Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Energy Use in Beijing （1981-2005） Using the LMDI Method

This paper aims to identify the main driving force for changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing during the period of 1981-2005. Sectoral energy use was investigated when regional economic structure changed significantly. The changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing are decomposed into production effects, structural effects and intensity effects using the additive version of the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method. Aggregate decomposition analysis showed that the major contributor of total effect was made by the production effect followed by the intensity effect, and the structural effect was relatively insignificant. The total and production effects were all positive. In contrast, the structural effect and intensity effect were all negative. Sectoral decomposition investigation indicated that the most effective way to slow down the growth rate of total primary energy consumption （TPEC） was to reduce the production of the energy-intensive industrial sectors and improving industrial energy intensity. The results show that in this period, Beijing＇s economy has undergone a transformation from an industrial to a service economy. However, the structures of sectoral energy use have not been changed yet, and energy demand should be increasing until the energy-intensive industrial production to be reduced and energy intensity of the region reaches a peak. As sequence energy consumption data of sub-sectors are not available, only the fundamental three sectors are considered： agriculture, industry and service. However, further decomposition into secondary and tertiary sectors is definitely needed for detailed investigations.     

Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption

In order to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and to explore the pathways to developing a low-carbon economy,this paper begins with the terminal energy consumption of three industries and residential consumption,and constructs an identical equation which is composed of population size,level of economic development,energy intensity,the proportion of energy consumption,energy structure,and the coefficient of carbon emissions.Based on the data of terminal energy consumption during 2000-2012,various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI).The results show that the levels of population and economy have a positive driving effect while energy intensity,energy structure,and carbon intensity have a negative driving effect;the proportion of energy consumption had a negative driving effect prior to 2006,then changed to positive.Among suggestions for a low-carbon economy are controlling population size,improving the quality of economic development,supporting research into new energy technology,accelerating regional integration and optimizing industrial structure,and enhancing environmental protection and spreading the concept of a low-carbon economy.     

Eco-environmental Impact Assessment of the Change of Regional Industrial Structure and Regulative Measures

Acting as an important driving force for the change of the regional land use, the change of industrial structure also has some influences on the ecological environment. The assessment and mechanism analysis of these influences will be beneficial to the sustainable development of regional economy and the improvement of relationships between man and earth. Taking Chuzhou City in Anhui Province as an example, on the basis of a qualitative analysis of the influence of the development of different industry on the regional ecological environment, this paper builds the influence factor of industrial structure on natural environment and the influence index of industrial structure on natural environment, makes a quantitative assessment of the change of the industrial structure and its comprehensive influences on the ecological environment in the Chuzhou City from 1974 to 1995. Studies show that, during the analysed period, Chuzhou City＇s industrial structure has changed markedly, having undergone two transformations. The influence of industrial structure on natural environment from 1974 to 1995 increased as a whole, while from 1996 to 2004, the influence of industrial structure on natural environment decreased year-on-year. These changes indicate that the regional change of industrial structure results in better ecological effects. Finally, we propose appropriate regulatory measures according to our research results.     

Dynamic Changes, Regional Differences, and Influencing Factors of CO2 Emission Performance in China

This paper proposes to use DEA models with undesirable outputs to construct the Malmquist index that can be use to investigate the dynamic changes of CO 2 emission performance.With the index,the authors have measured the CO 2 emission performance of 28 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1996 to 2007;with the convergence theory and panel data regression model,the authors analyze the regional differences and the influencing factors.It is found that the performance of CO 2 emissions in China has been continuously improved mainly due to the technological progress,and the average improvement rate is 3.25%,with a cumulative improvement rate of 40.86%.In addition,the CO 2 emission performance varies across four regions.As a whole,the performance score of eastern China is the highest.The northeastern and central China has relatively lower performance scores,and the western China is relatively backward.The regional differences are decreasing,and the performance of CO 2 emissions is convergent.The influence of some factors on the performance of CO 2 emissions is significant,such as the level of economic development,the level of industrial structure,energy intensity,and ownership structure.The influence of some factors,such as opening-up to the outside world,on the performance of CO 2 emissions is not significant..     

The Factor Decomposition on Carbon Emission of China——Based on LMDI Decomposition Technology

Carbon emission is the current hot issue of global concern. How to assess various contributing factors for carbon emission is of great importance to find out the key factors and promote carbon emission reduction. In this paper, the author constructs an identical equation for carbon emission, based on the economic aggregate, the economic structure, the efficiency of energy utilization, the structure of energy consumption, and the coefficient of carbon emission; by applying to LMDI decomposition technology, the author analyzes the carbon emission of China from 1995 to 2007 at industrial level and regional level. The results show that the expansion of economic aggregate is the main reason for China’ s rapidly increasing carbon emission and the increase of energy utilization efficiency is the key factor that can hold back the increase of carbon emission. In addition, the change of industrial structure or regional structure and the change of traditional energy structure have limited influence on the carbon emission, and their potentials have not yet been exploited. At the end of this paper, the author proposes the efforts that China should make to reduce carbon emission.     

Temporal-spatial change and driving mechanism for regional difference of domestic tourism in China

By using the variation coefficient,Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient,this paper makes preliminary exploration of temporalspatial change features and driving mechanism for regional differences of domestic tourism in China from 1995 to 2009.According to the results,we drew the following conclusions:(1)The regional difference of domestic tourism in China tends to be narrowing generally,and is less than that of inbound tourism,playing an important role in narrowing the overall gap of regional tourism in China.(2)The regional internal difference features:inter-provincial difference in the eastern region and difference among the eastern,central and western regions are comparatively obvious and demonstrate a significantly shrinking tendency,the change tendency is consistent with the change tendency of overall difference and exercises a decisive role in overall difference,whereas the inter-provincial difference in the central and western regions is small and relatively stable,having less influence on the overall difference.(3)The temporal-spatial change in regional difference is featured by:low-level provinces occupy a majority and are concentrated in the central and western regions,showing a tendency of narrowing difference;high-level provinces are concentrated in the eastern region,showing a tendency of spreading to the central and western regions;spatial pattern of regional difference demonstrates 4 types,i.e."proliferation type","polarization type","quiescence type"and"collapse type."(4)The driving force for regional difference of domestic tourism in China comes down to 3 aspects:regional socio-economic attribute,regional transport accessibility level and regional development policy.     

Changing energy intensity in China:a decomposition analysis

This study proposed a decomposition method based on the normalized quadratic shadow unit cost function to explore the determinants of the change in energy intensity in China from 1985 to 2010.The decomposition analysis indicates that (1) the improvement in technical efficiency dramatically reduced the energy intensity,whereas technological change played only a minor role,which could be attributed to a rebound effect;(2) the aggregated allocation effect was small because the change in the allocative distortion between capital and energy significantly enhanced energy intensity but was partly offset by the effect stemming from the change in the allocative distortion between capital and energy;and (3) the substitution of energy for labor increased energy intensity,but the aggregated substitution effect significantly reduced energy intensity because the substitution of capital for energy reduced energy intensity to a great extent.These findings were obtained at the national level and varied at die regional level.     

Decomposition of Energy-related CO2 Emissions from Shanghai＇s Industries and Policy Implications

This paper quantifies a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in the industrial sectors of Shanghai over the period 1994-2007.The Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method is applied to this study in terms of six factors:labor force,labor mobility,gross labor productivity,energy intensity,fuel mix,and emission coefficient.In addition,the decoupling effect between industrial economic growth and CO2 emissions is analyzed to evaluate CO2 mitigation strategies for Shanghai.The results show that all labor productivity has the largest positive effect on CO2 emission changes in the industrial sectors,whereas labor mobility and energy intensity are the main components for decreasing CO2 emissions.Other factors have different effects on CO2 mitigation in different sub-periods.Although a relative decoupling of industrial CO2 emissions from the economic growth in Shanghai has been found,Shanghai should keep pace with the industrial CO2 emissions reduction by implementing low-carbon technology.These results have important policy implications:Plan C is the reasonable choice for Shanghai.     

Technological Progress, Structural Change and China＇s Energy Efficiency

China has witnessed rapid economic development since 1978, and during the time, energy production and consumption developed at a tremendous speed as well. Energy efficiency which can be measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP, however, experienced continuous decrease. Theoretically, the change of energy efficiency can be attributed to industry structural change and technological change. In order to explain the transformation of Chinese energy efficiency, we adopt logarithmic mean Divisia index techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period of 1994-2005. We find that technological change is the dominant contributor in the decline of energy intensity, but the contribution has declined since 2001. The change in industry structure has decreased the energy intensity before 1998, but raised the intensity after 1998. Decomposed technological effects for all sectors indicate that technological progresses in high energy consuming industries such as raw chemical materials and chemical products, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and household contribute are the principal drivers of China＇s declining energy intensity.     

Mutual Conversion of Land Use between Urban and Rural Area in the Process of Urbanization: A Case Study of Shandong Province

Urbanization is one of the driving forces for the land use change in type and structure, and its prominent effect is to convert rural land to urban land. This paper takes Shan-dong Province as an example to analyze the current situation of the mutual conversion between the urban and rural areas from the aspects of the structure of land use, the decreasing tendency of the cultivated land, the changes of land use in urban and rural residential areas. It points out that cultivated land is converted to residential area land, industrial and/or mining area land. The relationship between the urban area land and the cultivated land is more direct; meanwhile, the changes of rural residential area lag behind obviously. The decrease of the cultivated land and the decline of soil quality will be the two difficult problems in the process of urbanization.     

The Convergence Analysis on the Economic Growth and Energy Intensity Gap between Regional Sectors

In this paper,the authors have analyzed the relationship between energy intensity gap and GDP per worker gap of China’s western and eastern provinces over the period 1997-2006.Using panel data model with lag adjustment,taking the above provinces and six industrial sectors (agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fisheries,industry,construction industry,transport,storage and post & telecommunications,wholesale and retail trades & catering industry,and other sectors of tertiary industry.) as the investigated subjects,the authors have conducted empirical study on the convergence of GDP per worker gap and the convergence of energy intensity gap with respect to the variation of GDP per worker gap,and have concluded that:First,the GDP per worker gap of the six industrial sectors and provinces are convergent,and of this,the convergence rate of GDP per worker gap of Construction Industry is the fastest,while that of Industry is the slowest.Second,the overall energy intensity gap between eastern and western provinces is convergent,that is,with the narrowing of GDP per worker gap between eastern and western provinces,the energy intensity gap converges,but its convergence rate is slower than that of GDP per worker gap.Third,energy intensity gap between various industrial sectors of the east and the west is either convergent or divergent,and there are differences.The energy intensity gap of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fisheries,industry,and construction industry is convergent,while that of the other three industrial sectors is divergent.Fourth,the convergence of the overall energy intensity of the western provinces is not in conformity with the convergence of the various industrial sectors,and there are significant differences,indicating that the western provinces and autonomous regions should take measures to more effectively improve their overall energy utilization efficiency at the industrial sector level.     

Land Degradation Evaluation in North Hebei Province Based on Remote Sensing and GIS

Land degradation is one of the serious environmental problems that can lead to poverty, and is especially prominent in eco-fragile areas in developing countries and increases the risk of environmental safety. North Hebei Province belongs to an ecologically fragile region in North China, which has great impact on the eco-safety of Beijing and Tianjin. Using Landsat TM data and GIS, this paper evaluates land degradation in North Hebei province of China from the the 1960＇s to 1987 and 2000. Land use/cover change pattern from 1987 to 2000, its regional difference and forest change characteristics will also be analyzed; soil erosion intensity and arable land suitability were also evaluated. Results revealed that land use/cover pattern in this study area did not change greatly from 1987 to 2000. The structure and function of regional land ecosystem was at a level of local improvement and integral deterioration. Land above medium soil erosion intensity reached 21 percent, which was also the area with a serious soil erosion and land degradation problem. Soil erosion and land degradation intensity of grassland was the biggest. For the present arable land, the proportion of high suitability was 13 percent.     

Study on the Regional Distribution of Energy Efficiency from the Point of Pollutant Emissions

In this paper,the author uses super-efficiency DEA model to measure the national and regional energy efficiency in China;using spatial econometric model and from the perspective of geo-spatial spillover,the author interprets the spatial characteristics of energy efficiency and extracts the main factors that influence the regional energy efficiency.The analysis results show that:(1) the national and regional energy efficiency is consistent with inverted U-shaped curve,and the nationwide energy efficiency gap is increasing;(2) energy efficiency has the obvious effect of the spatial external effect,and when the government makes energy saving strategies,inter-regional energy cooperation and the proliferation of advanced production technology should be given more priority;(3) energy efficiency has significant negative correlation with government intervention,industrial structure,ownership structure,the energy consumption structure,and resource endowments,and has positive correlation with the degree of opening-up and energy price.     

China's Voluntary Mitigation Target and Road of Low-carbon Development

China is going through a rapid development stage of industrialization and urbanization.Although tremendous achievements have been made in the aspects of energy conservation,improvement of energy effectiveness and development of new and renewable energies,because of the rapid development of economy,it is difficult to change the huge total amount and fast increase of CO2 emission in the near future.China has to confront the tough challenge to address global climate change.China plans to reduce carbon intensity,that is,CO2 emissions per unit GDP,by 40 to 45% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level.It is a strategic option to coordinate domestic sustainable development with coping with global climate change on the basis of China’s national circumstances,representing the core content and key measures for transforming development pattern and realizing low-carbon development.To achieve the target,more capital and technology inputs are required for energy conservation and low-carbon development during the twelfth and Thirteenth Five Year Plan period than in the Eleventh Five Year Plan period.In addition,energy conservation achieved by structural adjustment,industrial upgrading and product value-added improvement is also expected to play a greater role.Therefore,China should strengthen technological innovation,make greater efforts to transform the development pattern,take advantage of the synergistic effect of policies and measures while coping with global climate change and building a domestic tow-oriented society.China should also establish an industrial system characterized by low-carbon emission.Then China will ultimately achieve a win-win situation in both domestic sustainable development and coping with global climate change.     

China’s Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy:2006-2010

China achieved major progress in low-carbon development during the period of the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010). The increasing trend of energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy as seen prior to 2005 was reversed to a sharp decreasing trend, leading to a 19% decrease in energy intensity and 21% decrease in carbon intensity in five years. The enhanced energy efficiency, mostly due to efficiency improvement in power and manufacturing sector, is the major driver of the decrease in carbon intensity of the economy. The development of renewable energy, despite its impressive growth rate, played a minor role because of its small share in the energy mix of the country. Energy con-sumption and energy-related carbon emissions per unit of area in building continued to grow at a lesser rate, which, combined with the fast growth of total building volume, led to fast growth in total energy consumption and carbon emissions in the sector. Similar trend is observed in the transportation sector whose total energy use and carbon emissions continued to grow fast despite slight improvement in energy efficiency. Agricultural energy use experienced a slight change and forestry made a major contribution to carbon sinks. Policy and institutional innovations helped build a solid system of rules for low-carbon development. Improving cost effectiveness of the system remains a major challenge for the next five year plan period.     

Evolution Rules of Urban-rural Development and Inspiration for China＇s Agriculture

Based on urban-rural contrast coefficient, this article designs the agriculture relative development index （ARDI） as indicators measuring the intensity of urban rural dual structure which is comparable among the countries of the world. This article calculates ARDI of 40 countries from 1980 to 2004. The result shows that ARDI in the developed countries and most of the middle-income countries are rising and yet there are declines in most of the low-income countries. The result also showed that most countries＇ ARDI will see a decline at the earlier stage of industrialization, so their dual economic structure will also aggravate and urban-rural gap will widen. With the economic development, the tendency will change and ARDI presents a U-shape change overall. The turning point is when a country becomes a middle-income one.     

Multi-scales Analysis of Driving Forces on Land Use/Cover Change in China： Taking Farmland Returning to Forest or Grassland as a Case

Increasing populations are causing an increase in food demands, and the area of cultivated land expands every year. Inappropriate land transition from ecology to production results in the constant decline of the ecological security level and influences the regional sustainable development. Adjusting unreasonable land use mode and reconstructing natural land cover are important ways to maintain and improve the ecological environment. Also reclaiming farmland as areas for forests and grasslands （FRFG） is another way. Successful implementation of FRFG in China is the result of comprehensive effect of the multi-scales driving forces. This paper analyses the driving forces of FRFG in China on a national （country） -regional （province） - local （county） - household （farmer） level scale, and the results are： driving forces at the national scale include ecological and food security and the western development of China; at the regional scale, ecological and economic benefits become the main factors to influence the dimension of FRFG under the same policy. The driving forces can be divided into 6 types： industrial structure adjustment, water source protection, flood prevention, the Three-Gorge Project protection, reduction of the amount of sediment flowing into the Yellow River and wind erosion desertification prevention. The driving forces at the local scale can be divided into 12 types with developing leading industries, increasing farmers＇ income and improving agricultural production conditions as the main types; at the household scale, the national policy meeting farmers＇ demands and the optimization of individual interests are all driving forces.     

China's Regional Policies:Progress of the 11~(th) Five Year Plan Period and Prospect of the 12~(th) Five Year Plan Period

During the 11th Five Year Plan period,China improved its policy system for the overall strategy of regional development,and established and completed the policies intended for the promotion of regional cooperation and interaction.Thereupon,regional development in China took on a series of positive changes such as the enhancement of coordination.During the 12th Five Year Plan period,China will fully implement and continuously improve the policy measures for development in its four major regions,strengthen differentiated guidance to different regions in line with the planning for major function-oriented zones,and accelerate the establishment of basic systems that facilitate coordinated regional development.     

An International Comparative Analysis on China's Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

In this paper,the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries.Then,the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change,so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth.This study concludes that:First,there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries.With the convergence in per capita GDP gap,the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge,and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former,i.e.if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%,the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%.Second,the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure,the rising of energy prices,the advances of technology,and the expansion of investment in fixed assets,and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI.Third,the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment,energy prices,and technological progress between China and eight developed countries,yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI,and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure.Fourth,the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap,whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors,such as difference in investment,technology,and the competition mechanism of prices,which can determine the difference in economic growth,can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.     

Study on Residential Water Use in North China:Analysis of Nationwide Statistical Data and Case Study of Taiyuan City

Residential water use is gradually becoming the focus in China‘s municipal water supply planning and management in recent years. Little is known, however, about the residential water use in modem China due to the transition of economy and enhancement of management on water conservation. In order to better understand the characteristics of residential water use in North China, a model for identifying the determinants of residential water use was established and analyzed by using panel data and cross-section data methodologies. Then Taiyuan city, the capital city of Shanxi Province in Northern China was selected as a case study. Both the analyses and field investigation indicate that the relatively slow increase of residential water use in recent years may result from the implementation of strict laws and regulations on water conservation. And through the investigation,first-hand information about water consumption pattern, water reuse/conservation, people‘s attitude toward water quantity and quality, etc. have been obtained.