Development of Quantitative Methods For Spill Response Planning: A Trajectory Analysis Planner

In planning for response to oil spills, a great deal of information must be assimilated. Typically, geophysical flow patterns, ocean turbulence, complex chemical processes, ecological setting, fisheries activities, economics of land use, and engineering constraints on response equipment all need to be considered. This presents a formidable analysis problem. It can be shown, however, that if an appropriate set of evaluation data is available, an objective function and appropriate constraints can be formulated. From these equations, the response problem can be cast in terms of game theory or decision analysis and an optimal solution can be obtained using common scarce-resource allocation methods. The optimal solution obtained by this procedure maximizes the expected return over all possible implementations of a given set of response options. While considering the development of an optimal spill response, it is useful to consider whether (in the absence of complete data) implementing some subset of these methods is possible to provide relevant and useful information for the spill planning process, even though it may fall short of a statistically optimal solution. In this work we introduce a trajectory analysis planning (TAP) methodology that can provide a cohesive framework for integrating physical transport processes, environmental sensitivity of regional sites, and potential response options. This trajectory analysis planning methodology can be shown to implement a significant part of the game theory analysis and provide `minimum regret' strategy advice, without actually carrying out the optimization procedures.     

Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) Analysis in Support of Environmental Impact Assessment Offshore Namibia

The work reported here encompasses analyses of specific potential spill scenarios for oil exploration activity planned offshore of Namibia. The analyses are carried out with the SINTEF Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) 3-dimensional model system. A spill scenario using 150 m³ of marine diesel demonstrates the rapidity with which such a spill will dissipate naturally, even in light winds. Vertical and horizontal mixing bring subsurface hydrocarbon concentrations to background levels within a few days. A hypothetical 10 day blowout scenario releasing 11,000 bbl per day of light crude oil is investigated in terms of the potential for delivering oil to selected bird and marine mammal areas along the Namibian coast. Worst case scenarios are selected to investigate the potential mitigating effects of planned oil spill response actions. Mechanical recovery significantly reduces, and in some cases eliminates, potential environmental consequences of these worst case scenarios. Dispersant application from fixed wing aircraft further reduces the potential surface effects. The analysis supplies an objective basis for net environmental analysis of the planned response strategies.     

How shell cleaned up a 400,000-gallon oil spill

On April 23, 1988, approximately 9,500 barrels (400,000 gallons) of San Joaquin Valley crude oil leaked from an aboveground storage tank at Shell Oil Company's Martinez Manufacturing Complex in Martinez, California and entered Suisun Bay, an important recreation area. This article describes the remediation techniques Shell used to protect and clean up the Bay's oiled marshes, sloughs, rocky shores, marinas, and sandy beaches, and discusses the main methods of oil spill response, site-specific factors that must be considered in choosing remediation techniques, the interaction between Shell and government agencies, and the costs associated with the spill. The cleanup's total cost was approximately $8.3 million, which did not include private claims and claims handling costs; Shell also signed a separate consent decree for $19.75 million with the state of California and the federal government. This spill and its aftermath emphasize the need for preparation that facilitates response actions, improves the chances for cooperation between responsible parties and government agencies, minimizes the time needed for remediation, lowers cleanup costs, and limits natural resource damage claims and penalties.     

South Arne Field Development: An Environmental Impact Assessment of Oil Spills

The South Arne field being developed by Amerada Hess A/S is located in 60 m water depth approximately 200 km from the Danish mainland, in block 5604/29 of the Danish sector of the North Sea.As part of the development of the field, a comprehensive environmental impact assessment has been carried out, including the assessment of the impact from oil spills. The Danish authorities required that a ‘worst case’ oil spill be chosen as the basis for the assessment on birds and aquatic organisms including plankton, fish eggs and larvae and benthos.A well blow-out at the surface was chosen as the worst case for the impact on birds, and a seabed blow-out for aquatic organisms.The oil spill modelling was carried out with the DEEPBLOW, SLIKMAP and OSCAR models from SINTEF. The modelling identified environmentally sensitive areas which could potentially be influenced by an oil spill. These included the Dogger Bank, western Skagerrak, south-western Norwegian Trench, the eastern German Bight and the Wadden Sea.Historical meteorological and hydrodynamic scenarios were chosen from a long period of records to ensure that the plume passed through the environmentally sensitive resource areas.For birds, a scan of the literature and available databases was made to determine the numbers and species of birds in the areas swept by the surface slick, the number of fatalities was estimated and finally the recovery time for each species population was estimated.The impact on aquatic organisms was estimated using the predicted environmental concentration/predicted no effect concentration (PEC/PNEC) method of the CHARM model. This method is normally applied to continuous discharges, but here has been used to estimate the impact of a transient pollution cloud resulting from an oil spill.     

Chemical and Ecotoxicological Characterisation of Oil–Water Systems

An ongoing chemical and ecotoxicological study of Water Accommodated Fraction of oils is presented and the preliminary findings are discussed. The study aims at obtaining improved and realistic data on potential environmental effects of various oils released and weathered at sea. Such data will be used for improving algorithms in present fate and effect models for damage assessment studies and “Net Environmental Benefit Analysis” of response alternatives in various spill scenarios. Preliminary results show that models used to assess effects in the water column will need to resolve the water soluble fraction of oils into more than one single bulk parameter to produce realistic estimates of effects.     

Past in situ Burning Possibilities

This study evaluated the feasibility of conducting in situ burning (ISB) using current technology on post-1967 major oil spills over 10 000 barrels in North America and over 50 000 barrels in South America and Europe. A diverse set of 141 spills representing various combinations of parameters affecting spill responses (e.g., spill size, oil type, weather conditions, sea temperature, and geographic location) were evaluated using four “Phase I” criteria: Distance to populated area, oil weathering, logistics, and weather conditions. In Phase I, a spill that failed to meet one of the four criteria was considered an “unsuccessful” candidate for ISB. In total, 47 of the 141 spills passed the Phase I analysis. The potential effect of the plume on populated areas was the most significant of the four Phase I criteria; 59 of the 141 spills did not pass Phase I because the incident occurred near a sizable city. Spills that met all four criteria were further evaluated using a “Phase II” analysis that applied additional criteria and considered individual spill circumstances to determine if the spill should be rated as a “successful”, “marginal call”, or “unsuccessful” ISB candidate. Fourteen spills were ultimately determined successful in the Phase II analysis, and 12 were designated marginal calls.     

The technology windows-of-opportunity for marine oil spill response as related to oil weathering and operations

This paper identifies and estimates time periods as ‘windows-of-opportunity’ where specific response methods, technologies, equipment, or products are more effective in clean-up operations for several oils. These windows have been estimated utilizing oil weathering and technology performance data as tools to optimize effectiveness in marine oil spill response decision-making. The windows will also provide data for action or no-action alternatives. Crude oils and oil products differ greatly in physical and chemical properties, and these properties tend to change significantly during and after a spill with oil aging (weathering). Such properties have a direct bearing on oil recovery operations, influencing the selection of response methods and technologies applicable for clean up, including their effectiveness and capacity, which can influence the time and cost of operations and the effects on natural resources.The changes and variations in physical and chemical properties over time can be modeled using data from weathering studies of specific oils. When combined with performance data for various equipment and materials, tested over a range of weathering stages of oils, windows-of-opportunity can be estimated for spill response decision-making. Under experimental conditions discussed in this paper, windows-of-opportunity have been identified and estimated for four oils (for which data are available) under a given set of representative environmental conditions. These ‘generic’ windows have been delineated for the general categories of spill response namely: (1) dispersants, (2) in situ burning, (3) booms, (4) skimmers, (5) sorbents, and (6) oil-water separators. To estimate windows-of-opportunity for the above technologies (except booms), the IKU Oil Weathering Model was utilized to predict relationships—with 5 m s⁻¹ wind speed and seawater temperatures of 15°C.The window-of-opportunity for the dispersant (Corexit 9527^®) with Alaska North Slope (ANS) oil was estimated from laboratory data to be the first 26 h. A period of ‘reduced’ dispersibility, was estimated to last from 26–120 h. The oil was considered to be no longer dispersible if treated for the first time after 120 h. The most effective time window for dispersing Bonnic Light was 0–2 h, the time period of reduced dispersibility was 2–4 h, and after 4 h the oil was estimated to be no longer dispersible. These windows-of-opportunity are based on the most effective use of a dispersant estimated from laboratory dispersant effectiveness studies using fresh and weathered oils. Laboratory dispersant effectiveness data cannot be directly utilized to predict dispersant performance during spill response, however, laboratory results are of value for estimating viscosity and pour point limitations and for guiding the selection of an appropriate product during contingency planning and response. In addition, the window of opportunity for a dispersant may be lengthened if the dispersant contains an emulsion breaking agent or multiple applications of dispersant are utilized. Therefore, a long-term emulsion breaking effect may increase the effectiveness of a dispersant and lengthen the window-of-opportunity.The window-of-opportunity of in situ burning (based upon time required for an oil to form an emulsion with 50% water content) was estimated to be approximately 0–36 h for ANS oil and 0–1 h for Bonnie Light oil after being spilled. The estimation of windows-of-opportunity for offshore booms is constrained by the fact that many booms available on the market undergo submergence at speeds of less than 2 knots. The data suggest that booms with buoyancy to weight ratios less than 8:1 may submerge at speeds within the envelope in which they could be expected to operate. This submergence is an indication of poor wave conformance, caused by reduction of freeboard and reserve net buoyancy within the range of operation. The windows-of-opportunity for two selected skimming principles (disk and brush), were estimated using modeled oil viscosity data for BCF 17 and BCF 24 in combination with experimental performance data developed as a function of viscosity. These windows were estimated to be within 3–10 h (disk skimmer) and after 10 h (brush skimmer) for BCF 17. Whereas for BCF 24, it is within 2–3 d (disk skimmer) and after 3 d (brush skimmer).For sorbents, an upper viscosity limit for an effective and practical use has in studies been found to be approximately 15,000 cP, which is the viscosity range of some Bunker C oils. Using viscosity data for the relative heavy oils, BCF 17 and BCF 24 (API gravity 17 and 24), the time windows for a sorbent (polyamine flakes) was estimated to be 0–4 and 0–10 d, respectively. With BCF 24, the effectiveness of polyamine flakes, was reduced to 50% after 36 h, although it continued to adsorb for up to 10 d. For BCF 17, the effectiveness of polyamine flakes was reduced to 50% after 12 h, although it continued to adsorb for up to 4 d. The windows-of-opportunity for several centrifuged separators based upon the time period to close the density gap between weathered oils and seawater to less than 0.025 g ml⁻¹ (which is expected to be an end-point for effective use of centrifugal separation technology), were estimated to be 0–18 (ANS) and 0–24 h (Bonnie Light) after the spill. Utilizing the windows-of-opportunity concept, the combined information from a dynamic oil weathering model and a performance technology data base can become a decision-making tool; identifying and defining the windows of effectiveness of different response methods and equipment under given environmental conditions. Specific research and development needs are identified as related to further delineation of windows-of-opportunity.     

Introduction/Overview to In Situ Burning of Oil Spills

In situ burning is an oil spill response technique or tool that involves the controlled ignition and burning of the oil at or near the spill site on the surface of the water or in a marsh (see Lindau et al., this volume). Although controversial, burning has been shown on several recent occasions to be an appropriate oil spill countermeasure. When used early in a spill before the oil weathers and releases its volatile components, burning can remove oil from the waters surface very efficiently and at very high rates. Removal efficiencies for thick slicks can easily exceed 95% (Advanced In Situ Burn Course, Spiltec, Woodinville, WA, 1997). In situ burning offers a logistically simple, rapid, inexpensive and if controlled a relatively safe means for reducing the environmental impacts of an oil spill. Because burning rapidly changes large quantities of oil into its primary combustion products (water and carbon dioxide), the need for collection, storage, transport and disposal of recovered material is greatly reduced. The use of towed fire containment boom to capture, thicken and isolate a portion of a spill, followed by ignition, is far less complex than the operations involved in mechanical recovery, transfer, storage, treatment and disposal (The Science, Technology, and Effects of Controlled Burning of Oil Spills at Sea, Marine Spill Response Corporation, Washington, DC, 1994).However, there is a limited window-of-opportunity (or time period of effectiveness) to conduct successful burn operations. The type of oil spilled, prevailing meteorological and oceanographic (environmental) conditions and the time it takes for the oil to emulsify define the window (see Buist, this volume and Nordvik et al., this volume). Once spilled, oil begins to form a stable emulsion: when the water content exceeds 25% most slicks are unignitable. In situ burning is being viewed with renewed interest as a response tool in high latitude waters where other techniques may not be possible or advisable due to the physical environment (extreme low temperatures, ice-infested waters), or the remoteness of the impacted area. Additionally, the magnitude of the spill may quickly overwhelm the deployed equipment necessitating the consideration of other techniques in the overall response strategy (The Science, Technology, and Effects of Controlled Burning of Oil Spills at Sea, Marine Spill Response Corporation, Washington, DC, 1994; Proceedings of the In Situ Burning of Oil Spills Workshop. NIST. SP934. MMS. 1998, p. 31; Basics of Oil Spill Cleanup, Lewis Publishers, Washington, DC, 2001, p. 233). This paper brings together the current knowledge on in situ burning and is an effort to gain regulatory acceptance for this promising oil spill response tool.     

The Use of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output in Spill Modelling

Numerical weather prediction model output may be used in simulating the movement of water borne pollutants with little significant loss of accuracy in comparison to the use of observed wind data of equivalent temporal resolution. Spatial variations in the instantaneous wind field over the region of influence of a spill were found to be less significant than the uncertainties in the wind at a single point. However, temporal variations in the wind must be included in the spill simulations, with a minimum recommended resolution of 3 h.     

Modeling natural attenuation of petroleum hydrocarbon contamination using alternate electron acceptors: Case study comparing bioplume iii with BIOSCREEN

Natural attenuation holds great promise as a cost‐effective means of remedying groundwater contamination at petroleum spill sites: this is particularly true at sites with sufficient background concentrations of alternate electron acceptors (nitrate and/or sulfate). The study reported in this article compared the results of a new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) numerical model (BIOPLUME III) with an updated EPA analytical model (BIOSCREEN Version 1.4) used to predict natural attenuation at an underground fuel spill site in Oklahoma. High background sulfate concentrations were shown to result in unrealistic predictions from both BIOSCREEN and BIOPLUME III. BIOSCREEN could be easily used with a data set not significantly enlarged from that used in a routine leaking fuel tank investigation. BIOPLUME III was much more difficult to use and did not yield reliable results. Results of this study indicate that the additional complexity of the BIOPLUME III model is not justified for simple sites.     

Comparative occurrence rates for offshore oil spills

Estimates of occurrence rates for offshore oil spills are useful for analysis of potential oil spill impacts and for oil spill response contingency planning. As the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (U.S. Public Law 101–380, 18 August 1990) becomes fully implemented, estimates of oil spill occurrence will become even more important to natural resource trustees and to responsible parties involved in oil and gas activities. Oil spill occurrence rate estimates have been revised based on U.S. Outer Continental Shelf platform and pipeline spill data (1964–1992) and worldwide tanker spill data (1974–1992). These spill rates are expressed and normalized in terms of number of spills per volume of crude oil handled. The revisions indicate that estimates for the platform spill occurrence rates declined, the pipeline spill occurrence rates increased, and the worldwide tanker spill occurrence rates remained unchanged. Calculated for the first time were estimates of tanker and barge spill rates for spills occuring in U.S. waters, and spill occurrence rates for spills of North Slope crude oil transported by tanker from Valdez, Alaska. All estimates of spill occurrence rates were restricted to spills greater than or equal to 159 m³ (1000 barrels).     

Quantitative analysis of alternate oil spill response strategies using OSCAR

A three-dimensional numerical model of the physical and chemical behavior and fate of spilled oil has been coupled to a model of oil spill response actions. This coupled system of models for Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR), provides a tool for quantitative, objective assessment of alternative oil spill response strategies. Criteria for response effectiveness can be either physical (‘How much oil comes ashore?’ or ‘How much oil have we recovered?’) or biological (‘How many biologically sensitive areas were affected?’ or ‘What exposures will fish eggs and larvae experience in the water column?’). The oil spill combat module in the simulator represents individual sets of equipment, with capabilities and deployment strategies being specified explicitly by the user. The coupling to the oil spill model allows the mass balance of the spill to be affected appropriately in space and time by the cleanup operation as the simulation proceeds. An example application is described to demonstrate system capabilities, which include evaluation of the potential for both surface and subsurface environmental effects. This quantitative, objective approach to analysis of alternative response strategies provides a useful tool for designing more optimal, functional, rational, and cost-effective oil spill contingency solutions for offshore platforms, and coastal terminals and refineries.     

Overview and future trends in oil spill remote sensing

Remote sensing has great potential to provide data to improve oil spill response efforts. There are a number of sensors available that have been proven capable of detecting oil on water and measuring some of its properties. There is no single sensor that provides all the data needed, and hence a combination of sensors must be used. Even if finances and aircraft load capacity were unlimited, there are still many parameters of an oil slick that cannot be measured by remote sensing. This paper describes the cyrrently available sensors and their method of operation and outlines some new developments that have the potential to increase the amount of data available from an airborne remote sensing operation.     

Lessons learned outfitting the U.S. Coast Guard with oil pollution equipment

Lessons learned procuring U.S.$30 500 000 of oil pollution recovery equipment for the United States Coast Guard (USCG) in response to requirements of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA-90) are presented. A generic requirements analysis and a selection process useful for making equipment acquisitions and staging site selections are described. Response mission, oil spill threat, response area peculiarities, available resources, equipment capabilities, training requirements and life cycle costs are all factors which must be carefully considered in outfitting a response organization. A method to ensure you obtain quality equipment which meets your functional requirements is outlined. Long range concerns about logistics support, training and maintenance are also important considerations.Leveraging existing resources such as existing USCG vessels, commercial vessels available on short notice for lease and the original oil response equipment inventory of the two USCG Strike Teams proved to be extremely cost effective. Selection of a vessel of opportunity skimming system (VOSS) and outfitting replacement offshore buoy tenders with an on-board spilled oil recovery system (SORS) eliminated the costly option of procuring dedicated pollution response vessels which are generally underutilized as a single mission platform. A first article field and factory acceptance testing program ensured all equipment functioned as specified, eliminating costly errors. This process also provided valuable customer input and significant equipment improvements before production started. Quality assurance testing and Government oversight ensured production units were fabricated properly with specified materials identical to the approved first articles adding reliability to the entire delivered system. Staging equipment at three Strike Teams and 19 sites near existing Coast Guard buoy tenders best used the available personnel and vessel resources adjacent to primary oil spill threat areas.     

Looking to the Future––Setting the Agenda for Oil Spill Prevention,Preparedness and Response in the 21st Century

The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90) was largely driven by the catastrophic EXXON VALDEZ tanker spill and several other major tanker spills that followed in 1989. Under the OPA 90 mandate, the US Coast Guard, in partnership with other Federal agencies and industry have implemented a number of initiatives that have significantly enhanced the national oil spill prevention, preparedness and response capability. Declining trends in the volume of oil spilled into US waters indicates that these initiatives are at least in some measure successful.The Coast Guard is now concerned about what the future may hold in terms of oil pollution threats, and prevention, preparedness and response program shortcomings and opportunities in the future. To address this issue, the Coast Guard, in partnership with other National Response Team agencies and industry, is conducting a Broad-Based Programmatic Risk Assessment to develop a comprehensive vision and strategy for the Oil Spill Prevention, Preparedness and Response (OSPPR) Program in the 21st Century. This study will characterize the current and emerging oil spill threats by source category, assess the potential impacts of these threats to define overall risk, and examine the current and projected effectiveness of OSPPR initiatives in minimizing these risks. Key issues, problems and focus areas will be identified and targeted for follow-on risk analysis and management activities by the Coast Guard and agency and industry stakeholders.     

Influence of Traffic Emissions Estimation Variability on Urban Air Quality Modelling

The main objective of this work is to analyse how uncertainties in emission data of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), originated from road traffic, influence the model prediction of ozone (O₃) concentration fields. Different methods to estimate emissions were applied and results were compared in order to obtain their variability. Based on these data, different emission scenarios were compiled for each pollutant considering the minimum and the maximum values of the estimated emission range. These scenarios were used as input to the MAR-IV mesoscale modelling system. Simulations have been performed for a summer day in the Northern Region of Portugal. The different approaches to estimate NO_x and VOC traffic emissions show a significant variability of absolute values and of their spatial distribution. Comparison of modelling results obtained from the two scenarios presents a dissimilarity of 37% for ozone concentration fields as a response of the system to a variation in the input emission data of 63% for NO_x and 59% for VOC. Far beyond all difficulties and approximations, the developed methodology to build up an emission data base shows to be consistent and an useful tool in order to turn applicable an air quality model. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of the model to input data should be considered when it is used as a decision support tool.     

Update of Comparative Occurrence Rates for Offshore Oil Spills

Estimates of occurrence rates for offshore oil spills are useful for analyzing potential oil-spill impacts and for oil-spill response contingency planning. With the implementation of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (US Public Law 101-380, August 18, 1990), estimates of oil-spill occurrence became even more important to natural resource trustees and to responsible parties involved in oil and gas activities.Oil-spill occurrence rate estimates have been revised based on US Outer Continental Shelf (US OCS) platform and pipeline spill data (1964 through 1999), worldwide tanker spill data (1974 through 1999), and barge spill data for US waters (1974–1999). These spill rates are expressed and normalized in terms of number of spills per volume of crude oil handled. All estimates of spill occurrence rates were restricted to spills greater than or equal to 1000 barrels (159 m³, 159 kl, 136 metric tonnes, 42,000 US gallons).The revisions compared to the previously published rates calculated through 1992 (Anderson and LaBelle, 1994) indicate that estimates for the US OCS platform spill occurrence rates continue to decline, primarily because no spills have occurred since 1980. The US OCS pipeline spill occurrence rates for spills greater than or equal to 1000 barrels remained essentially unchanged. However, the rate for larger OCS pipeline spills (greater than or equal to 10,000 barrels) has decreased significantly. Worldwide tanker spill rates, rates for tanker spills in US waters, and rates for barge spills in US waters decreased significantly. The most recent 15-year estimates for 1985–1999 (compared to rates for the entire data series) showed that rates for US OCS platforms, tankers, and barges continued to decline.