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1.
The distribution of overall temperature and the frequency of heat waves may be shifting due to climate change. However, forecasting future health consequences of higher temperatures in a given city is complicated by uncertainties in how populations and societal infrastructure will adapt. This paper reviews approaches to address these challenges, including: (1) using historical weather–mortality relationships for the same region, or a location with a similar climate as the city of interest; (2) evaluating adaptation using the minimum mortality threshold (MMT) temperature (i.e., the temperature with the lowest mortality rate); and (3) estimating the impact of modifiers (e.g., air conditioning, population density, green space) on the temperature and mortality relation, and then predicting a range of effects based on plausible estimates for the future values of these parameters in a given city. Each approach can provide insight into how heat could affect mortality under a changing climate, but all have uncertainties. In spite of these limitations, projecting the future public health burden of temperature-related health effects can provide valuable information to aid public health and environmental authorities in planning and communicating the risks of climate change to the public.  相似文献   

2.
The study presents the results of an integrated assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector in Germany, with special emphasis on the competition with renewable energy technologies. Assessment dimensions comprise technical, economic and environmental aspects, long-term scenario analysis, the role of stakeholders and public acceptance and regulatory issues. The results lead to the overall conclusion that there might not necessarily be a need to focus additionally on CCS in the power plant sector. Even in case of ambitious climate protection targets, current energy policy priorities (expansion of renewable energies and combined heat and power plants as well as enhanced energy productivity) result in a limited demand for CCS. In case that the large energy saving potential aimed for can only partly be implemented, the rising gap in CO2 reduction could only be closed by setting up a CCS-maximum strategy. In this case, up to 22% (41 GW) of the totally installed load in 2050 could be based on CCS. Assuming a more realistic scenario variant applying CCS to only 20 GW or lower would not be sufficient to reach the envisaged climate targets in the electricity sector. Furthermore, the growing public opposition against CO2 storage projects appears as a key barrier, supplemented by major uncertainties concerning the estimation of storage potentials, the long-term cost development as well as the environmental burdens which abound when applying a life-cycle approach. However, recently, alternative applications are being increasingly considered?Cthat is the capture of CO2 at industrial point sources and biomass based energy production (electricity, heat and fuels) where assessment studies for exploring the potentials, limits and requirements for commercial use are missing so far. Globally, CCS at power plants might be an important climate protection technology: coal-consuming countries such as China and India are increasingly moving centre stage into the debate. Here, similar investigations on the development and the integration of both, CCS and renewable energies, into the individual energy system structures of such countries would be reasonable.  相似文献   

3.
Determinants of adaptive and mitigative capacities (e.g., availability of technological options, and access to economic resources, social capital and human capital) largely overlap. Several factors underlying or related to these determinants are themselves indicators of sustainable development (e.g., per capita income; and various public health, education and research indices). Moreover, climate change could exacerbate existing climate-sensitive hurdles to sustainable development (e.g., hunger, malaria, water shortage, coastal flooding and threats to biodiversity) faced specifically by many developing countries. Based on these commonalities, the paper identifies integrated approaches to formulating strategies and measures to concurrently advance adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. These approaches range from broadly moving sustainable development forward (by developing and/or nurturing institutions, policies and infrastructure to stimulate economic development, technological change, human and social capital, and reducing specific barriers to sustainable development) to reducing vulnerabilities to urgent climate-sensitive risks that hinder sustainable development and would worsen with climate change. The resulting sustainable economic development would also help reduce birth rates, which could mitigate climate change and reduce the population exposed to climate change and climate-sensitive risks, thereby reducing impacts, and the demand for adaptation. The paper also offers a portfolio of pro-active strategies and measures consistent with the above approaches, including example measures that would simultaneously reduce pressures on biodiversity, hunger, and carbon sinks. Finally it addresses some common misconceptions that could hamper fuller integration of adaptation and mitigation, including the notions that adaptation may be unsuitable for natural systems, and mitigation should necessarily have primacy over adaptation.
Indur M. GoklanyEmail:
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4.
An experiments were carried out with treatments differing in nitrogen supply (0, 5 and 15 g N/m2) and CO2 levels (350 and 700 μmol/mol) using OTC (open top chamber) equipment to investigate the biomass of Calamagrostis angustifolia and soil active carbon contents after two years. The results showed that elevated CO2 concentration increased the biomass of C. angustifolia and the magnitude of response varied with each growth period. Elevated CO2 concentration has increased aboveground biomass by 16.7% and 17.6% during the jointing and heading periods and only 3.5% and 9.4% during dough and maturity periods. The increases in belowground biomass due to CO2 elevation was 26.5%, 34.0% and 28.7% during the heading, dough and maturity periods, respectively. The responses of biomass to enhanced CO2 concentrations are differed in N levels. Both the increase of aboveground biomass and belowground biomass were greater under high level of N supply (15 g N/m2). Elevated CO2 concentration also increased the allocation of biomass and carbon in root. Under elevated CO2 concentration, the average values of active carbon tended to increase. The increases of soil active soil contents followed the sequence of microbial biomass carbon (10.6%) > dissolved organic carbon (7.5%) > labile oxidable carbon (6.6%) > carbohydrate carbon (4.1%). Stepwise regressions indicated there were significant correlations between the soil active carbon contents and plant biomass. Particularly, microbial biomass carbon, labile oxidable carbon and carbohydrate carbon were found to be correlated with belowground biomass, while dissolved organic carbon has correlation with aboveground biomass. Therefore, increased biomass was regarded as the main driving force for the increase in soil active organic carbon under elevated CO2 concentration.  相似文献   

5.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a promising technology for reducing carbon emissions, but the public is often reluctant to support it. To understand why public support is lacking, it is crucial to establish what citizens think about the arguments that are used by proponents and opponents of CCS. We determined the persuasiveness, importance and novelty of 32 arguments for and against CCS using a discrete choice experiment in which respondents made consecutive choices between pairs of pro or con arguments. We used latent class models to identify population segments with different preferences. The results show that citizens find arguments about climate protection, which is the primary goal of CCS, less persuasive than other arguments, such as normative arguments (for example ‘a waste product such as CO2 should be disposed of properly’) or arguments about benefits of CCS for energy production and economic growth. This discrepancy complicates communication that aims to convince citizens of the benefits of CCS for climate protection.  相似文献   

6.
One of the major justifications for bio-energy systems is their low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to fossil-energy ones. Transforming a sugar mill into a bio-energy plant would contribute to climate change mitigation via the extraction of renewable electricity and ethanol. This study takes the case of the sugar industry in Thailand and identifies scenario options that offer GHG reduction benefits. Improving efficiency in electricity generation from sugar cane residues e.g. excess bagasse and cane trash is such a beneficial option. Furthermore, extracting ethanol in a so-called bio-refinery, where the co-product stillage is utilized for energy, tends to magnify the potential benefit. The largest savings potential achieved with extracting ethanol from surplus sugar versus current practice in the sugar industry in Thailand amounts to 14 million tonnes CO2e a year. This cannot be realized in practice until the carbon debt from land conversion is repaid, which takes 4.5–7 years, assuming that the land converted is grassland.  相似文献   

7.
The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics of several management scenarios within the context of simulated twenty-first century climate change. Simulations of all scenarios with land use, including restoration, indicated net C losses over the twenty-first century ranging from 10 to 100 % of pre-disturbance values. Fire can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. Simulated 100 years of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation with an initial prescribed burn resulted in 2400–3000 Mg CO2?ha?1 total emissions. Simulated restoration following one 25-year oil palm rotation reduced total emissions to 440–1200 Mg CO2?ha?1, depending on climate. These results suggest that even under a very optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one third of the peat C lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered in the following 75 years if the site is restored. Emissions from a simulated land degradation scenario were most sensitive to climate, with total emissions ranging from 230 to 10,600 Mg CO2?ha?1 over 100 years for the wettest and driest dry season scenarios, respectively. The large difference was driven by increased fire probability. Therefore, peat fire suppression is an effective management tool to maintain tropical peatland C stocks in the near term and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts. In total, we estimate emissions from current cleared peatlands and peatlands converted to oil palm in Southeast Asia to be 8.7 Gt CO2 over 100 years with a moderate twenty-first century climate. These emissions could be minimized by effective fire suppression and hydrological restoration.  相似文献   

8.
Forest ecosystems represent the dominant form of land cover in the northeastern United States and are heavily relied upon by the region’s residents as a source of fuel, fiber, structural materials, clean water, economic vitality, and recreational opportunities. Although predicted changes in climate have important implications for a number of ecosystem processes, our present understanding of their long-term effects is poor. In this study, we used the PnET-CN model of forest carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and water cycling to evaluate the effects of predicted changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on forest growth, C exchange, water runoff, and nitrate ( $ {\text{NO}}^{ - }_{3} $ ) leaching at five forest research sites across the northeastern U.S. We used four sets of statistically downscaled climate predictions from two general circulation models (the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Parallel Climate Model) and two scenarios of future CO2 concentrations. A series of model experiments was conducted to examine the effects of future temperature, precipitation, CO2, and various assumptions regarding the physiological response of forests to these changes. Results indicate a wide range of predicted future growth rates. Increased growth was predicted across deciduous sites under most future conditions, while growth declines were predicted for spruce forests under the warmest scenarios and in some deciduous forests when CO2 fertilization effects were absent. Both climate and rising CO2 contributed to predicted changes, but their relative importance shifted from CO2-dominated to climate-dominated from the first to second half of the twenty-first century. Predicted runoff ranged from no change to a slight decrease, depending on future precipitation and assumptions about stomatal response to CO2. Nitrate leaching exhibited variable responses, but was highest under conditions that imposed plant stress with no physiological effects of CO2. Although there are considerable uncertainties surrounding predicted responses to climate change, these results provide a range of possible outcomes and highlight interactions among processes that are likely to be important. Such information can be useful to scientists and land managers as they plan on means of examining and responding to the effects of climate change.  相似文献   

9.
Fossil fuel combustion and many industrial processes generate gaseous emissions that contain a number of toxic organic pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2) which contribute to climate change and atmospheric pollution. There is a need for green and sustainable solutions to remove air pollutants, as opposed to conventional techniques which can be expensive, consume additional energy and generate further waste. We developed a novel integrated bioreactor combined with recyclable iron oxide nano/micro-particle adsorption interfaces, to remove CO2, and undesired organic air pollutants using natural particles, while generating oxygen. This semi-continuous bench-scale photo-bioreactor was shown to successfully clean up simulated emission streams of up to 45% CO2 with a conversion rate of approximately 4% CO2 per hour, generating a steady supply of oxygen (6 mmol/hr), while nanoparticles effectively remove several undesired organic by-products. We also showed algal waste of the bioreactor can be used for mercury remediation. We estimated the potential CO2 emissions that could be captured from our new method for three industrial cases in which, coal, oil and natural gas were used. With a 30% carbon capture system, the reduction of CO2 was estimated to decrease by about 420,000, 320,000 and 240,000 metric tonnes, respectively for a typical 500 MW power plant. The cost analysis we conducted showed potential to scale-up, and the entire system is recyclable and sustainable. We further discuss the implications of usage of this complete system, or as individual units, that could provide a hybrid option to existing industrial setups.  相似文献   

10.
Crop derived biofuels such as (bio)ethanol are increasingly applied for automotive purposes. They have, however, a relatively low efficiency in converting solar energy into automotive power. The outcome of life cycle studies concerning ethanol as to fossil fuel inputs and greenhouse gas emissions associated with such inputs depend strongly on the assumptions made regarding e.g. allocation, inclusion of upstream processes and estimates of environmentally relevant in- and outputs. Peer reviewed studies suggest that CO2 emissions linked to life cycle fossil fuel input are typically about 2.1–3.0 kg CO2 kg−1 starch-derived ethanol. When biofuel production involves agricultural practices that are common in Europe there are net losses of carbon from soil and emissions of the greenhouse gas N2O. Dependent on choices regarding allocation, they may, for wheat (starch) be in the order of 0.6–2.5 kg CO2 equivalent kg−1 of ethanol. This makes ethanol derived from starch, or sugar crops, in Europe still less attractive for mitigating climate change. In case of wheat, changes in agricultural practice may reduce or reverse carbon loss from soils. When biofuel production from crops leads to expansion of cropland while reducing forested areas or grassland, added impetus will be given to climate change.  相似文献   

11.
The capacity to partition natural, indirect, and direct human-induced effects on terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks is necessary to be able to predict future terrestrial C dynamics and thus their influence on atmospheric CO2 growth. However, it will take a number of years before we can better attribute quantitative estimates of the contribution of various C processes to the net C balance. In a policy context, factoring out natural and indirect human-induced effects on C sources and sinks from the direct human-induced influences, is seen as a requirement of a C accounting approach that establishes a clear and unambiguous connection between human activities and the assignment of C credits and debits. We present options for factoring out various groups of influences including climate variability, CO2 and N fertilization, and legacies from forest management. These are: (i) selecting longer accounting or measurement periods to reduce the effects of inter-annual variability; (ii) correction of national inventories for inter-annual variability; (iii) use of activity-based accounting and C response curves; (iv) use of baseline scenarios or benchmarks at the national level; (v) stratification of the landscape into units with distinct average C stocks. Other, more sophisticated modeling approaches (e.g., demographic models in combination with forest inventories; process-based models) are possible options for future C accounting systems but their complexity and data requirements make their present adoption more difficult in an inclusive international C accounting system.  相似文献   

12.
Atmospheric nanoparticles are crucial components contributing to fine particulate matter(PM2.5), and therefore have significant effects on visibility, climate, and human health. Due to the unique role of atmospheric nanoparticles during the evolution process from gas-phase molecules to larger particles, a number of sophisticated experimental techniques have been developed and employed for online monitoring and characterization of the physical and chemical properties of atmospheric nanoparticles,...  相似文献   

13.
Rice (Oryza) is a staple food in China, and rice yield is inherently sensitive to climate change. It is of great regional and global importance to understand how and to what degree climate change will impact rice yields and to determine the adaptation options effectiveness for mitigating possible adverse impacts or for taking advantage of beneficial changes. The objectives of this study are to assess the climate change impact, the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect, and the adaptation strategy effectiveness on rice yields during future periods (2011–2099) under the newly released Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario in the Sichuan Basin, one of the most important rice production areas of China. For this purpose, the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model was applied to conduct simulation, based on high-quality meteorological, soil and agricultural experimental data. The modeling results indicated a continuing rice reduction in the future periods. Compared to that without incorporating of increased CO2 concentration, a CO2 fertilization effect could mitigate but still not totally offset the negative climate change impacts on rice yields. Three adaptive measures, including advancing planting dates, switching to current high temperature tolerant varieties, and breeding new varieties, could effectively offset the negative climate change impacts with various degrees. Our results will not only contribute to inform regional future agricultural adaptation decisions in the Sichuan Basin but also gain insight into the mechanism of regional rice yield response to global climate change and the effectiveness of widely practiced global thereby assisting with appropriate adaptive strategies.  相似文献   

14.
Air quality and related health effects are not only affected by policies directly addressed at air pollution but also by other environmental strategies such as climate mitigation. This study addresses how different climate policy pathways indirectly bear upon air pollution in terms of improved human health in Europe. To this end, we put in perspective mitigation costs and monetised health benefits of reducing PM2.5 (particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter) and ozone concentrations.Air quality in Europe and related health impacts were assessed using a comprehensive modelling chain, based on global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models together with a health impact assessment tool. This allows capturing both the impact of climate policy on emissions of air pollutants and the geophysical impact of climate change on air quality.Results are presented for projections at the 2050 horizon, for a set of consistent air pollution and climate policy scenarios, combined with population data from the UN's World Population Prospects, and are expressed in terms of morbidity and mortality impacts of PM2.5 and ozone pollution and their monetised damage equivalent.The analysis shows that enforcement of current European air quality policies would effectively reduce health impacts from PM2.5 in Europe even in the absence of climate policies (life years lost from the exposure to PM2.5 decrease by 78% between 2005 and 2050 in the reference scenario), while impacts for ozone depend on the ambition level of international climate policies. A move towards stringent climate policies on a global scale, in addition to limiting global warming, creates co-benefits in terms of reduced health impacts (68% decrease in life years lost from the exposure to PM2.5 and 85% decrease in premature deaths from ozone in 2050 in the mitigation scenario relative to the reference scenario) and air pollution cost savings (77%) in Europe. These co-benefits are found to offset at least 85% of the additional cost of climate policy in this region.  相似文献   

15.
With growing evidence on how climate change impacts human health, public health agencies should develop adaptation programs focused on the impacts predicted to affect their jurisdictions. However, recent research indicates that public health agencies in the United States have done little to prepare the public for predicted climate change impacts, largely due in response to a lack of resources and priority. This study surveyed Environmental Health (EH) Directors across the United States to determine the extent to which individual level attitudes and beliefs influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programming in a department. The results indicate that an EH Director’s perception of the health risk posed by climate change explained 27% of the variance in the number of climate change impacts being addressed. Furthermore, the study found that environmental attitude and political views made strong, unique contributions in explaining the variance in risk perception. The results provide evidence that individual-level attitudes and beliefs, as well as organizational-level barriers influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programs in public health agencies. As a result, increasing EH Directors’ perception of risk by highlighting the likelihood and severity of localized impacts may increase the adoption of adaptation programming despite existing organizational barriers (e.g., lack of resources). Given the fact that risk perception has been shown to influence behavior across cultures, these findings are also useful for understanding the influence of individual decision makers on public health programming around the world.  相似文献   

16.
Electric utilities in the US have initiated forestry projects to conserve energy and to offset carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In 1995, 40 companies raised US$2.5 million to establish the non-profit UtiliTree Carbon Company which is now sponsoring eight projects representing a mix of rural tree planting, forest preservation, forest management and research efforts at both domestic (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Oregon) and international sites (Belize and Malaysia). The projects include extensive external verification. Such forestry projects — properly documented, monitored and verified — should be a component of domestic and international strategies to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, due to GHG benefits, cost-effectiveness and many other environmental benefits (e.g., related to habitat, erosion and biodiversity). These projects on average are projected to manage CO2 at a cost of about US $1 per ton. Experts have determined through a series of technical workshops and projects that GHG benefits can be accurately quantified for most types of forestry projects and, in fact, forestry projects in general present no greater challenges than energy-related projects. Near-term policy decision-making related to CO2 management via forestry is discussed.  相似文献   

17.
As one of the largest human activities, World Expo is an important source of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG), and the GHG emission and other environmental impacts of the Expo Shanghai 2010, where around 59,397 tons of waste was generated during 184 Expo running days, were assessed by life cycle assessment (LCA). Two scenarios, i.e., the actual and expected figures of the waste sector, were assessed and compared, and 124.01 kg CO2-equivalent (CO2-eq.), 4.43 kg SO2-eq., 4.88 kg NO3--eq., and 3509 m3 water per ton tourist waste were found to be released in terms of global warming (GW), acidification (AC), nutrient enrichment (NE) and spoiled groundwater resources (SGWR), respectively. The total GHG emission was around 3499 ton CO2-eq. from the waste sector in Expo Park, among which 86.47% was generated during the waste landfilling at the rate of 107.24 kg CO2-eq., and CH4, CO and other hydrocarbons (HC) were the main contributors. If the waste sorting process had been implemented according to the plan scenario, around 497 ton CO2-eq. savings could have been attained. Unlike municipal solid waste, with more organic matter content, an incineration plant is more suitable for tourist waste disposal due to its high heating value, from the GHG reduction perspective.  相似文献   

18.
The effects of elevated CO2 concentration on the growth, yield and quality of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. ‘Sport’), barley (Hordeum vulgare, cv. ‘Thule’) and oats (Avena sativa, cv. ‘Kapp’) were studied. The study was performed from 20 April to 24 August in ten field chamber units each of 9 m2 in a cool (12.6°C) maritime climate under long days (14.6–18.1 h), on the southwest coast of Norway (59°N, 6°E). The total biomass increased at high CO2 concentration, by 11% and 20% in wheat and barley, respectively. The proportion of small grains increased by 6% in wheat and 26% in barley, but the total grain yield was not affected. The weight of chaff increased by 9% and 19% in wheat and barley, respectively. Plant height was significantly reduced during the growing season at elevated CO2, by 8–19% in barley and by 9–25% in oats until 6 July when no significant difference in height was found. After 6 July, barley plants at elevated CO2 were significantly taller than at ambient CO2 concentration and oats were not affected. Elongation in wheat was not affected by CO2 concentration at any time in the growing season. No difference in developmental rate could be detected between plants at normal and elevated CO2 concentrations. The protein content of the grain decreased by 8% in barley, but was not significantly affected in the other species.  相似文献   

19.
There was a widespread misconception about the causes of vegetation and land fires in Indonesia. At a certain point, the public perceived that fires and the associated haze pollution were primarily caused by smallholders' agricultural activities. In fact, there was a variety of land-use activities including large-scale land clearing following deforestation for further land development. El Niño events and the associated dry weather were sometimes quoted by officials and the media as the cause of fires. The fire episodes from 1980 to 2000 were analysed in connection with climate anomalies and the implementation of land-use policies related to forest conversions. The analysis employs long-term climatic and sea surface temperature data to reconstruct climate distributions and anomalies including Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR). In this study, the terrestrial carbon emissions from vegetation fires were estimated based on official statistical data on area burnt. The possible incentives for sustainable land management were discussed in the light of fire prevention. The underlying cause neglected in the discussion of Indonesian vegetation fires was forest and land development policy. Legitimated in the early 1980s, it drove massive forest conversions and the use of fires for land clearing. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provided dry weather suitable for biomass burning and widespread fire, but it was hardly the cause of fires. The estimate of area burnt in the big fires in 1997 was about 11.6 Mha, resulting in carbon release of 1.45 Gt, equivalent to 0.73 ppmv of CO2, or almost half the annual global atmospheric CO2 growth. Based on the current carbon market price such emissions by the 1997 fire episode were worth around US$ 3.6 billion.  相似文献   

20.
Plant communities play an important role in the C-sink function of peatlands. However, global change and local perturbations are expected to modify peatland plant communities, leading to a shift from Sphagnum mosses to vascular plants. Most studies have focused on the direct effects of modification in plant communities or of global change (such as climate warming, N fertilization) in peatlands without considering interactions between these disturbances that may alter peatlands' C function. We set up a mesocosm experiment to investigate how Greenhouse Gas (CO2, CH4, N2O) fluxes, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved N (TN) contents are affected by a shift from Sphagnum mosses to Molinia caerulea dominated peatlands combined with N fertilization. Increasing N deposition did not alter the C fluxes (CO2 exchanges, CH4 emissions) or DOC content. The lack of N effect on the C cycle seems due to the capacity of Sphagnum to efficiently immobilize N. Nevertheless, N supply increased the N2O emissions, which were also controlled by the plant communities with the presence of Molinia caerulea reducing N2O emissions in the Sphagnum mesocosms. Our study highlights the role of the vegetation composition on the C and N fluxes in peatlands and their responses to the N deposition. Future research should now consider the climate change in interaction to plants community modifications due to their controls of peatland sensitivity to environmental conditions.  相似文献   

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