EFFECTS OF INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF PRECIPITATION ON STREAM DISCHARGE FROM RHODE RIVER SUBWATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationships between precipitation at the seasonal and annual scale and water discharge per surface area for seven contiguous first - and second-order tributaries of the Rhode River, a small tidal tributary to Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, USA. The goal was to quantify the effects of a wide range of precipitation, representative of inter-annual variations in weather in this region. The discharges measured included both overland storm flows and groundwater, since the aquifers were perched on a clay aquiclude. Precipitation varied from 824 to 1684 mm/yr and area-weighted Rhode River watershed discharge varied from 130 to 669 mm/yr with an average of 332 mm/yr or 29.1 percent of average precipitation. Average annual dis. charges from three first-order watersheds were significantly lower per surface area and varied from 16.0 to 21.9 percent of precipitation. Winter season precipitation varied from 125 to 541 mm. Area-weighted Rhode River winter discharge varied from 26.3 to 230 mm with an average of 115 mm or 43.9 percent of average precipitation. Spring season precipitation varied from 124 to 510 mm and watershed discharge varied from 40.0 to 321 mm with an average of 138 mm or 46.9 percent of average precipitation. In the summer and fall seasons, watershed discharge averaged 40.6 and 40.9 mm or 13.5 and 14.3 percent of average precipitation, respectively. Except in winter, the proportion of precipitation discharged in the streams increased rapidly with increasing volume of precipitation. Stream order showed a higher correlation with volume of discharge than vegetative cover on the watershed.     

A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM TO PREDICT NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION POTENTIAL1

ABSTRACT: Bacterial densities (total coliform, fecal coliform, and fecal streptococci) and suspended solids in runoff from a feedlot, pasture, and corn field were measured. Densities of fecal coliform were highest from the feedlot but were 1000 to 10,000 times greater than the water quality standard for swimmable waters from all three land uses. Densities of fecal streptococci were highest from the corn field, which suggests that wildlife are the source of bacteria. Fecal coliform/fecal streptococci ratios distinguished cattle from wildlife as the source of bacterial pollution both among land uses and among seasons of the year. Suspended solids concentrations in runoff ranged from 423 to 925 mg/l and were highest from the corn field. A Geographic Information System (GIS), which utilizes a raster or grid-cell format, was developed to include algorithms associated with non-point source pollution. The system accepts digitally mapped information on soil type, topography, and land use. It calculates characteristics such as slope and slope length, and relates these characteristics to soils and land use parameters in order to produce three dimensional maps of runoff potential, sediment pollution potential, and bacterial pollution potential. It offers the advantages of retaining the geographic character of pollution potential information and of conveying in three-dimensional graphical terms the effects of topography, soil type, land use, and land management practices.     

Process-based calibration of WRF-Hydro in a mountainous basin in southwestern U.S.

The National Water Model (NWM) will provide the next generation of operational streamflow forecasts across the United States (U.S.) using the WRF-Hydro hydrologic model. In this study, we propose a strategy to calibrate 10 parameters of WRF-Hydro that control runoff generation during floods and snowmelt seasons, and due to baseflow. We focus on the Oak Creek Basin (820 km²), an unregulated mountainous sub-watershed of the Salt and Verde River Basins in Arizona, which are the largest source of water supply for the Phoenix Metropolitan area. We calibrate the model against discharge observations at the outlet in 2008–2011, and validate it at two stream gauging stations in 2012–2016. After bias correcting the precipitation forcings, we sequentially modify the model parameters controlling distinct runoff generation processes in the basin. We find that capturing the deep drainage to the aquifer is crucial to improve the simulation of all processes and that this flux is mainly controlled by the SLOPE parameter. Performance metrics indicate that snowmelt, baseflow, and floods due to winter storms are simulated fairly well, while flood peaks caused by summer thunderstorms are severely underestimated. We suggest the use of spatially variable soil depth to enhance the simulation of these processes. This work supports the ongoing calibration effort of the NWM by testing WRF-Hydro in a watershed with a large variety of runoff mechanisms that are representative of several basins in the southwestern U.S.     

CONCENTRATION AND SOURCES OF FECAL AND ORGANIC POLLUTION IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Fecal contamination and organic pollution of an agricultural drainage in northeast Indiana was high. Bacterial counts (total coliform, TC; fecal coliform, FC; and fecal streptococcus, FS) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) were used to assess waste concentrations. Coliform counts indicated that sections of the drainage receiving septic effluent had waste concentrations far in excess of public health standards (mean FC = 550,000/100 ml). Areas of drainage remote from septic tank pollution were found to occasionally meet federal public health standards for whole body contact recreation but generally these areas had twice the allowable limit of 200 FC/100 ml. Bacterial contamination was highest during runoff events when the median values for TC, FC, and FS were 5, 3, and 17 times greater, respectively, than the median values during low stream discharge. Surface flows carried contaminants from unconfined livestock operations and fecally contaminated sediment was transported by high waters. During one runoff event a BOD loading of 36.7 kg/km² was recorded and the peak BOD concentration observed was 16 mg/l. A discharge of liquid manure from a confined livestock operation caused a major fish kill. Pollution from septic tanks and unconfined livestock is greatest at high stream discharge when dilution reduces the impact on aquatic life.     

Hydrological Variability and Uncertainty of Lower Missouri River Basin Under Changing Climate

The lower Missouri River Basin has experienced increasing streamflow and flooding events, with higher risk of extreme hydrologic impacts under changing climate. The newly available North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate projections were used as atmospheric forcing for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which runs with varying potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods to assess the hydrological change and uncertainty of 2040‐2069 over 1968‐1997. The NARCCAP temperature and precipitation predictions were refined using a bias correction method. The results show that, following the seasonal variability of precipitation, various water fluxes would increase in most seasons except the summer. Expected precipitation tends to increase in intensity with little change in frequency, triggering faster surface water concentration to form floods. The greatest streamflow increase would occur from November to February, increasing by around 10% on average. An increase of 3% occurs in the other months except for July and August in which river discharge decreases by around 2%. The climate predictions contribute more uncertainty annually, but PET algorithms gain more influence in winter or when other weather factors such as wind play a relatively more important role on evapotranspiration flux. This study predicts an even wetter environment compared to the historically very wet period, with the possibility of more flooding.     

DAM‐INDUCED MODIFICATIONS TO UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER STREAMFLOW PATTERNS AND THEIR BIODIVERSITY IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: This study evaluates the streamflow characteristics of the upper Allegheny River during the periods preceding (1936 to 1965) and following (1966 to 1997) completion of the Kinzua Dam in northwestern Pennsylvania. Inter‐period trends in seasonal patterns of discharge and peak flow at three downstream sites are compared to those at two upstream sites to determine the influence of this large dam on surface water hydrology. Climatic records indicate that significant changes in annual total and seasonal precipitation occurred over the twentieth century. Increased runoff during the late summer through early winter led to increased discharge both upstream and downstream during these months, while slightly less early‐year rainfall produced minor reductions in spring flood peaks since 1966. The Kinzua Dam significantly enhanced these trends downstream, creating large reductions in peak flow, while greatly augmenting low flow during the growing season. This reduction in streamflow variability, coupled with other dam‐induced changes, has important biodiversity implications. The downstream riparian zone contains numerous threatened/endangered species, many of which are sensitive to the type of habitat modifications produced by the dam. Flood dynamics under the current post‐dam conditions are likely to compound the difficulties of maintaining their long‐term viability.     

PREDICTING FECAL COLIFORM BACTERIA LEVELS IN THE CHARLES RIVER,MASSACHUSETTS, USA1

In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river's health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R²s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs.     

TRANSPORT OF SEDIMENT-BOUND ORGANOCHLORINE PESTICIDES TO THE SAN JOAQUIN RWER,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Suspended sediment samples were collected in west-side tributaries and the main stem of the San Joaquin River, California, in June 1994 during the irrigation season and in January 1995 during a winter storm. These samples were analyzed for 15 organochiorine pesticides to determine their occurrence and their concentrations on suspended sediment and to compare transport during the irrigation season (April to September) to transport during winter storm runoff (October to March). Ten organochiorine pesticides were detected during the winter storm runoff; seven during the irrigation season. The most frequently detected organochlorine pesticides during both sampling periods were p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, dieldrin, toxaphene, and chiordane. Dissolved samples were analyzed for three organochiorine pesticides during the irrigation season and for 15 during the winter storm. Most calculated total concentrations of p,p-DDT, chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene exceeded chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life. At eight sites in common between sampling periods, suspended sediment concentrations and streamfiow were greater during the winter storm runoff - median concentration of 3,590 mg/L versus 489 mg(L and median streamfiow of 162 ft³/s versus 11 ft³/s. Median concentrations of total DDT (sum of p,p'-DDD, p,p-DDE, and p,p'-DDT), chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene on suspended sediment were slightly greater during the irrigation season, but instantaneous loads of organochlorine pesticides at the time of sampling were substantially greater during the winter storm. Estimated loads for the entire irrigation season exceeded estimated loads for the January 1995 storm by about 2 to 4 times for suspended transport and about 3 to 11 times for total transport. However, because the mean annual winter runoff is about 2 to 4 times greater than the runoff during the January 1995 storm, mean winter transport may be similar to irrigation season transport. This conclusion is tentative primarily because of insufficient information on long-term seasonal variations in suspended sediment and organochlorine concentrations. Nevertheless, runoff from infrequent winter storms will continue to deliver a significant load of sediment-bound organochiorine pesticides to the San Joaquin River even if irrigation-induced sediment transport is reduced. As a result, concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in San Joaquin River biota will continue to be relatively high compared to other regions of the United States.     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2°C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring, summer, or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only, to fall months only, and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff, such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt, may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition, relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation, once it is established, can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models.     

Temporal variation and persistence of bacteria in streams

Better understanding of bacterial fate and transport in watersheds is necessary for improved regulatory management of impaired streams. Novel statistical time series analyses of coliform data can be a useful tool for evaluating the dynamics of temporal variation and persistence of bacteria within a watershed. For this study, daily total coliform data for the Little River in East Tennessee from 1 Oct. 2000 to 31 Dec. 2005 were evaluated using novel time series techniques. The objective of this study was to analyze the total coliform concentration data to: (i) evaluate the temporal variation of the total coliform, and (ii) determine whether the total coliform concentration data demonstrated any long-term or short-term persistence. For robust analysis and comparison, both time domain and frequency domain approaches were used for the analysis. In the time domain, an autoregressive moving average approach was used; whereas in the frequency domain, spectral analysis was applied. As expected, the analyses showed that total coliform concentrations were higher in summer months and lower in winter months. However, the more interesting results showed that the total coliform concentration exhibited short-term as well as long-term persistence ranging from about 4 wk to approximately 1 yr, respectively. Comparison of the total coliform data to hydrologic data indicated both runoff and baseflow are responsible for the persistence.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

THE ATMOSPHERIC WATER BALANCE AND THE HYDROLOGY OF LARGE RIVER BASINS1

The concept of using the atmospheric water balance technique in the study of the hydrology of large (greater than 10⁵km²) river basins is described. The atmospheric water balance technique consists of determining the spacial and time distributions and fluxes of water vapor through the atmospheric volume overlying the basin. The quantity precipitation minus evaporation at the earth's surface is determined as a residual of the computation. A review of the results of various experiments employing this technique is provided. The incorporation of the technique in a study of the hydrology of a large river basin is demonstrated by showing the results of a study of the hydrometeorology of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The example covers the study of eleven winter seasons, November through April, 1957–1968. The seasonal accumulation of water over the basin as determined by the atmospheric water balance is highly correlated with annual runoff. Correlation coefficient r = .8. The daily evaporation rate during dry days varies by a factor of two over the winter season, and is shown to be related to the incoming solar radiation intensity.     

Probabilistic Streamflow Generation Model for Data Sparse Arid Watersheds1

Abstract: The authors present a model that generates streamflow for ephemeral arid streams. The model consists of a stochastic hourly precipitation point process model and a conceptual model that transforms precipitation into flow. It was applied to the Santa Cruz River at the border crossing from Mexico into Southern Arizona. The model was constructed for four different seasons and three categories of inter‐annual variability for the wet seasons of summer and winter. The drainage area is ungauged and precipitation information was inferred from a precipitation gauge downstream. The precipitation gauge record was evaluated against simulated precipitation from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, and was found to be the representative of the regional precipitation variability. The flow generation was found to reproduce the variability in the observed record at the daily, seasonal and annual time scales, and it is suitable for use in planning studies for the study site.     

TRENDS IN FRESHWATER INFLOW TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY FROM TUE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN DELTA1

ABSTRACT: Outflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin river system (Delta outflow) provides about 90 percent of the freshwater flow to San Francisco Bay. Because this river system also supplies most of the water used in California, some believed that annual freshwater flow to the Bay had declined by as much as 50 to 60 percent as water use increased. Consequently, we studied trends in actual Delta outflow and precipitation for the period 1921 to 1986, which is when Delta outflow data are available. We found that there has been no decrease in the annual Delta outflow over this period. In fact, a statistically significant increase in annual Delta outflow of 87 cfa/yr has occurred during the period 1921 to 1986. One reason that Delta outflow has increased is because precipitation has increased faster than water use. Other contributing factors include increased runoff from land use changes, water imports from other areas, and the redistribution of ground water. In addition, statistically significant seasonal trends in Delta outflow were found. Over the period 1921–1986 Delta outflow decreased in April and May and increased from July through November. Changes in other months were not statistically significant. These seasonal changes result primarily from the operation of upstream flood control and water development projects, which store water in the spring and release it in the summer and fall. These seasonal changes are also influenced by a climatic shift that has decreased spring snowmelt runoff and increased late summer through winter precipitation.     

FECAL COLIFORM AND STREPTOCOCCUS CONCENTRATIONS IN RUNOFF FROM GRAZED PASTURES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS1

ABSTRACT: Agricultural practices such as cattle grazing and animal manure application can contribute to relatively high runoff concentrations of fecal coliform (FC) and fecal streptococcus (FS). Available information, however, is inconsistent with respect to the effects of such practices as well as to measures that can discriminate among candidate sources of FC and FS. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of grazing, time of year, and runoff amounts on FC and FS concentrations and to evaluate whether FCIFS concentration ratios are consistent with earlier values reported as characteristic of animal sources. Runoff from four Northwest Arkansas fields was sampled and analyzed for fecal coliform (FC) and fecal streptococcus (FS) for nearly three years (1991–1994). Each field was grazed and fertilized, with two fields receiving inorganic fertilizer and two receiving animal manure. Runoff amount had no effect on runoff concentrations of FC or FS. There were no consistent relationships between the presence of cattle and FC and FS runoff concentrations. Both FC and FS concentrations were affected by the season during which the runoff occurred. Higher concentrations were observed during warmer months. Runoff FC concentrations exceeded the primary contact standard of 200 cfu/100 mL during at least 89 percent of all runoff events and the secondary contact standard of 1000 cfu/100 mL during at least 70 percent of the events. Ratios of FC to FS concentrations varied widely (from near zero to more than 100), confirming earlier findings that FC/FS ratios are not a reliable indicator of the source of FC and FS.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOIL MOISTURE DYNAMICS ON A SEMIARID PONDEROSA PINE HILLSLOPE1

ABSTRACT: Detailed measurements of soil moisture and ET in semiarid forest environments have not been widely reported in the literature. In this study, soil moisture and water balance components were measured over a four‐year period on a semiarid ponderosa pine hillslope, with evapotranspiration (ET) determined as the residual of measured precipitation, runoff, and change in soil moisture storage. ET accounts for approximately 95 percent of the water budget and has a distinctly bimodal annual pattern, with peaks occurring after spring snowmelt and during the late summer monsoon season, periods that coincide with high soil moisture. Weekly growing season ET rates determined by the hillslope water balance are found to be invariably below calculated potential rates. Normalized ET rates are linearly correlated (r²= 0.62) with soil moisture; therefore, a simple linear relation is proposed. Growing season soil moisture dynamics were modeled based on this relation. Results are in fair agreement (r²= 0.63) with the observed soil moisture data over the four growing seasons; however, for two dry summers with little surface runoff, much better results (r² > 0.90) were obtained.     

MODELING FECAL COLIFORM CONTAMINATION IN THE RIO GRANDE1

This study examines sources of fecal coliform in Segment 2302 of the Rio Grande, located south of the International Falcon Reservoir in southern Texas. The watershed is unique because the contributing drainage areas lie in Texas and Mexico. Additionally, the watershed is mostly rural, with populated communities known as “colonias.” The colonias lack sewered systems and discharge sanitary water directly to the ground surface, thus posing an increased health hazard from coliform bacteria. Monitoring data confirm that Segment 2302 is not safe for contact recreation due to elevated fecal coliform levels. The goal of the study was to simulate the observed exceedences in Segment 2302 and evaluate potential strategies for their elimination. Fecal coliform contributions from ranching and colonia discharges were modeled using the Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF). Model results indicated that the regulatory 30‐day geometric mean fecal coliform concentration of 200 colony forming units (cfu) per 100 milliliters is exceeded approximately three times per year for a total of 30 days. Ongoing initiatives to improve wastewater facilities will reduce this to approximately once per year for 14 days. Best management practices will be necessary to reduce cattle access to streams and eliminate all exceedences. The developed model was limited by the relatively sparse flow and fecal coliform data.     

Observed Changes in Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model‐based projections of 21st‐Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.