China’s Total Emission Control Policy: A Critical Review

Abstract

As part of a comprehensive environmental management system, many countries establish emission control targets for mass emissions of a pollutant. Such targets are often the key objective of an environmental policy, such as an emission trading program. In China, however, it is more than just an objective of one particular policy; it has become a concept that has influenced many national environmental policies and activities. The objective of this article is to review the implementation of the total emission control policy in the past 10 years and explore emerging issues in its implementation. The article has three sections: a summary of the implementation experience, issues with the design and implementation of the policy, and policy recommendations.     

A test of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for carbon emission and potential of renewable energy to reduce green house gases (GHG) in Malaysia

This study investigates the presence of environmental kuznets curve (EKC) for green house gases (GHG) measured by CO₂ emission in Malaysia for the period 1970 to 2011. The study also examines the potential of the renewable source of energy to contain GHG. The long-run significant positive coefficient of GDP indicates that the GHG are increasing with economic growth while the insignificant coefficient on GDP square rejects the EKC transition. These results indicate a high GDP level for the EKC turning point for Malaysia. Therefore, it can be stated that only economic growth cannot reverse the environmental degradation in Malaysia. The government should have to come up with some policy measures to achieve CO₂ emission reduction targets that Malaysia has pledged to achieve in Paris Submit (2015). The renewable energy production is found to have significant negative effect on CO₂ emission. So government should focus on the renewable source of energy production and should frame a special policy for renewable energy production.     

排污权的设定对环境技术进步的影响

排污权的设定是我国在治理环境污染过程中一项重要的政策。客观地评价这项政策的实施效果,不仅有利于政策本身的实施和完善,同时也可为其他地区开展相关工作提供借鉴。采用2004~2014年中国30个地区的面板数据,借鉴国内外评价政策实施效果的主流计量方法——双重差分法(Difference-in-Difference,DID),建立环境技术进步测度模型,探究排污权设定对环境技术进步的影响,最后提出政策建议。研究发现:当期排污权的设定并未对中国省际环境技术进步产生显著影响,但是在设定2 a之后,排污权在一定程度上控制了污染物的排放,其对我国环境污染的治理具有一定的促进作用,由此可以说明排污权确实能够提高环境技术进步。从长远来看,排污权的设定有利于我国经济健康可持续的发展。     

期权理论在排污权初始分配中的应用

排污权交易是当前总量控制目标下最具潜力的环境政策,它兼有环境质量保障和成本效率优化的特点.在对国内外排污权交易和初始分配充分考察的基础上,提出了在排污权初次分配中引入期权机制的尝试,并对这种方法的理论基础作了分析和讨论.     

区域大气污染协同减排补偿机制研究

在环境规制逐步从污染排放控制向环境质量管理转型的背景下,现行的单一行政区属地治理和管理模式对区域性流动性的大气污染已力不从心,导致减排目标与环境质量改善不对应,因此,跨行政区域的合作治理亟需管理手段和机制的创新。本文基于大气环境质量目标视角,构建了区域上层管理部门(如国家或区域)和下层所辖各区的双层博弈模型,明确了大气污染减排成本与减排量的函数关系,利用定量分析方法模拟计算出区域减排总成本最小化状况下的污染协同减排补偿标准及各辖区所承担的污染物减排量,提出对实际减排量低于(超过)责任减排量的辖区给予补偿费的征收(奖励)的管理机制,通过市场调节手段实现区域内大气污染协同减排的目的。在此基础上,以我国大气污染重点防控区(长株潭城市群)为例,采用2004—2015年的统计面版数据,对区域内所辖各区二氧化硫减排量和协同减排补偿标准进行了定量测算。计算结果表明:为达到国家设定的2030年环境空气质量总体目标,长株潭区域二氧化硫协同减排的补偿费标准为1 506元/t,以该补偿标准作为区域层面二氧化硫协同减排调控手段,可在区域污染治理总成本最小化的同时,实现域内各辖区自身利益的最大化。文章最后就区域污染协同减排补偿机制提出了实施思路及保障措施。基于此研究,区域环境管理部门应设立专项的协同减排基金,专门用于区域大气质量的改善和提高:一方面用于激励大气污染实际减排量超出本行政区域责任减排量的辖区,目的是为区域空气质量比预期目标更高、对居民健康产生的正向外部性买单;另一方面用于对历史包袱重、减排压力大、治理能力弱的辖区给予一定的政策倾斜或扶持;同时,区域环境管理部门还应从组织机构、交易平台、法律法规等方面提供保障措施,确保协同减排补偿机制的顺利实施。     

CGE model-based analysis of the neutralized hybrid carbon policy and its decomposed effects on economic growth,carbon reduction,and energy utilization costs

The hybrid policy is a flexible policy tool that combines features of carbon trading and carbon taxation.Its economic and environmental effects under China's background are still not studied in detail.Given the exogenous carbon reduction targets,carbon prices,and carbon tax-rates,by computable general equilibrium modeling methods and factor decomposition methods,this article investigates direct and cascaded effects of the hybrid policy on economic growth,energy utilization,and carbon emission on the national level and the sector level,with China's national input-output data-set.Stepwisely,policy scenarios with irrational estimated results are selectively excluded based on comprehensive evaluation among economic,carbon reduction and other policy targets.As a result,against national economic conditions in 2007,the hybrid policy,with a carbon reduction target of -10%,a carbon tax-rate of around $10,and a ceiling carbon price of $40,is highly recommended,because of its significant lower economic loss,lower energy utilization cost,and practical robustness against fluctuation of energy market and carbon market.Furthermore,by decomposition analysis,carbon reduction-related costs are decomposed into a direct part that includes carbon allowance price and carbon tax,and an indirect part as the energy price incremental induced by direct carbon costs.Gross carbon reduction may be decomposed into three parts such as energy intensity,economic scale,and technical progress.And,carbon taxation is the main policy tool that stimulates to improve the energy efficiency.     

环境技术变革的经济机制分析和政策研究

本文从企业和环境管理决策者两个角度,对排放标准、环境税、排污权交易及其政策组合等政策的机制和效果进行了比较研究,提出我国目前在清洁生产要求下促进环境技术变革采用有效政策工具的理论依据和研究思路     

钢铁行业碳减排情景仿真分析及评价研究

我国钢铁行业碳排放量约为全国碳排放总量的15%。因此完成钢铁行业碳减排目标是实现我国碳减排总量目标的重要环节。研究为求解未来钢铁行业的碳排放总量与碳减排潜力,提出一种基于技术进步与碳减排外部性的情景仿真模型。在不同的技术进步与碳减排外部性情境下,模型综合考虑节能减排技术对行业/地区碳排放的影响,设计锁定、成长和促进三种碳减排情景。最后采用该模型对重庆市钢铁行业的碳排放总量,碳减排潜力与节能技改投资成本变化进行了情景仿真分析与评价。研究表明,为更好地实现行业的碳减排目标,在现有的节能减排政策环境下,重庆市钢铁行业,需要进一步加强对节能减排技术的推广;加大技术推广投资,用于更多的节能减排技术的研发与推广,加快节能减排技术扩散速度,增强行业碳减排成效;有选择性的进行投入与推广,提高资金的利用效率,以有限的资金实现行业/地区碳减排成效的最大化。     

基于多行业DSGE模型的中国碳减排政策效应

碳达峰和碳中和目标的提出,标志着中国低碳减排进入新的阶段,从国家层面的宏观政策包括各个行业的行业政策都在推行各种低碳减排政策,从行业异质性视角动态分析碳减排政策的效应具有重要的学术和实践意义。为此,构建一个包含环境外部性和碳减排政策的多行业动态随机一般均衡模型,研究许可证交易和碳税两种政策情景下,行业技术冲击、税收政策和减排政策调整冲击对宏观经济、环境和行业排放的动态效应。模拟发现:许可证交易政策情景下,行业技术冲击具有明显的结构性效应,覆盖行业企业减排率上升,排放下降,而未覆盖行业排放随产出上升而上升,而在碳税政策情景下,这种差异并不明显。政府采用盯住总排放波动的碳减排政策能够有效地减少冲击带来的福利损失,提高对维持排放水平的关注程度能够减少相应的福利损失。建议政府有效地权衡经济增长和改善环境二者之间的关系,在不造成大的负面经济影响的前提下,加大减排政策力度,推广和扩大碳交易试点范围,尽快在全国建立统一的碳市场。制定碳减排政策时,考虑碳减排政策收入的返还机制,配以减税的财政政策以刺激经济,缓和减排政策的负面影响。政府应根据排放水平顺周期地动态调整碳减排政策的强度,适当提高对维持排放水平的关注程度。     

Climate variations and New Zealand agriculture: the CLIMPACTS system and issues of spatial and temporal scale.

Internationally and nationally, New Zealand has a growing requirement to assess and report on the possible effects of climate change. In association with this requirement, the science of climate change is rapidly evolving requiring a capacity for rapid reassessment of effects to take account of scientific advances. Consequently, past assessment methods, which have not been computationally efficient, nor easily repeated, are becoming outdated. To address this gap, an integrated assessment model (IAM), the CLIMPACTS system, has been developed for New Zealand. The CLIMPACTS system has been developed to provide flexibility in application, to be easily updated to take account of scientific advances, and capable of providing information in a manner that is relevant to policymakers. In order to be relevant in New Zealand, it has been necessary to account for different scales of assessment, nationally, at specific sites, and regionally. Nationally, the focus is on spatial applications (e.g., changes in areas of suitability), whereas at sites, the focus is on temporal applications (e.g., changes in risk). The regional capacity in the CLIMPACTS system has required an integration of spatial and temporal applications. This paper describes briefly the capability that has been developed at these different scales of assessment, with brief examples for each. The CLIMPACTS system has enhanced New Zealand's capability to examine environmental sensitivities to climate change, as a basis for better informed policy decisions. Importantly, it is an evolving platform that can be readily extended to other sectors and updated, for example, to account for the effects of internationally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets.     

环境管制政策的局限性与变革--自愿性环境政策的兴起

我国虽然基本上避免了环境质量急剧恶化的局面。但是现行环境政策并没有从根本上遏制环境状况不断恶化的趋势，我国环境政策的效率亟待摄高。究其原因，我国环境政策以行政直控的管制政策为主。具有强烈的行政管理色彩，使得政府和企业的博弈长期锁定在非合作状态。要摆脱这种困境，必须引入第三方激励、监督机制。促使双方的博弈转变为合作博弈。20世纪90年代中期自愿性环境政策的渐渐兴起，是企业和公众在产品市场上互相影响的结果。而政府起到引导激励、信号传递作用。文章从博弈论的角度对此进行了分析，自愿性环境政策缓解了环境管制成本与效果冲突的困境，是未来环境政策的一个重要的方向。     

Swedish nutrient reduction policies: an evaluation of cost-effectiveness

Since more than 30 years, the Swedish government as well as other governments in the drainage basin strives toward a reduction in nutrient loads to Baltic Sea coastal waters in order to combat eutrophication of the sea. In spite of this, the cost-effectiveness of actual environmental policy for meeting Baltic Sea nutrient targets has not been evaluated by national or international bodies in the region. The aim of this paper is to evaluate Swedish national nitrogen and phosphorus policies with regard to cost-effectiveness. This is done through a comparison of nutrient measures implemented through environmental policy decisions 1995–2005 with cost-effective policies for present national as well as Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) targets. The cost-effective measures are calculated using an empirical programming model including all countries adjacent to the Baltic Sea. Calculations show that measures that jointly reduce nitrogen and phosphorus are hardly applied in actual policy and that reductions in the agricultural sector are much smaller than is cost-effective. Data show, surprisingly, that considerable reductions have been carried out in the Bothnian Sea catchment in spite of there being no nutrient reduction target for this catchment. Results suggest also that the Swedish costs for meeting the new and geographically more restricted targets under the BSAP can be reduced if a policy with less restrictions on the location of phosphorus abatement is applied, compared to what is now suggested.     

环境税对高污染行业的影响研究——以湖南邵阳高COD排放行业为例

针对开征环境税对高污染行业的影响，选取湖南省邵阳市为研究区域，以COD排放为例，选择了COD排放量最多的造纸及纸制品业、农副食品加工业、化学原料和化学制品制造业，调查各行业的废水治理成本。通过调查发现行业平均治理成本差别较大，从1.55元/kg到8.11元/kg，调查时点区域排污费收费标准0.7元/kg，相比行业平均治理成本太低，就几乎不具有激励减排的功能，同时也不具备筹集环境治理资金的功能。通过分析湖南邵阳高COD排放行业征收环境税的影响发现，无论基于行业废水平均治理成本制定环境保护税税率，还是考虑边际治理成本提高的情况下制定环境保护税税率，对行业大部分企业利税影响率均小于5%。而且基于行业治理成本征税，有利于淘汰行业中高污染的落后产能，促进行业整体资源优化配置，从长远来看有利于整个行业的发展，对于推动供给侧改革，改善环境质量具有重要意义。 关键词： 环境税；影响分析；高污染行业；供给侧改革     

Research on the effects of command-and-control and market-oriented policy tools on China’s energy conservation and emissions reduction innovation

The impact of environmental regulation on technology innovation is a hot spot in current research where a large number of empirical studies are based on Porter Hypothesis (PH). However, there are still controversies in academia about the establishment of “weak” and “narrow” versions of PH. Based on the panel data of application for patent of energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) technology of Chinese city scale during 2008–2014, comprehensive energy price, pollutant emission, etc., mixed regression model and systematic generalized method of moments method were adopted, respectively, to study the impact of market-oriented and command-and-control policy tool on China’s ECER technology innovation. The results show that the environmental regulation hindered the technological innovation in the immediate phase; however, it turned out to be positive in the first-lag phase. Hence, the establishment of “weak” PH is time-bounded. The command-and-control policy tool played a more positive role in promoting technological innovation in the first-lag phase than market-oriented policy tool. Therefore, “narrow” PH is not tenable. The reason is that the main participants of China’s ECER technology innovation are state-owned companies and public institutions. Regionally speaking, the impact which command-and-control policy tool has on technological innovation at sight was non-significant in the eastern, the central, and the western regions of China whilst market-oriented policy tool had a negative effect. And market-oriented policy tool in the central region had strongest negative effect, which would diminish in the eastern region and become weakest in the western region. This was related to regional energy consumption level and the market economic vitality.     

碳市场政策下企业对碳信用的支付意愿及影响因素研究

中国已经在7个省市进行了碳排放权交易市场的试点,并拟于2017年建立全国碳排放权交易市场。随着碳市场政策的逐步完善,碳排放将成为企业的总量控制目标之一。在全国碳市场即将建立的背景下,研究企业对于全国碳市场政策的预期,分析企业的响应规律,估算企业对于碳信用的支付意愿,对于保障全国碳市场的顺利建立和有效运行具有重要的意义。基于此,本研究利用多边界离散选择的方式,调查了全国范围内29个省市的555家企业,对于由于全国碳市场建立而导致的能源价格提高的接受程度,并利用多元线性回归模型分析影响企业接受程度的因素,最后估算企业对于碳市场中碳信用的支付意愿。结果显示:(1)企业可接受的能源价格提高比例的平均值为8.3%,其中碳试点企业可接受的提高比例最高,达到10.2%,非碳试点企业可接受的提高比例最低,为7.5%;(2)对企业接受程度的影响因素分析显示,企业的能源价格压力,以及企业对于全国碳市场到来的时间预期与接受程度显著负相关;企业对于碳减排技术的了解程度,以及企业对于全国碳市场控制程度的预期与接受程度显著正相关;(3)对于全国碳市场中的碳信用,企业平均愿意支付的价格为79.6元/t CO_2,其中碳试点企业的支付意愿最高,为95.9元/t CO_2,非碳试点企业的支付意愿最低,为72.6元/t CO_2。据此,为保障全国碳排放权交易市场的顺利建立,实现对企业碳排放的有效控制,政府应该注重降低企业的用能成本,引导与支持企业进行技术创新与升级,提高企业对于碳市场政策的认识和了解,并充分考虑不同地区的差异和不同企业的支付能力差别,合理设定碳价。     

不同碳减排政策对内外资企业竞争力的影响比较

一方面,由于我国内外资企业的生产效率和碳排放效率差距较大,不同的碳减排政策势必会对内外资企业的市场竞争力带来不同的影响;另一方面,已有文献大多在完全竞争的框架下对不同减排政策的实施效应进行分析,而事实上我国碳减排政策所覆盖的产业大多是不完全竞争甚至是寡头垄断。由此,我们基于内外资企业存在低碳技术差距这一新的研究视角,通过构建两阶段博弈模型来比较分析相同碳强度减排目标下强制减排、碳税与碳交易等三种减排政策对内外资企业产量、市场份额及其社会总产量的影响,从而有利于我国从妥善处理内外资关系的角度制定更有针对性的减排政策。结果表明:(1)三种减排政策都降低了内资企业的产量和市场份额,且内外资企业低碳技术差距越大时内资企业的市场份额下降越多。(2)强制减排降低了社会总产量,碳税和碳交易同等幅度地减少了社会总产量。(3)最优税率仅仅是减排目标的增函数。(4)市场出清的碳交易价格和碳税税率相等,且其数值仅与减排目标正相关,而与碳排放权的分配无关。(5)碳交易比碳税更有利于"保护"内资企业的市场竞争力。相关政策启示如下:(1)尽快确定普适的碳排放核算标准,核算出各行业内外资企业的低碳技术差距;(2)尽快在全国范围内启动碳交易机制,建立促进缩小内外资企业低碳技术的机制;(3)在碳交易市场条件不成熟的行业可以率先推出碳税政策;(4)政府应该根据内外资企业低碳技术差距来对不同行业采取最适宜的减排政策,而非"一刀切"。     

碳交易背景下中国石化行业2020年碳减排目标情景分析

石化行业作为中国八大典型高碳排放产业之一,也是碳市场参与的重要行业.在国家2020年碳排放强度目标的约束下,客观评价其行业减碳的压力,对于政府部门科学制定各个行业碳排放配额的分配方案具有重要支撑作用.同时,亦对于通过低碳转型升级实现行业的可持续发展和支撑国家的工业减排目标具有理论和现实意义.本文针对石化行业9个子部门,结合我国经济发展的总体背景和趋势以及石化行业的相关数据,以2010年为基准情景,在2020年国家碳排放强度分别下降45％和50％的减排约束目标下,构建了一个动态CGE模型——PCCGE,借助GAMS软件模拟分析,预测了到2020年国家和石化行业经济总量、能源消费结构和碳排放量及碳强度等的变化趋势.研究结果表明,相比基准情景,在45％、50％的碳强度减排目标下,国家和石化行业的经济增长、能源消费结构和碳排放强度等指标分别受到一定程度影响,其中,50％的减排目标对国家整体经济增速影响更为明显;对煤炭、石油这两种高碳能源的需求产生了较显著的约束效应;相比国家45％-50％的低碳发展目标,石化行业减碳承受压力达到60.63％至64.78％,面临着艰巨的减排任务与挑战.最后,文章结合低碳市场化背景提出了如下建议:科学预测典型离碳行业的减碳潜力,谨慎应对石化等行业企业参与碳市场交易过程中碳配额指标的制定与分配;充分利用技术创新和能源结构调整等战略,提高可再生能源的使用规模,促进能源消耗结构的优化和调整;构建石化行业节能低碳技术产学研协同创新体系,解决共性节能技术瓶颈;实施石化行业企业低碳发展战略,建设完善碳排放管理体系是行业节能减碳的重要手段.     

Estimation of emission reduction potential in China’s industrial sector

The industrial sector is usually the largest economy sector for carbon emissions in many countries, which made it the sector with greatest potential for carbon reduction although the process duration might be very long. Studying the potential of industrial emission reduction has great significance in estimating the carbon emission peak of China on the one hand, and adjusting its strategy in international climate change negotiations. By employing the economic accounting method, this article estimates the emission reduction potential of China’s Industrial sector for the period of 2010–2050. It reveals that, taking 2030 as the year when the emission reaches the peak, the total reduction can be 8.38 billion tons (bts) for the period of 2010–2030, with 3.12 bts from structural reduction while 5.26 bts from intensity reduction. Afterwards, reduction will continue with a total amount of 6.59 bts for the period of 2030–2050, where the structural reduction accounts for 2.47 bts, and intensity reduction 4.115 bts. If both industrial and energy consumption structures are improved during the above period, the reduction potential can be even greater, e.g. the emission peak can arrive five years earlier (in the year of 2025) and the peak value can decline by about 8% as compared to the original estimation. Reviewing the trajectory of emission changes in developed countries indicates that the industry sector can contribute to the overall reduction targets through the dual wheels of structural reduction and intensity reduction, even beyond the emission peak. This article concludes with the following policy suggestions. (1) Our estimation on the emission peak of the industrial sector suggests that China should avoid any commitment earlier than 2030 on the timeline of the overall emission peak; (2) the great potential of industrial emission reduction can improve the situation of China in climate change negotiation, where the intensity reduction can serve as an important policy option. (3) Reduction potential can be further enhanced through technology advancement, which requires furthering of market oriented reforms and improvement of institutional design. (4) To secure the reduction effects of the industrial structure adjustment, the balanced development among different regions should be encouraged in order to avoid the reverse adjustment caused by industrial transferring. (5) International cooperation promoting the application and development of industrial emission reduction technologies, including carbon capture, utilization and storage, should be encouraged.     

Double dividend of carbon intensity: environmental-quality improvement and sustainable economic growth

This paper established an equilibrium model including representative household, government, and eight industries, and two different environmental policy tools such as carbon intensity and carbon cap were added into the model. The paper points out that the carbon intensity policy imposed on major high-emission industries achieved double dividend of environmental-quality improvement and sustainable economic growth under the condition of proper constraint target. This result supports the environmental Porter hypothesis. This paper finds out that the double dividend is due to the fact that environmental governance policy leads to the rising price of resources and demand of labors, resulting in an effective redistribution of production factors among industries and sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, this paper estimates the marginal effect of economic structure on carbon emission and carbon intensity and provides targeted suggestions.     

混合碳减排制度设计研究

碳减排是减缓气候变暖的必由之路,国际社会正在积极推动全球碳减排。我国已向国际社会承诺了碳减排目标,并正在大力开展相关政策的研究和制定。碳税和碳交易是多年来各国激励碳减排最主要的两大机制。这两种机制各有优缺点,它们适当的混合机制可扬长避短,创造出更优越的机制。我们认为,碳税和碳交易机制之间最大的差别在于碳税机制有较低的制度成本(包括建立者一机制所需要的人力物力的投入,以及监管成本等),在操作性上更简便;而在对市场条件和信息的变化上没有碳交易机制的灵活性强,但从另一方面,这种灵活性也恰恰是风险产生的根源之一,它增加了企业在碳排放决策方面的风险和难度;此外,碳税相对于碳交易是间接的碳减排激励机制,碳交易机制的减排效果更直接。基于这些观察,我们设计出一种混合碳减排机制,它是碳税和碳交易机制的有机结合。该混合机制包含两个部分:首先是累进制碳税制度,小企业只缴纳碳税;其次,碳交易制度,建立碳交易市场并对于大企业确定初始碳排放权,对于大企业的超排,将按照高起点的碳税税率加以惩罚。这一混合机制,既考虑了不同企业之间在碳排放权上的公平性,又考虑了机制的效率,并在保障机制效率的条件下尽可能降低企业在碳排放决策上的风险。这些正是这一混合机制的优越性所在。我们还探讨了这一混合机制在我国实施的可行性,并提出了在具体实施过程中所应注意的若干重要事项,并给出了相关的政策建议。本文的探讨可以为政府碳排放政策制定部门提供参考。