Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.     

A model for the CO2 capture potential

Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, and the consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce the CO₂ emissions.Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO₂ emissions, but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO₂ emissions on a shorter time scale.A model to calculate the CO₂ capture potential has been developed, and it is estimated that 25 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally, 236 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO₂ emissions by 54% in the EU and 33% globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today.Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate. Therefore, the strategy to achieve the necessary CO₂ emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, and (3) wide implementation of CCS.     

Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO₂ emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO₂ removal from the atmosphere and of CO₂ absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.     

Large-scale utilization of biomass energy and carbon dioxide capture and storage in the transport and electricity sectors under stringent CO2 concentration limit scenarios

Large-scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems are a potentially large contributor to meeting global climate policy targets by the end of the century. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. A key aspect of the research presented here is that the costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are explicitly incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120–160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced globally by midcentury and 200–250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the majority source, along with growing utilization of waste-to-energy. The ability to draw on a diverse set of biomass-based feedstocks helps to reduce the pressure for drastic large-scale changes in land use and the attendant environmental, ecological, and economic consequences those changes would unleash. In terms of the conversion of bioenergy feedstocks into value added energy, this paper demonstrates that biomass is and will continue to be used to generate electricity as well as liquid transportation fuels. A particular focus of this paper is to show how climate policies and technology assumptions – especially the availability of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies – affect the decisions made about where the biomass is used in the energy system. The potential for net-negative electric sector emissions through the use of CCS with biomass feedstocks provides an attractive part of the solution for meeting stringent emissions constraints; we find that at carbon prices above $150/tCO₂, over 90% of biomass in the energy system is used in combination with CCS. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, it is a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO₂ from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. CCS is also used heavily with other fuels such as coal and natural gas, and by 2095 a total of 1530 GtCO₂ has been stored in deep geologic reservoirs. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer–Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels as two representative conversion processes and shows that both technologies may be important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics.     

The potential for increased atmospheric CO2 emissions and accelerated consumption of deep geologic CO2 storage resources resulting from the large-scale deployment of a CCS-enabled unconventional fossil fuels industry in the U.S.

Desires to enhance the energy security of the United States have spurred renewed interest in the development of abundant domestic heavy hydrocarbon resources including oil shale and coal to produce unconventional liquid fuels to supplement conventional oil supplies. However, the production processes for these unconventional fossil fuels create large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and this remains one of the key arguments against such development. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies could reduce these emissions and preliminary analysis of regional CO₂ storage capacity in locations where such facilities might be sited within the U.S. indicates that there appears to be sufficient storage capacity, primarily in deep saline formations, to accommodate the CO₂ from these industries. Nevertheless, even assuming wide-scale availability of cost-effective CO₂ capture and geologic storage resources, the emergence of a domestic U.S. oil shale or coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry would be responsible for significant increases in CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. The authors present modeling results of two future hypothetical climate policy scenarios that indicate that the oil shale production facilities required to produce 3 MMB/d from the Eocene Green River Formation of the western U.S. using an in situ retorting process would result in net emissions to the atmosphere of between 3000 and 7000 MtCO₂, in addition to storing potentially 900–5000 MtCO₂ in regional deep geologic formations via CCS in the period up to 2050. A similarly sized, but geographically more dispersed domestic CTL industry could result in 4000–5000 MtCO₂ emitted to the atmosphere in addition to potentially 21,000–22,000 MtCO₂ stored in regional deep geologic formations over the same period. While this analysis shows that there is likely adequate CO₂ storage capacity in the regions where these technologies are likely to deploy, the reliance by these industries on large-scale CCS could result in an accelerated rate of utilization of the nation's CO₂ storage resource, leaving less high-quality storage capacity for other carbon-producing industries including electric power generation.     

Comparison of carbon capture and storage with renewable energy technologies regarding structural,economic, and ecological aspects in Germany

For the option of “carbon capture and storage”, an integrated assessment in the form of a life cycle analysis and a cost assessment combined with a systematic comparison with renewable energies regarding future conditions in the power plant market for the situation in Germany is done.The calculations along the whole process chain show that CCS technologies emit per kWh more than generally assumed in clean-coal concepts (total CO₂ reduction by 72–90% and total greenhouse gas reduction by 65–79%) and considerable more if compared with renewable electricity. Nevertheless, CCS could lead to a significant absolute reduction of GHG-emissions within the electricity supply system.Furthermore, depending on the growth rates and the market development, renewables could develop faster and could be in the long term cheaper than CCS based plants.Especially, in Germany, CCS as a climate protection option is phasing a specific problem as a huge amount of fossil power plant has to be substituted in the next 15 years where CCS technologies might be not yet available. For a considerable contribution of CCS to climate protection, the energy structure in Germany requires the integration of capture ready plants into the current renewal programs. If CCS retrofit technologies could be applied at least from 2020, this would strongly decrease the expected CO₂ emissions and would give a chance to reach the climate protection goal of minus 80% including the renewed fossil-fired power plants.     

Modeling the impacts of climate policy on the deployment of carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage across electric power regions in the United States

This paper summarizes the results of a first-of-its-kind holistic, integrated economic analysis of the potential role of carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS) technologies across the regional segments of the United States (U.S.) electric power sector, over the time frame 2005–2045, in response to two hypothetical emissions control policies analyzed against two potential energy supply futures that include updated and substantially higher projected prices for natural gas. This paper's detailed analysis is made possible by combining two specialized models developed at Battelle: the Battelle CO₂-GIS to determine the regional capacity and cost of CO₂ transport and geologic storage; and the Battelle Carbon Management Electricity Model, an electric system optimal capacity expansion and dispatch model, to examine the investment and operation of electric power technologies with CCS against the background of other options. A key feature of this paper's analysis is an attempt to explicitly model the inherent heterogeneities that exist in both the nation's current and future electricity generation infrastructure and in its candidate deep geologic CO₂ storage formations. Overall, between 180 and 580 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired integrated gasification combined cycle with CCS (IGCC + CCS) capacity is built by 2045 in these four scenarios, requiring between 12 and 41 gigatonnes of CO₂ (GtCO₂) storage in regional deep geologic reservoirs across the U.S. Nearly all of this CO₂ is from new IGCC + CCS systems, which start to deploy after 2025. Relatively little IGCC + CCS capacity is built before that time, primarily under unique niche opportunities. For the most part, CO₂ emissions prices will likely need to be sustained at over $20/tonne CO₂ before CCS begins to deploy on a large scale within the electric power sector. Within these broad national trends, a highly nuanced picture of CCS deployment across the U.S. emerges. Across the four scenarios studied here, power plant builders and operators within some North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) regions do not employ any CCS while other regions build more than 100 GW of CCS-enabled generation capacity. One region sees as much as 50% of its geologic CO₂ storage reservoirs’ total theoretical capacity consumed by 2045, while most of the regions still have more than 90% of their potential storage capacity available to meet storage needs in the second half of the century and beyond. A detailed presentation of the results for power plant builds and operation in two key regions: ECAR in the Midwest and ERCOT in Texas, provides further insight into the diverse set of economic decisions that generate the national and aggregate regional results.     

Life cycle assessment of a pulverized coal power plant with post-combustion capture, transport and storage of CO2

In this study the methodology of life cycle assessment has been used to assess the environmental impacts of three pulverized coal fired electricity supply chains with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS) on a cradle to grave basis. The chain with CCS comprises post-combustion CO₂ capture with monoethanolamine, compression, transport by pipeline and storage in a geological reservoir. The two reference chains represent sub-critical and state-of-the-art ultra supercritical pulverized coal fired electricity generation. For the three chains we have constructed a detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) balance, and disclosed environmental trade-offs and co-benefits due to CO₂ capture, transport and storage. Results show that, due to CCS, the GHG emissions per kWh are reduced substantially to 243 g/kWh. This is a reduction of 78 and 71% compared to the sub-critical and state-of-the-art power plant, respectively. The removal of CO₂ is partially offset by increased GHG emissions in up- and downstream processes, to a small extent (0.7 g/kWh) caused by the CCS infrastructure. An environmental co-benefit is expected following from the deeper reduction of hydrogen fluoride and hydrogen chloride emissions. Most notable environmental trade-offs are the increase in human toxicity, ozone layer depletion and fresh water ecotoxicity potential for which the CCS chain is outperformed by both other chains. The state-of-the-art power plant without CCS also shows a better score for the eutrophication, acidification and photochemical oxidation potential despite the deeper reduction of SO_x and NO_x in the CCS power plant. These reductions are offset by increased emissions in the life cycle due to the energy penalty and a factor five increase in NH₃ emissions.     

Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change

Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987–1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO₂ emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.

     

Economic evaluation of the geological storage of CO2 considering the scale of economy

CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology is expected to play an important role in the efforts directed toward long-term CO₂ emission reduction. This paper analyzes the cost of the geological storage of CO₂ in Japan in order to consider future research, development and deployment (RD&D); these would be based on the information of the obtained cost structure. According to the analysis results, the costs, particularly those of the transportation by pipeline and of CO₂ injection, strongly depend on the scale of the facilities. Therefore, the distance of the transportation of CO₂ should be minimized in the case of small-scale storage, particularly in Japan. In addition, the potential injection rate per well is another key factor for the injection cost. Based on the analyzed cost, the injection cost of the geological storage of CO₂ in Japan for individual storage sites is estimated, and the cost–potential curve is obtained. A mixed-integer programming model has been developed to take into account these characteristics of the CCS technology and its adverse effects arising from the scale of economy with regard to the transportation and injection cost for the geological storage of CO₂. The model is designed to evaluate CCS and other CO₂ mitigation technologies in the energy systems of Japan. With all these adverse effects due to the scale of economy, the geological storage of CO₂ will be one of the important options for CO₂ emission reduction in Japan.     

The value of post-combustion carbon dioxide capture and storage technologies in a world with uncertain greenhouse gas emissions constraints

By analyzing how the largest CO₂ emitting electricity-generating region in the United States, the East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement (ECAR), responds to hypothetical constraints on greenhouse gas emissions, the authors demonstrate that there is an enduring role for post-combustion CO₂ capture technologies. The utilization of pulverized coal generation with carbon dioxide capture and storage (PC + CCS) technologies is particularly significant in a world where there is uncertainty about the future evolution of climate policy and in particular uncertainty about the rate at which the climate policy will become more stringent. The paper's analysis shows that within this one large, heavily coal-dominated electricity-generating region, as much as 20–40 GW of PC + CCS could be operating before the middle of this century. Depending upon the state of PC + CCS technology development and the evolution of future climate policy, the analysis shows that these CCS systems could be mated to either pre-existing PC units or PC units that are currently under construction, announced and planned units, as well as PC units that could continue to be built for a number of decades even in the face of a climate policy. In nearly all the cases analyzed here, these PC + CCS generation units are in addition to a much larger deployment of CCS-enabled coal-fueled integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plants. The analysis presented here shows that the combined deployment of PC + CCS and IGCC + CCS units within this one region of the U.S. could result in the potential capture and storage of between 3.2 and 4.9 Gt of CO₂ before the middle of this century in the region's deep geologic storage formations.     

The Climate Value of Cycling

The reduction of CO₂ emissions constitutes one of the largest challenges of the current era. Sustainable transportation, and especially cycling, can contribute to the mitigation of CO₂ emissions since cycling possesses an intrinsic zero‐emission value. Few studies have been conducted that appraise the CO₂ reduction potential of cycling. Opportunity costs enable the estimation of avoided CO₂ emissions resulting from bicycle trips. The methodology developed in this research allows the attribution of a climate value to cycling by substituting bicycle trips with their most likely alternative transportation modes and calculating the resulting additional CO₂ emissions. The methodology uses data on the current modal shares of cycling mobility, the competition of cycling with other transportation modes, and CO₂ emission factors to calculate the climate value of cycling. When it is assumed that the avoided CO₂ emissions of cycling mobility could be traded on financial carbon markets, the climate value of cycling represents a monetary value. Application of the methodology to the case of Bogotá, Colombia — a city with a current bicycle modal share of 3.3% on a total of 10 million daily trips — results in a climate value of cycling of 55,115 tons of CO₂ per year, corresponding to an economic value of between 1 and 7 million US dollars when traded on the carbon market.     

Use of experience curves to estimate the future cost of power plants with CO2 capture

Given the dominance of power plant emissions of greenhouse gases, and the growing worldwide interest in CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) as a potential climate change mitigation option, the expected future cost of power plants with CO₂ capture is of significant interest. Reductions in the cost of technologies as a result of learning-by-doing, R&D investments and other factors have been observed over many decades. This study uses historical experience curves as the basis for estimating future cost trends for four types of electric power plants equipped with CO₂ capture systems: pulverized coal (PC) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with post-combustion CO₂ capture; coal-based integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants with pre-combustion capture; and coal-fired oxyfuel combustion for new PC plants. We first assess the rates of cost reductions achieved by other energy and environmental process technologies in the past. Then, by analogy with leading capture plant designs, we estimate future cost reductions that might be achieved by power plants employing CO₂ capture. Effects of uncertainties in key parameters on projected cost reductions also are evaluated via sensitivity analysis.     

The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

Greenhouse gas Emissions projections and mitigation options for the Czech Republic, 1990–2010

The models used to assess greenhouse gas mitigation options for the Czech Republic are discussed and compared with respect to their capabilities and ease of use. The input data and preliminary results are described. According to the projections, Czech CO₂ emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2010. Assessment of several mitigation options shows that a 6% reduction in CO₂ emissions can be achieved using cost-effective technologies. Key areas for mitigation measures are fuel switching from brown coal to natural gas through replacement of boilers, efficiency improvements in household heating, and use of compact fluorescent lamps.     

Pathways towards large-scale implementation of CO2 capture and storage: A case study for the Netherlands

We sketch four possible pathways how carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) (r)evolution may occur in the Netherlands, after which the implications in terms of CO₂ stored and avoided, costs and infrastructural requirements are quantified. CCS may play a significant role in decarbonising the Dutch energy and industrial sector, which currently emits nearly 100 Mt CO₂/year. We found that 15 Mt CO₂ could be avoided annually by 2020, provided some of the larger gas fields that become available the coming decade could be used for CO₂ storage. Halfway this century, the mitigation potential of CCS in the power sector, industry and transport fuel production is estimated at maximally 80–110 Mt CO₂/year, of which 60–80 Mt CO₂/year may be avoided at costs between 15 and 40 €/t CO₂, including transport and storage. Avoiding 30–60 Mt CO₂/year by means of CCS is considered realistic given the storage potential represented by Dutch gas fields, although it requires planning to assure that domestic storage capacity could be used for CO₂ storage. In an aggressive climate policy, avoiding another 50 Mt CO₂/year may be possible provided that nearly all capture opportunities that occur are taken. Storing such large amounts of CO₂ would only be possible if the Groningen gas field or large reservoirs in the British or Norwegian part of the North Sea will become available.     

Greenhouse gas Emissions projections and mitigation options for the Czech Republic, 1990–2010

The models used to assess greenhouse gas mitigation options for the Czech Republic are discussed and compared with respect to their capabilities and ease of use. The input data and preliminary results are described. According to the projections, Czech CO₂ emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2010. Assessment of several mitigation options shows that a 6% reduction in CO₂ emissions can be achieved using cost-effective technologies. Key areas for mitigation measures are fuel switching from brown coal to natural gas through replacement of boilers, efficiency improvements in household heating, and use of compact fluorescent lamps.

     

Cocoa Intensification Scenarios and Their Predicted Impact on CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions,Biodiversity Conservation,and Rural Livelihoods in the Guinea Rain Forest of West Africa

The Guinean rain forest (GRF) of West Africa, identified over 20 years ago as a global biodiversity hotspot, had reduced to 113,000 km² at the start of the new millennium which was 18% of its original area. The principal driver of this environmental change has been the expansion of extensive smallholder agriculture. From 1988 to 2007, the area harvested in the GRF by smallholders of cocoa, cassava, and oil palm increased by 68,000 km². Field results suggest a high potential for significantly increasing crop yields through increased application of seed-fertilizer technologies. Analyzing land-use change scenarios, it was estimated that had intensified cocoa technology, already developed in the 1960s, been pursued in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon that over 21,000 km² of deforestation and forest degradation could have been avoided along with the emission of nearly 1.4 billion t of CO₂. Addressing the low productivity of agriculture in the GRF should be one of the principal objectives of REDD climate mitigation programs.