Climate variability,political crises,and historical population displacements in Ethiopia

Abstract

El Niño events from the 1970s through the 1990s caused extended droughts in Ethiopia. These droughts were followed by famine and political turmoil that resulted in radical changes of government, secession, and a massive program of population redistribution. Cartographic analysis of Ethiopian census data from 1984 and 1994 shows changes in demographic patterns. The consequences of government-imposed migration policies, whose catalyst was the climate variability caused by repeated El Niño events, were changes in the ethnic composition of certain Ethiopian regions and changes in the geographic pattern of population growth.     

Reducing vulnerability to drought and famine: developmental approaches to relief

In this paper we present salient lessons learned through the International Relief/Development Project about the relationships between disasters and development. We discuss approaches to famine response and prevention, including the impact of global food distribution efforts on the capacities of people affected by famine and offer criteria for planning famine relief so that it will promote systemic, long term development of these capacities. We first describe a collaborative research project which showed that it is possible for international famine assistance either to promote the capacities of people who suffer from famine so that they are better able to handle future food crises, or to leave those it purports to help worse off and even more vulnerable to subsequent disasters. We then illustrate alternative strategies for promoting development in the midst of crisis by presenting information about a number of famine response programs and analyzing their impact on capacities and vulnerabilities.     

National organizations and famine early warning the case of mali(1)

In the Sahelian countries of West Africa, the problems of drought and famine are sufficiently long term to justify the existence of permanent food security agencies. Yet donors are reluctant to fund these agencies when there is not a crisis, forcing poor countries to use their own resources for food security and famine early warning efforts. To make more effective use of limited resources and since the data needs for effective famine early warning are similar to those for basic rural development, information systems to provide data simultaneously for development projects and famine early warning should be developed and supported. In Mali, one of the larger and poorer countries of the West African Sahel, basic information systems which gather a range of appropriate data already exist, but there need to be improvements in the quality of design and the timeliness of analysis to make the information more useful for either development or famine early warning.     

Capital assets framework for analysing household vulnerability during disaster

This paper examines the vulnerability of households to disasters, using an asset vulnerability framework to represent livelihoods. Such frameworks are widely employed to analyse household poverty and focus on living conditions and well-being rather than money-metric measures of consumption and income. The conceptualisation of household vulnerability is a challenge in current studies on coping with disasters. The paper considers whether a capital assets framework is useful in identifying and assessing household vulnerability in the context of the Wenchuan earthquake in China in 2008. The framework has five categories of assets (financial, human, natural, physical, and social capital) and attempts to measure the resilience and vulnerability of households. When applied to a major disaster, asset-based methods face the problem of heterogeneity of the population, such as with regard to livelihood type or residence. Moreover, the effect of external interventions, such as the provision of relief assistance, must be taken into account.     

Social impact of the 2004 Manawatu floods and the 'hollowing out' of rural New Zealand

The Manawatu floods of 2004 have had significant, long-lasting social consequences. This paper draws on findings from a series of detailed surveys of 39 farm households directly affected by the floods and 17 individuals directly involved in managing the flood recovery programme. The nature of the impact on rural families highlights how the 'hollowing out' of rural New Zealand has changed the capacity of rural communities to respond to natural hazards and increased their sense of isolation. In addition, the floods exposed the vulnerability of rural communities. This is shown to have implications for policies designed to build resilience and improve responses to adverse events, including the need to support local, community initiatives on self-reliance and mutual support. Approaches to manage better long-term flood risks should be designed within a context of ongoing rural decline that has compromised the health of both individuals and communities.     

Livelihood patterns of displaced households in greater khartoum

Members of impoverished households in Greater Khartoum, who have been displaced from their homelands by famine and civil war, gain a livelihood by utilising a wide variety of subsistence activities and sources. These include moonlighting, income diversification and pooling, exchange relations, scavenging, relief supplies from aid agencies and remittances from relatives working in other areas. This finding challenges the widely held view of the displaced as dependent and parasitic on the wider urban community. Several public policies are identified which have a detrimental effect on the livelihood of the displaced.     

School-based disaster risk reduction education in primary schools in Da Nang City,Central Vietnam

The concept of school-based disaster risk reduction (DRR) education has increasingly become popular as greater emphasis is placed on the role of schools in reducing risks and building the resilience of the education system. This paper discusses the variations in the implementation of DRR education among primary schools in different areas including urban, rural, mountainous, plain and coastal areas in Da Nang City, Central Vietnam. For rural schools, similarities in the implementation of DRR education are observed and schools in both rural plain and rural mountainous areas stress the provision of disaster-related training. In addition, improvement of school buildings and external relationship is important for the resilience of urban schools. Specifically, for schools in urban coastal areas, school location and structure are significant, while for schools in the urban plain lands, enhancement of collaboration with their community has the most potential to contribute to the resilience of a school. From that, this research proposes that leadership and prioritization are key factors in helping schools to manage internal and external resources to efficiently overcome challenges and effectively promote DRR education towards the enhancement of schools’ resilience.     

Building disaster resilience using social messaging networks: the WeChat community in Houston,Texas, during Hurricane Harvey

Analyses of disaster resilience have focused increasingly on the role of social capital and online social networks in recovery. This study complements this field of work by investigating three key issues. First, it examines how a social messaging application, WeChat, helped individuals to access and to mobilise three types of social capital—bonding, bridging, and linking—during Hurricane Harvey, a Category 4 storm that made landfall in Louisiana and Texas in the United States in August 2017, resulting in significant flooding and loss of life. Second, it pinpoints and assesses quantitatively how individuals' WeChat group usage and social capital influenced their post-disaster well-being. Third, it demonstrates how a minority and immigrant community in Houston, Texas, overcame the disadvantages commonly observed in other disaster research through the utilisation of social media. The findings of this study should aid governmental and community efforts to foster resilience in the face of natural and human-induced hazards.     

厄尔尼诺事件与黑龙江省低温洪涝灾害的影响及其预报

在研究厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）事件对黑龙江省低温洪涝灾害的影响中,提出了一种表征厄尔尼诺现象的IEN指数,并根据IEN指数谱分析结果给出了厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）事件的统计预测方法。对1997年强厄尔尼诺和1998年拉尼娜事件的实际预报效果表明,该方法是可行的,在区域和省级短期气候预测中可以发挥重要的作用。     

Institutional, policy and farmer responses to drought: El Niño events and rice in the Philippines

Droughts are common recurring natural hazards in Asia, and El Niño events are particularly severe in the Philippines. This paper explores responses by farm households, irrigation system managers, and macro policymakers in the Philippines to El Niño. In response to the large 1997–98 El Niño, farmers in one major irrigation system significantly diversified their economic activities, hut the drought was so acute that many of these activities were not successful. Communication between meteorologists and irrigation system managers is strong, and irrigation system managers are aware of El Niño events in advance. Communication between irrigation system managers and farmer irrigation associations is also strong, and together they have developed response options that attempt to augment supplies of and more efficiently allocate scarce water. Water pricing is not used, however, and lack of cooperation among farmers results in sub-optimal outcomes. Macro-level policy responses in terms of rice imports and buffer stock management to protect poor consumers have improved substantially over time.     

The impact of drought on production, consumption and nutrition in southwestern kenya

In this paper I compare the effects of the 1984 drought on agricultural production, income, food consumption, and nutrition of farm and non-farm households in South Nyanza District, Kenya. Survey work covered the period 1984 to 1987. It was the late arrival of the long rains in spring 1984, rather than an absolute shortfall in rain, that caused most of the fluctuations in agricultural production. Agricultural households who were least affected by the drought were able to cope by increasing the amount of cultivated land and by relying more on coarse grain production. Coping strategies for the landless households in South Nyanza were more limited and this group of households therefore experienced greater fluctuations in income between the drought and non-drought periods than did most types of agricultural households. Surprisingly, changes in food consumption between the drought and non-drought periods were small for most households. In spite of differences in production, food availability and incomes, however, the health and nutritional status of pre-school-aged children was not significantly different in the two time periods. Differences in health and nutritional status appear to be influenced more by community-level health and sanitation factors than by differences in agricultural production and incomes in drought and non-drought years.     

The 1970 Bhola cyclone,nationalist politics,and the subsistence crisis contract in Bangladesh

The devastating Bhola cyclone in November 1970 is credited with having triggered the political events that led to the division of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. A callous response to the disaster by the Pakistani regime resulted in a landslide electoral victory for Bengali nationalists, followed by a bitter and bloody civil war. Yet, despite its political momentousness, the Bhola cyclone has been the subject of little political analysis. This paper examines the events, arguing that its extraordinary political significance put disaster management on the nationalist agenda; the famine of 1974 confirmed its centrality, producing a social contract to protect the population against disasters and subsistence crises on which the country's acclaimed resilience to the effects of climate change rests. The Bhola cyclone also drew international attention to this neglected, little‐known region, and in general can be seen as foundational for the subsequent developmental achievements of Bangladesh.     

Conceptualising disaster social capital: what it is,why it matters,and how it can be enhanced

Social capital discourse occupies an important place in disaster studies. Scholars have adopted various inflections of social capital to explain how those with greater amounts of this crucial resource are generally more resilient to disasters and experience speedier recovery. Disaster scholars have also discovered that people typically display altruistic tendencies in the wake of disasters and develop novel networks of mutual support, known as ‘communitas’, which is also seen to build resilience and boost recovery. In this paper, we use the work of Pierre Bourdieu to synthesise these literatures, conceptualising communitas as ‘disaster social capital’. We offer a fleshed-out definition of disaster social capital to distinguish it from regular social capital and discuss the barriers to, and the enablers of, its formation. While primarily a conceptual discussion, we believe that it has practical and policy value for disaster scholars and practitioners interested in inclusive disaster risk reduction as well as full and just recoveries.     

Foundations of community disaster resilience: well-being,identity, services,and capitals

If community disaster resilience is to mature into a robust and lasting area of research, methodologically facilitated dialogue between empirical observations and theory is necessary. However, methodological and empirical research has outpaced community disaster resilience theory. To address this gap, a theoretical framework called WISC is presented. WISC is named after four constructs of the framework: well-being, identity, services, and capitals. WISC relates the two concepts of community and infrastructure, broadly defined, to the four constructs it is named after. The 4 constructs are respectively defined by 29 variables. The broadest interpretation of WISC is that infrastructure supports and facilitates components of community within human settlements. Infrastructure is represented as combinations of capitals and services; community is represented by connections of identity and well-being. Ultimately, well-being of a community is dependent on that community's collective capital. But these two constructs are mediated by the intervening constructs of identity and services. WISC goes beyond existing frameworks by addressing essential elements of theory building that have been overlooked in the literature, while synthesizing other frameworks and areas of knowledge. WISC provides a powerful foundation for posing and evaluating hypotheses, improving data collection efforts, and, most importantly, enabling critical theory building.     

Desertification, refugees and regional conflict in west Africa

This article documents the potential for inter-state conflict in the migration of hundreds of thousands of famine refugees across international borders in West Africa. Nigeria and Ghana, for example, have to deal not only with the effects of land degradation in their northern territories but also with the influx of famine victims from Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkino Faso. These migrations put an enormous extra burden on the fragile and already overstretched social and economic infrastructures of the host countries. The construction of dams for irrigation and electricity generation in international river basins, is another cause of inter-state conflict related to land degradation. The capacity of West African states to find peaceful solutions to these problems is being undermined by the increasing impoverishment and marginalisation of their populations. A self-serving neo-colonialist governing elite is caught in the economic stranglehold of the advanced capitalist nations. While there is thus no short term solution to the problem of land degradation, immediate steps should at least be taken to give legal protection to those who are forced to cross international borders because of drought and famine.     

Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

Malnutrition and Poverty in the Early Stages of Famine: North Darfur, 1988–90

In this article we report findings on the relationship between malnutrition and poverty during a period of acute food insecurity in Darfur, Sudan. Children of rich and poor families were equally likely to be malnourished, which is explained in terms of people's responses to the threat of famine. This finding has important implications for targeting interventions in the early stages of famine. Appropriate interventions at the early stages of famine are livelihood and income support to the most vulnerable. The entitlement theory of famine causation assumes that the poor are most vulnerable, and become malnourished and die during famines. In this article we show that this assumption does not hold. Even though poverty is the root cause of malnutrition, it does not follow that anthropometric status can be used to target individual poor families, or even that targeting the poor is appropriate in famine situations.     

Local adaptation for livelihood resilience in Albay,Philippines

Local adaptation to climate change is essential for vulnerable coastal communities faced with increasing threats to livelihood and safety. This paper seeks to understand the micro-level enabling conditions for climate change adaptation through a livelihood lens in a study of six coastal villages in Bacacay in the province of Albay, Philippines. Albay is a high-risk province due to hydro-meteorological and geophysical hazards. The analysis of livelihood resilience utilizing the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach shows that a soft adaptation strategy focusing on enhancing human and social capital needs to be undertaken to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience in the study area. Moreover, the micro-level variations in the villages suggest that the understanding of local conditions is indispensable in planning and formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies and actions at local level.     

Famine early warning systems and the use of socio-economic data

Famine early warning systems using socio-economic data suffer from several problems. One is that they cannot, and do not attempt to, distinguish between qualitatively different kinds of famine. The second is that they cannot predict these either accurately or early enough. This is because all the socio-economic indicators produce both false positives and false negatives, the indicators themselves are "late" and because interpretation of the data is complex and time-consuming. The third problem is that within the context of a famine that is occurring, these indicators cannot predict excess mortality. The argument is illustrated with examples from the 1984–5 famine in Darfur, Sudan.