Assessing high impacts of climate change: spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ecosystem services in northern Japan (Teshio River watershed)

Ecosystem services (ESs) provide information on the tendency of ecosystems to reach and form a state of equilibrium. The process of ES changes is important in order to identify the climate change-related causes that occur regionally to globally. ES-based management plays an important role in mitigation strategies for the negative impact of global climate change on ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate spatial characteristics and relationships among these multiple services from different spatial scales which could aid in multiple ES sustainable development from local to global scales. In this study, we developed a framework for analyzing the spatial characteristics and interactive relationships of multiple ESs. We analyzed the spatial distributions of six hydrological ESs that are important in the northernmost part of Japan (Teshio River watershed) by using hydrology and nutrient model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) under baseline climate conditions and climate change derived from the global circulation model (GCM). We then explored the spatial characteristic scales of ESs by multiscale analysis (lacunarity estimation) to reveal provision flow and spatial distribution characteristics for hydrological ESs. We observed a strong relationship between the spatial characteristics of land uses and ES provision. The spatial characteristics of individual hydrological ESs were totally different and had different spatial homogeneity and cluster (indicated by initial lacunarity index and lacunarity dimension). The results also showed trade-offs between inorganic nutrient retention (provision ESs) and organic nutrient and sediment retentions (regulating ESs), and synergies between organic nutrient retention and sediment retention under all climate change scenarios. The different stakeholders will take different mitigation programs (e.g., establishing riparian vegetation, planning nutrient management practices, and integrating climate change model into systematic conservation planning of ESs) to avoid negative impacts of climate change on ESs. Application of this proposed framework to study the spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ESs under climate change could provide understanding on the impact of climate change on ES changes and solutions to mitigate strategies to cope with those changes in the future.     

Future production of rainfed wheat in Iran (Khorasan province): climate change scenario analysis

Projecting staple crop production including wheat under future climate plays a fundamental role in planning the required adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change effects especially in developing countries. The main aim of this study was to investigate the direction and magnitude of climate change impacts on grain yield of rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production and precipitation within growing season. This study was performed for various regions in Khorasan province which is located in northeast of Iran. Climate projections of two General Circulation Models (GCM) for four locations under three climate change scenarios were employed in this study for different future time periods. A stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG5) was used for downscaling to generate daily climate parameters from GCMs output. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.5 was employed to evaluate rainfed wheat performance under future climate. Grain yield of rainfed wheat and precipitation during growth period considerably decreased under different scenarios in various time periods in contrast to baseline. Highest grain yield and precipitation during growth period was obtained under B1 scenario but A1B and A2 scenarios resulted in sharp decrease (by ?57 %) of grain yield. Climate change did not have marked effects on evapotranspiration during the rainfed wheat growth. A significant correlation was detected between grain yield, precipitation and evapotranspiration under climate change for both GCMs and under all study scenarios. It was concluded, that rainfed wheat production may decline during the next 80 years especially under A2 scenario. Therefore, planning the comprehensive adaptation and mitigation program is necessary for avoiding climate change negative impact on rainfed wheat production.     

Assessing the high impacts of land use change: spatial characteristics of land uses and ecological compensation based on payment for ecosystem services model in a mountainous area,China

Most impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) are related to land use changes that may cause ecosystem fragmentation and loss of ecosystem functions. Spatial planning focused on sustainable landscape development should consider the local potential for providing ESs as well as ecological conservation due to land use changes. To better address the issues that are related to ecological and the ecological and environmental conservation, ecological compensation could coordinate the development of the energy, the economy, and the environment by internalizing environmental externalities and adjusting for the relationships with stakeholders’ benefits. In this study, we developed a framework for analyzing the spatial characteristics of land uses and calculating ecological compensation based on pay for ecosystem services (PESs) from 1995 to 2010 in the upstream of Min River, China. In terms of lacunarity analysis, we firstly explored the spatial patterns of land uses in these two periods that occurred at different spatial characteristic scales. We also observed a strong relationship between lacunarity values and the different distribution patterns of land uses. We then investigated changes in ESs in response to land use change through the assignment of per unit area ecological service value (ESV) method. The total value of ESs dropped from 449.97 billion yuan in 1995 to 441.35 billion yuan in 2010, exhibiting decreasing rate, mainly due to the degradation of woodlands. Soil formation and retention, gas regulation, and biodiversity protection were the three largest ESs, contributing about 50% of the total ESV. Considering the changed relation between social and economic indicators and ESV based on spatial visualization and analysis, we finally constructed a quantitative estimate model for ecological compensation taking a village as study unit and determined standard value so as to evaluate ecological compensation from 1995 to 2010. Spatial differences of the ecological compensation were significant among all the villages and towns. The maximum ecological compensation account (ranged from 1.68 to 8.54 billion yuan) appeared in the villages approximated to Li County, Heishui County, and Songpan County, Sichuan, People’s Republic of China. This proposed framework provides a better understanding of spatial characteristic scales of land uses and enables evaluation of the ecological integrity of landscapes. It also fills up the gap in the field of quantitative evaluation of regional ecological compensation and provides a feasible way to reconcile the conflicts among benefits in the economic, social, and ecological sectors.

     

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach to adaptation to regional climate change: a case study of Okutama-machi,Tokyo, Japan

Recently, local governments have an increasing need to take extensive and effective local measures to adapt to regional climate change, but have difficulty knowing how and when to adapt to such change. This study aims: 1) to characterize an efficient and cost-effective database management tool (DMT) for developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach to using observed and projected data, for decision-making by non-expert government authorities, and 2) to document how DMT can be used to provide specialized yet understandable climate change information to assist local decision-makers in clarifying regional priorities within a wide array of adaptation options. The DMT combines climate change mapping, statistical GIS, and a vulnerability assessment. Okutama-machi, a 225.63 km² sparsely populated mountainous region (2012 population 5,856) northwest of Tokyo, Japan, was chosen for this pilot study. In this paper, the most recent regional climate projections (5 km resolution) are transcribed into an understandable form for use by non-expert citizens who use the GIS-based DMT. Results illustrate qualitative agreement in projection of summer daily mean temperatures; the mean temperature increase at Okutama-machi is the greatest of any area in Tokyo. In comparing near future and future conditions, August monthly mean temperature will increase more than 0.7–0.9 °C and 2.8–2.9 °C, and monthly precipitation by 50 % and 25–41 %, respectively. However, the root mean square (RMS) errors and bias of percentage change for monthly precipitation in summertime are 26.8 % and 4.3 %, respectively. These data provide an early warning and have implications for local climate policy response.     

利用离散点插值扩展法评价大连湾水质状况

借助地理信息系统利用离散点插值扩展法对大连湾海域的水质污染空间分布情况进行了环境评价，通过计算污染区域的面积得出各类水质的海域空间分布，克服了以往逐点评价的海域的片面性。     

基于数字流域的水质综合管理决策支持系统——以深圳石岩水库流域为例

鉴于城市化地区水环境问题的时空复杂性,单一的水环境管理措施已不能满足实际管理的需要,为改善水环境有必要采取综合管理措施。文章以数字流域为基础,将流域内水系数据、地形数据、土地利用数据、社会经济及人口数据等进行融合,构建了水质综合管理决策支持系统,着重探讨了综合模型集成、动态空间数据与模型及管理之间的耦合关系问题;以深圳市石岩水库流域为例进行实证研究,构建了石岩水库流域管理决策支持系统,评价了旱季截污、产业结构调整、雨季截流等单个及组合措施的水质改善效果。结果表明该系统可以模拟多种措施的综合作用、动态的更新数据与模拟结果、并提供可视化的空间决策信息,是复杂流域水质动态综合管理与空间决策支持的有效工具。     

Strengthening the link between climate change adaptation and national development plans: lessons from the case of population in National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)

As climate change adaptation planning moves beyond short term National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) to longer-term approaches, it is instructive to review the NAPA process and examine how well it was linked to national development planning. This paper reviews 41 NAPAs submitted by Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to assess the NAPA process in terms of NAPAs integration with countries’ national development strategies. The review outlines the actors involved in developing NAPAs and identifies the range of interventions included in countries’ priority adaptation actions. The paper uses the example of population as an issue related to both climate change and national development to assess how it is addressed as part of LDCs’ adaptation and national development agendas. The analysis shows that although countries recognize population pressure as an issue related to the ability to cope with climate change and as a factor hindering progress in meeting development goals, it is not well incorporated into either adaptation planning or in national development strategies. Among the 41 NAPAs, 37 link high and rapid population growth to climate change. Moreover, six NAPAs clearly state that slowing population growth or investments in reproductive health/family planning (RH/FP) should be considered among the country’s priority adaptation actions. Furthermore, two NAPAs actually propose a project with components of RH/FP among their priority adaptation interventions, although none of them has yet been funded. The paper points to structural issues that hamper better alignment between climate change adaptation and national development planning and offers recommendations for longer-term adaptation strategies that better meet the development needs of countries.     

Continuously and simultaneously optimizing an organization’s safety and security culture and climate: the Improvement Diamond for Excellence Achievement and Leadership in Safety & Security (IDEAL S&S) model

This article discusses an innovative approach to measure and to enhance a company’s safety culture and climate as well as its security culture and climate in one go. A safety and security culture and climate model using three dimensions (People, Procedures and Technology) is suggested to form the building blocks of the model. The Improvement Diamond for Excellence Achievement and Leadership in Safety and Security (abbreviated IDEAL S&S) model’s structure is shaped by integrating the principles of Performance Management into the well-known and much used concept of the PDCA cycle or loop of continuous improvement. This way, the model can easily be used and implemented by any organization. Furthermore, a Roadmap is provided for introducing and applying the model and the approach to test the model in a real industrial setting is explained and discussed.     

The efficiency of phenological shifts as an adaptive response against climate change: a case study of loggerhead sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta caretta</Emphasis>) in the Mediterranean

Phenological shifts are widely reported for different species as a response to climate change. Still, the efficiency of this mechanism is questioned because of the accelerated rate of change and the different change patterns of various climate parameters that may cause mismatches. Here, using loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) as model species, we examined whether phenological shifts could be an effective adaptive strategy over the critical period that determines reproductive output in the Mediterranean region. We compared the rate of temperature and precipitation change over the recent past (1971–2015) and future periods (2016–2060) along the 45 main nesting sites of the Mediterranean population, during the incubation period. Next, utilizing predictions of an earlier nesting season, we evaluated whether the timing of incubation will impact offspring survival on the Mediterranean population. To further assess species vulnerability, we investigated any potential relationship between hatching success and climate parameters at the largest Mediterranean nesting rookery (Zakynthos, Greece). We found that phenological changes would allow species to capture a thermal window similar to one they experience nowadays during the incubation period. Still, phenological shifts might be less adequate to follow precipitation changes, which however, were found to have a limited impact upon hatching success. Global adaptation management strategies should be directed towards (a) acquisition of long-term high-resolution temperature and precipitation series at nesting sites, (b) developing early warning systems to prevent negative impacts upon reproductive outputs, and (c) directly applying cooling of the nests when first altered climate signs are detected.     

C-Lock (Patent Pending): A System for Estimating and Certifying Carbon Emission Reduction Credits for the Sequestration of Soil Carbon on Agricultural Land

The C-Lock system was developed to address the need for an improved method of quantifying and certifying project-level carbon emission reduction credits (CERC). It was designed to enable individual landowners to efficiently quantify, certify, pool, market and trade CERCs generated by agricultural management practices. We provide a general overview of the C-Lock system as it has been implemented for the USA State of South Dakota. C-Lock is comprised of four linked components: a web interface, a client database, a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of soil, climate and generalized land use history parameters, and the CENTURY soil carbon model. The user-friendly interface elicits generalized land-use and crop history information from the client from 1900 through 1989, then explicit annual information from 1990 onward. A climate-zone level landuse and crop management database is used to fill in gaps in the client-provided data. These data are used to drive the CENTURY model, which estimates annual changes in soil carbon stocks. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate uncertainty bounds, and these are applied to the CENTURY outputs in order to provide probabilistic estimates of accrued CERCs in a manner that is transparent and verifiable. In a demonstration application, CERCs are estimated for three different land-use scenarios on a representative field in eastern South Dakota: reduced tillage or conservation (no-till) management of a corn (maize)/wheat/soybean rotation, and enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program, which entails establishing permanent grass cover. The credits are based on a business-asusual scenario of conventional tillage.     

Mitigation potential of important farm and forest trees: a potentiality for clean development mechanism afforestation reforestation (CDM A R) project and reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation,along with conservation and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+)

The effectiveness and integrity of forest-based emissions reduction schemes such as Clean Development Mechanism Afforestation Reforestation (CDM A R) project and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), along with conservation and enhancement of carbon (C) stocks implementation and assessment in developing countries are required not only, the appropriate monitoring and evaluation, rather the precise values of constants being used to estimate the C stocks or C credit in place of default or guess value. Estimates are reported of the C content of wood of four forest species (Shorea robusta, Pinus roxburghii, Tectona grandis and Cinnamomum camphora) and two important farm species (Populus deltoides and Eucalyptus treticornis) in the temperate region of Indian Himalayas, derived using the ash content method. These species were considered keeping in view of their potentiality for the C sequestration and storage projects across the developing countries specifically the South East Asian Countries. The specific gravity, ash content and C proportion is estimated for these six species by selecting random woods pieces. These estimates are designed to improve the calculations of biomass C for use in estimation of C credits in the developing region under CDM A R projects and REDD+ program supported by developed country. Regression analysis of C prediction models revealed that, for all six species, C content may be estimated through specific gravity of the wood by a linear equation without intercept. Indirectly, this results also implies that among the two farm trees, eucalyptus has high potentiality for C capturing and among four forest trees, Shorea robusta has high potentiality, therefore these two should have preference for plantation/regeneration as well as for conservation.     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency by steroid analysis in the amniotic fluid of mid-pregnancy: Comparison with HLA typing in 17 pregnancies at risk for CAH

Amniotic fluid (AF) levels of 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17OHP) and testosterone (T) were determined at 16–17 weeks in 17 pregnancies at risk for CAH and results compared to 75 normal controls. The fetus was predicted to be unaffected in 12 cases on the findings of normal AF levels of both 17OHP and T and the latter allowed a correct prediction of fetal sex in all instances. HLA typing confirmed normality in 12 cases revealing 5 carriers, 5 homozygous normal and 2 indeterminate. Steroid levels of the 2 groups were similar. Three fetuses were predicted to be CAH affected on unambiguously high levels of 17OHP and T (in female only). HLA typing was in agreement, and the diagnosis was confirmed in 2 abortuses and a female newborn by physical and hormonal studies. In the last 2 cases AF levels of OHP and T were normal but HLA (A/B/C) genotypes were identical to the CAH affected siblings. Normal physical and hormonal findings in the 2 aborted fetuses would exclude the possibility of an in utero virilizing form of CAH. The discrepancy could be explained on the basis that the fetuses had an allelic form of 21-hydroxylase deficiency or on the basis of recombination (not fully tested). It is concluded that a fully informative prenatal diagnosis of CAH should not rely entirely on HLA typing but on hormonal studies.