Urban water demand and climate change

This paper presents a methodology for improved understanding of options for managing urban water demands under the uncertainties associated with climate change. It combines a sensitivity analysis of water supply with forecasts of water demand and examines how conservation efforts may offset deficits which result from climate change. It presents a case study of Nassau County, New York State, USA, that concludes that deficits projected for warmer climate scenarios can probably be alleviated by increased conservation. For scenarios of decreased precipitation, more extreme measures (eg rationing) may be necessary, illustrating the prudence of considering climate change in planning studies for communities which already experience water supply problems.     

UTILIZING INDUCED RECHARGE FOR REGIONAL AQUIFER MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The deep aquifers of the Portland Basin are used as a regional water supply by at least six municipalities in Oregon and Washington. Maximum continuous use of the aquifers in 1998 was 13 mgd and peak emergency use was 55 mgd. Continuous use of the deep aquifers at a rate of 55 mgd has been proposed and inchoate water rights have been reserved for expansion of pumping to 121 mgd. A study was completed, using a calibrated ground water flow model, to evaluate the role of induced recharge from the Columbia River in mitigating aquifer drawdown from continuous‐use and expanded pumping scenarios in the center and eastern areas of the basin. The absolute average residual was less than 3.6 feet for steady‐state model calibrations, and less than 8.0 feet for transient calibration to a 42 mgd pumping event in 1987 with 170 feet of drawdown. Continuous use of the aquifers at a rate of 55 mgd is predicted to increase drawdown to 210 feet. Expansion of pumping to 121 mgd in the center basin is predicted to cause 400 feet of drawdown. However, expansion of pumping in the east basin is predicted to result in only 220 feet of drawdown because of induced recharge from the Columbia River.     

EDWARDS AQUIFER EVALUATION: KINNEY COUNTY,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: The Edwards Aquifer is one of the most studied and most prolific aquifers in the United States. The aquifer is a heavily fractured and faulted carbonate aquifer with transmissivities in excess of 100 ft²/s. The City of San Antonio relies upon the Edwards Aquifer as its sole source for water. Much work has been done on quantifying recharge to the aquifer and discharge from wells and acquiring aquifer characteristics from pumping tests, specific capacity tests, and geophysical logs. Although the aquifer has been well studied in Bexar County, much less is known about the Edwards Aquifer in Kinney County. This is partly due to the lower population within the county (approximately 3,500 people) relative to the eastern counties (Uvalde, Medina, Bexar, Comal, and Hays) and the great distance of Kinney County from high profile discharge areas such as the City of San Antonio and Comal and San Marcos Springs. Three key products resulted from this study: (1) exploratory well drilling and the largest aquifer test in the county that were conducted to evaluate the well yields within a 10,000 acre study area in which a drawdown of 2.5 ft approximately 1.2 miles away was observed while pumping at approximately 4,600 gpm; (2) a recharge estimate for the Edwards Aquifer within Kinney County of approximately 71,382 ac‐ft/yr; and (3) locating the Brackettville Groundwater Divide from an evaluation of ground water flow direction and hydrograph analysis. These results help evaluate the complex hydraulics occurring within Kinney County and aid in development of ground water modeling that will be used in managing the Edwards Aquifer.     

Water Use for Hydraulic Fracturing of Oil and Gas in the South Platte River Basin,Colorado

Water use for oil and gas development (i.e., hydraulic fracturing) is a concern in semiarid basins where water supply is often stressed to meet demands, and oil and gas production can exacerbate the situation. Understanding the impacts of water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) on water availability in semiarid regions is critical for management and regulatory decisions. In the current work, we quantify water use for HF at several scales — from municipal to state‐wide — using the IHS Enerdeq database for the South Platte Basin. In addition, we estimate produced water (a by‐product of oil and gas production), using data from the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to explore reuse scenarios. The South Platte River Basin, located in northeastern Colorado, encompasses the Denver‐Metro area. The basin has one of the most productive oil and gas shale formations in Colorado, with much of the production occurring in Weld County. The basin has experienced higher horizontal drilling rates coupled with an increasing population. Results show water use for horizontal and vertical wells averages 11,000 and 1,000 m³, respectively. Water use for HF in the South Platte Basin totaled 0.63% of the basin's 2014 total water demand. For Weld County, water use for HF was 2.4% of total demand, and for the city of Greeley, water use was 7% of total demand. Produced water totaled 9.4 Mm³ in the basin for 2014, which represents 42% of the total water used for HF.     

ANALYTICAL REGRESSION STAGE ANALYSIS FOR DEVILS HOLE,DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Devils Hole is a collapse depression connected to the regional carbonate aquifer of the Death Valley ground water flow system. Devils Hole pool is home to an endangered pupfish that was threatened when irrigation pumping in nearby Ash Meadows lowered the pool stage in the 1960s. Pumping at Ash Meadows ultimately ceased, and the stage recovered until 1988, when it began to decline, a trend that continued until at least 2004. Regional ground water pumping and changes in recharge are considered the principal potential stresses causing long term stage changes. A regression was found between pumpage and Devils Hole water levels. Though precipitation in distant mountain ranges is the source of recharge to the flow system, the stage of Devils Hole shows small change in stage from 1937 to 1963, a period during which ground water withdrawals were small and the major stress on stage would have been recharge. Multiple regression analyses, made by including the cumulative departure from normal precipitation with pumpage as independent variables, did not improve the regression. Drawdown at Devils Hole was calculated by the Theis Equation for nearby pumping centers to incorporate time delay and drawdown attenuation. The Theis drawdowns were used as surrogates for pumpage in multiple regression analyses. The model coefficient for the regression, R²= 0.982, indicated that changes in Devils Hole were largely due to effects of pumping at Ash Meadows, Amargosa Desert, and Army 1.     

EVALUATION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER WITHDRAWALS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1995 TO 20251

To evaluate the long term sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, a county level analysis of the availability of renewable water resources was conducted, and the magnitudes of human withdrawals from surface water and ground water sources and the stored water requirements during the warmest months of the year were evaluated. Estimates of growth in population and electricity generation were then used to estimate the change in withdrawals assuming that the rates of water use either remain at their current levels (the business as usual scenario) or that they exhibit improvements in efficiency at the same rate as observed over 1975 to 1995 (the improved efficiency scenario). The estimates show several areas, notably the Southwest and major metropolitan areas throughout the United States, as being likely to have significant new storage requirements with the business‐as‐usual scenario, under the condition of average water availability. These new requirements could be substantially eliminated under the improved efficiency scenario, thus indicating the importance of water use efficiency in meeting future requirements. The national assessment identified regions of potential water sustainability concern; these regions can be the subject of more targeted data collection and analyses in the future.     

WATER SHORTAGES,DEVELOPMENT, AND DROUGHT IN ROCKLAND COUNTY,NEW YORK1

Knowledge of the historical variability of regional climate is an essential element of successful water resource planning. Lacking such perspective, planners and managers can be deceived as to the severity of a recent climate extreme, such as drought, and place a disproportionate blame on the climate, not the integrity of the supply system should water restrictions become necessary to avoid shortages. Presented here is a vivid example of how development, a lack of adequate planning, and climate variability have converged to produce three water emergencies in Rockland County, New York, since 1995. An examination of climate data over the past century indicates that the severity of the recent droughts was well within the range of past variability. Rather than climate alone, the recent water emergencies have highlighted a significant mismatch between supply and demand that has been developing in Rockland County over the past three decades. Substantial development, largely in the form of single‐family homes, has not been matched with a corresponding enhancement of the county's water system. Realistic plans for meeting current water demand will require cooperation among all stakeholders, beginning with an acknowledgement that climate variations are inevitable, not the sole source of blame when water shortages arise.     

SHALLOW AQUIFERS RELATIVE TO SURFACE WATER,LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY,WYOMING1

ABSTRACT. The occurrence of ground water in the lower North Platte Valley, Goshen County, Wyoming, was studied to determine safe yield within the alluvial aquifer under varying discharge and recharge conditions. The alluvium of the North Platte is extensively developed for irrigation purposes and the effects of large-scale pumpage are of major concern. Actual withdrawals are estimated to be 46,000 acre-feet. Should pumping reach potentially higher levels an overdraft is expected. Effect of ground water withdrawals are established from projections of the flow regime within the alluvial aquifer. A time dependent, numerical model was employed to predict aquifer response to increased withdrawals. The results suggest that more efficient use of surface waters and/or increased use of ground water will reduce the annual subsurface return flow to the North Platte River and its tributaries by an amount equal to the reduced ground water recharge increment. Alternatives are available for management of the lower North Platte alluvial aquifer. The preferred course is to correlate surface and subsurface water rights, in light of convenience, economics, and best means of storage for maximum utilization of the single water resource.     

GROUND WATER DROUGHT MANAGEMENT BY A FEEDFORWARD CONTROL METHOD1

ABSTRACT: Management of a regional ground water system to mitigate drought problems at the multi‐layered aquifer system in Collier County, Florida, is the main topic. This paper developed a feedforward control system that consists of system and control equations. The system equation, which forecasts ground water levels using the current measurements, was built based on the Kalman filter algorithm associated with a stochastic time series model. The role of the control equation is to estimate the pumping reduction rate during an anticipated drought. The control equation was built based on the empirical relationship between the change in ground water levels and the corresponding pumping requirement. The control system starts with forecasting one‐month‐ahead ground water head at each control point. The forecasted head is in turn used to calculate the deviation of ground water heads from the monthly target specified by a 2‐in‐10‐year frequency. When the forecasted water level is lower than the target, the control system computes spatially‐varied pumping reduction rates as a recommendation for ground water users. The proposed control system was tested using hypothetical droughts. The simulation result revealed that the estimated pumping reduction rates are highly variable in space, strongly supporting the idea of spatial forecasting and controlling of ground water levels as opposed to a lumped water use restriction method used previously in the model area.     

GROUND WATER YIELDS AND INVENTORY FOR LAND-USE PLANNING IN CRYSTALLINE ROCK AREAS OF WAKE COUNTY,NORTH CAROLINA1

In urbanizing areas underlain by crystalline rocks an inventory of the usable ground water should form an important element in the land-use planning process. Land-use decisions are most often made upon water-well yield data alone, but these data do not address the inventory question. A method utilizing local geology, stream lowflow characteristics, and pumping test data permitted outlining portions of Wake County, North Carolina, which are more favorable and those which are less favorable for ground water supply development. Information from state-required 24-hour pumping tests on 232 wells was supplemented by information from an additional 100 wells whose initial yields were determined by shorter pumping tests. Comparison of the ground water inventory values on a per acre or per square mile basis with average water use at various residential densities provides information useful to the responsible political body as it decides about population density distribution and the need for surface water supplies. For Wake Country an average density of one residential unit per acre appears generally permissible before overdraft of the ground water supplies becomes a significant risk. By utilizing the ground water inventory and patterns of ground water yields from various rock types, county officials can maximize the effectiveness of public facilities funds. The technique appears useful for other parts of the Piedmont region of the southeastern United States.     

SIMULATION OF REGIONAL GROUND WATER FLOW IN BEDROCK,SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK-NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of steady-state three-dimensional computer simulations to determine the hydrogeologic setting of formation water in the hydrocarbon producing formations of southwestern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Recharge areas for the regional ground water flow systems in the study area are the Valley Heads Moraine and Allegheny uplands; discharge areas are Lakes Erie and Ontario to the north and the northern margin of the Appalachian basin to the south. Simulated ground water flow in all model layers moves north from the ground water divide on the Valley Heads Moraine towards Lake Erie at a rate from 10^?-⁶ to 10^?-³ ft/day. South of the divide intermediate-scale and local-scale flow systems occur in the upper 4000 feet of the stratigraphic section and the directions of ground water flow diverge towards major rivers and other topographically low areas.     

A Comparison of Three Federal Datasets for Thermoelectric Water Withdrawals in the United States for 2010

Historically, thermoelectric water withdrawal has been estimated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) water‐use compilations. Recently, the USGS developed models for estimating withdrawal at thermoelectric plants to provide estimates independent from plant operator‐reported withdrawal data. This article compares three federal datasets of thermoelectric withdrawals for the United States in 2010: one based on the USGS water‐use compilation, another based on EIA data, and the third based on USGS model‐estimated data. The withdrawal data varied widely. Many plants had three different withdrawal values, and for approximately 54% of the plants the largest withdrawal value was twice the smallest, or larger. The causes of discrepancies among withdrawal estimates included definitional differences, definitional noise, and various nondefinitional causes. The uncertainty in national totals can be characterized by the range among the three datasets, from 5,640 m³/s (129 billion gallons per day [bgd]) to 6,954 m³/s (158 bgd), or by the aggregate difference between the smallest and largest values at each plant, from 4,014 m³/s (92 bgd) to 8,590 m³/s (196 bgd). When used to assess the accuracy of reported values, the USGS model estimates identify plants that need to be reviewed.     

BRACKISH GROUNDWATER DESALINATION: A COMMUNITY'S SOLUTION TO WATER SUPPLY AND AQUIFER PROTECTION1

The City of Cape May, New Jersey, draws its primary water supply from the Cohansey Aquifer, a unit serving residential, community, and industrial users throughout the Coastal Plain. By the year 2000, projected population growth will impose a peak water demand beyond available supplies. In addition, regional over-pumping threatens the Cohansey with saltwater intrusion, placing the city wells at risk by 1998. In the early-to mid 1990s, three broad categories of water-supply alternatives were evaluated by regional, state, and federal agencies — additional pumping from the Cohansey, conjunctive use of the Cohansey with other aquifers, and desalination of brackish groundwater. An approach was adopted in 1996 which derives up to 2 MGD from desalination of brackish groundwater, with the remaining peak demand satisfied by short-term pumpage from existing wells in the Cohansey. The first of two wells has been completed, yielding 1.4 MGD of brackish groundwater. Similar performance from the second well will exceed the design goal. When the initial system comes on line during the summer of 1998, New Jersey will have its first public water supply derived from desalinated groundwater. The use of desalinated groundwater balances competing demands for water resources in the southern Cape Region of New Jersey, allowing continued economic growth while reducing human impacts on a threatened aquifer.     

Efficient and Practical Approaches to Ground‐Water Right Transfers Under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine and the Snake River Example1

Abstract: Water right transfers are one of the basic means of implementing changes in water use in the highly appropriated water resource systems of the western United States. Many of these systems are governed by the Prior Appropriation Doctrine, which was not originally intended for application to ground‐water pumping and the conjunctive management of ground water and surface water, and thus creates an administrative challenge. That challenge results from the fact that ground‐water pumping can affect all interconnected surface‐water bodies and the effects may be immeasurably small relative to surface water discharge and greatly attenuated in time. Although we may have the ability to calculate the effects of ground‐water pumping and transfers of pumping location on surface‐water bodies, mitigating for all the impacts of each individual transfer is sufficiently inefficient that it impedes the transfer process, frustrates water users, and consequently inhibits economic development. A more holistic approach to ground‐water right transfers, such as a ground‐water accounting or banking scheme, may adequately control transfer third‐party effects while reducing mitigation requirements on individual transfers. Acceptance of an accounting scheme can accelerate the transfer process, and possibly reduce the administrative burden.     

CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE AND GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE JAKARTA REGION,INDONESIA1

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the degree of economic inefficiency of the current institutional arrangements for surface and ground water management in meeting urban water demand in the Jakarta region. A numerical model of integrated surface and ground water management is developed using GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) software. The model maximizes the net present value of social benefits from piped water and ground water consumption across all users over time from 1999 to 2025. Four policy scenarios are examined: the status quo, the social planner's solution, and two ground water pumping quota scenarios: an aggregate ground water pumping quota and a partial quota applied to commercial and industrial users. Three variations in each policy scenario are considered: investment in water infrastructure of the Jakarta water enterprise (PAM Jaya), water demand growth, and discount rates. The status quo, depending on the investment option, the growth of water demand, and the discount rate, results in a 7.4 to 47.8 percent loss in economic efficiency relative to the social planner's solution. The partial quota is the most feasible, applicable, and manageable scenario. The optimal investment option could increase the volume of piped water supply and reduce the cost of water production. The volume of water delivery could increase by up to 156 percent, but it implies only a 35 percent increase in the surface raw water demands above the current level. However, it does not significantly reduce cumulative ground water extraction over the time period considered.     

HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO PUMPING AND CONTAMINANT ADVECTION IN A FRACTURED ROCK ENVIRONMENT1

ABSTRACT: Ground water flow and supply at the Whiteshell Research Area (WRA) in southeastern Manitoba and the advective movement of contaminants from a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault to the adjacent biosphere and a nearby ground water supply well are simulated using finite-element modeling and numerical particle-tracking technique. The hypothetical vault is located at a depth of 500 m, below the water table, in low-permeability plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. The rock mass is intersected by high-permeability fracture zones (aquifers), which also act as conduits for vault contaminants to migrate to the ground surface. The ground water resource is, therefore, limited in quantity and quality and should be explored with care. A 30 m deep well, which pumps water at a rate of 120 m³/yr from a low-dipping fracture zone, LD1, reduces natural discharge from the system to augment natural recharge. At this pumping rate, a 100 m or 200 m deep well neither reduces discharge nor induces recharge into the system. Thus, at the WRA, a 30 m deep domestic water supply well best meets the water requirements of a one-person household at the rate of 120 m³/yr. The 100 m and 200 m wells best meet the requirements of a family of six and a family of six with light irrigation, respectively, without capturing contaminants’pathways from the vault to the ground surface. By virtue of the proximity of the 200 m well intake to the hypothetical vault, this well performs best as a purge well at pumping rates of 0,000 m³/yr and greater. Finite-element modeling is useful in evaluating the water supply potential of a fractured rock environment in which a nuclear waste disposal vault is proposed to be sited.     

A DIGITAL MODEL APPLIED TO GROUND WATER RECHARGE AND MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Under Colorado's appropriative water right system, withdrawals by junior ground water rights must be curtailed to protect senior surface water appropriators sharing the same river system unless the ground water users replace the amount of their injury to the river under an approved plan for augmentation. Compensation of such injury with surface water may not only be expensive but unreliable in dry years. As an alternative, the curtailment of pumping may be obviated by recharging unused surface water into the aquifer when available and withdrawing it when needed. In order to manage such an operation, a practical tool is required to accurately determine that portion of the recharge water that does not return to the river before pumping for irrigation. A digital model was used for this purpose in a demonstration recharge project located in the South Platte River basin in northeastern Colorado. This paper summarizes the experiences gained from this project, the results of the digital model, the economic value of recharge, and the feasibility of the operation. It was determined through the use of the digital model that, with the given conditions in the area, 77 percent of the recharged water remained available for pumping. Economic analyses showed that water could be recharged inexpensively averaging about two dollars per acre foot.     

SUBSURFACE RETURN FLOW AND GROUND WATER RECHARGE OF TERRACE FIELDS IN NORTHERN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study estimates subsurface return flow and effective ground water recharge in terraced fields in northern Taiwan. Specifically, a three dimensional model, FEMWATER, was applied to simulate percolation and lateral seepage in the terraced fields under various conditions. In the terraced paddy fields, percolation mainly moves vertically downward in the central area, while lateral seepage is mainly focused around the bund. Although the simulated lateral seepage rate through the bund exceeded the percolation rate in the central area of the paddy field, annual subsurface return flow at Pei‐Chi and Shin‐Men was 0.17 × 10⁶ m³ and 0.37 × 10⁶ m³, representing only 0.17 percent and 0.21 percent of the total irrigation water required for rice growth at Pei‐Chi and Shin‐Men, respectively. For upland fields, the effective ground water recharge rate during the second crop period (July to November) exceeded that during the first crop period (January to May) because of the wet season in the second crop period. Terraced paddy fields have the most efficient ground water recharge, with 21.2 to 23.4 percent of irrigation water recharging to ground water, whereas upland fields with a plow layer have the least efficient ground water recharge, with only 4.8 to 6.6 percent of irrigation water recharging to ground water. The simulation results clearly revealed that a substantial amount of irrigation water recharges to ground water in the terraced paddy, while only a small amount of subsurface return flow seeps from the upstream to the downstream terraced paddy. The amounts of subsurface flow and ground water recharge determined in the study are useful for the irrigation water planning and management and provide a scientific basis to reevaluate water resources management in the terrace region under irrigated rice.     

Estimating Hydraulic Properties of Volcanic Aquifers Using Constant‐Rate and Variable‐Rate Aquifer Tests1

Abstract: In recent years the ground‐water demand of the population of the island of Maui, Hawaii, has significantly increased. To ensure prudent management of the ground‐water resources, an improved understanding of ground‐water flow systems is needed. At present, large‐scale estimations of aquifer properties are lacking for Maui. Seven analytical methods using constant‐rate and variable‐rate withdrawals for single wells provide an estimate of hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity for 103 wells in central Maui. Methods based on constant‐rate tests, although not widely used on Maui, offer reasonable estimates. Step‐drawdown tests, which are more abundantly used than other tests, provide similar estimates as constant‐rate tests. A numerical model validates the suitability of analytical solutions for step‐drawdown tests and additionally provides an estimate of storage parameters. The results show that hydraulic conductivity is log‐normally distributed and that for dike‐free volcanic rocks it ranges over several orders of magnitude from 1 to 2,500 m/d. The arithmetic mean, geometric mean, and median values of hydraulic conductivity are respectively 520, 280, and 370 m/d for basalt and 80, 50, and 30 m/d for sediment. A geostatistical approach using ordinary kriging yields a prediction of hydraulic conductivity on a larger scale. Overall, the results are in agreement with values published for other Hawaiian islands.     

Evaluation of Ground‐Water and Surface‐Water Exchanges Using Streamflow Difference Analyses1

Abstract: In the karstic lower Flint River Basin, limestone fracturing, jointing, and subsequent dissolution have resulted in the development of extensive secondary permeability and created a system of major conduits that facilitate the exchange of water between the Upper Floridan aquifer and Flint River. Historical streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations located in Albany and Newton, Georgia, were used to quantify ground‐water and surface‐water exchanges within a 55.3 km section of the Flint River. Using data from 2001, we compared estimates of ground‐water flux using a time adjustment method to a water balance equation and found that these independent approaches yielded similar results. The associated error was relatively large during high streamflow when unsteady conditions prevail, but much lower during droughts. Flow reversals were identified by negative streamflow differences and verified with in situ data from temperature sensors placed inside large spring conduits. Long‐term (13 years) analysis showed negative streamflow differentials (i.e., a losing stream condition) coincided with high river stages and indicated that streamflow intrusion into the aquifer could potentially exceed 150 m³/s. Although frequent negative flow differentials were evident, the Flint River was typically a gaining stream and showed a large net increase in flow between the two gages when examined over the period 1989‐2003. Ground‐water contributions to this stream section averaged 2‐42 m³/s with a mean of 13 m³/s. The highest rate of ground‐water discharge to the Flint River occurred during the spring when regional ground‐water levels peaked following heavy winter and spring rains and corresponding rates of evapotranspiration were low. During periods of extreme drought, ground‐water contributions to the Flint River declined.