Juvenile Survival in a Population of Neotropical Migrant Birds

Determination of population productivity of Neotropical migrant birds and assessment of breeding habitat quality have been based on population densities and nesting success. Data on juvenile survival improve our estimates of population productivity, provide information on factors during the post-fledging period that affect this productivity and, with comparative data, enable us to better assess breeding habitat quality. We present the first estimate of post-fledging juvenile survival in a population of Neotropical migrant birds. We studied post-fledging survival in a population of Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina) in southern Missouri, (U.S.) an area hypothesized to contain source populations. Nesting success during our study period was 0.266, and individual survival within the nest was 0.245. Post-fledging survival during the first 8 weeks after fledging was 0.423. Survival varied significantly between post-fledging weekly age classes, with survival of weeks 1, 2, 3, and 4 through 8 being 0.716, 0.930, 0.637, and 1.00, respectively. Probability of predation after fledging was 0.506. Probability of mortality by other causes was 0.071. Probability of predation varied by weekly age class and may have been related to behaviors occurring at different developmental stages. Post-fledging survival was not correlated with nestling mass and did not change throughout the course of the breeding season. Analysis of the source/sink status of the population based on our estimates of nesting success and post-fledging survival indicates that young were being produced below replacement levels during our study period. Large-scale management decisions should take into account potential fluctuations in the productivity of Neotropical migrant populations over time. Data on post-fledging juvenile survival are needed from other populations of Neotropical migrant birds to more accurately assess differential productivity between populations and better assess breeding habitat quality.     

Pre-reproductive survival in a tropical bird and its implications for avian life histories

The factors that affect survival until reproduction are essential to understanding the organization of life histories within and among species. Theory predicts, for example, that survival until reproduction influences the optimum level of reproductive investment by parents, which might partly explain prolonged parental care in species with high first-year survival. Tests and refinements of life-history theory have been hampered, however, by a lack of field-based estimates of pre-reproductive survival, especially for tropical species, which have been the subject of many comparative analyses. Tropical species are predicted to have higher first-year survival and delayed reproduction compared to Northern Hemisphere species. We estimated survival until reproduction, age at first reproduction, and sources of variation in juvenile survival in a Neotropical passerine, the Western Slaty-Antshrike (Thamnophilus atrinucha), in central Panama. We observed that fledged antshrikes had 76% survival through the dependent period and 48% survival to the age of 1 year; survival rate was lowest during the first week after leaving the nest. Timing of fledging within the breeding season, fledgling mass, and age at dispersal influenced survival, while sex of offspring and year did not. Individuals did not breed until two years of age, and post-fledging pre-reproductive survival was 41% of annual adult survival. High survival until reproduction in antshrikes balanced their low annual productivity, resulting in a stable population. Survival during the post-fledging period of dependence and the first year of independence in the Western Slaty-Antshrike exceeded estimates for Northern Hemisphere species. This difference appears to be associated with the extended post-fledging parental care, delayed dispersal, low costs of dispersal, and the less seasonal environment of antshrikes.     

Do fledglings choose wisely? An experimental investigation into social foraging behaviour

Many cooperative bird species have an extended period of post-fledging care. Despite the fact that this period of care can last up to several months, it remains a relatively understudied stage of chick development. This period, when young are actively begging but highly mobile, provides an opportunity for young to maximise the amount of care they receive by selectively choosing particular adults to beg from. In pied babblers Turdoides bicolor (a cooperatively breeding passerine), fledglings closely follow foraging adults and beg for food regularly (a behavioural interaction termed social foraging). Using a combination of natural observations and experimental manipulations, we found that fledgling pied babblers preferentially socially forage with adult care-givers who have high foraging success, since this results in young receiving more food. By supplementally feeding adults to artificially increase their foraging success, we increased the proportion of time that fledglings chose to socially forage with them, confirming that fledglings are selectively choosing dyadic interactions with the best adult foragers. These results indicate that pied babbler fledglings are sensitive to and can respond to short-term changes in adult foraging success, enabling them to maximize their nutritional intake, a behavioural adjustment that has long-term benefits in this system.     

Fitness consequences of pre- and post-fledging timing decisions in a double-brooded passerine

The fitness consequences of a delayed timing of breeding are expected to affect the temporal characteristics of the whole annual breeding system. One major problem in quantifying the fitness relevance of timing is that individual differences between pairs may cause the seasonal trend. Differentials in juvenile survival due to pre-fledging timing decisions often only appear after fledging of the chicks. Therefore, timing decisions in the post-fledging period, i.e., the duration of parental care, might additionally influence juvenile survival. We tested the effects of timing and parental competence on the post-fledging survival of second-brood juvenile Barn Swallows (Hirundo rustica L.) by swapping earlier and later hatching clutches and radio-tracking the juvenile subjects. The mark-recapture models controlled for the effects of duration of post-fledging care and food availability. There was an annually varying negative seasonal trend in offspring survival that was associated with environmental conditions. Directional selection for early breeding occurred in the two years with scarce autumnal food supply. Furthermore, we found strong selection for long post-fledging parental care. The duration of care neither declined seasonally, nor did longer care compensate for the seasonal decline of juvenile survival. Hence, the reproductive output three weeks after fledging was determined by two parental timing decisions: the timing of breeding and the timing of family breakup. We suggest that differential survival of second-brood fledglings in relation to these decisions is an important part of the selective mechanisms shaping the reproductive system of Barn Swallows.     

Grassland songbirds in a dynamic management landscape: behavioral responses and management strategies.

In recent decades, earlier and more frequent harvests of agricultural grasslands have been implicated as a major cause of population declines in grassland songbirds. From 2002 to 2005, in the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, USA, we studied the reproductive success of Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) and Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) on four grassland treatments: (1) early-hayed fields cut before 11 June and again in early- to mid-July; (2) middle-hayed fields cut once between 21 June and 10 July; (3) late-hayed fields cut after 1 August; and (4) rotationally grazed pastures. Both the number of fledglings per female per year and nest success (logistic-exposure method) varied among treatments and between species. Although birds initiated nests earlier on early-hayed fields compared to others, haying caused 99% of active Savannah Sparrow and 100% of active Bobolink nests to fail. Both the initial cutting date and time between cuttings influenced renesting behavior. After haying, Savannah Sparrows generally remained on early-hayed fields and immediately renested (clutch completion 15.6 +/- 1.28 days post-haying; all values are reported as mean +/- SE), while Bobolinks abandoned the fields for at least two weeks (mean clutch completion 33 +/- 0.82 days post-haying). While female Savannah Sparrows fledged more offspring per year (1.28 +/- 0.16) than female Bobolinks (0.05 +/- 0.05), reproductive success on early-hayed fields was low. The number of fledglings per female per year was greater on middle-hayed fields (Savannah Sparrows, 3.47 +/- 0.42; Bobolinks, 2.22 +/- 0.26), and late-hayed fields (Savannah Sparrows, 3.29 +/- 0.30; Bobolinks, 2.79 +/- 0.18). Reproductive success was moderate on rotationally grazed pastures, where female Savannah Sparrows and female Bobolinks produced 2.32 +/- 0.25 and 1.79 +/- 0.33 fledgling per year, respectively. We simultaneously conducted cutting surveys throughout the Champlain Valley and found that 3-8% of hayfield habitat was cut by 1-4 June, 25-40% by 12-16 June, and 32-60% by 28 June-2 July. Thus, the majority of grassland habitat was cut during the breeding season; however, late-hayed fields served as high-quality reserves for late-nesting female Bobolinks that were displaced from previously hayed fields. For fields first cut in May, a 65-day interval between cuts could provide enough time for both species to successfully fledge young.     

Consumer resource matching in urbanizing landscapes: are synanthropic species over-matching?

Population responses of synanthropic species to urbanization may be explained by the resource-matching rule, which postulates that individuals should distribute themselves according to resource availability. According to the resource-matching rule, urban habitats will contain greater densities if they provide better resources than rural habitats. However, because resource availability is density dependent, individuals in urban areas would ultimately achieve fitness levels comparable to, but no better than, individuals in less urban areas. Some ecologists suggest that synanthropic birds may not conform to the resource-matching rule and may instead overmatch (i.e., overexploit) in urban habitats, ultimately leading to lower fitness despite greater resource levels. Using the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) as a focal species, we evaluated if Cardinal populations in urban and rural habitats were consistent with predictions of consumer resource matching. During 2003-2006 we documented population density, adult body condition, apparent survival, and annual reproductive productivity of Cardinals in riparian forest stands within urban (n = 8 stands) and rural (n = 6 stands) landscapes in Ohio, USA. Density of Cardinals in urban forests was four times that found in more rural forests. Mark-resight data from 147 males and 125 females over four years indicated that apparent survival rates were similar between urban and rural landscapes (phi = 0.64, SE = 0.039 for males and phi = 0.57, SE = 0.04 for females). Similarly, body condition indices of 168 males, 142 females, and 118 nestlings did not differ significantly between landscapes. Annual reproductive productivity (mean number of fledglings per pair over breeding season) of 294 pairs was comparable for urban (2.4 +/- 0.18 [mean +/- SE] and rural (2.1 +/- 0.18) young birds. Thus, contrary to recent suggestions, we find that high densities of certain synanthropic species in urban landscapes are consistent with expectations of consumer resource matching.     

Helping at the nest,allofeeding and social status in immature arabian babblers

Summary Arabian babblers, Turdoides sqamiceps, are cooperatively breeding, group territorial birds, occurring in desert habitats. Non-breeders participate in several types of cooperative behaviour, including care of eggs, nestlings and fledglings, and bringing food to one another (allofeeding). This paper reports on observations of helping with eggs and young, and peer allofeeding, performed by immature babblers, fledged the previous season or earlier in the same season. The birds were from a babbler population studied since 1971 in the Arava valley of eastern Israel. They belonged to groups in which all individuals had been colourringed and were accustomed to human observers. Individuals and nests in the territories of these groups could be watched from distances of 1–2 m without causing alarm, so fine details of behaviour could be observed in the field. In most allofeeding interactions observed, a more dominant individual brought food to a subordinate. Sometimes the subordinate bird avoided accepting the proferred food, and was then hit or chased by the bird that had attempted to feed it. Occasionally a subordinate bird attempted to feed a more dominant individual. Dominant birds always refused to take food offered by a subordinate, and hit or chased any subordinate attempting to feed them. Frequencies of visits to nests were correlated with helper rank for those visits where the incoming bird displaced a previous visiter from the nest. Frequences of visits to unattended nests, however, were not correlated with helper rank. Similarly, frequencies of feeding visits to fledglings were correlated with helper rank until incubation of the next brood began. After this, the correlation disappeared. Numerous instances of aborted nest visits were observed in which a helper, often carrying food, arrived at the nest-tree but left again without visiting the nest. In many other cases, a helper arrived at the nest-tree but delayed visiting the nest for several minutes. Aborted and delayed visits usually occurred when a more dominant bird was in the vicinity of the nest. This suggests interference between helpers. Direct interference between helpers visiting fledglings was occasionally observed. In such cases, a more dominant helper snatched food from a subordinate approaching fledglings, and then fed this food to the fledglings itself. Interference between helpers, and conflict between proferers and recipients of food during allofeeding, are not easily explained by kin selection or reciprocity. On the other hand, such behaviour is readily explained by a hypothesis which suggests that individuals may increase their social status in the group by performing cooperative behaviour. Babblers that establish status by demonstrating ability to bear the short-term costs of cooperative behaviour, rather than through direct aggression towards rivals, are likely to forge collaborative relationships with other group members. Since babblers must collaborate to establish and defend a territory, such relationships are essential to reproductive success.     

Great spotted cuckoo fledglings are disadvantaged by magpie host parents when reared together with magpie nestlings

The post-fledging period is a critical phase for juvenile survival, and parental care provided during this period is a key component of avian reproductive performance. Very little is known about the relationships between foster parents and fledglings of brood parasites. Here, we present the results of a 5-year study about the relationships between fledglings of the non-evictor brood parasitic great spotted cuckoo (Clamator glandarius) and its magpie (Pica pica) foster parents. Sometimes, great spotted cuckoo and magpie nestlings from the same nest can fledge successfully, but most often parasitic nestlings outcompete host nestlings and only cuckoos leave the nest. We have studied several aspects of cuckoo post-fledging performance (i.e. feeding behaviour, parental defence and fledgling survival) in experimental nests in which only cuckoos or both magpie and cuckoo nestlings survived until leaving the nest. The results indicate that great spotted cuckoo fledglings reared in mixed broods together with magpie nestlings were disadvantaged by magpie adults with respect to feeding patterns. Fledgling cuckoos reared in mixed broods were fed less frequently than those reared in only cuckoo broods, and magpie adults approached less frequently to feed cuckoos from mixed broods than cuckoos from only cuckoo broods. These results imply that the presence of host's own nestlings for comparison may be a crucial clue favouring the evolution of fledgling discrimination; and furthermore, that the risk of discrimination at the fledgling stage probably is an important selection pressure driving the evolution of the arms race between brood parasites and their hosts.     

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.     

Use of fecundity measured directly throughout the breeding season to test a source-sink demographic model

Populations of landbirds (bird species that occupy terrestrial habitats for most of their life cycle) are declining throughout North America (north of Mexico) and Europe, yet little is known about how demography is driving this trend. A recent model of 5 geographically separated populations of Cerulean Warblers (Dendroica cerulea) that was based on within-season sampling of nest survival and fledgling success shows that all populations are sinks (annual reproduction is consistently less than annual adult mortality). I tested this indirect model by directly measuring fecundity (number of female fledglings/female) during the breeding season for 2 years in a Cerulean Warbler population occupying a mature forest in southwestern Michigan (U.S.A.) I determined territories of male birds on the basis of male plumage characters and phases of the nesting cycle (2007) and on uniquely color-banded males (2008). I transferred locations of identified males to topographic maps. I counted all fledglings in territories from May to July each year. The model I tested may apply only to single-brooded species; therefore, I searched the literature to estimate the percentage of single-brooded species in North America. The breeding season of Cerulean Warblers was short- nearly all nests were initiated from mid-May to late June. Nest predation and brood parasitism were primary and rare causes of nest failure, respectively. Significantly fewer Cerulean Warblers fledged from parasitized than from nonparasitized nests. Fledgling survival required to maintain the population size was well above previously published values for Neotropical migrants. Single-brooded species comprise 62% of North American breeding bird species for which the number of broods per year is known; I believe my results may apply to these species. The consistency between identification of populations as sources or sinks on the basis of either model estimates or direct measurements suggests that a demographic model relying on within-season sampling of fecundity is adequate to determine population status of single-brooded avian populations. In addition, on the basis of results of previous studies, annual adult survival rate of the Cerulean Warbler is typical of parulid warblers that are not declining. Thus, low fecundity, here determined with different quantitative methods, can drive status of landbird species with high-observed survival.     

Independent effects of food and predator-mediated processes on annual fecundity in a songbird

We investigated the relative importance and interaction of ecological processes affecting annual fecundity in birds by simultaneously manipulating food availability and nest predation risk in a small songbird, the Wrentit (Chamaea fasciata). From 2000 to 2002 we provided supplemental food to individual Wrentit territories, and during 2002 we altered nest predation risk by providing supplemental food to their principal predators, Western Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma californica). These experiments were conducted during a period of high interannual variation in rainfall, with 2002 being one of the driest years on record. Food-supplemented Wrentits in a normal predation environment produced an average of 0.54 more fledglings per year than control pairs over the three breeding seasons. During the feeding plus predation manipulation experiment, Wrentit food supplementation and lowered nest predation risk each independently increased the probability that a Wrentit pair would fledge young; however, the interaction between food supplementation and altered nest predation risk was not significant. Thus, even in an extreme drought year, both food and nest predation had equal but independent effects on reproductive success and annual fecundity. Combining supplemental food with reduced nest predation did not result in a synergistic increase in annual fecundity, primarily because Wrentits did not produce multiple broods. Our results suggest that whether food and predation have additive or synergistic effects on reproductive success depends on the life history of the species and the environment in which they live.     

Sex-specific effects of the local social environment on juvenile post-fledging dispersal in great tits

An individual’s decision to disperse from the natal habitat can affect its future fitness prospects. Especially in species with sex-biased dispersal, we expect the cost–benefit balance for dispersal to vary according to the social environment (e.g., local sex ratio and density). However, little is known about the social factors affecting dispersal decisions and about the temporal and spatial patterns of the dispersal process. In our study, we investigated experimentally the effects of the social environment on post-fledging dispersal of juvenile great tits by simultaneously manipulating the density and sex ratio of fledglings within forest plots. We expected young females in the post-fledging period mainly to compete for resources related to food and, as they are subordinate to males, we predicted higher female dispersal from male-biased plots. Juvenile males compete for vacant territories already in late summer and autumn; thus, we predicted increased male dispersal from high density and male-biased plots. We found that juvenile females had a higher probability to leave male-biased plots and had dispersed further from male-biased plots in the later post-fledging phase when juvenile males start to become territorial and more aggressive. Juvenile males were least likely to leave male-biased plots and had smallest dispersal distances from female-biased plots early after fledging. The results suggest that the social environment differentially affected the costs and benefits of philopatry for male and female juveniles. The local sex ratio of individuals is thus an important social trait to be considered for understanding sex-specific dispersal processes.     

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.     

Offspring sex ratio in relation to parental structural size and body condition in the long-lived wandering albatross (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Diomedea exulans</Emphasis>)

Sex ratio theory is one of the most controversial topics in evolutionary ecology. Many deviations from an equal production of males and females are reported in the literature, but few patterns appear to hold across species or populations. There is clearly a need to identify fitness effects of sex ratio variation. We studied this aspect in a population of a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans), using molecular sex-identification techniques. We report that parental traits affect both (1) fledgling traits in a sex-dependent way and (2) chick sex: Sons are overproduced when likely to be large at fledging and, to a lesser extent, daughters are overproduced when likely to be in good body condition at fledging. Because for the same population, a previous study reported that post-fledging survival was positively affected by size in males and by body condition in females, our results suggest that wandering albatrosses manipulate offspring sex to increase post-fledging survival.     

An analysis of reciprocal exchange of helping behavior in the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis)

We examine the frequency of reciprocal exchanges of helping behavior in three red-cockaded woodpecker populations to determine if such exchanges might constitute a significant fitness benefit of helping. Specifically, we determine how often helpers, once they become breeders, are assisted by young they previously helped raise. The estimated frequencies of reciprocal exchange of helping based on survival and status transition probabilities are low (2%). Observed frequencies of reciprocity are significantly higher than estimated frequencies in two of the three populations studied, suggesting that male fledglings more often remain on their natal territory as helpers if another helper is already present. High rates of retention of young males as helpers on high-quality territories or preferential helping of kin, as well as preferential helping of former care-givers, might explain this result. When the analysis is restricted to helpers unrelated to the young they help raise, which controls for preferential helping of kin and largely eliminates effects of territory quality, empirical estimates of the frequency of reciprocity do not differ from estimates calculated from population demography. We conclude that young males do not preferentially help former care-givers and that reciprocal exchange of help is not an important factor in the evolution of helping behavior in the red-cockaded woodpecker. In this species, all known benefits of helping behavior are indirect (i.e., derived through kin selection ) rather than direct. We discuss the occurrence of unrelated helpers in this context. Received: 10 August 1999 / Received in revised form: 13 February 2000 / Accepted: 19 February 2000     

Baboons adjust secondary sex ratio in response to predictors of sex-specific offspring survival

Summary Most theories of sex ratio adjustment assume that parents will adjust the sex ratio of births (secondary sex ratio) in a manner that maximizes offspring reproductive success (as long as this does not jeopardize parental reproductive success). Survival to maturity is typically the largest component of variance in offspring reproductive success. This should make environmental predictors of sex-specific offspring survival strong predictors of secondary sex ratio adjustment. We tested this survivorship maximization hypothesis for secondary sex ratio adjustment using data from a 17-year demographic study of 315 yellow baboon infants at Mikumi National Park, Tanzania. Sex differences were found in the degree to which several social and ecological conditions affected infant survival to 1 year. Female, but not male, infant survival was inversely correlated with birth order and the proportion of infant females in their birth cohort. Male, but not female, infant survival was inversely correlated with the amount of rainfall early in the year (January) and the proportion of infant males in their birth cohort; male survival also was positively correlated with maternal dominance rank. The consistency and timing of these effects across years suggested that such information was, in fact, available to females around the time of conception. Most importantly, social and ecological conditions that predicted improved survivorship of a given sex also were positively correlated with production of that sex. Early births were female-biased; and low January rainfall was correlated with a male-biased sex ratio, becoming increasingly female-biased as January rainfall increased. However, no sex ratio effects were correlated with maternal rank. Data supported the hypothesis that females adjusted secondary sex ratio in a manner that maximized sex-specific infant survival. This hypothesis also offered a plausible explanation for some of the contradictory data that have arisen from studies of maternal rank effects on sex ratio both within and between species.Correspondence to: S. K. Wasser     

Prey-mediated effects of drought on condition and survival of a terrestrial snake

Drought can have severe ecological effects and global climate-change theory predicts that droughts are likely to increase in frequency and severity. Therefore, it is important that we broaden our understanding of how drought affects not only individual species, but also multitrophic interactions. Here we document vegetation and small-mammal abundance and associated patterns of Texas ratsnake (Elaphe obsoleta) body condition and survival before, during, and after a drought in central Texas, USA. Vegetation (grass and forbs) height and small-mammal capture rates were two times greater in wet years compared to the drought year. The decline of small mammals (the snakes' principal prey) during the drought was associated with a drop in ratsnake body condition, consistent with reduced food intake. During the drought, snake mortality also increased 24%. Although higher snake mortality was attributable to predation and road mortality rather than being a direct result of starvation, an increase in risk-prone behavior by foraging snakes probably increased their exposure to those other mortality factors. Drought conditions lasted only for 21 months, and vegetation, small-mammal abundance, and snake condition had returned to pre-drought levels within a year. Although estimates of snake population size were not available, it is likely that substantially more than a year was required for the population to return to its previous size.     

Survival and remigration probabilities for loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

Few long-term mark-recapture tagging datasets exist to estimate population parameters for loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) recovery units. Using a two-state open robust design model, we analyzed a 20-year (1990–2009) mark-recapture dataset from the Keewaydin Island loggerhead nesting assemblage off the southwest coast of Florida (USA) in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For this analysis, 2,292 turtle encounters were evaluated, representing 841 individual nesting turtles. Survival was estimated at 0.73 (95 % CI 0.69–0.76). This estimate is comparable with survival estimates elsewhere in the Peninsular Florida subpopulation and is among the lowest estimates for the Northwest Atlantic loggerhead population. We documented no changes in remigration rates or clutch frequency over time. These are the first survival and remigration probabilities estimated for a loggerhead nesting assemblage in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.     

Modeling the Persistence of Small Populations of Strongly Interdependent Species: Figs and Fig Wasps

Conservation problems are usually studied at the population or ecosystem levels. Formulating predictive theory for the domain in between has been difficult. Fig trees and their pollinating wasps, principally tropical groups of organisms, form pairs of obligate mutualists that provide unique opportunities for studying the influence of species interactions on the survival of small populations. Survival of each partner depends on that of the associated species. The pollinator population can be maintained only if figs are produced year-round. Because fig trees flower synchronously at the individual level, wasps have to locate a new individual host tree at each generation. We describe results of simulation models estimating the minimum number of trees required to maintain a wasp population using two levels of the criteria: (1) different probability of survival (50% and 99%) and (2) different time of survival (5 or 1000 years). We also examined how these different estimates are sensitive to differences in the seasonality of flowering period and in the length of the period of female receptivity in figs. Such estimates can be used to understand the potential effects of the reduction of fig population size via fragmentation. Unlike most studies on the effect of low population size on population viability, our paper focuses on maintenance of a biotic interaction, rather than on single-species dynamics. The biotic interaction on which we focus is important because figs in many tropical ecosystems may be keystone resources for frugivores that are in turn essential seed dispersal agents for other plants.