EFFICIENTLY REDUCING NONPOINT PHOSPHORUS LOADS TO LAKES AND RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Several problems that make it difficult to deal with water pollution from cropland are identified. The most immediate need is for a rational framework for determining where conservation programs can make an impact on eutrophication problems in reservoirs draining rural watersheds. This includes estimating the level of control that would be required for each local farm situation and the economic impacts for the planning area. A modeling approach is suggested for a planning area in Southeastern Pennsylvania.     

Guidelines and Techniques for Improving the NEPA Process

/ The Council on Environmental Quality's (CEQ's) principal aims in implementing the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are (1) to reduce paperwork, (2) to avoid delay, and most importantly (3) to produce better decisions that protect, restore, and enhance the environment. This paper presents four strategies for improving the NEPA process along with tools that can be used to implement each strategy. The tools include guidelines for project management and problem definition, tips for acquiring existing information and identifying issues of public concern, worksheets on how to identify and analyze potential impacts on resources, ideas for enhancing NEPA documents, and a NEPA process checklist. The tools can be used at various stages of the NEPA process and provide a toolbox of guidelines and techniques to improve implementation of the NEPA process by focusing the pertinent information for decisionmakers and stakeholders. KEY WORDS: National Environmental Policy Act; NEPA; Environmental impact assessment; Ecosystem management     

FINANCING FEDERAL WATER DEVELOPEMNT PROJECTS AND SHARING THE COSTS1

ABSTRACT: The Federal Government's interest and involvement in water resource development in discussed in the context of project financing and cost sharing. After drawing a clear distinction between the two issues - who puts up the money, and who repays over time - the authors survey a number of Federal acts from which have evolved nearly 200 separate cost-sharing rules. Selected cost sharing and financing issues discussed include consistency in policies, rehabilitation of urban water supply systems, multipurpose water quality projects, and ground water management. Two proposals for cost/finance sharing reform introduced in the 96th Congress are discussed in detail and their impacts compared with current policy. The joint venture approach (Administration proposal) results in an effective composite cost share which changes significantly but not drastically (from 19 to 35 percent non-Federal share for a hypothetical project). The block grant approach (Domenici-Moynihan proposal) would alter the regional distribution of Federal water developement funding from the South and West to the Northwest and North Central States.     

Food Security in the Face of Climate Change,Population Growth,and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO₂ fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm³, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.     

Including past and present impacts in cumulative impact assessments

Environmental concerns such as loss of biological diversity and stratospheric ozone depletion have heightened awareness of the need to assess cumulative impacts in environmental documents. More than 20 years of experience with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have provided analysts in the United States with opportunities for developing successful techniques to assess site-specific impacts of proposed actions. Methods for analyzing a proposed action's incremental contribution to cumulative impacts are generally less advanced than those for project-specific impacts.The President's Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) defines cumulative impact to include the impacts of past, present and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of who undertakes the action. Court decisions have helped clarify the distinction between reasonably foreseeable future actions and other possible future actions. This paper seeks to clarify how past and present impacts should be included in cumulative impact analyses.The definition of cumulative impacts implies that cumulative impact analyses should include the effects of all past and present actions on a particular resource. Including past and present impacts in cumulative impact assessments increases the likelihood of identifying significant impacts. NEPA requires agencies to give more consideration to alternatives and mitigation and to provide more opportunities for public involvement for actions that would have significant impacts than for actions that would not cause or contribute to significant impacts. For an action that would contribute to significant cumulative impacts, the additional cost and effort involved in increased consideration of alternatives and mitigation and in additional public involvement may be avoided if the action can be modified so that its contributions to significant cumulative impacts are eliminated.Managed by Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corporation under contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the US Department of Energy.     

COST SHARING IN TRANSITION: THE CASE OF PLAN 6, CENTRAL ARIZONA PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: In the past, development of Federal water resource projects depended heavily or exclusively on Federal financing of construction costs. However, pressures on the Federal budget, environmental issues, and the notion that there are economic efficiency gains when beneficiaries of Federal water resource projects increase their cost share are causing changes. The case of the Central Arizona Project Plan 6 is a noteworthy example of the transition to more non-Federal participation in water resource development. This is because the non-Federal financing is to be provided for a project already under construction. The negotiation and terms of the Plan 6 financing agreement between the Department of the Interior and multiple interests in Arizona are used as an example of how Federal water project cost sharing is in a state of transition. The negotiation process is described, a financial analysis is provided, and the terms of the agreement and policy issues that were deliberated in the Executive Branch of the Federal Government are discussed.     

An operational method for the evaluation of resource use and environmental impacts of dairy farms by life cycle assessment

This paper describes and applies EDEN-E, an operational method for the environmental evaluation of dairy farms based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) conceptual framework. EDEN-E requires a modest amount of data readily available on-farm, and thus can be used to assess a large number of farms at a reasonable cost. EDEN-E estimates farm resource use and pollutant emissions mostly at the farm scale, based on-farm-gate balances, amongst others. Resource use and emissions are interpreted in terms of potential impacts: eutrophication, acidification, climate change, terrestrial toxicity, non-renewable energy use and land occupation. The method distinguishes for each total impact a direct component (impacts on the farm site) and an indirect component (impacts associated with production and supply of inputs used). A group of 47 dairy farms (41 conventional and six organic) was evaluated. Expressed per 1000 kg of fat-and-protein-corrected milk, total land occupation was significantly larger for organic than for conventional farms, while total impacts for eutrophication, acidification, climate change, terrestrial toxicity, and non-renewable energy use were not significantly different for the two production modes. When expressed per ha of land occupied all total impacts were significantly larger for conventional than organic farms. This study largely confirms previously published findings concerning the effect of production mode on impacts of dairy farms. However, it strikingly reveals that, for the set of farms examined, the contribution of production mode to overall inter-farm variability of impacts was minor relative to inter-farm variability within each of the two production modes examined. The mapping of impact variability through EDEN-E opens promising perspectives to move towards sustainable farming systems by identifying the structural and management characteristics of the farms presenting the lowest impacts.     

TEMPORAL AND GEOMORPHIC VARIATIONS OF STREAM STABILITY AND MORPHOLOGY: MAHOGANY CREEK,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Detailed studies of long-term management impacts on rangeland streams are few because of the cost of obtaining detailed data replicated in time. This study uses government agency aquatic habitat, stream morphologic, and ocular stability data to assess land management impacts over four years on three stream reaches of an important rangeland watershed in northwestern Nevada. Aquatic habitat improved as riparian vegetation reestablished itself with decreased and better controlled livestock grazing. However, sediment from livestock disturbances and road crossings and very low stream flows limited the rate of change. Stream type limited the change of pool variables and width/depth ratio, which are linked to gradient and entrenchment. Coarse woody debris removal due to previous management limited pool recovery. Various critical-element ocular stability estimates represented changes with time and differences among reaches very well. Ocular stability variables tracked the quantitative habitat and morphologic variables well enough to recommend that ocular surveys be used to monitor changes with time between more intensive aquatic surveys.     

Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale

Urban expansion is a major driving force altering local and regional hydrology and increasing non-point source (NPS) pollution. To explore these environmental consequences of urbanization, land use change was forecast, and long-term runoff and NPS pollution were assessed in the Muskegon River watershed, located on the eastern coast of Lake Michigan. A land use change model, LTM, and a web-based environmental impact model, L-THIA, were used in this study. The outcomes indicated the watershed would likely be subjected to impacts from urbanization on runoff and some types of NPS pollution. Urbanization will slightly or considerably increase runoff volume, depending on the development rate, slightly increase nutrient losses in runoff, but significantly increase losses of oil and grease and certain heavy metals in runoff. The spatial variation of urbanization and its impact were also evaluated at the subwatershed scale and showed subwatersheds along the coast of the lake and close to cities would have runoff and nitrogen impact. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning and decision making in an effort to protect and remediate water and habitat quality of Muskegon Lake, which is one of Lake Michigan's Areas of Concern (AOC), and the techniques described here can be used in other areas.     

Environmental Impact Evaluation Model for Industrial Processes

This paper proposes a model to evaluate the environmental impact of manufacturing processes. This model uses the potency factor approach to classify environmental impacts into five ecological health impact groups and uses their toxicological, cancer, and physical effects as the bases to rate the seven groups of human health impacts. The environmental impacts in each impact group are reported, and their hazard scores on ecological and human health are determined. The model also generates a single score for the overall environmental impacts of a process. This single score system helps to identify, among all the viable processes, which is the most environmentally friendly process. This model can serve as a tool to highlight the potential environmental hazards of process operations and to provide information about environmental performance for decision making. The model has been developed into a computer software program, Environmental Impact Evaluation System, and is demonstrated by using the processes employed for the manufacture of paper bags.     

PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

A biome-scale assessment of the impact of invasive alien plants on ecosystem services in South Africa

This paper reports an assessment of the current and potential impacts of invasive alien plants on selected ecosystem services in South Africa. We used data on the current and potential future distribution of 56 invasive alien plant species to estimate their impact on four services (surface water runoff, groundwater recharge, livestock production and biodiversity) in five terrestrial biomes. The estimated reductions in surface water runoff as a result of current invasions were >3000 million m³ (about 7% of the national total), most of which is from the fynbos (shrubland) and grassland biomes; the potential reductions would be more than eight times greater if invasive alien plants were to occupy the full extent of their potential range. Impacts on groundwater recharge would be less severe, potentially amounting to approximately 1.5% of the estimated maximum reductions in surface water runoff. Reductions in grazing capacity as a result of current levels of invasion amounted to just over 1% of the potential number of livestock that could be supported. However, future impacts could increase to 71%. A ‘biodiversity intactness index’ (the remaining proportion of pre-modern populations) ranged from 89% to 71% for the five biomes. With the exception of the fynbos biome, current invasions have almost no impact on biodiversity intactness. Under future levels of invasion, however, these intactness values decrease to around 30% for the savanna, fynbos and grassland biomes, but to even lower values (13% and 4%) for the two karoo biomes. Thus, while the current impacts of invasive alien plants are relatively low (with the exception of those on surface water runoff), the future impacts could be very high. While the errors in these estimates are likely to be substantial, the predicted impacts are sufficiently large to suggest that there is serious cause for concern.     

CLIMATIC CHANGE AND U.S. WATER RESOURCES: FROM MODELED WATERSHED IMPACTS TO NATIONAL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water‐AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water‐AIM models are considered lower‐bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water‐AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro‐logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low‐valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.     

Evaluation of environmental impacts of large scale physical development in central Galilee: Role of experts and policy makers

This article reports on the content and process used to evaluate environmental impacts caused by the development of 50 new settlements in the central Galilee region in northern Israel between 1978 and 1988. Some 60 different environmental and developmental factors and their interrelationships were identified. Selected physical changes that were defined as impacts were later evaluated. The evaluation method was based on intensive use of interviews with resource scientists and decision makers as experts. The data from interviews were used as the basis for factors identification, impact screening, and their rating. Experts used three types of criteria in the latter process: intensity of impact, the potential for its mitigation and compatibility with existing natural resource conservation, and environmental quality protection policy. Researchers concluded that reliance on experts with broad local experience eliminated the need for a more structured and detailed assessment method. The case study shows that experts provided creditable and reliable findings. They substituted the need for long periods of observation and largescale and costly data gathering, analysis, and evaluation.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

Case studies in co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation

Attempts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or manage the effects of climate change traditionally focus on management or policy options that promote single outcomes (e.g., either benefiting ecosystems or human health and well-being). In contrast, co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation address climate change impacts on human and ecological health in tandem and on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The article engages the concept of co-benefits through four case studies. The case studies emphasize co-benefits approaches that are accessible and tractable in countries with human populations that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. They illustrate the potential of co-benefits approaches and provide a platform for further discussion of several interdependent principles relevant to the implementation of co-benefits strategies. These principles include providing incentives across multiple scales and time frames, promoting long-term integrated impact assessment, and fostering multidimensional communication networks.     

Ecological Compensation in Dutch Highway Planning

The ecological compensation principle was introduced by the Dutch government in 1993. This principle is designed to enhance the input of nature conservation interests in decision-making on large-scale development projects and to counterbalance the ecological impacts of such developments when implemented. This article evaluates the application of the Dutch compensation principle in highway planning. Six current highway projects reveal consistent implementation of this principle, although provincial policies on compensation and a national method for identifying compensation measures are still under development. As the planning process has not yet been completed for all the projects, no general conclusions can be drawn on the impact of the compensation principle on highway decision-making. Nevertheless, several examples show that the principle stimulates project initiators to develop alternative routes or route sections in order to avoid or reduce ecological impacts and the need for coherent compensation measures. If the compensation principle is to be properly implemented in the context of highway planning, particular attention should be paid to the following aspects: (1) sequential assessment of overall project legitimacy and the necessity of intersecting protected areas and compensation measures, (2) the initiator's attempts to avoid and mitigate ecological impacts in developing alternative routes prior to compensation for impacts, and (3) the role of uncertain ecological impacts in identifying compensation measures, especially those concerning habitat isolation.     

COST SHARING AND IMPLEMENTATION OF NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES POLICY1

ABSTRACT: In this article a managerial approach to developing and implementing National Water Resources policy is suggested. Proper consideration can be given to national economic development (NED), environmental quality (EQ) and conservation and still result in an implementable policy at the operational level if proper incentives are built into the process with proper attention to alternate non-Federal cost sharing rates. Not only can these multiple objectives be entertained but the Administration and Congress will have a management tool that should ensure a certain probability of success.     

Impacts to Water Quality and Fish Habitat Associated with Maintaining Natural Channels for Flood Control

A field investigation conducted on Boulder Creek in Boulder, Colorado evaluated impacts of flood control maintenance activities on flood conveyance, water quality, and fish habitat. Thirty-nine transects were monitored at one control site and two maintenance sites over a period of eight months. Each site was visited on more than 50 occasions in order to characterize pre- and post-maintenance conditions, and to monitor maintenance activities. Measurements along the transects included substrate composition, flow depth, velocity, and elevation. Reach-average values were assigned to variables such as in-stream vegetation, streambank stability, and woody vegetation before and after maintenance. Water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, and turbidity were sampled, and habitat suitability indices were developed pre- and post-maintenance for seven indicator fish species. Water quality impacts during maintenance consisted of high turbidity levels (> 400 NTU), which returned to background levels (0.1–15 NTU) overnight, as well as changes in mean temperature and pH. Alteration of physical channel characteristics as a result of maintenance had limited effects on habitat quality for four of seven fish species, but caused improvements in habitat quality for three fish species. The main implications of this study for floodplain management are that: (1) Flood control maintenance practices can be in direct conflict with water quality and fish habitat objectives, and should be carefully designed and implemented by an interdisciplinary team. (2) Physical habitat for some fish species can be improved as well as reduced by maintenance activities. Habitat suitability curves may be useful tools for evaluating limiting factors of the habitat and for identifying opportunities for habitat improvements as part of maintenance.     

An evaluation of the impact of persistent water level changes on the areal extent of Georgian Bay/North Channel marshlands

A conceptual mathematical model has recently been devised to assist environmental managers in predicting the impact on coastal marsh areas of long-term changes in water levels. The model considers such impact solely in terms of the geometry of the confining basin, the change in ambient water level, and the maximum depth for which bottom-rooted emergent vegetation is present. This model is applied to 17 shoreline marshes of various shapes in the Georgian Bay/North Channel region of the Great Lakes.Model outputs of predicted maximum and minimum marsh area subsequent to changes in long-term levels are compared to marsh areas measured from available historical air photos dating from 1935 to 1985. The results of such comparisons indicate that such a geometric model, despite its neglect of the biological complexities of marsh ecology, can serve as a valuable tool for assessing the range of impacts of both natural and man-made changes in long-term ambient water levels on shoreline marshes.