Current status of climate change adaptation plans across the United States

The objective of the analysis is to compare the current status of state level climate change adaptation plans across the United States (U.S.) and to analyze potential factors that may influence their status. Based on their most current adaptation planning documentation individual states are grouped into four categories depending on how far they are in their approach towards adaptation to predicted changes in climate and how they have progressed with their planning efforts in defining adaptation measures. The analysis of the state adaptation plans showed that 13 states had detailed sector specific actions recommended, 2 states had sector specific targets and recommendation, 14 states had expressed concern and need for adaptation planning, whereas 21 states did not mention the need for adaptation planning. The statistical analysis showed that Democratic Party popular votes are 10 % higher in states with detailed sector specific actions recommended in comparison to states with no mention of adaptation planning (p?<?0.01). The average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in states having an adaptation planning status with detailed sector specific actions recommended is more than $6,000 higher compared to states with expressed concern and need for adaptation planning and states with no mention of adaptation planning (p?<?0.05). The average coastal population in states with detailed sector specific actions recommended is more than seven times higher compared to states with expressed concern and states with no mention of adaptation planning (p?<?0.01). It is concluded that the U.S. state planning initiatives will need to strengthen their approach to adaptation planning substantially to have holistic and more coordinated adaptation planning efforts.     

Adaptation to climate change in the Northeast United States: opportunities, processes, constraints

Scientific evidence accumulating over the past decade documents that climate change impacts are already being experienced in the US Northeast. Policy-makers and resource managers must now prepare for the impacts from climate change and support implementing such plans on the ground. In this paper we argue that climate change challenges the region to maintain its economic viability, but also holds some opportunities that may enhance economic development, human well-being, and social justice. To face these challenges and seize these opportunities effectively we must better understand adaptation capacities, opportunities and constraints, the social processes of adaptation, approaches for engaging critical players and the broader public in informed debate, decision-making, and conscious interventions in the adaptation process. This paper offers a preliminary qualitative assessment, in which we emphasize the need for (1) assessing the feasibility and side effects of technological adaptation options, (2) increasing available resources and improving equitable access to them, (3) increasing institutional flexibility, fit, cooperation and decision-making authority, (4) using and enhancing human and social capital, (5) improving access to insurance and other risk-spreading mechanisms, and (6) linking scientific information more effectively to decision-makers while engaging the public. Throughout, we explore these issues through illustrative sectoral examples. We conclude with a number of principles that may guide the preparation of future adaptation plans for the Northeast.     

China, the United States and technology cooperation on climate control

The U.S. and China are the world's largest and second largest CO₂ emitters, respectively, and to what extent the U.S. and China get involved in combating global climate change is extremely important both for lowering compliance costs of climate mitigation and adaptation and for moving international climate negotiations forward. While it is unavoidable that China will take on commitments at some specific point of time in the future, this paper has argued that the proposal for joint accession by the U.S. and China is not a way forward. For various reasons, such a proposal is in the U.S. interest, but is not in the interest of China. Given the U.S. political reality and institutional settings on the one hand and China's over-riding concern about economic growth and poverty reduction on the other, the two countries are unlikely to take on emissions caps under an international regime, at least for the time being. Therefore, we need to explore the area where cooperation between the two countries to address climate change seems best. The research, development and deployment of clean technology is the area that is in the best interests of the two countries. The U.S. has adopted a technology-oriented approach to climate issues, and has launched the four multilateral initiatives on technology cooperation and the Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (APP). China has participated in all these U.S.-led initiatives, and is a partner to the APP. Strengthened technology cooperation between the two countries through these initiatives and the APP has led some tangible benefits. However, it should be pointed out that while technology is a critical ingredient in a climate policy package, efforts such as the APP can only be part of the solution. They alone cannot ensure that best available technologies are always deployed in the marketplace, and that new technologies will roll out at the pace and on the scale that we need. In order to have such technology-oriented approach to play a full role, we do need a coordinated policy framework agreed via the Kyoto Protocol or a follow-up regime or the parent United Nations Framework Convention.     

Coastal flooding in the Northeastern United States due to climate change

With dense population and development along its coastline, the northeastern United States is, at present, highly vulnerable to coastal flooding. At five sea level stations in the United States, from Massachusetts to New Jersey, sea level rise (SLR) trends and tidal effects were removed from the hourly sea level time series and then frequency analysis was performed on the positive remaining anomalies that represent storm surge heights. Then using eustatic SLR estimates for lower and higher greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and assumed trends in local sea level rise, new recurrence intervals were determined for future storm surges. Under the higher emissions scenario, by 2050, the elevation of the 2005 100-year event may be equaled or exceeded at least every 30 years at all sites. In more exposed US cities such as Boston, Massachusetts and Atlantic City, New Jersey, this could occur at the considerably higher frequency of every 8 years or less. Under the lower emissions scenario, by 2050, the elevation of the 2005 100-year event may be equaled or exceeded at least every 70 years at all sites. In Boston and Atlantic City, this could occur every 30 years or less.     

Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States

We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern United States. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential future distributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) and three climate models: the Parallel Climate, the Hadley CM3, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in this region, especially under a high emissions trajectory. Results indicate that while species with potentially increasing areas of suitable habitat in the Northeastern US substantially outnumber those with decreasing areas of habitat, there are key species that show diminishing habitat area: balsam fir (Abies balsamea), paper birch (Betula papyrifera), red spruce (Picea rubens), bigtooth and quaking aspen (Populus grandidentata and P. tremuloides), and black cherry (Prunus serotina). From these results we identified the top 10 losers and gainers for each US state in the region by scenario and emissions trajectory. By combining individual species importance maps and developing assembly rules for various classes, we created maps of potential forest types for the Northeast showing a general loss of the spruce–fir zone with advancing oak–hickory type. Further data, maps, and analysis can be found at http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas.     

Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives

To study mitigation and adaptation to climate change, social scientists have drawn on different approaches, particularly sociological approaches to the future and comparative history of past societies. These two approaches frame the social and temporal boundaries of decision-making collectivities in different ways. A consideration of the responses to climate variability in three historical cases, the Classic Maya of Mexico and Central America, the Viking settlements in Greenland, and the US Dust Bowl, shows the value of integrating these two approaches.     

Drought adaptation in rural eastern Oklahoma in the 1930s: lessons for climate change adaptation research

In the mid-1930s, eastern Oklahoma, USA, suffered an unusually harsh mixture of droughts and extreme rainfall events that led to widespread crop failure over several years. These climatic conditions coincided with low commodity prices, agricultural restructuring and general economic collapse, creating tremendous hardship in rural and agriculturally dependent areas. Using a previously developed typology of agricultural adaptation, this paper reports empirical research conducted to identify the ways by which the rural population of Sequoyah County adapted to such conditions. Particular attention is given to categorizing the scale at which adaptation occurred, the actors involved and the constraints to implementation. The findings identify successes and opportunities missed by public policy makers, and suggest possible entry points for developing adaptation strategies for current and future, analogous situations that may arise as a result of climate change.     

Social dilemmas,policy instruments,and climate adaptation measures: the case of green roofs

Green roofs contribute to both climate change adaptation and mitigation. Promoting green roofs is thus a key element in urban strategies to address climate change. How to actually promote green roofs, however, has so far proven elusive: attempts to link specific policy instruments to a more or less successful diffusion of green roofs have been few and far between. The present paper relies on institutional economics to advance the present understanding of the link between policy instruments and green roofs. It argues that different green roofs are confronted with different social dilemmas, and thus require different policy instruments. Specifically, small green roofs face a free-rider problem, which is best addressed through regulations and incentives. Large green roofs face instead a collective action problem, which is best addressed through communications and network-building. This perspective is tested empirically through a comparative analysis of 18 global cities on the forefront in the promotion of green roofs. The policy instruments observed in these cities match with the theoretical expectations laid down in the paper. Implications emerge for both policy and research.

     

Prioritization of climate change adaptation approaches in the Gambia

Adaptation to climate change has been recognized as very important in developing countries that face the greatest threats from global warming. In proposing various adaptation approaches, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change required nations to prepare adaptation plans of action. However, the areas of priority in climate change adaptation have not been considered. This study has developed a new prioritization methodology for climate change adaptation in developing countries. Five categories and 25 approaches in climate change adaptation were adopted through a thorough and detailed analysis of pertinent literature related to the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) in the Gambia. A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process-based questionnaire survey was designed and presented to 12 experts chosen from the committee members of the Gambia’s NAPA. The survey was made to determine the relative importance of the strategies for climate change adaptation. The results indicate that the five most important adaptation categories are health (0.223), forestry (0.213), water (0.210), food (0.181), and energy (0.174), with health as the number one priority in climate change adaptation. Further findings show that the prioritization order of the adaptation approaches to climate change in the Gambia is as follows: “Health education,” “public sensitization,” “water supply infrastructure development,” “microfinance,” and “infrastructure and technology enhancement.”     

Multilevel water,biodiversity and climate adaptation governance: evaluating adaptive management in Lesotho

In many cases in which climate change affects natural resources, impacts are uncertain and adaptation to climate change often involves collective action problems at the local level, which are embedded in multilevel governance regimes. Adaptive management (AM) is an emerging approach to deal with such uncertainty and complexity by promoting multilevel institutions that are robust to change and able to learn. Much of the literature evaluating AM in multilevel governance regimes, however, focuses only on the adherence to certain structural features said to make AM successful, leaving aside the question whether AM actually produces desired outcomes. This paper evaluates AM in multilevel regimes also in terms of the outcomes they produce. To this end, we first apply the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) in order to describe three multilevel regimes in Lesotho. For each regime we then observe whether it adheres to the structure features of AM. Finally, we evaluate the extent to which the outcomes, natural resource management projects, are conducive to Ostrom's (1990) ‘design principles’ for sustainable common-pool resource management. We find that, though no ideal ‘adaptive regime’ is found in Lesotho, the results confirm the AM hypotheses that decentralised decision-making, open information sources, and plurality of user interests lead to improved outcomes. Conversely, elements of the climate regime are found not to be adaptive. Our findings also confirm the appropriateness of AM as a governance approach to climate adaptation.     

FOCUS: A pilot study for national-scale critical loads development in the United States

The development and use of critical loads of air pollutant deposition in the U.S. is gaining momentum, and recent research efforts in the U.S. have produced valuable data for calculating critical loads. Critical loads are used to quantify the levels of air pollutants that are expected to impact forest health, soil fertility, aquatic biota condition, and other ecosystem responses. In addition, model refinements for improving critical loads estimates, and maps for illustrating critical loads for acidification and nitrogen saturation and eutrophication resulting from excess nutrient nitrogen, have been developed at various scales. However, prior to the effort described here, no cohesive process existed to provide a national-scale critical loads database and maps as a unified product representing all U.S. ecosystems. The FOCUS (Focal Center Utility Study) Project was initiated to coordinate the development and implementation of a clear, consistent, repeatable process for calculating and mapping critical loads within the U.S. In the FOCUS Phase I Pilot Study, empirical and calculated critical loads data for the U.S. were synthesized from dozens of regional and national-scale monitoring networks, research projects and publically available databases following an approach similar to that used in Europe. The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), through its International Cooperative Programme on Modelling and Mapping of Critical Levels & Loads and Air Pollution Effects, Risks and Trends (ICP-M&M) collects, analyzes and maps critical loads data. Countries participating in the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) use a Critical Loads “Focal Center” in each country to serve as the point of contact for submitting regional and national-scale critical loads data to the ICP-M&M. One of the purposes of this study was to develop a foundation for interacting with other Focal Centers by assembling critical loads data, creating a database, establishing modeling protocols, and developing infrastructure within the U.S to report and update critical loads on a national scale. Because the U.S. does not currently have an officially designated Focal Center, critical loads data were provided as an informal, unofficial submission to the Coordination Center for Effects (CCE) of the ICP-M&M in March 2011, in the interest of international cooperation and exchange of information on the effects of atmospheric deposition of pollutants on ecosystems. We envision that these data will enable U.S. scientists, land managers, and environmental policymakers to enter into a productive and meaningful dialogue within the US, and also with the international scientific community on methods for estimating, calculating, mapping, interpreting, and refining critical loads for the effects of acidification and excess nutrient nitrogen on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This paper describes the process used to develop national-scale critical loads in the U.S., summarizes the FOCUS Phase I approach and database development effort, and presents some initial national-scale critical loads mapping products.     

Assessment of risks for adaptation to climate change: the case of land-slides

This paper describes how relatively detailed knowledge about probabilities of natural hazards can be used to make decisions to develop areas and control the risk within hazard zones. The assessment serves two purposes. First, it shows how information can support decisions. Second, decision criteria put leads on what information is required. This is helpful to identify unavailable information. We show by an example from a land-slide prone area in Norway how a relatively reliable estimate of the probability of slides ends up in a rather uncertain estimate of the risk. Uncertainty about the risk represented by natural hazards imply great challenges to the development of adaptation policies to meet climate change, but they are required. We develop a simplified criterion for optimal adaptation, and estimate the added social value required to defend development in hazard prone areas instead of developing a risk-free alternative. The value is estimated between 0 and 0.40 Euros per Euro invested in the case area, depending on type of slide, category of asset and other costs that occur in the wake of slides.     

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.     

Climate change, aerobiology, and public health in the Northeast United States

The epidemiological implications with respect to climate change and public health (e.g., shifts in disease vectors) are beginning to be acknowledged. Less recognized however, are the potential links between climate, plant biology and public health. In addition to being affected by climate (e.g., temperature determines plant range), carbon dioxide (CO₂) represents the raw material needed for photosynthesis and its rapid increase in the atmosphere is expected to stimulate plant growth. While there are a number of means by which plant biology intersects with human health (e.g., plant nutrition), one of the most widely recognized is aerobiology; specifically, the ability of plants to both produce pollen and to serve as a substrate for molds/fungi (e.g., sporulation). The current review represents an initial attempt to coalesce what is known regarding the likely impacts of climate/CO₂ on plant pollen/fungal spores and associated allergic disease that are, or could be, specific to the Northeast United States. Although the current results indicate a number of potentially unfavorable effects, we wish to stress that the current data are based on a small number of experiments. Additional data are crucial to both reduce epidemiological uncertainty and to derive a robust set of mitigation / adaptation strategies.     

Evaluating climate impacts on carbon balance of the terrestrial ecosystems in the Midwest of the United States with a process-based ecosystem model

The Midwest of the United States includes 12 states and accounts for about a quarter of the total United State land area. In recent years, there is an increasing interest in knowing the biomass potential and carbon balance over this region for the past and the future. In this study, we use the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to evaluate these quantities in the region from 1948 to 2099. We first parameterize the model with field data of major crops, including corn (Zea mays), soybean (Glycine max), and wheat (Triticum spp); then the model is applied to the region for the historical period (1948–2000). Next, we evaluate the simulated forestry biomass with forest inventory data, the agricultural net primary production (NPP) with agricultural statistics data, and the regional NPP with a satellite-based product at the regional scale. Our results show that the simulated annual NPP for the Midwest increased by 1.75% per year and the whole Midwest terrestrial ecosystem acted as a carbon sink during 1948–2005. During the 21st century, vegetation and soil carbon fluxes and pools show an increase trend with a great inter-annual variability. The ecosystems serve as a carbon sink under future climate scenarios. NPP in the Midwest will increase and net ecosystem production (NEP) will also increase and show an even larger interannual variability. This study provides the information of the biomass and NEP at a state- level in the Midwest, which will be valuable for the region stakeholders to better manage their land for the purpose of increasing carbon sequestration on the one hand and meeting the increasing demand of biomass on the other.     

Analytical lenses on barriers in the governance of climate change adaptation

Barriers to adaptation have become an important concept in scientific and political discussions in the governance of climate change adaptation. Over the past years, these discussions have been dominated by one analytical lens in examining barriers and proposing ways to overcome them: the problem solving lens. In this paper, we aim to demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the choice of analytical lens influences how barriers to adaptation are constructed and the intervention strategies proposed. Drawing from recent governance literature, we explore the rationale of three dominant philosophies in the study of governance: the optimist, the realist, and the pessimist philosophy. Next, we demonstrate how these philosophies are operationalized and guide scientific inquiry on barriers to adaptation through four empirically rooted analytical lenses: i) governance as problem solving, ii) governance as competing values and interests, iii) governance as institutional interaction, and iv) governance as dealing with structural constraints. We investigate the Dutch government’s Spatial Adaptation to Climate Change programme through each of the four lenses. We discuss how each analytical lens frames barriers in a specific way, identifies different causes of barriers, leads to competing interpretations of key events, and presents other types of interventions to overcome barriers. We conclude that it is necessary to increase analytical variety in order to critically engage in theoretical debates about barriers and to empower policy practitioners in their search for successful intervention strategies to implement adaptation measures.     

Institutional challenges to climate change adaptation: A case study on policy action gaps in Uganda

Despite the considerable progress made in the last decade towards building governance systems for climate change adaptation in Africa, implementation still limits positive responses. This study applies an iterative process of field assessments and literature reviews across multiple governance levels and spatial scales to identify constraints to effective formulation and implementation of climate change related policies and strategies in Uganda. Data was collected through sex-segregated participatory vulnerability assessments with farming communities in Rakai district, policy document reviews, and interviews with policy actors at national and district levels. Findings reveal that the key challenges to effective policy implementation are diverse and cut across the policy development and implementation cycle. Policies are mainly developed by central government agencies; other actors are insufficiently involved while local communities are excluded. There is also a communication disconnect between national, district, and community levels. Coupled with limited technical capacity and finances, political interference, and absence of functional implementation structures across these levels, climate change adaptation becomes constrained. We propose strategies that enhance linkages between levels and actors, which will improve policy formulation, implementation and ultimately adaptation by smallholders.     

A comparison of five high-resolution spatially-explicit,fossil-fuel,carbon dioxide emission inventories for the United States

The quantification of fossil-fuel-related emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is necessary in order to accurately represent carbon cycle fluxes and to understand and project the details of the global carbon cycle. In addition, the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of carbon dioxide emissions is necessary for the success of international agreements to reduce emissions. However, existing fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO₂) emissions inventories vary in terms of the data and methods used to estimate and distribute FFCO₂. This paper compares how the approaches used to create spatially explicit FFCO₂ emissions inventories affect the spatial distribution of emissions estimates and the magnitude of emissions estimates in specific locales. Five spatially explicit FFCO₂ emission inventories were compared: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS), Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO₂ (ODIAC), and Vulcan. The effects of using specific data and approaches in the creation of spatially explicit FFCO₂ emissions inventories, and the effect of resolution on data representation are analyzed using graphical, numerical, and cartographic approaches. We examined the effect of using top-down versus bottom-up approaches, nightlights versus population proxies, and the inclusion of large point sources. The results indicate that the approach used to distribute emissions in space creates distinct patterns in the distribution of emissions estimates and hence in the estimates of emissions in specific locations. The different datasets serve different purposes but collectively show the key role of large point sources and urban centers and the strong relationship between scale and uncertainty.