Quantitative Pollution Spill Risk Assessment: Using A Gis-Based System

Federal and State agencies have recently advocated risk-based analysis as a mechanism for advancing regulatory reform and safety determination in marine systems. the present investigation promotes this objective through the development of risk-based environmental planning strategies for oil spill contingency plans. This alternative approach to contingency planning departs from conventional methodology by employing quantitative risk assessment methods to identify hazardous oil spill zones and sensitive environmental areas, R_o and R_e respectively. the product of this conversion is referenced on a single “Risk” layer within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework allowing coastal managers to evaluate natural resource data with associated elements of oil spill risk. As a new tool for coastal pollution management, risk-based environmental planning strategies have shown potential for evolving more efficient oil spill contingency plans.     

Maritime oil spills— Environmental lessons and experiences with special reference to low-risk coastlines

Oil spill contingency plans are available for most coastlines but the amount of useful environmental data is variable. The information should be held on a GIS base. High risk areas should be identified and the pre-existing store of environmental knowledge should be commensurately extensive and should be available in considerable spatial detail. Contingency plans still depend on basic lists of coastal types as defined by static, sediment based shoreline characteristics. There is a lack of dynamic, process information. TheBraer oil spill of 1993 provides a case study of the application of sound coastal geomorphological and ecological data to impact assessment. Monitoring of the ecological effects of this massive oil spill reinforces other research which indicates that most coastlines can recover naturally from oil spills, and that oil spill clean up techniques may not necessarily benefit rapid shoreline recovery. Although pre-existing environmental informations is important, the key decisions must be taken quickly and are frequently judgmental and, therefore, place a premium on gathering appropriate scientific expertise to the site of the spill as soon as possible and with sufficient powers to affect both the oil spill response, to initiate early surveys of damage and to facilitate the initial monitoring programme.     

How public health impact is addressed: a retrospective view on three different oil spills

Spanning over a half century, over 38 “major” oil spill accidents have occurred, with the Deep Water Horizon disaster proving to be one of the largest oil spills on record. It is during these environmental disasters where the public community gathers together to participate in the clean-up effort and government entities coordinate various action plans. Whether it is using (1) workers to apply chemical dispersants to facilitate the remediation of oil in impacted areas or (2) volunteers to pick up “tar balls” from the beach shorelines; public health concerns during an oil spill are warranted for consideration. The purpose of this review was to illustrate a need for increase in scientific advancement and governmental focus on detecting and mitigating public health effects following an oil spill disaster. With focus on the Exxon Valdez, Prestige, and Gulf oil spills, the governmental and scientific community responses were assessed. Using the human-environmental system model, this review illustrates how the model can be used to address human-health concerns following exposure to an oil spill stressor.     

基于物种敏感性分布的保护海水水生生物的石油烃急性毒性基准研究

溢油污染对水生生物的危害以及分散剂使用对原油毒性的影响一直是溢油应急响应及危害评估时关注的焦点。本研究收集筛选了基于标准测试方法的90组急性毒性数据(LC50/EC50),其中37组毒性数据来自15种油品的水容纳组分(water accommodated fraction,WAF),53组来自11种化学分散剂与15种油品的分散液(chemically dispersed water accommodated fraction,CEWAF),应用物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distribution,SSD)方法推导了基于水生生物保护的石油烃总量(total petroleum hydrocarbon,TPH)的急性毒性基准值,同时还分析了分散剂和不同暴露方式对原油毒性的影响。结果显示,以名义浓度(nominal concentrations)所表示的毒性结果可能高估分散剂对原油毒性的影响,基于CEWAF和WAF的LC50/EC50所推导的有害浓度(HC5s)差异较小,计算出的保护水生生物TPH急性毒性基准值为0.38 mg·L-1(TPH);鱼类对原油污染的响应明显敏感于甲壳类;同时证明了SSD方法在溢油毒性评估及风险阈值推导中具有可行性和合理性。     

海洋溢油污染的生态与健康危害

随着溢油事故的频繁发生,海洋溢油污染备受关注.本文在阐述国内外海洋溢油污染现状的基础上,针对溢油污染对人类健康的影响进行了初步分析,并针对海洋环境中溢油的环境行为以及对海洋生态系统、沿岸滩涂生态系统的毒性效应进行了概述.最后,对海洋溢油污染研究的发展趋势进行了展望.     

Prediction of the Transport and Dispersal of Oil in the South Caspian Sea Resulting from Blowouts

A 3-D hybrid flow/transport model is developed to predict the dispersal of oil pollution in coastal waters. The transport module of the model takes predetermined current and turbulent diffusivities and uses Lagrangian tracking to predict the motion of individual particles (droplets), the sum of which constitutes a hypothetical oil spill. Currents and turbulent diffusivities used in the model are generated by a numerical ocean circulation model (POM) implemented for the Caspian Sea. The basic processes affecting the fate of the oil spill are taken into account and parameterised in the transport model. The process of evaporation is modeled with the pseudo-component approach. The model is implemented for a simulated continuous release in the coastal waters of the south part of the Caspian Sea. Numerical experiments simulate 5- and 10-day blowout scenarios resulting from sources situated in areas were intensive and extensive development of oil deposits is expected soon. Oil slick movement and risk of coastline contamination by beaching of offshore oil spills are illustrated for different wind conditions.     

Integrated coastal zone management in Italy: a gap between science and policy

This paper introduces the need, in Italian countries, of a real integration of scientific knowledge into coastal policy. Actually, in Italy, still exists a gap between Science and Policy, interfering the implementation of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) process, while there is no coordination between local, regional and national authorities. This lack of an overall strategy has induced some regions to adopt regional plans for the sustainable development of their coastal areas, to compensate the shortcomings of a national planning. Besides, along Italian coasts, there is a heavy landscape urbanization producing conditions of environmental decay and highlighting the risk of erosions in littoral areas. In this critical context, it is necessary to adopt an effective Integrated Coastal Zone Management policy, to connect ecosystem and environmental approaches with the social and economic development of coastal areas. So, in Italian landscape, it is necessary to integrate the national cultural heritage into coastal management, joining scientific and cultural issues. In this framework, ICZM process could play an important role connecting scientists and policy makers towards an effective integration for the social and economic growth of local people.     

Developing a Criterion for Delisting the Southern Sea Otter under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Recent surveys of recovery plans indicate that criteria, such as population sizes, for delisting species from the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) are often unrealistically low by scientific standards. We describe the delisting criterion for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) developed by the Southern Sea Otter Recovery Team. A major oil spill is the most serious threat to this sea otter population. After extensive modeling of oil spills, the recovery team concluded that it was not scientifically defensible to develop a delisting criterion in terms of a single probability of extinction over a specified time period. Instead, the team decided to define a size at which it would consider the population endangered and to consider the population threatened as long as a major oil spill might reduce it to that size. The effective population size (N_e) for endangered status was set at 500, estimated to be about 1850 otters. Using a spill the size of the Exxon Valdez spill (250,000 bbl), the oil spill model was iterated to generate a frequency distribution of the number of sea otters contacted by oil, from which the team estimated that less than 800 otters would be killed by 90% of the simulated spills. Thus, the delisting criterion was set at 1850 + 800 = 2650 individuals. There have been several proposals to improve the Endangered Species Act by providing quantitative guidance, in the form of specific probabilities of extinction within some time frame or specific criteria like those used by the World Conservation Union as to the levels of extinction risk represented by the terms "threatened" and "endangered." Experiences of the Sea Otter Recovery Team indicate that guidelines should not be overly rigid and should allow flexibility for dealing with specific situations. The most important consideration is to appoint a recovery team that is both technically well qualified and unconstrained by pressures from management agencies.     

Exploring the conservation status of an endangered coastal plant over the last nine years: a case study in Andalusia,Spain

Human pressure has been exponentially growing during recent decades in coastal areas, which have led to drastic losses of biodiversity in coastal ecosystems. The current conservation status of many coastal plant species is directly related to a lack of environmental criteria in the urban planning of coastal areas over recent decades. This study aimed to evaluate the evolution, over the last 9 years, of the conservation status of various populations of the endangered plant Glaucium flavum, exploring the extent to which human pressure and different management strategies practiced in the coastal areas where the populations are established have affected the conservation status of the species. The populations analysed have evolved in a different manner over the last 9 years, as have their threat factors, and a relationship was evident between their conservation status and the evolution of these different threat factors. Our results indicate that an appropriate planning of local management actions, such as the installation of walkways or the successful eradication of invasive species, may be determinant factors for successful conservation of the coastal vegetation. The presence of species that are sensitive to slight changes in the ecosystem, and the main factors that govern the plant performance of these species, must be given full consideration in decision-making processes of coastal planning and management.     

Environmental indicators GIS of the Catalan coast

This paper describes the environmental indicators GIS of the Catalan coast, Spain. The spatial data model is based on vector and raster layers with three main modules: the biodiversity, the general biophysical and the socioeconomic. Presently, the database has a number of pressure and impact indicators that have been used to model the components and structure of the system and are suggested to build ecological resilience. Special interest has been given to the analysis of functional groups of species that are relevant to the dynamics of the coastal system, and preliminary results are presented. This system constitutes a user-oriented analytical and monitoring tool for coastal zone managers and researchers. Although, the system is under development it is expected that resulting spatial indicators of environmental condition can be used to promote more sustainable coastal strategies and actions in the Catalan coast.     

Environmental disaster,pollution and infant health: Evidence from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

In 2010 the Gulf Coast experienced the largest oil spill affecting U.S. waters in history. Evaporating crude oil and dispersant chemicals can cause major health problems. This paper examines the impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on air quality and infant health outcomes. Using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) AirData, vital statistics data from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and a difference-in-difference methodology, we find that the oil spill of 2010 increased concentrations of PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO in affected coastal counties, increased incidence of low birth weight (<2500 g) and premature born infants (<37 weeks of gestation). Heterogeneity effects reveal more pronounced adverse infant health outcomes for black, Hispanic, less educated, unmarried, and younger mothers. Results are robust to a wide range of controls and robustness checks.     

溢油分散剂中吐温80对石油中多环芳烃在海水中光降解的影响

溢油事故发生后喷洒溢油分散剂是常用的应急措施之一,这使得溢油分散剂中的表面活性剂与石油中的重要污染物多环芳烃(PAHs)在海水中共存。光化学转化是水中PAHs的重要转化途径,这些共存表面活性剂如何影响PAHs在海水中的光化学消减还有待阐明。本研究选取溢油分散剂的重要活性成分吐温80和石油中2种不同类型的PAHs(菲和二苯并噻吩),通过光化学实验考察不同浓度吐温80对菲(PHE)和二苯并噻吩(DBT)在海水中的光降解速率常数和光解量子产率的影响,并通过量子化学计算的手段研究其影响机制。研究发现:吐温80可以使PHE和DBT的阳离子自由基回到稳定的基态,降低PHE和DBT的光解量子产率,从而抑制PHE和DBT的光降解。该结果表明,在评价溢油分散剂的风险性时不可忽视其对PAHs环境转化行为的影响。     

Function analysis as a coastal management tool: the South Wales coastline,UK

Fifteen beaches from the Swansea Bay coastal sediment cell, South Wales, UK, were analysed via function analysis, involving assessment of specific environmental and socio-economic indicators. These were allocated scores from field surveys and extensive desktop studies, which included beach awards, relevant shoreline management plans, planning and conservation designations and current legislation. Normalised scores allowed production of a conservation/development matrix, enabling beach location in conservation, development or conflict fields, which results appropriately identified. Conservation field beaches tended to have a low density residential hinterland with little or no commercialisation. Conversely, beaches that leant towards the development field had a high density residential hinterland and were highly commercialised. Evaluation showed the importance of planning legislation in conflict areas and identified locations of development potential, where significant environmental consequences would be unlikely. This representation could be used for evolution of conservation/development status within coastal areas, enabling policy adjustment as necessary. It will also enable future sustainability assessment and it is suggested that indicators could be modified to reduce environmental emphasis and provide a more uniform socio-economic consideration.     

Minimizing the Cost of Keeping Options Open for Conservation in a Changing Climate

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate‐change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea‐level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea‐level rise predictions into a decision‐making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea‐level rise and assuming a risk‐neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade‐offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. Minimizando el Costo de Mantener Opciones Abiertas para la Conservación en un Clima Cambiante     

Current Practice and Future Prospects for Social Data in Coastal and Ocean Planning

Coastal and ocean planning comprises a broad field of practice. The goals, political processes, and approaches applied to planning initiatives may vary widely. However, all planning processes ultimately require adequate information on both the biophysical and social attributes of a planning region. In coastal and ocean planning practice, there are well‐established methods to assess biophysical attributes; however, less is understood about the role and assessment of social data. We conducted the first global assessment of the incorporation of social data in coastal and ocean planning. We drew on a comprehensive review of planning initiatives and a survey of coastal and ocean practitioners. There was significantly more incorporation of social data in multiuse versus conservation‐oriented planning. Practitioners engaged a wide range of social data, including governance, economic, and cultural attributes of planning regions and human impacts data. Less attention was given to ecosystem services and social–ecological linkages, both of which could improve coastal and ocean planning practice. Although practitioners recognize the value of social data, little funding is devoted to its collection and incorporation in plans. Increased capacity and sophistication in acquiring critical social and ecological data for planning is necessary to develop plans for more resilient coastal and ocean ecosystems and communities. We suggest that improving social data monitoring, and in particular spatial social data, to complement biophysical data, is necessary for providing holistic information for decision‐support tools and other methods. Moving beyond people as impacts to people as beneficiaries, through ecosystem services assessments, holds much potential to better incorporate the tenets of ecosystem‐based management into coastal and ocean planning by providing targets for linked biodiversity conservation and human welfare outcomes. La Práctica Actual y los Prospectos Futuros para los Datos Sociales en la Planeación Costera y Oceánica     

有机化学品不同温度下(过冷)液体蒸气压预测模型的建立与评价

(过冷)液体蒸气压(PL)是评价化学品在环境中分配、迁移和归趋行为的重要参数。PL具有较强的温度依附性。发展一种能够精确预测不同环境温度下化学品PL的方法,有助于填补化学品生态风险评估的大量数据缺失。本研究收集整理了661种有机化合物在不同温度下(200~830 K)共计10 478个log PL值。在此基础上,采用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归和支持向量机(SVM)方法,构建了PL的线性和非线性预测模型。结果表明:2种模型均具有良好的拟合度、稳健性及预测能力,SVM模型的预测性能略高于PLS模型(PLS:R2adj.tra=0.912,RMSEtra=0.477,Q2ext=0.910;SVM:R2adj.tra=0.997,RMSEtra=0.092,Q2ext=0.967)。机理分析表明,温度是影响PL的主要因素,温度越高,蒸气压越大;其次,X1sol也影响PL大小,X1sol用来描述分子间的色散作用,分子间色散力越小,蒸气压越大;此外,化合物的氢键个数、极性和分子构型等因素也影响PL大小。采用Wiliams plot方法表征了PLS模型应用域。所建立的模型可用来预测烷烃、烯烃、醇、酮、羧酸、苯、酚、联苯、卤代芳香烃、含N化合物及含S化合物在不同温度下的PL数据。     

Mid-depth oil concentration due to vertical oil dispersion in a regular wave field

An experimental program is organized to investigate the vertical oil dispersion of surface oil spills in a regular wave field. Various waves characteristics and different volumes of oil spills are tested to assess the oil concentration variations at two sampling stations. It is found that the oil concentration due to vertical oil dispersion follows an ascending diagram to reach a maximum and then decreases while oil slick passes the location. The maximum mid-depth oil concentration (C_max) at the farther sampling station is 30–50 % less than the concentration at the closer sampling station to the spill location. A 50 % increase in oil spill volume causes 30–60 % growth in oil concentrations. The relations between oil concentration and important parameters such as wave characteristics, amount of spilled oil and the distance of sampling stations from the spill location are indicated and also oil concentration variations are quantified. Two equations are derived through statistical analysis of the obtained experimental data, which estimate the magnitude and time of maximum oil concentration.     

Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change

Uncertainties hamper the implementation of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). In order to quantitatively characterize the uncertainties of environmental impacts, this paper develops an integrated methodology through uncertainty analysis on land use change, which combines the scenario analysis approach, stochastic simulation technique, and statistics. Dalian city in China was taken as a case study in the present work. The results predict that the Fuzhou River poses the highest environmental pollution risk with a probability of 89.63% for COD in 2020. Furthermore, the Biliu River, Fuzhou River, Zhuang River, and Dasha River have 100% probabilities for NH₃-N. NH₃-N is a more critical pollutant than COD for all rivers. For COD, industry is the critical pollution source for all rivers except the Zhuang River. For NH₃-N, agriculture is the critical pollution source for the Biliu River, Yingna River, and Dasha River, sewage for the Fuzhou River and Zhuang River, and industry for the Dengsha River. This methodology can provide useful information, such as environmental risk, environmental pressure, and extremely environmental impact, especially under considerations of uncertainties. It can also help to ascertain the significance of each pollution source and its priority for control in urban planning.     

Hydrocarbon pollution of edible shellfish by an oil spill

A spill of 650,000 to 700,000 l of No. 2 fuel oil has contaminated the coastal areas of Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts (USA). Gas chromatography demonstrates the presence of this oil in the sediments of the affected area. Two months after the accident, essentially unchanged oil is still being released from the sediments. The presence of the same pollutant is demonstrated in whole oysters Crassostrea virginica and in the adductor muscle of the scallop Aequipecten irradians. A presumably biochemical modification leads to a gradual depletion of the straight chain and, to a lesser extent, of branched chain hydrocarbons. This does not result in detoxification, as the more toxic aromatic hydrocarbons are retained in the organisms several months after the accident. Scallops from an uncontaminated area contain hydrocarbons in lesser amounts and of very different molecular weight and type distribution; they are accountable entirely from biological sources.Contribution No. 2444 of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.     

An assessment of coastal land-use and land-cover change from 1974–2008 in the vicinity of Mobile Bay,Alabama

The purpose of this research is to quantify and assess geospatial land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in the coastal counties of Mobile and Baldwin, Alabama using nine Landsat images from 1974–2008. A study-specific classification scheme was devised comprising upland herbaceous, upland forest, non-woody and woody wetlands, open water, and urban categories. Upland forest was the most dominant terrestrial cover type. Wetlands averaged 17% and urban averaged 7%. A majority of the urban expansion occurred between 1974 and 1979 (26%). Thirty-four percent of the 2008 urban areas were upland forest in 1974. Watershed-scale analysis of Three Mile Creek and D’Olive Bay highlights the temporal and spatial differences of urbanization for watersheds found within the same region. This study is a Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) Application Pilot project that uses NASA data products to benefit coastal environmental managers and community members. Results have led to increased effectiveness of coastal conservation decision-making, increased understanding of post-hurricane LULC change, continued research on habitat change impacts, and contributed to timely conservation planning efforts. This study has benefited the development of watershed management plans by the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program, which is especially important given projected climate change.