Upscaling heterogeneity in aquifer reactivity via exposure-time concept: forward model

Reactive properties of aquifer solid phase materials play an important role in solute fate and transport in the natural subsurface on time scales ranging from years in contaminant remediation to millennia in dynamics of aqueous geochemistry. Quantitative tools for dealing with the impact of natural heterogeneity in solid phase reactivity on solute fate and transport are limited. Here we describe the use of a structural variable to keep track of solute flux exposure to reactive surfaces. With this approach, we develop a non-reactive tracer model that is useful for determining the signature of multi-scale reactive solid heterogeneity in terms of solute flux distributions at the field scale, given realizations of three-dimensional reactive site density fields. First, a governing Eulerian equation for the non-reactive tracer model is determined by an upscaling technique in which it is found that the exposure time of solution to reactive surface areas evolves via both a macroscopic velocity and a macroscopic dispersion in the artificial dimension of exposure time. Second, we focus on the Lagrangian approach in the context of a streamtube ensemble and demonstrate the use of the distribution of solute flux over the exposure time dimension in modeling two-dimensional transport of a solute undergoing simplified linear reversible reactions, in hypothetical conditions following prior laboratory experiments. The distribution of solute flux over exposure time in a given case is a signature of the impact of heterogeneous aquifer reactivity coupled with a particular physical heterogeneity, boundary conditions, and hydraulic gradient. Rigorous application of this approach in a simulation sense is limited here to linear kinetically controlled reactions.     

Flow and transport in unsaturated fractured rock: effects of multiscale heterogeneity of hydrogeologic properties

The heterogeneity of hydrogeologic properties at different scales may have different effects on flow and transport processes in a subsurface system. A model for the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is developed to represent complex heterogeneity at two different scales: (1) layer scale corresponding to geologic layering and (2) local scale. The layer-scale hydrogeologic properties are obtained using inverse modeling, based on the available measurements collected from the Yucca Mountain site. Calibration results show a significant lateral and vertical variability in matrix and fracture properties. Hydrogeologic property distributions in a two-dimensional, vertical cross-section of the site are generated by combining the average layer-scale matrix and fracture properties with local-scale perturbations generated using a stochastic simulation method. The unsaturated water flow and conservative (nonsorbing) tracer transport through the cross-section are simulated for different sets of matrix and fracture property fields. Comparison of simulation results indicates that the local-scale heterogeneity of matrix and fracture properties has a considerable effect on unsaturated flow processes, leading to fast flow paths in fractures and the matrix. These paths shorten the travel time of a conservative tracer from the source (repository) horizon in the unsaturated zone to the water table for small fractions of total released tracer mass. As a result, the local-scale heterogeneity also has a noticeable effect on global tracer transport processes, characterized by an average breakthrough curve at the water table, especially at the early arrival time of tracer mass. However, the effect is not significant at the later time after 20% tracer mass reaches the water table. The simulation results also verify that matrix diffusion plays an important role in overall solute transport processes in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain.     

Variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport in heterogeneous porous media: approaches, resolutions and future challenges

In certain hydrogeological situations, fluid density variations occur because of changes in the solute or colloidal concentration, temperature, and pressure of the groundwater. These include seawater intrusion, high-level radioactive waste disposal, groundwater contamination, and geothermal energy production. When the density of the invading fluid is greater than that of the ambient one, density-driven free convection can lead to transport of heat and solutes over larger spatial scales and significantly shorter time scales than compared with diffusion alone. Beginning with the work of Lord Rayleigh in 1916, thermal and solute instabilities in homogeneous media have been studied in detail for almost a century. Recently, these theoretical and experimental studies have been applied in the study of groundwater phenomena, where the assumptions of homogeneity and isotropy rarely, if ever, apply. The critical role that heterogeneity plays in the onset as well as the growth and/or decay of convective motion is discussed by way of a review of pertinent literature and numerical simulations performed using a variable-density flow and solute transport numerical code. Different styles of heterogeneity are considered and range from continuously "trending" heterogeneity (sinusoidal and stochastic permeability distributions) to discretely fractured geologic media. Results indicate that both the onset of instabilities and their subsequent growth and decay are intimately related to the structure and variance of the permeability field. While disordered heterogeneity tends to dissipate convection through dispersive mixing, an ordered heterogeneity (e.g., sets of vertical fractures) allows instabilities to propagate at modest combinations of fracture aperture and separation distances. Despite a clearer understanding of the processes that control the onset and propagation of instabilities, resultant plume patterns and their migration rates and pathways do not appear amenable to prediction at present. The classical Rayleigh number used to predict the occurrence of instabilities fails, in most cases, when heterogeneous conditions prevail. The incorporation of key characteristics of the heterogeneous permeability field into relevant stability criteria and numerical models remains a challenge for future research.     

Towards a definition of climate science

The intrinsic difficulties in building realistic climate models and in providing complete, reliable and meaningful observational datasets, and the conceptual impossibility of testing theories against data imply that the usual Galilean scientific validation criteria do not apply to climate science. The different epistemology pertaining to climate science implies that its answers cannot be singular and deterministic; they must be plural and stated in probabilistic terms. Therefore, in order to extract meaningful estimates of future climate change from a model, it is necessary to explore the model's uncertainties. In terms of societal impacts of scientific knowledge, it is necessary to accept that any political choice in a matter involving complex systems is made under unavoidable conditions of uncertainty. Nevertheless, detailed probabilistic results in science can provide a baseline for a sensible process of decision-making.     

Effects of pore volume-transmissivity correlation on transport phenomena

The relevant velocity that describes transport phenomena in a porous medium is the pore velocity. For this reason, one needs not only to describe the variability of transmissivity, which fully determines the Darcy velocity field for given source terms and boundary conditions, but also any variability of the pore volume. We demonstrate that hydraulically equivalent media with exactly the same transmissivity field can produce dramatic differences in the displacement of a solute if they have different pore volume distributions. In particular, we demonstrate that correlation between pore volume and transmissivity leads to a much smoother and more homogeneous solute distribution. This was observed in a laboratory experiment performed in artificial fractures made of two plexiglass plates into which a space-dependent aperture distribution was milled. Using visualization by a light transmission technique, we observe that the solute behaviour is much smoother and more regular after the fractures are filled with glass powder, which plays the role of a homogeneous fault gouge material. This is due to a perfect correlation between pore volume and transmissivity that causes pore velocity to be not directly dependent on the transmissivity, but only indirectly through the hydraulic gradient, which is a much smoother function due to the diffusive behaviour of the flow equation acting as a filter. This smoothing property of the pore volume-transmissivity correlation is also supported by numerical simulations of tracer tests in a dipole flow field. Three different conceptual models are used: an empty fracture, a rough-walled fracture filled with a homogeneous material and a parallel-plate fracture with a heterogeneous fault gouge. All three models are hydraulically equivalent, yet they have a different pore volume distribution. Even if piezometric heads and specific flow rates are exactly the same at any point of the domain, the transport process differs dramatically. These differences make it important to discriminate in situ among different conceptual models in order to simulate correctly the transport phenomena. For this reason, we study the solute breakthrough and recovery curves at the extraction wells. Our numerical case studies show that discrimination on the basis of such data might be impossible except under very favourable conditions, i.e. the integral scale of the transmissivity field has to be known and small compared to the dipole size. If the latter conditions are satisfied, discrimination between the rough-walled fracture filled with a homogeneous material and the other two models becomes possible, whereas the parallel-plate fracture with a heterogeneous fault gouge and the empty fracture still show identifiability problems. The latter may be solved by inspection of aperture and pressure testing.     

Influence of indoor transport and mixing time scales on the performance of sensor systems for characterizing contaminant releases

Optimizing real-time sensor systems to detect and identify relevant characteristics of an indoor contaminant event is a challenging task. The interpretation of incoming sensor data is confounded by uncertainties in building operation, in the forces driving contaminant transport, and in the physical parameters governing transport. In addition, simulation tools used by the sensor interpretation algorithm introduce modeling uncertainties. This paper explores how the time scales inherent in contaminant transport influence the information that can be extracted from real-time sensor data. In particular, we identify three time scales (within room mixing, room-to-room transport, and removal from the building) and study how they affect the ability of a Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) sensor interpretation algorithm to identify the release location and release mass from a set of experimental data, recorded in a multi-floor building. The research shows that some limitations in the BMC approach do not depend on details of the models or the algorithmic implementation, but rather on the physics of contaminant transport. These inherent constraints have implications for the design of sensor systems.     

Development of a fuzzy-stochastic nonlinear model to incorporate aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty

Site uncertainties significantly influence groundwater flow and contaminant transport predictions. Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are both identified in site characterization and represented using proper uncertainty theories. When one theory best represents one parameter whereas a different theory may be more suitable for another parameter, the hybrid propagation of aleatoric (random) and epistemic (nonrandom) uncertainties will occur. The computational challenges of joint propagation of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty through groundwater flow and contaminant transport models are significant. A fuzzy-stochastic nonlinear model was developed in this paper to incorporate these two types of uncertain site information and reduce the computational cost. The results show that (1) the computational cost using the nonlinear model is reduced compared with that of using the sparse grid algorithm and Monte Carlo methods; (2) the uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity (K) significantly influences the water head and solute distribution at the observation wells compared to other uncertain parameters, such as the storage coefficient and the distribution coefficient (K_d); and (3) the combination of multiple uncertain parameters substantially affects the simulation results. Neglecting site uncertainties may lead to unrealistic predictions.     

Development of a regional hydrologic soil model and application to the Beerze--Reusel drainage basin

The soil compartment is an important interface between the atmosphere and the subsurface hydrosphere. In this paper a conceptual approach for regional hydrologic soil modelling (RHSM) is presented, which provides two important qualities for modelling. First, the soil compartment is directly coupled to the atmosphere via the land surface and to the aquifers. Second, extremely fine (5cm vertical) resolutions of the soil system can be realized at regional scales (several hundreds of km(2)). This high-resolution modelling could be achieved by parallel computation techniques. The RHSM approach is applied to the Beerze-Reusel drainage basin, which belongs to the Meuse River basin. Moisture transport in the soil system was calculated with extremely high vertical resolution at a regional scale based on rainfall-evaporation data for the year 2000. As a result, highly resolved regional groundwater recharge pattern addressing the heterogeneity of soil systems could be determined.     

A comparison of numerical solutions of partial differential equations with probabilistic and possibilistic parameters for the quantification of uncertainty in subsurface solute transport

Traditionally, uncertainty in parameters are represented as probabilistic distributions and incorporated into groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. With the advent of newer uncertainty theories, it is now understood that stochastic methods cannot properly represent non random uncertainties. In the groundwater flow and contaminant transport equations, uncertainty in some parameters may be random, whereas those of others may be non random. The objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy-stochastic partial differential equation (FSPDE) model to simulate conditions where both random and non random uncertainties are involved in groundwater flow and solute transport. Three potential solution techniques namely, (a) transforming a probability distribution to a possibility distribution (Method I) then a FSPDE becomes a fuzzy partial differential equation (FPDE), (b) transforming a possibility distribution to a probability distribution (Method II) and then a FSPDE becomes a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE), and (c) the combination of Monte Carlo methods and FPDE solution techniques (Method III) are proposed and compared. The effects of these three methods on the predictive results are investigated by using two case studies. The results show that the predictions obtained from Method II is a specific case of that got from Method I. When an exact probabilistic result is needed, Method II is suggested. As the loss or gain of information during a probability–possibility (or vice versa) transformation cannot be quantified, their influences on the predictive results is not known. Thus, Method III should probably be preferred for risk assessments.     

Kinematic analysis of solute mass flows in rock fractures with spatially random parameters

Field data of physical properties in heterogeneous crystalline bedrock, like porosity and fracture aperture, is associated with uncertainty that can have a significant impact on the analysis of solute transport in rock fractures. Solutions to the central temporal moments of the residence time probability density function (PDF) are derived in a closed form for a solute Dirac pulse. The solutions are based on a model that takes into account advection along the fracture plane, diffusion into the rock matrix and sorption kinetics in the rock matrix. The most relevant rock properties including fracture aperture and several matrix properties as well as flow velocity are assumed to be spatially random along transport pathways. The mass transport is first solved in a general form along one-dimensional pathways, but the results can be extended to multi-dimensional flows simply by substituting the expected travel time for inert water parcels. Based on data obtained with rock samples taken at Asp? Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden, the solutions indicate that the heterogeneity of the rock properties contributes to increasing significantly both the variance and the skewness of the residence time probability density function for a pulse travelling in a fracture. The Asp? data suggests that the bias introduced in the variance of the residence time PDF by neglecting the effect of heterogeneity of the rock properties on the radionuclide migration is very large for fractures thinner than a few tenths of a millimetre.     

Field-scale effective matrix diffusion coefficient for fractured rock: results from literature survey

Matrix diffusion is an important mechanism for solute transport in fractured rock. We recently conducted a literature survey on the effective matrix diffusion coefficient, D_m^e, a key parameter for describing matrix diffusion processes at the field scale. Forty field tracer tests at 15 fractured geologic sites were surveyed and selected for the study, based on data availability and quality. Field-scale D_m^e values were calculated, either directly using data reported in the literature, or by reanalyzing the corresponding field tracer tests. The reanalysis was conducted for the selected tracer tests using analytic or semi-analytic solutions for tracer transport in linear, radial, or interwell flow fields. Surveyed data show that the scale factor of the effective matrix diffusion coefficient (defined as the ratio of D_m^e to the lab-scale matrix diffusion coefficient, D_m, of the same tracer) is generally larger than one, indicating that the effective matrix diffusion coefficient in the field is comparatively larger than the matrix diffusion coefficient at the rock-core scale. This larger value can be attributed to the many mass-transfer processes at different scales in naturally heterogeneous, fractured rock systems.Furthermore, we observed a moderate, on average trend toward systematic increase in the scale factor with observation scale. This trend suggests that the effective matrix diffusion coefficient is likely to be statistically scale-dependent. The scale-factor value ranges from 0.5 to 884 for observation scales from 5 to 2000 m. At a given scale, the scale factor varies by two orders of magnitude, reflecting the influence of differing degrees of fractured rock heterogeneity at different geologic sites. In addition, the surveyed data indicate that field-scale longitudinal dispersivity generally increases with observation scale, which is consistent with previous studies. The scale-dependent field-scale matrix diffusion coefficient (and dispersivity) may have significant implications for assessing long-term, large-scale radionuclide and contaminant transport events in fractured rock, both for nuclear waste disposal and contaminant remediation.     

Simulation of solute transport across low-permeability barrier walls

Low-permeability, non-reactive barrier walls are often used to contain contaminants in an aquifer. Rates of solute transport through such barriers are typically many orders of magnitude slower than rates through the aquifer. Nevertheless, the success of remedial actions may be sensitive to these low rates of transport. Two numerical simulation methods for representing low-permeability barriers in a finite-difference groundwater-flow and transport model were tested. In the first method, the hydraulic properties of the barrier were represented directly on grid cells and in the second method, the intercell hydraulic-conductance values were adjusted to approximate the reduction in horizontal flow, allowing use of a coarser and computationally efficient grid. The alternative methods were tested and evaluated on the basis of hypothetical test problems and a field case involving tetrachloroethylene (PCE) contamination at a Superfund site in New Hampshire. For all cases, advective transport across the barrier was negligible, but preexisting numerical approaches to calculate dispersion yielded dispersive fluxes that were greater than expected. A transport model (MODFLOW-GWT) was modified to (1) allow different dispersive and diffusive properties to be assigned to the barrier than the adjacent aquifer and (2) more accurately calculate dispersion from concentration gradients and solute fluxes near barriers. The new approach yields reasonable and accurate concentrations for the test cases.     

Using the multiple cell balance method to solve the problem of two-dimensional groundwater flow and contaminant transport with nonequilibrium sorption

The problem of large-scale contamination of groundwater by relatively low levels of organic contaminants is most frequently addressed by extracting and treating the impacted groundwater. This pump-and-treat strategy is often unsuccessful because of difficulties encountered in recovering the contaminants from relatively immobile zones within the porous medium. These zones can exist at the particle scale, as intraparticle or intra-aggregate porosity, and at the larger scales, as low-permeability layers or lenses interspersed in substantially more permeable layers. This work focuses on achieving an efficient numerical solution to a system of groundwater flow and contaminant transport equations that sufficiently captures the dynamics of slow desorption in a two-dimensional porous medium. The conceptual model and governing equations are presented. A numerical method for solving the governing equations, the upstream-weighted, multiple cell balance (UMCB) method, is proposed. The UMCB algorithm has been employed previously for the case of solute transport with equilibrium sorption, and is extended here to the nonequilibrium case. The approach employs a finite-element basis function and a finite-difference local mass balance, and is designed to reduce computational and storage requirements, while minimizing the mass balance error. The computational grid is formed by division of the flow domain into triangular elements. An invented node at the center of each element divides the element into three subtriangular regions. By linking the center of each triangular element and the mid-point of each elemental side, a multiangular region, referred to as an exclusive subdomain, is defined. The discretized system of governing equations is derived from the integral form that describes the mass balance in the exclusive subdomain of each node. The paper details the application of the numerical method, and demonstrates that the method is reasonably accurate and computationally efficient for a two-dimensional domain subject to nonequilibrium sorption.     

An interpretation of potential scale dependence of the effective matrix diffusion coefficient

Matrix diffusion is an important process for solute transport in fractured rock, and the matrix diffusion coefficient is a key parameter for describing this process. Previous studies have indicated that the effective matrix diffusion coefficient values, obtained from a large number of field tracer tests, are enhanced in comparison with local values and may increase with test scale. In this study, we have performed numerical experiments to investigate potential mechanisms behind possible scale-dependent behavior. The focus of the experiments is on solute transport in flow paths having geometries consistent with percolation theories and characterized by multiple local flow loops formed mainly by small-scale fractures. The water velocity distribution through a flow path was determined using discrete fracture network flow simulations, and solute transport was calculated using a previously derived impulse-response function and a particle-tracking scheme. Values for effective (or up-scaled) transport parameters were obtained by matching breakthrough curves from numerical experiments with an analytical solution for solute transport along a single fracture. Results indicate that a combination of local flow loops and the associated matrix diffusion process, together with scaling properties in flow path geometry, seems to be an important mechanism causing the observed scale dependence of the effective matrix diffusion coefficient (at a range of scales).     

Contaminant mass discharge estimation in groundwater based on multi-level point measurements: a numerical evaluation of expected errors

Different methods for the field-scale estimation of contaminant mass discharge in groundwater at control planes based on multi-level well data are numerically analysed for the expected estimation error. We consider "direct" methods based on time-integrated measuring of mass flux, as well as "indirect" methods, where estimates are derived from concentration measurements. The appropriateness of the methods is evaluated by means of modelled data provided by simulation of mass transport in a three-dimensional model domain. Uncertain heterogeneous aquifer conditions are addressed by means of Monte-Carlo simulations with aquifer conductivity as a random space function. We investigate extensively the role of the interplay between the spatial resolution of the sampling grid and aquifer heterogeneity with respect to the accuracy of the mass discharge estimation. It is shown that estimation errors can be reduced only if spatial sampling intervals are in due proportion to spatial correlation length scales. The ranking of the methods with regard to estimation error is shown to be heavily dependent on both the given sampling resolution and prevailing aquifer heterogeneity. Regarding the "indirect" estimation methods, we demonstrate the great importance of a consistent averaging of the parameters used for the discharge estimation.     

Importance of considering intraborehole flow in solute transport modeling under highly dynamic flow conditions

Correct interpretation of tracer test data is critical for understanding transport processes in the subsurface. This task can be greatly complicated by the presence of intraborehole flows in a highly dynamic flow environment. At a new tracer test site (Hanford IFRC) a dynamic flow field created by changes in the stage of the adjacent Columbia River, coupled with a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity distribution, leads to considerable variations in vertical hydraulic gradients. These variations, in turn, create intraborehole flows in fully-screened (6.5m) observation wells with frequently alternating upward and downward movement. This phenomenon, in conjunction with a highly permeable aquifer formation and small horizontal hydraulic gradients, makes modeling analysis and model calibration a formidable challenge. Groundwater head data alone were insufficient to define the flow model boundary conditions, and the movement of the tracer was highly sensitive to the dynamics of the flow field. This study shows that model calibration can be significantly improved by explicitly considering (a) dynamic flow model boundary conditions and (b) intraborehole flow. The findings from this study underscore the difficulties in interpreting tracer tests and understanding solute transport under highly dynamic flow conditions.     

Stochastic-convective transport with nonlinear reaction and mixing: application to intermediate-scale experiments in aerobic biodegradation in saturated porous media

Aerobic biodegradation of benzoate by Pseudomonas cepacia sp. in a saturated heterogeneous porous medium was simulated using the stochastic-convective reaction (SCR) approach. A laboratory flow cell was randomly packed with low permeability silt-size inclusions in a high permeability sand matrix. In the SCR upscaling approach, the characteristics of the flow field are determined by the breakthrough of a conservative tracer. Spatial information on the actual location of the heterogeneities is not used. The mass balance equations governing the nonlinear and multicomponent reactive transport are recast in terms of reactive transports in each of a finite number of discrete streamtubes. The streamtube ensemble members represent transport via a steady constant average velocity per streamtube and a conventional Fickian dispersion term, and their contributions to the observed breakthroughs are determined by flux-averaging the streamtube solute concentrations. The resulting simulations were compared to those from a high-resolution deterministic simulation of the reactive transport, and to alternative ensemble representations involving (i) effective Fickian travel time distribution function, (ii) purely convective streamtube transport, and (iii) streamtube ensemble subset simulations. The results of the SCR simulation compare favorably to that of a sophisticated high-resolution deterministic approach.     

Modelling remediation scenarios in historical mining catchments

Local remediation measures, particularly those undertaken in historical mining areas, can often be ineffective or even deleterious because erosion and sedimentation processes operate at spatial scales beyond those typically used in point-source remediation. Based on realistic simulations of a hybrid landscape evolution model combined with stochastic rainfall generation, we demonstrate that similar remediation strategies may result in differing effects across three contrasting European catchments depending on their topographic and hydrologic regimes. Based on these results, we propose a conceptual model of catchment-scale remediation effectiveness based on three basic catchment characteristics: the degree of contaminant source coupling, the ratio of contaminated to non-contaminated sediment delivery, and the frequency of sediment transport events.