Uncertainty Requirements in Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Abstract

The continuing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) makes it essential that climate sensitivity, the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature that would result from a given radiative forcing, be quantified with known uncertainty. Present estimates are quite uncertain, 3 ± 1.5 K for doubling of CO₂. Model studies examining climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit large differences in sensitivities and imposed aerosol forcings that raise questions regarding claims of their having reproduced observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century. Present uncertainty in forcing, caused largely by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols, precludes meaningful model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change or empirical determination of climate sensitivity. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing must be reduced at least three-fold for uncertaintyin climate sensitivity to be meaningfully reduced and bounded.     

Characterization of aerosols and its radiative impacts over urban and rural environments--a case study from Hyderabad and Srisailam

In the troposphere anthropogenic aerosol emissions are increasing in recent decades, which can influence the earth's climate. The present study addresses the characterization of aerosols and their radiative impacts over urban (Hyderabad) and rural (Srisailam) environments by using aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from MICROTOPS-II sunphotometer. AOD measurements over the urban site showed high values compared to the rural site. Over the urban environment aerosol forcing at the surface is as high as -42 W m(-2) and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is +10 W m(-2) whereas at the rural environment aerosol forcing at the surface has been observed to be -11 W m(-2) and at TOA it is observed to be +5.7 W m(-2). The difference between TOA and the surface forcing over the urban environment is +32 W m(-2) and over the rural environment is +5.3 W m(-2), which shows the absorption capacity of the respective atmospheres.     

Impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on climate: Evidence for aerosol shortwave and longwave forcing in the Southeastern U.S.

Major volcanic eruptions inject massive amounts of dust and gases into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols can scatter incoming solar radiation to space, increasing planetary albedo, reducing the total amount of solar energy reaching the troposphere and the earth's surface, and decreasing the daytime maximum temperature (aerosol shortwave forcing). They can also absorb and scatter outgoing terrestrial longwave radiation, increasing the nighttime minimum surface temperature (longwave forcing). However, persuasive evidence of climate response to this forcing has thus far been lacking. Here we examine patterns of annual and seasonal variations in mean maximum and minimum temperature trend during the periods 1992–1994 and 1985–1987 relative to that during the period 1988–1990 at 47 stations in the southeastern U.S. for evidence of such climate responses. The stratospheric volcanic aerosol optical depths over the southeastern U.S. during the period 1985–1994 were inferred from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment (SAGE) 11 satellite extinction measurement. After the long-term trend signals are removed, it is shown that the dominant decreasing trend of mean maximum temperature and the dominant increasing trend of mean minimum temperature over periods 1992–1994 and 1985–1987 relative to that over the period 1988–1990 are consistent with the distribution of stratospheric volcanic aerosols and predictions from aerosol radiative forcing in the southeastern U.S.     

Radiative effects of aerosols over Indo-Gangetic plain: environmental (urban vs. rural) and seasonal variations

Aerosol radiative effects over two environmentally distinct locations, Kanpur (urban site) and Gandhi College (rural location) in the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP), a regional aerosol hot spot, utilizing the measured optical and physical characteristics of aerosols, an aerosol optical properties model and a radiative transfer model, are examined. Shortwave aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is 30 W m(?-?2)). Shortwave atmospheric heating due to aerosols is >0.4 K/day over IGP and peaks during premonsoon at >0.6 K/day due to lower single scattering albedo (SSA) and higher surface albedo. TOA forcing is always less negative over Kanpur when compared to Gandhi College due to lower surface albedo except in postmonsoon owing to higher SSA. This happens as TOA forcing depends on SSA and surface albedo in addition to aerosol optical depth. The magnitude of longwave forcing and atmospheric cooling in an absolute sense is significantly small and contributes only about 20% or less to the net (shortwave + longwave) forcing. Aerosol radiative effects over these two locations, despite differences in aerosol characteristics, are similar, thus confirming that aerosols and their radiative influence get transported due to circulation. ARF over Kanpur and Gandhi College is an order of magnitude higher when compared to greenhouse gas forcing. A large reduction in surface reaching solar irradiance accompanied by large atmospheric warming can have implications on precipitation and hydrological cycle, and these aerosol radiative effects should be included while performing regional-scale aerosol climate assessments.     

A contribution of brown carbon aerosol to the aerosol light absorption and its radiative forcing in East Asia

Brown carbon aerosols were recently found to be ubiquitous and effectively absorb solar radiation. We use a 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) together with aircraft and ground based observations from the TRACE-P and the ACE-Asia campaigns to examine the contribution of brown carbon aerosol to the aerosol light absorption and its climatic implication over East Asia in spring 2001. We estimated brown carbon aerosol concentrations in the model using the mass ratio of brown carbon to black carbon (BC) aerosols based on measurements in China and Europe. The comparison of simulated versus observed aerosol light absorption showed that the model accounting for brown carbon aerosol resulted in a better agreement with the observations in East Asian-Pacific outflow. We then used the model results to compute the radiative forcing of brown carbon, which amounts up to ?2.4 W m^?2 and 0.24 W m^?2 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), respectively, over East Asia. Mean radiative forcing of brown carbon aerosol is ?0.43 W m^?2 and 0.05 W m^?2 at the surface and at the TOA, accounting for about 15% of total radiative forcing (?2.2 W m^?2 and 0.33 W m^?2) by absorbing aerosols (BC + brown carbon aerosol), having a significant climatic implication in East Asia.     

Present and potential future contributions of sulfate,black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality,premature mortality and radiative forcing

Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), a sulfate (SO₄^2?) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO₄^2? and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO₂, SO₄^2?, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration–response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30 000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO₄^2? and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of ?74 mW m^?2 in 2000 and between ?15 and ?97 mW m^?2 in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China's anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing.     

Modeling the spectral optical properties of ammonium sulfate and biomass burning aerosols: parameterization of relative humidity effects and model results

The importance of including the global and regional radiative effects of aerosols in climate models has increasingly been realized. Accurate modeling of solar radiative forcing due to aerosols from anthropogenic sulfate and biomass burning emissions requires adequate spectral resolution and treatment of spatial and temporal variability. The variation of aerosol spectral optical properties with local relative humidity and dry aerosol composition must be considered. Because the cost of directly including Mie calculations within a climate model is prohibitive, parameterizations from off-line calculations must be used. Starting from a log-normal size distribution of dry ammonium sulfate, we developed optical properties for tropospheric sulfate aerosol at 15 relative humidities up to 99%. The resulting aerosol size distributions were then used to calculate bulk optical properties at wavelengths between 0.175 and 4 μm. Finally, functional fits of optical properties were made for each of 12 wavelength bands as a function of relative humidity. Significant variations in optical properties occurred across the total solar spectrum. Relative increases in specific extinction and asymmetry factor with increasing relative humidity became larger at longer wavelengths. Significant variation in single-scattering albedo was found only in the longest near-IR band. This is also the band with the lowest single scattering albedo. A similar treatment was done for aerosols from biomass burning. In this case, two size distributions were considered. One was based on a distribution measured for Northern Hemisphere temperate forest fires while the second was based on a measured size distribution for tropical fires. Equilibrium size distributions and compositions were calculated for 15 relative humidities and five black carbon fractions. Mie calculations and band averages of optical properties were done for each of the resulting 75 cases. Finally, fits were made for each of 12 spectral bands as functions of relative humidity and black carbon fraction. These optical properties result in global average forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols of −0.81 Wm^-2. The global average forcing for biomass aerosols ranged from −0.23 to −0.25 Wm^-2 depending on the assumed size distribution, while fossil fuel organic and black carbon are estimated to heat the atmosphere by about 0.16 Wm^-2.     

Shortwave radiative forcing efficiency of urban aerosols--a case study using ground based measurements

Aerosols reduce the surface reaching solar flux by scattering the incoming solar radiation out to space. Various model studies on climate change suggest that surface cooling induced by aerosol scattering is the largest source of uncertainty in predicting the future climate. In the present study measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its direct radiative forcing efficiency has been presented over a typical tropical urban environment namely Hyderabad during December, 2003. Measurements of AOD have been carried out using MICROTOPS-II sunphotometer, black carbon aerosol mass concentration using Aethalometer, total aerosol mass concentration using channel Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCM) Impactor Particle analyser and direct normal solar irradiance using Multifilter Rotating Shadow Band Radiometer (MFRSR). Diurnal variation of AOD showed high values during afternoon hours. The fraction of BC estimated to be approximately 9% in the total aerosol mass concentration over the study area. Results of the study suggest -62.5 Wm(-2) reduction in the ground reaching shortwave flux for every 0.1 increase in aerosol optical depth. The results have been discussed in the paper.     

Radiative forcing from household fuel burning in Asia

Household fuel use in developing countries, particularly as biomass and coal, is a major source of carbonaceous aerosols and other air pollutants affecting health and climate. Using state-of-the-art emission inventories, a global three-dimensional photochemical tracer/transport model of the troposphere, and a global radiative transfer model based on methods presented in the latest IPCC Assessment Report (2007-AR4), we estimate the radiative forcing (RF) attributable to household fuel combustion in Asia in terms of current global annual-mean RF and future global integrated RF for a one-year pulse of emissions (2000) over two time horizons (100 and 20 years). Despite the significant emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols, these estimates indicate that shorter-lived (non-Kyoto) air pollutants from household fuel use in the region overall seem to exert a small net negative RF because of the strong influence of reflective aerosols. There are, however, major uncertainties in emission estimates for solid fuel burning, and about the sustainability of household fuel wood harvesting in Asia (the carbon neutrality of harvesting). In addition, there is still substantial uncertainty associated with the BC radiative forcing. As a result we find that the sign of the RF from household biomass burning in the region cannot be established. While recognizing the value of integrating climate change and air pollution policies, we are concerned that for a ‘Kyoto style’ post-Kyoto treaty (with global cap-and-trade and the Global Warming Potential as the metric) expanding the basket of components with a selection of short-lived species without also including the wider range of co-emitted species may lead to unintended consequences for global-scale climate. Additional measurement, modelling, and policy research is urgently needed to reduce the uncertainties so that the net impact on climate of emissions and mitigation measures in this sector can be accurately assessed.     

Sulfate aerosols forcing: An estimate using a three-dimensional interactive chemistry scheme

The tropospheric sulfate radiative forcing has been calculated using an interactive chemistry scheme in LMD-GCM. To estimate the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosol on climate, a consistent interaction between atmospheric circulation and radiation computation has been allowed in LMD-GCM. The model results indicate that the change in the sulfate aerosols number concentration is negatively correlated to the indirect radiative forcing. The model simulated annual mean direct radiative forcing ranges from −0.1 to −1.2 W m⁻², and indirect forcing ranges from −0.4 to −1.6 W m⁻². The global annual mean direct effect estimated by the model is −0.48 W m⁻², and that of indirect is −0.68 W m⁻².     

On the contribution of black carbon to the composite aerosol radiative forcing over an urban environment

This paper discusses the extent of Black Carbon (BC) radiative forcing in the total aerosol atmospheric radiative forcing over Pune, an urban site in India. Collocated measurements of aerosol optical properties, chemical composition and BC were carried out for a period of six months (during October 2004 to May 2005) over the site. Observed aerosol chemical composition in terms of water soluble, insoluble and BC components were used in Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) to derive aerosol optical properties of composite aerosols. The BC fraction alone was used in OPAC to derive optical properties of BC aerosols. The aerosol optical properties for composite and BC aerosols were separately used in SBDART model to derive direct aerosol radiative forcing due to composite and BC aerosols. The atmospheric radiative forcing for composite aerosols were found to be +35.5, +32.9 and +47.6 Wm^?2 during post-monsoon, winter and pre-monsoon seasons, respectively. The average BC mass fraction found to be 4.83, 6.33 and 4 μg m^?3 during the above seasons contributing around 2.2 to 5.8% to the total aerosol load. The atmospheric radiative forcing estimated due to BC aerosols was +18.8, +23.4 and +17.2 Wm^?2, respectively during the above seasons. The study suggests that even though BC contributes only 2.2–6% to the total aerosol load; it is contributing an average of around 55% to the total lower atmospheric aerosol forcing due to strong radiative absorption, and thus enhancing greenhouse warming.     

Sensitivity of biogenic secondary organic aerosols to future climate change at regional scales: An online coupled simulation

Biogenic emissions and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are strongly dependent on climatic conditions. To understand the SOA levels and their sensitivity to future climate change in the United States (U.S.), we present a modeling work with the consideration of SOA formation from the oxidation of biogenic emissions with atmospheric oxidants (e.g., OH, O₃, and NO₃). The model simulation for the present-day climate is evaluated against satellite and ground-based aerosol measurements. Although the model underestimates aerosol concentrations over the northwestern U.S. due to the lack of fire emissions in the model simulations, overall, the SOA results agree well with previous studies. Comparing with the available measurements of organic carbon (OC) concentrations, we found that the amount of SOA in OC is significant, with the ratio ranging from 0.1 to 0.5/0.6. The enhanced modeling system driven by global climate model output was also applied for two three-year one-month simulations (July, 2001–2003 and 2051–2053) to examine the sensitivity of SOA to future climate change. Under the future two emissions scenarios (A1B and A2), future temperature changes are predicted to increase everywhere in the U.S., but with different degrees of increase in different regions. As a result of climate change in the future, biogenic emissions are predicted to increase everywhere, with the largest increase (～20%) found in the southeastern and northwestern U.S. under the A1B scenario. Changes in SOA are not identical with those in biogenic emissions. Under the A1B scenario, the biggest increase in SOA is found over Texas, with isoprene emissions being the major contributor to SOA formation. The range of change varies from 5% over the southeast region to 26% over Texas. The changes in either biogenic emissions or SOA under the two climate scenarios are different due to the differences in climatic conditions. Our results also suggest that future SOA concentrations are also influenced by several other factors such as the partitioning coefficients, the atmospheric oxidative capability, primary organic carbon aerosols and anthropogenic emissions.     

Climate forcing by the on-road transportation and power generation sectors

The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that exert complex influences on global climate. Effective mitigation of global climate change necessitates action in these sectors for which technology change options exist or are being developed. Most assessments of possible energy change options to date have neglected non-CO₂ air pollutant impacts on radiative forcing (RF). In a multi-pollutant approach, we apply a global atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify the total RF from the global and United States (U.S.) ORT and PG sectors. We assess the RF for 2 time horizons: 20- and 100-year that are relevant for understanding near-term and longer-term impacts of climate change, respectively. ORT is a key target sector to mitigate global climate change because the net non-CO₂ RF is positive and acts to enhance considerably the CO₂ warming impacts. We perform further sensitivity studies to assess the RF impacts of a potential major technology shift that would reduce ORT emissions by 50% with the replacement energy supplied either by a clean zero-emissions source (S1) or by the PG sector, which results in an estimated 20% penalty increase in emissions from this sector (S2). We examine cases where the technology shift is applied globally and in the U.S. only. The resultant RF relative to the present day control is negative (cooling) in all cases for both S1 and S2 scenarios, global and U.S. emissions, and 20- and 100-year time horizons. The net non-CO₂ RF is always important relative to the CO₂ RF and outweighs the CO₂ RF response in the S2 scenario for both time horizons. Assessment of the full impacts of technology and policy strategies designed to mitigate global climate change must consider the climate effects of ozone and fine aerosol particles.     

Atmospheric composition change: Climate–Chemistry interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds like methane (CH₄), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds like ozone (O₃), sulfate and organic aerosols, both formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate–chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate–chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds like O₃ and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds like O₃, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects like ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AeroCom project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric–tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favoring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 5–10 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modeling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modeling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.     

Analysis and prediction of global climate temperature change based on multiforced observational statistics

The response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gases was simulated by a number of climate model projections. There is an urgent need to verify or falsify these projections against observational climate data. Therefore, in this contribution, surface air temperature data are considered covering on a global average the period 1861-1990 and on a northern hemisphere average 1670-1990 (including proxy data). Based on a multiple correlation and coherence analysis a regression model is evaluated which is simultaneously forced by the observed or reconstructed atmospheric CO(2) or equivalent CO(2) concentration increase, volcanic activity, solar variations, and the ENSO (El Ni?o/southern oscillation) mechanism including phase shifts between cause and effect. This model reveals a greenhouse-gas-induced mean global temperature rise of 0.6-0.8 K since preindustrial time (c. 1800-1990). Following the IPCC business-as-usual scenario (trend extrapolation) this would lead to a hypothetical 3.8 K temperature rise in 2100 (best estimate, uncertainty + 0.7/-0.4 K compared to the 1985 value.     

Aerosol optical,chemical and physical properties at Gosan,Korea during Asian dust and pollution episodes in 2001

In order to understand the influence of dust and anthropogenic pollution aerosols on regional climate in East Asia, we analyzed the aerosol optical, chemical and physical properties for two cases with high aerosol loading and assessed the radiative forcing of these cases. The 1st case study is a heavy dust episode (DE) in April (during ACE-Asia) 2001 and the 2nd case is a regional-scale pollution event in November 2001. The Ångström exponent (Å) for DE was 0.38 from sunphotometer measurements. The mean single scattering albedo (550 nm) at the surface reported during the pollution episode (PE, 0.88) was lower than that of DE (0.91). The concentrations of organic (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) measured during the PE were about 90% and 30% higher than DE. The aerosol mass scattering efficiency (α_s) of PE is a factor of about 2 higher than that of the DE. The difference in the mass absorption efficiency (α_a) of EC during DE and PE is small and within the measurement uncertainty. The diurnally averaged aerosol radiative forcing efficiency (ΔDFE, W m⁻² τ⁻¹) during DE is similar to results of other studies at Gosan.     

Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols: (1) Methodology,global aerosol distribution and optical depth

Our objectives are to evaluate inter-continental source-receptor relationships for fine aerosols and to identify the regions whose emissions have dominant influence on receptor continents. We simulate sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and mineral dust aerosols using a global coupled chemistry-aerosol model (MOZART-2) driven with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis meteorology for 1997–2003 and emissions approximately representing year 2000. The concentrations of simulated aerosol species in general agree within a factor of 2 with observations, except that the model tends to overestimate sulfate over Europe in summer, underestimate BC and OC over the western and southeastern (SE) U.S. and Europe, and underestimate dust over the SE U.S. By tagging emissions from ten continental regions, we quantify the contribution of each region's emissions on surface aerosol concentrations (relevant for air quality) and aerosol optical depth (AOD, relevant for visibility and climate) globally. We find that domestic emissions contribute substantially to surface aerosol concentrations (57–95%) over all regions, but are responsible for a smaller fraction of AOD (26–76%). We define “background” aerosols as those aerosols over a region that result from inter-continental transport, DMS oxidation, and emissions from ships or volcanoes. Transport from other continental source regions accounts for a substantial portion of background aerosol concentrations: 36–97% for surface concentrations and 38–89% for AOD. We identify the Region of Primary Influence (RPI) as the source region with the largest contribution to the receptor's background aerosol concentrations (or AOD). We find that for dust Africa is the RPI for both aerosol concentrations and AOD over all other receptor regions. For non-dust aerosols (particularly for sulfate and BC), the RPIs for aerosol concentrations and AOD are identical for most receptor regions. These findings indicate that the reduction of the emission of non-dust aerosols and their precursors from an RPI will simultaneously improve both air quality and visibility over a receptor region.     

Sensitivity of shortwave radiative fluxes to the vertical distribution of aerosol single scattering albedo in the presence of a desert dust layer

The aim of this work is to quantify the sensitivity of shortwave radiative fluxes to changes in the vertical distribution of aerosol absorption, taken into account through the aerosol Single Scattering Albedo (SSA). The case study represents a real atmospheric situation with a desert dust layer (DDL) in the mid troposphere over an urban Boundary Layer (BL) observed at Rome on 20 June 2007. A moderately high aerosol optical depth (AOD), 0.292 at 550 nm, and low Ångström exponent of 0.30 were measured. The observed case was reconstructed with a radiative transfer model, in which the SSA of the boundary layer aerosols was varied from that of a highly absorbing aerosol type (urban) to a highly scattering one (clear marine). The SSA of the DDL is determined keeping fixed the measured SSA of the whole atmospheric column. The simulations show notable changes in the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) diffuse fluxes depending on the boundary layer aerosol properties. The aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) at the surface changes by 6–19 W m^?2, depending on the solar zenith angle, when urban or clean marine particles are included in the boundary layer. The ARF differences observed at TOA are between 1 and 5 W m^?2 when urban and clean marine aerosol types in the BL are respectively used, showing a smaller dependency on the solar zenith angle than at the surface.     

Greenhouse gas induced climate change

Simulations using global coupled climate models predict a climate change due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. Both are associated with the burning of fossil fuels. There has been considerable debate if this postulated human influence is already evident. This paper gives an overview on some recent material on this question. One particular study using optimal fingerprints (Hegerl et al., 1996) is explained in more detail. In this study, an optimal fingerprint analysis is applied to temperature trend patterns over several decades. The results show the probability being less than 5% that the most recently observed 30 year trend is due to naturally occurring climate fluctuations. This result suggests that the present warming is caused by some external influence on climate, e.g. by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. More work is needed to address the uncertainties in the magnitude of naturally occurring climate fluctuations. Also, other external influences on climate need to be investigated to uniquely attribute the present climate change to the human influence.