.急性毒性实验表明盐酸四环素对秀丽线虫的LC50为167.5mg·L-(112h)、82.9mg·L-(124h),与现有四环素毒性数据相比,秀丽线虫对TCH的毒性更为敏感.分别对虫卵和成虫进行多代毒性的研究表明,盐酸四环素环境水平(μg·L-1)下的暴露,对秀丽线虫母代(P0)、子一代(F1)和子二代(F2)的逆向运动抑制率(RMI)、身体弯曲频率(BBFI)、Omega运动抑制率(OMI)3个行为学指标均具有显著的抑制作用,而且行为学指标比死亡率更加敏感,虫卵比成虫更加敏感.多代毒性作用的结果表明,盐酸四环素对P0、F1和F2产生的毒性存在差异,对于RMI和BBFI,其毒性作用强度为P0>F2>F1;对于OMI,其毒性作用强度为P0>F1≈F2.代际之间没有显示世代毒性逐代恶化或逐代修复的一般规律,可能与行为学指标的敏感性差异、盐酸四环素自身的降解、生物抗性有关.     

Physiological changes associated with aging result in lower internal doses of toluene and perchloroethylene in simulations using pharmacokinetic modeling

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models were developed in order to translate external concentrations into internal dose estimates, but most PBPK models were developed for younger adults. A set of physiological parameters for ages 65, 75, and 85 of both genders were developed and were used with previously established human PBPK models of exposure to toluene and perchloroethylene (PERC) in order to investigate internal dose changes with increasing age. The predicted compartmental concentrations of toluene and PERC for aged adults were lower than predicted concentrations for younger adults, and this suggests that body composition changes with aging do not increase internal doses of inhaled toxicants alone after acute exposure. Hence, susceptibility to either toxicant was not expected to increase solely based on the physiological changes associated with aging. Predictions for a metabolite of PERC, however, were similar in magnitude across ages, which may lead to enhanced susceptibility if metabolic capacity changes with aging.     

Identification of a sensitive index during fish bioassay of an azo dye methyl red (untreated and treated)

Acute and chronic toxicity of methyl red (untreated) was examined on a freshwater fish Poecilia reticulata, using indices viz; mortality, reduction in RBC counts and their morphological abnormality (poikilocytosis and anisocytosis). Similar studies (acute toxicity) were also made in physicochemically and biologically treated methyl red. Data comparison of these four indices revealed poikilocytosis as the most sensitive index, since it measured higher toxicity of methyl red when fish mortality was either minimum at its low concentration (5 ppm) during both acute and chronic toxicity or even nil in the biologically treated 100 ppm methyl red, during acute toxicity. Mortality was next to poikilocytosis though it ranked 1st at higher concentration of methyl red during acute toxicity. The reduction in RBC counts however, was found to be the most sensitive parameter only in case of prolonged exposure (4 weeks) to 5 ppm methyl red. Amongst the four indices used for quantifying toxicity; anisocytosis was found to be the least expressive. Based on these findings we recommend quantification of data on fish mortality and poikilocytosis during acute toxicity whereas reduction in RBC counts and poikilocytosis during chronic exposure to methyl red.     

Lethal critical body residues as measures of Cd,Pb, and Zn bioavailability and toxicity in the earthworm<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eisenia fetida</Emphasis>

Background

Earthworm heavy metal concentrations (critical body residues, CBRs) may be the most relevant measures of heavy metal bioavailability in soils and may be linkable to toxic effects in order to better assess soil ecotoxicity. However, as earthworms possess physiological mechanisms to secrete and/or sequester absorbed metals as toxicologically inactive forms, total earthworm metal concentrations may not relate well with toxicity.

Objective

The objectives of this research were to: i) develop LD₅₀s (total earthworm metal concentration associated with 50% mortality) for Cd, Pb, and Zn; ii) evaluate the LD₅₀ for Zn in a lethal Zn-smelter soil; iii) evaluate the lethal mixture toxicity of Cd, Pb, and Zn using earthworm metal concentrations and the toxic unit (TU) approach; and iv) evaluate total and fractionated earthworm concentrations as indicators of sublethal exposure.

Methods

Earthworms (Eisenia fetida (Savigny)) were exposed to artificial soils spiked with Cd, Pb, Zn, and a Cd?Pb?Zn equitoxic mixture to estimate lethal CBRs and mixture toxicity. To evaluate the CBR developed for Zn, earthworms were also exposed to Zn-contaminated field soils receiving three different remediation treatments. Earthworm metal concentrations were measured using a procedure devised to isolate toxicologically active metal burdens via separation into cytosolic and pellet fractions.

Results and Discussion

Lethal CBRs inducing 50% mortality (LD₅₀, 95% CI) were calculated to be 5.72 (3.54–7.91), 3.33 (2.97–3.69), and 8.19 (4.78–11.6) mmol/kg for Cd, Pb, and Zn, respectively. Zn concentrations of dead earthworms exposed to a lethal remediated Zn-smelter soil were 3-fold above the LD₅₀ for Zn and comparable to earthworm concentrations in lethal Zn-spiked artificial soils, despite a 14-fold difference in total soil Zn concentration between lethal field and artificial soils. An evaluation of the acute mixture toxicity of Cd, Pb, and Zn in artificial soils using the Toxic Unit (TU) approach revealed an LD₅₀ (95% CI) of 0.99 (0.57–1.41) TU, indicating additive toxicity.

Conclusions

Total Cd, Pb, and Zn concentrations in earthworms were good indicators of lethal metal exposure, and enabled the calculation of LD₅₀s for lethality. The Zn-LD₅₀ developed in artificial soil was applicable to earthworms exposed to remediated Zn-smelter soil, despite a 14-fold difference in total soil Zn concentrations. Mixture toxicity evaluated using LD₅₀s from each single metal test indicated additive mixture toxicity among Cd, Pb, and Zn. Fractionation of earthworm tissues into cytosolic and pellet digesis yielded mixed results for detecting differences in exposure at the sublethal level.

Recommendation and Outlook

CBRs are useful in describing acute Cd, Pb, and Zn toxicity in earthworms, but linking sublethal exposure to total and/or fractionated residues may be more difficult. More research on detoxification, regulation, and tissue and subcellular partitioning of heavy metals in earthworms and other invertebrates is needed to establish the link between body residue and sublethal exposure and toxicity.

     

Effects of tributyl-tin on a marine microalga, Tetraselimis suecica

Marine pollutants induce changes in microalgal metabolism. In this study effects of tributyl-tin chloride (TBTCl) on a marine microalga Tetraselmis suecica was studied. The changes induced by TBTCI on growth rate, viability and biochemicals were assessed. In acute exposure to TBTCl, EC50 estimated for 24 hr was 2.02 microg ml(-1), whereas total lethality was observed at 4 microg ml(-1). In chronic exposure to TBTCl, at higher concentrations (0.5-1 microg ml(-1)) growth rate, chlorophyll pigments, carbohydrate and protein contents were reduced. The results of this study indicate that TBTCl toxicity made drastic changes in growth and biochemical composition of T. suecica.     

Predicting species distributions from samples collected along roadsides

Predictive models of species distributions are typically developed with data collected along roads. Roadside sampling may provide a biased (nonrandom) sample; however, it is currently unknown whether roadside sampling limits the accuracy of predictions generated by species distribution models. We tested whether roadside sampling affects the accuracy of predictions generated by species distribution models by using a prospective sampling strategy designed specifically to address this issue. We built models from roadside data and validated model predictions at paired locations on unpaved roads and 200 m away from roads (off road), spatially and temporally independent from the data used for model building. We predicted species distributions of 15 bird species on the basis of point-count data from a landbird monitoring program in Montana and Idaho (U.S.A.). We used hierarchical occupancy models to account for imperfect detection. We expected predictions of species distributions derived from roadside-sampling data would be less accurate when validated with data from off-road sampling than when it was validated with data from roadside sampling and that model accuracy would be differentially affected by whether species were generalists, associated with edges, or associated with interior forest. Model performance measures (kappa, area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic plot, and true skill statistic) did not differ between model predictions of roadside and off-road distributions of species. Furthermore, performance measures did not differ among edge, generalist, and interior species, despite a difference in vegetation structure along roadsides and off road and that 2 of the 15 species were more likely to occur along roadsides. If the range of environmental gradients is surveyed in roadside-sampling efforts, our results suggest that surveys along unpaved roads can be a valuable, unbiased source of information for species distribution models.     

Predicting the aquatic toxicity of commercial pesticide mixtures

Background

Previous studies reported on a large (> 80%) compliance between the observed toxicity of pesticide mixtures and their toxicity as predicted by the concept of concentration addition (CA). The present study extents these findings to commercially sold and frequently applied pesticide mixtures by investigating whether the aquatic toxicity of 66 herbicidal and 53 fungicidal combination products, i.e., authorized plant protection products that contain two or more active substances, can reliably be predicted by CA.

Results

In more than 50% of cases, the predicted and observed mixture toxicity deviated by less than factor 2. An indication for a synergistic interaction was only detected with regard to algal growth inhibition for mixtures of fungicides that inhibit different enzymes of ergosterol biosynthesis. The greatest degree of compliance between prediction and observation was found for the acute toxicity of fungicidal products towards Daphnia and fish, while the greatest degree of underestimation of product toxicity occurred for the acute toxicity of herbicidal products towards Daphnia and fish. Using the lowest available toxicity measures within taxonomic groups as the most conservative approach resulted in a bias towards overestimation of product toxicity, but did not eliminate cases of considerable underestimation of product toxicity.

Conclusions

The results suggest that the CA concept can be applied to predict the aquatic toxicity of commercial pesticide mixtures using the heterogeneous data typically available in a risk assessment context for a number of clearly identified combinations of test species and pesticide types with reasonably small uncertainty.     

More accurate chronological age determination of crustaceans from field situations using the physiological age marker,lipofuscin

A captive population of Australian red-claw crayfish, Cherax quadricarinatus, of known age was used for the study. Lipofuscin concentration in the left olfactory lobe cell mass of the brain was measured using image analysis of fluorescence micrographs. Age predictions based on lipofuscin concentration were more accurate and had narrower 95% confidence limits than those derived from the more conventional body size and weight predictors for all age groups tested (180, 300, 420, 780 d). Overall, use of lipofuscin concentration produced a significantly lower (p0.001) mean age-prediction error (16.65%) than use of carapace length or body weight (32.45 and 32.3%, respectively). Carapace length was of little value for prediction of the age of older individuals. Mathematical models defining the relationships between temperature, age and lipofuscin accumulation were derived from laboratory-reared individuals. These models did not describe adequately the course of lipofuscin accumulation in crayfish from the field over the whole lifespan. Field data from three known year-classes were used to generate simulated size-frequency and lipofuscin concentration-frequency histograms. Year-classes in the lipofuscin concentration frequency-histogram were much more easily distinguished than in the size-frequency histogram. Under field conditions, lipofuscin concentration was a better predictor of chronological age than conventional morphometric measures.     

Predicting the Range of Chinese Mitten Crabs in Europe

Abstract:  Ecological niche modeling provides a means for predicting the potential future distribution of a nonindigenous species based on environmental characteristics of the species' native range. We applied this method to the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) , a catadromous crustacean with a long history of invasion in Europe. We used genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction to predict the potential European distribution of mitten crab based on its distribution in 42 locations in its native Asia. The climatic variables, air temperature, number of days, amount of precipitation, and wetness index, contributed significantly to predictions of native distribution limits. Although the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model was developed for the native range, the species' extensive distribution in Europe ( n = 434) allowed independent validation of the predictions. Application of the model to Europe was successful, with 84% of occurrences in regions predicted to be suitable by >80% of the models and <4% of occurrences in areas predicted suitable by <50% of the models (mainly along the northern range). At the watershed scale, areas with established mitten crab populations had significantly higher habitat matching than sites that were not invaded. The independent validation of the Asian-based model by the European distribution revealed that predictions were highly accurate. The model also identified large areas of Europe, particularly along the Mediterranean coast, as vulnerable to future invasion. These predictions can be used to develop strategies to control the spread of mitten crab by preventing introductions into vulnerable areas.     

Effect of water extract of the bark of Buchanania lanzan linn. on behaviour and chromatophores of a fresh water fish,Labeo rohita

Fish exposed to 150 ppm and 250 ppm doses saparately, showed eratic swimming with hyper-excitability, spiralling, convulsion and mortality. However at 350 ppm dose fish became lethargic and steady at the bottom of aquarium. This behaviour appears to be due to sedative effects of fish implicating the phychoactive nature of the plant B. Ianzan. At 150 ppm to 350 ppm doses, fish scale changed from reticulate to punctate chromatophores; and treated fish when transferred to fresh water, were slowly regained to normal behaviour after 96 h exposure. Hence doses regaining from 150 ppm to 350 ppm is considered to be psychoative in nature. In higher doses 450 ppm and 550 ppm fish could survive only 76 h and 4.30 h respectively and then died indicating toxicity of plant for the said doses. It is found that scale present on its body is most suitable test system for the study of psychoactivity and toxicity of plant extracts on fish, Labeo rohita.     

Predicting abundance of desert riparian birds: validation and calibration of the Effective Area Model.

Reliable prediction of the effects of landscape change on species abundance is critical to land managers who must make frequent, rapid decisions with long-term consequences. However, due to inherent temporal and spatial variability in ecological systems, previous attempts to predict species abundance in novel locations and/or time frames have been largely unsuccessful. The Effective Area Model (EAM) uses change in habitat composition and geometry coupled with response of animals to habitat edges to predict change in species abundance at a landscape scale. Our research goals were to validate EAM abundance predictions in new locations and to develop a calibration framework that enables absolute abundance predictions in novel regions or time frames. For model validation, we compared the EAM to a null model excluding edge effects in terms of accurate prediction of species abundance. The EAM outperformed the null model for 83.3% of species (N=12) for which it was possible to discern a difference when considering 50 validation sites. Likewise, the EAM outperformed the null model when considering subsets of validation sites categorized on the basis of four variables (isolation, presence of water, region, and focal habitat). Additionally, we explored a framework for producing calibrated models to decrease prediction error given inherent temporal and spatial variability in abundance. We calibrated the EAM to new locations using linear regression between observed and predicted abundance with and without additional habitat covariates. We found that model adjustments for unexplained variability in time and space, as well as variability that can be explained by incorporating additional covariates, improved EAM predictions. Calibrated EAM abundance estimates with additional site-level variables explained a significant amount of variability (P < 0.05) in observed abundance for 17 of 20 species, with R2 values >25% for 12 species, >48% for six species, and >60% for four species when considering all predictive models. The calibration framework described in this paper can be used to predict absolute abundance in sites different from those in which data were collected if the target population of sites to which one would like to statistically infer is sampled in a probabilistic way.     

Definition of Planarian Mortality in an Acute Toxicity Test: A Case Study on Dugesia japonica Exposed to 1-Octyl-3-methylimidazolium Bromide

In order to define the mortality criteria of planarian objectively,a case study of Dugesia japonica exposed to 1-octyl-3-methylimidazolium bromide([C8mim]Br)was performed followed by a recovery culture.The results showed that defining planarian mortality in light of its body disintegration was appropriate.If the disintegrated tissue of a planarian was more than 1/4 of its body length,it would completely degenerate.However,a planarian would regenerate the lost tissue and return to normal after a few days’recovery culture if the disintegrated part was less than 1/4 of body length.Therefore,we propose to use body disintegration as the endpoint of planarian mortality,i.e.,1/4 body length degenerated is the critical threshold of mortality and survival of planarians when exposed to toxicants.This criterion could be adapted in the standardization of testing protocols and comparability of acute toxicity test or other toxicological research using planarian as the test animal.     

Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by resubstitution rates were similar for each lichen species irrespective of the underlying sample survey form. Cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracies were lower than resubstitution accuracies for all species and both design types, and in all cases were closer to the true prediction accuracies based on the EVALUATION data set. We argue that greater emphasis should be placed on calculating and reporting cross-validation accuracy rates rather than simple resubstitution accuracy rates. Evaluation of the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models on the EVALUATION data set shows significantly lower prediction accuracy for the PURPOSIVE tree models relative to the DESIGN models, indicating that non-probabilistic sample surveys may generate models with limited predictive capability. These differences were consistent across all four lichen species, with 11 of the 12 possible species and sample survey type comparisons having significantly lower accuracy rates. Some differences in accuracy were as large as 50%. The classification tree structures also differed considerably both among and within the modelled species, depending on the sample survey form. Overlap in the predictor variables selected by the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models ranged from only 20% to 38%, indicating the classification trees fit the two evaluated survey forms on different sets of predictor variables. The magnitude of these differences in predictor variables throws doubt on ecological interpretation derived from prediction models based on non-probabilistic sample surveys.     

A global evaluation of metabolic theory as an explanation for terrestrial species richness gradients

We compiled 46 broadscale data sets of species richness for a wide range of terrestrial plant, invertebrate, and ectothermic vertebrate groups in all parts of the world to test the ability of metabolic theory to account for observed diversity gradients. The theory makes two related predictions: (1) In-transformed richness is linearly associated with a linear, inverse transformation of annual temperature, and (2) the slope of the relationship is near -0.65. Of the 46 data sets, 14 had no significant relationship; of the remaining 32, nine were linear, meeting prediction 1. Model I (ordinary least squares, OLS) and model II (reduced major axis, RMA) regressions then tested the linear slopes against prediction 2. In the 23 data sets having nonlinear relationships between richness and temperature, split-line regression divided the data into linear components, and regressions were done on each component to test prediction 2 for subsets of the data. Of the 46 data sets analyzed in their entirety using OLS regression, one was consistent with metabolic theory (meeting both predictions), and one was possibly consistent. Using RMA regression, no data sets were consistent. Of 67 analyses of prediction 2 using OLS regression on all linear data sets and subsets, two were consistent with the prediction, and four were possibly consistent. Using RMA regression, one was consistent (albeit weakly), and four were possibly consistent. We also found that the relationship between richness and temperature is both taxonomically and geographically conditional, and there is no evidence for a universal response of diversity to temperature. Meta-analyses confirmed significant heterogeneity in slopes among data sets, and the combined slopes across studies were significantly lower than the range of slopes predicted by metabolic theory based on both OLS and RMA regressions. We conclude that metabolic theory, as currently formulated, is a poor predictor of observed diversity gradients in most terrestrial systems.