Conservation of Mammals in Eastern North American Wildlife Reserves: How Small Is Too Small?

Abstract: A common objective of methods of systematic reserve selection has been to maximize conservation benefits—frequently current species richness—while reducing the costs of acquiring and maintaining reserves. But the probability that a reserve will lose species in the future is frequently not known because the minimum area requirements for most species have not been estimated empirically. For reserves within the Alleghenian-Illinoian mammal province of eastern North America, we empirically estimated the minimum area requirement of terrestrial mammals such that reserves should not lose species because of insularization. We compared this estimate to the actual size of 2355 reserves and reserve assemblages within the mammal province. The estimated minimum area requirement was 5037 km² (95% CI: 2700–13,296 km²). Fourteen reserves and reserve assemblages were> 2700 km², 9 were> 5037 km², and 3 were> 13,296 km². These 14 reserves accounted for 73% of the total area of reserves and 10% of the total area of the mammal province. Few reserves appear large enough to avoid loss of some mammal species without the additional cost of active management of habitat or populations. Immigration corridors and buffer zones that combine small reserves into assemblages totaling at least 2700 km² may be the most efficient means of conserving mammals in these reserves.     

Incorporation of Recreational Fishing Effort into Design of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  Theoretical models of marine protected areas (MPAs) that explore benefits to fisheries or biodiversity conservation often assume a dynamic pool of fishing effort. For instance, effort is homogenously distributed over areas from which subsets of reserves are chosen. I tested this and other model assumptions with a case study of the multiple-use Jervis Bay Marine Park. Prior to zoning of the park I conducted 166 surveys of the park's recreational fisheries, plotting the location of 16,009 anglers. I converted these plots into diagrams of fishing effort and analyzed correlates between fishing and habitat and the effect of two reserve designs—the draft and final zoning plans of the park—on the 15 fisheries observed. Fisheries were strongly correlated with particular habitats and had negatively skewed and often bimodal spatial distribution. The second mode of intensely fished habitat could be 6 SD greater than the fishery's mean allocation of effort by area. In the draft-zoning plan, sanctuary zone (no-take) area and potential subduction of fishing effort were similar. In the final plan, which was altered in response to public comment, the area of sanctuary zone increased, and the impact on fishing effort decreased. In only one case was a fishery's most intensely targeted location closed to fishing. Because of the discriminating manner with which fishers target habitats, if simple percentage targets are used for planning, sanctuary location can be adjusted to avoid existing fishing effort. According to modeled outcomes, the implication of this may be diminished reserve effectiveness. To address this, reserve area should be implicitly linked to subducted fishing effort when promoting or modeling MPAs.     

Forests Too Deer: Edge Effects in Northern Wisconsin

Abstract: Browsing by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) can profoundly affect the abundance and population structure of several woody and herbaceous plant species. Enclosure studies and population surveys reveal that past and current deer densities as low as 4 deer/km² may prevent regeneration of the once common woody species, Canada yew (Taxus canadensis), eastern hemlock (Tsuja canadensis), and white cedar Puja occidentalis), as well as several herbaceous species. Prior to European settlement, forests in northern Wisconsin contained relatively sparse deer populations (<4/km²), but extensive timber cutting in the late nineteenth century boosted deer populations. Continued habitat fragmentation resulting from scattered timber harvests and the creation of "wildlife openings" to improve deer forage maintain these high densities throughout much of the Northeast.
Because deer wander widely, the effects of high deer densities penetrate deeply into remaining stands of old and mature forest, greatly modifying their composition Thus, abundant early successional and "edge" habitat, and the high deer densities they engender, represent significant external threats to these plant communities. We hypothesize that establishing large (200–400 km²) continuous areas of maturing forest, especially in conjunction with increased hunting, could reduce local deer densities and so provide a simple and inexpensive method for retaining species sensitive to the deleterious effects of browsing.     

Conservation Benefits of Temperate Marine Protected Areas: Variation among Fish Species

Abstract:  Marine protected areas, and other fishery management systems that impart partial or total protection from fishing, are increasingly advocated as an essential management tool to ensure the sustainable use of marine resources. Beneficial effects for fish species are well documented for tropical and reef systems, but the effects of marine protected areas remain largely untested in temperate waters. We compared trends in sport-fishing catches of nine fish species in an area influenced by a large (500-km²) towed-fishing-gear restriction zone and in adjacent areas under conventional fishery management controls. Over the period 1973–2002 the mean reported weight of above-average-sized (trophy) fish of species with early age at maturity and limited home range was greatest within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. The reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature early also declined less and more slowly over time within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. Importantly, the mean reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature late and those that undertake extensive spatial movements declined at the same rate in all areas. Hence these species are likely to require protected areas >500 km² for effective protection. Our results also indicated that fish species with a localized distribution or high site fidelity may require additional protection from sport fishing to prevent declines in the number or size of fish within the local population.     

Generality of Models that Predict the Distribution of Species: Conservation Activity and Reduction of Model Transferability for a Threatened Bustard

Abstract:  Predictive models can help clarify the distribution of poorly known species but should display strong transferability when applied to independent data. Nevertheless, model transferability for threatened tropical species is poorly studied. We built models predicting the incidence of the critically endangered Bengal Florican ( Houbaropsis bengalensis ) within the Tonle Sap (TLS) floodplain, Cambodia. Separate models were constructed with soil, land-use, and landscape data and species incidence sampled over the entire floodplain (12,000 km²) and from the Kompong Thom (KT) province (4000 km²). In each case, the probability of Bengal Florican presence within randomly selected 1 × 1 km squares was modeled by binary logistic regression with multimodel inference. We assessed the transferability of the KT model by comparing predictions with observed incidence elsewhere in the floodplain. In terms of standard model-validation statistics, the KT model showed good spatial transferability. Nevertheless, it overpredicted florican presence outside the KT calibration region, classifying 491 km² as suitable habitat compared with 237 km² predicted as suitable by the TLS model. This resulted from higher species incidence within the calibration region, probably owing to a program of conservation education and enforcement that has reduced persecution there. Because both research and conservation activity frequently focus on areas with higher density, such effects could be widespread, reducing transferability of predictive distribution models.     

The Significance of Protected Areas for the Land Birds of Southern Finland

Protected areas (nature reserves) cover 0.7% of the land area in southern Finland (162,000 km²), which belongs to the south- and mid-boreal coniferous forest zones. The value of these areas in preserving land birds was studied on the basis of quantitative censuses. The numbers of bird pairs were estimated in nature reserves and in the whole of southern Finland, and the significance of the reserves was evaluated based on how large a proportion of the total population in southern Finland was found in them. Forest habitat generalists and species of coniferous forests occurred in protected areas as expected by the proportion of these areas in southern Finland. Specimens of these species groups comprise two thirds of all the country's land birds. Species of old-growth forests and open peatlands clearly preferred protected areas, whereas species of bushes, and lush and deciduous forest were scarcer in protected areas than elsewhere in southern Finland. The latter fertile habitats are poorly represented in protected areas, even though due to their disappearance or alteration elsewhere several species confined to these habitats have declined and are even threatened. Drainage of open peatlands and clearcutting of old-growth forests has caused a decrease in the area of these habitats in southern Finland during the past decades. Therefore, protected areas have a high significance in preserving bird species preferring these habitats. Protected areas are particularly important for decreased species of old-growth forests, such as the Three-toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus and the Siberian Jay Perisoreus infaustus , as about 10% of their total population in southern Finland was estimated to breed in protected areas. The future protection of both old-growth and deciduous forests is important if we are to preserve bio-diversity of land birds in Finland.     

Beyond "Hotspots": How to Prioritize Investments to Conserve Biodiversity in the Indo-Pacific Region

We present a conservation index based upon the interaction of the size of terrestrial protected areas, remaining forest habitat, deforestation rates, and biological richness to identify conservation potentials, threats, and strategies for 23 Indo-Pacific countries. This conservation potential/threat index shows that four of the largest and most species-rich countries—China, Indonesia, India, and Thailand—contain 82% of the region's large reserves (more than 1000 km²) and 86% of the region's area designated for protection. The skewed regional distribution and small number of large reserves per country call for the expansion of existing protected areas and, where possible the establishment of new parks and transfrontier reserves. The index indicates high potential for conservation efforts in Papua New Guinea, Laos, Myanmar, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and the Solomon Islands, which have a high percentage of remaining forested habitats. high species richness, or endemism, but which lack comprehensive protected area systems. The index also predicts that if current rates of deforestation continue, only Brunei, Bhutan, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Malaysia will have adequate proportions of their respective land areas under some form of protection while still maintaining a minimal percentage (20% or more) of forested habitat outside reserves. Based on the regional analysis, we identify priority countries for investment in biodiversity conservation, and we evaluate funding responses earmarked for those countries. We then show how the index can be adapted to different geographical scales using examples from Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.     

Challenges and Opportunities for Biodiversity Conservation in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Abstract:  With endangered status and more than 8,000 endemic species, the Atlantic Forest is one of the world's 25 biodiversity hotspots. Less than 100,000 km² (about 7%) of the forest remains. In some areas of endemism, all that is left are immense archipelagos of tiny and widely separated forest fragments. In addition to habitat loss, other threats contributing to forest degradation include the harvesting of firewood, illegal logging, hunting, plant collecting, and invasion by alien species—all despite the legislation that exists for the forest's protection. More than 530 plants and animals occurring in the forest are now officially threatened, some at the biome level, some throughout Brazil, and some globally. Many species have not been recorded in any protected areas, indicating the need to rationalize and expand the parks system. Although conservation initiatives have increased in number and scale during the last two decades, they are still insufficient to guarantee the conservation of Atlantic Forest biodiversity. To avoid further deforestation and massive species loss in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, the challenge is to integrate the diverse regulations, public policies, new opportunities, and incentive mechanisms for forest protection and restoration and the various independent projects and programs carried out by governments and nongovernmental organizations into a single and comprehensive strategy for establishing networks of sustainable landscapes throughout the region.     

Science and Society: Marine Reserve Design for the California Channel Islands

Abstract:  We explored the interaction of science and society in attempts to restore impaired marine ecosystems in Channel Islands National Park and National Marine Sanctuary, California. Deteriorating resource conditions triggered a community's desire to change public policy. Channel Islands National Park, one of 40 marine protected areas in the U.S. National Park System, was proclaimed a national monument in 1938 and expanded substantially in 1980 by an act of Congress. Collapse of marine life populations and loss of 80% of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests in the park between 1980 and 1998 showed that habitat and water quality protection alone had not secured sustainable ocean ecosystems or fisheries. The failed fishery management strategies and practices prompted formal community and agency requests in 1998 for a network of reserves protected from direct fishing impacts to serve as marine recovery areas. A 2-year attempt to build a community consensus based on science for a reserve network successfully identified recovery goals for fisheries, biodiversity, education, economics, and heritage values. Nevertheless, the community group failed to garner unanimous support for a specific reserve network to achieve those common goals. The group submitted a recommendation, supported by 14 of 16 members, to state and federal authorities in 2001 for action in their respective jurisdictions. California adopted the half of the network in state waters in 2003. This process exposed the socioeconomic factors involved in the design of marine protected areas that can be negotiated successfully among groups of people and factors determined by nature that cannot be negotiated. Understanding the differences among the factors was crucial in reaching consensus and changing public policy.     

Protected Areas and Conservation of Biodiversity in the Tropics

Abstract: We compared deforestation rates and the extent of fragmentation inside and outside protected areas in the Sarapiquí region of Costa Rica. We determined deforestation rates using remotely sensed images with supervised classification. We georeferenced the processed images and then transformed them to vector format for final mapping and parameter quantification. The deforestation rate in protected areas was low and declined sharply from 0.56% annually between 1976 and 1986 to 0.16% from 1991 to 1995. Outside the protected areas, the rate decreased from 3.6% in 1976–1986 to 2.8% in 1986–1991, but it increased again to 3.2% in 1991–1995. Fragmentation outside the protected areas increased considerably: the number of patches increased from 537 in 1976 to 1231 in 1996, while during the same period the average size of patches decreased from 0.95 to 0.25 km². Forest landscapes in the Sarapiquí region are likely to lose considerable biodiversity because of the past forest loss and fragmentation even without further increases in deforestation and fragmentation.     

Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae

Abstract:  Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km²) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.     

Roads and Landscape Pattern in Northern Wisconsin Based on a Comparison of Four Road Data Sources

Abstract:  Roads are important components of landscapes; they fragment habitat, facilitate invasive species spread, alter hydrology, and influence patterns of land use. Previous research on the ecological impacts of roads may have underestimated their effect because currently available sources of road data do not include the full road network. We compared differences in road density and landscape pattern among U.S. Census Bureau TIGER line files, U.S. Geological Survey 1:100,000-scale digital line graphs, and U.S. Geological Survey 1:24,000-scale digital raster graphics in northern Wisconsin to road data derived from 1:40,000-scale digital orthophotos. Road density measured from digital orthophotos (2.82 km/km²) was significantly greater than that of digital raster graphics (1.62 km/km²) and more than double that of digital line graphs (1.21 km/km²) and TIGER (1.27 km/km²) data. The increased road densities in raster graphics and orthophoto data were mainly due to the addition of minor roads. When all roads were used to define patch boundaries, landscape metrics produced with orthophoto data showed significantly greater levels of fragmentation than those based on line or raster graphics. For example, maximum patch size was 1074 ha and total edge was 109 km for line graphs, compared with 686 ha and 211 km for orthophoto data. Roads are missing in commonly used data, primarily because mapping standards systematically exclude minor roads. These standards are not ecologically based and may result in false assumptions about the ecological effects of roads. We recommend that future studies take special consideration of the completeness of road data and consider whether all ecologically relevant roads are included.     

Hunting for Sustainability in Tropical Secondary Forests

Abstract:  The interaction between land-use change and the sustainability of hunting is poorly understood but is critical for sustaining hunted vertebrate populations and a protein supply for the rural poor. We investigated sustainability of hunting in an Amazonian landscape mosaic, where a small human population had access to large areas of both primary and secondary forest. Harvestable production of mammals and birds was calculated from density estimates. We compared production with offtake from three villages and used catch-per-unit-effort as an independent measure of prey abundance. Most species were hunted unsustainably in primary forest, leading to local depletion of the largest primates and birds. The estimated sustainable supply of wild meat was higher for primary (39 kg · km⁻²· yr⁻¹) than secondary forest (22 kg · km⁻²· yr⁻¹) because four species were absent and three species at low abundance in secondary forests. Production of three disturbance-tolerant mammal species was 3 times higher in secondary than in primary forest, but hunting led to overexploitation of one species. Our data suggest that an average Amazonian smallholder would require ≥3.1 km² of secondary regrowth to ensure a sustainable harvest of forest vertebrates. We conclude that secondary forests can sustainably provide only 2% of the required protein intake of Amazonian smallholders and are unlikely to be sufficient for sustainable hunting in other tropical forest regions.     

A Protocol for Plant Conservation by Translocation in Threatened Lowland Fynbos

Abstract: A form of lowland, sandplain Fynbos restricted to the Cape Flats near the city of Cape Town is the South African vegetation type most threatened by urban and agricultural development. Cape Flats Fynbos remnants, totaling 4.8 km², contain 14 plant species endemic to the Cape Flats scattered through four protected areas and 11 unprotected vegetation fragments on public land. Despite their small size and management problems, the remaining protected areas are under pressure from the public and developers to function as "lifeboats," or places of safety, for attractive indigenous plant species from the unprotected areas destined for development because the popular perception is that any indigenous plant population threatened by habitat destruction should be saved by being transplanted into a protected area. The urgency for dealing with the issue of plant rescue in the Cape Town metropolitan area was the catalyst for a workshop held at the University of Cape Town in 1998 to develop protocols for Fynbos plant species translocations. We report on points raised by managers and academics at the workshop, including the selection of target taxa, individuals, and establishment sites, and methods for introduction, and present case histories illustrating possible solutions to the problems encountered.     

Scale, Variable Density, and Conservation Planning for Mammalian Carnivores

Abstract: Many mammalian carnivores are in local or global decline. To slow this process, continued planning to protect these species is warranted, Still, the data bases that we have at our disposal do not adequately document population requirements for space at scales appropriate for conservation planning. To illustrate this problem, we have collected published data for 214 population censuses of carnivores. We tested for a relationship between the number of individuals censused and the size of study site for our entire data set. We conducted the same test for each family, for which we obtained sufficient and qualifying census data With areas ranging from less than 10 km² to over 40,000 km², we obtained a significant regression (p < .001; r²= 76%) for the sample as a whole. We examined the distribution of densities with increasing area and found that the relationship was not constant but decreased We noticed that numbers per census-area size increased with a slope (m < 1). We also noticed that the sizes of study areas were unevenly distributed Only 7% of the studies in our sample censused regions larger than 10,000 km². It remains unclear to what extent and how the density decreases with increasing scale We expect that extrapolations from small scales to larger ones are likely to underestimate space requirements for carnivores.     

保护地管理类别和功能分区结合体系

讨论了对保护地进行管理分类和功能分区的必要性,提出了新的保护地管理分类方法(由IUCN制定的6类简化为4类:严格保护类、栖息地/物种管理类、自然公园类和多用途类)和功能分区方法(由人与生物圈保护区体系的三区法修改为5+1区:封闭区、控制区、旅游区、资源利用区、高强度使用区和外围缓冲区),并创新性地将管理类别和功能分区结合在一起运用,针对不同管理类别的保护地以及不同的分区,就可以制定具体的管理目标,并实施不同的管理方法,因此能够为具有多种功能的保护地管理提供灵活的选择.这样的体系将允许人们建立起一套标准的管理要求,规范管理实践,并为监督提供评估标准.此外,还阐述了保护地管理类别体系和功能分区结合体系与IUCN的保护地管理类别体系的对比优势,并列出本体系将如何解决目前保护地管理中存在的一些主要问题.     

Clearance and Fragmentation of Tropical Deciduous Forest in the Tierras Bajas, Santa Cruz, Bolivia

Abstract: The Tierras Bajas is an area of 20,000 km ² of lowland deciduous forest in eastern Santa Cruz, Bolivia, that has undergone rapid change during the past two decades. As part of the largest remaining area of intact deciduous tropical forest in the world, it has been nominated a priority area for conservation by several environmental organizations. We quantified the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation in the area by digital processing of high-resolution satellite imagery from 1975 through 1998. The estimated rate of deforestation was among the highest in the world for such a limited area, ranging from 160 km ²/year in the early1980s to almost 1200 km ²/year in the late 1990s. Although most deforestation up to 1984 was in Bolivian peasant and Mennonite colonies, most deforestation after 1984 was in non-Mennonite industrial soybean farms. The level of fragmentation of uncut forest, caused by the spatial patterns of deforestation, also differed among these broad land-use types. Deforestation in planned and spontaneous peasant colonies was complex in shape, forming relatively large areas of edge-affected forest, whereas that in Mennonite and other industrial farms was in large, rectangular increments, creating relatively less edge. But the distribution of these farms and the practice of initially clearing around the peripheries of properties resulted in the isolation of large areas of forest. In 1998 four-fifths of the remaining forest were either within 1 km of a clearance edge or in isolated fragments of <50 km². Compared with deforested areas, the areas of isolated and edge-affected forest were disproportionately large during the early stages of frontier colonization. These results imply that if the fragmentation effects of deforestation are to be minimized, conservation planning must occur at the earliest stages of frontier development.     

Refining Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

Abstract:  Although there is widespread agreement about conservation priorities at large scales (i.e., biodiversity hotspots), their boundaries remain too coarse for setting practical conservation goals. Refining hotspot conservation means identifying specific locations (individual habitat patches) of realistic size and scale for managers to protect and politicians to support. Because hotspots have lost most of their original habitat, species endemic to them rely on what remains. The issue now becomes identifying where this habitat is and these species are. We accomplished this by using straightforward remote sensing and GIS techniques, identifying specific locations in Brazil's Atlantic Forest hotspot important for bird conservation. Our method requires a regional map of current forest cover, so we explored six popular products for mapping and quantifying forest: MODIS continuous fields and a MODIS land cover (preclassified products), AVHRR, SPOT VGT, MODIS (satellite images), and a GeoCover Landsat thematic mapper mosaic (jpg). We compared subsets of these forest covers against a forest map based on a Landsat enhanced thematic mapper. The SPOT VGT forest cover predicted forest area and location well, so we combined it with elevation data to refine coarse distribution maps for forest endemic birds. Stacking these species distribution maps enabled identification of the subregion richest in threatened birds—the lowland forests of Rio de Janeiro State. We highlighted eight priority fragments, focusing on one with finer resolved imagery for detailed study. This method allows prioritization of areas for conservation from a region >1 million km² to forest fragments of tens of square kilometers. To set priorities for biodiversity conservation, coarse biological information is sufficient. Hence, our method is attractive for tropical and biologically rich locations, where species location information is sparse.     

Long-Term Population Changes of Native and Introduced Birds in the Alaka'i Swamp, Kaua'i

Abstract:  Within the last 30 years, five endemic bird species of the Alaka'i Swamp, Kaua'i, Hawai'i, have likely gone extinct. We documented population trends of the remaining avifauna in this time period to identify a common pattern in the Hawaiian Islands: decline of native species and expansion of introduced species. We conducted bird surveys over 100 km² of the Alaka'i and Kōke'e regions of Kaua'i in March–April 2000 to estimate population size, distribution, and range limits of seven native and six introduced forest birds. We compared the results with four previous surveys conducted over the last 30 years. Five of the seven native species we studied have fared well, maintaining sizeable populations (>20,000 individuals) and unchanged or increasing numbers. The endemic 'Akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ), however, declined from 6296 (SE ± 1374) to 1472 (SE ± 680) individuals and exhibited range contraction from 88 to 36 km². The 'I'iwi ( Vestiaria coccinea ) also experienced a decline and contraction, though not as severe. Populations of several introduced forest birds are increasing, but all species, excluding the Japanese White-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ), were at low numbers (<5,500 individuals in survey area). One introduced species, the Japanese Bush-Warbler ( Cettia diphone ) recently invaded, whereas another, the Red-billed Leiothrix ( Leiothrix lutea ), has been extirpated. Two hurricanes in the past 20 years appear to have most strongly affected nectarivores and may have contributed to the decline or extinction of several other species. Overall, native bird populations on Kaua'i have exhibited species-specific responses to limiting factors. Although most native populations appear stable, the extant native avifauna is vulnerable as a result of limited distributions and the potential for widespread habitat degradation.     

A Spatially Explicit Decision Support Model for Restoration of Forest Bird Habitat

Abstract:  The historical area of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley has been reduced by >75%. Agricultural production was the primary motivator for deforestation; hence, clearing deliberately targeted higher and drier sites. Remaining forests are highly fragmented and hydrologically altered, with larger forest fragments subject to greater inundation, which has negatively affected many forest bird populations. We developed a spatially explicit decision support model, based on a Partners in Flight plan for forest bird conservation, that prioritizes forest restoration to reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of forest core (interior forest >1 km from "hostile" edge). Our primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches that harbor >2000 ha of forest core, but we also sought to increase the number and area of forest cores >5000 ha. Concurrently, we targeted restoration within local (320 km²) landscapes to achieve ≥60% forest cover. Finally, we emphasized restoration of higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests in areas where restoration would not increase forest fragmentation. Reforestation of 10% of restorable land in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (approximately 880,000 ha) targeted at priorities established by this decision support model resulted in approximately 824,000 ha of new forest core. This is more than 32 times the amount of core forest added through reforestation of randomly located fields (approximately 25,000 ha). The total area of forest core (1.6 million ha) that resulted from targeted restoration exceeded habitat objectives identified in the Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan and approached the area of forest core present in the 1950s.