《2019年实现可持续发展目标所需转变及其指数和指示板全球报告》分析与政策建议

联合国可持续发展解决方案网络与贝塔斯曼基金会联合发布的《2019年实现可持续发展目标所需转变及其指数和指示板全球报告》评估了162个国家和地区17项可持续发展目标(SDGs)的实现情况,在全球具有影响力。本文分析了该报告的SDG指数和指示板构建的方法学变化及新增的SDG Trend评估情况,重点针对国别、区域层面的SDGs实施进展以及中国的进展状况进行深入分析,认为OECD、东亚、拉丁美洲、非洲等区域可持续发展目标实现进展各有特征,中国总排名上升但各项SDG子目标实施进展差异大,生态环境领域仍面临严峻挑战。提出中国要加快推进构建本土化的国家和地区可持续发展目标体系、对接"一带一路"倡议与联合国2030年议程等政策建议。     

National pathways to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): A comparative review of scenario modelling tools

The recently-adopted global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will have significant implications for national development planning in both developed and developing countries in the post-2015 period to 2030. Integrated, nationally-owned SDG strategies will be at the centre of national efforts to implement the new sustainable development agenda. The long-run processes and systems perspective that are inherent in the SDGs present complex analytical problems for policymakers and analysts. Scenario analysis and quantitative modelling will be important analytical tools to support national sustainable development planning, and there is an increasingly sophisticated suite of models available to decision makers. This paper reviews and assesses a broad range of different quantitative models that have the potential to support national development planning for the SDGs. The study develops a typology and inventory of 80 different models, and then reviews the comparative strengths, weaknesses and general utility of different models through an initial screening and subsequent multi-criteria analysis of short-listed models. Current gaps in model capabilities are highlighted in the context of providing analytical support for national development planning for the SDGs. While some existing models are particularly relevant, it is unlikely that an ideal model can analyse all SDG targets and variables of interest within a single modelling framework. Top-down ‘macro framework’ models are likely to be more useful for undertaking system-level or economy-wide scenario analysis driven by the national long-term goals and targets, and for exploring trade-offs and synergies among sectors. Bottom-up sectoral models will be able to support far more detailed option-level impact analysis of concrete interventions, technologies and investments. Combining both approaches within an analytical framework will provide a robust approach for analysis and decision-making. The results highlight a range of potential gaps in current modelling capabilities, and provide some new tools to assist with model selection.     

易地扶贫搬迁对西藏典型迁入村可持续发展的影响

基于联合国2030年可持续发展目标（UN-SDGs）,融入生态系统服务,建立了面向易地扶贫搬迁政策的村落和农牧户尺度可持续发展评价指标体系,定量分析了西藏典型易地扶贫搬迁迁入村——白朗村及村内农牧户在搬迁前后可持续发展目标实现状况变化。结果表明：在村落尺度,易地扶贫搬迁实施后迁入村在消除贫困（SDG 1）、能源可持续（SDG 7）和可持续住区（SDG 11）三项目标下的可持续发展指标数值较搬迁前显著增加,但可持续发展指数总分降低2.91%;易地扶贫搬迁政策直接影响的农牧户收入、用水和交通等可持续发展指标的可持续发展指数贡献率从49.4%增加至54.23%,但政策间接影响的生态系统相关的指标,其可持续发展指数贡献率由50.6%降低至45.77%;在农牧户尺度,易地扶贫搬迁显著促进了搬迁农牧户消除贫困（SDG 1）和体面工作（SDG 8）目标的实现,且在村落资源总量有限、大量人口迁入的情况下原住农牧户各项可持续发展指标依然稳定增长。研究为白朗村搬迁后的管理和投入工作提供方向,并为未来其他地区搬迁工作中的土地利用规划制定和迁入人口数量的确定提供思路。     

可持续发展目标达成度对中国生态文明建设公众满意度的影响

自联合国可持续发展目标提出以来,学者们聚焦其达成度开展了大量的评估工作,以期揭示中国可持续发展过程中面临的问题和挑战,进而指导政府决策.已有评估指标的选择是“自上而下”的,普遍参照联合国建议.然而,在实际应用中,可持续发展评估结果是否与“自下而上”衡量政府绩效的另外一个重要标准“生态文明建设公众满意度”相匹配尚不明确,增加了政府决策的不确定性.因此,该研究以中国31个省级行政单位为样本(不包括港澳台地区数据),建立了可持续发展达成度梯度,利用滑动窗口结合线性回归等方法,分析了可持续发展目标达成度的两个维度(平均达成度和目标间均衡度)与生态文明建设公众满意度间的变化关系及其驱动机制.结果表明：(1)可持续发展评估的两个维度中,目标平均达成度与公众满意度之间无显著关系,目标间均衡度则与公众满意度呈正相关,特别是在较高可持续发展水平下(R2=0.36,P<0.01).(2)环境和经济指标是影响生态文明建设公众满意度的主要因素,环境质量的影响在可持续发展水平较高的阶段更加强烈.(3)经济发展和环境保护目标间的权衡关系制约了可持续发展状况相对较好省份的生态文明建设,也是决定可持续目标间均衡...     

Evaluating the impact of ecosystem service assessments on decision-makers

Ecosystem services support human livelihoods and economies but are declining in many places. Ecosystem service assessments estimate the benefits that nature provides to people and can be used to evaluate trade-offs in impacts and changes resulting from land use decisions. Such assessments can affect the capacity of decision-makers to make sustainable land use decisions, but the actual impact of such projects on decision-maker attitudes is almost entirely unstudied. We addressed this knowledge gap by evaluating the impact of an ecosystem service assessment on decision-makers in California. We asked how decision-makers’ understanding of and attitudes about ecosystem services changed “pre-” and “post-” assessments and between treatment groups where ecosystem services were assessed and a comparison group where ecosystem services were not assessed. Mixed methods included regression models to estimate the treatment effect of the assessment (using a difference-in-differences approach), as well as interviews and direct observations to further understand how decision-makers responded to the assessment. Regression results showed small increases relative to the comparison group in decision-maker understanding of ecosystem services and perceived relevance of ecosystem services to their work. Interviews confirmed that decision-makers learned specific ways that they could use ecosystem services in conservation and development decisions and believed that doing so would improve outcomes. These results demonstrate how ecosystem services assessments can facilitate a conceptual shift in the minds of decision-makers, which is a necessary ingredient for subsequent policy impact. Impact evaluation studies of this type − that estimate a counterfactual and explore rival explanations for observed outcomes − are needed to truly understand whether ecosystem service projects impact decision-makers and, ultimately, produce outcomes for environmental and human well-being.     

Relevance for decision making of spatially explicit,participatory scenarios for ecosystem services in an area of a high current demand

Participatory ecosystem services scenarios can be used to inform decision making on the sustainable or wise use of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES). To establish the plausibility and coherency of the recently constructed Biscay participatory scenarios, and to analyze policy options for improving sustainability of land use and the supply of ecosystem services, a spatially explicit analysis of land cover change was carried out. The modelling used an innovative methodology which included feedback from key stakeholders. Our study showed that scenario mapping can be a way of testing the credibility and internal consistency of scenarios, and a methodology for making them more coherent; it was also useful for highlighting land use trade-offs. The sustainability analysis for the ES supply side showed the benefits of promoting two land use/cover trends in the Biscay region: (i) an increase of sustainable arable land in the valley zones to reinforce biocapacity and self-provisioning while preserving agroecosystems’ ES flow; and (ii) natural forest regeneration in mountainous and other zones to increase carbon storage and sequestration while enhancing biodiversity and other ES flows. We argue that even if already protected public agro-forest lands may be the best places to start promoting these changes, additional measures are needed to involve private landowners and guarantee changes at a landscape level. Finally, we reflect on the need to make complementary analyses of ES supply and demand as a way of contributing to a broad sustainability agenda.     

Development of a facility-based environmental performance indicator related to sustainable development

Companies are increasingly interested in environmental performance indicators as a means of managing the degree to which environmental goals and objectives are implemented. Many companies have publicly endorsed goals associated with sustainable development, like the International Chamber of Commerce's (ICC) principles for sustainable development. There is a need for metrics that facilitate implementation of these principles at the facility level and for research metrics that measure management improvement. An existing environmental self-assessment management tool called ESAP by the Global Environmental Management Initiative has been modified to measure a facility's response to the ICC's 16 principles of sustainability. The new tool's focus was shifted to a practical, facility based and easily applied assessment of progress towards sustainable development as represented by the ICC's 16 principles of sustainability. The new tool was called the Green Management Assessment Tool or GMAT, pilot tested and used in a research setting. Such tools have value to companies that are interested in the strategic goals of sustainable development and struggle with shifting corporate goals and objectives to manufacturing operations at the facility level.     

The natural advantage of regions: linking sustainability,innovation, and regional development in Australia

The combined impacts of the financial crisis and climate change are driving the evolution of sustainable business and changing the way that governments plan for development. Markets are emerging for a range of environmentally orientated products and services as societies move (or lurch) towards reducing impacts and adapt to changing conditions. National governments are actively formulating policy and providing investment to develop green economies as one of the responses to the global financial crisis. Many of the political and economic drivers have been focused at the international and national scale, and while critical for setting the national framework for development, it often neglects the key role that regions and localities can play in ecological modernization. This paper explores two regional case studies in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, that are initiating shifts towards networks of sustainable businesses and communities and offers recommendations for further policy development. The focus of this paper is on the evolving regional sustainability market and its relationship to other social institutions including governments, communities and the individual. The unifying concept is the idea of the ‘natural advantage’, a model that integrates innovation and sustainability as a part of the regional development policy agenda.     

The governance of ecosystem services in river basins: An approach for structured data representation and analysis

River basins provide a wide range of ecosystem services important for human well-being. Ecosystem functions and their value to humans have been thoroughly studied. However, the role of governance characteristics for the sustainable management of ecosystem services has been largely ignored up to now. To close this gap, this article introduces the latest modifications to a database building on the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) that serve to study the relationship between water governance and management systems and their performance with regard to impacts on ecosystem services. This comprehensive approach facilitates structured data collection and representation in order to analyze single case studies or compare case studies regarding the governance and management of water resources and associated ecosystem services. It allows the user to investigate whether certain water governance characteristics, such as stakeholder involvement or vertical integration of governance levels, are associated with a change in the management of ecosystem services or a measurable change in their state. A simplified case from South Africa shows how the database modifications allow addressing links between governance and management processes on the one side and ecosystem services and the way they are handled on the other side. Applying the MTF database leads to evidence-based insights into best practices as well as failed management approaches and interventions. This in turn provides knowledge that can be transferred from science to practice supporting sustainable governance of ecosystem services.     

Conceptualizing and operationalizing human wellbeing for ecosystem assessment and management

There is growing interest in assessing the effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions on human wellbeing. A challenge is to translate social science expertise regarding these relationships into terms usable by environmental scientists, policymakers, and managers. Here, we present a comprehensive, structured, and transparent conceptual framework of human wellbeing designed to guide the development of indicators and a complementary social science research agenda for ecosystem-based management. Our framework grew out of an effort to develop social indicators for an integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA) of the California Current large marine ecosystem. Drawing from scholarship in international development, anthropology, geography, and political science, we define human wellbeing as a state of being with others and the environment, which arises when human needs are met, when individuals and communities can act meaningfully to pursue their goals, and when individuals and communities enjoy a satisfactory quality of life. We propose four major social science-based constituents of wellbeing: connections, capabilities, conditions, and cross-cutting domains. The latter includes the domains of equity and justice, security, resilience, and sustainability, which may be assessed through cross-cutting analyses of other constituents. We outline a process for identifying policy-relevant attributes of wellbeing that can guide ecosystem assessments. To operationalize the framework, we provide a detailed table of attributes and a large database of available indicators, which may be used to develop measures suited to a variety of management needs and social goals. Finally, we discuss four guidelines for operationalizing human wellbeing measures in ecosystem assessments, including considerations for context, feasibility, indicators and research, and social difference. Developed for the U.S. west coast, the framework may be adapted for other regions, management needs, and scales with appropriate modifications.     

游憩导向下国土空间生态修复的理论与模式

游憩导向下国土空间生态修复是将受损生态空间保护与休闲空间融合的重要手段,是构建山水林田湖草命运共同体与提高人类福祉的重要内容。基于国内外研究现状,界定了游憩导向下国土空间生态修复的概念,提出其应遵循生态系统服务理论、人地关系地域系统理论、区位理论、景观基因理论、大地艺术理论五大理论逻辑。基于实践案例归纳了游憩导向下生态修复模式类型、特征与问题,并提出实践模式的五大优化路径,包括明确功能适宜、效益最优的修复导向,建立多级空间尺度联动的传导机制,提升游憩导向下生态修复地的地方嵌入性,加强修复效果的动态监测评估,构建可持续的建设与运营管理模式,以期为游憩导向下国土空间生态修复和保护提供理论和实践参考。     

秦巴山区生态系统服务与居民福祉耦合关系的时空变化

保护生态系统、提高居民福祉是实现联合国2030可持续发展目标的核心内容。在分析秦巴山区生态系统服务与居民福祉时空演化特征的基础上,采用弹性系数揭示了二者的时空耦合关系。研究发现：（1）1990—2018年秦巴山区水源涵养总量、土壤保持总量均呈波动下降趋势,碳储量总量则呈缓慢增长趋势,且各生态系统服务呈不同的空间分异特征。（2）1990—2018年居民福祉呈上升趋势,增幅高达220%,并呈“南高北低”的分布格局。（3）县域尺度上,三种生态系统服务与居民福祉明显不协调发展。其中,水源涵养、固碳服务与居民福祉的耦合关系均以“福祉增—服务减”为主,占比分别为88.75%、62.5%;而土壤保持服务与居民福祉的耦合关系则以“双增”为主,占比为57.5%。此外,各项生态系统服务与居民福祉反向变化区多分布于汉江河谷盆地和秦岭山脉中段。研究结果可为促进贫困山区生态系统服务与居民福祉协调发展提供决策依据。     

可持续发展综合国力的理论分析

分析了综合国力的内涵,对比分析了综合国力与相关概念的关系,回顾了关于综合国力的研究历程.基于可持续发展的原则和生态系统服务能力的理念,提出了可持续发展综合国力的概念,并研究了可持续发展综合国力的重要意义.     

基于GIS的流域水质目标管理TMYL构架研究——以赣江流域为例

以赣江流域为例,提出了基于GIS的TMYL计划技术框架,构建了以保持水生态系统健康为目标的流域水质目标管理技术体系.在ARCGIS9.3的环境中,利用GIS的叠置技术,建立基于控制单元为管理核心、污染源在线监控为配套建设的三级监控体系.结合流域水污染防治绩效评估体系的建立及评估分析,为流域水污染控制的总量控制方案和对策...     

土地利用/覆盖变化对生态系统服务的影响：空间尺度视角的研究综述

作为连接自然过程与社会过程的桥梁与纽带,生态系统服务与人类福祉和可持续发展息息相关。土地利用/覆盖变化（Land Use/Land Cover Change,LUCC）是生态系统服务变化的重要原因之一,对生态系统服务的影响随着空间尺度的变化而变化。尺度问题一直是LUCC和生态系统服务理论研究与实践管理的重点与难点。系统理解LUCC对生态系统服务影响的尺度特征、尺度差异及尺度关联,对深入LUCC和生态系统服务的尺度效应研究、协调多层次管理机构的制度决策、缓解生态系统服务稀缺对社会经济发展的限制等具有重要意义。本文从空间尺度切入,基于国内外不同尺度LUCC对生态系统服务影响的理论研究和实践进展,总结归纳尺度的概念与内涵,整理介绍考虑空间尺度的研究框架,系统梳理LUCC对生态系统服务影响研究中的空间尺度选择、空间尺度特征及空间尺度关联,评析单一尺度和多尺度研究方法的特点。并提出未来研究中应在构建人文因素与自然因素相结合的研究框架、阐释LUCC对生态系统服务影响的尺度效应、完善LUCC对生态系统服务影响的尺度分析方法等方面开展更深入的研究。     

南方丘陵山地农户对生态系统服务的感知及其影响因素——以湖南省慈利县为例

生态系统服务是保障乡村生态安全、环境健康以及经济可持续发展的重要基础,农户作为乡村地域生态系统与乡村经济发展的重要关联主体,其生产生活以及对生态系统服务的认知与感知变化对维护生态系统功能具有重要影响。以南方丘陵山地重点生态功能区——湖南省慈利县6个不同发展类型的农村社区为研究对象,基于农户访谈与入户调查,探究了2008—2018年农户对各类生态系统服务的多样性感知变化,采用多元线性回归方法构建农户对生态系统服务多样化感知指数模型,分析其影响因素,在此基础上提出两者协同发展的建议策略。结果表明：（1）农户对各类生态系统服务感知变化以及不同区域之间的感知均呈现差异性,农业生产主导区感知强于生态保护核心区和生态经济发展区;（2）农户对林地、农田、园地、湿地生态系统服务的多样性感知以及属性感知依次减弱;（3）自然环境、资源禀赋、个体特征等是影响农户生态系统服务属性感知的重要因素。研究结果以期为维护区域生态系统服务,提升农户福祉推进生态服务提升及乡村协同发展提供参考。     

Assessment of eco-labelling criteria development from a strategic sustainability perspective

To turn current patterns of consumption and production in a sustainable direction, solid and understandable market information on the socio-ecological performance of products is needed. Eco-labelling programmes have an important role in this communication. The aim of this study is to investigate what gaps there may be in the current criteria development processes in relation to a strategic sustainability perspective and develop recommendations on how such presumptive gaps could be bridged. First a previously published generic framework for strategic sustainable development is described and applied for the assessment of two eco-labelling programmes. Data for the assessment is collected from literature and in semi-structured interviews and discussions with eco-labelling experts.The assessment revealed that the programmes lack both an operational definition of sustainability, and a statement of objectives to direct and drive the criteria development processes. Consequently they also lack guidelines for how product category criteria might gradually develop in any direction. The selected criteria mainly reflect the current reality based on a selection of negative impacts in ecosystems, but how this selection, or prioritization, is made is not clearly presented. Finally, there are no guidelines to ensure that the criteria developers represent a broad enough competence to embrace all essential sustainability aspects.In conclusion the results point at deficiencies in theory, process and practice of eco-labelling, which hampers cohesiveness, transparency and comprehension. And it hampers predictability, as producers get no support in foreseeing how coming revisions of criteria will develop. This represents a lost opportunity for strategic sustainable development. It is suggested that these problems could be avoided by informing the criteria development process by a framework for strategic sustainable development, based on backcasting from basic sustainability principles.     

中国反食物浪费监测与评估体系建设

《中华人民共和国反食品浪费法》的颁布与实施,标志着中国的食物浪费从理论研究转向实践应用。为了推动食物浪费的减量,亟需构建覆盖全国的、系统性的监测和评估体系并实现食物浪费的定量监测与评估。本文面向《中华人民共和国反食品浪费法》实施过程政府及社会中各界的主要关切,通过系统梳理国内外食物浪费的相关研究,辨析了食物浪费的定义及主要演变,论述了全球食物浪费监测与评估情况。在此基础上,本文重点分析了中国食物浪费监测与评估进展,提出了通过餐厨垃圾,将食物浪费从传统概念向广义概念延伸的理念,并提出了适合中国国情的反食品浪费监测与评估指标。本文旨在为中国相关政府部门开展食物浪费的监测和评估提供科学参考,从而为全球可持续发展目标12.3的实现提供借鉴。     

应用生物完整性指数评价我国河流的生态健康

河流生态健康评价是开展流域水生态健康评估和管理的重要技术基础,生物完整性是评估流域生态完整性的重要构成指标.基于生物群落特征参数的多参数指数（MMI）和预测模型的样点物种组成观测值与期望值比值的O/E指数（O,观测值;E,期望值）,是应用最广泛的评价生物完整性的两个重要指数;美国和欧盟等都已建立完善的基于生物完整性指数评价水生态健康的国家和地方规范.本文综述了MMI和O/E指数的基本概念和构建方法,比较了两者的共同点和优缺点;回顾了两者的发展简史和国内外的应用现状,分析了目前我国对MMI和O/E指数研究与应用的现状和不足,并提出了国内未来研究和应用MMI与O/E指数的建议.     

Technology strategies for sustainable metals production systems: a case study of primary aluminium production in The Netherlands and Norway

Many firms are embracing the environmental challenge by implementing incremental changes in their production systems. Nevertheless, radical innovations are also important for achieving sustainability goals. This paper focuses on the technology strategies leading to radical innovations in aluminium production systems. It conceptualizes the radical nature of innovations, and develops a framework for analysing the technology strategies of two aluminium smelters, Aluminium Delfzijl in The Netherlands and Hydro Aluminium in Norway. From the analysis, policy instruments are proposed for a transition towards sustainable aluminium production.