Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer

Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest and range land development on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions.     

Environmental Values and Popular Conflict over Environmental Management: A Comparative Analysis of Public Comments on the Clinton Forest Plan

/ Public participation in environmental management decisions has frequently led to conflict. This paper examines the role of environmental values in fueling these conflicts, based on a data base and sample content analysis of written public comments solicited in 1994 regarding the highly contentious Clinton Forest Plan (also known as Option 9) proposed for management of federal forests in the US Pacific Northwest. The analysis considered whether those respondents favoring more versus less environmental protection than was offered in Option 9 held entirely different values, identifying which antagonistic values appeared to be most fundamental and where (if at all) values consensus occurred. It also compared values emanating from respondents within and outside the affected region, although few major differences were detected in this regard. Results suggest that strong values differences did exist among those preferring greater versus less environmental protection, in particular as concerned the extent, form, and spatial and temporal scope of justification of their positions, their ideas of forests, and the appropriate role of people in forest management. Disagreement concerned far more than purely environmental values: a major point of difference involved human benefits and harms of the proposed forest plan. Indeed, both sides' positions were overridingly anthropocentric and consequentialist-a values orientation that almost inevitably spells conflict in light of the commonly differentiated social impacts of environmental management decisions. Although public involvement in environmental management thus cannot be expected to lead to a clear and consensual social directive, the Pacific Northwest case suggests that viable environmental management solutions that take this range of values into account can still be crafted.KEY WORDS: Environmental values; Public participation; Clinton Forest Plan; Pacific Northwest     

Water water everywhere,but not enough for salmon? Organizing integrated water and fisheries management in Puget Sound

Natural resource management has traditionally been organized within discrete land, water, and fishery resource sectors. However, emerging environmental problems often cross these boundaries, and managers have struggled to find effective planning approaches for multi-resource concerns. No case better exemplifies these challenges than efforts to ensure sufficient flows of water for salmon in the Pacific Northwest. In this study, we investigate the organizational experiences of collaborative water and salmon recovery planning groups in the Puget Sound region of Washington. Using conceptual frameworks from organizational sociology, we examine how different regulative, normative, and cultural-cognitive institutional forces shape the structure and behavior of both water and salmon recovery planning groups. Data obtained through content analysis of planning documents and interviews with natural resource planners illustrate that legal structures, shared intra-group norms, and the distinct organizational cultures of water and salmon recovery groups constrain these organizations' ability to address linked water-for-salmon concerns. These findings illustrate that assessing institutional and organizational arrangements may be equally as important as understanding hydrology and biology when attempting to forward an integrated approach to water and fisheries management.     

A dynamic model for intertemporal allocation of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Across the globe, continued policy debates regarding the management of old-growth forests center around the difficult task of balancing economic and ecological considerations. Though the forests of the Pacific Northwest United States are among the most studied old-growth ecosystems, ecological and economic analyses have yielded public land management directives that remain controversial. Specifically, the recently adopted Northwest Forest Plan lacks explicit goals for maintaining intergenerational equity for the use of forest resources and the diversity of old-growth ecosystems. Unlike previous studies which rely on monetary quantification of costs and benefits, this study develops and applies a conceptual framework for evaluating socially optimal Pacific Northwest old-growth forest utilization strategies. Conditions for the optimal management of old-growth forests are derived using dynamic programming. The objective function synthesizes relevant biological and economic attributes of the old-growth allocation problem. Results in the form of extraction paths are compared given social pressure for consumptive and non-consumptive benefits, as well as different planning horizons, rates of social time preference, and environmental variance. Lengthening the planning horizon results in a vast divergence of optimal policies in the absence of discounting. Extraction rates appear to approach zero as the planning horizon approaches infinity. While higher rates of social time preference increase the rate of extraction, forest stocks remaining at the terminal time period equal levels remaining with a lower discount rate. Increasing environmental variance results in a higher level of stock remaining at the terminal time period. This analysis, while specific to the old-growth controversy of the Pacific Northwest, does provide general guidelines for addressing similar problems of multiple uses of natural areas, particularly where such uses are mutually incompatible, or where one use may be irreversibly destructive to another.     

RIPARIAN COMMUNITIES ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEADWATER STREAMS: ASSEMBLAGES,PROCESSES, AND UNIQUENESS1

Riparian areas of large streams provide important habitat to many species and control many instream processes — but is the same true for the margins of small streams? This review considers riparian areas alongside small streams in forested, mountainous areas of the Pacific Northwest and asks if there are fundamental ecological differences from larger streams and from other regions and if there are consequences for management from any differences. In the moist forests along many small streams of the Pacific Northwest, the contrast between the streamside and upslope forest is not as strong as that found in drier regions. Small streams typically lack floodplains, and the riparian area is often constrained by the hillslope. Nevertheless, riparian‐associated organisms, some unique to headwater areas, are found along small streams. Disturbance of hillslopes and stream channels and microclimatic effects of streams on the riparian area provide great heterogeneity in processes and diversity of habitats. The tight coupling of the terrestrial riparian area with the aquatic system results from the closed canopy and high edge‐to‐area ratio for small streams. Riparian areas of the temperate, conifer dominated forests of the Pacific Northwest provide a unique environment. Forest management guidelines for small streams vary widely, and there has been little evaluation of the local or downstream consequences of forest practices along small streams.     

Nipped in the Bud: Why Regional Scale Adaptive Management Is Not Blooming

Adaptive management is an approach to managing natural resources that emphasizes learning from the implementation of policies and strategies. Adaptive management appears to offer a solution to the management gridlock caused by increasing complexity and uncertainty. The concept of adaptive management has been embraced by natural resource managers worldwide, but there are relatively few published examples of adaptive management in use. In this article, we explore two watershed management projects in southeastern Australia to better understand the potential of adaptive management in regional scale programs through qualitative, case study–based investigation. The program logic of one case implies the use of passive adaptive management, whereas the second case claims to be based on active adaptive management. Data were created using participant observation, semistructured interviews with individuals and groups, and document review. Using thematic content and metaphor analysis to explore the case data, we found that each case was successful as an implementation project. However, the use of both passive and active adaptive management was constrained by deeply entrenched social norms and institutional frameworks. We identified seven “imperatives” that guided the behavior of project stakeholders, and that have consequences for the use of adaptive management. Reference to recent evaluations of the Adaptive Management Areas of the Pacific Northwest of the United States suggests that some of these imperatives and their consequences have broad applicability. The implications of our findings are discussed, and suggestions for improving the outcomes of regional scale adaptive management are provided.     

A Review of Habitat Connectivity Research for Pacific Salmon in Marine,Estuary, and Freshwater Environments

Long‐term conservation planning for diadromous fishes would benefit from a better understanding of both the role of connectivity among environments and habitat variability in the expression of life‐history diversity. Most of the scientific knowledge on habitat fragmentation and connectivity has been developed in terrestrial systems in the discipline of landscape ecology. Research on habitat connectivity in aquatic systems (e.g., salmonid research that spans the spectrum of habitats from freshwater to the sea) is uncommon and largely focused on barriers to fish passage. Here, we present a review of the literature characterizing current research patterns on habitat connectivity within and among environments for Pacific salmon. We found this topic is still incipient: the literature is dominated by studies of freshwaters, with few articles focusing on habitat needs in estuary and marine systems. Pan‐environment studies are rare, pointing to a gap in our understanding of complex habitat relationships that might be significant in the development of long‐term conservation and restoration plans for Pacific salmon, particularly in light of the potential impact of climate change.     

Adaptive management on the central Platte River--science, engineering, and decision analysis to assist in the recovery of four species

Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions.     

Doubling sockeye salmon production in the Fraser River—Is this sustainable development?

We evaluate a proposal to double sockeye salmon production from the Fraser River and conclude that significant changes will be required to current management processes, particularly the way available catch is allocated, if the plan is to be consistent with five major principles embodied in the concept of sustainable development. Doubling sockeye salmon production will not, in itself, increase economic equity either regionally or globally. Developing nations may actually be hindered in their attempts to institute other, nonsalmon fisheries in the North Pacific Ocean as a result of the possible interception of salmon. Further, other users of the Fraser River basin will have to forgo opportunities so that salmon habitat can be conserved. If doubling sockeye salmon production is to meet the goal of doing more with less, it will be necessary to develop more efficient technologies to harvest the fish. If increasing salmon production is to reflect the integration of environmental and economic decision making at the highest level, then a serious attempt must be made to incorporate environmental assets into national economic accounting. Finally, to promote biodiversity and cultural self-sufficiency within the Fraser River basin, it will be important to safeguard the small, less-productive salmon stocks as well as the large ones and to allocate a substantial portion of the increased production to the Native Indian community.     

Changes in attitudes about importance of and willingness to pay for salmon recovery in Oregon

Salmon are perhaps the quintessential icon of the Pacific Northwest, affecting the region's culture, politics, and economy. The importance Oregonians place on salmon recovery and their willingness to pay for salmon recovery efforts was assessed biennially between 1996 and 2002 through the Oregon Population Survey. Based on these data, we found that Oregonians appear to have become less supportive toward salmon recovery and salmon recovery efforts over that time period; they were less likely to say salmon recovery is important and chose lower willingness to pay responses in 2002 than in 1996.Attitudes do appear to be related to the economic conditions and demographic composition of residents of the state. In particular, we found that local unemployment rates, age of respondent, and rural county residence are significantly negatively correlated with the respondent's expressed support for salmon recovery efforts. Attributes positively correlated with expressions of support for salmon include male gender, graduate-level education, and American Indian identity. We found that a significant portion of the decline in support is unexplained by the variables included in the analysis.     

Perspectives on the landmark decision designating the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) as a threatened subspecies

Following an extensive legal battle challenging its original decision to not extend the protection of the Endangered Species Act to the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), the US Fish and Wildlife Service was ordered by the 9th District Court of Appeals to reassess the status of the owl. As a result of the revised analysis, the service proposed the northern spotted owl for threatened status throughout its range. Because of the complex biological issues involved and the perceived potential for economic disruption in timber-dependent communities of the Pacific Northwest, this proposal generated more controversy and interest than any previous one. In this article I discuss the rationale for the service’s decision, public involvement in the process, and the mechanisms now available to conserve the northern spotted owl and its habitat under the Endangered Species Act.     

COOPERATIVE MANAGEMENT OF THE DUNGENESS WATERSHED TO PROTECT SALMON IN WASHINGTON STATE1

ABSTRACT: Over the last decade, the Jamestown S'Klallam Tribe has formed partnerships with their neighboring county government, irrigation districts, property owners, and state and federal agencies in an effort to save the dwindling runs of Dungeness River salmon. Although considerable progress has been made to begin the recovery process, the watershed is included in recent listings of Pacific Northwest salmon under the Endangered Species Act. Under the coordination of an active watershed council, significant improvements have been made in water conservation and the protection of instream flows. Cooperation between the Tribe, irrigation districts and the Washington Department of Ecology resulted in a trust water rights agreement and the reduction of late summer water withdrawals by one‐third.     

A Simple Model that Identifies Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Estuarine and Estuary-Ecotone Habitat Locations for Salmonids in Oregon, USA

Diadromous aquatic species that cross a diverse range of habitats (including marine, estuarine, and freshwater) face different effects of climate change in each environment. One such group of species is the anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). Studies of the potential effects of climate change on salmonids have focused on both marine and freshwater environments. Access to a variety of estuarine habitat has been shown to enhance juvenile life-history diversity, thereby contributing to the resilience of many salmonid species. Our study is focused on the effect of sea-level rise on the availability, complexity, and distribution of estuarine, and low-freshwater habitat for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), steelhead (anadromous O. mykiss), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) along the Oregon Coast under future climate change scenarios. Using LiDAR, we modeled the geomorphologies of five Oregon estuaries and estimated a contour associated with the current mean high tide. Contour intervals at 1- and 2-m increments above the current mean high tide were generated, and changes in the estuary morphology were assessed. Because our analysis relied on digital data, we compared three types of digital data in one estuary to assess the utility of different data sets in predicting the changes in estuary shape. For each salmonid species, changes in the amount and complexity of estuarine edge habitats varied by estuary. The simple modeling approach we applied can also be used to identify areas that may be most amenable to pre-emptive restoration actions to mitigate or enhance salmonid habitat under future climatic conditions.     

A lidar-based assessment of riparian shade and large wood potential in the Skagit River watershed,WA

Wild salmon stocks in the Pacific Northwest are imperiled by a variety of declining habitat factors, including riparian shade and in-channel large wood. In this paper, a relatively simple lidar model of the riparian canopy was used along anadromous streams in the Skagit River watershed in western Washington State, United States, to delineate where riparian trees were most lacking, and where restoration efforts would have the greatest benefit in terms of shade and large wood recruitment potential. Within a 45-m riparian buffer, 61% of riparian zones were currently incapable of delivering large wood to the stream. Current potential for large wood recruitment is greatest adjacent to stream edges and falls off rapidly with distance from the channel. Approximately 99% of large wood recruitment potential lies within 45 m of the channel edge, and 50% of the wood potential is within 9 m. A hypothetical canopy model in which all trees mature to a 100-year height would provide 18% more shade distributed over the entire watershed, and 90% more shade in the tributaries. Most of the potential gains in improved shade and large wood contributions are in agricultural areas, as opposed to forestry or urban land uses. The shade and large wood models were constructed from widely available geographic information system tools and are readily transferable to other watersheds with similar characteristics. Model outputs are intended for use in planning restoration projects, as an input to stream temperature models, and to inform policy on restoration priorities and regulatory buffer widths.     

Vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change: A life cycle perspective using expert judgments

Fraser River sockeye salmon have been the basis for a major commercial fishery shared by Canada and the United States, and an important cultural foundation for many aboriginal groups; they are also of huge ecological significance throughout the Fraser Basin. The potential for altered aquatic habitat and temperature regimes due to climate change is an important concern for Fraser River sockeye salmon. This paper characterizes the vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to future climate change using an approach that is novel on three counts. First, previous efforts to assess the vulnerability of salmon to climate change have largely focused on only part of the life cycle, whereas we consider climate vulnerability at all stages in the life cycle. Second, we use the available scientific literature to provide a basis for structuring and eliciting judgments from fisheries science and management experts who research and manage these systems. Third, we consider prospects for mitigating the effects of climate change on sockeye salmon. Tests showed that participants’ judgments differentiated in statistically significant ways among questions that varied in terms of life stages, spawning regions and climate scenarios. The consensus among participants was that Fraser River sockeye are most vulnerable to climate change during the egg and returning adult stages of the life cycle. A high temperature scenario was seen as imposing the greatest risk on sockeye stocks, particularly those that migrate to the upper reaches of the Fraser River system and spawn earlier in the summer. The inability to alter water temperature and the highly constrained nature of sockeye management, with competing gear types and sequential fisheries over a long distance, suggest the potential to mitigate adverse effects is limited. Fraser River sockeye already demonstrate a great deal of adaptive capacity in utilizing heterogeneous habitats in different river sub-basins. This adaptability points to the potential value of policies to make stocks more resilient to uncertain futures.     

Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest1

Huang, Biao, Christian Langpap, and Richard M. Adams, 2011. Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):861‐876. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00562.x Abstract: Water temperature is an important factor affecting aquatic life within the stream environment. Cold water species, such as salmonids, are particularly susceptible to elevated water temperatures. This paper examines the potential usefulness of short‐term (7 to 10 days) water temperature forecasts for salmonid management. Forecasts may be valuable if they allow the water resource manager to make better water allocation decisions. This study considers two applications: water releases from Lewiston Dam for management of adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Klamath River and leasing water from agriculture for management of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the John Day River. We incorporate biophysical models and water temperature distribution data into a Bayesian framework to simulate changes in fish populations and the corresponding opportunity cost of water under different levels of temperature forecast reliability. Simulation results indicate that use of the forecasts results in increased fish production and that marginal costs decline as forecast reliability increases, suggesting that provision and use of such stream temperature forecasts would have potential value to society.     

Stream corridor management in the Pacific Northwest: II. Management strategies

King County, Washington is part of the rapidly growing Pacific Northwest region. Analysis of past and current federal, state, and county regulations and administation reveals how stream corridors have been protected to date. This article draws on scientific literature and a case study to suggest future management strategies and guidelines for controlling development in King County watersheds.     

Use of Aquaculture Ponds and Other Habitats by Autumn Migrating Shorebirds Along the Lower Mississippi River

Populations of many shorebird species are declining; habitat loss and degradation are among the leading causes for these declines. Shorebirds use a variety of habitats along interior migratory routes including managed moist soil units, natural wetlands, sandbars, and agricultural lands such as harvested rice fields. Less well known is shorebird use of freshwater aquaculture facilities, such as commercial cat- and crayfish ponds. We compared shorebird habitat use at drained aquaculture ponds, moist soil units, agricultural areas, sandbars and other natural habitat, and a sewage treatment facility in the in the lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMAV) during autumn 2009. Six species: Least Sandpiper (Calidris minutilla), Killdeer (Charadrius vociferous), Semipalmated Sandpiper (Calidris pusilla), Pectoral Sandpiper (C. melanotos), Black-necked Stilt (Himantopus himantopus), and Lesser Yellowlegs (Tringa flavipes), accounted for 92 % of the 31,165 individuals observed. Sewage settling lagoons (83.4, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 25.3–141.5 birds/ha), drained aquaculture ponds (33.5, 95 % CI 22.4–44.6 birds/ha), and managed moist soil units on public lands (15.7, CI 11.2–20.3 birds/ha) had the highest estimated densities of shorebirds. The estimated 1,100 ha of drained aquaculture ponds available during autumn 2009 provided over half of the estimated requirement of 2,000 ha by the LMAV Joint Venture working group. However, because of the decline in the aquaculture industry, autumn shorebird habitats in the LMAV may be limited in the near future. Recognition of the current aquaculture habitat trends will be important to the future management activities of federal and state agencies. Should these aquaculture habitat trends continue, there may be a need for wildlife biologists to investigate other habitats that can be managed to offset the current and expected loss of aquaculture acreages. This study illustrates the potential for freshwater aquaculture to provide habitat for a taxa at risk. With the rapid growth of aquaculture worldwide, the practices of this industry deserve attention to identify benefits as well as risks to wildlife.     

PROFILE: Hungry Water: Effects of Dams and Gravel Mining on River Channels

/ Rivers transport sediment from eroding uplands to depositional areas near sea level. If the continuity of sediment transport is interrupted by dams or removal of sediment from the channel by gravel mining, the flow may become sediment-starved (hungry water) and prone to erode the channel bed and banks, producing channel incision (downcutting), coarsening of bed material, and loss of spawning gravels for salmon and trout (as smaller gravels are transported without replacement from upstream). Gravel is artificially added to the River Rhine to prevent further incision and to many other rivers in attempts to restore spawning habitat. It is possible to pass incoming sediment through some small reservoirs, thereby maintaining the continuity of sediment transport through the system. Damming and mining have reduced sediment delivery from rivers to many coastal areas, leading to accelerated beach erosion. Sand and gravel are mined for construction aggregate from river channel and floodplains. In-channel mining commonly causes incision, which may propagate up- and downstream of the mine, undermining bridges, inducing channel instability, and lowering alluvial water tables. Floodplain gravel pits have the potential to become wildlife habitat upon reclamation, but may be captured by the active channel and thereby become instream pits. Management of sand and gravel in rivers must be done on a regional basis, restoring the continuity of sediment transport where possible and encouraging alternatives to river-derived aggregate sources.KEY WORDS: Dams; Aquatic habitat; Sediment transport; Erosion; Sedimentation; Gravel mining