一种赤腹松鼠种群数量的估计方法

赤腹松鼠剥食树皮的行为对林木危害严重,根据野外长期的观察和研究发现,赤腹松鼠在剥落树皮上遗留下来的上门齿齿印间距具有个体差异,可以用作个体识别的依据.对2003年监测样地内赤腹松鼠在剥落树皮上的齿印间距测量记录,并统计分析以估计赤腹松鼠的个体数量.结果表明:种群数量与危害率的相关系数为0.876,P=0.01,表现出很强的正相关关系;显示在较小面积内,该方法可以用来估计赤腹松鼠的个体数量.同时对该方法的基本条件和局限进行了讨论.图2表4参10     

青藏高原东部原始林下地表主要苔藓斑块特征及其影响因素

引入并应用斑块概念对大渡河上游藓类-冷杉原始林下地表1hm^2面积的锦丝藓、大羽藓、赤茎藓、塔藓、锦丝-赤茎藓等五种地表苔藓斑块结构特征作了调查分析，并同时测定了斑块相关环境因子（空气温度、空气湿度、基质湿度、光照强度、乔木盖度、灌木盖度、草本盖度及生物量、凋落物盖度）。对数据进行综合分析发现，不同斑块类型在生物量、个体密度、层片厚度和物种丰富度上都表现出一定的差异性，所调查环境因素各个方面在五种斑块之间都表现出较强的差异性．且各类斑块的结构特征与环境因子间分别表现山很强的相关性。影响斑块结构特征的最主要因素是藓丛表面空气温度，空气湿度、光照强度和草本层盖度、灌木层的盖度等也对斑块特征产生重要影响，而草本层生物器、凋落物盖度及乔木层盖度仅对个别斑块的结构特征产生影响，基质湿度并未对斑块特征产生显著影响，可能是因为不同藓类生长基质不同所致。     

岩石边坡生境形态结构特征对植被自然恢复能力的指示性

构建植被恢复指数(IVR),对鲁中山区公路花岗岩边坡的植被自然恢复成效进行样方评价,识别影响植被自然恢复能力的关键生境因子,并建立基于岩缝与岩台面积指数和恢复年限的植被恢复成效预测模型.结果表明,不同生境条件下公路岩石边坡植被的自然恢复效果差异较大,样方IVR的最高值和最低值分别为1.89和0.29,恢复较差样方(A)组平均盖度为35.7％,平均地上生物量为147.7 g·m-2,分别不及恢复较好样方(C)组1/2和1/3;岩缝与岩台面积、恢复年限、岩台面积、平均土层厚度、岩缝面积、坡位和岩台土层厚度这7个生境因子与IVR密切相关,其参数值在A组和C组间差异显著(P＜0.05),表明岩石边坡植被自然恢复成效和恢复能力与生境形态结构特征有很大关联性,而岩缝与岩台发育程度和数量多寡对其影响最大.岩缝与岩台面积指数是指示边坡裸岩植被自然恢复能力和预测植被自然恢复成效的重要参数.     

长白山区公路对路域植物物种组成及多样性的影响

采用样线法对长白山区公路旁天然次生林和原始阔叶林的植物物种组成及多样性进行调查。分别选取具有代表性的两个试验点,在公路两侧且其垂直走向布设3条相互平行的样线,间隔5m。在样线上布设样点,调查的生态因子包括光强、温度及湿度;样方调查分为灌木和草本样方,分别记录种类、高度、盖度、株数。根据公路两侧生态因子、灌草植物组成及多样性变化情况,分析公路建设的生态影响。结果表明：（1）随着离公路距离的增加,光照、温度、湿度等环境因子呈现规律性变化,距离公路10m的位置是生态因子变化从剧烈到缓和的转折点;（2）公路建设对植物组成产生影响,随着离公路距离的增加,呈现从喜光植物到耐阴植物的变化,0～20m之间是优势种变化较剧烈的范围,而10m之内和20m之外样方之间优势种变化不大;（3）受路域环境因子改变的影响,公路建设对沿线植物的多样性影响包括正负两种,既增加了路域植物的多样性,同时也破坏了原生植被群落的稳定性;（4）从长白山区公路对草本、灌木植物组成及生物多样性影响的范围和程度来看,草本的影响范围超过20m,灌木的影响范围达到10m,影响范围：草本灌木。随着与公路距离的增加,公路对植物组成及多样性的影响程度降低。     

围封和放牧对科尔沁沙地群落物种多样性与地上生物量的影响

以科尔沁沙地自由放牧和围封10年的沙质草地为研究对象,采用野外调查与室内分析的方法,分析了围封和放牧对科尔沁沙地群落物种多样性与地上生物量的影响,旨在为退化沙地恢复与重建提供科学依据。试验选择围封和自由放牧草地的典型地段,分别设置50个面积1m~2的草本样方,调查每个样方的种类组成及其特征值(盖度、高度和密度),采用针刺法测定样方总盖度和每种植物的分盖度;每种植物随机选5株,用直尺测量其伸长高度;对样方中出现的植物进行分类,记录同一种植物出现的个数;采用齐地面刈割法调查其地上生物量。主要结论如下,(1)经过围栏封育后,群落物种数提高了67%。方差分析表明,围封群落的盖度(F=90.536,n=50,P0.001)、高度(F=63.964,n=50,P0.001)、密度(F=10.274,n=50,P=0.001 8)以及地上生物量(F=83.64,n=50,P0.001)显著大于放牧群落,分别提高了178%、100%、67%和201%。围封和放牧群落均以一年生草本占绝对优势,分别为66%和73%,围封使群落多年生草本的优势度增加了52%。(2)围封群落物种丰富度显著高于放牧群落,但多样性指数没有显著性差异,均匀度指数显著低于放牧群落。(3)回归分析表明,放牧群落的物种多样性与地上生物量呈现显著负二次函数关系(P0.05),而围封围封群落物种多样性和地上生物量的关系不显著。     

珠穆朗玛峰绒布沟西藏沙棘生境类型及海拔梯度下表型变异

西藏沙棘(Hippophae tibetana)是沙棘属中最进化的种类,也是青藏高原上分布较广的沙棘种类.但是目前几乎未见关于西藏沙棘的基础生态学研究报道.根据珠穆朗玛峰绒布沟沿海拔梯度进行的西藏沙棘群落样方调查,采用二元指示种分析(TWINSPAN)法和去势对应分析(DCA)法,研究了海拔梯度下西藏沙棘的生境类型、影响其分布的环境主导因子和表型变异规律.结果表明,珠峰绒布沟西藏沙棘生境可以分为5个类型:河边砾石滩地、河谷灌丛草地、沙石滩地、草甸和柳树林缘.DCA排序结果反映其群落的分布和生长主要受海拔和土壤湿度两种环境主导因子的影响.通过有关数据的回归分析发现,西藏沙棘植株的叶宽、基径、高度和盖度都随海拔的升高呈显著减小的趋势,但叶片长度与海拔不显著相关.西藏沙棘的盖度随样方与河水实际距离的增大而减小.图3表2参31     

半干旱黄土区自然恢复与人工造林恢复植被群落对比研究

为研究半干旱黄土区高效植被恢复途径,选取陕西省吴起县境内的合沟封禁流域和柴沟人工造林流域为研究区,在两流域内,沿顺坡和横坡方向,选择一系列20 m×20 m的样地,各组成2条样带。在每个样地内的对角线交点和对角线四分之一处选取5个样方进行植被调查,草本样方和乔灌样方的尺寸分别为1 m×1 m和5 m×5 m。共获得草本样方185个、乔灌木样方80个,其中,合沟封禁流域105个,均为草本样方,柴沟人工造林流域草本样方与乔灌样方各80个。运用植物生态学和植物群落学方法,调查各样方内的植物种类、株数、株高、盖度、地上生物量以及树木基茎、树高、冠幅等植被群落特征指标,并在此基础上对两流域的植被群落特征进行对比分析。结果表明：（1）两流域的植被种类共61种,其中柴沟人工造林流域46种,合沟封禁流域51种,共存物种36种;（2）经过10年生态恢复,柴沟人工造林流域已形成乔-灌-草群落,合沟封禁流域仍为草本群落,且两流域草本群落均以铁杆蒿（Artemisia sacrorum Ledeb.）和茭蒿（Artemisiagiraldii Pamp.）为主要建群种;（3）柴沟人工造林流域的植被盖度、平均高、生物量均明显高于合沟封禁流域的相应指标。两流域植物群落Simpson指数和Shannon-Weiner指数差异较小,Sorensen指数为0.742,主要草本植物种的指标差异不显著。以上特征反映出,在半干旱黄土区,适宜的人工造林可加速该区植被恢复的进程。     

汶川地震滑坡体自然植被恢复及影响因子——以龙溪–虹口自然保护区为例

为了解汶川地震后滑坡体的植被恢复状况及驱动因子,于2012年8-9月在都江堰市四川龙溪–虹口国家级自然保护区对地震滑坡体上的植物物种组成、生长状况及环境因子进行了调查,共调查了127个10 m×10 m样方;并利用广义线性模型分析了影响滑坡体自然植被恢复的关键因子.结果显示:(1)滑坡体生长的维管植物有38科67属75种,以菊科(13种)和蔷薇科(7种)物种最为丰富,其余科的种类都较少;(2)物种生活型方面,草本植物种类最多,有47种,占总数的62.67%;其次为木本植物,有25种(包括灌木19种,小乔木6种);藤本植物仅3种;(3)滑坡体植被类型主要为灌丛及灌草丛,进一步可划分为10个群系,主要以灌丛为主,川莓(Rubus setchuenensis)和光滑悬钩子(R.tsangii)为主要的建群种,在滑坡体上常构成单优势片层或混合生长形成共优种;(4)植被总盖度大于30%的样方占62.99%,最高达85%;植被平均高度超过1 m的样方占60.63%,最高达2.5 m;植物物种数超过5种的样方占84.25%,最多的有17种;(5)广义线性模型结果表明,坡度、样方位置、距林缘最近距离以及地表砾石盖度为影响滑坡体自然植被恢复的关键因子:坡度越大,灌木盖度越低,植物物种数也越少(B0,P0.001);砾石盖度越高,植被总盖度、灌木盖度和植被平均高度都越低,植物物种数也越少(B0,P0.05);距林缘最近距离越远,植被总盖度和平均高度都越高(B0,P0.05);残留植被盖度越高,灌木层的盖度也越高(B0,P0.05);位于滑坡体下部样方的植被总盖度显著高于中部和上部(B0,P0.01).研究表明,汶川地震后滑坡体上的植被大多都能够进行自然恢复,并逐渐向灌木和乔木林方向正向演替,但不同区域的恢复速度和建群种会存在差异;次生演替初期,小尺度范围内地形条件及地表基质状况的差异性对植被的恢复状况以及演替进程都有着显著的影响.     

山西太岳山森林群落分布及其与环境因子的关系

研究太岳山群落分布及其与环境因子之间的关系,旨在为深入研究太岳山群落资源、生境和群落学特征奠定基础,亦为太岳山资源开发利用提供理论依据和实践参考。以山西太岳山森林群落为研究对象,从海拔1 600~2 200 m,海拔每上升100 m设置1个样地,每个样地由8个10 m×10 m的样方组成,并分别在每一个样方内取2个5 m×5 m的灌木样方和4个1m×1 m草本样方,共7个样地,50个样方。根据7个样地50个样方的调查数据,采用多元回归树(MRT)对群落进行分类;采用典范对应分析(canonical correspondence analysis,CCA)进行排序分析,旨在研究太岳山森林群落的植被分布格局。结果如下,(1)MRT分类将植被划分为6个群落类型。(2)太岳山森林群落样方与环境因子的CCA排序结果显示,12个环境因子对物种分布的解释量为40.78%,Monte Carlo置换检验结果显示,制约森林群落类型分布格局的主要环境因子是海拔、坡度、坡向和土壤p H值。(3)利用偏典范对应分析(PCCA)定量分离地形、土壤及其交互作用对植被格局总体变异的影响,分析表明,土壤因子和地形因子解释了物种格局变化的40.78%,其中地形因子占13.61%,土壤因子占19.53%,地形因子与土壤因子交互作用解释的部分为7.64%。地形因子和p H值对太岳山森林群落的分布影响最大,是决定植物群落空间分布的主导因子。     

环境因子和火干扰因子对喀纳斯泰加林柳兰分布的影响

喀纳斯泰加林植被的生长和分布受火干扰和环境因子的共同作用,为了解喀纳斯泰加林林下柳兰分布与生态因子的关系,促进种群扩繁,共设置了35个样地进行调查和分析。建立柳兰重要值与生态因子矩阵,利用CCA分析法对不同火烧林分中柳兰的生长分布状况与林火烈度、火后时间、海拔、坡度、坡向、郁闭度、土壤pH值、速效钾、土壤有机质、灌木层盖度、草本层盖度和草本层物种多样性指数等20个生态因子的关系进行了分析。结果显示,第一轴主要反映林火烈度、海拔、坡向,灌木层盖度、pH值、有机质、全钾和速效钾的变化;第二轴主要反映林火烈度、火后时间、草本层盖度、坡向、坡位、土壤容重、电导率、有机质、有效磷和全氮的变化。对柳兰分布有显著影响的生态因子是林火烈度、有机质、海拔、坡向、灌木层盖度、土壤容重、全钾和速效钾,前两轴的累计贡献率为72.48%。柳兰适合在土壤呈弱酸性、海拔低、阳坡、土壤容重小、土壤有机质、全钾和速效钾含量高的环境中生长。柳兰是阳性植物,是火烧后的先锋植物。对影响柳兰分布的生态因子进行定量分离,结果发现环境因子和火干扰因子对柳兰样地物种分布的解释能力为88.2%,显示出较好的排序效果。喀纳斯泰加林受人为干扰较少,柳兰所在植物群落与环境保持了良好的对应关系,生态因子与物种分布呈显著相关(P=0.003),表明CCA排序结果可以解释生态因子对物种分布的影响程度。     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Rapid,recurring, structured survey versus bioblitz for generating biodiversity data and analysis with a multispecies abundance model

A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

A palaeo-hydrogeological model for arsenic contamination in southern and south-east Asia

An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Threats to intact tropical peatlands and opportunities for their conservation

Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.