利用数据挖掘方法探索流域尺度气象干旱预报的研究

基于提高流域尺度的区域中长期气象干旱预报的准确度的考虑,采用支持向量机(SVM)和数据处理组合方法(GMDH)两种数据挖掘方法来识别时空气象相关性,并对这两种数据挖掘方法用于预测流域尺度的气象干旱预报性能进行对比。采用标准化降水指数(SPI)作为气象干旱严重度指数。采用颗粒群优化方法 (PSO)对两种数据挖掘方法GMDH和SVM模型进行优化。通过仿真实验表明,GMDH模型具有更好的预测稳定性,而SVM模型具有更好的预测准确度。     

人工神经网络在湟水水质综合评价中的应用

将“前向人工神经网络技术”应用于水质综合评价，提出了水质综合评价BP模型，并将该模型应用于实例进行效果检验，结果表明：人工神经网络BP模型用于水质综合评价是可行的，该方法适应性强，评价结果客观、合理。     

代神经网络在湟水水质综合评价中的应用

将“前向人工神经网络技术”应用于水质综合评价，提出了水质综合评价ＢＰ模型，并将该模型应用于实例进行效果检验，结果表明：人工神经网络ＢＰ模型用于水质综合评价是可行的，该方法适应性强，评价结果客观、合理。     

多级模糊模式识别模型及在长江水质评价中的应用

利用多级模糊模式识别方法的基本理论,通过多目标优选,计算指标综合权重,给出了长江水质的评价模型;利用该模型对长江干流四川境内的5个观测断面的水质监测结果做出了评价:攀枝花、重庆朱沱和宜宾凉姜沟的水质属Ⅱ级,乐山岷江大桥和泸州沱江二桥的水质属Ⅲ级.评价结果不仅体现了水质级别,更体现了同级别水质中不同的污染程度,因而结果更为合理可靠.     

中小河流水质模型应用研究

针对中小河流水文，水力特性，依据一维对流扩散方程，推导出适用于小河流的动态水质模型和稳态水质模型，分别应用于新疆乌鲁木齐地区水磨沟水质模拟计算，最后对两种状态的水质模型进行分析讨论。     

分段控制江水污染治理系数的最优解

本文根据（环境科学概论）的水质基本方程，对江水分段水质管理提出数学模型，用线性规划和最优化方法提出控制江水污染的决策措施，我们可以根据这些数据有计划地提出治理方案，使江水水质符合国家标准，同时使资金投入最省。     

河网水质模型研究进展

纵观水质模型的研究、应用及相关科学的发展，本文针对现有的水质模型做了分析评价，简要介绍了河网水质模型的未来研究趋势，并提出了几点建议。     

正交化方法在水质模型参数确定中的应用

本文根据常微分方程参数反问题的数学理论，将正交化方法同有限差分法结合用于确定水质模型参数，并与正则化方法、最速下降法和共轭梯度法作了比较。其计算结果对比表明，正交化方法具有快速、简便、可靠的特点。更适合于水质模型参数的确定。     

太湖流域水资源综合规划数模研究--水质模型的建立与率定

太湖流域水资源综合规划数模研究建立了一个覆盖全流域的，包括污染负荷模型、河网湖泊相耦合的水量水质模型的数字流域系统。该系统实现了流域的耦合求解，已在流域水资源规划中发挥了重要的作用。本文建宴了流域水质模型，并在水量模型率定的基础上进行了水质模型的率定。率定结果与实测数据吻合较好，相对误差多在30％之内，一定程度上反映了太湖流域的水质概况。     

利用二维模型求解太湖水质CODMn的研究

在二维黎曼近似解模型的基础上建立了太湖水质预测模型，并运用该模型对太湖的水质指标CODMn了模拟。模拟的结果跟太湖各监测站的测量值相接近，表明该模型能较好的运用于太湖的水质预测。     

工业污水可生物降解性评价方法研究

针对生化系统经常遭受异常进水或毒性物质冲击的情况,提出了以耗氧速率(OUR)和相对耗氧速率(SOUR)快速评价污水可生物降解性的方法,以提高活性污泥系统的处理效率和运行管理水平。试验结果表明:OUR和SOUR对异常pH值水质条件以及苯酚、甲醛和甲醇等毒性物质的存在都非常敏感。对于大庆石化公司水气厂化工污水处理场的活性污泥来说,甲醛对微生物的毒性最强,甲醇次之,而苯酚则最弱。化工污水处理场活性污泥对三者的允许浓度分别为70、170、350 mg/L。     

氯离子对COD测定的影响及消除方法

为保证测定污水中COD数据的准确性,分析了不同浓度氯离子对污水中COD测定的影响,并对不同浓度氯离子的消除方法进行了实验和探讨。实验结果表明:当氯离子的质量浓度小于2000mg/L时,用国标法简单准确,当氯离子的质量浓度大于2000mg/L小于20000mg/L时,用氯气校正法更为合适。     

Coliforms removal in full-scale activated sludge plants in India

This paper investigates the removal of coliforms in full-scale activated sludge plants (ASP) operating in northern regions of India. Log2.2 and log2.4 removal were observed for total coliforms (TC) and fecal coliforms (FC), respectively. However, the effluent still contained a significant number of TC and FC which was greater than the permissible limit for unrestricted irrigation as prescribed by WHO. The observations also suggest that extended aeration (EA) process operating under high mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS) and sludge retention time (SRT) is more efficient in the removal of coliforms. Further attempts have been made to establish the relationship between two key wastewater parameters, i.e. biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and suspended solids (SS) with respect to fecal and TC. The relationships were observed to be linear with a good coefficient of correlation. The interrelationship of BOD and SS with coliforms manifest that improvement of the microbiological quality of wastewater could be linked with the removal of SS. Therefore, SS can serve as a regulatory tool in lieu of an explicit coliforms standard.     

啤酒厂排放废水中COD与BOD5的相关性分析

本文针对ＢＯＤ５测定时间长，对突发性污染事故无法及时提供监测数据的缺点，采用最小二乘法，找出ＣＯＤ与ＢＯＤ５之间的回归方程式，应易测的ＣＯＤ值，较快地估测废水中的ＢＯＤ５值。     

Thermogravimetric pyrolysis of waste polyethylene-terephthalate and polystyrene: A critical assessment of kinetics modelling

Pyrolysis is considered as possible technique to thermally convert waste plastics into chemicals and energy. Literature on experimental findings is extensive, although experiments are mostly performed in a dynamic heating mode, using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and at low values of the heating rate (mostly below 30 K/min). The present research differs from literature through the application of far higher heating rates, up to 120 K/min. The use of these dynamic results to define the reaction kinetics necessitates the selection of an appropriate reaction mechanism, and 21 models have been proposed in literature considering the rate limiting step being diffusion, nucleation or the reaction itself.The current research studied the cracking of PET and PS by TGA at different heating rates (temperature ramps). Results were used to check the validity of the proposed mechanisms. Several conclusions are drawn: (i) to obtain fair results, the heating ramp should exceed a minimum value, calculated at 30 K/min for PET and 80 K/min for PS; (ii) application of the majority of the models to experimental findings demonstrated that they do not meet fundamental kinetic considerations and are questionable in their use; and (iii) simple models, with reaction order 1 or 2, provide similar results of the reaction activation energy.A further comparison with literature data for dynamic and isothermal experiments confirms the validity of these selected models. Since TGA results are obtained on a limited amount of sample, with results being a strong function of the applied heating rate, the authors believe that isothermal experiments, preferably on a large scale both towards equipment and/or sample size, are to be preferred.     

SOME SIMPLE MODELS FOR CONTINUOUS VARIATE TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: A survey is given of recently developed models for continuous variate non–Gaussian time series. The emphasis is on marginally specific models with given correlation structure. Exponential, Gamma, Weibull, Laplace, Beta and Mixed Exponential models are considered for the marginal distributions of the stationary time series. Most of the models are random coefficient, additive linear models. Some discussion of the meaning of autoregression and linearity is given, as well as suggestions for higher–order linear residual analysis for non–Gaussian models.     

Modeling potential herbicide loss to surface waters on the Swiss plateau

Lack of sufficiently detailed data often limits the applicability of complex transport-reaction models for estimating potential herbicide loss to surface waters. Therefore, there is also a need for simple models that are easy to apply but still capture the main features of the underlying processes.In this study, a simple regression model was developed to assess the vulnerability of catchments in the Swiss Plateau to diffuse herbicide loss to surface waters. The model is designed as a screening tool to rank the catchments in a relative sense and not to calculate Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) of pesticides. The main goal is to capture two dominating factors controlling diffuse herbicide transport into streams and rivers. These factors are herbicide application and fast flow processes that are mainly responsible for herbicide transport. In a first step vulnerability of sites to herbicide loss is estimated based on site-specific conditions irrespective of actual herbicide application. In the second step, this vulnerability assessment is combined with actual herbicide application data to estimate the potential herbicide loss.The fast flow index (FFI), derived from discharge data using a base flow separation method, was applied as a proxy for the amount of fast flow occurring. The influence of catchment attributes (including topographic, climatic and soil data) on the FFI was analyzed using a multiple regression approach based on data from 57 catchments of the Swiss Plateau. By combining regression analysis with mechanistic knowledge, a two factor non-linear model based on river density and soil permeability as dominant input factors was selected as the best model for FFI prediction given the available data. Higher dimensional models had to be excluded because the strong correlation between the potential input factors led to unrealistic dependences while only minimally improving the quality of the fit.The spatial pattern of the predicted FFI as a measure for the vulnerability to diffuse herbicide losses shows a clearly increasing trend from the western to the eastern part of the Swiss Plateau and towards the pre-alpine/alpine regions in the south.In general the pattern of herbicide use corresponds to site conditions typical of a low FFI. However, the spatial analysis revealed exceptions, namely areas in which high actual herbicide use coincides with a high FFI.Despite the uncertainties in the model, this simple approach seems to be useful for supporting site-adapted agricultural practice whenever the higher accuracy of more detailed models is not required or too expensive to achieve. In addition, in combination with data on actual herbicide application, it can support the design of monitoring strategies by identifying critical areas of actual herbicide loss.     

Using GIS to Identify Functionally Significant Wetlands in the Northeastern United States

/ Of the several automated wetland assessment methods currently available, none are comprehensive in considering all of the primary functions a wetland can perform. We developed a methodology particularly suited to the Northeastern United States that enumerates spatial predictors of wetland function for three primary wetland functions: flood flow alteration, surface water quality improvement, andwildlife habitat. Predictors were derived from several wetland assessment techniques and directly from the literature on wetland structure and function. The methodology was then automated using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The resulting Automated Assessment Method for Northeastern Wetlands (AMNEW) consists of a suite of eight Arc Macro Language (AML) programs that run in the ARC/INFO GRID module. Using remotely sensed land use information and digital elevation models (DEMs), AMNEW produces three separate grids of wetlands that perform each function. The method was tested on four watersheds in Vermont's Lake Champlain Basin. Results and preliminary verification indicate that the method can successfully identify those wetlands in the Northeastern region that have the potential to be functionally important.     

A suggestion for Korean resource productivity management policy with calculating and analyzing its national resource productivity

In this study, we suggested a criterion of Korean resource productivity calculation method including its range which is not generalized yet and analyzed its level by reviewing the resource productivity management policies and study trends of the major advanced countries. The material flow indexes that are widely used in major advanced countries, such as the domestic material consumption (DMC), were used to establish the resource productivity calculation method with estimation the domestic resource productivity during 2000–2010. As of 2010, the DMC was 590 million ton, GDP was 1 trillion dollars and DMC-based resource productivity was 1.75 thousand US dollars/ton, which was continuously increased during last ten years with 8.0%, 50.0%, and 38.9%, respectively. This increase tendency was not because of DMC reduction through resource management but because of just large GDP increase. The results of the comparison with other countries indicated that Korea had the lower resource productivity level and also the lower increasing rate than major advanced countries such as the UK and Japan, and required an efficient resource management plan for improvement. Therefore, we finally suggested a Korean resource productivity policy direction to construct its sustainable system for its improvement.     

CALIBRATION OF STORM LOADS IN THE SOUTH PRONG WATERSHED,FLORIDA, USING BASINS/HSPF1

ABSTRACT: The South Prong watershed is a major tributary system of the Sebastian River and adjacent Indian River Lagoon. Continued urbanization of the Sebastian River drainage basin and other watersheds of the Indian River Lagoon is expected to increase runoff and nonpoint source pollutant loads. The St. Johns River Water Management District developed watershed simulation models to estimate potential impacts on the ecological systems of receiving waters and to assist planners in devising strategies to prevent further degradation of water resources. In the South Prong system, a storm water sampling program was carried out to calibrate the water quality components of the watershed model for total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorous (TP), and total nitrogen (TN). During the period of May to November 1999, water quality and flow data were collected at three locations within the watershed. Two of the sampling stations were located at the downstream end of major watercourses. The third station was located at the watershed outlet. Five storm events were sampled and measured at each station. Sampling was conducted at appropriate intervals to represent the rising limb, peak, and recession limb of each storm event. The simulations were handled by HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran). Results include calibration of the hydrology and calibration of the individual storm loads. The hydrologic calibration was continuous over the period 1994 through 1999. Simulated storm runoff, storm loads, and event mean concentrations were compared with their corresponding observed values. The hydrologic calibration showed good results. The outcome of the individual storm calibrations was mixed. Overall, however, the simulated storm loads agreed reasonably well with measured loads for a majority of the storms.