Climate change mitigation in Austria and Switzerland: The pitfalls of federalism in greening decentralized building policies

The present paper analyses and compares how federalism in Austria and Switzerland affected climate change mitigation in the fully decentralized building sectors of the two countries during the Kyoto Period (1990–2012). This is of interest because the environmental significance of federal political systems is still contested. We first review the literature on federalism in the context of environmental and climate policymaking, and we show that the effects of federal political systems can be positive or negative (depending on interactions between politics and problem characteristics). We then summarize the two qualitative country studies. By analysing who initiated and coordinated respective policies at what time and why, we show that respective policy changes neither emerged bottom-up nor diffused between provinces/cantons, although the latter are fully responsible for building policies. While most policy changes were triggered by federal and/or European Union interventions, the provinces/cantons usually delayed and/or watered down policy changes to smallest common denominator solutions. Based on these findings we conclude that the building sectors of the two countries became more efficient despite, not because of federalism. Against this background we recommend centralizing building policies, or to engage sub-national actors in national target-setting early on.     

Will Evolving Climate Conditions Increase the Risk of Floods of the Large U.S.‐Canada Transboundary Richelieu River Basin?

In spring 2011, an unprecedented flood hit the complex eastern United States (U.S.)–Canada transboundary Lake Champlain–Richelieu River (LCRR) Basin, destructing properties and inducing negative impacts on agriculture and fish habitats. The damages, covered by the Governments of Canada and the U.S., were estimated to C$90M. This natural disaster motivated the study of mitigation measures to prevent such disasters from reoccurring. When evaluating flood risks, long‐term evolving climate change should be taken into account to adopt mitigation measures that will remain relevant in the future. To assess the impacts of climate change on flood risks of the LCRR basin, three bias‐corrected multi‐resolution ensembles of climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used to force a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution, distributed hydrological model. The analysis of the hydrological simulations indicates that the 20‐year return period flood (corresponding to a medium flood) should decrease between 8% and 35% for the end of the 21st Century (2070–2099) time horizon and for the high‐emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The reduction in flood risks is explained by a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration expected with the future warming of the region. Nevertheless, due to the large climate inter‐annual variability, short‐term flood probabilities should remain similar to those experienced in the recent past.     

Making cities resilient to climate change: identifying “win–win” interventions

Urbanisation is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanisation level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanisation has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with increase in climate-induced extreme weather events and more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countries. Cities are overwhelmed with worsening congestion, air pollution, crime, waste management, and unemployment problems. Lack of resources and capacity constraints are other factors that discourage cities from embarking on climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways. Given the multitude of problems faced, there is simply no appetite for stand-alone urban climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Urban mitigation and adaptation goals will have to be achieved as co-benefits of interventions targeted at solving pressing urban problems and challenges. The paper identifies administratively simple urban interventions that can help cities solve some of their pressing service delivery and urban environmental problems, while simultaneously mitigating rising urban GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change.     

Mind the gap: institutional considerations for gender-inclusive climate change policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper positions climate change against the backdrop of gender, premised on the understanding that neither climate change impacts nor responses are gender neutral, therefore institutions need to respond accordingly. Institutions play a central role in facilitating policy effects and forming major nodes of interaction as well as determining the accentuation of risk. Drawing on examples from different parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper seeks to elucidate why women should be placed at the heart of climate change interventions. Establishing the appropriate connections between gender and climate change will enhance the opportunities for problem-solving and can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of policy-making. The gendered aspects of climate change and environmental relations are analysed by using an African feminist approach as the theoretical framework to expand and expound upon this position. This paper also investigates institutional matters pertaining to the management of environmental resources and highlights some of the constraints that need to be overcome in order to ensure the inclusion and empowerment of women in the management of these resources. It concludes by calling for a thorough understanding of the gender-based power relations in the agendas and activities of environmental governance institutions at all levels in society.     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

Examining municipal response to a provincial climate action planning mandate in British Columbia,Canada

The engagement of UK local authorities is vital if national government is to meet its climate change commitments. However, with no mandatory targets at local government level, other drivers must explain engagement. Using a Geographic Information System, this study compares the spatial distribution of action on climate change based on past actions and stated intentions to a suite of relevant independent variables. The Action Index created is among the first to quantify climate change engagement beyond a simple binary measure and provides a useful comparative study to recent work in the USA. The Index enables investigation of both mitigation and adaptation, which show different trends in relation to some variables. The study shows that action is strongest where the voting habits of the local population suggest environmental concern and where neighbouring local authorities are also engaging in action on climate change. Physical vulnerability to the effects of climate change is a motivator for action only where the dangers are obvious. Action is less likely where other resource-intensive issues such as crime and housing exist within a local authority area.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES OF THE TSENGWEN CREEK WATERSHED IN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study presents a methodology to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the Tsengwen creek watershed, Taiwan. Tsengwen reservoir, located in the Tsengwen creek watershed, is a multipurpose reservoir with a primary function to supply water for the ChiaNan Irrigation District. A simulation procedure was developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources system. The simulation procedure includes a streamflow model, a weather generation model, a sequent peak algorithm, and a risk assessment process. Three climate change scenarios were constructed based on the predictions of three General Circulation Models (CCCM, GFDL, and GISS). The impacts of climate change on streamflows were simulated, and, for each climate change scenario, the agricultural water demand was adjusted based on the change of potential evapotranspiration. Simulation results indicated that the climate change may increase the annual and seasonal streamflows in the Tsengwen creek watershed. The increase in streamflows during wet periods may result in serious flooding. In addition, despite the increase in streamflows, the risk of water deficit may still increase from between 4 and 7 percent to between 7 and 13 percent due to higher agricultural water demand. The simulation results suggest that the reservoir capacity may need to be expanded. In response to the climate change, four strategies are suggested: (1) strengthen flood mitigation measures, (2) enhance drought protection strategies, (3) develop new water resources technology, and (4) educate the public.     

Linkages between biodiversity conservation and global climate change in small island developing States (SIDS)

Global climate change is an important cause of biodiversity loss. The conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources are key factors that can be effectively used to minimize the adverse impacts of global climate change. Efforts to understand and address the linkages between global climate change and biodiversity loss are both urgent and timely. Integrating responses related to these two global environmental challenges is especially relevant for small island developing States (SIDS) because the adverse impacts of climate change can impose severe stresses on biodiversity resources that are fragile, vulnerable and already under stress and the people who depend upon them. This paper argues that comprehensive assessments of adverse impacts of global climate change on the biodiversity resources of SIDS, and an improved understanding of relevant climate change related adaptation measures and sustainable energy policies (that are based on the principles of conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources) will enable SIDS to become more resilient and to develop better response capacities.     

Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil

This study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimization energy system model MESSAGE‐BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade‐offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector and to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NEW YORK CITY'S WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: It has been well established that the greenhouse gas loading of the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid 19th century. Consequently, shifts in the earth's radiative balance are expected with accompanying alterations to the earth's climate. With these anticipated, and perhaps already observable, changes in both global and regional climate, managers of regional water resources seek insight to the possible impacts climate change may have on their present and future water supplies. The types and degrees of impacts that climate change may have on New York City's water supply system were assessed in a study of a watershed at Allaben, New York. Hypothetical scenarios of future climate and climate change projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used in conjunction with the WatBal hydrological model and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to ascertain how runoff and soil moisture from this watershed may change in a warmer climate. For the worst case predictions, the results indicate that within the century of the 2000s, the watershed's air temperature may increase up to about 11°F, while its precipitation and runoff may decrease by about 13 and 30 percent, respectively. If this watershed is typical of the others within the New York City water supply system, the system's managers should consider implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies in preparation for the worst of these possible future conditions.     

Capacity for climate change planning: assessing metropolitan responses in the United States

Political inaction at the federal level in the United States has driven increased attention to the importance of planning for climate change at the metropolitan level. This study reports on a survey of 25 regional councils in the United States that measures the extent to which they have adopted climate change plans and to identify the factors that influence their ability to implement climate change initiatives. The findings revealed that a majority of regional councils are involved in planning for and seeking to reduce climate change, and that existing efforts in complementary policy domains make this involvement possible. The findings support a multi-level framework to assess the institutional capacity of regional councils to implement climate change policy and planning in a metropolitan area.     

Moving from agenda to action: evaluating local climate change action plans

Climate change is conventionally recognised as a large-scale issue resolved through regional or national policy initiatives. However, little research has been done to directly evaluate local climate change action plans. This study examines 40 recently adopted local climate change action plans in the US and analyses how well they recognise the concepts of climate change and prepare for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The results indicate that local climate change action plans have a high level of ‘awareness’, moderate ‘analysis capabilities’ for climate change, and relatively limited ‘action approaches’ for climate change mitigation. The study also identifies specific factors influencing the quality of these local jurisdictional plans. Finally, it provides policy recommendations to improve planning for climate change at the local level.     

Transformation of rural communities: lessons from a local self-initiative for building resilience in the Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands is vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change, where people’s livelihoods and their well-being are threatened, especially the viability of isolated communities. Realising the increasing risks from climate change on communities, government, in partnership with aid-donor partners, has invested millions of dollars in climate change projects, through mitigation and adaptation strategies. As a form of adaptation, the government invests in programmes aimed at increasing the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable communities through landscape and seascape projects across the rural communities. Focusing on the “transformation concept” as a long-term adaptation strategy and enlargement of climate engineering and ecological resilience concepts, the paper discusses why building resilience from transformation of rural communities, as well as from landscape and seascape projects, would benefit communities and relevant authorities. This paper describes the findings of a study on two rural villages, Keigold and Mondo, from Ranogha Islands, Western Province, in Solomon Islands, where 80% of households decided to relocate from their old village “Mondo” to their new home “Keigold” after an earthquake in 2007, as part of a self-initiative. The reallocation process can be seen as a case of pro-active community transformation that provides valuable lessons to other rural communities that may be forced to move due to impacts from natural catastrophes, including those explained by climate change risks. Lessons from this experience suggest that policy-makers and non-government organisations should consider and empower local transformation initiatives as a way to building long-term adaptation to climate change.     

The role of scale in integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

By using a scale framework, we examine how cross-scale interactions influence the implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation actions in different urban sectors. Based on stakeholder interviews and content analysis of strategies and projects relevant to climate adaptation and mitigation in the cities of Copenhagen and Helsinki, we present empirical examples of synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation that are driven by the cross-scale interactions. These examples show that jurisdictional and institutional scales shape the implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies, projects and tasks at the management scale, creating benefits of integrated solutions, but also challenges. Investigating the linkages between adaptation and mitigation through a scale framework provides new knowledge for urban climate change planning and decision-making. The results increase the understanding of why adaptation and mitigation are sometimes handled as two separate policy areas and also why attempts to integrate the two policies may fail.     

Southwest climate gap: poverty and environmental justice in the US Southwest

This article examines the “climate gap” in the Southwest US (Arizona and New Mexico), referring to the “disproportionate and unequal implications of climate change and climate change mitigation” for “people of color and the poor” [Shonkoff, S.B., et al., 2011. The climate gap: environmental health and equity implications of climate change mitigation policies in California. Climatic Change, 109 (Suppl. 1), S485–S503]. The climate and poverty relationship is examined using multi-scaled analysis across three indicators of climate vulnerability, focusing on connections to health, food, and energy during the period 2010–2012. We provide an overview of climate-related social vulnerability in the Southwest based on available federal, state, and county-level census data. We then summarise the results from a stakeholder workshop and in-depth interviews about climate vulnerabilities with social service providers in southern Arizona. We identify a significant Southwest climate gap based on census data and interview findings about climate vulnerability especially relating to high levels of poverty, health disparities, and increasing costs for energy, water, and food. We find that grassroots and community organisations have mobilised to respond to climate and social vulnerability, yet resources for mitigation and adaptation are insufficient given the high level of need. Confronting a changing climate that is projected to be hotter, drier, and with the potential to reach new thresholds, we suggest that more research needs to be done to understand the social and spatial characteristics of climate risk and how low-income populations embody and experience climate risk, and adapt to a changing climate.     

Perceptions of climate change on the Island of Providencia

Climate change-related impacts have the capacity to substantially influence Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean. Currently, many SIDS are engaged in large-scale vulnerability assessments that aim to identify, analyse, and inform solutions to mitigate climate change-related impacts. Many of these assessments, while useful, place little emphasis on the local stakeholders' perceptions of climate change. One such Caribbean community impacted by climate-related change is Providence Island in Colombia. Using a vulnerability assessment framework (Marshall, P.A. et al. 2010. A framework for social adaptation to climate change: sustaining tropical coastal communities and industries. Gland: IUCN Publication Services), researchers interviewed island residents (N = 23) about their perceptions of climate change, impacts on the local environment, and how the island community may adapt. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using a priori and open coding to identify patterns of and relationships between stakeholders' responses. Results indicate that local perceptions of climate change are linked to (1) environmental knowledge, (2) environmental awareness, attitudes, and beliefs, and (3) perceptions of risk. Implications for local adaptive strategies, education, communication, and suggestions for engagement at the local level are discussed.     

A question of ‘fit’: local perspectives on top-down flood mitigation policies in Vermont

Despite consensus on the need to adapt to climate change, who should adapt, and how, remain open questions. While local-level actions are essential to adaptation, state and federal governments can play a substantial role in adaptation. In this paper, we investigate local perspectives on state-level flood mitigation policies in Vermont as a means of analysing what leads top-down adaptations to be effective in mobilizing local action. Drawing on interviews with town officials, we delineate local-level perspectives on Vermont's top-down policies and use those perspectives to develop a conceptual framework that presents the ‘fit’ between top-down policies and the local-level context as comprised of three components: Receptivity, Ease of Participation, and Design. We explain how these components and their interactions influence local-level action. This analysis points to how careful consideration of the components of ‘fit’ may lead to greater local-level uptake of top-down adaptation policies.     

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic,Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.     

Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate1

Stedinger, Jery R. and Veronica W. Griffis, 2011. Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):506‐513. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00545.x Abstract: Modeling variations in flood risk due to climate change and climate variability are a challenge to our profession. Flood‐risk computations by United States (U.S.) federal agencies follow guidelines in Bulletin 17 for which the latest update 17B was published in 1982. Efforts are underway to update that remarkable document. Additional guidance in the Bulletin as to how to address variation in flood risk over time would be welcome. Extensions of the log‐Pearson type 3 model to include changes in flood risk over time would be relatively easy mathematically. Here an example of the use of a sea surface temperature anomaly to anticipate changes in flood risk from year to year in the U.S. illustrates this opportunity. Efforts to project the trend in the Mississippi River flood series beg the question as to whether an observed trend will continue unabated, has reached its maximum, or is really nothing other than climate variability. We are challenged with the question raised by Milly and others: Is stationarity dead? Overall, we do not know the present flood risk at a site because of limited flood records. If we allow for historical climate variability and climate change, we know even less. But the issue is not whether stationarity is dead – the issue is how to use all the information available to reliably forecast flood risk in the future: “Where do we go from here?”     

Understanding consumer behaviour and adaptation planning responses to climate-driven environmental change in Canada's parks and protected areas: a climate futurescapes approach

Parks and protected areas are a global ecological, social and health resource visited by over 8 billion people annually. Their use can yield substantial benefits, but only if a balance between ecological integrity and sustainable visitation is struck. This research explores the potential influence of climate-driven environmental change on visitation to North America's most popular glacier, the Athabasca Glacier in Jasper National Park, Canada. Photorealistic environmental visualizations were used to gauge visitors’ perceptions of environmental change and potential impacts on consumer behaviour. Results suggest that impacts could substantially diminish the site's pull as a tourism destination. Rather than improving visitation prospects, expert-proposed adaptations underestimated the importance of perceived naturalness and contributed to further potential decline. Findings are relevant to protected areas planning and management. They suggest that a natural path to climate change adaptation is the best way to support both ecological integrity and the long-term tourism pull of protected areas.