What happens to the state in conflict?: political analysis as a tool for planning humanitarian assistance

It is now part of received wisdom that humanitarian assistance in conflict and post-conflict situations may be ineffective or even counterproductive in the absence of an informed understanding of the broader political context in which so-called 'complex political emergencies' (CPEs) occur. Though recognising that specific cases have to be understood in their own terms, this article offers a framework for incorporating political analysis in policy design. It is based on a programme of research on a number of countries in Africa and Asia over the last four years. It argues that the starting-point should be an analysis of crises of authority within contemporary nation-states which convert conflict (a feature of all political systems) into violent conflict; of how such conflict may in turn generate more problems for, or even destroy, the state; of the deep-rooted political, institutional and developmental legacies of political violence; and of the difficulties that complicate the restoration of legitimate and effective systems of governance after the 'termination' of conflict. It then lists a series of questions which such an analysis would need to ask--less in order to provide a comprehensive check-list than to uncover underlying political processes and links. It is hoped these may be used not only to understand the political dynamics of emergencies, but also to identify what kinds of policy action should and should not be given priority by practitioners.     

Interrupting the balance: reconsidering the complexities of conflict in South Sudan

By the start of 2014, violent conflict had erupted across much of South Sudan following initial violence in Juba on 15 December 2013. The speed with which the fighting has spread raises questions regarding the impact of national‐level politics on violence at the local level. This article develops a framework in which violent conflict can be comprehended as a response to the interruption of the negotiation of the balance of power between groups; the negotiation is interrupted when that balance tips in favour of one group, such as through changes in the national political market or government reforms. The article provides two cases studies of attempts to strengthen the state that inadvertently interrupted local power relations between groups. In response, the groups engaged in violent conflict to reinstate a balance of power. Both examples involve conflict among Dinka groups from 2005 to 2008.     

The Symphony of the Damned: Racial Discourse, Complex Political Emergencies and Humanitarian Aid

This paper concerns the manner in which the West is responding to protracted political crises beyond its borders. It examines the conceptual world-view that aid agencies bring to complex emergencies and which shapes action. The paper provides an analysis of developmentalism. That is, the currently dominant idea of development which is an adapted form of multiculturalism. It is based on the empowerment of cultural differences and the relativisation of progress. As a variant of multiculturalism, developmentalism is part of Western racial discourse. In terms of understanding conflict, it establishes a mirror-image relationship with new rascist ideas premised on cultural pluralism inevitably leading to social breakdown, violence and anarchy. To the contrary, with its functional view of social harmony, libertine developmentalism claims that even unresolved political crisis constitutes a development opportunity.
Developmentalism, like culturalism generally, is incapable of analysing power. It therefore cannot understand the effects and significance of its own organisational forms. Moreover, since the absence of power translates into operational neutrality in a war zone, it is also unable to analyse the nature of new political formations emerging in the global periphery. That is, the so-called weak or failed states, warlords and so on. This functional ignorance has allowed a widespread incorporation of humanitarian aid into the fabric of political violence. Developmentalism is an essential underpinning for the growing organisational accommodation to ongoing conflict and eroding standards of justice and accountability.     

Livelihoods,power, and food insecurity: adaptation of social capital portfolios in protracted crises—case study Burundi

The failure of food security and livelihood interventions to adapt to conflict settings remains a key challenge in humanitarian responses to protracted crises. This paper proposes a social capital analysis to address this policy gap, adding a political economy dimension on food security and conflict to the actor‐based livelihood framework. A case study of three hillsides in north Burundi provides an ethnographic basis for this hypothesis. While relying on a theoretical framework in which different combinations of social capital (bonding, bridging, and linking) account for a diverse range of outcomes, the findings offer empirical insights into how social capital portfolios adapt to a protracted crisis. It is argued that these social capital adaptations have the effect of changing livelihood policies, institutions, and processes (PIPs), and clarify the impact of the distribution of power and powerlessness on food security issues. In addition, they represent a solid way of integrating political economy concerns into the livelihood framework.     

Rehabilitation: strategic, proactive, flexible, risky?

Rehabilitation after armed conflict is a direct intellectual descendant of thinking about rehabilitation after natural calamity. It is related, generally, to poverty reduction and, operationally, to associated action at the micro level. This history has limited its strategic conceptualisation and, in particular, its links with reconciliation and state re-legitimation and also with macro-economic stabilisation and renewed growth. In post-war--or more generally, a lull in conflict with the potential to become permanent--a country's rapid, focused, prioritised action within a strategic framework is urgent. It is not risk-free for political and natural disasters as well as for those with economic and social bases. Flexibility, learning from initial experience and asking intended household beneficiaries about their needs in advance can reduce risk as can pre-positioning of contingency or standby resources to avert post-war calamities (for example, drought, flood) and catastrophes (renewed violence) from delaying and discrediting rehabilitation efforts.     

Reducing post-disaster conflict: a cross-cultural test of four hypotheses using archaeological data

Four hypotheses concerning the relationship between climate-related disasters and conflict are tested using archaeological data in a controlled cross-cultural comparison. The four hypotheses are (1) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because local economic conditions deprive polities of tax revenue so that they can no longer suppress conflict; (2) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because existing social inequalities lead to conflicts over differential access to resources; (3) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because migration forces population into condensed settlements ripe for conflict; and (4) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters in polities where leaders tightly control access to political authority because leaders may use violence to maintain control over the resources they use to secure support from other elites. Only the fourth hypothesis is supported. It is argued that understanding pre-disaster political strategies is key to understanding post-disaster conflict.     

Burma: The Political Economy of Violence

Protracted conflict and violence in Burma have been conducive to the growth of the opium industry, Burma's single financial success in recent years of economic crisis and authoritarian rule. This in turn has fed violence and subsequent humanitarian crisis. This paper argues that the underlying political economy of the conflict has been overlooked, while conflict itself has been treated as a peripheral factor in questions of 'development', and further that the opium dynamic is a vital factor in continued violence and vulnerability for non-combatants in the region. A political economy approach, identifying the beneficiaries of violence, will offer a more holistic and effective approach to the protracted crisis.     

The rationality of resistance: alternatives for engagement in complex emergencies

The different conceptualisations of conflict in the complex emergency literature have profound implications on the perception of the agency of different groups and the prospects for conflict management. While much recent analysis has focused on the rational political and economic functions of violence, relatively little analysis has focused on why the majority of people chose not to resort to violence. Using Foucault's analysis of power relations, a new framework for conflict analysis is proposed which includes non-violent resistance as well as violence as a means of domination. Non-violent resistance is explored as a rational, highly adaptable response to acts of domination. A comprehensive understanding of conflict must recognise local forms of resistance and identify the barriers and opportunities for the engagement of the international humanitarian community with these groups. This engagement can be used to foster capacities for the creation of legitimate, inclusive, non-violent political and economic processes in the attempt to provide alternatives for everyone in the conflict. If the purpose of the study of complex emergencies is to understand the nature of various conflicts and, based on that understanding, make recommendations for possible routes to conflict management, the analysis of local resistance and efforts to foster it must become a major aspect of the research agenda.     

Famine, gold and guns: the suri of southwestern ethiopia, 1985-91

Over the past few years, the Suri have lived through a deep ecological and social crisis without substantial external aid from either the Ethiopian government or international aid agencies. They have experienced drought, cattle disease and an increasing level of violent conflict with their neighbours, leading to the severe disruption of their traditional agro-pastoral subsistence system and settlement pattern. Through migration, the exploitation of gold resources and investment in automatic weapons, however, they have managed virtually a full recovery of their economy and society.     

Violence and complex humanitarian emergencies: implications for livelihoods models

This paper explores the nature of the violence that characterises complex humanitarian emergencies and the related implications for modelling livelihoods systems. While noting the importance of livelihoods approaches in complex humanitarian emergencies, it deliberates the limitations of sustainable livelihoods frameworks when applied in environments marked by protracted instability. Adaptations to the model are discussed, with a particular focus on the relationships among violence, assets and liabilities within livelihoods systems. Political economy of violence theories intimate that the assets on which livelihoods systems are constructed in peaceful times may instead become life-and livelihood-threatening liabilities in periods of conflict. Adaptations to livelihood systems in violent settings require that analysts consider violence from policy, institutional and process perspectives. It is suggested that vulnerability should be re-conceptualised as endogenous to livelihoods systems in violent settings. Building on the work of others, a livelihoods model adapted for complex humanitarian emergencies is presented.     

Embedded wisdom or rooted problems? Aid workers' perspectives on local social and political infrastructure in post‐tsunami Aceh

This paper analyses the role of local social, cultural, and political institutions in post‐disaster reconstruction projects. It contends that such institutions are important considerations within community‐driven reconstruction initiatives, but are often viewed with ambivalence by external aid organisations. This paper draws upon in‐depth qualitative interviews with aid workers involved in the post‐tsunami reconstruction in Aceh, Indonesia, to establish: (i) what roles community institutions were suited to play in the reconstruction; (ii) what were the limitations of community institutions when engaging with external aid agencies; (iii) how did external aid agencies engage with local community institutions; and (iv) how did external aid agencies perceive community institutions.     

Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens

This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures (economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the 'sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. The analysis illustrates processes that externalise recovery costs, alter the relationship between physical and socio-economic vulnerability and shift the vulnerability load from macro structures to individual agencies or vice versa. It is based on two methodological approaches: the division of vulnerability into three constituent components (exposure, resistance and resilience); and the conceptual split between producers and carriers of vulnerability.     

Between war and peace: humanitarian assistance in violent urban settings

Cities are fast becoming new territories of violence. 1 The humanitarian consequences of many criminally violent urban settings are comparable to those of more traditional wars, yet despite the intensity of the needs, humanitarian aid to such settings is limited. The way in which humanitarian needs are typically defined, fails to address the problems of these contexts, the suffering they produce and the populations affected. Distinctions between formal armed conflicts, regulated by international humanitarian law, and other violent settings, as well as those between emergency and developmental assistance, can lead to the neglect of populations in distress. It can take a lot of time and effort to access vulnerable communities and implement programmes in urban settings, but experience shows that it is possible to provide humanitarian assistance with a significant focus on the direct and indirect health consequences of violence outside a traditional conflict setting. This paper considers the situation of Port‐au‐Prince (Haiti), Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) and Guatemala City (Guatemala).     

Providing health services during a civil war: the experience of a garrison town in South Sudan

The impact of conflict, particularly conflict arising during civil wars, on the provision of healthcare is a subject that has not been widely considered in conflict‐related research. Combatants often target health services to weaken or to defeat the enemy, while attempts to maintain or improve health systems also can comprise part of counter‐insurgency ‘hearts‐and‐minds’ strategies. This paper describes the dynamics associated with the provision of health services in Malakal, an important garrison town in South Sudan, during the second Sudanese civil war (1983–2005). Drawing on the concepts of opportunity hoarding and exploitation, it explores the social and political dynamics of service provision in and around the town during the war. These concepts provide a useful lens with which to understand better how health services are affected by conflict, while the empirical case study presented in the paper illustrates dynamics that may be repeated in other contexts. The concepts and case study set out in this paper should prove useful to healthcare providers working in conflict zones, including humanitarian aid agencies and their employees, increasing their understanding of the social and political dynamics that they are likely to face during future conflict‐related complex emergencies.     

Educational hazards? The politics of disaster risk education in Rio de Janeiro

Disaster education outcomes are highly dependent on the political context of that education. Based on a rich, in‐depth case study of the creation of community monitors in a landslide and flood‐prone city in southeast Brazil, this paper demonstrates how developmental and political environments add much additional nuance to existing theories of behaviourist and transformative education for disaster preparedness and mitigation. Beyond identifying the benefits of education, it argues that disaster risk reduction outcomes are reliant on governance frameworks that alter over time. The study reveals the political complexity associated with programme implementation and cites the perspectives of a number of participants. Disaster education is shown to be the necessary yet underappreciated twin of the militarised and technical approaches that dominate disaster response in Brazil. Understated, however, is education's situatedness: how it can become an arena of conflict between government and civil actors over matters of state and society in increasingly hazardous urbanisation settings in Latin America.     

Substance use among populations displaced by conflict: a literature review

This paper reviews the literature on substance use among populations displaced by conflict. Of the 17 publications presenting primary data retained for review, all consider populations in or recovering from protracted conflict, the majority (10) in non-camp settings. Most studies (10) offer prevalence estimates, suggesting that substance use (such as of alcohol, opiates, or minor tranquilizers) is common in some displaced settings. Five describe harmful consequences of substance use among displaced populations (such as HIV transmission, tuberculosis treatment failure, gender-based violence, and economic problems). Three studies suggest risk factors for substance use problems (such as gender, trauma-related conditions, pre-displacement substance use, and socio-economic factors); two examine qualitatively the gendered nature of alcohol-related harm and its links with gender-based violence. One study examines an intervention. The evidence base is weak. Findings are used to develop a conceptual framework emphasizing the risk environment to inform further research, to encourage debate among researchers and practitioners, and to enable the development of interventions.     

Reconciling reintegration: the complexity of economic and social reintegration of ex‐combatants in Burundi

The extent to which disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programmes initiated by state or multilateral agencies can realise the reintegration of ex‐combatants remains debated. While some consider that DDR should have the ambition to result in long‐term reintegration, others argue that DDR should focus on short‐term goals. This paper explores experiences with the reintegration of ex‐combatants in Burundi. It shows the interconnectedness of economic and social reintegration processes, and demonstrates that the reintegration of ex‐combatants cannot be seen in isolation from the wider recovery and development context in which DDR is taking place. Moreover, the case demonstrates that reconciliation and social reintegration are deeply interconnected, to the extent that social reintegration may fail if reconciliation is not taken into account. Rather than a debate between long‐ and short‐term goals, the focus should therefore be on increasing the understanding of reintegration processes and finding ways in which programmes can contribute to those.     

Rights,Standards and Quality in a Complex Humanitarian Space: Is Sphere the Right Tool?

The Sphere Project (consisting of both the Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards for Disaster Response) has made prominent contributions to the debates, thinking and work on the quality of assistance and accountability of aid agencies. However, since its inception in 1997, several agencies expressed concerns regarding Sphere's approach, many of which were confirmed by the Sphere evaluation (2002/3). The present article restates these concerns, and addresses more fundamental issues regarding Sphere's cornerstone. It questions the validity of Sphere's rights-based approach, which consists of a tenuous link between the rights of affected populations and standards for technical interventions. Sphere is founded on "the right to assistance", although this right does not exist in international law. Its elaboration would entail solving several complex legal and political issues, which Sphere fails to address. This article also questions the validity and usefulness of universal standards for technical performance in helping relief agencies provide adapted assistance to disaster-affected populations, in line with their mandates and principles. It suggests that Sphere's approach and content largely reflect the concerns, priorities and values of technical professionals in Northern agencies, leaving limited space to genuine "participation" by affected populations and partners from the South.     

Shelter recovery in urban Haiti after the earthquake: the dual role of social capital

This paper documents the culture‐specific understanding of social capital among Haitians and examines its benefits and downsides in post‐disaster shelter recovery following the 12 January 2010 earthquake. The case study of shelter recovery processes in three socioeconomically diverse communities (Pétion‐Ville, Delmas and Canapé Vert) in Port‐au‐Prince suggests that social capital plays dual roles in post‐disaster shelter recovery of the displaced population in Haiti. On the one hand, it provides enhanced access to shelter‐related resources for those with connections. On the other hand, it accentuates pre‐existing inequalities or creates new inequalities among displaced Haitians. In some cases, such inequalities lead to tensions between the have and have‐nots and instigate violence among the displaced.     

Community-based disaster preparedness and climate adaptation: local capacity-building in the Philippines

Community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) approaches are increasingly important elements of vulnerability reduction and disaster management strategies. They are associated with a policy trend that values the knowledge and capacities of local people and builds on local resources, including social capital. CBDP may be instrumental not only in formulating local coping and adaptation strategies, but also in situating them within wider development planning and debates. In theory, local people can be mobilised to resist unsustainable (vulnerability increasing) forms of development or livelihood practices and to raise local concerns more effectively with political representatives. This paper focuses on the potential of CBDP initiatives to alleviate vulnerability in the context of climate change, and their limitations. It presents evidence from the Philippines that, in the limited forms in which they are currently employed, CBDP initiatives have the potential both to empower and disempower, and warns against treating CBDP as a panacea to disaster management problems.