FloodProBE: technologies for improved safety of the built environment in relation to flood events

The FloodProBE project started as a FP7 research project in November 2009.Floods, together with wind related storms, are considered the major natural hazard in the EU in terms of risk to people and assets. In order to adapt urban areas (in river and coastal zones) to prevent flooding or to be better prepared for floods, decision makers need to determine how to upgrade flood defences and increasing flood resilience of protected buildings and critical infrastructure (power supplies, communications, water, transport, etc.) and assess the expected risk reduction from these measures.The aim of the FloodProBE-project is to improve knowledge on flood resilience and flood protection performance for balancing investments in flood risk management in urban areas. To this end, technologies, methods and tools for assessment purposes and for the adaptation of new and existing buildings and critical infrastructure are developed, tested and disseminated.Three priority areas are addressed by FloodProBE. These are: (i) vulnerability of critical infrastructure and high-density value assets including direct and indirect damage, (ii) the assessment and reliability of urban flood defences including the use of geophysical methods and remote sensing techniques and (iii) concepts and technologies for upgrading weak links in flood defences as well as construction technologies for flood proofing buildings and infrastructure networks to increase the flood resilience of the urban system.The primary impact of FloodProBE in advancing knowledge in these areas is an increase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. performance) of new and existing flood protection structures and flood resilience measures.     

Supporting local climate change adaptation: Where we are and where we need to go

Local governments are on the front line of efforts to address climate-related impacts. Recognizing this, there is a growing movement to develop and deliver tools, resources, and services to support local communities’ climate adaptation initiatives. There is, however, limited understanding of what specific types of resources exist and how well these resources match the needs of local practitioners. To bring clarity to these questions, we: 1) assessed the current landscape of climate-adaptation resources and services; 2) surveyed community practitioners to learn how well these resources align with their needs; and 3) convened leading service providers and local practitioners to identify strategic opportunities for moving the adaptation field forward. Findings demonstrate that existing services and resources are meeting the early phases of local adaptation efforts such as conducting vulnerability assessments and creating adaptation plans, but are failing to meet the needs associated with implementing, monitoring, and evaluating adaptation activities. Additionally, a lack of funding and staff time to support adaptation, as well as inaccessible resource formats are barriers impeding local climate adaptation efforts. The mismatch between the types and formats of services being provided and the needs of local governments means that more work is needed to ensure that climate adaptation resources are responsive to the existing and future needs of local governments. Moreover, our research finds that there is a strong and growing need to organize and streamline the climate adaptation resource and service landscape so that practitioners can easily, effectively, and efficiently access the resources they need to build more resilient local communities.     

Using participatory geographic approaches for urban flood risk in Santiago de Chile: Insights from a governance analysis

Studies based on information acquired by participative geographic approaches have sought to cope with emergency situations and disasters such as floods. However, the impact of these approaches to flood risk governance systems in order to understand these types of events as a complete risk cycle is still not clear. This paper focuses on analysing the governance possibilities of using participative geographic information like volunteered and public participatory geographic information for flood risk reduction in the case of Santiago de Chile, a city which regularly experiences urban floods during rainy seasons. Based on in-depth interviews and document analysis, our study indicates that a relevant part of the current information used for flood risk reduction efforts is provided to local and regional authorities by the affected population. Though, local actors are not recognized by central agencies as valid agents for the production of official information. Moreover, there are neither instances of communication or deliberation with the community, which reduces the capacity of local actors to discuss possible solutions. Participative geographic instruments are seen as potential mechanisms to strengthen work relations among local actors and authorities, by enhancing new logics for producing and sharing information. The impacts for the current risk governance system though can be diverse depending on the participants' level of commitment of participants and the political relations between actors and agencies. Considered as merely data acquisition and analysis mechanisms, participative instruments reproduce the existing hierarchical top-down structures. Furthermore, local-based approaches can enhance local work, support local diagnostics and increase the decision capacity of citizens.     

Historical assessment of Chinese and Japanese flood management policies and implications for managing future floods

Floods are among the world's most devastating natural disasters, causing immense damage and accounting for a large number of deaths world-wide. Good flood management policies play an extremely important role in preventing floods. It is well known that China has more than 5000 years of experience in flood management policy beginning with the reign of DaYu and Gun. Although culturally related, Japanese flood management developed differently from that of China. Under rapid development of civil engineering technology, flood management was achieved primarily through the construction of dams, levees and other structures. These structures were never adequate to stop all floods, and recent climate change driven extreme events are ever more frequently overwhelming such infrastructure. It is important to take a historical perspective of Japanese and Chinese flood management in order to better manage increasingly frequent extreme events and climate change. We present insights taken from an historical overview of Japanese and Chinese flood management policies in order to guide future flood risk management policy.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.     

Bringing flood resilience into practice: the FREEMAN project

The recent shift in flood risk management concedes that floods cannot be prevented but the impacts on and vulnerability of the risk prone communities can be reduced. Beyond mere structural defence, an integrated risk management approach deploys a diversified set of measures that moderate the economic and social drivers of risk and improve risk governance. In this context, the concept of resilience gains on importance despite the many challenges that obstruct its implementation in management practice. This paper contributes to tackling these challenges and elaborates on opportunities and bottlenecks to bring resilience into practice based on a review of the flood risk management in three case studies in Europe: Flanders (Belgium), Niedersachsen (Germany) and Calabria (Italy). The paper summarizes insights gained on three components of resilience being – institutional interplay, flood management tools and risk communication. The work that has lead to this paper is done under the FREEMAN project (flood resilience enhancement and management), funded under the 2nd CRUE ERA-Net Funding Initiative.     

1950-2009年洞庭湖流域农业水灾演变特征及分异规律

洞庭湖流域为我国重要农业生产区,而农业水灾却一直是制约农业可持续发展的最大障碍因素。以1950-2009年水灾统计资料为依据,用定性与定量相结合的方法,系统分析了该流域农业水灾演变特征及区域分异。结果表明:①年年发生流域性或区域性的农业水灾,其中重灾、特大水灾频率呈增大趋势;②在长时间尺度演变过程中,受灾率异常指数岀现2个波峰期和4个波谷期,成灾率异常指数岀现3个波峰期和3个波谷期,且水灾受灾率与成灾率大体上呈同步变化,但短时间內受灾率与成灾率却呈反向波动;③农业水灾具有突变性,但总体演变呈增加趋势;④受孕灾环境、洪涝致灾因子及经济发展水平组合差异的制约,农业相对灾情与绝对灾情在空间上的分布均呈明显的南北分异与东西分异。     

Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future

Flood damages have exhibited a rapid upward trend, both globally and in Europe, faster than population and economic growth. Hence, vigorous attempts of attribution of changes have been made. Flood risk and vulnerability tend to change over many areas, due to a range of climatic and nonclimatic impacts whose relative importance is site-specific. Flooding is a complex phenomenon and there are several generating mechanisms, among others intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, ice jam. Projected climate-driven changes in future flood frequency are complex, depending on the generating mechanism, e.g., increasing flood magnitudes where floods result of heavy rainfall and possibly decreasing magnitudes where floods are generated by spring snowmelt. Climate change is likely to cause an increase of the risk of riverine flooding across much of Europe. Projections of flood hazard in Europe based on climatic and hydrological models, reviewed in this paper, illustrate possible changes of recurrence of a 100-year flood (with probability of exceedance being 1-in-100 years) in Europe. What used to be a 100-year flood in the control period is projected to become either more frequent or less frequent in the future time horizon of concern. For a large part of the continent, large flooding is projected to become more commonplace in future, warmer climate. Due to the large uncertainty of climate projections, it is currently not possible to devise a scientifically-sound procedure for redefining design floods (e.g. 100-year flood) in order to adjust flood defenses. For the time being, we recommend to adjust design floods using a “climate change factor” approach.     

Fitting together the building blocks for sustainability: a revised model for integrating ecological,social, and financial factors into business decision-making

Companies committed to integrating sustainability concerns into product decisions are confronted with the daunting task of assessing hundreds, or thousands, of materials and goods. Further complicating efforts have been the rapid growth of environmental and social assessment principles, strategies, actions, and tools. The lack of clarity on how existing approaches are complementary or distinct has resulted in ambiguities about pathways forward for companies. This current state of the field highlights the need to draw out interconnections between the wide range of current work on integrating environmental and social issues into material, product, and other business decisions.This article—developed through collaboration among several environmental, social, and sustainability-oriented researchers and practitioners—addresses this need through building upon pre-existing work [J. Cleaner Prod. 10(3) (2002) 197; J. Cleaner Prod. 8(3) (2000) 243]. It proposes adaptations on a framework for organizing the assessment field, including development of exemplary sustainable product characteristics and their inclusion in a “strategic sustainable development” decision-making model and process [J. Cleaner Prod. 10(3) (2002) 197]. The article also argues for an expansion of analytical approaches within this previously developed framework in order to highlight social aspects of sustainability and landscape-level issues. Finally, the article puts these elements together to describe a pathway forward for companies. In the conclusion, areas for future research are highlighted.     

Analyzing flood risk and related impacts to urban communities in central Vietnam

This study aims at understanding flood risks and their impact on a community, in order to enhance communities’ resilience and adaptive capacity to these threats. It also investigates the possibility of looking at and handling risk from a resilience point of view. Therefore, while a conventional risk management process is employed in this study, social, physical, economic, and institutional dimensions of resilience are also included in order to grasp the extent of risks and the ways in which communities face, cope with, and recover from flooding. Findings showed that there was no significant difference in the perception of flood risk among household heads educated up to secondary school level, suggesting that they believe floods are purely natural events. Those with a higher level of education (high school and above) (82.7 % of respondents) were aware that flood disasters are the result of hazard and vulnerability combined. In addition, social dynamics were apparently strengthened by such disasters, which resulted in cohesion and mutual help following floods in some wards. Also, households with more sources of income and more savings appear to recover faster than others after a flooding event. With regard to governance and networks, greater efforts have to be made by local institutions to ensure basic functioning during and after disaster events and to invest more into risk reduction activities. However, further studies need to be conducted to clarify the understanding of the impact flood disasters have on the environment and community lives and livelihoods in general, as traditional coping strategies, although still practical, no longer suffice in the face of changes in climate and environment.     

Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies - a case study from Tyrol,Austria

Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses—with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.     

Adaptation Planning Support Toolbox: Measurable performance information based tools for co-creation of resilient,ecosystem-based urban plans with urban designers,decision-makers and stakeholders

Currently, most tools, guidelines and benchmarks for urban adaptation raise awareness on climate change impacts, assess the city’s vulnerability and/or address the need for adaptation on a policy-level. However, tools that have the ability to implement adaptation solutions in the actual urban planning and design practice seem to be missing. We developed and tested the Adaptation Planning Support Toolbox (APST) to fill this gap. This toolbox supports local policymakers, planners, designers and practitioners in defining the program of demands, in setting adaptation targets, in selecting from more than 60 blue, green and grey adaptation measures and with informed co-creation of conceptual adaptation plans. The APST provides quantitative, evidence-based performance information on (cost)effectiveness of adaptation measures regarding climate resilience and co-benefits. The APST can be used design workshops, to feed dialogues among stakeholders on where and how which ecosystem-based adaptation measures can be applied. Applications of the AST in various settings and context in cities on different continents have illustrated the added value of the toolbox in bringing policy and practice together with help of science. With more and more cities worldwide that will make the step from policymaking to actual adaptation-inclusive urban (re)development practice we foresee a growing demand for such tools.     

The effectiveness of flood risk communication strategies and the influence of social networks—Insights from an agent-based model

Flood risk management is becoming increasingly important, because more people are settling in flood-prone areas, and flood risk is increasing in many regions due to extreme weather events associated with climate change. It has been proposed that appropriately designed flood risk communication campaigns can stimulate floodplain inhabitants to prepare for flooding, and encourage adaptation to climate change. However, such campaigns do not always result in the desired action, and the effectiveness of communication in raising flood risk awareness and improving flood preparedness has hardly been studied. We evaluate different flood risk communication strategies, using an agent-based modelling approach, which is especially suitable for examining the effect of communication on each individual, and how flood risk communication can propagate through an individual’s social network. Our modelling results show that tailored, people-centred, flood risk communication can be significantly more effective than the common approach of top-down government communication, even when tailored communication reaches fewer individuals. Furthermore, communication on how to protect against floods, in addition to providing information about flood risk, is much more effective than the traditional strategy of communicating only about flood risk. Another main finding is that a person’s social network can have a significant effect on whether or not individuals take protective action. This leads to the recommendation that flood risk communication should aim at exploiting this natural amplifying effect of social networks, for instance, through the use of social media.     

Collaborative use of geodesign tools to support decision-making on adaptation to climate change

Spatial planners around the world need to make climate change adaptation plans. Climate adaptation planning requires combining spatial information with stakeholder values. This study demonstrates the potential of geodesign tools as a mean to integrate spatial analysis with stakeholder participation in adaptation planning. The tools are interactive and provide dynamic feedback on stakeholder objectives in response to the application of spatial measures. Different rationalities formed by underlying internalized values influence the reasoning of decision-making. Four tools were developed, each tailored to different rationalities varying between a collective or individual viewpoint and analytical or political arguments. The tools were evaluated in an experiment with four groups of participants that were set around an interactive mapping device: the touch table. To study how local decision-making on adaptation can be supported, this study focuses on a specific case study in the Netherlands. In this case study, multiple different stakeholders need to make spatial decisions on land use and water management planning in response to climate change. The collaborative use of four geodesign tools was evaluated in an interactive experiment. The results show that the geodesign tools were able to integrate the engagement of stakeholders and assessment of measures. The experiment showed that decision-making on adaptation to climate change can benefit from the use of geodesign tools as long as the tool is carefully matched to the rationality that applies to the adaptation issue. Although the tools were tested to support the design of adaptation plans in a Dutch setting, the tools could be used for regional adaptation planning in other countries such as the development of regional adaptation strategies (RAS) as required by the European Union or on a national scale to support developing national adaptation plans of action (NAPAs) as initiated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for least developed countries.     

基于Z指数的昆明市洪涝研究

本文基于昆明市12个气象站点1963～2013年逐月降水量数据,采用Z指数的方法,得到旱涝等级评定结果,对昆明市洪涝的时空分布特征及成因进行了深入分析与研究,在此基础上提出防洪减灾对策.研究结果表明:时间分布上,昆明市在1963～2013年间,降水量经历了上升-下降-上升下降的波动状态,51年内共出现了8次重涝,3次大涝,10次偏涝,洪涝类型以重涝和偏涝为主,洪涝主要集中出分布在60年代中期至70年代中期、80年代末至21世纪初.空间分布上,昆明市的主城区昆明及其下风方向的嵩明地区降水较多,洪涝程度最为严重,呈贡、东川地区的降水较少,洪涝程度最轻.影响因素上,影响降水量最大的自然因素是相对湿度,其次是蒸发量及总云量;最大的人为因素是城市人口,其次是SO2排放量、建成区面积及道路面积.     

Floods in southern Portugal: their physical and human causes,impacts and human response

Floods have been the most deadlynatural disasters in Portugal during the lastcentury, followed by earthquakes. The typeof flood known as a `progressive flood'mainly affects the larger basins, such asthat of the Tagus River, and results in alarge inundated area. These floods arecaused by heavy rains associated with awesterly zonal circulation that may persistfor weeks. The system of dams within thebasin reduces the frequency of flooding,but cannot `tame' the river. The dam systemhas even contributed to an increase in thepeak flow, as in the 1979 flood.Nevertheless, these floods are not a dangerfor the human population. In contrast, flashfloods are more dangerous and deadlier thanprogressive floods, as demonstrated in 1967and 1997. They affect the small drainagebasins and are caused by heavy andconcentrated rainfall, created byconvective depressions (active cold poolsor depressions caused by the interactionbetween polar and tropical air masses),active in the south of the country, in theLisbon region, Alentejo and the Algarve.Deforestation, soil impermeability, chaoticurbanization, building on floodplains, theblockage of small creeks or theircanalisation, and the building of walls andtransverse embankments along the smallcreeks all contribute to the aggravation ofthis kind of flood.     

A multiple timescales approach to assess urgency in adaptation to climate change with an application to the tourism industry

As climate change adaptation is increasingly discussed and becoming a mainstream concept, different types of users are asking themselves if and when they should develop an adaptation strategy, often not knowing where to begin. Climate experts, on the other hand, have access to an enormous amount of data that could be useful to users but often do not know how to translate it into something practical. Both users and experts can be linked through two timescales, the system lifespan and climate vulnerability. While the system lifespan relies on the user’s estimation of his planning timeframe, the climate vulnerability is estimated from climate model projections and observations. We propose a simple tool to relate user and climate expert knowledge by combining the two timescales. To be reliable, the interconnection implies a dialogue to first identify what sensitive climate variable will impact the system and subsequently the extent of the impact. Climate data can then be used to identify, with the use of a simple graph, how sensitive a system is likely to be and help users position themselves about the urgency of adaptation. The concept has been successfully presented and applied to the tourism industry, notably the ski industry, which is showcased in this paper.     

新疆叶尔羌河突发性洪水初步研究

叶尔羌河发源于昆仑山和喀喇昆仑山区,是新疆第三大河。近30年,每2—3年发生一次突发性洪水,给下游人民造成很大灾难。 本文阐述了该洪水的特性,时空分布、演进情势及峰量变化,加之分析气象资料、地质地貌条件,首次提出突发性洪水成因于冰川阻塞湖泄洪,其策源地位于克勒青河上游的克亚吉尔特索湖和特拉木坎力湖。随着冰川的衰退,阻塞湖将逐渐缩小。     

Collaboration mobilises institutions with scale-dependent comparative advantage in landscape-scale biodiversity conservation

Landscape-scale approaches are emerging as central to ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation globally, triggering the requirement for collaboration between multiple actors and associated risks including knowledge asymmetries; institutional fragmentation; uncertainty; power imbalances; “invisible” slow-changing variables; and entrenched socio-economic inequities. While social science has elucidated some dimensions required for effective collaboration, little is known about how collaboration manages these risks, or of its effects on associated social-ecological linkages. Our analysis of four different Australian contexts of collaboration shows they mobilised institutions matched to addressing environmental threats, at diverse scales across regulatory and non-regulatory domains. The institutions mobilised included national regulatory controls on development that threatened habitat, incentives to farmers for practice-change, and mechanisms that increased resources for on-ground fire and pest management. Knowledge-sharing underpinned effective risk management and was facilitated through the use of boundary objects, enhanced multi-stakeholder peer review processes, interactive spatial platforms, and Aboriginal-driven planning. Institutions mobilised in these collaborations show scale-dependent comparative advantage for addressing environmental threats. The findings confirm the need to shift scientific attention away from theorising about the ideal-scale for governance. We argue instead for a focus on understanding how knowledge-sharing activities across multiple scales can more effectively connect environmental threats with the most capable institution to address these threats.     

Experimental floods: A new era for Spanish and Mediterranean rivers?

The provision of human-designed floods in regulated rivers is still an incipient worldwide practice. However, these floods have already been shown to have relevant effects on the ecogeomorphic integrity of rivers altered by flow regulation. In Spain, experimental floods were legally established in 2008 and were stipulated in two subsequent Basin Management Plans as compulsory practice for improving the functioning of strategic river reaches. Since that time, a number of flooding events have been carried out in rivers of Mediterranean condition. This paper reviews the main consequences of experimental flood releases in three Spanish river sites downstream of major hydraulic infrastructures. In each case, the ecologic and geomorphic effects of the releases are analysed in parallel with their causes and consequences, thereby providing a detailed understanding of the dynamics of each scenario. The Spanish examples and the lessons learned from them are contrasted with examples of experimental floods from other countries (U.S.A., Switzerland, Australia). Lastly, recommendations are proposed to improve the implementation of future experimental floods in Spain and other Mediterranean countries.