Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin,NE-Spain

The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable.     

The impact of climate change on the benefit of a rain barrel sharing network

The assessment of the impact of climate change depends not only on quantitative changes in precipitation but also system characteristics that can be changed and enhanced. This study investigated the effect of building the shared network of a rainwater harvesting system as an adaptation to climate change scenarios. The performance of a rain barrel network under three climate change scenarios and three global circulation models (GCM) is examined. A sample community composed of four prospective users with individual storage is tested with various forms of shared connections. Most importantly, the results show that the benefit from shared rain barrels greatly increases under the climate change conditions compared with the historical rainfall data. Especially, for high reliabilities, the results indicate that the benefit of a rain barrel network increases under future climate change scenarios, whereas it does not show apparent improvement for low reliabilities. However, the performance of a rain barrel network is highly dependent on location and climate change scenarios. In contrast, the GCM does not considerably affect the performance of the shared network. The results of this study highlight the needs to establish sharing networks of rainwater harvesting systems under the climate change conditions, which would significantly increase the benefit of the entire community.     

An integrated assessment model of carbon sequestration benefits: a case study of Liping county, China

This research attempts to model the complexity of planting trees to increase China's CO(2) sequestration potential by using a GIS-based integrated assessment (IA) approach. We use the IA model to assess the impact of China's Grain for Green reforestation and afforestation program on farmer and state incomes as well as CO(2) sequestration in Liping County, Guizhou Province. The IA model consists of five sub-models for carbon sequestration, crop income, timber income, Grain for Green, and carbon credits. It also includes a complementary qualitative module for assessing program impacts by gender and ethnicity. Using four scenarios with various assumptions about types of trees planted, crop incomes by township, CO(2) credit prices, state subsidies, methods for estimating carbon sequestered, and harvesting of trees, we find great variation in the impact of the Grain for Green program on incomes and on carbon sequestered over a 48 year period at both the county and township levels.     

The comparison of a revised Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods in environmental impact assessment,a case study: The construction of Al‐A'amiriya residential complex,Baghdad, Iraq

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an efficient method to recognize and alleviate the unfavorable and inevitable impacts of human activity on the environment. The EIA is dependent on expert opinions, which can be influenced by personal experience and knowledge. To evaluate this influence, we carried out EIA of 6,000 residential apartment units of Al‐A'amiriya, Baghdad, Iraq, using a revised Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods. The matrix results reflected the direct opinions of experts. The fuzzy method was developed according to the principles of expert comments. In the matrix method, the environmental impacts of each activity were evaluated by scores between −5 (very bad) to 5 (very good). The inputs to the fuzzy method were intensity and weather stability. The fuzzy estimation of the environmental impact was composed of a group of three values; P1 as the intensity, P2 as the extent, and P3 as the persistence. We gathered the expert opinions and used the Analytical Hierarchical Process to determine the weighting coefficient of each fuzzy anticipation. The matrix method was dependent on the expert opinions. The mean values of the matrix and P‐values in each column and row scores depict the impacts of a project on the environmental aspects and each element of construction on the environment. The comparison of the results indicated an average difference of 30% between the Leopold matrix and fuzzy methods. In regard to the availability and sufficiency of data, the difference was around 10%.     

Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies

Climate change can increase societies’ propensity to conflict by changes in socio-structural conditions (e.g., resource scarcity, migration). We propose an additional, subtle, and general effect of climate change threat via increases in authoritarian attitudes. Three studies in Germany and the UK support this suggestion. Reminding participants of the adverse consequences climate change may have for their country increased the derogation of societal groups that may threaten the collective (e.g., criminals) as well as general authoritarian attitudes. Salient climate change threats also led to system justification and approval of system supporting groups (e.g., judges) in those people who were highly identified with their nation. We discuss the implications of these findings for the explanation of authoritarian attitudes and the question of how societies may cope with the subtle social psychological effects of climate change.     

Risk assessment for atmospheric environmental management: a case study in the Hunter Region of New South Wales,Australia

The theoretical framework of a risk assessment scheme is applied to air quality assessment in a developing region in Australia, the Hunter Valley in the state of New South Wales. It is found that the application of such a scheme high-lights a number of inadequacies in the air quality management. New modeling methodologies are found to be necessary to assess some air quality impacts, as existing knowledge is inadequate. The importance of extensive data bases is underlined as is the need for social surveys to supplement air pollution monitoring when gauging aesthetic effects of air pollutants.A visiting fellow on leave from the School of Australian Environmental Studies, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.     

The risk/no-risk rhetoric of environmental impact assessments (EIA): the case of offshore wind farms in Sweden

Risk is a key topic in the communication between developers of infrastructure projects, permit-granting authorities, and civil society. The nature of risk communication is contested among academics, however. Whereas some scholars conceive of risk communication as a matter of effectively communicating expert knowledge on factual matters to the public, others emphasise the role of symbolic construction and rhetoric. This article analyses how wind farm developers rhetorically construct risks in relation to the environmental impact assessment (EIA) for a large offshore wind farm project. Our analysis is inspired by the New Rhetoric, the theory of argumentation developed by Perelman and Olbrechts-Tyteca (Traité de l'argumentation – la nouvelle rhétorique, Brussels: Éditions des presses de l'université de Bruxelles, 1958). We suggest that the EIA adopt a dual argumentative strategy. The report associates numerous risks with the project by identifying and cataloguing them; however, these risks are also disconnected from the project by being described as nonexistent, negligible, or manageable. We discuss some implications of considering EIAs, not as accounts of reality, but as loci of production for this reality.     

Climate,land, energy and water (CLEW) interlinkages in Burkina Faso: An analysis of agricultural intensification and bioenergy production

This paper discusses climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) interactions in Burkina Faso. It shows that integrated assessments of resource use at the national level can provide important insights and benefits, especially for a resource constrained least developed country. Agricultural policy is shown to have strong implications for energy use, whereas energy policies are found to be strongly interrelated with water constraints. Without an integrated and coordinated approach, strategy and policy formulation efforts to increase energy, food and water security could become both incoherent and counter‐productive.     

Field Validation of a Conservation Network on the Eastern Shore of Maryland,USA, Using Breeding Birds as Bio-Indicators

Maryland’s Green Infrastructure (GI) is a network of large, intact natural areas (hubs), interconnected by linear swaths of riparian or upland vegetation (corridors). The GI serves significant ecological functions and provides the bulk of the state’s natural support system. This study examined whether the GI as mapped does, in fact, identify Maryland’s most ecologically valuable forested lands, using forest interior dwelling birds (hereafter called “forest birds”) as bio-indicators. We conducted bird point counts within forest both inside and outside of hubs on Maryland’s Eastern Shore. We also collected a wide variety of habitat data. We found that both the condition of a forest and its surrounding landscape influenced the bird communities. On average, forest bird richness was significantly higher within hubs; furthermore, almost all sites with at least five forest bird species present were in hubs. Forest bird richness and abundance were highest in undisturbed, mature broadleaf forest with wetlands and streams nearby. We detected a significant relationship between forest bird richness and the ecological score of a finer-scale landscape assessment, focused on “cells” of about 0.1 ha in size. This field study also validated the Rapid Field Assessment (RFA) protocol developed in 2001 to assess, on the ground, the relative condition of individual sites or properties within the GI. Forest bird richness and abundance were positively correlated with the RFA community scores. Our results underscore the importance of maintaining regional biological diversity by retaining large blocks of forest, especially mature forest containing streams and wetlands.     

AHP based life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) framework: a case study of six storey wood frame and concrete frame buildings in Vancouver

Construction and building industry is in dire need for developing sustainability assessment frameworks that can evaluate and integrate related environmental and socioeconomic impacts. This paper discusses an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based sustainability evaluation framework for mid-rise residential buildings based on a broad range of environmental and socioeconomic criteria. A cradle to grave life cycle assessment technique was applied to identify, classify, and assess triple bottom line (TBL) sustainability performance indicators of buildings. Then, the AHP was applied to aggregate the impacts into a unified sustainability index. The framework is demonstrated through a case study to investigate two six storey structural systems (i.e. concrete and wood) in Vancouver, Canada. The results of this paper show that the environmental performance of a building in Canada, even in regions with milder weather such as Vancouver, is highly dependent on service life energy, rather than structural materials.     

Resource scarcity,energy use and environmental impact: A case study of the New Bedford,Massachusetts, USA,fisheries

The commercial fishing fleet in New Bedford, Massachusetts, USA, harvests seafood on George’s Bank, home of one of the nation’s most productive fisheries. We calculated the energy return on investment (EROI) and carbon intensity of protein harvest in the New Bedford fisheries from 1968 to 1988. EROI is the ratio of the energy content of the edible fish protein harvested to the quantity of fossil fuel energy used directly in the harvesting process. Carbon intensity is the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO₂) released (from the burning of fossil fuels) per calorie of edible fish protein harvested. The results show that the EROI of protein harvest declined from 0.18 to 0.028 from 1968 to 1988, indicating that the energy used to harvest seafood increased from about 6 to 36 kcal of fuel for each kilocalorie of protein harvested. The quantity of CO₂ released per calorie of edible fish protein is a linear function of energy use and therefore increased in a similar manner. During this period there was a large increase in fishing effort (caused by the increase in the real price of seafood products, favorable tax treatment for new vessel construction, and low interest loans from the government), and a decline in several important species of fish. The results suggest that fishing pressure could be managed effectively by the regulation of fuel use by the fleet. Despite the increase in the price of many seafood products, fishermen absorbed many of the costs of increasing scarcity in the form of longer working hours and fewer men per vessel.     

Social, economic, and ecological impacts of the "Grain for Green" project in China: a preliminary case in Zhangye, Northwest China

This paper provides applications of the integrated assessment (IA) approach in a case study in the Heihe River Basin of Northwest China. Some socio-economic and ecological impact results of forestry land use scenarios are presented in the paper. While seven types of land use scenarios for carbon sequestration purposes were considered for the IA applications, this paper mainly presents impacts of land use scenarios within the Grain for Green (GFG) category [see Yin et al., this volume]. China's national Grain for Green Project was implemented in order to protect and improve ecosystems, while allowing an evolution of agricultural management practices compatible with raising peasants' incomes. Zhangye Prefecture, located in the Heihe River Basin of an arid area in Northwest China, was chosen as the investigation site of the IA case study. Based on fundamental orientation theory, the social sustainability impacts of GFG land use options were assessed. Between 2002 and 2004, the GFG project brought US$23.56 million yuan in net income to the prefecture's peasants. Project implementation resulted in a 1.71 Gg increase in net primary productivity (NPP), as well as a 44.36 Gg rise in net ecosystem productivity (NEP). This suggested that, in Zhangye Prefecture, the Grain for Green Project could enhance the sustainability and stability of the local society, increase peasants' net income, as well as protect and remediate local ecosystems.     

Policy,Institutional and Market Barriers to the Implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) in China

China is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the world, with potentially about two thirds of total Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) for Asia on the world carbon market (). Since 68% of its primary energy is from coal, China's average energy intensity is 7.5 times higher than the EU and 4.3 times higher than the US (EU, 2003 The European Union on-line. (2003). (http://europa.eu.int/index_ns_en.htm accessed Oct 2003  [Google Scholar]). Therefore, introducing advanced clean technologies and management to China represents opportunities for Annex I countries to obtain low-cost CERs through CDM projects, and access to one of the largest potential energy conservation markets in the world.

CDM can provide a win-win solution for both China and Annex I countries, and the Chinese government considers that the introduction of CDM projects can bring advanced energy technologies and foreign investment to China, thereby helping China's sustainable economy and generating CERs. As energy efficiency is generally low and carbon intensity is high in both China's energy supply and demand sectors, numerous options exist for cost-effective energy conservation and GHG mitigation with CDM.

This paper reviews current Chinese policies and administrative and institutional settings for CDM cooperation, and discusses existing policy, institutional and other barriers in the energy market by drawing on observations and experience from previous initiatives such as Cleaner Production and energy efficiency. Some options to remove these barriers are addressed. In order to make CDM projects feasible, China's government needs to promote awareness, streamline administrative systems, and be more active in building a competitive edge in the world carbon market.     

Detecting deforestation with a spectral change detection approach using multitemporal Landsat data: a case study of Kinabalu Park, Sabah, Malaysia

Tropical deforestation is occurring at an alarming rate, threatening the ecological integrity of protected areas. This makes it vital to regularly assess protected areas to confirm the efficacy of measures that protect that area from clearing. Satellite remote sensing offers a systematic and objective means for detecting and monitoring deforestation. This paper examines a spectral change approach to detect deforestation using pattern decomposition (PD) coefficients from multitemporal Landsat data. Our results show that the PD coefficients for soil and vegetation can be used to detect deforestation using change vector analysis (CVA). CVA analysis demonstrates that deforestation in the Kinabalu area, Sabah, Malaysia has significantly slowed from 1.2% in period 1 (1973 and 1991) to 0.1% in period 2 (1991 and 1996). A comparison of deforestation both inside and outside Kinabalu Park has highlighted the effectiveness of the park in protecting the tropical forest against clearing. However, the park is still facing pressure from the area immediately surrounding the park (the 1km buffer zone) where the deforestation rate has remained unchanged.     

秦皇岛城市旅游CTIS形象设计研究

在日趋激烈的国际城市旅游竞争中,若想取得一席之地,旅游城市需要构建系统的城市形象识别系统,即CTIS。城市CTIS系统需要在明确的市场定位基础上,通过构建旅游城市核心理念识别系统、行为识别系统及视觉识别系统实现。在对秦皇岛旅游市场进行STP(市场细分—目标市场选择—市场定位)分析的基础上,提出秦皇岛建设"健康之都"的城市定位,并且构建了相关城市CTIS系统内容。     

An economic and environmental assessment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) power plants: a case study for the City of Kiel

In the not too distant future several power plants throughout Europe will have to be replaced and the decision has to be made whether to build coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). In a study for the city of Kiel in northern Germany only an 800 MW coal power plant reaches a required minimum for rentability. This study looks at an additional economic and environmental evaluation of a coal plant with CCS. We find that in two out of three carbon and energy price scenarios integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants with CCS have the greatest rentability. Pulverised coal (PC) plants with CCS can only compete with other options under very favourable assumptions. Life-cycle emissions from CCS are less than 70% of a coal plant – compared with at least more than 80% when only considering direct emissions from plants. However, life-cycle emissions are lower than in any other assessed option.     

Towards greening a university campus: The case of the University of Maribor, Slovenia

The environmental performance of the University of Maribor (Engineering Campus) has been assessed on a life cycle basis. The following activities have been considered in the study: the use and operation of lecture theatres (construction and maintenance, heating, lighting and water consumption) and day-to-day consumption of sundries (paper and plastic bottles). The results indicate that the heating and construction of buildings are the ‘hot spots’ in the system, for most environmental impacts. Different waste management options for the plastic and paper, including recycling, incineration and landfill, have also been compared for environmental impacts and economic costs. The option combining 70% recycling, 29% incineration and 1% landfill has been found to be most economically and environmentally sustainable.     

Prioritisation of farm scale remediation efforts for reducing losses of nutrients and faecal indicator organisms to waterways: a case study of New Zealand dairy farming

The international competitiveness of the New Zealand (NZ) dairy industry is built on low cost clover-based systems and a favourable temperate climate that enables cows to graze pastures mostly all year round. Whilst this grazed pasture farming system is very efficient at producing milk, it has also been identified as a significant source of nutrients (N and P) and faecal bacteria which have contributed to water quality degradation in some rivers and lakes. In response to these concerns, a tool-box of mitigation measures that farmers can apply on farm to reduce environmental emissions has been developed. Here we report the potential reduction in nutrient losses and costs to farm businesses arising from the implementation of individual best management practices (BMPs) within this tool-box. Modelling analysis was carried out for a range of BMPs targeting pollutant source reduction on case-study dairy farms, located in four contrasting catchments. Due to the contrasting physical resources and management systems present in the four dairy catchments evaluated, the effectiveness and costs of BMPs varied. Farm managements that optimised soil Olsen P levels or used nitrification inhibitors were observed to result in win-win outcomes whereby nutrient losses were consistently reduced and farm profitability was increased in three of the four case study farming systems. Other BMPs generally reduced nutrient and faecal bacteria losses but at a small cost to the farm business. Our analysis indicates that there are a range of technological measures that can deliver substantial reductions in nutrient losses to waterways from dairy farms, whilst not increasing or even reducing other environmental impacts (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions and energy use). Their implementation will first require clearly defined environmental goals for the catchment/water body that is to be protected. Secondly, given that the major sources of water pollutants often differed between catchments, it is important that BMPs are matched to the physical resources and management systems of the existing farm businesses.     

The valuation of historical sites: a case study of Valdivia,Chile

The economic valuation of cultural heritage is an area of increasing interest and an important research topic in the emerging field of cultural economics. Many services and values associated with cultural heritage are not traded in markets, and their estimation requires methods developed for the valuation of non-market goods, such as those used in environmental economics. This paper applies the contingent valuation method with double dichotomous choice to estimate the value of historical sites in the city of Valdivia, Chile. The valuation exercise was implemented by designing a hypothetical guided walking tour to a cluster of historical sites in the city centre, and surveying tourists visiting the city during the summer of 2004. Parametric and non-parametric statistical methods were used to estimate the survival distribution and the mean and median estimates of the willingness-to-pay (WTP). The study emphasizes the importance of explicitly treating heterogeneous preferences and the sensitivity of the survival distribution to the estimation methods used.     

The role of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the negotiation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was signed by some 153 countries at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, represented a singular triumph for the geographically dispersed group of island states and low-lying coastal developing countries, located in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as in the Caribbean, South China and Mediterranean Seas, and known as the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This article focuses on the goals of AOSIS during the negotiations leading up to the adoption of the UNFCCC. For the first time in the history of the United Nations, a group of small states, hitherto relegated to the sidelines, was able to develop a specific negotiating agenda addressing areas which are of overriding concern to them and succeeded in having those concerns incorporated in a legally binding Convention of historic importance. As this article reveals, AOSIS set itself 12 negotiating goals during the negotiating rounds leading up to the UNFCCC, and 10 of these 12 goals were realized. Nevertheless, AOSIS, whose member states are most vulnerable to the possible adverse effects of climate change, was particularly concerned about those provisions of the UNFCCC that were either watered-down significantly, made largely meaningless or excluded altogether. These include: the absence of definite targets or specific timetables for the significant reduction of carbon dioxide by the industrialized countries of the North; the lack of permanent and clear financing arrangements in particular the lack of definitive financial provisions for adaptive response measures to the adverse impacts of climate change such as sea-level rise; and the absence of a specific provision for the implementation of coastal zone management schemes for those countries most vulnerable to sea-level rise. As the UNFCCC moves into the implementation phase, AOSIS should and must build on its past success. To do so, it will need to develop clearly defined initiatives aimed at strengthening the commitments for financing and insurance, and to seek inclusion of a provision to develop and finance coastal zone management schemes for the most vulnerable small states. While the article covers the AOSIS negotiating period up to and including the Earth Summit in June 1992, we nevertheless postulate some possible objectives which the AOSIS group might wish to consider in what is sure to be an intensive post-Earth Summit phase of the UNFCCC, leading up to the first Conference of the Parties of that Convention.