基于Markov-CLUES耦合模型的杭州湾湿地多情景模拟研究

杭州湾湿地是中国南北湿地的分界线,也是环杭州湾地区重要的区域生态安全屏障。由于全球气候变化和当地经济发展,杭州湾湿地资源锐减,湿地生态功能退化。因此,对杭州湾湿地未来发展趋势的模拟预测,可为资源合理开发、政府政策规划等提供科学依据。以杭州湾湿地为研究对象,利用2006年、2011年、2016年3期遥感影像提取湿地空间分布信息,对杭州湾湿地现状进行分析;构建Markov-CLUES耦合模型,运用耦合模型模拟了多情景下的杭州湾湿地未来演变趋势。研究结果表明,(1)杭州湾滨海湿地主要历史演变特征为:海岸带区域不断向浅海水域方向延伸;淤泥质海滩受到来自内陆方向的围垦;处于极不稳定状态;稻田类型极易转变为建筑等非湿地类型;非湿地面积呈不断上升趋势。(2)以2011年的湿地空间分布格局图为模拟年份初始图,运用Markov-CLUES耦合模型模拟了2016年的湿地空间分布格局模拟图,并以2016年的实际湿地分布现状图进行验证,结果表明,Markov-CLUES耦合模型的总体精度为86%,Kappa系数为0.81,说明Markov-CLUES耦合模型可用于模拟杭州湾湿地演变趋势。(3)通过对杭州湾湿地未来多情景模拟结果分析发现:淤泥质海滩在经济增长情境下围垦速率加快,与自然情景相比,面积下降速率增加3.46%;在滩涂资源保护情境下,面积几乎不变,得到了有效保护。稻田是除浅海水域外的主要湿地类型,在经济建设情景下,稻田向非湿地的转变速率增加5.31%,稻田面积下降;在粮食安全情景下,面积增加了3 470.76 hm~2,在数量上和空间分布上都得到了良好的保护。非湿地在稻田保护的情景下,由于来源的减少,面积增长受到抑制;在其他3个情景下均呈上升趋势;在经济建设的情景下,非湿地增加速度最快。     

滨海湿地类自然保护区的成本效益研究——以江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区为例

以江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区为例,分析了滨海湿地生态系统所提供的生态系统服务及保护该系统所产生的成本。采用市场价值法、影子工程法和专家评估法估算了保护区内滨海湿地生态系统服务价值。2010年盐城保护区内滨海湿地生态系统产生的保护成本为8.18×109元,其中管理成本为1.95×107元,机会成本为8.16×109元;保护区产生的效益为1.83×1010元。结果表明,盐城保护区获得的效益远大于其付出的成本,盐城保护区的存在具有经济学上的收益优势。因此,在盐城滨海湿地建立自然保护区具有巨大的生态效益,这种优势更多地体现为长期的综合效益,且难以用货币形式直接兑现。对待自然保护区建设与管理应形成整体、长期的理念,不能因短期利益和局部利益而牺牲自然保护区,真正做到对保护区的永久保护和持续利用。     

滨海湿地类自然保护区的成本-效益研究——以江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区为例

以江苏盐城湿地珍禽国家级自然保护区为例,分析了滨海湿地生态系统所提供的生态系统服务及保护该系统所产生的成本.采用市场价值法、影子工程法和专家评估法估算了保护区内滨海湿地生态系统服务价值.2010年盐城保护区内滨海湿地生态系统产生的保护成本为8.18× 109元,其中管理成本为1.95× 107元,机会成本为8.16× 109元;保护区产生的效益为1.83× 1010元.结果表明,盐城保护区获得的效益远大于其付出的成本,盐城保护区的存在具有经济学上的收益优势.因此,在盐城滨海湿地建立自然保护区具有巨大的生态效益,这种优势更多地体现为长期的综合效益,且难以用货币形式直接兑现.对待自然保护区建设与管理应形成整体、长期的理念,不能因短期利益和局部利益而牺牲自然保护区,真正做到对保护区的永久保护和持续利用.     

广东丰溪省级自然保护区景观格局变化及其驱动力研究

探究景观格局变化及其驱动力是自然保护区景观格局优化、生态保护和建设管理的重要基础。基于广东省丰溪省级保护区2010、2015、2020年的遥感影像数据,借助Arc GIS、ENVI和FRAGSTATS等软件,通过分析动态度、转移矩阵、景观格局指数等探究景观格局的演变规律,并对其驱动力进行探讨。结果表明,1)保护区土地利用类型以林地为主,约占区域总面积的61.9%;2010-2020年间,林地和水域持续减少,耕地和建设用地持续增多,土地利用综合动态度由1.87%减少至1.75%,整体呈减少趋势,景观格局变化趋于平稳。保护区林地的转出量最大,转出面积有2.03×10³ hm²;草地的转入量最大,转入面积有1.28×10³ hm²;耕地的转入面积约为转出面积的3.3倍,整体增加约800 hm²。2)林地是保护区的主体景观,其斑块优势度最大,破碎度最小,景观连通性较好。2010-2020年间,耕地、建筑用地和水域的破碎度降低,连通度升高;草地的破碎度最大,连通性能减低。2020年,景观...     

基于MAXENT模型的丹顶鹤越冬生境变化分析:以盐城保护区为例

盐城保护区是全球野生丹顶鹤(Grus japonensis)迁徙种群主要的越冬栖息地之一。近年来,丹顶鹤越冬生境变化显著。应用MAXENT模型,结合丹顶鹤野外调查数据和主要环境特征变量,对2000—2013年盐城保护区丹顶鹤越冬生境变化和主要原因进行分析。模型分析结果表明,到道路距离、到养殖塘距离和到米草滩距离,以及到芦苇滩距离和到碱蓬滩距离分别是2000和2013年影响丹顶鹤分布的主要环境因子。2000—2013年期间,盐城保护区内丹顶鹤适宜生境面积持续减少,由94 571 hm2减少为22 365 hm2;适宜生境破碎化程度不断加剧,分布格局由连续分布变为集中分布在核心区周围区域。丹顶鹤适宜生境丧失与保护区内碱蓬滩、泥滩、盐田面积大幅减少,养殖塘面积大幅增加有关。建议保护区在丹顶鹤越冬生境保护中做好以下工作:(1)加强核心区湿地生境保护和恢复;(2)加强实验区和缓冲区人工湿地管护;(3)加强对保护区内人为干扰活动的监督和管理。     

佛手在川渝地区的生态适宜性及潜在分布

基于实地调查、文献查阅获取的佛手分布点位数据,利用MaxEnt软件分析影响佛手分布的关键环境因子,构建川渝地区潜在种植分布预估模型,并结合CMIP6推出的未来3种气候情景数据,预估2050s(2041-2060年)和2090s(2081-2100年)川渝地区的适生区域,旨在为野生资源调查保护、生态修复及人工生产培育和产业发展等方面提供科学参考.结果表明：(1)年温度范围(Bio7)、年降水量(Bio12)、人类足迹(Hf)、海拔(El)和季节性降水变异系数(Bio15)是影响佛手分布的主要环境因子.(2)当前(2000-2020年)气候情景,佛手在渝地区的高适生区面积为9.45×104km²,主要分布在除四川盆地北部外的其他底部区域,地形以海拔低于500 m的平原、丘陵及平行岭谷区的低丘与平坝为主,另外川西南山地的河谷平原及低山亦有零散分布;中适生面积为9.93×104km²,主要分布在四川盆地西北部、重庆东部及攀西高原,沿着高适生区的边缘向外扩展,地形以海拔500-1 000 m的低山区为主.(3)SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP...     

基于DNDC模型评估水位变化对滨海湿地净生态系统CO2交换的影响

水位是影响滨海湿地生态系统蓝碳功能的重要因素。气候变化引起的海平面上升以及极端气候事件的频发,可能加快水位的变化,从而改变生态系统碳交换的过程。然而,滨海湿地碳汇功能响应水位变化的机制尚不清楚。为了评估水位对滨海湿地净生态系统CO₂交换(NEE)特征的影响,以及验证DNDC(denitrification-decomposition)模型对模拟预测滨海湿地生态系统碳交换的适用性,该研究设计了野外水位控制试验(自然水位,地下20 cm水位、地表10 cm水位),并利用DNDC模型模拟和预测水位变化对滨海湿地NEE的影响。结果表明:(1)不同水位处理之间NEE差异显著,地表10 cm水位处理促进CO₂吸收,地下20 cm水位则抑制CO₂吸收;(2)经过校准和验证的DNDC模型可以准确模拟水位变化对黄河三角洲湿地NEE的影响,NEE模拟值的日动态与田间观测结果显著相关(R²>0.6);(3)通过改变气候、土壤和田间管理等输入参数对DNDC模型进行灵敏度检验,生态系统碳交换过程对日均温、降雨和水位改变的响应最为显著,其中,水位对NEE的影响主要作用于土壤呼吸(Rs)。未来气候情境下,不同水位变化下的生态系统碳交换过程随年份增长呈现不同的规律,因此未来的模拟研究应关注DNDC中水文模块和植被演替过程的完善。该研究可为预测水文变化情境下滨海湿地碳汇功能的未来发展以及政策制定提供参考。     

鸭绿江口滨海湿地自然保护区的生物多样性及保护区发展研究

论述了鸭绿江口滨海湿地自然保护区的生物多样性现状与分布特点，分析了该区生物多样性保护的价值与意义，并根据保护区的实际情况，就功能区的划分、资源保护与管理、科学研究、资源的适度开发利用等具体方面，对保护区今后的发展提出了合理的建议     

鸭绿江口滨海湿地自然保护区的生物多样性及保护区发展研究

论述了鸭绿江口滨海湿地自然保护区的生物多样性现状与分布特点，分析了该区生物多样性保护的价值与意义，并根据保护区的实际情况，就功能区的划分，资源保护与管理，科学研究，资源的适度开发利用等具体方面，对保护区今后的发展提出了合理的建议。     

保护地空间邻近效应和保护成效评估——以若尔盖湿地国家级自然保护区为例

目前多采用比较保护地建立前后时间序列上或与邻近区域比较的方法判断保护地的保护成效,而未充分考虑保护地的空间邻近效应和空间异质性,因此影响了其准确性.为进一步改进自然保护地保护成效评估技术方法,识别辨析人为保护管理措施在高寒草地-沼泽湿地区域气候变化背景下的景观生态学效应,以四川若尔盖湿地国家级自然保护区为案例,采用"BACI"试验设计思路,以斑块密度、最大斑块指数和蔓延度指数等景观格局指数等为指标,定量分析若尔盖保护区的空间邻近效应和保护成效.结果显示:(1)保护区内湿地面积呈缩减趋势,灌丛、草地和建设用地面积增加,但沙化地面积减少;(2)若尔盖保护区存在空间邻近效应,为泄漏效应;(3)若尔盖湿地整体上仍呈破碎化趋势,但若尔盖自然保护区内大斑块面积减少趋势得到延缓,斑块间连通性降低趋势减小.本研究表明保护区的保护管理减缓了边界范围内景观破碎化趋势,取得保护成效;建议在进一步加强保护区内人为活动管控的同时,强化邻近区域的保护,以消除正在出现的孤岛化现象.(图4表4参35)     

Examining the potential impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands in north-eastern NSW,Australia

The coastal wetlands of north-eastern New South Wales (NSW) Australia are increasingly being affected by anthropogenic factors such as urbanisation, residential development and agricultural development. However, little is known about their vulnerability to sea level rise as a result of climate change. The aim of this research is to predict the potential impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the coastal wetland communities. Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was used to predict the potential impacts of sea level rise. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for mapping and analysis. It was found that a meter rise in sea level could decrease coastal wetlands such as Inland fresh marshes from about 225.67 km² in February 2009 to about 168.04 km² by the end of the century in north-eastern NSW, Australia. The outcomes from this research can contribute to enhancing wetland conservation and management in NSW.     

Integrated ecological assessment as the basis for management of a coastal urban protected area: A case study of Xiamen,China

In the process of rapid urbanisation in China, environmental problems have increased, from sewage discharge to climate change. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely advocated as a means to comprehensively manage human activities and resources in ocean and coastal areas. However, MPAs only safeguard populations or assemblages within their boundaries and fail to offer any protection from many major threats to marine environments. An increase in environmental threats implies an increase in environmental management and assessment. We propose a methodological framework for integrated ecological assessment using the Xiamen marine protected area as a case study. The integrated ecological assessment framework can be generalised from the dimensions of environment, economy, society and institution. Surveys were undertaken to assess the state of the Xiamen coastal environment, the resources of the reserve, and issues associated with human activities. Stakeholders were interviewed about their attitudes towards issues regarding the management of the reserve. The constraints of the reserve management were identified. The methodological framework is presented as a tool to help identify relative ecological security in order to prioritise actions and assess the ecological implications of management and policy decisions.     

Greenhouse gas fluxes in southeastern U.S. coastal plain wetlands under contrasting land uses

Whether through sea level rise or wetland restoration, agricultural soils in coastal areas will be inundated at increasing rates, renewing connections to sensitive surface waters and raising critical questions about environmental trade-offs. Wetland restoration is often implemented in agricultural catchments to improve water quality through nutrient removal. Yet flooding of soils can also increase production of the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane, representing a potential environmental trade-off. Our study aimed to quantify and compare greenhouse gas emissions from unmanaged and restored forested wetlands, as well as actively managed agricultural fields within the North Carolina coastal plain, USA. In sampling conducted once every two months over a two-year comparative study, we found that soil carbon dioxide flux (range: 8000-64 800 kg CO2 x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) comprised 66-100% of total greenhouse gas emissions from all sites and that methane emissions (range: -6.87 to 197 kg CH4 x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) were highest from permanently inundated sites, while nitrous oxide fluxes (range: -1.07 to 139 kg N2O x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) were highest in sites with lower water tables. Contrary to predictions, greenhouse gas fluxes (as CO2 equivalents) from the restored wetland were lower than from either agricultural fields or unmanaged forested wetlands. In these acidic coastal freshwater ecosystems, the conversion of agricultural fields to flooded young forested wetlands did not result in increases in greenhouse gas emissions.     

海平面上升对生态环境及其服务功能的影响

近50年来，海平面持续上升对我国沿海地区的影响日渐明显。综合分析了我国海平面上升的现状及其发展变化趋势，对未来海平面上升对沿海地区生态环境及其服务功能可能造成的影响作了分析。最后提出了对策建议，为政府部门采取措施提供科学依据。     

Partitioning vegetation response to anthropogenic stress to develop multi-taxa wetland indicators.

Emergent plants can be suitable indicators of anthropogenic stress in coastal wetlands if their responses to natural environmental variation can be parsed from their responses to human activities in and around wetlands. We used hierarchical partitioning to evaluate the independent influence of geomorphology, geography, and anthropogenic stress on common wetland plants of the U.S. Great Lakes coast and developed multi-taxa models indicating wetland condition. A seven-taxon model predicted condition relative to watershed-derived anthropogenic stress, and a four-taxon model predicted condition relative to within-wetland anthropogenic stressors that modified hydrology. The Great Lake on which the wetlands occurred explained an average of about half the variation in species cover, and subdividing the data by lake allowed us to remove that source of variation. We developed lake-specific multi-taxa models for all of the Great Lakes except Lake Ontario, which had no plant species with significant independent effects of anthropogenic stress. Plant responses were both positive (increasing cover with stress) and negative (decreasing cover with stress), and plant taxa incorporated into the lake-specific models differed by Great Lake. The resulting models require information on only a few taxa, rather than all plant species within a wetland, making them easier to implement than existing indicators.     

The impact of sea-level rise along the Polish Baltic coast

A DTM (Digital Terrain Model) map and the analytical powers of GIS (Geographical Information System) were used in deterministic and probabilistic methods for analysis of inundation of a coastal area. These methods were applied to evaluate the effects of a rise in sea-level on the coastal zone of the Puck Lagoon (Poland) over a period of 100 years. The analysis evaluated the following aspects: the threat to man-made objects such as buildings and roads; changes in the impact of the sea on the coastal environment manifested as the frequency of flooding of grasslands and marshland in the coastal depression, and the formation of a dune embankment. The analysis covered a ca. 5 km stretch of low-lying coastline, in which there are two rapidly growing villages and a nature reserve. The study showed that a sealevel rise of 40 cm would increase the frequency of flooding in the area and would probably cause the dune ridge vegetation to deteriorate.     

As the world warms: rising seas, coastal archaeology, and the erosion of maritime history

The human history of coastal regions around the world has been under assault for decades, from forces that include dam building, coastal modifications, the destruction of wetlands, marine erosion, population growth and rampant development, looting, and other processes. Global warming will exacerbate the destruction of cultural resources in coastal zones through accelerated sea level rise, intensified storm cycles, and related coastal erosion. Although average global sea levels have been rising for ∼20,000 years, they slowed dramatically about 7,000 years ago. Rates of sea level rise now appear to be increasing rapidly due to growing anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Global warming and rising seas, especially when combined with population growth and the implementation of measures designed to protect endangered coastal properties, threaten the deep maritime history of human migrations, settlement, and adaptations in coastal areas around the world. Ranging in age from the mid-Pleistocene to recent historic times, coastal archaeological sites contain invaluable data on ancient coastal societies, fisheries, and ecosystems. Archaeologists, historians, and other cultural resource managers must do more to anticipate, evaluate, and mitigate the effects of global warming, sea level rise, and coastal erosion on the long history of human maritime cultures.     

Predicting the Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Caribbean Sea Turtle Nesting Habitat

Abstract:  The projected rise in sea level is likely to increase the vulnerability of coastal zones in the Caribbean, which are already under pressure from a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes. One of the major effects will be a loss of beach habitat, which provides nesting sites for endangered sea turtles. To assess the potential impacts of sea-level rise on sea turtle nesting habitat, we used beach profile measurements of turtle nesting beaches on Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles, to develop elevation models of individual beaches in a geographic information system. These models were then used to quantify areas of beach vulnerable to three different scenarios of a rise in sea level. Physical characteristics of the beaches were also recorded and related to beach vulnerability, flooding, and nesting frequency. Beaches varied in physical characteristics and therefore in their vulnerability to flooding. Up to 32% of the total current beach area could be lost with a 0.5-m rise in sea level, with lower, narrower beaches being the most vulnerable. Vulnerability varied with land use adjacent to the beach. These predictions about loss of nesting habitat have important implications for turtle populations in the region.     

Possible impact of sea-level rise on some habitat types at the Baltic coast of Denmark

According to estimates from the Danish Meteorological Institute global warming until 2080 may cause a relative sea-level rise in Danish waters of 33–46 cm. In the present paper the possible impact of a sea-level rise of this magnitude on coastal habitat types is discussed for three case studies, based on previous investigations of vegetation, topography and soil of localities at the Baltic coast of Denmark. The case studies include the following types of localities and habitats: (1) an off-shore barrier complex: sandy beach, sand dune, geolittoral, brackish, low-tidal meadow, reed bed; (2) a protected bay: geolittoral, brackish meadow, coastal grassland; (3) a dune area: mobile and fixed dune communities, and adjoining sea wall: coastal grassland. In the geolittoral meadow and coastal grassland habitats the sea-level rise is expected to cause a horizontal displacement of vegetation zones and a reduction in area, depending on accretion rate (sedimentation, peat formation), local topography and inland land-use. In the beach and sand dune habitats the sea-level rise is expected to cause a change in groundwater level, influencing slack vegetation, and a change in the erosion/accretion pattern, resulting in landward rebuilding of the mobile dune as well as in a more or less diffuse inland sand drift, causing destabilization of fixed dune vegetation.