基于k/v比值的库岸涉水滑坡分类

滑坡的分类是一切滑坡研究与治理的基础和前提.在总结分析一般滑坡的分类方法基础上,针对库岸涉水滑坡水动力条件复杂多变的特殊性,选择渗透系数k和库水位升降速率v这两个具有对立统一关系的决定性参数作为分类因子,提出了基于k/v比值的库岸涉水滑坡分类方法,并阐述了其合理性及理论意义.该分类方法将库岸涉水滑坡分为k/v＞1型和k/v＜1型两个类别,是一种动态的分类.该方法的提出突破了对滑坡分类的常规思维,有助于解决系统动力学在滑坡稳定性分析和预测中所面临的困境,适应滑坡稳定性研究的发展趋势,具有一定的可借鉴性和指导意义.     

新疆天山天池景区飞龙涧崩塌及其防治

飞龙涧崩塌位于新疆天山天池景区内,发育在天池冰碛湖堤东侧,三工河左岸陡崖上,4个崩塌体组成的一大型浅层崩塌.崩塌平面形态呈不规则的马蹄形,面积0.105 km2.飞龙涧大型崩塌是地质因素、地貌因素、气象因素、水文因素综合作用的结果;是激发因素--暴雨、有利的地质地形条件--基岩破碎、山高坡陡和地下水长期作用、河流冲刷等综合作用的结果.针对本区的社会条件和自然条件,提出了防崩减灾对策,具体分为工程措施和非工程措施.     

崩滑流雷达遥感应用潜力分析

综述了我国崩滑流（崩塌、滑坡、泥石流）遥感的应用现状；着重分析了成像雷达遥感在崩滑流识别、监测、预警中具有的独特优势，特别是随着新型成像雷达遥感（极化、干涉雷达）的发展，基于干涉雷达发展的差分干涉测量技术能以一量级甚至更小尺度测量地表形变，在崩滑流研究中能提供定量的动态信息，为崩滑流遥感应用研究注入了新的活力，开辟了新的思路；并指出以雷达（ＳＡＲ）遥感信息为主的多源信息复合解译，能为崩滑流灾害的调查提供更为方便、准确、及时、动态的信息．     

拉裂式崩塌的运动特征分析——以陕西延长县为例

利用离散元法对延长县拉裂式岩质崩塌进行了数值模拟,研究了拉裂式崩塌的运动过程,分析了其运动规律。根据崩塌的受力形式和运动特点,拉裂式崩塌的运动过程分为岩体原有节理的开裂变形、崩塌体与基岩碰撞的落体运动、崩塌体相互碰撞与堆积、坡体的二次变形破坏四个阶段。由于影响崩塌运动的因素很多,其运动形式也非常复杂,数值模拟得出崩塌的运动速度小于理论计算结果,运动距离与实际调查结果基本一致。因此数值模拟结果可用于预测该类型崩塌的影响范围,同时对工程实践具有指导意义。     

多次饱水下水化学作用对库岸土体的微结构效应研究

三峡库区水位涨落导致库岸土体长期处于饱水再失水的反复过程,水动力环境的改变导致其中产生复杂的水化学作用,进一步影响了库岸边坡的稳定性。采集库区库岸土样进行三次饱水再失水试验,测定三次饱水后溶液中离子浓度,观察饱水前后土体的微观结构。通过构建饱水溶液中离子浓度变化与库岸土体的多元回归方程,定量分析水化学作用对其结构参数的影响;通过微结构参数体现的宏观力学特征,进一步分析水化学作用对其工程力学性质的影响。研究发现:(1)库岸土体的颗粒特征主要受到饱水溶液中K~+、Mg~(2+)、Pb~(2+)、F~-、Ca~(2+)的影响,且K~+、Mg~(2+)、Pb~(2+)、F~-浓度与颗粒粒径呈负相关,与颗粒分维、颗粒分布分维呈正相关关系,而Ca~(2+)浓度则相反;(2)库岸土体中方解石和白云石矿物的溶解作用,溶液中K~+被吸附或与其他离子的置换反应会增强土的抗剪强度、内聚力和渗透性;(3)三次饱水下,库岸土体的力学强度增强。     

延安地区不同黄土崩塌类型对崩塌贡献率的研究

黄土崩塌是延安地区频发和广布的一种崩塌地质灾害类型,考虑赋存的自然与地质环境条件,以及人类工程活动的影响,将延安地区黄土崩塌分为水分浸湿型、盐蚀型、工程开挖型和窑洞型等4类,进而通过对延安地区地质灾害详细调查涉及的356处黄土崩塌的成果资料进行统计,采用贡献率法研究延安地区不同黄土崩塌类型与黄土崩塌的相关性。结果表明,工程开挖型和窑洞型对黄土崩塌的贡献率程度最高,盐蚀型对黄土崩塌的贡献率程度中等,水分浸湿型对黄土崩塌的贡献率程度最低。分析结果反映了延安地区黄土崩塌发育的实际情况,可供在黄土高原其他地区防灾减灾研究中参考应用。     

鹅公带古滑坡体防治方案分析

水库库岸滑坡是水库工程建设中普遍存在的问题,尤其是河道型水库,库区狭长,滑坡点多面广,库岸滑坡现象严重。阐述了库岸滑坡的防治原则、思路和方法,并针对鹅公带古滑坡体进行了防治方案的分析比选。     

四川石亭江流域汶川地震滑坡崩塌分布及控制因素分析

"5·12"汶川大地震引发了石亭江流域严重的滑坡、崩塌,沿江两岸红白镇、金花镇及上游矿区的滑坡、崩塌掩埋了公路、水电站,摧毁铁路并堰塞石亭江,造成了大量的人员伤亡及财产损失.震后在中国地调局的资助下,进行了1:5万野外地震次生灾害详细调查.研究结果表明,石亭江流域滑坡、崩塌分布在空间上具有明显的不均一性,即由石亭江下游...     

基于离散元的普洒崩塌过程分析研究

崩塌一旦发生,往往带来严重的生命财产损失。2017年8月28日10时30分左右贵州省纳雍县张家湾镇普洒村发生了灾难性的高位崩塌地质灾害,摧毁了普洒村居民区房屋,还有26人遇难,9人失踪,8人受伤。查明崩塌的基本特征及现场工程地质条件变得尤为重要,有利于找出诱发崩塌的关键性因素,分析崩塌的形成机制及运动过程,为此类灾害防治及早期识别提供理论依据。文中通过现场调查、无人机航拍、现场视频和已有地质资料查明斜坡工程地质条件、斜坡特征,分析崩塌运动过程,采用3DEC离散元数值模拟方法,对高陡斜坡在地下开采作用下崩塌所产生的机理、失稳模式、运动轨迹进行了全过程模拟,并将数值模拟结果与崩塌实际过程进行对比。结果表明：通过3DEC模拟地下开采诱发的崩塌过程,发现斜坡在地下开采的扰动下会产生大规模的崩塌。普洒崩塌的主要过程为：（1）煤矿的开采过程中,斜坡受到扰动,加剧岩体产生变形,上覆岩体出现开裂塌陷现象,坡顶出现拉裂缝;（2）采空区形成后,整个坡体出现不均匀沉降,裂缝进一步向下扩展,岩体破碎趋向临空面倾倒,开始脱离坡表,形成崩塌;（3）坡顶岩体变形剧烈,斜坡整体失稳,发生大规模崩塌;（4）崩塌块体间冲...     

多期次崩塌灾害的数值模拟研究

危岩体在西南地区分布广泛,易形成多次崩塌,为了研究在已经发生过崩塌灾害的地形上,后续崩塌落石的堆积特征,文中利用多期次崩塌模拟方法,能按照一定的概率反映出多次崩塌后崩塌堆积体的变化情况和威胁范围,补充了常规一次崩塌滚石计算结果的不足,为研究区后续一段时期内崩塌地质灾害的防治决策提供科学依据。文中以贵州省思南县徐家大塝崩塌为例,基于室内试验和数值模拟,结合GIS技术和三维崩塌软件进行危岩失稳的多期次崩塌数值模拟研究。利用物理实验获得的运动特征参数进行4个期次的崩塌数值模拟结果与野外调查结果基本吻合。通过多期次不同方量的模拟结果分析发现,几乎所有大粒径落石和大部分小粒径落石都停积在坡度小于35°的区域。90%以上的崩塌落石停积在废弃道路面30 m缓冲区内即居民区100 m外,落石在废弃道路往陡崖方向落石堆积百分比呈上升趋势;距居民区最近的大粒径落石主要在居民区平面距离60 m外,威胁居民区的可能性低,少量小粒径落石会滚落到居民区。文中的研究思路和技术方法对于多期次危岩崩塌方面的研究具有一定的参考价值和借鉴意义。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。