A GAMING EVALUATION OF COLORADO RWER DROUGHT MANAGEMENT INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Researchers representing each of the Colorado River Basin states as well as the Secretary of the Interior were presented with an interactive computer simulation of a progressively increasing drought and were given the collective opportunity to change the ways in which basin-wide and within-state water management were conducted. The purpose of this “gaming” exercise was to identify rules for managing the Colorado River which are effective in preventing drought-caused damages to basin water users. This water management game was conducted three times, varying the collective choice roles for management of the river yet staying substantially within the current institution for management of the Colorado River known as the “Law of the River.” The Law of the River was quite effective in minimizing drought impacts upon consumptive water uses. Additional effective drought-coping measures to protect consumptive uses consisted mostly of intrastate water management improvements which states were able to implement independently. The Law of the River did not protect non-consumptive water uses, such as hydroelectric power generation, water-based recreation, endangered species, and water quality from drought, as well as it protected consumptive water uses. Players reached collective choice decisions to cope with rising salinity, equalize storage between the upper and lower basins, and protect endangered species. While these measures had some success, only reductions in withdrawals for consumptive uses, particularly in the upper basin, could have substantially lessened adverse impacts.     

CENTRAL NEBRASKA RIVER BASINS,NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: The Central Nebraska Basins (NAWQA) study unit includes the Platte River and two major tributaries, the Loup and Elkhorn Rivers. Platte River flows are variable in the western part of the study unit because of diversions, but the Loup and Elkhorn Rivers originate in an area of dune sand covered by grassland that generates consistent base flows. More frequent runoff in the eastern part of the study unit also sustains stream flow. Ground water in the study unit has no regional confining units and the system is a water table aquifer throughout. Macroinvertebrate and fish taxa at biological sampling sites in the state were related to stream flow. One of the four wetland complexes identified in the study unit includes habitat for threatened and endangered bird species. The study unit is an agricultural area that includes row crops, both irrigated and nonirrigated in the eastern and southern parts, and rangeland in the Sand Hills of the western part. A water quality assessment will be based on the differences in environmental setting in each of four subunits within the study unit.]     

RESOLUTION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT ISSUES IN PERMITTING TILE PLATEAU CREEK PIPELINE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes how a hydrologic model proved to be a valuable tool to help interested parties understand impacts to four threatened and endangered fish species in the Upper Colorado River. In 1994, the Ute Water Conservancy District initiated permitting and design of the Plateau Creek pipeline replacement. The project was considered a major Federal action and therefore subject to the National Environmental Policy Act. Under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) entered the process to develop a Biological Opinion (BO) and determined that the project could potentially impact the endangered fish in the 15‐mile reach of the Colorado River. The Section 7 consultation was directed by a Core Committee comprised of stakeholders in the Upper Colorado River watershed. Hydrologic modeling became the evaluation tool for comparing flow reductions to USFWS target recovery flows and defining make‐up flow requirements to meet those targets. The Colorado River Recovery Implementation Program was designated to provide the make‐up flows. The USFWS released a final BO in December 1997, approving diversions through 2015. An Environmental Impact Statement for the project was completed and the Record of Decision was issued by the Bureau of Land Management in early 1998.     

WATER FOR ENERGY: AN APPROACH TO COMPREHENSIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: The effects of energy development on the water resources of the Colorado River and Great Basin regions is expected to be substantial. Complex physical, economic and institutional interactions may be expected. Most research on these impacts appears single purpose, fragmented, uncoordinated, and often inaccessible to potential users - particularly those with responsibility for energy/water policy and program decisions. A comprehensive, integrative framework for assessing alternative water allocation decisions is outlined, taking a heuristic decision making model for evaluating impacts on maximization of gross (or net) regional product, and regional social welfare, and for assessing the region's contribution to national objectives. The suggested model provides a structure for application and integration of data of various kinds to a range of situations arising from possible impacts from energy proposals. The focus is on water and energy relationships but the model may provide a framework for comprehensive analysis of a variety of environmental actions and resulting system perturbations and effects.     

Climate extremes and adaptive management on the Colorado River: lessons from the 1997-1998 ENSO event.

The Colorado River system exhibits the characteristics of a heavily over-allocated or 'closing water system'. In such systems, development of mechanisms to allow resource users to acknowledge interdependence and to engage in negotiations and agreements becomes necessary. Recently, after a decade of deliberations and environmental assessments, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) was established to monitor and analyze the effects of dam operations on the Grand Canyon ecosystem and recommend adjustments intended to preserve and enhance downstream physical, cultural and environmental values. The Glen Canyon Dam effectively separates the Colorado into its lower and upper basins. Dam operations and adaptive management decisions are strongly influenced by variations in regional climate. This paper focuses on the management of extreme climatic events within the Glen and Grand Canyon Region of the Colorado River. It illustrates how past events (both societal and physical) condition management flexibility and receptivity to new information. The types of climatic information and their appropriate entry points in the annual cycle of information gathering and decision-making (the 'hydro-climatic decision calendar') for dam operations and the adaptive management program are identified. The study then describes how the recently implemented program, lessons from past events, and new climate information on the Colorado River Basin, facilitated responses during the major El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1997-1998. Recommendations are made for engaging researchers and practitioners in the effective use of climatic information in similar settings where the decision stakes are complex and the system uncertainty is large.     

Analysis of potential impacts to resident fish from Columbia River System Operation alternatives

The US Army Corps of Engineers, the US Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bonneville Power Administration initiated the Columbia River System Operation Review (SOR) in 1990. The SOR will assist agencies in comparing the benefits and risks to Columbia River uses and natural resources from alternative strategies for using Columbia River water. Focusing on 14 federal dams within the basin, the agencies are attempting to improve on the efficient and coordinated use of the Columbia River system. An initial screening of all potential strategies of reservoir operation was necessary to reduce the number of possibilities to a limited set for detailed analysis. To that end, the Resident Fish Work Group of the SOR developed spreadsheet models capable of assessing the impacts of different management strategies on resident fish at six storage reservoirs. The models include biological, physical, and hydrological relationships important to resident fish specific to each reservoir. Alternatives that kept the reservoirs near full pool and held stable during the growing season resulted in positive benefits to resident fish at all locations modeled. Conversely, alternatives designed to improve anadromous fish survival with increased instream flow generally had a negative impact on the resident fish in the reservoirs modeled. The models developed for resident fish in the screening analysis phase of the SOR were useful in assessing the relative impact to resident fish from a large number of alternatives. The screening analysis demonstrated that future analytical efforts must consider trade-offs among river uses/resource groups, among reservoirs throughout the basin, and among resident fish species within a reservoir.Pacific Northwest Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830.     

THE LAW OF THE COLORADO RIVER: COPING WITH SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: The waters of the Colorado River are divided among seven states according to a complex ‘Law of the River’ drawn from interstate compacts, international treaties, statutes, and regulations. The Law of the River creates certain priorities among the states and the Republic of Mexico, and in the event of a severe sustained drought, the Law of the River dictates the distribution of water and operation of the elaborate reservoir system. Earlier work indicated that there is remarkable resilience in the system for established uses of water in the Lower Basin of the Colorado River. This work shows, based on an application of the Law of the River using computer modeling of operations of facilities on the Colorado River, that there may be serious environmental consequences and related legal restraints on how the water is used in times of shortage and that the existing legal and institutional framework governing the Colorado River does not adequately address all the issues that would be raised in a severe sustained drought. Several possible legal options for dealing with drought in the context of the Law of the River are identified.     

LAW,HYDROLOGY, AND SURFACE-WATER SUPPLY IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Law and hydrology are inextricably woven together in the pattern of water resource development in the west. The former attempts to allocate a limited and valuable resource as the latter tries to define the limits of the resource. In the past an inadequate data base has made hydrologic estimates difficult and political factors have pushed the law into possibly conflicting commitments in the Colorado River Basin. Through the use of tree-ring research, hydrologists have produced a more definitive data base and placed water allocations such as the Colorado River Compact of 1922 in a clearer long-term perspective. This data base leads to the conclusion that the surface-water supply is about 13.5 million acre-feet per year. This hydrologic limit must be apportioned within an existing legal framework - the “Law of the River.” As development approaches the resource limit in the Upper Colorado River Basin, lawyers and hydrologists must act in concert toward the equitable solution of allocation and reallocation problems.     

COMPETING WATER USES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES: VALUING DROUGHT DAMAGES1

ABSTRACT: Economic benefit functions of water resource use are estimated for all major offstream and instream uses of Colorado River water. Specific benefit estimates are developed for numerous agricultural regions, for municipal uses, and for cooling water in thermal energy generation. Economic benefits of hydropower generation are given, as are those for recreation on Colorado River reservoirs and on one free-flowing reach. Marginal and total benefit estimates for Colorado River water use are provided. The estimates presented here represent a synthesis of previous work, providing in total a comprehensive set of economic demand functions for competing uses of Colorado River water. Non-use values (e.g., benefits of preserving endangered species) are not estimated.     

Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest1

Huang, Biao, Christian Langpap, and Richard M. Adams, 2011. Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):861‐876. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00562.x Abstract: Water temperature is an important factor affecting aquatic life within the stream environment. Cold water species, such as salmonids, are particularly susceptible to elevated water temperatures. This paper examines the potential usefulness of short‐term (7 to 10 days) water temperature forecasts for salmonid management. Forecasts may be valuable if they allow the water resource manager to make better water allocation decisions. This study considers two applications: water releases from Lewiston Dam for management of adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Klamath River and leasing water from agriculture for management of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the John Day River. We incorporate biophysical models and water temperature distribution data into a Bayesian framework to simulate changes in fish populations and the corresponding opportunity cost of water under different levels of temperature forecast reliability. Simulation results indicate that use of the forecasts results in increased fish production and that marginal costs decline as forecast reliability increases, suggesting that provision and use of such stream temperature forecasts would have potential value to society.     

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TO MANAGE SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES1

ABSTRACT: Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western United States river basins because they impact threatened fish species’habitat. One way to alleviate this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. Presented is a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS uses a statistical model for predicting daily stream temperatures and a rule‐based module to compute reservoir releases. Water releases are calculated to meet fish habitat temperature targets based on the predicted stream temperature and a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. Strategies that enable effective use of a limited amount of water throughout the season have also been incorporated in the DSS. The utility of the DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada, using hypothetical operating policy and 1988 through 1994 inflows. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations (i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat).     

A Water Allocation Decision‐Support Model and Tool for Predictions in Ungauged Basins in Northeast British Columbia,Canada

Pressures on water resources due to changing climate, increasing demands, and enhanced recognition of environmental flow needs result in the need for hydrology information to support informed water allocation decisions. However, the absence of hydrometric measurements and limited access to hydrology information in many areas impairs water allocation decision‐making. This paper describes a water balance‐based modeling approach and an innovative web‐based decision‐support hydrology tool developed to address this need. Using high‐resolution climate, vegetation, and watershed data, a simple gridded water balance model, adjusted to account for locational variability, was developed and calibrated against gauged watersheds, to model mean annual runoff. Mean monthly runoff was modeled empirically, using multivariate regression. The modeled annual runoff results are within 20% of the observed mean annual discharge for 78% of the calibration watersheds, with a mean absolute error of 16%. Modeled monthly runoff corresponds well to observed monthly runoff, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe statistic of 0.92 and a median Spearman rank correlation statistic of 0.98. Monthly and annual flow estimates produced from the model are incorporated into a map‐ and watershed‐based decision‐support system referred to as the Northeast Water Tool, to provide critical information to decision makers and others on natural water supply, existing allocations, and the needs of the environment.     

Effects of Flow Augmentations in the Snake River Basin on Farms Profitability1

Abstract: For over 10 years, several species of salmon have been identified as either threatened or endangered in the Snake River Basin of Idaho. The United States Bureau of Reclamation, in cooperation with the National Marine Fisheries Service, has proposed a variety of plans to increase stream flows in the Snake River Basin to facilitate movement by juvenile salmon smolts to the ocean. This research examines two of the flow augmentation plans proposed by the Bureau of Reclamation as well as two alternative plans, one founded purely on existing priority‐based water rights and another geared toward minimizing the effects of flow augmentations on farms profitability. Results from a basin‐wide model of agricultural production in the Snake River Basin, the Snake River Agricultural Model, present evidence that (1) older water rights are used towards production of less valuable crops, (2) flow augmentation scenarios have unequal effects on farms profitability across agricultural regions within the basin, and (3) irrigation water is valued from US$4 to US$59 an acre‐foot.     

A GAME THEORY APPROACH TO DECIDING WHO WILL SUPPLY INSTREAM FLOW WATER1

ABSTRACT: The resource management problem for the Middle Platte ecosystem is the insufficient water available to meet both instream ecological demands and out‐of‐stream economic needs. This problem of multiple interest groups competing for a limited resource is compounded by sharp disagreement in the scientific community over endangered species' needs for instream flows. In this study, game theory was used to address one dimension of this resource management problem. A sequential auction with repeated bidding was used to determine how much instream flow water each of three states — Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming — will provide and at what price. The results suggest that the use of auction mechanisms can improve the prospects for reaching a multi‐state agreement on who will supply instream flow water, if the auction is structured to discourage misrepresentation of costs and if political compensation is allowed.     

CONSUMPTIVE USE OF STREAMFLOW INCREASES IN THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This study examined the disposition of streamflow increases that could be created by vegetation management on forest land along the upper reaches of the Colorado River. A network optimization model was used to simulate water flow, storage, consumptive use, and loss within the entire Colorado River Basin with and without the flow increases, according to various scenarios incorporating both current and future consumptive use levels as well as existing and potential institutional constraints. Results indicate that very little of the flow increases would be consumptively used at current use levels, or even at future use levels, if water allocation institutions remain unchanged. Given future use levels and economically based water allocation institutions, up to one-half of the flow increases could be consumptively used. The timing of streamflow increases, and the institutional constraints on water allocation, often limit the potential for consumptive use of flow increases.     

IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The impacts of a severe sustained drought on Colorado River system water resources were investigated by simulating the physical and institutional constraints within the Colorado River Basin and testing the response of the system to different hydrologic scenarios. Simulations using Hydrosphere's Colorado River Model compared a 38-year severe sustained drought derived from 500 years of reconstructed streamflows for the Colorado River basin with a 38-year streamflow trace extracted from the recent historic record. The impacts of the severe drought on streamflows, water allocation, storage, hydropower generation, and salinity were assessed. Estimated deliveries to consumptive uses in the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and northern Arizona were heavily affected by the severe drought, while the Lower Basin states of California, Nevada, and Arizona suffered only slight shortages. Upper Basin reservoirs and streamflows were also more heavily affected than those in the Lower Basin by the severe drought. System-wide, total hydropower generation was 84 percent less in the drought scenario than in the historical stream-flow scenario. Annual, flow-weighted salinity below Lake Mead exceeded 1200 ppm for six years during the deepest portion of the severe drought. The salinity levels in the historical hydrology scenario never exceeded 1100 ppm.     

Land Resources Allocation Strategies in an Urban Area Involving Uncertainty: A Case Study of Suzhou,in the Yangtze River Delta of China

A large number of mathematical models have been developed to support land resource allocation decisions and land management needs; however, few of them can address various uncertainties that exist in relation to many factors presented in such decisions (e.g., land resource availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and social demands, as well as ecological requirements). In this study, a multi-objective interval-stochastic land resource allocation model (MOISLAM) was developed for tackling uncertainty that presents as discrete intervals and/or probability distributions. The developed model improves upon the existing multi-objective programming and inexact optimization approaches. The MOISLAM not only considers economic factors, but also involves food security and eco-environmental constraints; it can, therefore, effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land resource management system. Moreover, the model can also help examine the reliability of satisfying (or the risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. In this study, the MOISLAM was applied to a real case of long-term urban land resource allocation planning in Suzhou, in the Yangtze River Delta of China. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation were obtained. The results are considered useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify a desirable land resource allocation strategy under uncertainty.     

Adaptive management on the central Platte River--science, engineering, and decision analysis to assist in the recovery of four species

Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions.     

An ecosystem approach to analyse the livelihood of fishers of the Old Brahmaputra River in Mymensingh region,Bangladesh

This paper applies an ecosystem approach to analyse the livelihood of fishers dependent on the Old Brahmaputra River in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. Results suggest that the livelihood of fishers is increasingly threatened because of the fragile river ecosystem and poor livelihood assets. Most fishers face a wide range of vulnerability including shocks, trends and seasonality. This is because the ecosystem of the resource base on which their livelihood depends (i.e. the Old Brahmaputra River) has been degraded severely resulting in a significant decline in fish catch due to a combination of factors, such as over-fishing, use of destructive fishing gears, water pollution, siltation, rapid urbanisation and environmental degradation. We propose an adoption of the socio-ecological system with active community participation in the management of the resource base and collaboration amongst key stakeholders to produce positive livelihood outcomes for the fishers.     

Cutting the cake: Supporting environmental fund allocation decisions

This paper describes a decision support model for allocating financial resources amongst multiple user groups in environmental management problems. The model is based on the multiple criteria analysis (MCA) method of compromise programming. It was used to inform the allocation of Natural Heritage Trust funds across 14 regions in Queensland, Australia. The model targets funding to those regions with greater natural resource management needs. Need is determined by 19 weighted criteria relating to natural resource assets and threats. The model was accepted by the Australian Government, Queensland Government and regional groups as an appropriate means for allocating program funds; first in 2005 and then again, with improvements, in 2007. This paper shows that an MCA model can improve the transparency, auditability and acceptance of allocation decisions which would otherwise be heavily politicised.