中国三大粮食作物化肥施用特征及环境风险评价

基于中国三大粮食作物化肥施用强度及配方肥用量核算数据,运用化肥施用环境风险评价模型定量分析了2016年中国三大粮食作物化肥施用特征及其环境风险。结果表明:(1)2016年中国三大粮食作物普遍存在化肥施用过量现象,且不同区域之间单质肥料施用过量程度差异显著,其中,小麦和玉米种植单质肥料存在施用过量的空间范围及过量程度整体上要高于水稻。(2)中国三大粮食作物化肥施用环境风险具有显著的空间差异性,且处于相同风险等级的区域呈现出一定的空间邻近性。(3)中国三大粮食作物总化肥环境风险水平整体较低,但内蒙古、新疆和江苏的小麦种植以及内蒙古、甘肃和湖北等地的玉米种植化肥施用环境风险仍达到了中度或重度风险等级,应成为重点关注的区域。针对当前三大粮食作物化肥施用过量现象严重的问题,政府应当加快三大粮食作物配方肥的推广应用,出台政策措施鼓励企业按大配方生产配方肥,并引导企业在适宜地区进行销售,制定补贴政策以提高农民选用配方肥的积极性,开展科学指导和技术服务以提高农户科学施肥能力和认知水平。     

我国耕地保护的最优化分析

本文把耕地保护置于国民经济发展的框架下,运用经济学、土地资源学原理,构建了我国耕地保护的最优化分析方法。在此基础上,提出了我国耕地保护最佳规模调控指标的具体测算方法,并粗略估算了我国现状及未来半个世纪耕地保护最佳规模调控指标。     

区域PREE系统协调发展的定量描述

本文阐述了区域人口、资源、环境、经济(PREE系统)协调发展的含义,建立了定量描述PREE系统发展的协调度公式,并将其应用于盘锦市,描述了该市的发展状况,对该市今后的发展提出了建议。     

Odontological characteristics of European brown bears from the Central Forest Biosphere Nature Reserve

Forty-five skulls of European brown bears from the Central Forest Nature Reserve and adjacent regions were examined in detail. The frequencies of oligodonty, dental caries, parodontosis, and traumatized teeth were estimated. A total of 12 variants of the tooth formula were described. The sample under study was distinguished from the populations examined previously by the lowest frequency of oligodonty. Dental caries in one or several teeth, caused by mechanical damage or malocclusion, occurred in 14% of animals. Strong wear marks on the canines caused by feeding on oats frequently resulted in broken canines in bears of the senior age groups.     

Evaluation and application of blast furnace slag as a mud cake modifier

The aim of this research was to reuse blast furnace slag (BFS) as a mud cake modifier (MCM) to improve the annular isolation quality in oil and gas wells. For the optimum formula of drilling fluid, the effects of MCM on the drilling fluid rheology were investigated. The relationship between the MCM addition and shear strength at cement–formation interface (SSCFI) was evaluated. The experimental results showed that the optimized formula of the drilling fluid has 1.0 wt% MCM and 0.5 wt% XY-27. The simulation results showed that SSCFI increased significantly with the addition of MCM. Based on the mechanism analysis of BFS as an MCM to improve SSCFI, it is found that the transformation of mud cake to agglomerated cake can be the main reason. The application results showed that the success rate of five wells reached 100%, and the rate of quality in cement was 100%. Especially, the average high quality rate of five wells reached 83.7%. Compared with conventional methods, the average high quality rate is increased by 32.6% points. This research provides a new way for sustainable utilization of BFS.     

The public health threat of phthalate-tainted foodstuffs in Taiwan: The policies the government implemented and the lessons we learned

A major incident of phthalate-contaminated foodstuffs happened in Taiwan between April and July, 2011. Phthalates were deliberately added to foodstuffs as a substitute of emulsifier. We describe the course of this incident, government response and management of the crisis, and its future implications.Five major food categories, including sports drinks, fruit beverages, tea drinks, fruit jam or jelly, and health food or supplements in tablet or powder form, were contaminated with Di-(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate and/or Di-isononyl phthalate. At least 900 different food products were affected.Like the scandal of melamine-tainted infant formula, this event represents another large deliberate food contamination incident. It is important to be reminded that many governments in developing countries make rapid economic growth as their first priority, often compromising environmental safety and public health. The administration leaders need to find a balance between economic expansion and health and environmental safety.     

ImPACTS框架下西北典型生态经济问题研究综述

与传统学科界限鲜明不同,生态经济学强调跨学科交叉研究,注重让问题来决定研究工具集,而不是由研究工具来决定合适的对象。由于生态经济问题涉及生态系统与社会经济系统,研究对象属性多样、关系复杂,既有采用传统意义上的生态经济学方法如生态系统服务价值核算等方法,也包括生活质量、生计途径、消费评估等社会学方法。因此,采取关注学科主要方法发展演化的思路,难以系统地总结生态经济研究进展。我国西北地区生态环境脆弱,经济发展相对落后,无疑是生态经济研究的"天然典型实验场",取得了大量的研究成果。遵循从研究对象出发的思路,采用经典的ImPACTS等式框架,以更宽泛的视野和系统的思维框架综述了西北地区典型生态经济实证研究的思路,即:采用等级层次分析方法研究生态系统和经济系统某个或多个结构性成分及其关系,再用实际结果检验其正确性。综述重要进展包括:可持续性衡量从物质、能量和信息角度开展了水资源承载力、生态足迹、能值与上升性的研究;生态系统服务和自然资本的价值评估开展了条件估值和选择模型,以及环境经济账户、物质流等集成核算工作;人类福利状况评价开展了幸福及生活质量核算工作;开展了生态补偿全流程的实证研究工作;集成模拟模型开展了空间建模环境的构建及简单自然过程的模拟,以LUCC和生态补偿为例进行了较好的自然过程和人文因素相耦合的集成模拟研究;以社会适应性能力作为整体性指标研究了社会资源对水资源的适应作用,将社会资源解耦为文化类型、社会资本和制度三个维度进行实证分析。在此基础上,提出了未来开展研究的建议。     

Phthalates and their metabolites in breast milk--results from the Bavarian Monitoring of Breast Milk (BAMBI)

Phthalates have long been used as plasticizers to soften plastic products and, thus, are ubiquitous in modern life. As part of the Bavarian Monitoring of Breast Milk (BAMBI), we aimed to characterize the exposure of infants to phthalates in Germany. Overall, 15 phthalates, including di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), di-isobutyl phthalate (DiBP), di-isononyl phthalate (DiNP), three primary metabolites of DEHP [mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP), mono-isobutyl phthalate (MiBP), and mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP)], and two secondary metabolites of DEHP were analyzed in 78 breast milk samples. We found median concentrations of 3.9 ng/g for DEHP, 0.8 ng/g for DnBP, and 1.2 ng/g for DiBP, while other parent phthalates were found in only some or none of the samples at levels above the limit of quantitation. In infant formula (n=4) we observed mean values of 19.7 ng/g (DEHP), 3.8 ng/g (DnBP), and 3.6 ng/g (DiBP). For MEHP, MiBP, and MnBP, the median values in breast milk were 2.3 μg/l, 11.8 μg/l, and 2.1 μg/l, respectively. The secondary metabolites were not detected in any samples. Using median and 95th percentile values, we estimated an "average" and "high" daily intake for an exclusively breast-fed infant of 0.6 μg/kg body weight (b.w.) and 2.1 μg/kg b.w., respectively, for DEHP, 0.1 μg/kg b.w. and 0.5 μg/kg b.w. for DnBP, and 0.2 μg/kg b.w. and 0.7 μg/kg b.w. for DiBP. For DiNP, intake values were 3.2 μg/kg b.w. and 6.4 μg/kg b.w., respectively, if all values in milk were set half of the detection limit or the detection limit. The above-mentioned "average" and "high" intake values corresponded to only about 2% to 7%, respectively, of the recommended tolerable daily intake. Thus, it is not likely that an infant's exposure to phthalates from breast milk poses any significant health risk. Nevertheless, other sources of phthalates in this vulnerable phase have to be considered. Moreover, it should be noted that for infants nourished with formula, phthalate intake is of the same magnitude or slightly higher (DEHP) than for exclusively breast-fed infants.     

社会网络异质性对果农有机肥替代化肥技术模式采用行为的影响

研究果农有机肥替代化肥技术采用行为对完善我国化肥减量与有机肥增施政策具有重要的现实意义.基于陕西省苹果种植户的调查数据,分析社会网络异质性对果农有机肥替代化肥技术模式采用行为的影响.研究表明:社会网络异质性对果农有机肥替代化肥技术模式采用的影响存在差异.用果农与亲友邻里的交流程度表征的横向社会网络对果农"有机肥+配方肥"模式的采用有显著正向影响.用果农与肥料零售商的交流程度和是否加入合作社表征的前向和斜向社会网络对果农"有机肥+水肥一体化"模式的采用有显著正向影响.用果农与苹果收购商是否签订销售合同表征的后向社会网络对果农"有机肥+配方肥"及"自然生草+绿肥"模式的采用有显著正向影响,而社会网络对果农"果-沼-畜"模式的采用影响不显著.因此,提出发展合同生产模式、促进果农间互助合作、促进果农与有机肥零售商交流,通过新媒体等信息渠道提高果农有机肥认知,进而促进果农有机肥替代技术模式采用的政策建议.     

南水北调中线工程水源区蒸散发计算方法比较及影响因素分析

以南水北调中线工程水源区为研究区域,采用1961~2007年9个气象站点气象观测数据和黄家港水文站实测径流资料,以FAO彭曼蒙特斯公式和水文模拟法为标准分别对多种潜在蒸散发计算方法和实际蒸散发计算方法进行比较研究,并分析了陆面蒸散发的影响因素。研究表明：南水北调中线工程水源区存在“蒸发悖论”现象,Priestley Taylor公式计算结果偏大,但与FAO 彭曼蒙特斯公式存在良好的相关关系,在气象资料较少时可以考虑建立相关方程进行推求。傅抱璞公式与水文模拟法计算结果较为接近,相关关系最优。潜在蒸散发与平均温度、气温日较差、实际水汽压、降雨量、风速、净太阳辐射、日照时数呈正相关,而实际蒸散发与平均温度、气温日较差、实际水汽压、降雨量、净太阳辐射、日照时数呈正相关,与风速呈负相关。净太阳辐射是影响陆面蒸散发的核心因素     

Climate-induced Changes in Spring Maize Water Requirement in Xiliaohe River Watershed

Xiliaohe River watershed plays an important role in regional and national grain security. With the development of society and economy, water consumption that increased dramatically causes water shortages. Crop water requirement can provide quantitative basis for making regional irrigation scheme. In this study, spring maize water requirement is calculated by using PenmanMonteith formula and spring maize coefficient from May to September at 10 meteorological stations in Xiliaohe River watershed from 1951 to 2005. The variation trend of the spring maize water requirement during the whole growing stage, water requirement in every month, and meteorological influencing factors are obtained by using Mann-Kendall method, and the degree of grey incidence between the water requirement and meteorological influencing factors are shown. The results are the spring maize water requirement during the whole growing stages increases at half of the stations in Xiliaohe River watershed, and are remarkably affected by the water requirement in May. The monthly mean, maximum and minimum air temperature form May to September show an increasing trend in Xiliaohe River watershed in recent 55 years. The monthly mean and minimum air temperature increases notably. The relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed and sunshine show a decreasing trend with variety for different months. The monthly maximum air temperature, wind speed, sunshine and monthly mean air temperature have the highest correlation degree with spring maize water requirement from May to September.     

21世纪初华中地区发展的资源环境基础

作为中国21世纪资源开发的重要场所,华中地区资源环境开发利用将对国家社会经济发展起到举足轻重的作用。对华中地区资源本底特征、人地关系演进状态及发展趋势进行了分析,认 为华中地区拥有较好的资源基础,特别是在水土两大资源的结合方面。但是从现状和未来国家高速工业发展看,未来华中地区自然资源承载负荷将面临较以往更为巨大和更为艰难的挑战。一方面,优越的地理位置使华中地区在国家未来经济发展与资源环境协调过程中的重要地位更为突出,另一方面,当地的人口增长和经济发展同样会对有限的资源基础造成越来越大的压力。因此,区域发展政策应当做出相应调整。     

城市的可持续发展警度--以南京为例

城市作为一个“自然-经济-社会”巨复杂系统．它的运行需要进行不断的描述、评价和解释,以供城市发展调控部门进行动态的有效的调控。从而保证城市的可持续发展。在对城市系统发展度、协调度、持续度以及它们相互关系分析的基础上,提出城市可持续发展度的计算公式．并根据城市可持续发展度以及城市发展度、协调度和持续度的整合状态,对城市可持续发展的各种状态进行分析．得出一种警度分析表．为建立城市可持续发展预警系统提供基础。城市可持续发展预警是在城市可持续发展评价的基础上,对城市发展的序参量以及城市可持续发展相态进行预测．并根据预测的结果和城市可持续发展度进行预警。     

山区发展与特色经济研究--以湖北省恩施自治州为例

以湖北省恩施自治州为例，探讨了山区发展特色经济的重要途径。对其资源环境结构与产业结构作了对应分析，得出该区经济发展的优势在“山林”，而不在“耕地”，在地方“特色资源”，而不在“大众资源”。并采取经济区位商法，对本区众多资源进行了优势评价。根据其资源优势特点，指出恩施的优势在“山上”，应走以“绿色农业”为基础、以轻型加工业为主的发展道路，使本地区的经济结构由长期以来的一、二、三产业低位的传统排序逐步变为高层面的二、一、三的新排序。构建符合山区特色的产业结构。     

中国资本回报率:考虑碳减排成本的新核算

对资本回报率进行绿色核算既符合当前绿色发展的新理念,同时也是判断我国经济增长可持续性的重要依据。使用超越对数生产函数估算1960—2014年碳排放的影子价格;利用Hall-Jorgenson租金公式测算剔除碳减排成本的中国资本回报率的动态演变趋势。对中国资本回报率重新估算克服了因忽略碳减排成本而导致的高估,估算结果更加科学可靠。研究结果:(1)中国碳排放的影子价格由1960年的56.34元/t上升到2011年的1651.69/t,根据影子价格计算的碳减排成本占GDP总量的份额年均为31%。(2)不考虑碳减排成本和税收因素的基础资本回报率变动趋势可以划分为三个阶段。1952-1983年为第一阶段,资本回报率在波动中由高位逐步回落。1984—2010年是第二个阶段,基础资本回报率保持平稳。2011年以来是第三个阶段,这一阶段中国的资本回报率呈台阶式下降趋势,特别是2012—2014年,税后的资本回报率已经难以抵补企业投资的机会成本。(3)考虑碳减排成本将导致资本回报率平均下降约12%。其中1960—1975年资本回报率呈下降趋势。1976—2008年资本回报率基本保持稳定,资本回报率平均值为15.2%。2009年以后,资本回报率则表现出逐年下降的趋势,2014年的估算值甚至降为-1%。本文仅考虑了碳减排成本,如果再考虑诸如二氧化硫等废气排放、废水与固废排放的成本后,绿色资本回报率的估算值将更低。建议:在当前的经济形势下,应实施激励企业技术创新以及减税(尤其是生产税)政策遏制资本回报率下降的趋势。另外,需要采取分阶段递增的环境规制政策,逐步实现企业环境外部成本的内部化。     

Derivation of V function for LR 115 SSNTD from its partial sensitivity to 222Rn and its short-lived progeny

Solid-state nuclear track detectors (SSNTDs) have been widely applied for measurements of environmental concentrations of 222Rn and its progeny. The V function for an SSNTD is important for understanding the track development in the SSNTD as well as for real life applications. The partial sensitivity rhoi of the LR 115 detector applied in the bare mode to 222Rn and its short-lived progeny is related to the equilibrium factor F through the proxy equilibrium factor Fp. On the other hand, rhoi is also dependent on the removed active layer thickness during chemical etching, which is related to the V function for the LR 115 detector. In the present paper, the experimentally obtained rhoi values of the LR 115 detector for different removed active layer thickness are used to derive the V function for the LR 115 SSNTD, which took the form of the Durrani--Green's function, i.e., [formula: see text] , with the best-fitted constants as a1=14.23; a2=0.48; a3=5.9 and a4=0.077 (a5=1).     

Negatively-charged air conditions and responses of the human psycho-neuro-endocrino-immune network

BACKGROUND: Against increasing environmental adverse effects on human health such as those associated with water and ground pollution, as well as out- and indoor air conditions, trials were conducted to support and promote human health by improving the indoor air atmosphere. This study was performed to estimate the effect of negatively-charged air conditions on human biological markers related to the psycho-neuro-endocrino-immune (PNEI) network. OBJECTIVES: After construction of negatively-charged experimental rooms (NCRs), healthy volunteers were admitted to these rooms and control rooms (CTRs) and various biological responses were analyzed. METHODS: NCRs were constructed using a fine charcoal coating and applying an electric voltage (72 V) between the backside of walls and the ground. Various biological markers were monitored that related to general conditions, autonomic nervous systems, stress markers, immunological parameters and blood flow. RESULTS: Regarding the indoor environment, only negatively-charged air resulted in the difference between the CTR and NCR groups. The well-controlled experimental model-room to examine the biological effects of negatively-charged air was therefore established. Among the various parameters, IL-2, IL-4, the mean RR interval of the heart rate, and blood viscosity differed significantly between the CTR and NCR groups. In addition, the following formula was used to detect NCR-biological responses: Biological Response Value (BRV)=0.498+0.0005 [salivary cortisol]+0.072 [IL-2]+0.003 [HRM-SD]-0.013 [blood viscosity]-0.009 [blood sugar]+0.017 [pulse rate]. CONCLUSIONS: Negatively-charged air conditions activated the immune system slightly, smoothened blood flow and stabilized the autonomic nervous system. Although this is the first report to analyze negatively-charged air conditions on human biological responses, the long-term effects should be analyzed for the general use of these artificial atmospheres.     

Experimental investigation of gamma-ray attenuation in Jordanian building materials using HPGe-spectrometer

The capabilities of some building materials used in Jordan to attenuate gamma radiation were tested. Measurements of the attenuation coefficients of limestone, bricks and concrete have been carried out using a HPGe-spectrometer. Narrow beam technique was used, with a multiple gamma radiation source of different energy lines. Results indicate that variations in the attenuation coefficient for all limestone samples, at the same energy line, are within the experimental uncertainties. On the basis of the results achieved, an empirical formula mu(m)=AE(-0.44) was proposed to calculate attenuation at various incident energies. Limestone of average thickness 7cm was found to stop 75% of a gamma beam of energy 662keV. Meanwhile a brick of effective thickness 7cm was found to stop 60% of the same beam. The total attenuation coefficient of concrete calculated at 1333keV was 11.2m(-1), which is less than that of limestone and bricks.     

江西省耕地土壤有效态微量元素含量空间变异特征及其影响因素

采用Pearson相关性分析、Spearman相关性分析、偏相关性分析、方差分析和地统计学方法,对江西省耕地表层(0~20 cm)土壤有效态B、Cu、Fe、Mn和Zn等5种微量元素含量空间变异特征及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明：研究区土壤有效态B、Cu、Fe、Mn和Zn总体处于中等以上水平,B表现为强变异性,其他有效态元素均呈中等变异性。空间结构方面,B、Cu、Fe、Mn和Zn的块金效应值依次为15.68%、12.09%、87.63%、77.98%和25.27%,表明B和Cu具有强烈的空间相关性,Zn呈中等空间相关性,而Fe和Mn空间相关性较弱。空间分布方面,土壤有效B含量表现出“两边低、中间高”的空间分布趋势,Fe、Cu、Zn呈现出较为平滑的空间分布格局,Mn在空间分布上并无明显规律。Pearson相关性分析和偏相关性分析表明5种微量元素之间存在一定的耦合关系但并无直接相关性。Spearman相关性分析和方差分析结果表明,高程、坡度、pH、有机质、全氮、成土母质、地貌类型、土壤类型、灌溉能力、秸秆还田方式和常年耕作制度对5种微量元素含量的空间变异影响显著(P<0.05)。结果可为江西省测土配方施肥卡制定与耕地资源利用与管理及优质高产种植提供可靠参考依据。 关键词： 江西省;微量元素;空间变异;相关性分析;偏相关性分析;影响因素     

On sensitivity analysis: Let’s use it more!

The key factors that influence the population growth rate can be identified with sensitivity analysis. Caswell presented an algorithm based on vector calculus that speeds up, and improves the practicality of the application of the sensitivity analysis, by calculating the derivatives of the explicit elements from the population Leslie matrix. Despite the usefulness of the sensitivity analysis, it is still barely applied to empirical data, partially due to requirements of high quality demographic data and failure of compatibility between time intervals of field data collection and organism’s life stage timing. This can result in the absence of a certain vital rate as a separated element in the population projection matrix, and thus intricacy in obtaining its sensitivity. In this note we call the attention for the applied value of sensitivity analysis, and also we point to a simple formula that is easily implemented in Caswell Matlab algorithm, to calculate the sensitivity of a vital rate that is not explicit as a matrix element.