我国低碳转型进程中碳强度与电气化环境库兹涅茨倒U形关联的检验与政策启示

中国正在积极地谋求低碳化转型,政府承诺落实2030年前碳达峰的目标并努力争取2060年实现碳中和。碳强度控制是实现CO_2减排的关键制度,而电气化又与碳排放和经济增长都具有紧密的联系。因此,研究电气化与碳强度的关系对政策设计和制定碳强度控制政策具有重要意义。基于电气化与碳强度关系的现有研究,本文提出了碳排放强度随着电气化水平提高先上升后下降的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)关系假设。本文以中国1997—2016年30个省份的面板数据为对象进行假设检验,并使用空间杜宾模型验证空间效应对结果的影响。结果显示,我国电气化与碳强度之间确实存在显著的倒U形的EKC关系,并且这一结论在考虑空间因素后仍然稳健。EKC曲线的拐点在不考虑空间因素的情况下位于电气化水平为10.52%的位置,在考虑了空间因素后略微后移到10.81%。截至2016年,所有省份的电气化水平均处于EKC拐点的右侧,即电气化水平的提高将对碳强度下降起到显著的促进作用。最后,针对电气化与碳强度关系的一般与空间特征,本文对电气化发展提出了政策建议。     

基于全产业链视角实施生态资产管理

生态资产是人类赖以生存的基本条件,当前研究尚未充分关注人类活动对生态资产的影响。本文从社会经济系统的全产业链视角出发,探讨产业链不同环节的生产消费活动对生态资产的影响以及所对应的不同政策内涵。分析结果表明,产业链的不同环节对应不同政策内涵,识别不同环节上的关键区域/行业能够为不同类型的政策决策指出着力点。初始投入环节的核算服务于人力资本投入行为的调控;初始生产环节的核算服务于末端控制手段,包括资源节约与污染物减排;中间生产环节和末端生产环节的核算服务于提升生产效率的政策手段;最终消费环节的核算服务于消费行为优化。最终得出应该从全产业链视角实施多环节生态资产管理的结论,并提出,为了从全产业链视角实施生态资产管理,应考虑建立一套标准化、全产业链视角的生态资产需求核算框架,建设支持全产业链视角核算生态资产需求的基础数据库,将全产业链视角管理生态资产的思维融入政策决策等建议。     

Gender in integrated water management: an analysis of variation

Gender is an important variable in water use, policy, and intervention. This article explores this variation and its policy implications. Concepts are applied in several case studies to draw generic conclusions. Variation is related to the purpose of water use (consumptive or productive) and to the local, culture-specific patterns of the intra-household organization of consumption for family welfare (which includes domestic water provision) and income-generation (for which water is an input, especially in rural areas). For domestic water use, the intra-household sharing of unpaid domestic responsibilities is a key gender issue. Water for productive use, on the other hand, is embedded in the gendered organization of household economic activity, as elaborated for smallholder-irrigated agriculture. In female-managed and dual farming systems, where a high proportion of farm decision-makers are women, irrigation agencies need to better target their support. In male-managed farming systems, however, the majority of women lack their own farm enterprise in which water is an input. Women's access to land, markets and credits besides access to water, is at stake. To conclude, given the strong variation in water use along gender lines, gender analysis is indispensable for any concrete water policy and intervention.     

Risk of Public Disclosure in Environmental Farm Plan Programs: Characteristics and Mitigating Legal and Policy Strategies

Although various studies have shown thatfarmers believe there is the need for a producer-ledinitiative to address the environmental problems fromagriculture, farmers in several Canadian provinceshave been reluctant to widely participate inEnvironmental Farm Plan (EFP) programs. Few studieshave examined the key issues associated with adoptingEFP programs based on farmers', as opposed to policymakers', perspectives on why producers are reluctantto participate in the program. A study adapting VanRaaij's (1981) conceptual model of the decision-makingenvironment of the firm, and prospect theory on valuefunctions associated with the gains and losses fromrisky choices can be used to characterize how farmersperceive potential risks in environmental farmplanning. This framework can be used to assert thatfarmers are concerned about risks of public disclosureof potentially incriminating environmental informationfrom farms because the EFP program requirements foridentification and extensive documentation of farminformation is perceived by farmers as facilitatingthe accessibility of environmental information to thepublic, and public investigative efforts. Although theEFP program does not explicitly generate informationabout the environmental conditions of a farm nor thedisclosure of such information to the public, itcreates the possibility of generating and divulgingpotentially incriminating information that the farmermay want to treat as confidential. Yet, alone, theserisks of public disclosure concerns should not preventfarmers from participating in the EFP. Awareness ofand participation in environmental farm planning canbe increased if farmers and policy makers understandwhat the risks are, and how they arise. Aspects of theEFP process that have the potential to generate riskof public disclosure concerns relate to farm reviews,documentation and record keeping, and correctiveaction plans. There are legal and policy instrumentsthat can offer various forms of protection and helpminimize such risks, and these need to be assessed.     

Alternative approaches to the construction of a composite indicator of agricultural sustainability: An application to irrigated agriculture in the Duero basin in Spain

This paper describes a comparative analysis of alternative methods of constructing composite indicators to measure the sustainability of the agricultural sector. The three methods employed were Principal Component Analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a Multi-Criteria technique. The comparison focused on the irrigated agriculture of the Duero basin in Spain as a case study, using a dataset of indicators previously calculated for various farm types and policy scenarios. The results enabled us to establish a hierarchy of preferred policy scenarios on the basis of the level of sustainability achieved, and show that the most recent CAP reform is the most sustainable agricultural policy scenario. By analyzing the heterogeneity of different farms types in each scenario, we can also determine the main features of the most sustainable farms in each case. The analysis demonstrates that full-time farmers with small to medium-sized farms and sowing profitable crops are the most sustainable farm types in all the policy scenarios. All of this information is useful for the support of agricultural policy design and its implementation, as we attempt to improve the sustainability of this sector.     

INSTITUTIONAL INTERACTION IN METROPOLITAN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

ABSTRACT Methods of institutional coordination derived from the applied behavioral sciences have been useful in determining the policy planning, and implementation responsibilities that must be shared between local governments, watershed districts, and a regional planning body in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. The confines of the traditional behavioral science models of organizations and institutional change processes, and the realities of administrative systems imbedded in political processes at both the local and state levels, have created conflicts between regional planners, watershed district staff and consultants, and municipal administrators. A conceptual framework based on work by Selznick on institutions was applied to two watershed districts, and the results evaluated for other research purposes as well as policy development for the 1973 Minnesota legislative session.     

BIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SACRAMENTO WATERSHED MANAGEMENT OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper brings together spatially and temporally explicit mechanistic models of hydrodynamic, water quality, and ecological processes with an economic model to examine water management alternatives for California's Sacramento River and Delta ecosystem, a large‐scale watershed. Overallocated water supplies in most years, combined with increasing demand for water for environmental purposes, have created a politically charged atmosphere and a need for quantitative assessment of the implications of policy alternatives. By developing and analyzing a common set of policy scenarios, this integrated framework allows us to consider tradeoffs between agricultural economic factors, water quality, and population dynamics for two at‐risk fish species. We analyze two rather extreme types of policy options; one involves structural modifications to change the flow of water within the watershed but no change in water diversions, while the other reallocates water from agricultural users to fish and wildlife. Results suggest that substantial environmental improvements could be made at a relatively modest cost to farmers (1 to 4 percent reductions in revenues) but that those costs could be significant locally. In addition to tradeoffs between farmers and environmental interests, results suggest that policy makers may need to balance competing environmental objectives.     

A Framework for Net Environmental Benefit Analysis for Remediation or Restoration of Contaminated Sites

Net environmental benefits are gains in value of environmental services or other ecological properties attained by remediation or ecological restoration minus the value of adverse environmental effects caused by those actions. Net environmental benefit analysis (NEBA) is a methodology for comparing and ranking net environmental benefits associated with multiple management alternatives. A NEBA for chemically contaminated sites typically involves comparison of several management alternatives: (1) leaving contamination in place; (2) physically, chemically, or biologically remediating the site through traditional means; (3) improving ecological value through onsite and offsite restoration alternatives that do not directly focus on removal of chemical contamination; or (4) a combination of those alternatives. NEBA involves activities that are common to remedial alternatives analysis for state regulations and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, post-closure and corrective action permits under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, evaluation of generic types of response actions pertinent to the Oil Pollution Act, and land management actions that are negotiated with regulatory agencies in flexible regulatory environments (i.e., valuing environmental services or other ecological properties, assessing adverse impacts, and evaluating remediation or restoration options). This article presents a high-level framework for NEBA at contaminated sites with subframeworks for natural attenuation (the contaminated reference state), remediation, and ecological restoration alternatives. Primary information gaps related to NEBA include nonmonetary valuation methods, exposure–response models for all stressors, the temporal dynamics of ecological recovery, and optimal strategies for ecological restoration.Published online     

Infrared analysis for counterfeit electronic parts detection and supply chain validation

Within the electronics industry, counterfeit electronic components entering the supply chain have steadily become an increasing threat accounting for more than 8 % of global merchandise trade and an annual $600 billion enterprise. Currently, there are not many cost-effective and nonintrusive solutions for counterfeit detection of electronic parts. In this paper, the authors present a statistical approach for detecting counterfeit components based on infrared (IR) analysis by the use of independent component analysis (ICA). As a prominent higher-order statistical analysis technique, ICA is capable of extracting relevant features from IR data. The latest applications and the extended algorithms of ICA have been elucidated for the purposes of classification and identification of counterfeit electronic parts. The theoretical framework of ICA is presented along with extensive experimental results to illustrate its feature extraction function in counterfeit electronic parts detection.     

The role of NIMBY in opposing the siting of wind farms: evidence from Greece

This paper aims to assess the relative importance of a NIMBY (‘Not-In-My-Back-Yard’) stance on an individual's opposition to the siting of a wind farm vis-à-vis other predictors, such as perceived effects (costs, risks and benefits associated with the project), perceived fairness of the siting decision and societal trust. Data originate from two case studies, a small wind farm of just two wind turbines in southern Greece and a mega-project of 153 turbines on the Greek island of Lesvos (aggregate N = 334). We use structural equation modelling (SEM) for testing the theoretically-suggested relations between the various constructs. We find that NIMBY is not the most important predictor of opposition while it is strongly correlated with other predictors, such as the perceived unfairness of the siting decision as well as the risks and costs associated with the wind farm. These latter findings undermine the common-sense idea that wishing a wind farm out of one's vicinity (‘Not-In-My-Back-Yard’) is an example of mere ‘free-riding’. Since the fit of the SEM models was found to be moderate, we discuss the limitations of our study and the implications of our findings as well as suggesting pathways for future research.     

Maximum permissible and negligible concentrations for some organic substances and pesticides

The aim of the paper is to provide interested parties the methods that were used for generic hazard assessment in The Netherlands, and the resulting so-called maximum permissible concentrations (MPCs) and the negligible concentrations (NCs) for approximately 150 organic substances and pesticides. The MPCs and NCs were derived for water, sediment, and soil. The concentration in the environment above which the risk of adverse effects was considered unacceptable to ecosystems is called the MPC. The MPCs take into account that the substances are distributed among the different environmental compartments, and are harmonized accordingly. The MPCs served as a basis for the Dutch government to set generic environmental quality standards (EQS) in The Netherlands (IWINS,[15]). EQS in turn are used by the Dutch Government to assess the environmental quality and for other environmental policy purposes. Concentrations in the environment below which the occurrence of adverse effects is considered to be negligible are called NCs. Hazards must be reduced when the environmental concentration of a substance exceeds its MPC. In-between this limits reduction of hazards is preferable. The MPC is a scientifically derived hazard limit. The NC is simply defined as 1% of the MPC. In general, there is a great demand for ecotoxicological data that currently limits a more reliable estimate of many MPCs. For water, approximately half of the MPCs are derived on the basis of four or more NOECs (no observed effect concentrations). For the other half, MPCs are based on only a few chronic or acute tests. For soil and sediment, however, almost no ecotoxicological data are available, and MPCs for those compartments have, in many cases, been derived from MPCs in water applying the equilibrium partitioning method (EqP-method), resulting in MPCs with greater uncertainty. Some of the methods and underlying assumptions that have been used may need improvement. For example, the factor between MPC and NC, the statistical extrapolation method, the method that is used for secondary poisoning, the role of the background concentrations of ‘naturally’ occurring substances, and the bioavailability and the EqP-method. There is a great need for hazard limits, and the present compilation tries to provide those as well as identifying research gaps.     

Risk of public disclosure in environmental farm plan programs: Characteristics and mitigating legal and policy strategies

Although various studies have shown that farmers believe there is the need for a producer-led initiative to address the environmental problems from agriculture, farmers in several Canadian provinces have been reluctant to widely participate in Environmental Farm Plan (EFP) programs. Few studies have examined the key issues associated with adopting EFP programs based on farmers’, as opposed to policy makers’, perspectives on why producers are reluctant to participate in the program. A study adapting Van Raaij’s (1981) conceptual model of the decision-making environment of the firm, and prospect theory on value functions associated with the gains and losses from risky choices can be used to characterize how farmers perceive potential risks in environmental farm planning. This framework can be used to assert that farmers are concerned about risks of public disclosure of potentially incriminating environmental information from farms because the EFP program requirements for identification and extensive documentation of farm information is perceived by farmers as facilitating the accessibility of environmental information to the public, and public investigative efforts. Although the EFP program does not explicitly generate information about the environmental conditions of a farm nor the disclosure of such information to the public, it creates the possibility of generating and divulging potentially incriminating information that the farmer may want to treat as confidential. Yet, alone, these risks of public disclosure concerns should not prevent farmers from participating in the EFP. Awareness of and participation in environmental farm planning can be increased if farmers and policy makers understand what the risks are, and how they arise. Aspects of the EFP process that have the potential to generate risk of public disclosure concerns relate to farm reviews, documentation and record keeping, and corrective action plans. There are legal and policy instruments that can offer various forms of protection and help minimize such risks, and these need to be assessed.     

Understanding Conceptual Climate Change Meanings and Preferences of Multi-Actor Professional Leadership in New York

This article sets out to evaluate the range of meanings and preferences for the concepts of adaptation, resilience, mitigation and coping of a variety of professionals in New York who are undertaking leadership positions in developing climate change policies and practices. This article positions a normative set of simplified meanings for each of the aforementioned concepts based on a review of existing literature. Utilizing a survey, these normative meanings are evaluated by and between the: (a) concepts and meanings; (b) concepts and applications and (c) applications and preferences, as applied to various risk-based scenarios ranging from sea-level rise to heat waves. This survey tests the hypotheses that the respondents: (i) are unable to consistently match the concept of resiliency with the normative meanings or applications: and (ii) will not consistently show a preference for resilience applications or outcomes ahead of other concepts. The results of the survey confirm both hypotheses, which is demonstrative of the inadequacy of the current framework dominated by a narrowly defined framework for resilience. It is anticipated that the results of this article will advance an argument for the necessity to develop consistent meanings for concepts which bridge the scientific, policy and popular domains.     

Ethical Frameworks and Farmer Participation in Controversial Farming Practices

There are a number of agricultural farming practices that are controversial. These may include using chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, and planting genetically modified crops, as well as the decision to dehorn cattle rather than raise polled cattle breeds. We use data from a survey of Missouri crop and livestock producers to determine whether a farmer’s ethical framework affects his or her decision to engage in these practices. We find that a plurality of farmers prefer an agricultural policy that reflects principles based on rights rather than principles of utilitarianism or justice. Furthermore, after controlling for personal and farm characteristics, we find a positive correlation between farmers preferring a rights-based policy and a farmer’s use of chemical farm inputs and polled rather than horned cattle. We also find that a combination of ethical framework and farm and farmer characteristics correlate with decisions to use farm chemicals, while only farm and farmer characteristics affect the decision to plant GM crops and only a farmer’s ethical framework affects the decision to use polled cattle.     

A framework to assess regional environmental impacts of dedicated energy crop production

Numerous studies have evaluated air quality and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits of biomass energy systems, but the potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale changes in land-use patterns needed to produce energy crops have not been quantified. This paper presents a framework to assess the potential soil, water, and biodiversity impacts that may result from the large-scale production of dedicated energy crops. The framework incorporates producer economic decision models with environmental models to assess changes in land use patterns and to quantify the consequent environmental impacts. Economic and policy issues that will affect decisions to produce energy crops are discussed. The framework is used to evaluate erosion and chemical runoff in two Tennessee regions. The analysis shows that production of dedicated energy crops in place of conventional crops will significantly reduce erosion and chemical runoff.     

Montana’s Clark Fork River Basin Task Force: A Vehicle for Integrated Water Resources Management?

This article examines what is generally considered to be an unattainable goal in the western United States: integrated water resources management (IWRM). Specifically, we examine an organization that is quite unique in the West, Montana’s Clark Fork River Basin Task Force (Task Force), and we analyze its activities since its formation in 2001 to answer the question: are the activities and contributions of the Task Force working to promote a more strongly integrated approach to water resources management in Montana? After reviewing the concepts underlying IWRM, some of the issues that have been identified for achieving IWRM in the West, and the Montana system of water right allocation and issues it faces, we adapt Mitchell’s IWRM framework and apply it to the analysis of the Task Force’s activities in the context of IWRM. In evaluating the physical, interaction, and protocol/planning/policy components of IWRM, we find that the Task Force has been contributing to the evolution of Montana’s water resources management towards this framework, though several factors will likely continue to prevent its complete realization. The Task Force has been successful in this regard because of its unique nature and charge, and because of the authority and power given it by successive Montana legislatures. Also critical to the success of the organization is its ability to help translate into policy the outcomes of legal and quasi-judicial decisions that have impacted the state’s water resources management agency.     

EFFECT OF WATER QUALITY STANDARDS ON FARM INCOME,RISK, AND NPS POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: Enforceable standards play a crucial role in the design and implementation of most water quality policies. The impacts of these standards on farm income and nonpoint source (NPS) pollution can provide valuable information to develop economic policies that can improve water quality with minimal loss in income and minimal risk. This study uses an integration of nonlinear programming and a simulation model to assess the impacts of enforceable standards at technology and farm boundary levels. The results indicate that the type of pollutant regulated, enforcement type, and the level of standard had a significant impact on farm income and water quality. Choice of farm boundary standards over technology standards is dependent on the impact of the policy on other NPS pollutants, in addition to the reduction of nitrate and phosphorus pollutants. Enforcing farm boundary standards on nitrates had desirable effects on subsurface and percolate nitrogen and variance in income. Technology standards were uncertain in their effects because of the restriction on the choice of technologies available to farmers. A comparative policy analysis considering incentives, multiple impacts, transaction costs of implementation, and regional consideration is important to an effective policy design.     

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA–DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the “technology scenarios”; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the “policy scenarios”; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the “global scenarios”. Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.     

Toward Environmental Management Systems in Australian Agriculture to Achieve Better Environmental Outcomes at the Catchment Scale

Environmental Management Systems (EMS) are being trialed for Australian agricultural industries as society becomes more concerned about agricultures environmental performance. EMS is a structured approach used by farm businesses to assess, monitor, and improve environmental performance. Use of EMS in conjunction with other policy tools (such as financial incentives and regulation) in agriculture could enhance management of both on-farm and off-farm environmental issues. Based on the international standard ISO14001, EMS was designed to be applied at the individual business level. However, governments in Australia are exploring its potential to be applied at a catchment scale, among other things, for the purpose of linking farm-level actions to catchment targets. In Australia, governments and catchment management bodies are using Integrated Catchment Management (ICM) as the framework to try to achieve environmental targets set out in catchment plans. In this article, we compare aspects of the EMS and ICM frameworks and comment on the potential of using EMS to achieve catchment-scale environmental outcomes. We conclude that EMS could be a useful policy tool to improve farm management and to contribute, in part, to better off-site outcomes at the catchment/landscape scale. Recommendations on the use of EMS at the catchment scale are discussed. These include using an educational approach for EMS delivery, linking the EMS process to catchment targets, and ensuring catchment targets are realistic and achievable.