The practice of coastal zone management in Portugal

The practice of coastal zone management in Portugal is very recent. Key issues and considerations about natural shoreline dynamics, main policy instruments, and lessons learned from the EU Demonstration Programmes on Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Portugal will be outlined in this paper in an attempt to understand how the practice of ICZM and its prospects are. Coastal zone management problems and their associated side effects, as well as national and international evolution patterns will be drawn. Some means of achieving better coastal zone management practices and ways of addressing some of its forefront issues are also identified. Special attention will go to erosion problems. The pressure induced by urban development and economic activities on coastal areas is increasing. Poor sediment availability combined with years of neglected management and over-exploitation of resources have had a negative impact, and there are many areas showing evidence of coastal erosion. There is a need to improve policies and instruments of coastal planning and management. Coastal zone management plans are being developed for the nine sectors of the continental Portuguese coast, providing a full analysis of coastal systems and a delimitation of uses in relation to the carrying capacity of the shoreline.     

Integrated coastal zone management in Italy: a gap between science and policy

This paper introduces the need, in Italian countries, of a real integration of scientific knowledge into coastal policy. Actually, in Italy, still exists a gap between Science and Policy, interfering the implementation of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) process, while there is no coordination between local, regional and national authorities. This lack of an overall strategy has induced some regions to adopt regional plans for the sustainable development of their coastal areas, to compensate the shortcomings of a national planning. Besides, along Italian coasts, there is a heavy landscape urbanization producing conditions of environmental decay and highlighting the risk of erosions in littoral areas. In this critical context, it is necessary to adopt an effective Integrated Coastal Zone Management policy, to connect ecosystem and environmental approaches with the social and economic development of coastal areas. So, in Italian landscape, it is necessary to integrate the national cultural heritage into coastal management, joining scientific and cultural issues. In this framework, ICZM process could play an important role connecting scientists and policy makers towards an effective integration for the social and economic growth of local people.     

On the integrated modelling of coastal changes

This paper introduces a possible approach to integrated modelling of coastal change, focusing on coastal land use and cover change. Some of the mostimportant open issues in the context of integrated modelling of coastal change are introduced. The paper focuses on methdological aspects. Specific reference is made to Physiographic Unit Modelling as an approach to better handle spatial variability and ‘morphogenesis’, and as a way to focus on coastal change mechanisms instead of absolute coastal dynamics for achieving an important simplification of the problem. The application is briefly discussed with reference to a ‘minimal model’. The methodological structure introduced is considered particularly suitable to represent, according to a variable degree of simplification, the integrative dynamics between resources and uses of the resources.     

Combining Structured Decision Making and Value‐of‐Information Analyses to Identify Robust Management Strategies

Abstract: Structured decision making and value‐of‐information analyses can be used to identify robust management strategies even when uncertainty about the response of the system to management is high. We used these methods in a case study of management of the non‐native invasive species gray sallow willow (Salix cinerea) in alpine Australia. Establishment of this species is facilitated by wildfire. Managers are charged with developing a management strategy despite extensive uncertainty regarding the frequency of fires, the willow's demography, and the effectiveness of management actions. We worked with managers in Victoria to conduct a formal decision analysis. We used a dynamic model to identify the best management strategy for a range of budgets. We evaluated the robustness of the strategies to uncertainty with value‐of‐information analyses. Results of the value‐of‐information analysis indicated that reducing uncertainty would not change which management strategy was identified as the best unless budgets increased substantially. This outcome suggests there would be little value in implementing adaptive management for the problem we analyzed. The value‐of‐information analyses also highlighted that the main driver of gray sallow willow invasion (i.e., fire frequency) is not necessarily the same factor that is most important for decision making (i.e., willow seed dispersal distance). Value of‐information analyses enables managers to better target monitoring and research efforts toward factors critical to making the decision and to assess the need for adaptive management.     

Interactions between water and land in The Netherlands

The Netherlands are one of the most densely populated coastal countries in the world and there is only limited space for living, working, transport and recreation, while there is also the need to preserve and expand valuable natural habitats. In order to solve many existing and future conflicts of interest, and in order to create ‘added value’, strategies are developed to optimize the use of water-land systems. The principle of ‘building with nature’ is applied in order to integrate land in sea and water in land in such a way that future generations will be able to use coastal resources in a sustainable way, including a minimal effort to maintain the coastline and the promotion of a multiple-use system. The concept of Integrated multifunctional sustainable coastal zone development is introduced. This concept deals with a balanced approach to the lack of space for present and future coastal uses in relation to each other, to the hinterland, and to the sea. Flexible master plans are developed, taking into account many functions of the coastal zone, and facilitating adaptation to future developments—e.g. impacts of climate change and relative sea level rise. In this regard increasing the flexibility of the coastal zone is of vital importance. Large-scale coastal land reclamations in The Netherlands are dealt with, based on two different principles: (1) polder systems (low lying land reclamations surrounded and protected by dikes), (2) systems of ‘building with nature’—land reclamation protected by man-made foreshores, beaches and dunes. In the latter type new flexible dynamic-equilibrium coasts are created for many functions, while coastal vulnerability is reduced and a flexible coast is developed.     

Towards the definition of budget models for the evolution of deltas

Global climatic change is likely to take place and could eventually affect Mediterranean deltas and other lowlying coastal regions. This would have serious implications for the natural resources of these deltaic areas, as well as for human settlements and related economic activities. To achieve sound decision making, to prevent damages and to avoid risky investments, it is necessary to understand the integral functioning of deltaic areas and to determine their vulnerability and response to large-scale change phenomena. Optimal use of the available knowledge will require that existing and new field measurements are combined and that integrated (physical/ecological) conceptual models of deltaic behaviour are developed with socio-economics scenarios as boundary conditions. This paper illustrates the methodological effort towards organizing a modeling framework to conduct budget computations at various scales with reference to the most significant ‘physiogrpahic units’ and to the most significant deltaic processes. The final objective is to handle the problem of evaluating possible changes under different scenarios.     

Confronting Uncertainty and Missing Values in Environmental Value Transfer as Applied to Species Conservation

Abstract: The nonuse (or passive) value of nature is important but time‐consuming and costly to quantify with direct surveys. In the absence of estimates of these values, there will likely be less investment in conservation actions that generate substantial nonuse benefits, such as conservation of native species. To help overcome decisions about the allocation of conservation dollars that reflect the lack of estimates of nonuse values, these values can be estimated indirectly by environmental value transfer (EVT). EVT uses existing data or information from a study site such that the estimated monetary value of an environmental good is transferred to another location or policy site. A major challenge in the use of EVT is the uncertainty about the sign and size of the error (i.e., the percentage by which transferred value exceeds the actual value) that results from transferring direct estimates of nonuse values from a study to a policy site, the site where the value is transferred. An EVT is most useful if the decision‐making framework does not require highly accurate information and when the conservation decision is constrained by time and financial resources. To account for uncertainty in the decision‐making process, a decision heuristic that guides the decision process and illustrates the possible decision branches, can be followed. To account for the uncertainty associated with the transfer of values from one site to another, we developed a risk and simulation approach that uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the net benefits of conservation investments and takes into account different possible distributions of transfer error. This method does not reduce transfer error, but it provides a way to account for the effect of transfer error in conservation decision making. Our risk and simulation approach and decision‐based framework on when to use EVT offer better‐informed decision making in conservation.     

The effectiveness of coastal management web portals – a critical analysis

Effective and efficient information dissemination is crucial for a successful management of coasts and beaches. Almost all coastal management activities use Internet portals to provide electronic accessibility of data and information. In this respect, we have analyzed web tracking data and costs to investigate the effectiveness and efficiency of two coastal management web portals. Indicators for the visiting quality, the volume and characteristics of the information flow and the associated costs were combined. The results show that mainly professional users were attracted by the two investigated online coastal management information offers. Furthermore, the coastal management contents were mainly relevant on regional scale. The results indicate that it is not enough to provide various information, instead it further needs also efforts to disseminate this information to a broader public. Specific preparation and presentation of information for the target groups would lead to an active dissemination process. The investigation of the costs shows that an increasing efficiency of information dissemination via the Internet goes together with the long term use of the information infrastructure. Therefore large coastal management web portals need runtimes of several years. The applied method combined and simplified actual used web analytic methods to allow valuable insights into the information dissemination of coastal management web portals. In this way the method can be used to help coastal decision makers or other practitioners to screen their web presence in the background of information supply and demand for all visitor groups they want to reach.     

Environmental risk assessment; a case study of the Colhuw Beach revetment on the Glamorgan Heritage Coast, Wales

A newly constructed coastal revetment at Colhuw Beach in the Glamorgan Heritage Coast, Wales, UK, was analysed using a recently developed environmental risk assessment package (ERA). Conflict with Heritage Coast conservation objectives is apparent and the act of building such a structure is questioned for a location where maintenance ofnatural beauty is an axiom of the coastal management philosophy. The likelyhood of revetment related environmental consequences of significant magnitude was analysed using estimated probability values derived from Bayesian theory. The damaging impact of the structure on the natural environment is out of all proportion to the level of storm protection afforded to the site. Analyses, such as carried out via ERA, would have shown planners, engineers and environmentalists, the inadequacies of such an investment and management strategy. The ERA approach can help to introduce greater clarity and consistency into decision making processes.     

Environmental risk assessment; a case study of the Colhuw Beach revetment on the Glamorgan Heritage Coast, Wales

A newly constructed coastal revetment at Colhuw Beach in the Glamorgan Heritage Coast, Wales, UK, was analysed using a recently developed environmental risk assessment package (ERA). Conflict with Heritage Coast conservation objectives is apparent and the act of building such a structure is questioned for a location where maintenance ofnatural beauty is an axiom of the coastal management philosophy. The likelyhood of revetment related environmental consequences of significant magnitude was analysed using estimated probability values derived from Bavesian theory. The damaging impact of the structure on the natural environment is out of all proportion to the level of storm protection afforded to the site. Analyses, such as carried out via ERA, would have shown planners, engineers and environmentalists, the inadequacies of such an investment and management strategy. The ERA approach can help to introduce greater clarity and consistency into decision making processes.     

Assessment of coastal erosion susceptibility at the national scale: The Italian case

To improve the present national and local sustainable planning capability for the coastal zone a GI application for the Italian Coastal Susceptibility Assessment was planned within an institutional agreement between ENEA and the Land Defence Service of the Italian Ministry of Environment. Taking into account previous European actions a suitable methodology to assess, in a quantitative way, the susceptibility of beaches to be eroded has been set up. The methodology balances the coastline trend as evaluated for a defined time period with the present coastal areas morphology and land use, this in order to derive a value that expresses the evolutionary process in terms of probability of the loss of goods within the ‘Homogeneous Coastal Tracts’. The trend in the movement of the sea-land line has been used asgeo-indicator of a complex dynamic balance that refers both to marine and inland systems, and a vector GI application was built and locally applied in southern Italian coastal areas. The present shoreline position and some other information describing the intrinsic beach morphologies, and having significance for the coastal erosion hazard assessment, have been derived from the national 1∶10.000 ortho-images of the National Cartographic Reference System provided by the Italian Ministry of Environment. The illustrated GI application— CoSTAT—keeps the nominal scale of all data collected or produced. In this analysis the coastal dune presence is analysed as factor limiting coastal erosion susceptibility. Applying a matrix calculation a quantitative evaluation of erosion susceptibility degree was achieved and plans were made to develop new information for a suitable use of Italian coastal areas. The work describes the methodology, the conceptual frame-work and the results of a local application.     

Assessing coastal management case studies around Europe using an indicator based tool

Over 350 European Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) ‘best practice’ case studies are documented in the OURCOAST online public database, to ensure that lessons learned from experiences and practices are shared and improve coastal management practices. However, concrete criteria for ‘best practice’ are missing and a critical evaluation of the success of these case studies did not take place. We present an indicator-based tool and methodology that allows assessing the progress towards sustainability of ICZM measures. An indicator-based tool was applied to 18 thematically different coastal case studies using two different methods: a fast screening and an analysis in-depth assessment. Both methods used help to identify strengths and weaknesses of ICZM and their contribution to sustainable development. However, indicator scores were highly affected by evaluators’ background and perception. The tool is user-friendly and easy to apply, it indicates what progress has made towards sustainability and to which extent targets have been met.     

A model for the implementation of ICM in the Mediterranean region

The Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Protocol in the Mediterranean means the coastal zone can be better protected and problems can be targeted in a coordinated manner. This research developed a model to improve Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) implementation in the region. The methodology collected data from Mediterranean coastal zone experts via semi-structured interviews and a review of Mediterranean Coastal Foundation ICM Conferences in 2007, 2008 and 2009. Results identified issues and recommended solutions at various points in the policy process and these were used to propose a model for the implementation of ICM. Research demonstrated the need for non symbolic engagement with science especially during the ex-ante, interim and ex-post reports of implementation. Improved and considered horizontal governance and capacity building was highlighted as crucial. Findings also emphasised the importance of legislatively supported bottom-up policy implementation for the Mediterranean to help develop local coastal management ownership. Finally, the particular complexity of coastal policy in an administratively and culturally diverse region was identified as the main difficulty for successful implementation of coastal policies.     

Choosing ecosystem service investments that are robust to uncertainty across multiple parameters

Info-gap decision theory facilitates decision making for problems in which uncertainty is large and probability distributions of uncertain variables are unknown. The info-gap framework allows the decision maker to maximize robustness to failure in the presence of uncertainty, where uncertainty is in the parameters of the model and failure is defined as the model output falling below some minimally acceptable performance threshold. Info-gap theory has found particular application to problems in conservation biology and ecological economics. In this study, we applied info-gap theory to an ecosystem services tradeoff case study in which a decision maker aiming to maximize ecosystem service investment returns must choose between two alternative land uses: native vegetation conservation or the establishment of an exotic timber plantation. The uncertain variables are the carbon price and the water price. With a "no-information" uncertainty model that assumes equal relative uncertainty across both variables, info-gap theory identifies a minimally acceptable reward threshold above which conservation is preferred, but below which plantation establishment is preferred. However, with an uncertainty model that allows the carbon price to be substantially more uncertain than the water price, conservation of native vegetation becomes an economically more robust investment option than establishing alien pine plantations. We explored the sensitivity of the results to the use of alternative uncertainty models, including asymmetric uncertainty in individual variables. We emphasize the general finding that the results of info-gap analyses can be sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model and that, therefore, future applications to ecological problems should be careful to incorporate all available qualitative and quantitative information relating to uncertainties or should at least justify the no-information uncertainty model.     

Coastal setbacks for the Mediterranean: a challenge for ICZM

Coastal development along the Mediterranean coast needs to be tackled with an integrated approach, in order to safeguard people and properties from extreme events, maintain environmental flows and ecosystems functions, protect coastal landscapes and ensure public accessibility to the shore. The complexity of the Mediterranean countries legal and administrative framework and its morphological heterogeneity make the implementation of new the Protocol on ICZM provisions on coastal setbacks,—claiming for a 100 m wide buffer zone where construction is not allowed— a challenge for the success of the initiative. European countries and the European Commission are party to the protocol but the European legal framework lacks of specific provisions addressing the definition of coastal setbacks. Moreover, climate change, in terms of sea level rise and maritime climate, could play a major role in the future position of setback lines. While arbitrary setbacks should be put in place to halt short-term unwise coastal development, science can improve the identification of coastal setbacks by providing integrated methodologies to be implemented at the local level. The objective of this paper is to review concepts and practices in the use of coastal setbacks, in the context of the provisions of the ICZM protocol and taking into account new challenges posed by climate change. A stepwise route map is proposed as a base to identify coastal setbacks, applicable to the Mediterranean region and elsewhere, to be used as a base to improve arbitrary setback approaches.     

Coastal setbacks for the Mediterranean: a challenge for ICZM

Coastal development along the Mediterranean coast needs to be tackled with an integrated approach, in order to safeguard people and properties from extreme events, maintain environmental flows and ecosystems functions, protect coastal landscapes and ensure public accessibility to the shore. The complexity of the Mediterranean countries legal and administrative framework and its morphological heterogeneity make the implementation of new the Protocol on ICZM provisions on coastal setbacks,—claiming for a 100 m wide buffer zone where construction is not allowed— a challenge for the success of the initiative. European countries and the European Commission are party to the protocol but the European legal framework lacks of specific provisions addressing the definition of coastal setbacks. Moreover, climate change, in terms of sea level rise and maritime climate, could play a major role in the future position of setback lines. While arbitrary setbacks should be put in place to halt short-term unwise coastal development, science can improve the identification of coastal setbacks by providing integrated methodologies to be implemented at the local level. The objective of this paper is to review concepts and practices in the use of coastal setbacks, in the context of the provisions of the ICZM protocol and taking into account new challenges posed by climate change. A stepwise route map is proposed as a base to identify coastal setbacks, applicable to the Mediterranean region and elsewhere, to be used as a base to improve arbitrary setback approaches.     

Implementation obstacles of the ICZM protocol and mitigation efforts

After the signing of the ICZM Protocol in the Mediterranean (Madrid, 21 January 2008) its implementation became the main focus of interest for the future. Several obstacles on the way to implementation are briefly analysed, starting with the ratification process, the competence for the implementation and the availability of financial resources to put the Protocol requirements in place. A list of mitigation actions is proposed in order to overcome these obstacles. The ways in which the Centre responsible for assisting the countries can implement this legal instrument (i.e. PAP/RAC) is elaborated in the second part of the paper. This includes the preparation of a stocktaking report to allow for defining the starting point for ICZM in the Mediterranean, elaboration of an explanatory guide of the text of the Protocol, as well as guidelines for the definition of a coastal setback. Equally important is awareness-raising and training for the implementation of the Protocol.     

The Sensitivity of Population Viability Analysis to Uncertainty about Habitat Requirements: Implications for the Management of the Endangered Southern Brown Bandicoot

Abstract:  Whenever population viability analysis (PVA) models are built to help guide decisions about the management of rare and threatened species, an important component of model building is the specification of a habitat model describing how a species is related to landscape or bioclimatic variables. Model-selection uncertainty may arise because there is often a great deal of ambiguity about which habitat model structure best approximates the true underlying biological processes. The standard approach to incorporate habitat models into PVA is to assume the best habitat model is correct, ignoring habitat-model uncertainty and alternative model structures that may lead to quantitatively different conclusions and management recommendations. Here we provide the first detailed examination of the influence of habitat-model uncertainty on the ranking of management scenarios from a PVA model. We evaluated and ranked 6 management scenarios for the endangered southern brown bandicoot ( Isoodon obesulus ) with PVA models, each derived from plausible competing habitat models developed with logistic regression. The ranking of management scenarios was sensitive to the choice of the habitat model used in PVA predictions. Our results demonstrate the need to incorporate methods into PVA that better account for model uncertainty and highlight the sensitivity of PVA to decisions made during model building. We recommend that researchers search for and consider a range of habitat models when undertaking model-based decision making and suggest that routine sensitivity analyses should be expanded to include an analysis of the impact of habitat-model uncertainty and assumptions.     

Choosing and Using Climate‐Change Scenarios for Ecological‐Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate‐change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate‐change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación