Climate change,food security,and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to increase the region’s susceptibility and constrain its adaptive capacity. Climate change is commonly recognized as a major issue likely to have negative consequences on food security and livelihoods in the region. This paper reviews three bodies of scholarship that have evolved somewhat separately, yet are inherently interconnected: climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods. The paper develops a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and shows how food security’s vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets. Food security represents one of several livelihood outcomes. The framework shows how several research paradigms relate to the issue of food security and climate change and provides a guide for empirical investigations. Recognizing these interconnections can help in the development of more effective policies and programs. The framework is applied here to synthesize findings from an array of studies in sub-Saharan Africa dealing with vulnerability to climate change, food security, and livelihoods.     

Climate change and food security: a Sri Lankan perspective

There is growing concern in Sri Lanka over the impact of climate change, variability and extreme weather events on food production, food security and livelihoods. The link between climate change and food security has been mostly explored in relation to impacts on crop production or food availability aspects of food security, with little focus on other key dimensions, namely food access and food utilization. This review, based on available literature, adopted a food system approach to gain a wider perspective on food security issues in Sri Lanka. It points to several climate-induced issues posing challenges for food security. These issues include declining agriculture productivity, food loss along supply chains, low livelihood resilience of the rural poor and prevalence of high levels of undernourishment and child malnutrition. Our review suggests that achieving food security necessitates action beyond building climate resilient food production systems to a holistic approach that is able to ensure climate resilience of the entire food system while addressing nutritional concerns arising from impacts of climate change. Therefore, there is a pressing need to work towards a climate-smart agriculture system that will address all dimensions of food security. With the exception of productivity of a few crop species, our review demonstrates the dearth of research into climate change impacts on Sri Lanka’s food system. Further research is required to understand how changes in climate may affect other components of the food system including productivity of a wider range of food crops, livestock and fisheries, and shed light on the causal pathways of climate-induced nutritional insecurity.     

Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries

Global warming is perceived as one of the biggest global health risks of the twenty-first century and a threat to the achievement of sustainable (economic) development; especially in developing countries, climate change is believed to further exacerbate existing vulnerability to disease and food security risks, because their populations are, for example, more reliant on agriculture and more vulnerable to droughts and have a lower adaptive capacity. Furthermore, the health-related impacts of climate change are threatening to undo decades of development policies. The interactions between climate and non-climate factors are of vital importance in shaping human vulnerability to global warming. Climate change cannot be seen as ‘a stand-alone risk factor,’ but rather as an amplifier of existing health and food security risks and an additional strain on institutional infrastructures. In order to avoid a multiplication of health risks in the developing world, there is a need to better understand the multifaceted and complex linkages involved. This is further illustrated for two important climate change–induced health risks, namely malnutrition and malaria. As the amplification of existing and emerging health risks in the developing world might become the greatest tragedy of climate change, adaptation ranks high on developing countries’ agendas. Of particular importance are the discussions about the ‘Green Climate Fund,’ which aims to administer billions of dollars for mitigation and adaptation. Of course, making funds for adaptation available is an important first step, but we also need to ask ourselves the question how such adaptation policies and projects should take shape. This paper demonstrates that an adequate response to climate change health risks should take a systems approach toward adaptation, acknowledging the importance of the local context of the most vulnerable.     

Climate change/variability and food systems: evidence from the Afram Plains,Ghana

While there are many studies of the impacts of climate change and variability on food production, few studies are devoted to a comprehensive assessment of impacts on food systems. Results of a survey of food systems and household adaptation strategies in three communities in the Afram Plains, Ghana, reveal how extreme climatic events affect rural food production, transportation, processing and storage. Adaptation strategies implemented by the three communities during past droughts serve as a foundation for planning responses to future climate change. Results of this study suggest that food security in this region—where droughts and floods are expected to become more severe due to climate change—could be enhanced by increasing farm-based storage facilities; improving the transportation system, especially feeder roads that link food production areas and major markets; providing farmers with early warning systems; extending credit to farmers; and the use of supplementary irrigation. This study also indicates that some cultural practices, particularly those that prohibit the consumption of certain foods, may reduce the resilience of some individuals and ethnic groups to food system disruptions. Understanding the local context and the responses of households is critical to the development of effective strategies for reducing the potential adverse impacts of climatic change on food security in rural Ghana.     

Vulnerability and adaptation of European farmers: a multi-level analysis of yield and income responses to climate variability

Climate change will affect crop yields and consequently farmers’ income. The underlying relationships are not well understood, particularly the importance of crop management and related factors at the farm and regional level. We analyze the impacts of trends and variability in climatic conditions from 1990 to 2003 on trends and variability in yields of five crops and farmers’ income at farm type and regional level in Europe considering farm characteristics and other factors. While Mediterranean regions are often characterized as most vulnerable to climate change, our data suggest effective adaptation to variable and changing conditions in these regions largely attributable to the characteristic farm types in these regions. We conclude that for projections of climate change impacts on agriculture, farm characteristics influencing management and adaptation should be considered, as they largely influence the potential impacts.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions,climate change and limits to warming

This paper reviews scientific and gray literature addressing climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR) in the western Canadian Arctic. The review is structured using a vulnerability framework, and 420 documents related directly or indirectly to climate change are analyzed to provide insights on the current state of knowledge on climate change vulnerability in the ISR as a basis for supporting future research and long-term adaptation planning in the region. The literature documents evidence of climate change in the ISR which is compromising food security and health status, limiting transportation access and travel routes to hunting grounds, and damaging municipal infrastructure. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions; however, many of the adaptations being undertaken are short term, ad-hoc, and reactive in nature. Limited long-term strategic planning for climate change is being undertaken. Current climate change risks are expected to continue in the future with further implications for communities but less is known about the adaptive capacity of communities. This review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and decision makers to understand the interactions between current and projected climate change and the factors which condition vulnerability and influence adaptation. Research gaps are identified, and recommendations for advancing adaptation planning are outlined.     

Towards adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture on the Mediterranean region. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in regions with current water scarcity, and create new opportunities for improving land and water management. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across Mediterranean areas by analysing water scarcity pressures and potential impacts on crop productivity over the next decades. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating an adaptive capacity index that represents the ability of Mediterranean agriculture to respond to climate change. We propose an adaptive capacity index with three major components that characterise the economic capacity, human and civic resources, and agricultural innovation. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.     

Mediterranean agriculture under climate change: adaptive capacity, adaptation, and ethics

In the coming decades, the Mediterranean region is expected to experience various climate impacts with negative consequences on agricultural systems and which will cause uneven reductions in agricultural production. By and large, the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agriculture will be heavier for southern areas of the region. This unbalanced distribution of negative impacts underscores the significance and role of ethics in such a context of analysis. Consequently, the aim of this article is to justify and develop an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation in the Mediterranean and to derive the consequent implications for adaptation policy in the region. In particular, we define an index of adaptive capacity for the agricultural systems of the Mediterranean region on whose basis it is possible to group its different sub-regions, and we provide an overview of the suitable adaptation actions and policies for the sub-regions identified. We then vindicate and put forward an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation, highlighting the implications for the Mediterranean region and the limitations of such an ethical framework. Finally, we emphasize the broader potential of ethics for agricultural adaptation policy.     

Options for water storage and rainwater harvesting to improve health and resilience against climate change in Africa

West and East Africa experience high variability of rainfall that is expected to increase with climate change. This results in fluctuations in water availability for food production and other socioeconomic activities. Water harvesting and storage can mitigate the adverse effects of rainfall variability. But past studies have shown that when investments in water storage are not guided by environmental health considerations, the increased availability of open water surface may increase the transmission of water-related diseases. This is demonstrated for schistosomiasis associated with small reservoirs in Burkina Faso, and for malaria in Ethiopia around large dams, small dams, and water harvesting ponds. The concern is that the rush to develop water harvesting and storage for climate change adaptation may increase the risk for already vulnerable people, in some cases more than canceling out the benefits of greater water availability. Taking health issues into account in a participatory approach to planning, design, and management of rainwater harvesting and water storage, as well as considering the full range of water storage options would enable better opportunities for enhancing resilience against climate change in vulnerable populations in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production in China

There are increasing attempts to define the measures of ‘dangerous anthropogenic inference with the climate system’ in context of Article 2 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, due to its linkage to goals for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. The criteria for identifying dangerous anthropogenic interference may be characterized in terms of the consequences of climate change. In this study, we use the water stress index (WSI) and agricultural net primary production (NPP) as indictors to assess where and when there might be dangerous effects arising from the projected climate changes for Chinese agricultural production. The results showed that based on HadCM3-based climate change scenarios, the region between the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain (34.25–47.75°N, 110.25–126.25°E) would be vulnerable to the projected climate change. The analyses on inter-annual variability showed that the agricultural water resources conditions would fluctuate through the period of 2001–2080 in the region under IPCC SRES A2 scenario, with the period of 2021–2040 as critical drought period. Agricultural NPP is projected to have a general increasing trend through the period of 2001–2080; however, it could decrease during the period of 2005–2035 in the region under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, and during the period of 2025–2035 under IPCC SRES B2 scenario. Generally, while projected climate change could bring some potentially improved conditions for Chinese agriculture, it could also bring some critical adverse changes in water resources, which would affect the overall outcome. At this stage, while we have identified certain risks and established the general shape of the damage curve expressed as a function of global mean temperature increase, more works are needed to identify specific changes which could be dangerous for food security in China. Therefore, there is a need for the development of more integrated assessment models, which include social-economic, agricultural production and food trade modules, to help identify thresholds for impacts in further studies.     

Climate change adaptation and sustainable regional development: a case study for the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

Located in a relatively dry region and characterized by mainly sandy soils, the German Federal State of Brandenburg (surrounding the capital city of Berlin) is especially vulnerable to climate change impacts (e.g., summer droughts) and cascading effects on ecological systems (e.g., decreasing ground water tables, water stress, fire risk, productivity losses) with socioeconomic implications. Furthermore, a complex interplay of unemployment, rural exodus, and an aging population challenges this structurally weak region. We discuss adaptation measures that are either implemented or planned, as well as research into adaptation strategies to climate change for the sectors forestry, agriculture, and water management as well as in nature conservation in light of socioeconomic and ecological challenges and benefits. In doing so, we adopt a systemic view of Brandenburg where the sectors discussed are seen as subsystems embedded in a larger regional system. This at least partially holarchical approach enables the identification of conflicts between adaptation measures, but also of synergies among the sectors that pertain to successful adaptation to climate change. The insights gained ultimately highlight the need for cross-sectoral, adaptive management practices that jointly target a sustainable regional development.     

Linking agricultural adaptation strategies,food security and vulnerability: evidence from West Africa

Adaptation strategies to reduce smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability and seasonality are needed given the frequency of extreme weather events predicted to increase during the next decades in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in West Africa. We explored the linkages between selected agricultural adaptation strategies (crop diversity, soil and water conservation, trees on farm, small ruminants, improved crop varieties, fertilizers), food security, farm household characteristics and farm productivity in three contrasting agro-ecological sites in West Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana and Senegal). Differences in land area per capita and land productivity largely explained the variation in food security across sites. Based on land size and market orientation, four household types were distinguished (subsistence, diversified, extensive, intensified), with contrasting levels of food security and agricultural adaptation strategies. Income increased steadily with land size, and both income and land productivity increased with degree of market orientation. The adoption of agricultural adaptation strategies was widespread, although the intensity of practice varied across household types. Adaptation strategies improve the food security status of some households, but not all. Some strategies had a significant positive impact on land productivity, while others reduced vulnerability resulting in a more stable cash flow throughout the year. Our results show that for different household types, different adaptation strategies may be ‘climate-smart’. The typology developed in this study gives a good entry point to analyse which practices should be targeted to which type of smallholder farmers, and quantifies the effect of adaptation options on household food security. Subsequently, it will be crucial to empower farmers to access, test and modify these adaptation options, if they were to achieve higher levels of food security.     

Local-level climate change adaptation decision-making and livelihoods in semi-arid areas in Zimbabwe

There is now overwhelming evidence of climate change and variability impacts in Africa, among them a reduction in agricultural production. This is a cause for concern given that 70 % of the continent’s population derives its livelihoods directly from rain-fed agriculture. There is need for adaptation strategies at all levels from the national to the local level to mitigate these adverse impacts from climate change. It is important to take advantage of and strengthen already existing household and community strategies. This study used both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to explore the role that livelihood dynamics play in local-level decision-making for adaptation to everyday vulnerability. Risk is considered to extend beyond climate to non-climatic stressors, and the notion of climate change as the major shock among many others is downgraded to one that is secondary to other shocks that even pose more danger to household and community livelihoods. The natural capital remains the basis upon which all the other capitals depend as drivers of choice for adaptation practices. A reorientation of capitals and associated activities is inevitable to deal with everyday vulnerability given that livelihood capitals play a key role in adaptation. Choice of household response strategies to shocks is not entirely intrinsic, but rather integral to a context where other players such as the extension operate to influence adaptation choices. This then highlights the need for embeddedness and context in understanding adaptation and livelihood changes.     

Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of,and their adaptation to,climate change

Some recent funding programmes in Australia on climate adaptation have expected active engagement with farmers in research projects. Based on our direct experience with 30 farmers and their advisors, we list five reasons why it is difficult to gain traction with farmers in discussing the likely impacts of climate change on their farms and the possible adaptation options they should be considering in preparation for a future changed climate. The reasons concern the slow and uncertain trajectory for changes in climate relative to the time horizon for farm decision-making, when set against short-term fluctuations in weather, prices, costs and government policy. Farmers have optimism for ongoing technological progress keeping abreast of any negative impacts of climate on their production. As one moves from incremental to transformational adaptation options, biophysical research has less to offer because decisions become based more on business structure, portfolio management, off-farm investments and geographical diversification. Some farmers also doubt the intentions of climate change researchers and are wary of anything they may have to offer. We propose there is an actionable decision space where agricultural science and economics can contribute to meaningful analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change by farmers. This will involve emphasising the principles of farm management rather than defining optimal farm plans; the use of scenario planning to explore possible futures in a turbulent environment for farming; a focus on short-term adjustments as a path to longer term adaptation; re-gaining the trust of some farmers towards climate change scientists through better communication strategies; and understanding the linkages between adaptation options and enabling factors and technologies.     

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.     

Climate adaptation of interconnected infrastructures: a framework for supporting governance

Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current body of research on infrastructure adaptation does not adequately account for the interconnectedness of infrastructures, both internally and with one another. We take a step toward addressing this gap through the introduction of a framework for infrastructure adaptation that conceptualizes infrastructures as complex socio-technical “systems of systems” embedded in a changing natural environment. We demonstrate the use of this framework by structuring potential climate change impacts and identifying adaptation options for a preliminary set of cases—road, electricity and drinking water infrastructures. By helping to clarify the relationships between impacts at different levels, we find that the framework facilitates the identification of key nodes in the web of possible impacts and helps in the identification of particularly nocuous weather conditions. We also explore how the framework may be applied more comprehensively to facilitate adaptation governance. We suggest that it may help to ensure that the mental models of stakeholders and the quantitative models of researchers incorporate the essential aspects of interacting climate and infrastructure systems. Further research is necessary to test the framework in these contexts and to determine when and where its application may be most beneficial.     

The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change

Human activities are projected to lead to substantial increases in temperature that will impact northern Europe during winter and southern Europe during summer. Moreover, it is expected that these changes will cause increasing water shortages along the Mediterranean and in the south-west Balkans and in the south of European Russia. The consequences on the European agricultural ecosystems are likely to vary widely depending on the cropping system being investigated (i.e. cereals vs. forage crops vs. perennial horticulture), the region and the likely climate changes. In northern Europe, increases in yield and expansion of climatically suitable areas are expected to dominate, whereas disadvantages from increases in water shortage and extreme weather events (heat, drought, storms) will dominate in southern Europe. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean and south-eastern parts of Europe. Among the adaptation options (i.e. autonomous or planned adaptation strategies) that may be explored to minimize the negative impacts of climate changes and to take advantage of positive impacts, changes in crop species, cultivar, sowing date, fertilization, irrigation, drainage, land allocation and farming system seem to be the most appropriate. In adopting these options, however, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and economic functions in different European regions.     

Farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Sekyedumase district in Ghana

Climate change is projected to have serious environmental, economic, and social impacts on Ghana, particularly on rural farmers whose livelihoods depend largely on rainfall. The extent of these impacts depends largely on awareness and the level of adaptation in response to climate change. This study examines the perception of farmers in Sekyedumase district of Ashanti region of Ghana on climate change and analyzes farmers’ adaptation responses to climate change. A hundred and eighty farming households were interviewed in February and October 2009. Results showed that about 92% of the respondents perceived increases in temperature, while 87% perceived decrease in precipitation over the years. The major adaptation strategies identified included crop diversification, planting of short season varieties, change in crops species, and a shift in planting date, among others. Results of logit regression analysis indicated that the access to extension services, credit, soil fertility, and land tenure are the four most important factors that influence farmers’ perception and adaptation. The main barriers included lack of information on adaptation strategies, poverty, and lack of information about weather. Even though the communities are highly aware of climate issues, only 44.4% of farmers have adjusted their farming practices to reduce the impacts of increasing temperature and 40.6% to decreasing precipitation, giving lack of funds as the main barrier to implementing adaptation measure. Implications for policymaking will be to make credit facilities more flexible, to invest in training more extension officers and more education on climate change and adaptation strategies.     

Perceptions of climate change,multiple stressors and livelihoods on marginal African coasts

Studies of multiple stressors in Africa often focus on vulnerable inland communities. Rising concentrations of the world’s poor live in coastal rural–urban areas with direct dependencies on marine as well as terrestrial ecosystem goods and services. Using participatory methods we elicited perceptions of stressors and their sources, impacts and consequences held by coastal communities in eastern Africa (Mtwara in Tanzania and Maputo in Mozambique). Respondent-informed timelines suggest wars, economic policies and natural increase have led to natural resource-dependent populations in marginal, previously little-inhabited lowland coastal areas. Respondents (n = 91) in interviews and focus groups rank climate stressors (temperature rise/erratic rain) highest amongst human/natural stressors having negative impacts on livelihoods and wellbeing (e.g., cross-scale cost of living increases including food and fuel prices). Sources of stress and impacts were mixed in time and space, complicating objective identification of causal chains. Some appeared to be specific to coastal areas. Respondents reported farms failing and rising dependence on stressed marine resources, food and fuel prices and related dependence on traders and credit shrunk by negative global market trends. Development in the guise of tourism and conservation projects limited access to land–sea livelihoods and resources in rural–urban areas (coastal squeeze). Mental modelling clarified resource user perceptions of complex linkages from local to international levels. We underline risks of the poor in marginal coastal areas facing double or multiple exposures to multiple stressors, with climate variability suggesting the risks of climate change.