The effect of modelling expert knowledge and uncertainty on multicriteria decision making: a river management case study

To support decision making on complex environmental issues, models are often used to explore the potential impacts of different management alternatives on the environmental system. We explored how different model outcomes affect decision making. Two topics have our particular interest, namely (1) the influence of quantification of qualitative information on decision making, and (2) the influence of reflecting uncertainty in the model outcomes on decision making. We set up a survey, in which we use a case study describing a decision making situation in strategic river management. The survey was disseminated through the Internet. From the results we conclude that the quantification of information in itself does not necessarily change preferences, although the outcomes suggest that preferences converge when based on quantified information. When confronted with uncertainty information, respondents show a preference for the alternative with the smallest chance of negative impacts. The study shows that, whereas the modelling community often strives to provide the policy process with as good, and as detailed information as is possible, their assumption that this will automatically lead to ‘better’ decision making is not self-evident.     

EKC analysis for studying economic growth and environmental quality: a case study in China

Compared with the extensive research on the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in developed countries, there is a paucity of an empirical research on studying the relation for developing countries. Based upon the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, this paper develops regression models for investigating the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in China. The EKC analysis based on six pollution indices is illustrated with a case study in Jiaxing of Zhejiang, China.     

Estuarine surface water allocation: A case study on the interactive role of science in support of management

The inevitable need for freshwater to support the projected population growth along the ocean coast is an emerging issue of potential consequence to adjacent estuaries. A large and controversial water withdrawal/reservoir project in Virginia's coastal plain was the basis of science–management interactions that quantified the vulnerability of tidal freshwater nekton for a series of water withdrawal scenarios. Through progressive iterations of the regulatory review process, which in Virginia includes academic reviews of all aspects of projects proposed to affect the marine and estuarine environment, we developed a novel approach to modeling entrainment probabilities applicable to situations that lack a locally validated hydrodynamic model. The science/management interplay ultimately resulted in surface water allocation strategies that are balances to society and the affected natural environment. Model results showed that the probability of encounter (contact between an egg or larva and one or more units of the intake array) ranged from 1.71% under the conditions of a high river flow and low withdrawal rate to 99.99% under the conditions of a low river flow and high withdrawal rate. The collective body of scientific information was incorporated into regulatory conditions placed on water withdrawals that are designed to protect at least 95% of early life history stages within the intake array's zone of influence.     

The role of environmental statisticians in environmental policy: the case of performance measurement

Environmental statisticians often experience the difficult task to provide clear results for environmental policy objectives on the basis of complex science, limited data, and many sources of uncertainty. This paper highlights the particularly challenging situation of environmental statistics in developing countries before focusing on the role of statisticians working at the nexus of environmental statistics and policy within the context of measuring environmental performance. Three issues create particular tension at the environmental science-policy junction: (1) the general complexity of environmental problems (including scientific uncertainty and insufficient data) and the often negative perceptions associated with their solution, (2) the comparatively recent introduction of quantitative methods and information to the environmental policy process and continued skepticism and ideologically motivated resistance to their routine integration, and (3) the language barriers between policymakers and statisticians as well as between statisticians and other scientists engaged in environmental research. Based on the case study of the 2006 Pilot Environmental Performance Index (EPI) developed by an interdisciplinary team at the universities Yale and Columbia the paper examines how the EPI tackles these tensions while aiming to be a fact-based, statistically sound policy tool that helps countries achieve environmental objectives by tracking progress, identifying environmental “best practices”, and providing strategic peer-group analyses. In conclusion, the paper suggests some remedies for the deficiencies in the co-operation between policymakers and environmental statisticians.     

Economic-balance hybrid LCA extended with uncertainty analysis: case study of a laptop computer

The emergence of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) on the global stage as a design and policy tool increases the importance of assessing and managing uncertainty. This article develops and implements uncertainty methods for hybrid LCA. Hybrid LCA combines a bottom-up construction of the supply-chain based on facility-level data on material/energy use with a top-down economic input-output (EIO) model to account for processes for which direct data were unavailable. For the bottom-up part of the LCA, we account for variability in process and usage pattern data by developing parameter ranges. For the EIO side we develop a method to assess price uncertainty. These methods are explored through a case study examining energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of manufacturing and use of a laptop computer, a 2001 Dell Inspiron 2500. Results show that manufacturing the computer requires 3010-4340 MJ of primary energy, 52-67% less than the energy to make a desktop computer, and emits 227-270 kg CO₂. The manufacturing phase represents 62-70% of total primary energy of manufacturing and operation. This indicates, as for desktop computers, that mitigating manufacturing energy use, for example through extending lifespan, can be an important strategy to manage the life cycle energy of laptop computers. Results also indicate that truncation error from excluded processes in the bottom-up process model is significant, perhaps particularly so due to complex supply chains of information technology products.     

The water footprint of hydroelectricity: a methodological comparison from a case study in New Zealand

Hydroelectricity has been rated to have a large water footprint (WF) on global average. We assessed the WF of hydroelectricity by three different methods using New Zealand as a case study. The first (WF-1) and second (WF-2) methods only consider the consumptive water use of the hydroelectricity generation system, while our third method (WF-3) accounts for the net water balance. Irrespective of the method, the WF of New Zealand’s hydroelectricity was found much smaller than the commonly cited international value of 22 m³ GJ⁻¹. Depending on the method, the national WF ranged from 1.55 m³ GJ⁻¹ (WF-3) to 6.05 m³ GJ⁻¹ (WF-1). The WF- 3 considers the net water balance including rainfall, which is the key driver for replenishing water resources. It provides meaningful information that helps our understanding of the differences of the WF in locations, which are diverse in terms of water resource availability. We highlight the effects of local climatic differences and the structural specifics of a hydroelectricity scheme on the WF. The large variation in the WF of hydropower across New Zealand illustrates the inappropriateness of using global average values. Local values, calculated using our hydrologically rational method, must be used.     

The potential of behavioural change for climate change mitigation: a case study for the European Union

Mainstream literature on climate change concentrates overwhelmingly on technological solutions for this global long-term problem, while a change towards climate-friendly behaviour could play a role in emission reduction and has received little attention. This paper focuses on the potential climate mitigation by behavioural change in the European Union (EU) covering many behavioural options in food, mobility and housing demand which do not require any personal up-front investment. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), capturing both their direct and indirect implications in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Our results indicate that modest to rigorous behavioural change could reduce per capita footprint emissions by 6 to 16%, out of which one fourth will take place outside the EU, predominantly by reducing land use change. The domestic emission savings would contribute to reduce the costs of achieving the internationally agreed climate goal of the EU by 13.5 to 30%. Moreover, many of these options would also yield co-benefits such as monetary savings, positive health impacts or animal wellbeing. These results imply the need for policymakers to focus on climate education and awareness programs more seriously and strategically, making use of the multiple co-benefits related with adopting pro-environmental behaviour. Apart from that, the relevance of behavioural change in climate change mitigation implies that policy-informing models on climate change should include behavioural change as a complement or partial alternative to technological change.     

Sustainable island businesses: a case study of Norfolk Island

Conventional measures aimed at tackling the energy and waste issues of island communities focus on technological solutions, such as the introduction of renewable energy sources. There exists a history of technology implementations on small islands that have failed because of a lack of continuing skills and financial resources needed for ongoing operation and maintenance. Despite these experiences, what has received little attention so far are measures aimed at achieving island-friendly solutions by reducing their material metabolism, for example, by recycling and re-use. The two case studies presented in this work show that conservation, efficiency and reductions of the overall material metabolism of economic activity can be as effective as purely technologically driven changes. Both case studies demonstrate exceptional sustainability performance in terms of material flow and greenhouse gas emissions. The income growth scenarios show that – from a sustainability point of view – increasing tourist yield rather than tourist numbers is preferable for coping with price hikes and a finite resource base, and is also more likely to keep within bounds the strain on the island's people and infrastructure.     

Probing the acid deposition system with a semi-empirical model: The role of oxidant limitation

This paper demonstrates the use of semi-empirical models in understanding the behavior of observations made on the acid deposition system. The analysis involves fitting a semi-empirical model to annually averaged values of concentrations of sulfur in rain. It is found that the model explains over 80% of the variance of the observations. The values of the parameters obtained by the fitting procedure provide insight into the processes governing the observations. For example, we find that the parameter used to represent the oxidant concentration assumes the value of an H₂O₂ equivalent concentration of 1 ppb. This suggests the importance of oxidant limitation in the wet deposition of S.     

Soil fungistasis and its relations to soil microbial composition and diversity: a case study of a series of soils with different fungistasis

Fungistasis is one of the important approaches to control soil-borne plant pathogens.Some hypotheses about the mechanisms for soil fungistasis had been established,which mainly focused on the soil bacterial community composition,structure,diversity as well as function.In this study,the bacterial community composition and diversity of a series of soils treated by autoclaving,which coming from the same original soil sample and showing gradient fungistasis to the target soil-borne pathogen fungi Fusarium gr...     

Improving enterprise competitive advantage with industrial symbiosis: case study of a smeltery in China

Industrial symbiosis, a subfield of industrial ecology, focuses on transforming the waste of one firm into the valuable input of another, which improves the competitive advantages of supply chain by reducing production cost and improving environmental performance. Considering the specific situation where there are so many state-owned big company groups in China, this paper utilizes the ideas of constructing an industrial symbiosis among different firms, and does a case study on applying the concept into the inner relationships' reconstruction among different production systems in a big state-owned smeltery in South-west China. Three kinds of approaches are explored: 1) recycling and reusing the release; 2) concentrating and abstracting metals from the residues; 3) extending the product chain for value-added products. The results show that it can effectively improve the competitive advantage of the enterprise in terms of decreasing production cost and improving environmental performance.     

海上油田开发对海洋环境的影响——以涠洲油田为例

油田开发给人们带来重要能源和化工原料的同时,不可避免地会产生各种污染物,特别是海上石油的开发,由于其开发难度及事故风险较大,且环境管理与治理困难,往往更容易造成环境的污染.本文以涠洲油田为例,通过对油田的产污行为及其对油田周围环境的影响评价,揭示油田对水质、沉积物及生物的不利影响.结果显示由于生产水、泥浆钻屑、生活污水、落地原油等大量的排海,造成涠洲油田部分水质已出现石油类等轻微超标,沉积物在平台周边已有较明显的石油累积现象出现,底栖生物出现贝类和鱼类Pb超标,尤以贝类为甚.     

Identification of best available techniques in the seafood industry: a case study

A Best Available Techniques (BAT) analysis of a mussel canning processing facility in northwest Spain was undertaken to investigate potential cleaner production and efficiency improvements. Potential techniques were identified from the literature and from our experience in the seafood sector. BATs were then assessed for possible implementation in a mussel canning facility. This work describes, in considerable detail, the advantages and disadvantages of the techniques discussed.     

Developing country experience with eco-industrial parks: a case study of the Tianjin Economic-Technological Development Area in China

To address the pollution that accompanies rapid industrial growth in China, a National Eco-industrial Park Demonstration Program was launched in 2000. This article provides a case study of the Tianjin Economic-Technological Development Area (TEDA). The emergence of an environmental institution in TEDA is used as a backdrop to assess how TEDA has transformed itself into one of the top three national eco-industrial parks in China. Following two years of field research, a network of 81 inter-firm symbiotic relationships formed in TEDA during the past 16 years were identified involving the utility, automobile, electronics, biotechnology, food and beverage, and resource recovery clusters. The article assesses the environmental benefits of the key symbiotic exchanges in TEDA and summarizes some unique characteristics of EIP progress in a developing country.     

Fishery livelihoods and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Chilika lagoon, India

Climate change combined with human activities poses significant risks to people’s livelihood especially in developing countries. Adaptation at the community level is of crucial importance in enabling them to respond to the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate. In a case study of fishing communities in Chilika lagoon, India, the focus is made on understanding climate change adaptation at the community level and scaling it up into the policy perspective through application of Sustainable Livelihood Approach. This article challenges the research and policy community to encourage the identification of locally negative constraints and positive strengths toward climate resilient communities in rural areas.

钢筋混凝土偏心受压短柱尺寸效应研究

现行钢筋混凝土结构设计方法是基于小尺寸构件的试验研究建立起来的,大尺寸构件的设计的科学性和合理性有待进一步研究.本文制作2组4根钢筋混凝土偏心受压短柱,偏心距为0.6h0,试件的截面几何尺寸分别为200 mm×200 mm、400 mm × 400 mm.研究相同偏心距下,不同尺寸的钢筋混凝土偏心受压短柱的破坏特征,极...     

青岛市公众家电消费观及废弃家电循环利用态度

为全面了解青岛市公众家电消费观及对废弃家电循环利用的认知和态度,采用问卷调查和随机采访的方法分析研究了大量调研数据和系统信息。结果表明,消费者家电消费观比较理性;对绿色家电产品和废弃家电循环利用的了解和认识比较有限,但对废弃家电分类处置却持有积极的态度和行为。大多数居民能主动将其简单分为几类:直接销售给家电回收二手市场或走街串巷的流动商贩、在线网站交易和拍卖、以旧换新交给生产厂家或销售店面、闲置于家中和赠送亲朋好友或农村希望工程。此外,消费者对废弃家电循环利用的认知度与其教育水平直接相关,而对环境和资源保护的行为与其年龄直接相关。