Thermal runaway criterion for chemical reaction systems: A modified divergence method

The chemical reaction in certain range of operating conditions may exhibit parametric sensitivity where small changes in one or more of the input parameters lead to changes in the output variables (eg. reaction temperature). The sharp rise of the reaction temperature is a critical behavior that may lead to runaway conditions. Thus, it is of vital importance to determine the critical operating parameters consisting of the parametric sensitivity region under the consideration of intrinsic safety. In this paper, a modified divergence criterion is proposed based on the trace of Jacobian matrix at the maximum temperature. The nonlinear differential equations describing the dynamic behavior of the chemical reaction is linearized locally in the vicinity of the equilibrium point by the small perturbation analysis. The relationship between the perturbation equation and parametric sensitivity of the reaction system is investigated. The critical values computed by the modified divergence criterion are compared with Morbidelli and Varma criterion (MV criterion), Adler and Enig criterion (AE criterion) and divergence criterion (Div criterion). The comparison demonstrates the validity of the new criterion. In addition, the critical explosion pressures of two kinds of hazardous chemicals are computed by the various critical criteria and compared with published experimental data. The results show that the modified divergence criterion could give smaller computational error compared with the previous criteria.     

考虑心理阈值的突发事件多部门应急决策动态调整方法

针对多部门协同参与应急决策并执行应急方案的情形,提出一种考虑心理阈值的多部门应急决策动态调整方法。首先,将各部门的心理参照点作为识别框架,合成各部门心理参照点的基本概率分配,得到部门协同心理参照点;然后,引入心理阈值区间量化描述决策部门的心理行为,并结合部门协同心理参照点,得到不同情景关于经济损失和人员伤亡的满意度,进而合成情景属性满意度,计算各备选方案的总体满意度,并对方案排序择优;最后,通过案例分析验证本文提出方法的有效性和适用性。     

动态条件下的高风险系统安全合作行为主观博弈研究——以“7·23”甬温线动车事故为例

为探索动态条件对高风险系统安全合作行为效率的影响,将动态成本因素引入演化博弈分析过程,构建一类主观博弈模型。以"7.23"甬温线动车事故为例,运用数值仿真方法分析事故演化过程及原因。结果显示,安全行为成本随时间递增且不利于系统安全。技术人员和运营人员均存在由人机替代效应导致的"搭便车"现象,且前者的"搭便车"问题更突出。提出加强人工控制应急演练、增加安全冗余并严惩"搭便车"现象、加强技术人员的责任认定、运用多媒体手段增强人员风险意识等4项建议。     

建筑业从业人员的危险认知差异特性及成因——基于管理人员与作业人员的比较

为掌握不同岗位建筑业从业人员危险认知的差异状况,以认知心理学为基础,从岗位差异角度,采用了行为调查法、心理测量范式及对比分析法,研究了建筑业从业人员危险认知的基本特性、结果差异及成因。结果表明:建筑业从业人员的危险认知具有过程变化性、结果模糊性、方式效仿性、个体差异性的特点;相同条件下,管理人员比作业人员具有更高的危险认知水平,能更主动地搜索施工危险场景,并对施工安全事故保持较高敏感性;职业背景、行为收益及危险刺激敏感性的不同是造成不同岗位建筑业从业人员危险认知差异的重要原因。     

木材表面火蔓延特性的动态测量研究

通过模拟实验,对不同工况下木材表面的火蔓延特性进行了动态测量研究。首先应用火焰结构显示技术连续观察和记录了木材表面的火蔓延行为和火焰的热结构;其次,利用温度示踪技术对火蔓延过程进行了动态观测,进而获取了在不同条件下的火蔓延速度并分析讨论了木材表面火蔓延的机理。     

Quantitative risk assessment integrated with dynamic process simulation for reactor section in heavy oil desulfurization process

A new methodology for quantitative risk assessment (QRA) integrated with dynamic simulation and accident simulation is proposed. The objective of this study is to discover inherent risks that are undetectable by conventional risk analysis methods based on steady-state conditions. The target process is the reactor section in the heavy oil desulfurization (HOD) process, which is likely to pose vast potential risks due to the high operating conditions of pressure and temperature. First, a dynamic simulation of a shut-down procedure was performed to observe the behavior of process variables using Aspen HYSYS V10, which is a commercially available process software. Based on the results of the dynamic simulation, several blind spots indicating a higher operating pressure than that in the steady-state simulation were identified. To assess the risks of the detected blind spots, a QRA was performed using the commercial software of SAFETI V8.22, which performs risk calculation based on consequence and frequency data. As a result of applying the proposed method to the HOD process, the risk assessment outcome was identified as intolerably risky unlike that of steady-state conditions, thereby indicating that dynamic simulations can serve as a method to spot inherent risks that are undetectable in steady-state conditions. In addition, mitigation procedures that reduce the risk of the process to a tolerable level are performed, thereby enabling a safer and more reliable process.     

动静组合加载作用下块系岩体动力响应分析

深部复杂地质条件下,煤岩破碎更趋呈块系岩体,在动载作用下易于产生超低摩擦效应并失稳诱发煤岩动力灾害。采用FLAC-3D软件模拟块系岩体在垂直冲击载荷和水平静力共同作用下的动力响应,深入分析块系岩体超低摩擦效应发生机理,得到垂直冲击载荷和水平静力共同作用对工作块体位移和应力的影响规律,确定了块系岩体产生残余位移和超低摩擦效应的水平静力特征值条件。研究结果表明:仅垂直冲击载荷作用时,冲击载荷作用强度对残余位移影响并不明显;垂直冲击载荷和水平静力共同作用下,水平静力与残余位移曲线呈半抛物线关系;不同垂直冲击载荷作用下,产生残余位移的突变点不同,且当施加的水平静力处于不同特征值区间时,工作块体运动状态随之不同。     

Developing safety archetypes of construction industry at project level using system dynamics

IntroductionSafe behavior and work conditions are a major concern in construction projects. However, accidents occur due to system failures, not a single factor such as unsafe behavior or condition. Construction safety should be investigated by a systematic view capable of illustrating the complex nature of accidents.MethodThe present research aims to detect and categorize behavior patterns recurring in construction safety management continuously. Content analysis and ground theory method (GTM) were adopted to achieve the study objectives. In total, 90 articles were reviewed to explore the factors influencing safety in construction projects all over the world. Furthermore, 20 interviews were conducted on participants with rich experience in construction health and safety. Four archetypes were identified from data collection process, including delay in design, number of subcontractors, cost and safety of project, and supervisors and safety. Each archetype is completely discussed at different steps of dynamic complexity, behavior over time, and the leverage point to show how to deal with the archetype.     

基于不同强度等级混凝土的动力学特性研究

基于TAW-2000D电液伺服岩石三轴仪和直径75 mm的霍普金森压杆试验装置,得到了C25,C35和C45混凝土在静、动载荷作用下的应力-应变曲线,探讨了混凝土强度等级、动态峰值强度、峰值应变和应变率之间的变化规律。结果表明:混凝土准静态应力-应变曲线和动态应力-应变曲线在形态上存在明显差异,动态应力-应变曲线的峰值点随应变率的增大向右上方移动,线弹性阶段各曲线斜率变化不明显;动态峰值应力、动态弹性模量和峰值应变均存在不同程度的率相关性,并且混凝土材料的应变率敏感性随其强度等级的提高而增强;混凝土C45的各力学指标对应变率的敏感性最强,C35次之,C25的应变率敏感性最弱;推导了应变率与强度等级和冲击速率之间的经验公式,三者之间存在非线性变化规律。     

矿工故意违章行为影响因素系统动力学仿真研究

为进一步探析矿工故意违章行为演化规律,在分析矿工故意违章行为影响因素基础上,基于系统动力学(SD)原理,构建矿工故意违章行为影响因素系统模型。运用Vensim软件仿真分析各因素对故意违章行为的动态影响,实现故意违章行为演化过程的动态模拟仿真。结果表明:工作倦怠和故意违章示范对矿工故意违章行为具有促进作用,安全领导和安全氛围对其具有抑制作用;各影响因素对矿工故意违章行为的作用在力度、起效时间和效用存续期方面均存在差异;在4个因素交互作用下,故意违章行为演化过程呈现出阶段性规律。     

化工企业事故决策者风险感知模拟预测研究

为研究化工园区突发事故情景下,企业决策者的风险感知变化情况,基于系统动 力学系统论、信息论、结构论、控制论、协同论等特点,探索风险感知变化的实际影响 因素体系,并结合vensim软件构建企业决策者的风险感知因果关系图和系统流图,定量 评判、预测、计算和修正各影响因素之间的逻辑关系,建立量化表达函数并模拟,以此 获得各状态变量间的变化情况。对比敏感度分析结果表明:风险感知、风险观念以及风 险行为决策影响因素的正负相关性各有不同,且相互影响。     

Safeguarding Crushing Points by Limitation of Forces

Limitation of forces can be a simple measure to safeguard crushing points at doors, machines, and vehicles. In this connection different standards define a threshold force value of 150 N. This widely accepted value refers to static forces only. The dynamic forces that arise from impact on a person are frequently ignored, although they are generally higher than the static forces.

The article describes an instrument for the measurement of static and dynamic crushing forces. This instrument has a stiffness that approximates the average stiffness of human fingers as one of the most at-risk parts of the human body with regard to crushing injuries. Sensory tests were carried out to define dynamic forces considered admissible at crushing points.     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性，基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法，提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先，利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数，构建管段的影响系数矩阵，并利用信息熵确定管段权重；其次，标准化处理影响系数矩阵，通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法，对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定；最后，根据工程实例进行方法实践，结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理，地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀，而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响，保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

化工园区突发事件情景下的群体行为模拟演化研究

为研究化工园区发生突发事件时社会公众的群体行为，结合系统动力学（SD）理论、方法及实际案例情景、数据，以群体行为态势与群体行为传播人数为核心，构建化工园区突发事件情景下的群体行为因果图和系统流图。通过研究各影响因素间的关系，运用Vensim PLE软件进行动态模拟，分析事件影响力、公众情绪以及政府公信力对群体行为态势以及行为传播人群的动态变化影响。研究结果表明:提高政府公信力，增加社会公众对政府的满意度和信任度，同时正确疏导公众情绪，加大事件公开度，降低事件影响力，能有效应对群体行为的变化，研究结果可为化工园区突发事件情景下的群体行为决策和预防工作提供参考。     

Process safety aspects in water-gas-shift (WGS) membrane reactors used for pure hydrogen production

The syngas produced by coal gasification processes can be utilized in Pd-based water-gas-shift membrane reactors for the production of pure H₂. Pd/alloy composite membrane reactors exhibit comparative advantages over traditional packed bed reactors such as simultaneous reaction/separation in one compact unit and increased reaction yields. Furthermore, the development of comprehensive process intensification strategies could further enhance membrane reactor performance resulting in a substantially smaller and functional, inherently safer, environmentally friendlier and more energy efficient process.A systematic non-isothermal modeling framework under both steady state and dynamic/transient conditions for a catalytic high temperature water-gas shift reaction in a Pd-based membrane reactor has been developed to characterize the dynamic behavior of the process system at various operating conditions from a process safety standpoint. In particular, various reaction conditions as well as key process variables such as feed temperature and flow rate, catalyst loading, driving force for H₂ permeation are considered as they are critically related to various safety aspects in the operation of a Pd-based membrane reactor. Within the proposed framework, process parameters and operating conditions which may induce hazards and compromise process safety are identified, analyzed and characterized. Finally, the proposed approach is evaluated through detailed simulation studies in an illustrative case study involving a real Pd-based membrane reactor used for pure hydrogen production and separation that exhibits complex behavior over a wide operating regime.     

Consequences assessment of explosions in pipes using coupled FEM-SPH method

Explosions often lead to destruction of equipment, which is a difficult problem including complicated fluid-solid interactions. Most traditional CFD methods cannot synchronously solve the movements of fluids and large deformation and fracture of solids because such problem is usually accompanied with constantly moving-and-changing boundary conditions. In this paper, a coupled Finite Element Method-Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (FEM-SPH) method was proposed to simulate the dynamic processes of explosions in pipes. The propagation of blast wave and the fracture of pipe were captured in every timestep, where the energy dissipation caused by plastic deformation and crack propagation were fully considered. A rate-dependent failure criterion for high-strain-rate load conditions was employed in the numerical simulation, which was presented in our previous work and has been verified in the dynamic fracture behavior of steels for pressure vessels and pipes. In addition, a simpler formula was proposed to describe the attenuation of blast wave outside the pipe and the consequences caused by the explosions were assessed. Results revealed the interaction between blast wave and pipe, the leakage of detonation products, the attenuations of peak overpressures outside the pipe and the corresponding consequences at different distances. It is found that when considering the energy consumption during plastic deformation and crack propagation in coupled FEM-SPH method, the assessment results are more rational than that without considering such energy consumption.     

Application of game theory in risk management of urban natural gas pipelines

This paper presents a game theory methodology for risk management of urban natural gas pipelines, which is a collaborative participation mechanism of the stakeholders, including government, pipeline companies, and the public. Firstly, the involvement proportion of stakeholders in risk management under rational conditions is estimated by the static game theory. Subsequently, the system dynamics (SD) simulation is used to establish an evolution game model of stakeholders in risk management under the irrational conditions, in which the stability of the evolution game process is analyzed. The stakeholders’ involvement proportions from the static game model are utilized as the inputs for the evolution game model to simulate the dynamic evolution behavior of risk management strategies with different involvement proportions of stakeholders. Eventually, the dynamic evaluation game can extract an optimal strategy for risk management of urban natural gas pipelines. A case study is used to illustrate the methodology. In essence, this methodology can be extended for implementing risk management of urban infrastructure.     

Measurement and relationship between critical tube diameter and critical energy for direct blast initiation of gaseous detonations

For the explosion safety assessment in industrial setting, detonation dynamic parameters provide important information on the sensitivity and conditions whereby detonations can be favorably occurred. In this study, new measurement of the critical tube diameter and the critical energy for direct initiation of a detonation is reported for a number of hydrocarbon–oxygen mixtures. The simultaneous experimental measurement carried out in this work allows the investigation of the direct scaling between these two dynamic parameter quantities of gaseous detonations. Using the new set of data, this paper also assesses the validity of an existing semi-empirical initiation model, namely, the surface energy model by Lee, and a simplified work done model. Both phenomenological models provide a general relationship between the two dynamic detonation parameters and comparison shows a good agreement between the theoretical results and the experimental measurement. The scaling of critical tube diameter with detonation cell size in this study also confirms the results in the previous literature.     

驾驶员接管自动驾驶车辆的眼动特性和行为分析

为探究接管自动驾驶车辆期间驾驶员的视觉特性,分析眼动与接管反应操控行为的关系,开展驾驶模拟试验收集驾驶行为及眼动数据。运用统计学方法,分析驾驶员感知不同接管场景的视觉特性,探究接管请求(TOR)前后眼动指标的变化规律;并基于视觉分配和瞳孔变化特性分析驾驶行为,揭示眼动特性与接管反应及驾驶操纵策略的内在联系。结果表明:TOR前,相较于静态场景,驾驶员感知动态场景诱发元素扫视更频繁且平均注视时间更短;此时驾驶员的视觉分配特性与其接管反应行为存在显著相关性。TOR后,驾驶员的注视时间增加,眨眼频率降低,瞳孔直径扩张,眼跳幅度增大;不同场景下驾驶员的瞳孔差异表明其应对动态场景时具备更好的警戒水平和更平稳的操纵策略。     

脉冲清灰喷吹气流偏斜的优化研究

为研究改善除尘滤筒清灰过程中喷吹气流偏斜的问题,通过在多孔喷吹管上安装混流喷嘴,在滤筒迎流面和背流面6个测点分别安装压力传感器,测试不同喷吹压力和喷吹距离下的侧壁压力峰值.结果 表明:安装混流喷嘴后,在最优喷吹压力0.4 MPa实验条件下,滤筒迎流面一侧与背流面一侧的压力峰值差距减小,压力动态波形图相似,清灰更加均匀,...