辽宁省能源足迹变动的分析

采用生态足迹模型与分解分析模型,定量核算了1990-2006年辽宁省能源足迹,分析了其变动趋势及其影响因素.结果表明,1990-2006年,辽宁省能源足迹呈不断增大趋势,总量由3508万hm~2增加到6491万hm~2,人均值则由0.896hm~2扩大到1.542 hm~2,增加了将近1倍,在区域生态压力中的贡献额为30%.在各类贡献因素中,经济发展对能源足迹的贡献远高于其他因素,其次为能源结构效应、人口规模效应,能源强度效应最低.虽然能源强度不断下降,但其对区域生态压力下降的贡献不足于抵消由能源结构不合理和消费水平的提高造成的生态影响,导致辽宁省能源足迹持续增加.     

Phenotypic plasticity of native vs. invasive purple loosestrife: a two-state multivariate approach

The differences in phenotypic plasticity between invasive (North American) and native (German) provenances of the invasive plant Lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife) were examined using a multivariate reaction norm approach testing two important attributes of reaction norms described by multivariate vectors of phenotypic change: the magnitude and direction of mean trait differences between environments. Data were collected for six life history traits from native and invasive plants using a split-plot design with experimentally manipulated water and nutrient levels. We found significant differences between native and invasive plants in multivariate phenotypic plasticity for comparisons between low and high water treatments within low nutrient levels, between low and high nutrient levels within high water treatments, and for comparisons that included both a water and nutrient level change. The significant genotype x environment (G x E) effects support the argument that invasiveness of purple loosestrife is closely associated with the interaction of high levels of soil nutrient and flooding water regime. Our results indicate that native and invasive plants take different strategies for growth and reproduction; native plants flowered earlier and allocated more to flower production, while invasive plants exhibited an extended period of vegetative growth before flowering to increase height and allocation to clonal reproduction, which may contribute to increased fitness and invasiveness in subsequent years.     

生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化研究——以辽宁省为例

利用生态足迹理论和计算方法、生态承载力分析方法分析了辽宁省1998--2007年十年期间的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力变化过程。结果表明：辽宁省人均生态足迹由1998年的2．9187上升到2007年的4．3578,人均生态承载力由1998年的0．6676下降到2007年的0．6520,生态赤字逐年增加,生态系统处于人类过度开发利用状态之中;万元GDP生态足迹始终处于下降的趋势,表明辽宁省对区域生物生产面积利用效率逐年提高,但与全国平均水平相比还有提高的空间;从供需结构分析,辽宁省土地供给以耕地为主,但是从消费结构来看以化石燃料土地为主。     

景观格局演变及其生态效应研究进展

区域景观格局演变及生态效应研究一直是景观生态学研究的重点,对人类、自然的可持续发展具有重要的意义.文章从景观格局-过程-生态效应的相互驱动机制及当前的研究进展进行了系统的分析,综述了国内外景观格局及其生态效应研究相关进展,集中分析了当前研究中的热点和难点.景观分类是景观格局研究的基础,空间统计分析、转移矩阵分析和景观指数分析是研究景观格局演变的主要手段,新兴的元胞自动机理论和方法在景观格局演变研究中有很大的发展空间.景观格局演变驱动力研究需对自然驱动力、社会驱动力进行综合考虑.不同时空尺度下,景观格局与生态过程的内在机制也不一样.在此基础上,提出了今后研究的一些方向,重点是:(1)景观格局演变的内在驱动机制研究;(2)多尺度下景观格局和生态过程(如土壤侵蚀、养分流失等)的耦合研究;(3)"3S"技术、野外调查监测与格局-过程演变模拟模型结合的应用推广潜力.     

A critique of statistical aspects of ecological studies in spatial epidemiology

In this article, the mathematical assumptions of a number of commonly used ecological regression models are made explicit, critically assessed, and related to ecological bias. In particular, the role and interpretation of random effects models are examined. The modeling of spatial variability is considered and related to an underlying continuous spatial field. The examination of such a field with respect to the modeling of risk in relation to a point source highlights an inconsistency in commonly used approaches. A theme of the paper is to examine how plausible individual-level models relate to those used in practice at the aggregate level. The individual-level models acknowledge confounding, within-area variability in exposures and confounders, measurement error and data anomalies and so we can examine how the area-level versions consider these aspects. We briefly discuss designs that efficiently sample individual data and would appear to be useful in environmental settings.     

实现传统经济向生态经济的转变

认为生态环境危机的出现，归根结蒂，在于人类社会的价值观存在着重大的错误以及由此而采取的经济发展模式存在着重大的错误；要缓解生态环境危机，人类社会必须改变价值观，改变经济发展模式，实现传统经济向生态经济的转变，走可持续发展的道路；为了实现这种转变，人类在经济活动中，必须遵循生态经济规律，建立企业生态经济管理模式，合理利用资源，优化产业结构，重视经济效益、社会效益和生态效益的协调和统一。文章还认为，为了实现这种转变，从联合国到个人，各国政府、各种组织、各行各业，都必须行动起来，参与生态经济建设。最后提出和讨论了生态经济学今后应该加强研究的几个问题。     

Interaction networks in coastal soft-sediments highlight the potential for change in ecological resilience

Recent studies emphasize the role of indirect relationships and feedback loops in maintaining ecosystem resilience. Environmental changes that impact on the organisms involved in these processes have the potential to initiate threshold responses and fundamentally shift the interactions within an ecosystem. However, empirical studies are hindered by the difficulty of designing appropriate manipulative experiments to capture this complexity. Here we employ structural equation modeling to define and test the architecture of ecosystem interaction networks. Using survey data from 19 estuaries we investigate the interactions between biological (abundance of large bioturbating macrofauna, microphytobenthos, and detrital matter) and physical (sediment grain size) processes. We assess the potential for abrupt changes in the architecture of the network and the strength of interactions to occur across environmental gradients. Our analysis identified a potential threshold in the relationship between sediment mud content and benthic chlorophyll a, at -12 microg/g, using quantile regression. Below this threshold, the interaction network involved different variables and fewer feedbacks than above. This approach has potential to improve our empirical understanding of thresholds in ecological systems and our ability to design manipulative experiments that test how and when a threshold will be passed. It can also be used to indicate to resource managers that a particular system has the potential to exhibit threshold responses to environmental change, emphasizing precautionary management and facilitating a better understanding of how persistent multiple stressors threaten the resilience and long-term use of natural ecosystems.     

Experimental assessment of ecological and phenotypic factors affecting male mating success and polyandry in northern watersnakes, Nerodia sipedon

To resolve conflicting field observations regarding the action of sexual selection, we used breeding experiments and paternity analysis of the 927 resulting offspring to assess how male size, condition, tail length, genetic similarity to the female, and variation in operational sex ratio (OSR) affected male reproductive success and the incidence of polyandry in northern watersnakes (Nerodia sipedon). Only size affected male mating success. Large males were more successful, but only when male size varied substantially and competition among males was intense (i.e., male-biased OSR). The conditional nature of the size advantage may explain why studies of free-living watersnakes have produced inconsistent results regarding the relationship between male size and mating success. Size differences between males did not affect the proportion of offspring each male sired within multiply sired litters. We found positive size-assortative mating, but only when the OSR was female biased, suggesting that smaller males had improved access to females when competition among males was reduced, but that competition with larger males still restricted mating opportunities of small males to less preferred, smaller females. Most litters (58%) were multiply sired and larger females were more likely to produce multiply sired litters, similar to free-living watersnakes. There was no association between the incidence of multiple paternity and OSR, however, suggesting that polyandry is not simply a function of opportunity, with females passively waiting for males to court them.     

The use of marked point processes in ecological and environmental forest studies

The paper presents new applications of marked point processes in forestry. The tools are pair correlation functions and mark connection functions. Studies of the structures of even-aged pine forests in Siberia show a tendency of development from clustering in young stands towards random distribution in elder stands for the trunk positions. The tree tops as the movable parts of trees are still more regular in old forests. Furthermore, in Siberian fir forests interesting tendencies of attraction between members of several tree classes are detected. Finally, studies of the distribution of damaged trees in some central European forests show that there the damaged trees appear as singletons; dominating trees are preferentially damaged.     

Modelling multivariate data using product copulas and minimum distance estimators: an exemplary application to ecological traits

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Modelling and applying multivariate distributions is an important topic in ecology. In particular in plant ecology, the multidimensional nature of plant...     

长江流域湖泊湿地生态环境状况分析

在对长江流域湖泊湿地长期调查或考察的基础上,首先明确了长江流域湖泊湿地的战略地位,进而提出其当前存在的人水争地等主要生态环境问题。在此基础上从气候变化以及人类活动的角度对湖泊湿地在调蓄洪水、净化水质、保护湖泊生物多样性等方面的功能和关系作了探讨。认为随着经济发展和人口的增加,人水争地矛盾将愈来愈突出,加之种种因素造成的生态环境破坏,流域湖泊湿地生态环境压力将愈来愈大,并业已成为国民经济发展的制约因素。文章可为寻求长江流域湖泊湿地治理及管理对策提供基础资料或信息。     

The ecological basis for simulating phytoplankton responses to environmental change (PROTECH)

The theory and mathematical development of a model, called PROTECH, are presented. The model simulates the dynamic responses of up to eight species of phytoplankton to environmental variability in lakes and reservoirs. PROTECH models were developed originally to fulfil a commercial, decision-support role in the management of industrial water quality, where plankton growth is an issue. The progressive refinements to the model nevertheless have a robust ecological basis. This makes PROTECH a promising tool for researching plankton community ecology. The model calculates exponents describing growth and attrition, from a base of the maximum growth rates of algal species in culture. Subject to defined thresholds, growth integrates variability in the fluxes of light and nutrients. The paper develops this philosophy and its embodiment into the structure of the model. Examples of its authenticated, validated and sensitivity-tested outputs are presented.     

1995-2004年河北省生态足迹分析与生态恢复措施

生态足迹从具体的生物物理量角度研究自然资本消费的空间,为核算地区自然资本利用状况提供简明框架,进而可判断区域可持续发展状态。河北省正大力实施可持续发展战略,但在绿色战略问题上还面临一些难题。文章利用生态足迹模型,对河北省1995—2004年的生态足迹进行了时间序列的测度以及可持续发展的定量测算,根据计算结果进行分析提出相应对策。结果表明,10年间河北省的人均生态足迹增长率达47.9%,赤字增长率达58.5%,人类负荷超过其生态容量,生态承载力严重不能满足生态足迹的需求,区域的经济社会发展处于一种不可持续的发展状。从而加深了对河北省可持续发展状况的认识,对生态建设决策提供科学依据,并提出河北省生态恢复的措施。     

Understanding multiple ecological responses to anthropogenic disturbance: rivers and potential flow regime change

Human-induced alteration of the natural flow regime is a major threat to freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity. The effects of hydrological alteration on the structural and functional attributes of riverine communities are expected to be multiple and complex, and they may not be described easily by a single model. Based on existing knowledge of key hydrological and ecological attributes, we explored potential effects of a flow-regulation scenario on macroinvertebrate assemblage composition and diversity in two river systems in Australia's relatively undeveloped wet-dry tropics. We used a single Bayesian belief network (BBN) to model potential changes in multiple assemblage attributes within each river type during dry and wet seasons given two flow scenarios: the current, near-natural flow condition, and flow regulation. We then used multidimensional scaling (MDS) ordination to visually summarize and compare the most probable attributes of assemblages and their environment under the different scenarios. The flow-regulation scenario provided less certainty in the ecological responses of one river type during the dry season, which reduced the ability to make predictions from the BBN outputs directly. However, visualizing the BBN results in an ordination highlighted similarities and differences between the scenarios that may have been otherwise difficult to ascertain. In particular, the MDS showed that flow regulation would reduce the seasonal differentiation in hydrology and assemblage characteristics that is expected under the current low level of development. Our approach may have wider application in understanding ecosystem responses to different river management practices and should be transferred easily to other ecosystems or biotic assemblages to provide researchers, managers, and decision makers an enhanced understanding of ecological responses to potential anthropogenic disturbance.     

农业生态工程中生态效率的计算与分析

以北京市留民营农业生态工程为例,从系统中能量流动分析出发,阐述了能量摄取效率、同化效率、生长效率和利用效率的概念和计算方法,指出通过生态效率计算,指导系统调控,对于提高生产效益的重要作用。     

基于生态足迹方法的武汉市自然资本分析

生态足迹方法是目前研究自然资本状况的常用方法之一,能够较好地体现区域可持续发展态势.文章运用生态足迹方法对武汉市1995年、2000 年、2005年自然资本消长情况进行了量化研究、对比分析,研究结果表明:武汉市1995年、2000 年、2005年的自然资本需求和供给比例分别达到18.402∶1、20.765∶1、27.276∶1,供需矛盾显著;人均生态赤字分别达到2.4206 hm2·人-1、2.5163 hm2·人-1、2.9009 hm2·人-1,呈逐年上升趋势,成为制约武汉市可持续发展的瓶颈之一.生态用地类型分析显示,耕地、水域、化石能源用地赤字明显,应作为武汉市改善自然资本状况重点关注的对象.文章提出了倡导市民合理消费,同时健全绿色保障制度体系、优化城市生态服务功能等对策和措施,旨在为武汉市实现可持续发展提供依据.     

黄河源头生态环境变化的遥感监测及驱动因素

利用1990年、2000年和2004年的TM卫星影像数据研究表明,近10 a来,黄河源头玛多县生态环境状况变化剧烈,主要表现为沼泽、滩涂、河流、湖泊等湿地萎缩干涸,所占比例持续减少,表明水源涵养力减弱.同时,沙地、盐碱地和不宜林草荒地等劣质土地的增加使天然草地破碎化程度加大;而天然草地、林地和宜林草荒地比例持续增加,说明在21世纪初以来的暖湿化气候背景下,黄河源头-玛多县生态环境呈良性发展态势.分析认为气温、降水、蒸发、冻土等自然因素,以及超裁过牧、滥采乱挖和草地鼠害等人类活动是导致黄河源头生态环境变化的共同驱动因素,其中又以气候因子为主导,与冻土环境及水文条件相互影响.     

Land use change around protected areas: management to balance human needs and ecological function.

Protected areas throughout the world are key for conserving biodiversity, and land use is key for providing food, fiber, and other ecosystem services essential for human sustenance. As land use change isolates protected areas from their surrounding landscapes, the challenge is to identify management opportunities that maintain ecological function while minimizing restrictions on human land use. Building on the case studies in this Invited Feature and on ecological principles, we identify opportunities for regional land management that maintain both ecological function in protected areas and human land use options, including preserving crucial habitats and migration corridors, and reducing dependence of local human populations on protected area resources. Identification of appropriate and effective management opportunities depends on clear definitions of: (1) the biodiversity attributes of concern; (2) landscape connections to delineate particular locations with strong ecological interactions between the protected area and its surrounding landscape; and (3) socioeconomic dynamics that determine current and future use of land resources in and around the protected area.