THE TREE-RING RECORD OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: Frequent and persistent droughts exacerbate the problems caused by the inherent scarcity of water in the semiarid to arid parts of the southwestern United States. The occurrence of drought is driven by climatic variability, which for years before about the beginning of the 20th century in the Southwest must be inferred from proxy records. As part of a multidisciplinary study of the potential hydrologic impact of severe sustained drought on the Colorado River, the physical basis and limitations of tree rings as indicators of severe sustained drought are reviewed, and tree-ring data are analyzed to delineate a “worst-case” drought scenario for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Runs analysis of a 121-site tree-ring network, 1600–1962, identifies a four-year drought in the 1660s as the longest-duration large-scale drought in the Southwest in the recent tree-ring record. Longer tree-ring records suggest a much longer and more severe drought in 1579–1598. The regression estimate of the mean annual Colorado River flow for this period is 10.95 million acre-feet, or 81 percent of the long-term mean. The estimated flows for the 1500s should be used with caution in impact studies because sample size is small and some reconstructed values are extrapolations.     

SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT CASE STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20–25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low-to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from “business as usual” with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.     

MITIGATING IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated the effects of institutional responses developed for coping with a severe sustained drought (SSD) in the Colorado River Basin on selected system variables using a SSD inflow hydrology derived from the drought which occurred in the Colorado River basin from 1579–1616. Institutional responses considered are reverse equalization, salinity reduction, minimum flow requirements, and temporary suspension of the delivery obligation of the Colorado River Compact. Selected system variables (reservoir contents, streamflows, consumptive uses, salinity, and power generation) from scenarios incorporating the drought-coping responses were compared to those from Baseline conditions using the current operating criteria. The coping responses successfully mitigated some impacts of the SSD on consumptive uses in the Upper Basin with only slight impacts on consumptive uses in the Lower Basin, and successfully maintained specified minimum streamflows throughout the drought with no apparent effect on consumptive uses. The impacts of the coping responses on other system variables were not as clear cut. We also assessed the effects of the drought-coping responses to normal and wet hydrologic conditions to determine if they were overly conservative. The results show that the rules would have inconsequential effects on the system during normal and wet years.     

HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the risk of drought and develops drought scenarios for use in the study of severe sustained drought in the Southwestern United States. The focus is on the Colorado River Basin and regions to which Colorado River water is exported, especially southern California, which depends on water from the Colorado River. Drought scenarios are developed using estimates of unimpaired historic streamflow as well as reconstructions of streamflow based on tree ring widths. Drought scenarios in the Colorado River Basin are defined on the basis of annual flow at Lees Ferry. The risk, in terms of return period, of the drought scenarios developed, is assessed using stochastic models.     

COPING WITH A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON THE COLORADO RWER: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW1

ABSTRACT: In arid regions of rapid economic and population growth, adverse effects of droughts are likely to be increasingly serious. This article presents an introduction and overview of the papers collected in this special issue of the Water Resources Bulletin. The papers report on the second phase of a study of the impacts of and responses to a potential severe sustained drought in the Colorado River Basin in the southwestern U.S. The analyses were performed by a consortium of researchers from universities and the private sector located throughout the Basin. Tree ring studies suggest that droughts of duration and magnitude much more serious than any found in the modern records probably occurred in the Basin during earlier centuries. Taking the present-day configuration of the storage and diversion structures and the economic conditions in the Basin as the base-point, the general objectives of the study are three: first, to define a representative Severe Sustained Drought (SSD) and assess its hydrologic impacts; second, to forecast the economic, social and environmental impacts on the southwestern U.S.; and finally, to assess alternative institutional arrangements for coping with an SSD. The evaluation of impacts and policies was conducted with two distinct modeling approaches. One involved hydrologic-economic optimization modeling where water allocation institutions are decision variables. The second was a simulation-gaming approach which allowed “players” representing each basin state to interact in a real-time decision making mode in response to the unfolding drought.     

THE LAW OF THE COLORADO RIVER: COPING WITH SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: The waters of the Colorado River are divided among seven states according to a complex ‘Law of the River’ drawn from interstate compacts, international treaties, statutes, and regulations. The Law of the River creates certain priorities among the states and the Republic of Mexico, and in the event of a severe sustained drought, the Law of the River dictates the distribution of water and operation of the elaborate reservoir system. Earlier work indicated that there is remarkable resilience in the system for established uses of water in the Lower Basin of the Colorado River. This work shows, based on an application of the Law of the River using computer modeling of operations of facilities on the Colorado River, that there may be serious environmental consequences and related legal restraints on how the water is used in times of shortage and that the existing legal and institutional framework governing the Colorado River does not adequately address all the issues that would be raised in a severe sustained drought. Several possible legal options for dealing with drought in the context of the Law of the River are identified.     

PLANNING FOR DROUGHT: THE ROLE OF STATE GOVERNMENT1

ABSTRACT: Although droughts are a frequent occurrence over much of the United States, response by state and federal government has been ineffective and poorly coordinated. Recently, several states have recognized the value of drought emergency planning and have developed plans to assist them in responding more effectively to prolonged periods of water shortage. These states have created an organizational structure to coordinate the assessment and response activities of state and federal agencies. Each state's drought response plan is unique since each state's water supply and management problems, and their consequent impacts, are unique. The drought response plans developed by Colorado, South Dakota and New York are reviewed here in detail. We recommend that other states affected by frequent and severe water shortages also develop drought emergency plans. These plans will enhance state government's ability to implement effective measures in a timely manner and, ultimately, may provide added incentive for the federal government to develop the national drought response plan called for by the General Accounting Office in 1979.     

EFFECTS OF BASIN-SCALE TIMBER HARVEST ON WATER YIELD AND PEAK STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: Streamflow changes resulting from clearcut harvest of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) on a 2145 hectare drainage basin are evaluated by the paired watershed technique. Thirty years of continuous daily streamflow records were used in the analysis, including 10 pre-harvest and 20 post-harvest years of data. Regression analysis was used to estimate the effects of timber harvest on annual water yield and annual peak discharge. Removal of 14 million board feet of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) from about 526 hectares (25 percent of the basin) produced an average of 14.7 cm additional water yield per year, or an increase of 52 percent. Mean annual daily maximum discharge also increased by 1.6 cubic meters per second or 66 percent. Increases occurred primarily during the period of May through August with little or no change in wintertime streamflows. Results suggest that clearcutting conifers in relatively large watersheds (> 2000 ha) may produce significant increases in water yield and flooding. Implications of altered streamflow regimes are important for assessing the future ecological integrity of stream ecosystems subject to large-scale timber harvest and other disturbances that remove a substantial proportion of the forest cover.     

HYDROLOGIC AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DROUGHT UNDER ALTERNATWE POLICY RESPONSES1

ABSTRACT: A severe sustained drought in the Colorado River Basin would cause economic damages throughout the Basin. An integrated hydrologic-economic-institutional model introduced here shows that consumptive water users in headwaters states are particularly vulnerable to very large shortfalls and hence large damages because their rights are effectively junior to downstream users. Chronic shortfalls to consumptive users relying on diversions in excess of rights under the Colorado River Compact are also possible. Nonconsumptive water uses (for hydropower and recreation) are severely affected during the worst drought years as instream flows are reduced and reservoirs are depleted. Damages to these uses exceeds those to consumptive uses, with the value of lost hydropower production the single largest economic impact of a severe sustained drought. Modeling of alternative policy responses to drought suggests three general policy approaches with particular promise for reducing damages. Consumptive use damages can be reduced by over 90 percent through reallocation from low to high valued uses and through reservoir storage strategies which minimize evaporation losses. Reservoir management to preserve minimum power pool levels for hydropower production (and to maintain reservoir recreation) may reduce damages to these nonconsumptive uses by over 30 percent, but it may increase consumptive use shortfalls.     

DROUGHT EPISODES MANAGEMENT: THE ROLE OF PRICE1

ABSTRACT: Municipal water utilities, when faced with drought conditions, typically impose a temporary water use restrictions program to achieve conservation goals. If water is sufficiently price-elastic, however, at least some of the problems associated with restrictions can be avoided by imposing a drought surcharge and allowing users to adjust voluntarily. This paper develops two sources of evidence on price elasticity in Honolulu, Hawaii, with the evidence suggesting that a drought surcharge will induce much of the desired conservation, especially when used with educational publicity.     

NONPARAMETRIC APPROACHES TO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: The interesting developments in non-parainetric testing and estimation methods presented in the upcoming sequence of nine papers are evaluated, compared, and put into proper perspective. Because a deterioration in water quality constitutes a direct threat to human health, it is of utmost importance to have flexible non-parametric methods available for detecting and describing trends in water quality time series. A distinct advantage of nonparametric tests is that they are usually very effective when applied to “messy” environmental data which may, for example, contain many missing observations and not be normally distributed. By applying their enhanced approaches for nonparametric methods to water quality time series, as well as employing well designed simulation experiments, the authors of the papers clearly demonstrate the efficacy of utilizing nonparametric tests in environmental impact assessment.     

REVIEW OF DETERMINATION OF INSTREAM FLOW REQUIREMENTS WITH SPECIAL APPLICATION TO AUSTRALIA1

ABSTRACT: A critical examination of the techniques used to assess and specify environmental instream flow requirements is provided. The strengths and weaknesses of individual techniques are evaluated on both an absolute and a comparative basis. Particular attention is given to the problem of specifying environmental flow requirements in Australia where the hydrology has distinctly different characteristics to those in countries where most of the models for prediction of instream flow requirements were developed. Broad recommendations as to the suitability and use of the different techniques for different conditions are provided.     

A GAMING EVALUATION OF COLORADO RWER DROUGHT MANAGEMENT INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Researchers representing each of the Colorado River Basin states as well as the Secretary of the Interior were presented with an interactive computer simulation of a progressively increasing drought and were given the collective opportunity to change the ways in which basin-wide and within-state water management were conducted. The purpose of this “gaming” exercise was to identify rules for managing the Colorado River which are effective in preventing drought-caused damages to basin water users. This water management game was conducted three times, varying the collective choice roles for management of the river yet staying substantially within the current institution for management of the Colorado River known as the “Law of the River.” The Law of the River was quite effective in minimizing drought impacts upon consumptive water uses. Additional effective drought-coping measures to protect consumptive uses consisted mostly of intrastate water management improvements which states were able to implement independently. The Law of the River did not protect non-consumptive water uses, such as hydroelectric power generation, water-based recreation, endangered species, and water quality from drought, as well as it protected consumptive water uses. Players reached collective choice decisions to cope with rising salinity, equalize storage between the upper and lower basins, and protect endangered species. While these measures had some success, only reductions in withdrawals for consumptive uses, particularly in the upper basin, could have substantially lessened adverse impacts.     

ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF GROUND WATER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY DECISIONS1

ABSTRACT: The full range of environmental and economic services of ground water need to be accounted for in policy decisions. Non-recognition of these services imputes a lower value for the ground water resource in establishing policies. We describe a conceptual framework for identifying and measuring the economic value of groundwater. The valuation framework links changes in physical characteristics of ground water to services provided by ground water and the economic effects of changes in ground water services. In addition to the framework, we develop a general protocol to follow for assessing the benefits of ground water policies. Application of the protocol will aid in establishing structure and consistency across policy assessments and improve the accuracy and completeness of benefit estimates, avoid double-counting problems, and eliminate duplication of ground water valuation efforts.     

A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF DRAINAGE AND HARVESTING ON WATER QUALITY IN OMBROTROPHIC BOGS NEAR SEPT-ILES,QUEBEC1

ABSTRACT: Runoff and ground-water samples were collected from four ombrotrophic bogs, representing undisturbed and drained/harvested conditions, at two-week intervals during the summer of 1984. Analyses of samples for water quality parameters revealed significant (P < 0.05 level) increases in specific conductance, NH4⁺-N, total dissolved P, Mg, K, and Na and a decrease in the E₄:E₆ ratio (suggesting increased proportions of humic acid) associated with drainage. There were no significant changes in dissolved organic carbon, Ca concentrations, or pH. Comparison of samples collected before, during, and after ditching showed increases in the dissolved organic carbon, NH₄⁺-N, total dissolved P, K, and Na and a decrease in the E₄:E₆ ratio, but these changes were short lived; water quality returned to preditching values after about a week. The observed changes in water quality are small, probably because the peat is very acid (pH 3.0 to 4.5).     

STATE ACTIONS TO MITIGATE DROUGHT LESSONS LEARNED1

ABSTRACT: Drought has been a common feature in the United States during the past decade and has resulted in significant economic, social, and environmental impacts in virtually all parts of the nation. The purpose of this paper is two fold. First, the status of state drought planning is discussed to illustrate the significant increase in the number of states that have prepared response plans - from three states in 1982 to 27 in 1997. In addition, six states are now in various stages of plan development. Second, mitigative actions implemented by states in response to the series of severe drought years since 1986 are summarized. This information was obtained through a survey of states. The study concludes that states have made significant progress in addressing drought-related issues and concerns through the planning process. However, existing plans are still largely reactive in nature, treating drought in an emergency response mode. Mitigative actions adopted by states provide a unique archive that may be transferable to other states. Incorporating these actions into a more anticipatory, risk management approach to drought management will help states move away from the traditional crisis management approach.     

REGIONAL SCALE TREND MONITORING OF INDICATORS OF TROPHIC CONDITION OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a sample survey design to answer questions about the ecological condition and trends in condition of U.S. ecological resources. To meet the objectives, the design relies on a probability sample of the resource population of interest (e.g., a random sample of lakes) each year on which measurements are made during an index period. Natural spatial and temporal variability and variability in the sampling process all affect the ability to describe the status of a population and the sensitivity for trend detection. We describe the important components of variance and estimate their magnitude for indicators of trophic condition of lakes to illustrate the process. We also describe models for trend detection and use them to demonstrate the sensitivity of the proposed design to detect trends. If the variance structure that develops during the probability surveys is like that synthesized from available databases and the literature, then the trends in common indicators of trophic condition of the specified magnitude should be detectable within about a decade for Secchi disk transparency (0.5–1 percentiyear) and total phosphorus (2–3 percent/year), but not for chlorophyll-a (> 3–4 percent/year), which will take longer.     

MUNICIPAL WATER USE AND WATER RATES DRIVEN BY SEVERE DROUGHT: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper synthesizes and interprets data pertaining to the evolution of average water revenue, water use, and the average cost of water supply in the City of Santa Barbara, California, from 1986 to 1996, a period which included one of the most devastating droughts in California this century. The 1987–1992 drought hit the study area particularly hard. The City of Santa Barbara was dependent exclusively on local sources for its water supply. That made it vulnerable as the regional climate is prone to extreme variability and recurrent droughts. The 1986–1992 drought provided a rare opportunity to assess the sensitivity of municipal water use to pricing, conservation, and other water management measures under extreme drought conditions. Our analysis indicates that the average cost of water rose more than three-fold in real terms from 1986 to 1996, while the gap between the average cost of supply and the average revenue per unit of water (= 100 cubic feet) rose in real terms from $0.14 in 1986 to $ 0.75 in 1996. The rise of $3.08 in the average cost of supplying one unit of water between 1986 and 1996 measures the cost of hedging drought risk in the study area. Water use dropped 46 percent at the height of the drought relative to pro-drought water use, and remains at 61 percent of the pre-drought level. The data derived from the 1987–1992 California drought are unique and valuable insofar as shedding light on drought/water demand adaptive interactions. The experience garnered on drought management during that unique period points to the possibilities available for future water management in the Arid West where dwindling water supplies and burgeoning populations are facts that we must deal with.     

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX AS A MEASURE OF HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is perhaps the most widely used regional drought index. However, there is considerable ambiguity about its value as a measure of hydrologic drought. In this paper the PDSI for climatic divisions in New Jersey is compared to the occurrence within each climatic division of streamflows in their lower quartile for the month (streamflow index), and ground-water levels in their lower quartile for the month (ground-water index). These indices are found to have distinct properties. It is not uncommon for PDSI values to indicate “severe” or “extreme” drought at times when the streamflow or groundwater index is above its lower quartile at many stations within the climatic division. The PDSI values and groundwater index indicate more persistent subnormal conditions than the streamflow index for truncation levels yielding the same total duration of drought over a period. The ground-water index tends to indicate a later beginning to droughts and of the three indices is the most conservative indicator of a drought's end. Drought timing and duration properties for the ground-water index are found to be highly influenced by the average depth to water in the well. Overall, the three indices of drought can provide three very different characterizations of drought. In particular, the results indicate that considerable caution should be exercised in drawing conclusions about hydrologic drought from the PDSI.     

EFFECTIVENESS OF DROUGHT POLICIES FOR MUNICIPAL WATER MANAGEMENT1

During the 1976–77 drought, three principal mechanisms were used to reduce water use in Utah communities: price increases, maximum monthly use restrictions, and restrictions on outdoor watering times. A regression model was developed to explain observed changes in water use, with price, type of restriction, household size, and summer rainfall as independent variables. For an average system, a 1 percent increase in price would reduce water use by 0.07 to 0.09 percent. A 1 percent increase in outdoor watering time restriction reduces use by 0.064 to 0.075 percent. A 1 percent increase in quantity restrictions leads to a reduction in water use of 0.014 to 0.054 percent. The effectiveness of rationing policies is influenced by system characteristics. For example, outdoor watering time restrictions were less effective in systems with above average household size and below average monthly use.