Branching processes, Markov chains, and competing risks

This paper re-proves and generalizes results by Hardin and Sweet on the time to absorption in certain Markov chains by using a theorem on the time to extinction in multitype branching processes. Renaming “absorption” as “death” and “state immediately before absorption” as “cause of death” makes possible an interpretation in terms of competing risks. This is of very limited value, however, due to the rather severe mathematical restrictions on the Markov chains at hand.     

Stochastic mortality theory and the mortality potential: A biophysical model for certain competing risks

The theory of competing risks cannot be based entirely on the analysis of postmortem pathology data. It is necessary also to know the prevalence and residence times of the diseases in question, separately and jointly, in the living population at risk. It is also necessary to have a conceptual model of the transition process from health to disease, or from one disease state to another, within the organism, so that the formal transition probabilities estimated from epidemiological data can be interpreted in biophysical terms as arising from changes in the physico-chemical state of the organism. This paper offers such a model for transition processes arising from fluctuations of physiological state (for example, lapse into diabetic coma or insulin shock as a result of extreme high or low excursions of the blood sugar level). A Gaussian fluctuation process is postulated, and the transition probability, or incidence rate, is calculated as the frequency with which the state variable fluctuates beyond a specified distance, Λ, from the mean state. An explicit solution is given for the limiting, but biologically reasonable, case that such an excursion is a rare event. In this case, the transition probability varies exponentially for linear displacement of Λ or of the dispersion of fluctuations, σ. If Λ decreases, and/or σ increases, as a linear function of age, this model yields an exponential (Gompertzian) relation of disease incidence to age. Generalization to more than one variable is accomplished by introducing the concept of a mortality potential surface, in which the disease transitions are geometrized as saddle points, or “passes”, on the surface.     

The practical societal problem of pollution and public health as the source of a variety of problems regarding chance mechanisms operating in living organisms

The essence of the societal problem which justifies the expenditure of large sums on studies of pollution and health is illustrated by three figures included in this paper. The first two of these figures illustrate the contemporary publicity favoring the two competing energy-producing technologies, the nuclear and the conventional fossil-burning technologies. The very existence of this costly publicity demonstrates that the decisions affecting public health are now frequently made without due regard to the relevant scientific findings. The third figure illustrates the most laudable effort of the Environmental Protection Agency to establish a relationship between hoped-for decreases in mortality and the dollar cost of removing from the environment any one of the several investigated pollutants, e.g., “particulates”, krypton-85, tritium, etc.The subsequent parts of this presentation tend to document the fact that the reliability of the EPA chart published in 1973 is illusory. The same applies to the large number of other official publications, including those of the National Academy of Sciences. The results of more modern studies brought to the fore a variety of biological chance mechanisms, such as competing risks, dose-rate effects, synergisms, etc., which make the problem attacked by EPA much more difficult than was originally anticipated.The basic research, combining the laboratory experimentation on animals and theoretical considerations, results in a better understanding of a variety of phenomena. However, this better understanding seems to imply that the solution of the practical societal problem requires a large multipollutant and multilocality epidemiological study.     

Air pollution control policy in the Federal Republic of Germany as a strategy for dealing with environmental risks

The paper describes criteria for the development of energy systems, with emphasis on “environmental compatibility.” It outlines the main objectives underlying political and regulatory action in the Federal Republic of Germany to ensure this compatibility through the management of environmental risks. The air pollution control policy in the Federal Republic of Germany is presented as a strategy for risk management, focusing on its philosophy and on the recent ordinances concerning air pollution control in large firing (combustion) installations.     

Pilot field study: Carbon monoxide exposure monitoring in the general population

A pilot field study was conducted with nine members of the general public to measure carbon monoxide exposure using personal monitors. The principal study objectives were to design and evaluate the research protocol and the instrumentation performance for application to the conduct of a large-scale personal monitoring program. Integrated carbon monoxide exposure was monitored and recorded according to type of activity such as “commuting” or “at work” for approximately 45 days by each subject. All subjects except one were able to handle both the equipment and data recording requirements with no significant problems. Actual data recording responsibilities consumed less than 10 min daily. The data consisted of 355 person-days each over 6-h duration, and weekdays only, from which 8-h average personal exposure levels could be computed. The 9 ppm (μL/L) ambient air quality standard was exceeded on 22 person-days. Elevated carbon monoxide concentrations during the commuting activity were frequently associated with the exceedences.     

Consultative mechanisms in Sweden's environment protection policy

The institutional and legislative framework of Swedish environmental protection is presented with special reference to the role of consultation in the policy process. The functions and duties of the National Environment Protection Board, the Franchise Board for Environment Protection, the Environment Advisory Board, and the Product Control Board are outlined. The main thrust of the 1969 Environment Protection Act, the 1972 Hazardous Products Control Act, and the environmental impact assessment requirements of the Planning and Building Legislation is presented. The character of consultation within this framework is also discussed, with reference to the role of public participation and of organized regulated interests. It is found that the main functions of consultation in policy-making are “feeding back on former policy,” “foreseeing future policies,” and “canvassing for consensus.” In the stage of policy clarification, consultation is found to be a means of “catering for compliance” and “creating coherence.” In policy implementation, consultation is an important means of gathering information from parties possibly affected by implementative decisions.     

A review of the existing methodology in competing-risk theory

The theory of competing risks is concerned with assessing a specific risk in the complicating presence of other risks. This paper reviews existing methods for dealing with the problem. Much of the existing methodology (both parametric and nonparametric) involves the assumption of independent risks. This situation receives most of the attention in this paper, although a brief discussion summarizing attempts to deal with the complicated problem of dependent risks is given. Adaptations of methods used to incorporate concomitant information in survival analyses are discussed. Brief reference is made to the most relevant graphical methods that have been proposed. The review tends to be verbal in nature, leaving the interested reader to check out mathematical details in the references.     

Interactions between diesel emissions and gaseous copollutants in photochemical air pollution: Some health implications

A complete assessment of the health effects of diesel emissions must take into account the possible chemical transformations (and associated biological impacts) of particulate organic matter (POM) due to reactions with the many gaseous copollutants which have now been unambiguously demonstrated to be present in atmospheres burdened by photochemical air pollution. These copollutants include the “trace” species, nitric (HNO₃) and nitrous (HONO) acids, the nitrate radical (NO₃), formaldehyde (H₂CO) and formic acid (HCOOH), as well as the criteria pollutants, ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). Techniques for establishing the atmospheric concentrations of the trace pollutants (and their spatial and temporal variations) are briefly described, and we present results of investigations into the reactions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) coated on filters and exposed to ambient concentrations of O₃ and NO₂. Environmental health implications of these results are discussed and include the potential for sampling “artifacts” and their possible effects on the correlation (or lack thereof) between ambient PAH levels and urban lung cancer rates, as well as the problems associated with understanding the appropriate POM “dose” to be employed in animal testing and assessments of impacts on human health.     

Carbon dioxide and climate: an astrophysical perspective

In this survey the earth is viewed from the astrophysical perspective, i.e. using global mean values of environmental parameters. The role of carbon dioxide is described in the processes of energy transfer from the earth's surface to space, which determine “global climate” as measured by the mean surface temperature. Analogies and differences between the problems of the terrestrial atmosphere and those of the solar and stellar atmospheres are examines, both in the computation of model atmosphere and in remote sensing of atmospheric temperature and composition. Subsequently, the temporal astrophysical perspective, with a review of the evolution of CO₂ abundance and climate on astrophysical or geological time scales, on earth as on Venus (the runaway greenhouse) and on Mars is introduced. Variation of CO₂ may have been critical to the maintenance of an environment in which life could originate and evolve, and may itself have been affected by life. On human time scales, the recent and continuing increase in atmospheric CO₂ raises new problems, which are briefly surveyed. It is argued, that the differential greenhouse effect of increased CO₂ in the earth's atmosphere is essentially identical to the “blanketing effect” of spectral lines on the temperature structure of stellar atmospheres. The methods used by astrophysicists in such studies are reviewed and compared with those used to evaluate the differential greenhouse effect of CO₂ in radiative-convective models of the earth's atmosphere. The latter methods remain relatively crude, but recent results by different authors are in reasonably good agreement; however, the astrophysical perspective, i.e. the use of one-dimensional global mean models, remains a gross simplification of the real complexity of the earth's climate system, which is also true in stellar atmospheres.     

Electrostatic precipitator emission and opacity performance control through rapper strategy

The opacity and emission performance of two “identical” cold-side precipitators at a power plant utilizing a Western coal source was investigated through an extensive test program. The test program included establishment of outlet emission versus opacity correlations for the two “identical” units, correlation of rapper strategy (frequency and amplitude) with opacity, and correlation of power-off rapping strategy with opacity. Analysis of the test program data demonstrates that the opacity-emission correlations from the two “identical” units can be significantly different. The potential reasons for the differences between the two units are identified and examined in light of the test program data. Strong correlation of opacity with rapping strategy was developed from the test program. Results demonstrate that an automatic power-off rapping technique can significantly enhance precipitator performance on ash from Western coal.     

Filtration efficiencies in electrostatically augmented granular beds

Fine particle filtration efficiencies of electrically enhanced granular beds are computed and compared with available experimental data. Collection efficiencies of a single bed sphere in a gaseous flow are first calculated by numerically solving the equations of particle motion. The collection mechanisms incorporated here are inertial impaction, interception, and charged fine particle-imposed electric field interaction. The approach is based upon a “unit cell” model which enables one to include the effects of surrounding bed particles on the collection process. Stokes' flow and potential flow are used to model the gas flow around the bed particle. Total efficiency is computed by integrating the single-sphere collection efficiency over the bed volume. These calculated total bed efficiencies compare satisfactorily with data obtained from an existing granular bed facility over a range of parameter values. Both theory and experimental data show that the electrical force significantly enhances particulate collection in granular beds.     

Olfactory and chemical characterization of indoor air. Towards a psychophysical model for air quality

The relationship between the odor strength of total air samples and the odor strengths of the constituents was investigated in three field experiments in an office building and a new preschool. The odor strength was scaled by magnitude estimation according to a master scale principle which results in comparable values for the total and the constituent odors. Between 60 and 120 chemical components were detected by GC/FID in the indoor air samples (N = 66). Most (81%) of the detected components in an air sample were odorous, even though most of them were of the low concentrations. By a method of pattern analysis, chemical as well as odor patterns of indoor air were found to be characteristics of different buildings. From the odor patterns (POG), the “odor print” of the outdoor air associated with the buildings was also recognized in the indoor air. Thus, the “odor print” of an air sample is different from its “chemical print”. A model was found that predicts the overall odor strength of an air sample from the number of FID-detected components most frequently reported to have a strong odor.     

Efficient ventilation in office rooms

Results from a two-box model for calculation of tracer gas concentrations in rooms are given and consequences of different definitions of “ventilation efficiency” are discussed. Results from three different series of experiments are presented. The first two series were dilution experiments; examples of the results are given and discussed. The third series of tests was performed with one person working at a desk in the test room. Above the person;s head, a tracer gas (N₂O) was injected into the convection plume, with as low momentum as possible. Starting with zero concentration, a test continued until steady-state conditions were established for the concentration levels in the different parts of the room. The tests included simulation of summer, autumn/spring, and winter daytime conditions. The results indicate a tendency towards lower tracer gas concentrations in the “breathing zone” when the supply air (typical flow rate equivalent to two air changes per hour) is brought into the room at a low level as compared to a high level close to the ceiling. The exhaust air terminal device in all tests was situated high in the “corridor” wall.     

Electrode cleaning systems: Optimizing rapping energy and rapping control

Methods for improving electrostatic precipitator performance by increasing electrode excitation level during rapping, and by optimizing rapping control, are presented in this paper. Design modifications can reduce mechanical impedence to vibration transmission during rapping. These same modifications can eliminate areas of high stress concentration where fatigue failure often occurs. Rapping system control parameters are presented as they relate to variations in field collection and shedding rates. Anti-coincident rapping control for plate rappers minimizes peak opacity levels during rapping if sufficient “rest times” between raps can be maintained. When anti-coincidence must be sacrificed due to insufficient rest times on large installations, suggestions for anti-coincident rapping by section are presented. Methods for optimizing field rapping repeat rates using available opacity, ash pull, and precipitator power information are discussed.     

Acid sulfate soils and human health—A Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Acid sulfate soils have been described as the “nastiest soils on earth” because of their strong acidity, increased mobility of potentially toxic elements and limited bioavailability of nutrients. They only cover a small area of the world's total problem soils, but often have significant adverse effects on agriculture, aquaculture and the environment on a local scale. Their location often coincides with high population density areas along the coasts of many developing countries. As a result, their negative impacts on ecosystems can have serious implications to those least equipped for coping with the low crop yields and reduced water quality that can result from acid sulfate soil disturbance. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment called on by the United Nations in 2000 emphasised the importance of ecosystems for human health and well-being. These include the service they provide as sources of food and water, through the control of pollution and disease, as well as for the cultural services ecosystems provide. While the problems related to agriculture, aquaculture and the environment have been the focus of many acid sulfate soil management efforts, the connection to human health has largely been ignored. This paper presents the potential health issues of acid sulfate soils, in relation to the ecosystem services identified in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. It is recognised that significant implications on food security and livelihood can result, as well as on community cohesiveness and the spread of vector-borne disease. However, the connection between these outcomes and acid sulfate soils is often not obvious and it is therefore argued that the impact of such soils on human well-being needs to be recognised in order to raise awareness among the public and decision makers, to in turn facilitate proper management and avoid potential human ill-health.     

Towards a coherent conceptual framework for emergency preparedness/response and rehabilitation – the application of the new ICRP recommendations given in ICRP 103

In the past, most emphasis in planning for and response to an emergency situation has been placed on selected protective measures in the early phase of an emergency to keep the doses received below levels where severe deterministic health effects can be excluded and/or where the risk of stochastic effects in the population is considered “acceptable”. Less emphasis has been placed on the development of comprehensive protection strategies which include considerations of the consequences of all exposure pathways and all phases, e.g. long-term rehabilitation. In its new publication 103, ICRP proposed a coherent conceptual framework for protection in all types of exposure situations including “emergency exposure situations” and “existing exposure situations”. In the context of developing protection strategies for these exposure situations, the Commission recommends that national authorities set reference levels between, typically, 20 mSv and 100 mSv annual effective dose (emergency exposure situation) and 1 mSv and 20 mSv (existing exposure situation). In order to optimise protection strategies, it is necessary to identify the dominant exposure pathways, the timescales over which the dose will be received, and the effectiveness of available protection options. The characteristics of the development and implementation of such protection strategies is described.     

Regression analysis of censored survival data with extensions to include competing risks and case-control studies

Statistical methods for the analysis of censored time-to-response data are reviewed. Estimation of the effect of dose levels and other regressor variables on time to response is emphasized. Both log-linear and proportional hazards regression models are discussed and illustrations are given. Methods based on the proportional hazards model are extended to competing risks and case-control studies. The competing risks generalization leads to the estimation of cause-specific regression coefficients without placing restrictions on the interrelation among failure types.     

Improving the efficiency of free-jet scrubbers

A free-jet scrubber is an innovative gas cleaner in which the primary liquid/gas contacting takes place in the turbulent mixing zone emanating from a jet nozzle. The first such devices, powered by supersonic steam or air ejectors, were exceptionally effective cleaners but were criticized as being high-energy users. A great reduction in the energy consumption of free-jet scrubbers has been accomplished in the last four years, a feat which may seem in contradiction to the “contacting power rule.” An explanation of what is happening in these devices must take into account the effectiveness with which energy and water are utilized. thereby leading one to a somewhat circular definition of “effective contacting power.” The theoretical implication of this analysis is primarily to remind us that there are many paths between two states and some are more energy efficient than others. The practical value is that such analysis generates information which aids in choosing between several design options, a direct benefit of the various free-jet configurations.