EDWARDS AQUIFER EVALUATION: KINNEY COUNTY,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: The Edwards Aquifer is one of the most studied and most prolific aquifers in the United States. The aquifer is a heavily fractured and faulted carbonate aquifer with transmissivities in excess of 100 ft²/s. The City of San Antonio relies upon the Edwards Aquifer as its sole source for water. Much work has been done on quantifying recharge to the aquifer and discharge from wells and acquiring aquifer characteristics from pumping tests, specific capacity tests, and geophysical logs. Although the aquifer has been well studied in Bexar County, much less is known about the Edwards Aquifer in Kinney County. This is partly due to the lower population within the county (approximately 3,500 people) relative to the eastern counties (Uvalde, Medina, Bexar, Comal, and Hays) and the great distance of Kinney County from high profile discharge areas such as the City of San Antonio and Comal and San Marcos Springs. Three key products resulted from this study: (1) exploratory well drilling and the largest aquifer test in the county that were conducted to evaluate the well yields within a 10,000 acre study area in which a drawdown of 2.5 ft approximately 1.2 miles away was observed while pumping at approximately 4,600 gpm; (2) a recharge estimate for the Edwards Aquifer within Kinney County of approximately 71,382 ac‐ft/yr; and (3) locating the Brackettville Groundwater Divide from an evaluation of ground water flow direction and hydrograph analysis. These results help evaluate the complex hydraulics occurring within Kinney County and aid in development of ground water modeling that will be used in managing the Edwards Aquifer.     

Evaluation of Ground‐Water and Surface‐Water Exchanges Using Streamflow Difference Analyses1

Abstract: In the karstic lower Flint River Basin, limestone fracturing, jointing, and subsequent dissolution have resulted in the development of extensive secondary permeability and created a system of major conduits that facilitate the exchange of water between the Upper Floridan aquifer and Flint River. Historical streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations located in Albany and Newton, Georgia, were used to quantify ground‐water and surface‐water exchanges within a 55.3 km section of the Flint River. Using data from 2001, we compared estimates of ground‐water flux using a time adjustment method to a water balance equation and found that these independent approaches yielded similar results. The associated error was relatively large during high streamflow when unsteady conditions prevail, but much lower during droughts. Flow reversals were identified by negative streamflow differences and verified with in situ data from temperature sensors placed inside large spring conduits. Long‐term (13 years) analysis showed negative streamflow differentials (i.e., a losing stream condition) coincided with high river stages and indicated that streamflow intrusion into the aquifer could potentially exceed 150 m³/s. Although frequent negative flow differentials were evident, the Flint River was typically a gaining stream and showed a large net increase in flow between the two gages when examined over the period 1989‐2003. Ground‐water contributions to this stream section averaged 2‐42 m³/s with a mean of 13 m³/s. The highest rate of ground‐water discharge to the Flint River occurred during the spring when regional ground‐water levels peaked following heavy winter and spring rains and corresponding rates of evapotranspiration were low. During periods of extreme drought, ground‐water contributions to the Flint River declined.     

Comparison of 85Kr and 3H Apparent Ground‐Water Ages for Source Water Vulnerability in the Collyer River Catchment,Maine1

Abstract: Apparent ground‐water ages as determined by the noble gas isotope ⁸⁵Kr and the water isotope ³H are compared. Refined gas extraction methodology at the wellhead permits efficient collection of Kr for ⁸⁵Kr isotope enrichment. ⁸⁵Kr isochrones elucidate areas of much younger ground‐water ages than ³H. Declining ³H activities in the catchment prevent its correlation with the youngest measured ⁸⁵Kr ages. Source water for most drinking water supplies in the Collyer River catchment is recharged within 40 years BP (2004). Mean‐age (τ) transport modeling suggests uncertainty of ground‐water ages is greatest in the central basin area.     

Relative Effects of Climate and Water Use on Base‐Flow Trends in the Lower Klamath Basin1

Abstract: Since the 1940s, snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased throughout the Pacific Northwest, while water use has increased. Climate has been proposed as the primary cause of base‐flow decline in the Scott River, an important coho salmon rearing tributary in the Klamath Basin. We took a comparative‐basin approach to estimating the relative contributions of climatic and non‐climatic factors to this decline. We used permutation tests to compare discharge in 5 streams and 16 snow courses between “historic” (1942‐1976) and “modern” (1977‐2005) time periods, defined by cool and warm phases, respectively, of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. April 1 SWE decreased significantly at most snow courses lower than 1,800 m in elevation and increased slightly at higher elevations. Correspondingly, base flow decreased significantly in the two streams with the lowest latitude‐adjusted elevation and increased slightly in two higher‐elevation streams. Base‐flow decline in the Scott River, the only study stream heavily utilized for irrigation, was larger than that in all other streams and larger than predicted by elevation. Based on comparison with a neighboring stream draining wilderness, we estimate that 39% of the observed 10 Mm³ decline in July 1‐October 22 discharge in the Scott River is explained by regional‐scale climatic factors. The remainder of the decline is attributable to local factors, which include an increase in irrigation withdrawal from 48 to 103 Mm³/year since the 1950s.     

Urban Land Use,Channel Incision,and Water Table Decline Along Coastal Plain Streams,North Carolina1

Abstract: This study evaluates the effects of urban land use on stream channels and riparian ground‐water levels along low‐order Inner Coastal Plain streams in North Carolina. Six sites with stream catchments of similar size (1.19‐3.46 km²) within the Tar River Basin were selected across an urban land use gradient, as quantified by a range of catchment total impervious area (TIA; 3.8‐36.7%). Stream stage and ground‐water levels within three floodplain monitoring wells were measured manually and using pressure transducers from May 2006‐June 2007. Channel incision ratio (CIR), the ratio of bank height to bankfull height, was also measured at each monitoring site and along stream reaches within the study area (12 urban and 12 rural sites). Riparian ground‐water levels were inversely related to catchment TIA (%). As TIA (%) and stormwater runoff increased, the degree of stream channel incision increased and riparian ground‐water tables declined. In urban floodplains (>15% TIA), the median ground‐water level was 0.84 m deeper than for the rural settings (<15% TIA). This has resulted in a shift to drier conditions in the urban riparian zones, particularly during the summer months. CIR was found to be a reliable surface indicator of “riparian hydrologic drought” in these settings.     

IDENTIFYING DISCHARGE ZONES OF ARSENIC IN THE GOOSE RIVER BASIN,MAINE1

ABSTRACT: Water balance modeling and the analysis of stable water isotopes in ground water were conducted to aid the location of ground water discharge areas within the Goose River basin, in mid‐coastal Maine. Previous investigations of drinking water from wells in the fractured crystalline bedrock encountered persistent elevated total arsenic. Such contamination may be related to discharging ground water from fractured zones in the basin. Modeled discharge rates greater than +10 cm/yr and ¹⁸O values lighter than‐9.5 per mil VSMOW may indicate recent recharge is mixing with deeper ground water and is focused along some fractured zones in arsenic bearing crystalline rocks.     

A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin

The Pacific Northwest is expected to witness changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. In this study, we enhance the Snake River Planning Model (SRPM) by modeling the feedback loop between incidental recharge and surface water supply resulting from surface water and groundwater extraction for irrigation and provide a case study involving climate change impacts and management scenarios. The new System Dynamics‐Snake River Planning Model (SD‐SRPM) is calibrated to flow at Box Canyon Springs located along a major outlet of the East Snake Plain Aquifer. A calibration of the model to flow at Box Canyon Springs, based on historic diversions (1950‐1995) resulted in an r² value of 0.74 and a validation (1996‐2005) r² value of 0.60. After adding irrigation entities to the model an r² value of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 were maintained for modeled vs. observed (1991‐2005) end‐of‐month reservoir content in Jackson Lake, Palisades, and American Falls, the three largest irrigation reservoirs in the system. The scenarios that compared the impacts of climate change were based on ensemble mean precipitation change scenarios and estimated changes to crop evapotranspiration (ET). Increased ET, despite increased precipitation, generally increased surface water shortages and discharge of springs. This study highlights the need to develop and implement models that integrate the human‐natural system to understand the impacts of climate change.     

HYDROLOGICAL EFFECTS OF AN UNCONTROLLED FLOWING WELL,RED RIVER VALLEY,NORTH DAKOTA,USA1

ABSTRACT: In areas of the Red River Valley that overlie permeable Paleozoic sediments, wetlands and salinization have developed where unregulated flowing wells discharge brackish water. Field data were collected to assess the fate of water and salt from a well 25 km northwest of Grand Forks. Drilled during the drought of the 1930s, discharge was used to replenish water in a small oxbow pond used by livestock. The unregulated well discharges about 56 m³/day, measured since 1993. This discharge exceeds ground water flow from the site, thereby forming a ground water mound with a maximum height of 1 m and a diameter of about 300 m. Most soil and underlying sediments near the well have a hydraulic conductivity of 0.3 m³/day. Flow net analysis suggests that less than 25 percent infiltrates, with the remaining water lost to surface flow and evapotranspiration (ET). Evapotranspiration and slow infiltration has led to increased salinization, with shallow soils exhibiting EC to 500 milliSiemens/m. The most pronounced soil salinization occurs along the margins of the oxbow pond and meander scars. Wetland vegetation with low diversity comprises three zones, with species associations similar to those of closed basin prairie potholes to the west.     

GROUND WATER SEEPAGE IN LAKE WASHINGTON AND THE UPPER ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN,FLORIDA1

Direct ground water seepage measurements were made in Lake Washington, Florida, to determine the importance of seepage as a water and chloride source to the lake and upper St. Johns River. Over 200 seepage measurements were made in the lake and adjoining canals from July through December 1978. Results indicated that seepage into the shore areas of Lake Washington was an insignificant water source to the lake, representing 0.6 percent of the inputs, and was nearly balanced by ground water recharge in the midlake region. Drainage canals entering Lake Washington, however, exhibited high average seepage rates (17.7 L/m²-day), over eight times the lake average (2.01 L/M²-day). Discharge from the St. Johns River was the dominant factor in the water budget of Lake Washington and represented approximately 88 percent of the inputs during the study year. Although inputs from the drainage canals represented only 6.6 percent of the St. Johns River annual discharge, these canals represented 20.4 percent of the annual St. Johns River chloride loading and 62.1 percent of the river chloride loading during the five driest months of 1978. Evidence from this study indicates that rising levels of chloride in the river in recent years are largely attributable to ground water seepage in channelized areas, particularly in the headwaters. These chloride inputs assume greater importance during low water/low flow periods.     

HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS OF GREATER GROUND‐WATER RECHARGE TO LAS VEGAS VALLEY,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Published estimates of natural recharge in Las Vegas Valley range between 21,000 and 35,000 acre‐feet per year. This study examined the underlying assumptions of previous investigations and evaluated the altitude‐precipitation relationships. Period‐of‐record averages from high altitude precipitation gages established in the 1940s through the 1990s, were used to determine strong local altitude‐precipitation relationships that indicate new total precipitation and natural recharge amounts and a new spatial distribution of that recharge. This investigation calculated about 51,000 acre‐feet per year of natural recharge in the Las Vegas Hydrographic Basin, with an additional 6,000 acre‐feet per year from areas tributary to Las Vegas Valley, for a total of 57,000 acre‐feet per year. The total amount of natural recharge is greater than estimates from earlier investigations and is consistent with a companion study of natural discharge, which estimated 53,000 acre‐feet per year of outflow. The hydrologic implications of greater recharge in Las Vegas Valley infer a more accurate ground‐water budget and a better understanding of ground‐water recharge that will be represented in a ground‐water model. Thus model based ground‐water management scenarios will more realistically access impacts to the ground‐water system.     

Upstream Sediment‐Control Dams: Five Decades of Experience in the Rapidly Eroding Dahan River Basin,Taiwan

Sedimentation is emerging as a key issue in sustainable reservoir management. One approach to controlling reservoir sedimentation is to trap sediment in hydraulic structures upstream of the reservoir. In the 1,163‐km² catchment of the Dahan River (Taiwan) over 120 “sabo” dams were built to reduce sediment yield to Shihmen Reservoir. Built in 1963 for water supply, Shihmen has lost over 40% of its 290‐Mm³ storage capacity to sedimentation. Most of these upstream structures were small, but three had capacities >9 Mm³. Field measurements and historical data from the Water Resources Agency show most smaller dams had filled with sediment by 1976. The three largest were full or nearly so by 2007, when one (Barlin Dam) failed, releasing a pulse of 7.5 Mm³, most of its 10.4 Mm³ stored sediment downstream. The Central Range of Taiwan is rapidly eroding (denudation rates 3‐6 mm/yr), so geologically high loads make sediment problems manifest sooner. Even in other environments, however, eventually small dams built upstream of large reservoirs are likely to fill themselves, creating multiple small sediment‐filled reservoirs, some located in sites inaccessible to mechanical removal. Our analysis suggests sabo dams do not offer a long‐term basis for controlling reservoir sedimentation in such a high‐sediment yield environment. Sustainable solutions must somehow pass sediment downstream, as would be accomplished by a sediment bypass around Shihmen Reservoir, as now being studied.     

A Retrospective Look at the Water Resource Management Policies in Nassau County,Long Island,New York1

Abstract: The residents of Nassau County Long Island, New York receive all of their potable drinking water from the Upper Glacial, Jameco/Magothy (Magothy), North Shore, and Lloyd aquifers. As the population of Nassau County grew from 1930 to 1970, the demand on the ground‐water resources also grew. However, no one was looking at the potential impact of withdrawing up to 180 mgd (7.9 m³/s) by over 50 independent water purveyors. Some coastal community wells on the north and south shores of Nassau County were being impacted by saltwater intrusion. The New York State Legislature formed a commission to look into the water resources in 1972. The commission projected extensive population growth and a corresponding increase in pumping resulting in a projected 93.5 to 123 mgd (4.1 to 5.5 m³/s) deficit by 2000. In 1986, the New York Legislature passed legislation to strengthen the well permit program and also establish a moratorium on new withdrawals from the Lloyd aquifer to protect the coastal community’s only remaining supply of drinking water. Over 30 years has passed since the New York Legislature made these population and pumping projections and it is time to take a look at the accuracy of the projections that led to the moratorium. United States Census data shows that the population of Nassau County did not increase but decreased from 1970 to 2000. Records show that pumping in Nassau County was relatively stable fluctuating between 170 and 200 mgd (7.5 to 8.8 m³/s) from 1970 to 2004, well below the projection of 242 to 321 mgd (10.6 to 14.1 m³/s). Therefore, the population and water demand never grew to projected values and the projected threat to the coastal communities has diminished. With a stable population and water demand, its time to take a fresh look at proactive ground‐water resource management in Nassau County. One example of proactive ground‐water management that is being considered in New Jersey where conditions are similar uses a ground‐water flow model to balance ground water withdrawals, an interconnection model to match supply with demand using available interconnections, and a hydraulic model to balance flow in water mains. New Jersey also conducted an interconnection study to look into how systems with excess capacity could be used to balance withdrawals in stressed aquifer areas with withdrawals in unstressed areas. Using these proactive ground‐water management tools, ground‐water extraction could be balanced across Nassau County to mitigate potential impacts from saltwater intrusion and provide most water purveyors with a redundant supply that could be used during water emergencies.     

The South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project of China: Environmental Implications and Monitoring Strategy1

Abstract: In 2002, China launched the South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project after completing a 50‐year feasibility study. By 2050, the three‐route (i.e., East, Middle, and West) project will be capable of transferring 44.8 billion m³/year of water from the water rich Yangtze River to the arid north to alleviate water shortage and help secure a balanced social and economic development across the nation. However, diversion of such a large quantity of water could profoundly change the riverine environment of the upper Yellow River and the lower reach of the Han River, a tributary of the Yangtze River and the water supplying area of the project’s Middle Route, because of changes in the annual discharge. Secondary salinization seems inevitable in the water receiving areas of the North China Plain, and decrease in the discharge of the Yangtze River will result in seawater intrusion into the Yangtze Delta. This paper describes the project and discusses its environmental implications. Additionally, a long‐term monitoring strategy under the umbrella of the Chinese Ecological Research Network is proposed for environmental monitoring.     

Estimating Nitrogen Loading to Ground Water and Assessing Vulnerability to Nitrate Contamination in a Large Karstic Springs Basin,Florida1

Abstract: A nitrogen (N) mass‐balance budget was developed to assess the sources of N affecting increasing ground‐water nitrate concentrations in the 960‐km² karstic Ichetucknee Springs basin. This budget included direct measurements of N species in rainfall, ground water, and spring waters, along with estimates of N loading from fertilizers, septic tanks, animal wastes, and the land application of treated municipal wastewater and residual solids. Based on a range of N leaching estimates, N loads to ground water ranged from 262,000 to 1.3 million kg/year; and were similar to N export from the basin in spring waters (266,000 kg/year) when 80‐90% N losses were assumed. Fertilizers applied to cropland, lawns, and pine stands contributed about 51% of the estimated total annual N load to ground water in the basin. Other sources contributed the following percentages of total N load to ground water: animal wastes, 27%; septic tanks, 12%; atmospheric deposition, 8%; and the land application of treated wastewater and biosolids, 2%. Due to below normal rainfall (97.3 cm) during the 12‐month rainfall collection period, N inputs from rainfall likely were about 30% lower than estimates for normal annual rainfall (136 cm). Low N‐isotope values for six spring waters (δ¹⁵N‐NO₃ = 3.3 to 6.3‰) and elevated potassium concentrations in ground water and spring waters were consistent with the large N contribution from fertilizers. Given ground‐water residence times on the order of decades for spring waters, possible sinks for excess N inputs to the basin include N storage in the unsaturated zone and parts of the aquifer with relatively sluggish ground‐water movement and denitrification. A geographical‐based model of spatial loading from fertilizers indicated that areas most vulnerable to nitrate contamination were located in closed depressions containing sinkholes and other dissolution features in the southern half of the basin.     

Water Use for Hydraulic Fracturing of Oil and Gas in the South Platte River Basin,Colorado

Water use for oil and gas development (i.e., hydraulic fracturing) is a concern in semiarid basins where water supply is often stressed to meet demands, and oil and gas production can exacerbate the situation. Understanding the impacts of water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) on water availability in semiarid regions is critical for management and regulatory decisions. In the current work, we quantify water use for HF at several scales — from municipal to state‐wide — using the IHS Enerdeq database for the South Platte Basin. In addition, we estimate produced water (a by‐product of oil and gas production), using data from the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to explore reuse scenarios. The South Platte River Basin, located in northeastern Colorado, encompasses the Denver‐Metro area. The basin has one of the most productive oil and gas shale formations in Colorado, with much of the production occurring in Weld County. The basin has experienced higher horizontal drilling rates coupled with an increasing population. Results show water use for horizontal and vertical wells averages 11,000 and 1,000 m³, respectively. Water use for HF in the South Platte Basin totaled 0.63% of the basin's 2014 total water demand. For Weld County, water use for HF was 2.4% of total demand, and for the city of Greeley, water use was 7% of total demand. Produced water totaled 9.4 Mm³ in the basin for 2014, which represents 42% of the total water used for HF.     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

SIMULATION OF REGIONAL GROUND WATER FLOW IN BEDROCK,SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK-NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of steady-state three-dimensional computer simulations to determine the hydrogeologic setting of formation water in the hydrocarbon producing formations of southwestern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Recharge areas for the regional ground water flow systems in the study area are the Valley Heads Moraine and Allegheny uplands; discharge areas are Lakes Erie and Ontario to the north and the northern margin of the Appalachian basin to the south. Simulated ground water flow in all model layers moves north from the ground water divide on the Valley Heads Moraine towards Lake Erie at a rate from 10^?-⁶ to 10^?-³ ft/day. South of the divide intermediate-scale and local-scale flow systems occur in the upper 4000 feet of the stratigraphic section and the directions of ground water flow diverge towards major rivers and other topographically low areas.     

ISOTOPE HYDROLOGY DYNAMICS OF RIVERINE WETLANDS IN THE KANKAKEE WATERSHED,INDIANA1

ABSTRACT: Wetland restoration activities may disturb shallow ground‐water flow dynamics. There may be unintentional sources of water flowing into a constructed wetland that could compromise the long‐term viability of a wetland function. Measurement of naturally‐occurring isotopes in the hydrosphere can provide an indication of provenance, flow paths or components, and residence times or ages of wetland ground‐water flow systems. Hydraulic head measurements may not provide sufficient detail of shallow flow disturbances and can be complemented by analyzing isotopes in waters flowing through the wetland. Two north‐central Indiana wetlands in the Kankakee watershed are being studied to determine the adequacy of wetland restoration activities. The native LaSalle wetland and the restored Hog Marsh wetland have contrasting ground‐water flow regimes. The conservative water isotopes ¹⁸O, ²H, and ³H, and selected solute isotopes ¹³C, ¹⁴C, ¹⁵N, ³⁴S, ⁸⁷Sr, and 206–208Pb, demonstrate the complexity of ground‐water flow in Hog Marsh compared to the established flow regime at the LaSalle wetland.     

Efficient and Practical Approaches to Ground‐Water Right Transfers Under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine and the Snake River Example1

Abstract: Water right transfers are one of the basic means of implementing changes in water use in the highly appropriated water resource systems of the western United States. Many of these systems are governed by the Prior Appropriation Doctrine, which was not originally intended for application to ground‐water pumping and the conjunctive management of ground water and surface water, and thus creates an administrative challenge. That challenge results from the fact that ground‐water pumping can affect all interconnected surface‐water bodies and the effects may be immeasurably small relative to surface water discharge and greatly attenuated in time. Although we may have the ability to calculate the effects of ground‐water pumping and transfers of pumping location on surface‐water bodies, mitigating for all the impacts of each individual transfer is sufficiently inefficient that it impedes the transfer process, frustrates water users, and consequently inhibits economic development. A more holistic approach to ground‐water right transfers, such as a ground‐water accounting or banking scheme, may adequately control transfer third‐party effects while reducing mitigation requirements on individual transfers. Acceptance of an accounting scheme can accelerate the transfer process, and possibly reduce the administrative burden.     

Hydrologic Model Framework for Water Resources Planning in the Santa Cruz River,Southern Arizona1

Abstract: The authors develop a model framework that includes a set of hydrologic modules as a water resources management and planning tool for the upper Santa Cruz River near the Mexican border, Southern Arizona. The modules consist of: (1) stochastic generation of hourly precipitation scenarios that maintain the characteristics and variability of a 45‐year hourly precipitation record from a nearby rain gauge; (2) conceptual transformation of generated precipitation into daily streamflow using varied infiltration rates and estimates of the basin antecedent moisture conditions; and (3) surface‐water to ground‐water interaction for four downstream microbasins that accounts for alluvial ground‐water recharge, and ET and pumping losses. To maintain the large inter‐annual variability of streamflow as prevails in Southern Arizona, the model framework is constructed to produce three types of seasonal winter and summer categories of streamflow (i.e., wet, medium, or dry). Long‐term (i.e., 100 years) realizations (ensembles) are generated by the above described model framework that reflects two different regimes of inter annual variability. The first regime is that of the historic streamflow gauge record. The second regime is that of the tree ring reconstructed precipitation, which was derived for the study location. Generated flow ensembles for these two regimes are used to evaluate the risk that the regional four ground‐water microbasins decline below a preset storage threshold under different operational water utilization scenarios.