Duty and Standards of Care for Drinking Water Regulation in Australia

The application of mandatory drinking water standards in Australia should ensure a basic water quality for all communities, with some standards written as a function of population. The main tenet of feasibility would be the capture of public benefits which foreseeably outweighed costs. Benefit-cost analysis can be a very valuable tool which aids in the decision process, however care must be taken to avoid institutional abuse or an over-positioned stature because of its applicative constraints.Many of the benefits associated with drinking water standards will often defy accurate itemization or monetization, and hence feasibility will frequently rely on approximations and a close analysis of case merits. Risk assessment is often used to estimate benefits accrued. Two common methods for valuing water quality are (a) cost of illness approaches, and (b) willingness to pay to avoid risk. The advantage of willingness to pay is that it engenders a larger interpretation of cost and quality value, and allows the community to rank preferences based on their willingness to avoid unnecessary risks.Given the technicalities and details in 'smart' water quality regulation which avoids unnecessary intrusion caused by ill-founded and unresolved clarity, lengthy drafting deliberations may often be necessary. The statutory and administrative structure of a future regulator is therefore a fundamental facet under-pinning the success of a comprehensive and responsive mandatory program. The process and rationale for regulatory development should be transparent and open, and this should include mandatory opportunities for public input during regulation drafting. Post inauguration mechanisms for suggestions on possible improvements and review of real world application should be considered important aspects of this process. Good models for comparison currently exist in the United States and Europe.     

自然观光地旅游者的风险感知变化及差异分析——以九寨沟自然风景区为例

旅游风险感知就是旅游者在其旅游行为前及过程中对可能发生的负面结果的感知,风险感知目前已成为旅游安全研究中的重要内容。通过构建旅游者风险感知量表,以九寨沟为案例地进行实证研究得出：（1）旅游者感知风险主要分为3个维度：功能障碍型、危机事件型及文化冲突型;（2）旅游者的总体风险感知较小,其中功能障碍型风险较大,其次为危机事件和文化冲突,并且地震等危机事件并未成为旅游者担心的主要风险;（3）不同旅游者的差异主要体现在“花费冤枉钱”、“迷路或与同伴走失”、“语言障碍”等方面,性别、地域、是否经历过灾害、是否买保险、是否带药品等因素对各类风险感知差异没有显著影响。旅游者风险感知研究为完善旅游安全理论提供了参考,并且对旅游地的风险管理提供了依据,具有指导和借鉴意义     

Areas of uncertainty in comparing risks of energy systems

In the past, the safety of technology has mainly been ensured by deterministic criteria that were based on engineering principles and on experience. Recently, however, it has become necessary to include risk assessment into safety policy. This need arises due to the order of magnitude of possible health and environmental impact from normal operation or accidents, as well as the complexity of modern systems that no longer allow for intuitive understanding of possible accident sequences. Assessment of risks of technical installations is subject to large uncertainties that are caused by lack of data and inadequate quantification and evaluation methods. This paper reviews the main areas of uncertainties with regard to their importance for decisionmaking. Uncertainties are an inherent part of any risk assessment result and can never be avoided. It is thus important to pay particular attention to them including limitations of methods, sensitivity to assumptions about parameters, and site-specific considerations. All this information must be described in great detail so that it can be integrated into the decisionmaking process. If applied in this context, risk assessment is a useful tool for identifying major contributors to risk and effective actions of risk management.     

近岸海域沉积物重金属生态风险评价模型对比研究

重金属污染被认为是2l世纪影响人类生存与健康的重要环境问题，该类物质极易在近岸海域沉积环境富集，因此海洋沉积物重金属污染已成为人们关注的全球性的环境问题之一，而重金属生态风险评价则成为污染生态学研究的前沿。综述了重金属的形态及生物有效性、重金属污染程度评价方法、重金属生态效应评价法等3种典型生态风险评价方法，结合国内外研究现状对不同的生态风险评价的方法和技术手段进行对比研究，并讨论了相关模型的适用范围及局限性。主要结论如下：金属的赋存形态是基于操作定义的，采用不同的提取方法及提取过程中使用的不同试剂都会对分析结果产生影响；重金属污染程度评价方法难以反映沉积物中重金属的化学活性和生物可利用性；生态效应评价方法从重金属的生物毒性角度出发，反映了多种污染物的综合影响，但该评价方法没有考虑环境条件对元素地球化学分布的影响。因此，在进行近岸海域沉积环境重金属生态风险评价时，采用多种方法相结合的综合评价是解决实际问题的有效途径。     

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites Part 3: Spatial decision support system

Large scale (e.g. regional or national) assessments of contaminated sites may be very costly in terms of investigation and methodological (i.e. risk assessment procedures) requirements and may produce a quantity of information that usually discourages examination by decision-makers. Moreover, most of the existing tools effectively support local environmental risk assessment and management, but lack the capabilities of larger scale analysis, not mentioning the absence of the relevant component of socio-economic prioritization. To respond to the concerns and the management needs of experts and decision makers, the Spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of Degraded land (SYRIADE DSS) was developed and is presented according to its three modules: Regional Risk Assessment, Socio-economic Assessment and Integrated Assessment, respectively. The system allows to rank potentially contaminated sites for priority of investigation, when no information on characterization and risk by site specific methodologies is available. This GIS-based system embeds an innovative spatial and relative risk assessment procedure, and proposes the integrated analysis of different data (environmental and socio-economic) for the concerned sites, eliciting when necessary experts' knowledge and stakeholders' values (through Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, MCDA, methodologies). The application to a Polish case-study shows the performance and the flexibility of the system in investigating and mapping (potentially) contaminated sites at the regional scale.     

Approaches for describing and communicating overall uncertainty in toxicity characterizations: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) as a case study

Single point estimates of human health hazard/toxicity values such as a reference dose (RfD) are generally used in chemical hazard and risk assessment programs for assessing potential risks associated with site- or use-specific exposures. The resulting point estimates are often used by risk managers for regulatory decision-making, including standard setting, determination of emission controls, and mitigation of exposures to chemical substances. Risk managers, as well as stakeholders (interested and affected parties), often have limited information regarding assumptions and uncertainty factors in numerical estimates of both hazards and risks. Further, the use of different approaches for addressing uncertainty, which vary in transparency, can lead to a lack of confidence in the scientific underpinning of regulatory decision-making. The overarching goal of this paper, which was developed from an invited participant workshop, is to offer five approaches for presenting toxicity values in a transparent manner in order to improve the understanding, consideration, and informed use of uncertainty by risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. The five approaches for improving the presentation and communication of uncertainty are described using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) as a case study. These approaches will ensure transparency in the documentation, development, and use of toxicity values at EPA, the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), and other similar assessment programs in the public and private sector. Further empirical testing will help to inform the approaches that will work best for specific audiences and situations.     

Ways of improving the management of environmental risks

From the public's discovery of environmental quality in the late 1960s to the present, there has been increasing recognition that a more systematic approach is required to manage risks and to achieve the gains at low cost. Such a systematic approach must begin with risk identification, then go on to risk assessment, consideration of management options, a decision analysis of the options, and an examination of strategies for reducing loss. One of the most difficult aspects of environmental risk management is setting goals. There is a tendency to engage in rhetoric about zero risks and a pristine environment. However, moving toward more realistic goals requires consideration of what is an acceptable risk level. This level cannot be defined without knowing the benefits that come with the risk and the costs of reducing the risk. More generally, the criteria for selecting a risk management strategy include the residual level of risk, efficiency in reducing risk, equity, administrative simplicity, and public acceptability. A number of frameworks are currently used by U.S. regulatory agencies to manage risk: no-risk, risk-risk, technology-based standards, risk-benefit, cost-effectiveness, regulatory budget, and benefit-cost analysis. In specifying that an agency must use one of these frameworks, the U.S. Congress is implicitly specifying the goals for risk reduction. It appears to be easier for the U.S. Congress to specify a framework than a goal. Some of the nonregulatory means of managing risk include the market, and legal mechanisms. These risk management institutions have been effective and are a necessary part of any risk management program.     

Chemical plant risk assessment: Uncertainties and development needs

A brief review is given covering the development of major hazards risk assessment since the Flixborough disaster of 1974, with special reference to the introduction of new regulations. The importance of risk assessment in the management of major hazards is discussed by reference to the Canvey Island studies, and it is suggested that the problem of uncertainties in the estimation of risks by analysis has not been adequately treated. Examples are given to illustrate the magnitude of such uncertainties in the consequence modelling of accidental releases from a chemical plant. In addition to suggested development needs in risk analysis techniques, topics are suggested which call for development in the evaluation and management of risks.     

煤炭企业跨区域扩张模式研究

跨区域扩张是煤炭企业可持续发展的必要方式.地域差异性使得扩张过程中面临很大的风险,因此企业应慎重选择扩张模式.本文根据来源将风险因素归结为外部风险和内部风险,指出外部风险属于不可控制因素,企业只能采取有效措施去应对.在此基础上,结合世界范围内的企业兼并浪潮和社会资本、战略联盟的相关研究成果,将煤炭企业跨区域扩张模式划分为独资新建、股权型扩张和契约型扩张三种类型.结合风险因素,分析了各种模式的优缺点,认为股权型扩张有利于谋求社会资本、契约型扩张较为灵活有利于应对复杂多变的环境,从而有助于规避扩张过程中的外部风险,是较为合适的扩张模式.着重归纳了契约型扩张和股权型扩张的实现方式,其中契约型扩张可以通过合同开采、承包租赁、托管等方式实现,股权型扩张可以通过合资和并购等方式实现.以兖矿集团为例介绍了其通过兼并重组、股份合作等股权型扩张实现跨区域发展的历程.     

Sea-Level Rise Risk Communication: Public Understanding,Risk Perception,and Attitudes about Information

We present the results of a study using a document-based evaluation method to better understand how residents in vulnerable coastal areas respond to risk communications about sea-level rise (SLR) and to determine whether communications localized for specific populations improve reception. Similar to climate change communication, SLR risk communication presents challenges involving complex science, uncertainty, invisibility, and politicization. To be comprehensible and persuasive, risk messages must be appropriately framed and visually compelling and must take into account risk perceptions and diverse viewpoints. Our approach involves assessing people's encounters with actual risk messages to determine their reactions and responses. Participants in this study had difficulty understanding information and expressed attitudes including fear, fatalism, skepticism, and loss. SLR risks were also perceived as both temporally and spatially distant, creating a challenge for communicators trying to convey a sense of urgency. We conclude by considering the implications of audience-focused research for SLR risk communication.     

Local air quality management as a risk management process: assessing, managing and remediating the risk of exceeding an air quality objective in Great Britain

Air quality is managed in Great Britain via an effects-based, risk management process designed to provide a dynamic solution to public health issues associated with elevated concentrations of seven specified air pollutants. This paper is concerned with an examination and evaluation of the process of Local Air Quality Management (LAQM) in Great Britain from the late 1980s to date as a risk management process. The statutory basis of LAQM process is provided by the Environment Act 1995. The Act provides a framework in which national and local actions are required to identify and remediate areas of poor air quality. Within this framework, the implementation of the process at national and local levels is considered, leading to an identification and assessment of risks in the formulation and implementation of air quality management policy and practice. Local Authorities began the process of Review and Assessment in 1999 and the first round of the process concluded in 2001. Following this, some 129 Local Authorities declared one or more Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs). The Review and Assessment elements of the framework were subjected to an evaluation in 2001 and the essential elements of it were confirmed as fit for purpose. The evaluation led to a confirmation of the process of LAQM but also a simplification based on the experience of Round 1. Now, a two step process is required comprising of an Updating and Screening Assessment and, where a risk of exceeding an Air Quality Objective (AQO) is identified, a Detailed Assessment follows. The Government has identified a time scale for Review and Assessment through to 2010 and also introduced the requirement of a regular Progress Report in order that a Local Authority is able to address routine matters of air quality management. The risks inherent in epidemiological or scientific uncertainty are factored into the LAQM process at an early stage of the process and, by identifying the risks and subjecting them to regular review, the process provides a 'level playing field' across spatial and temporal scales. Whilst the process of LAQM described in this paper has been developed for Great Britain, the generic elements of the process are applicable to other countries challenged by air pollution problems which require both national and local action to resolve them.     

Risk communication and sustainability science: lessons from the field

Sustainability science aims to help societies across the globe address the increased environmental and health crises and risks that range from poverty to climate change to health pandemics. With the increased magnitude and frequency of these large-scale risks to different societies, scientists and institutions have increasingly recognized the need for improved communication and collaboration among researchers, governments, businesses, and communities. This article argues that risk communication has fundamentally important contributions to make to sustainability science’s mission to create use-inspired, “actionable science” that can lead to solutions. Risk communication research can advance the mission of sustainability science to engage a wide range of stakeholders. This kind of engagement is especially important in the context of addressing sustainability problems that are characterized by high levels of uncertainty and complexity. We introduce three core tenets of risk communication research that are fundamental to advancing sustainability science. Risk communication specifically offers an increased understanding of how system feedbacks, human perceptions, and levels of uncertainty influence the study and design of solutions within social ecological systems.     

Coastal hazard risk assessment for small islands: assessing the impact of climate change and disaster reduction measures on Ebeye (Marshall Islands)

Small island states around the world are among the areas most vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. In this paper, we present results from an innovative methodology for a quantitative assessment of multiple hazards on coastal risks, driven by different hydro-meteorological events, and including the effects of climate change. Moreover, we take an additional step by including in the methodology the option to assess and compare the effectiveness of possible disaster risk reduction measures. The methodology is applied to a real case study at the island of Ebeye (the Republic of the Marshall Islands). An example is provided in which a rock revetment is implemented as a risk reduction measure for the island. Results show that yearly expected damages may increase, by the end of the century, by a factor of three to four, depending on the sea level rise scenario considered, while the number of yearly affected people may double. Putting a cap on the temperature increase (e.g. 1.5 vs. 2 °C) according to the Paris Agreement may reduce damages and number of affected people by about 20 and 15%, respectively. However, impacts for same warming levels can vary substantially among different emission scenarios. Disaster risk reduction measures can be useful for mitigating risks in current and future situations but should be incorporated within long-term adaptive planning for these islands.     

资本下乡过程中农地流转风险识别、形成机理与管控策略

资本下乡介入农地流转可以实现农村地区人、地、资本的协调发展，但同时也可能引发复杂多样的风险问题，已经成为农村经济社会转型的两难选择。为此，运用归纳演绎法和风险系统分析法，系统剖析了资本下乡过程中农地流转风险及其形成机理。研究结果表明：资本下乡过程中农户农地流转风险可以分为土地权益风险、社会保障风险和土地利用风险3个方面；风险受体为农户、社会经济子系统和土地生态子系统；风险源存在流转阶段差异，约定阶段风险源包括产权边界不清、制度规则模糊、信息不对称、激励政策不合理、政策执行主体能力偏低和准入机制缺失，执行阶段风险源为监管机制缺失和配套措施不完善；各类风险源通过“聚合反应”释放“产权公共领域”、“行为空间”、“合谋”、“选择行为”及“负外部性”等逆境胁迫因子作用于风险受体，引发各类流转风险。因此，通过一系列措施避免产权处于“公共领域”、缩小强势集团“行为空间”、防止权力与资本走向“合谋”、防范利益集团“选择行为”、降低流转“负外部性”可以有效管控资本下乡介入农地流转过程中的各类风险。研究成果可以为引导农地有序流转、保护农民合法权益、促进农村经济社会转型提供参考。 关键词： 资本下乡；农地流转风险；风险管理     

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites Part 2: Ranking of potentially contaminated sites

Environmental risks are traditionally assessed and presented in non spatial ways although the heterogeneity of the contaminants spatial distributions, the spatial positions and relations between receptors and stressors, as well as the spatial distribution of the variables involved in the risk assessment, strongly influence exposure estimations and hence risks. Taking into account spatial variability is increasingly being recognized as a further and essential step in sound exposure and risk assessment. To address this issue an innovative methodology which integrates spatial analysis and a relative risk approach was developed. The purpose of this methodology is to prioritize sites at regional scale where a preliminary site investigation may be required. The methodology aimed at supporting the inventory of contaminated sites was implemented within the spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of DEgraded land, SYRIADE, and was applied to the case-study of the Upper Silesia region (Poland).The developed methodology and tool are both flexible and easy to adapt to different regional contexts, allowing the user to introduce the regional relevant parameters identified on the basis of user expertise and regional data availability. Moreover, the used GIS functionalities, integrated with mathematical approaches, allow to take into consideration, all at once, the multiplicity of sources and impacted receptors within the region of concern, to assess the risks posed by all contaminated sites in the region and, finally, to provide a risk-based ranking of the potentially contaminated sites.     

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 2: ranking of potentially contaminated sites

Environmental risks are traditionally assessed and presented in non spatial ways although the heterogeneity of the contaminants spatial distributions, the spatial positions and relations between receptors and stressors, as well as the spatial distribution of the variables involved in the risk assessment, strongly influence exposure estimations and hence risks. Taking into account spatial variability is increasingly being recognized as a further and essential step in sound exposure and risk assessment. To address this issue an innovative methodology which integrates spatial analysis and a relative risk approach was developed. The purpose of this methodology is to prioritize sites at regional scale where a preliminary site investigation may be required. The methodology aimed at supporting the inventory of contaminated sites was implemented within the spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of DEgraded land, SYRIADE, and was applied to the case-study of the Upper Silesia region (Poland). The developed methodology and tool are both flexible and easy to adapt to different regional contexts, allowing the user to introduce the regional relevant parameters identified on the basis of user expertise and regional data availability. Moreover, the used GIS functionalities, integrated with mathematical approaches, allow to take into consideration, all at once, the multiplicity of sources and impacted receptors within the region of concern, to assess the risks posed by all contaminated sites in the region and, finally, to provide a risk-based ranking of the potentially contaminated sites.     

Analysis of the individual health benefits accruing from a domestic radon remediation programme

Although radon can be present within buildings at sufficient levels to pose a health risk, levels can be reduced relatively easily. Recent studies on a group of radon-remediated homes, based on assessment of collective population-average risk coefficients, have estimated the benefits and cost effectiveness accruing from remediation and have confirmed that domestic remediation in UK radon Affected Areas would result in significantly reduced cancer risks to the population in those areas. Although the population-average approach used hitherto has applied occupancy and lung-cancer risk factors, these are potentially misleading in assessing discrete populations. The study reported here uses the recently developed European Community Radon Software (ECRS) to quantify individual risks in a sample of householders who remediated their homes following indications that radon levels exceeded the action level. The study proceeds from population-averaged to 'individual risk' evaluation, successfully comparing individual and collective risk assessments, and demonstrates that those who remediate are not representative of the general population. Health benefits accruing from remediation are three times lower than expected, largely because remediators are older, live in smaller households, and smoke less than the population average, leading to the conclusion that the current strategy employed in the UK is failing to target those most at risk.     

A systemic health risk assessment for the chromium cycle in Taiwan

Health risk assessment (HRA) has been recognized as a useful tool for identifying health risks of human activities. In particular, this method has been well applied to spatially defined units, such as a production plant, a treatment facility, and a contaminated site. However, the management strategies based on the risk information will be more efficient if the comprehensive picture of total risks from all kinds of sources is depicted. In principle, the total risks can be obtained when all risk sources are assessed individually. Apparently, this approach demands huge amount of efforts. This study develops a methodology that combines substance flow and risk estimation to facilitate examination of risk in a systemic way and provide comprehensive understanding of risk generation and distribution corresponding to flows of substances in the anthroposphere and the environment. Substance flow analysis (SFA) and HRA method is integrated to produce a systemic risk assessment method, from which substance management schemes can be derived. In this study, the chromium cycle in Taiwan is used as an example to demonstrate the method, by which the associated substance flow in the economy and the risk caused by the substance in the environmental system is determined. The concentrations of pollutants in the environmental media, the resultant risks and hazard quotients are calculated with the widely-used CalTOX multimedia model.     

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.     

Probabilistic risk assessment's use of trees and distributions to reflect uncertainty and variability and to overcome the limitations of default assumptions

Probabilistic risk assessment is an emerging approach to exposure assessment and quantitative cancer and non-cancer risk characterizations. The approach is easily extended to other types of risks and outcomes. A tree, like a decision tree or probability tree, encourages the evaluation of not only the default assumptions but also alternatives to those defaults, and reflects the uncertainty in the current state of knowledge. Trees are used in both the characterization of the dose received by individuals in a potential exposure situation and the characterization of the dose-response relationship for a specified response of concern. Probability distributions are used to reflect the variability in exposure, dose, and dose-response relationships among individuals and over time within individuals. Distributions incorporating variabilities, uncertainties, subjective probabilities, and expert judgments are used to characterize the probabilities of observing an individual in a population with a specified dose from exposure, with a specified probability of a certain adverse health effect for a designated dose, and with a specified probability of a certain adverse health effect (i.e., a specified risk). Some suggestions are given on how a risk manager can incorporate a distributional risk characterization into decision making. Some discussion is included concerning sensitivity analyses and path analyses. The major finding is methodology to explicitly incorporate variability, uncertainty, and alternatives to defaults into exposure, dose-response, and risk characterizations.