Meadow birds as indicators

The use of birds as indicators for ‘biological qualities’ is not without risks, and should always be based on a sound knowledge of population dynamics and ecological requirements of the species involved. Meadow birds form a comparatively well-studied group of waders, which breed in Dutch grasslands, heavily influenced by agricultural management. The individual species show different tolerances to intensity levels of management, and can therefore be used as indicators for these levels.     

Impact of Channelization on Oyster Production: A Hydrodynamic-Oyster Population Model for Galveston Bay, Texas

A hydrodynamic-oyster population dynamics model was developed to assess the effect of a change in ship channel configuration under different freshwater inflow regimes and different future hydrologies on oyster (Crassostrea virginica) populations in Galveston Bay, Texas. The population dynamics model includes the effects of environmental conditions, predators, and the oyster parasite Perkinsus marinus on oyster populations. The hydrodynamic model includes the effects of wind stress, river runoff, tides, and oceanic exchange on the circulation of the Bay. Simulations were run for low, mean, and high freshwater inflow conditions under the present (1993) hydrology and predicted hydrologies for 2024 and 2049 that include anticipated water diversion projects to satisfy the freshwater demands of population growth in metropolitan Houston, Texas. Simulation results show that oyster biomass was predicted to increase after enlargement of the ship channel. Oyster biomass is expected to increase on about 53% of total reef acreage when averaged over a 50-yr time span. Oyster reef acreage characterized by increased biomass after channel enlargement increases moderately under the present hydrology and the 2049 hydrology, but decreases slightly in 2024. Lower biomass in 2024 is due to reduced freshwater inflow and increased saltwater intrusion that pushes the optimal areas for oyster growth somewhat farther upbay than in 2049. Declines in oyster biomass, noted in most simulations in downbay reaches, were more than balanced by increased oyster biomass upbay. The differential between upbay and downbay reefs can be explained by an increase in mortality from Perkinsus marinus downbay and saltwater intrusion upbay that expands the area characterized by moderate salinities. The 20th century history of Galveston Bay is one of expansion of isohaline structure and increased oyster production as a result of anthropogenic modification of bay physiography. The salinity gradient of the 1990s, however, is not in equilibrium with the distribution of hard substrate required for oyster growth, that reflects an earlier equilibrium with the pre-1900s hydrodynamics. Increased saltwater intrusion is normally disadvantageous to oyster populations; but, in this case, channel enlargement further expands the salinity gradient upbay and outward (east and west) from the channel. As a result, in most years, oyster biomass is increased because moderate salinities cover more of the pre-1900s reef tracts where hard substrate is plentiful.     

A comparison of rapid and conventional measures of indicator bacteria as predictors of waterborne protozoan pathogen presence and density

E. coli and enterococci in recreational waters are monitored as indicators of fecal contamination, pathogen presence, and health risk. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) tests for fecal indicator bacteria can provide beach managers with same-day information about water quality, unlike culture methods which provide that information the following day. The abilities of qPCR measurements of indicator bacteria, as compared to culture measurements of indicator bacteria, as predictors of pathogen presence or density in surface waters are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to make such comparisons between water samples collected from Chicago area surface waters, including rivers, inland lakes, Lake Michigan, and the Chicago Area Waterways System, which is dominated by wastewater effluent. A total of 294 twenty-litre samples were collected and analyzed for Giardia and Cryptosporidium. qPCR and membrane filtration methods were used to quantify E. coli and enterococci. Correlation, logistic regression, and zero-inflated Poisson modeling were utilized to evaluate associations between indicators and parasites. qPCR and culture measures of the indicator bacteria were similar in their ability to predict parasite presence and density. Correlations between parasites and indicators were generally stronger at waters not dominated by effluent. Associations between indicator density and Giarida presence were observed more consistently than between indicator density and Cryptosporidium presence. Associations between enterococci and parasites were generally stronger than associations between E. coli and parasites. The use of qPCR monitoring in our setting would generate more timely results without compromising the ability to predict parasite presence or density.     

Population Modeling of the Fish Species Roach (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Rutilus rutilus</Emphasis>) to Investigate How Latitudinal Variations in Life History Traits Affect the Sensitivity to Anthropogenic Stress

Anthropogenic stressors, such as pollution and habitat degradation, have affected natural fish populations (and other species) by increased mortality and/or impaired reproduction. Depending on the life history of a population, the sensitivity to a particular stress varies. Demographic population models can be used to evaluate these differences and determine which populations are most sensitive to a specific impact. In the present study, five populations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) with different life histories were modeled and compared for sensitivities to reductions in fecundity or survival. The five populations reflected a north–south gradient with increasing life span, delayed maturity, and reduced fecundity at higher latitudes. Furthermore, three types of population models were used and compared. The population models were an unstructured model, a two-stage model with juveniles and adults and an age-structured model with age-dependent fecundity. The results of the population models showed that populations at higher latitudes are more sensitive to a reduction in survival but less sensitive to a reduction in fecundity. Current methods in ecological risk assessment are based on oversimplifications due to a lack of ecological theory. The use of population models may increase the ecological relevance and help produce better risk assessments. The two-stage model provided results that were similar to the results of the more complex age-structured model in most cases. The unstructured model, however, deviated significantly from the other two models.     

Spatial Economic–Hydroecological Modelling and Evaluation of Land Use Impacts in the Vecht Wetlands Area

Wetlands provide many important goods and services to human societies, and generate nonuse values as well. Wetlands are also very sensitive ecosystems that are subject to much stress from human activities. Reducing the stress on wetlands requires a spatial matching between physical planning, hydrological and ecological processes, and economic activities. Spatially integrated modelling and evaluation can support this. The present study has developed a triple layer model that integrates information and concepts from social and natural sciences to address the analysis and evaluation of land-use scenarios for a wetlands area in the Netherlands, the Vecht area. This is the floodplain of river Vecht, located in the centre of the Netherlands. The study has resulted in a set of linked spatial hydrological, ecological and economic models, formulated at the level of grids and polders. The main activities incorporated in the system of models are housing, infrastructure, agriculture, recreation and nature conservation. The formulation of alternative development scenarios is dominated by land use and land cover options that are consistent with the stimulation of agriculture, nature or recreation. Two aggregate performance indicators have been constructed from model output, namely net present value of changes and environmental quality. The spatial characteristics of these indicators are retained in a spatial evaluation that ranks scenarios.     

沱江流域主要污染负荷预测及时空分布特征

耦合社会-经济因子探究工业点源和生活污染源污染负荷未来变化趋势,可为优化水环境规划和管理方案提供理论依据。选取沱江流域为研究区域,采用经济增长预测法、工业点源传统统计法、人口趋势灰色模型预测法和排污系数法分别计算了2020-2025年该区域28个县(市、区)的工业GDP值,工业点源废水排放量及主要污染负荷(COD、NH₃-N、TN、TP),农村与城镇人口及生活污染源的主要污染负荷,并利用ArcGIS技术探究了工业点源和生活污染源主要污染负荷空间分布特征。结果表明:2020-2025年,工业GDP值总体呈逐年增加趋势,而工业废水排放量总体呈逐年减少趋势,预计到2025年,流域工业GDP值将增加至2.52×10¹²元,而工业废水排放量将减少至0.64×10⁸ t。工业点源主要污染负荷表现为COD>NH₃-N>TN>TP。沱江流域总人口数与生活污染源污染负荷呈逐年增加趋势,其中城镇人口与生活污染源污染负荷呈逐年增加趋势,农村人口与生活污染源污染负荷呈逐年减少趋势,且城镇人口及生活污染源污染负荷增加量大于农村人口及生活污染源污染负荷减少量。城镇、农村生活污染源的主要污染负荷表现为COD>NH₃-N>TN>TP。工业点源和生活污染源主要污染负荷在空间上存在高度异质性。2025年,来自工业点源的主要污染负荷均呈上游较少,中、下游较多的特征;来自城市生活污染源的主要污染负荷均呈中、上游较多,下游较少的特征;来自农村生活污染源的主要污染负荷均呈中游较多,上、下游较少的特征。笔者提出耦合社会-经济因子预测流域污染负荷的方法可以推广到其他与社会经济指标相关联的流域工业点源、生活污染源污染负荷的预测研究中,以期为未来流域水环境管理与治理提供科学参考。     

Application of a Life Cycle Simulation Model to Evaluate Impacts of Water Management and Conservation Actions on an Endangered Population of Chinook Salmon

Fisheries and water resource managers are challenged to maintain stable or increasing populations of Chinook salmon in the face of increasing demand on the water resources and habitats that salmon depend on to complete their life cycle. Alternative management plans are often selected using professional opinion or piecemeal observations in place of integrated quantitative information that could reduce uncertainty in the effects of management plans on population dynamics. We developed a stochastic life cycle simulation model for an endangered population of winter-run Chinook salmon in the Sacramento River, California, USA with the goal of providing managers a tool for more effective decision making and demonstrating the utility of life cycle models for resource management. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the input parameters that influenced variation in salmon escapement were dependent on which age class was examined and their interactions with other inputs (egg mortality, Delta survival, ocean survival). Certain parameters (river migration survival, harvest) that were hypothesized to be important drivers of population dynamics were not identified in sensitivity analysis; however, there was a large amount of uncertainty in the value of these inputs and their error distributions. Thus, the model also was useful in identifying future research directions. Simulation of variation in environmental inputs indicated that escapement was significantly influenced by a 10% change in temperature whereas larger changes in other inputs would be required to influence escapement. The model presented provides an effective demonstration of the utility of life cycle simulation models for decision making and provides fisheries and water managers in the Sacramento system with a quantitative tool to compare the impact of different resource use scenarios.     

Economic Impacts of Changes in Fish Population Dynamics: The Role of the Fishermen’s Harvesting Strategies

Using a bioeconomic model of the cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a coupled stock size–hydrography-based fishing strategy, which attempts to maximize returns from fishing over a given number of fishing periods. Results show that if the fishing strategy is based on a short optimization period of only two fishing periods, changes in population dynamics have a direct influence on the returns from fishing due to the strong pressure on the stocks applied by the fisheries. If the strategy is based on a longer optimization period, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth, which improves the economic performance of the fisheries. However, in that case, the relationship between population dynamics and fishing activities becomes less clear, as even a reduction of the carrying capacities of the two species allows for an increase in the amount of fish landed without causing a stock collapse due to an increased efficiency of fleet utilization. The simulations indicate that management considerations and the time horizon of the fishing strategy dominate the influence of altered population dynamics on the development of the stocks considered in the model.     

基于灰色关联和系统聚类的大连市环境质量影响因素分析

采用灰色关联度和系统聚类分析方法,定量分析大连市社会、经济、自然、人口、能源资源和污染排放等有代表性的指标与生态环境质量的关联程度。结果表明,大连市社会经济发展与环境质量关联度为中等,经济指标与环境质量指标关联度较强,社会、人口、污染排放指标关联度中等,能源和自然指标关联度较弱。金普新区、甘井子区和长兴岛是潜在环境风险区域,需要重点关注环境质量变化趋势。普兰店区、瓦房店市和庄河市虽然属于低排放区域,但环境质量风险相对较大,应进一步加强环境风险管控。     

The impact of FDI in the OECD manufacturing sector on CO2 emission: Evidence and policy issues

This work investigates the sign and the magnitude of the impact Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflowing in the manufacturing sector of the countries from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) exerts on the environment and, specifically, on the amount of CO₂ from sectoral fuel combustion. By gathering data from various international institutions for those countries from 1989 to 2016, an equation model is built to take into separate account technique, scale and cumulative effects of FDI on CO₂ and analysed through the panel data technique. The positive relationships found for all these effects would highlight a detrimental role of FDI on the environment. However, the very low magnitude of the estimated coefficients and the observation that the negative impact of FDI on CO₂ decreases as the scale of its inflow increases, leads to a reconsideration of those arguments against the enforcement of international investment policies in the sector due to the environmental implications generally assumed. This positive environmental spillover is explained by referring to FDI as a driving force of technology innovation and, consequently, a way through which the implementation of more environmentally-friendly and cleaner production modes occurs. Results are consistent across different estimators and robust to a number of alternative specifications and additional co-variates.     

Modelling and assessment of South African elephant Loxodonta africana population persistence

The use of a quantitative population growth model to investigate the persistence of South African elephant populations is explored. The model provides quantitative assessments of population persistence and confidence intervals for estimated parameters based purely on population size estimates. The analysis supports the view that most of the larger populations in the region are secure. This view is further supported by a lack of density dependent effects in most of the recovering populations and the high population rates of increase observed. This predominantly positive prognosis is in contrast with that emerging from most of the rest of the African continent where the populations are under greater threat because of habitat restriction and direct human conflict. This preliminary assessment of elephant population persistence suggests that “viable” populations may lie between 400 and 6000 individuals. Although not inconsistent with information-greedy genetic and demographic models, the relationship between population growth versus genetic and demographic models should be further investigated. The implementation of a metapopulation management strategy towards these smaller populations is advocated. In addition, as all of the populations included in this analysis have been afforded some degree of protection since the 1920s, continued protection would be a prerequisite for their continued survival.     

Effect of Heavy Metals on the Blood Protein Biochemistry of the Fish CYPRINUS CARPIO AND ITS USE AS A BIO-INDICATOR OF POLLUTION STRESS

Cyprinus carpio were exposed to two non-essential (Hg and Pb)and two essential (Cu and Ni) heavy metal salts at lethal andsub-lethal concentrations. Blood serum total protein, serum globulinand serum albumin was analysed every 2 hr for 24 hrs andagain at 48 and 72 hrs. Serum protein and globulin level showedan intial sharp increase from 2 to 20 hrs, followed by decline thatextend over a period of 72 hrs. Serum albumin showed an initialimmediate decline from 2 to 4 hrs, followed by an intermittent period of recovery and decline that extend over a period of 72hrs. Both lethal and sub-lethal concentrations of metal salts elicited asimilar pattern of response varying only in magnitude. The use offish blood serum protein, albumin and globulin measurements as general indicators of pollutant stress response isdiscussed.     

Rabbit Population Landscape-Scale Simulation to Investigate the Relevance of Using Rabbits in Regulatory Environmental Risk Assessment

This paper describes the development and testing of the ALMaSS rabbit model and its baseline, and subsequently its application to the question of lagomorph population vulnerability in environmental risk assessment (ERA). Development and testing following a pattern-oriented modelling protocol resulted in a model able to replicate local and landscape-level rabbit population patterns. We then tested how robust rabbit populations are to an (imaginary) extreme toxic stressor at a landscape level in a variety of landscapes, and to what extremes key uncertain model parameters must be pushed to cause extinctions. This was contrasted with the same (imaginary) toxic stressor applied to the already existing ALMaSS hare model. For EU risk assessment of plant protection products, these results clearly indicate that if the protection goal is population-level impacts, either in abundance and/or distribution, then the hare is a much more vulnerable species than the rabbit under all the conditions tested. Rabbits would only be more vulnerable than hares if the entire population were to be exposed simultaneously, when lower body mass would then be a critical factor. This did not occur even though the toxicant and exposure scenarios tested here were extreme and, in fragmented landscapes at scales used here, will not occur in reality from the use of plant protection products on crop fields. As well as specifically answering the question on rabbit versus hare vulnerability, this study generally illustrates the potential application of models for setting focal species for risk assessments.     

太湖蓝藻水华暴发程度年度预测

近年来,尽管太湖主要水质指标有所改善,但蓝藻水华暴发的频次和面积并未明显减少.为了探讨太湖蓝藻水华暴发的环境驱动因子,统计了2012—2020年历年4—10月预警期间的太湖蓝藻水华发生规模与频次,结合同步浮标自动监测数据和实验室分析数据,构建了蓝藻水华预测模型.以太湖蓝藻水华综合指数(Ic)表征蓝藻水华强度,并通过Ic...     

Reconsidering the Dynamic Interaction of Renewable Resources and Population Growth: A Focus on Long-Run Sustainability

Within the framework of a general equilibrium model we study the long-run dynamics of resources and population if the growth rate of resources and population and the share of labor devoted to production are adversely affected by resource scarcity. Our results show that sustainability, i.e. a positive value of resources and population in the long run, essentially depends on the level of per capita resources at which these feedback mechanisms become active. A detailed bifurcation analysis evidences the richness of possible long-run dynamics.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in Eastern Turkey: a case study in Gümüşhane

Recognition and understanding of landscape dynamics as a historical legacy of disturbances are necessary for sustainable management of forest ecosystems. This study analyzed spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover patterns in a typical mountain watershed in the Gumushane district along the Northeastern part of Turkey. The area is investigated by comparing LANDSAT images from 1987 to 2000 and evaluated the temporal changes of spatial structure of forest conditions through spatial analysis of forest cover type maps from 1971 and 1987 using GIS and FRAGSTATS™. The results show a general decreasing trend in area of natural land cover types including broadleaf and conifer forests as well as coppice between 1971 and 1987 (0.54%, respectively). In contrast, between 1987 and 2000 this natural land cover types show increasing trend (1.6%). In parallel with forest dynamics, the area of managed land including lowland and upland agricultural areas, rangelands and grasslands increased during the first period and decreased during second period. In terms of spatial configuration, Gümüşhane forests aren’t generally fragmented by intensive forest utilization in the latter periods. This is partially due to out-migration of rural population in Gümüşhane. Nevertheless, land use pattern significantly changed over time depending on a few factors such as unregulated management actions, social pressure and demographic movements. The study revealed that demographic movements have a major effect on landscape dynamics.     

Population dynamics model of interacting copepod species coupled with a 1‐D model of phytoplankton dynamics in the Greenland Sea Gyre

The population dynamics of two copepods Calanus hyperboreus and Oithona similis are simulated simultaneously in a 1‐D model of phytoplankton and nutrient in the centre of the Greenland Sea Gyre. The copepod model describes the development of cohorts in terms of numbers and biomasses over the year. Effects of competition for food and interactions (predation) between species have been studied. Due to the short period of phytoplankton bloom and the slow growth of large copepods, small but fast growing copepods can play a key role in the ecosystem dynamics: they consume the phytoplankton when the bloom occurs, recycle matter in the upper layer, and serve as preys for larger species.     

Evaluating Ecological Indicators: Lakes In The Northeastern United States

We use data from a survey of several hundred lakes in the northeastern United States by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to illustrate an approach to identifying promising indicators of lake condition. We construct a hypothetical gold standard of water quality from the first principal component of 16 chemical variables measured in the lakes, and examine its associations with 71 candidate indicators based on measurements of human activity, birds, fish and zooplankton in the lakes or their watersheds. Nonparametric summaries of these associations – based on rank correlations and receiver-operating-characteristic curves – suggest that variables summarizing the extent of human disturbance are generally the strongest indicators. To the extent that our water-quality variable is a useful proxy for ecological condition, our results suggest that easily-obtained measures of human activity are at least as predictive as many of the harder-to-measure biological indicators that have been proposed.