不同土壤类型中外源汞对白符跳（Folsomia candida）的毒性研究

参考国际标准化组织(ISO)颁布的跳虫毒性测试方法 ISO11267,分析了汞(Hg)在我国9种典型土壤中对白符跳(Folsomia candida)的急性毒性及繁殖毒性。发现Hg在不同类型土壤中对白符跳的半数致死浓度(LC₅₀)变化为(0.92～1.94) mg·kg^-1,而对白符跳繁殖产生影响的半数效应浓度(EC₅₀)变化范围为(0.98～2.43) mg·kg^-1,产生10%影响的浓度(EC10)变化范围为(0.29～1.40) mg·kg^-1 。将土壤的主要理化性质(pH、OM、CEC)与Hg对白符跳的EC₅₀进行相关性回归分析,发现土壤CEC与EC₅₀呈显著正相关关系(r=0.8624,p<0.01),随着土壤CEC的增大,Hg的EC₅₀值也趋于升高。因此,土壤CEC可能是导致不同类型土壤中汞对白符跳毒性差异的主要因素。本研究结果可为制定基于我国土壤类型的生态筛选值提供基础参考数据。     

土壤中铜和镍的植物毒性预测模型的种间外推验证

在基于物种敏感性分布法推导土壤金属生态阈值过程中,利用毒性预测模型对来源于不同土壤的毒理学数据进行归一化处理可消除土壤性质差异的影响,但目前建立的毒性预测模型仅限于少数物种。本研究通过比较土壤中小白菜、西红柿和大麦的铜和镍的毒性预测模型应用于其他高等植物的预测效果,以及归一化前后各物种毒性阈值的种内变异程度,考察了土壤中铜和镍的植物毒性预测模型种间外推的可行性和适用范围,解决了铜和镍土壤生态阈值导出过程中的方法学问题。土壤中镍对小白菜的毒性预测模型能较好地预测芥菜和青椒的镍毒性阈值,利用该模型对芥菜和青椒在不同土壤中的镍毒性阈值进行归一化后亦能显著降低其种内变异,其种内变异系数分别从1.18和1.25降至0.31和0.06;但将镍对小白菜、西红柿和大麦的毒性预测模型应用于莴笋和莴苣的毒性阈值预测时,在pH<6.0的酸性土壤中其预测值均小于实测值,其实测值与预测值的比值在3.2到6.8之间。对小麦、黄瓜和青椒的铜毒性阈值而言,小白菜模型预测效果优于西红柿和大麦模型。利用西红柿模型归一化黄瓜铜毒性阈值,其毒性阈值的种内变异系数从0.83降至0.14。大麦的铜毒性预测模型能较准确地预测水稻、洋葱、芥菜、包菜和萝卜的毒性阈值,且这5个物种的铜毒性阈值经大麦模型归一化后其种内变异均显著降低。本研究结果可为土壤中铜和镍的植物毒性预测模型的种间外推提供科学依据。     

全氟辛烷磺酸短期暴露对不同作物苗期生长的影响

全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)作为一种新型持久性有机污染物,目前国内外对其生态毒性研究主要集中在水环境领域,而高等植物的生态毒性数据尚不完善。因此,本研究采用内培养方式,选取小麦、大麦、小白菜、三叶草、绿豆作为供试植物,利用根伸长、芽伸长、地上部分生物量等评价指标,研究了PFOS短期暴露对不同供试作物苗期生长的影响,建立了PFOS和作物苗期生长的剂量-效应关系,并对不同的评价指标进行相关性分析,筛选出表征PFOS生态毒性的敏感植物。结果表明,不同供试作物培育3 d后,PFOS对其于不同毒性终点的最小EC₅₀值为：小麦352 mg·kg^-1(根伸长)、大麦434 mg·kg^-1(根伸长)、三叶草794 mg·kg^-1(地上部分生物量鲜重)、小白菜829 mg·kg^-1(地上部分生物量鲜重)、绿豆>1 000 mg·kg^-1,因此敏感程度依次为：小麦>大麦>三叶草>小白菜>绿豆。须根系作物小麦、大麦较直根系作物三叶草、小白菜和绿豆敏感,而须根系作物各评价指标的敏感程度依次为：根伸长>地上部分生物量鲜重>芽伸长>地上部分生物量干重,可见小麦的根伸长对PFOS污染最为敏感。各评价指标间均呈正相关关系,表明PFOS对同种植物的不同评价指标影响趋势一致。     

西红柿镍毒害的土壤主控因子和预测模型研究

选取我国有代表性的17种土壤,运用生态毒理学方法研究了土壤中外源镍(Ni)对西红柿的毒性,结果发现土壤中外源Ni对西红柿的生长毒性主要受土壤pH值、有机碳含量的影响.在供试淋洗(使用模拟的人工雨水滤洗定量的土壤样品)和非淋洗土壤中,Ni对西红柿生物量50%抑制的毒性阈值(EC50)范围分别从11mg·kg-1到932mg·kg-1和从7mg·kg-1到2055mg·kg-1,其最大值和最小值比例分别达到了85和294倍.土壤pH值是土壤中Ni对西红柿生长毒性的主控因子,进一步引入土壤有机碳因子时,淋洗和非淋洗土壤理化性质和EC50之间回归方程的决定系数R2由0.853和0.743分别提高到了0.925和0.824.利用土壤性状(土壤pH值、有机碳含量)可以较好地预测土壤中外源Ni对西红柿生长的毒性阈值.     

铜-磺胺嘧啶复合胁迫对蔬菜种子发芽的急性毒性效应

研究了黄潮土中常用兽药磺胺嘧啶(SD)与重金属铜(Cu)单一及复合污染对小白菜和西红柿种子发芽(发芽率、根伸长、芽伸长)的影响,分析了土壤中药物浓度与作物生长抑制的剂量-效应关系及复合污染的毒性效应。结果表明,无论是在Cu或SD单一污染物作用下,根伸长和芽伸长抑制率与污染物浓度显著相关(P0.01),发芽抑制率与污染物浓度不相关(P0.05);污染物对根伸长及芽伸长的抑制高于对种子发芽的抑制;SD对2种作物的毒性效应明显强于Cu,SD对小白菜和西红柿根伸长的ID50(抑制率为50%时污染物浓度)分别为1.7和33.6 mg·kg~(-1),而Cu为273.6和457.7 mg·kg~(-1)。Cu-SD复合污染,对西红柿的根和芽伸长的拮抗作用显著(P0.01);但对小白菜来说,在低浓度Cu(100 mg·kg~(-1))作用下,二者的联合拮抗作用不显著(P0.05),随Cu的增加,拮抗作用显著(P0.01)。     

应用生物配体模型研究湘江水体中铜的生物有效性

为评估湘江水体中铜的生物有效性,通过铜对青鳉的急性毒性实验确定铜对青鳉的半致死浓度(LC₅₀),然后利用生物配体模型(Biotic Ligand Model, BLM)确定青鳉的累积半致死浓度(LA₅₀)。同时对湘江水样的预测结果表明,铜对青鳉的LA₅₀为12.43 nmol?gw^-1;BLM预测的与实验观测的LC₅₀差异倍数小于2,表明BLM预测结果非常准确。在此基础上预测铜对青鳉LC₅₀预测范围为344.70～761.96 μg?L^-1。湘江各点水质最终急性值(FAV)相差不大(11.04～14.25 μg?L^-1),但水中溶解态铜含量相差较大(0.29～10.48 μg?L^-1),同时毒性单位值(TU)相差较大(0.06～1.48 μg?L^-1),其中最小值在舂陵水入湘江下游采样断面,最大值在株洲断面。在全部调查断面中,只有株洲断面TU大于1(1.48),说明株洲断面水中铜含量超过了该断面水中BLM确定的标准最大浓度1.48倍。     

O3浓度升高对麦田土壤碳、氮含量和酶活性的影响

近地层O₃作为全球最重要的大气污染物之一,其对作物的生长发育、土壤酶活性、土壤碳、氮的影响机制已成为人们关注的重要问题。采用开顶式气室(OTCs)法模拟研究O₃浓度升高对冬小麦土壤碳、氮含量和酶活性的影响。结果表明,O₃浓度升高导致麦田0~10 cm和10~20 cm土层的全碳(TC)和全氮(TN)含量呈现出下降的趋势。O₃浓度升高对土壤酶活性也有影响。在冬小麦灌浆期,O₃胁迫可促进土壤脱氢酶活性提高。当O₃浓度为120 nL·L^-1时,0~10 cm、10~20 cm和20~40 cm土层的脱氢酶活性分别比对照处理提高59.4%、51.5%和22.2%。O₃胁迫对土壤转化酶活性的影响随着冬小麦生长期和土壤采样深度的不同而发生变化。在冬小麦拔节期,O₃处理对不同土层脲酶活性的影响没有达到显著差异水平,但是在灌浆期,20~40 cm土层的脲酶活性随着O₃浓度的增加而提高,在120 nL·L^-1浓度O₃处理下脲酶活性比对照处理提高24.6%。在O₃胁迫条件下土壤转化酶活性与土壤全碳含量、土壤脲酶活性与土壤全氮含量均呈现出显著的正相关关系。     

土壤铜植物毒害的不同评价终点和室内外测定差别研究

本论文对山东陵县、湖南祁阳和浙江嘉兴3种性质差异较大的土壤上进行的室内外的土壤外源铜(Cu)的植物毒性试验结果进行了比较。结果发现3种室内评价终点(大麦根长、西红柿和小白菜苗期生物量)和田间植物(玉米、小麦、水稻和油菜产量)对土壤中Cu毒性的敏感性存在较大的差异。大麦根伸长和小白菜生物量法高估了土壤中Cu对田间小麦、玉米和水稻产量的毒害,而室内西红柿生物量法则低估了土壤中Cu对田间小麦、玉米和水稻产量的毒害。小白菜和田间油菜的敏感性接近,可以用室内小白菜苗期生物量作为土壤中Cu对田间油菜产量毒性评价的植物。当采用相同植物比较时,陵县小麦、祁阳玉米和嘉兴油菜的室内苗期值可以作为土壤Cu对相同田间植物产量的毒害作用(EC_(10))的评价指标。但是,室内苗期毒害指标会低估Cu对田间祁阳小麦和高估嘉兴水稻的毒害作用,说明土壤Cu植物毒害室内外测定的差别受土壤和植物的影响。     

土壤水溶态铜对小白菜的毒害效应及其预测模型

土壤中铜(Cu)重金属的生物毒性/有效性主要取决于它们在土壤液相中含量和土壤溶液的性质。探寻土壤有效态Cu的生物毒害效应,表征量化其与土壤溶液性质关系,可为土壤Cu的环境风险评价提供参考。选取17种典型农田土壤,探讨了有效态Cu(土壤孔隙水以及CaCl_2浸提态)对小白菜生长的毒性效应及其预测模型。结果表明:土壤孔隙水中Cu对小白菜生长10%抑制的毒性阈值值(EC_(10))和50%抑制的毒性阈值(EC_(50)),最大值与最小值相差为14.7和14.6倍;同样,对于CaCl_2提取态Cu的EC_(10)和EC_(50),最大值与最小值相差12.7和7.7倍,表明土壤溶液性质对水溶性Cu对小白菜的毒性阈值影响很大。建立了土壤溶液的重要因子(溶解性有机碳、土壤溶液pH值、电导率、全硫含量、Ca~(2+)、Mg~(2+)、K~+、Na~+)和水溶性Cu阈值之间的多元回归关系,结果显示,土壤溶液性质可以较好地预测水溶性Cu对小白菜的毒性阈值。同时,土壤溶液中Mg~(2+)、K~+和S的含量是控制孔隙水中Cu对小白菜生长毒性的最重要因子,单一的S能分别解释34%的EC_(10)变异,K~+解释26%的EC_(50)变化。本研究结果可为陆地环境中水溶性Cu的风险评价提供基础。     

全氟辛基磺酸及其替代产品的内分泌干扰效应评价

为研究全氟辛基磺酸(PFOS)及其替代品的内分泌干扰效应,将重组人雌激素/雄激素/孕激素/甲状腺激素/维甲酸受体基因的双杂交酵母暴露于不同浓度的PFOS及替代品中,并结合体外代谢活化技术检测直接和间接的类/抗激素活性。结果表明,被替代品PFOS表现为雄激素受体、甲状腺受体和维甲酸受体拮抗剂,且在代谢活化后新增了雌激素受体拮抗效应,其半数效应浓度(EC₅₀)在3.0×10^-4～4.8×10^-3 g·L^-1之间;同时,4种替代化学品没有任何效应检出,说明不会通过与核受体结合干扰天然激素的正常功能。研究结果说明,与原化学品相比,替代产品的应用在内分泌干扰效应方面可能具有更低的环境风险。     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Rapid,recurring, structured survey versus bioblitz for generating biodiversity data and analysis with a multispecies abundance model

A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

A palaeo-hydrogeological model for arsenic contamination in southern and south-east Asia

An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Threats to intact tropical peatlands and opportunities for their conservation

Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.