A Flexible Global Warming Index for Use in an Integrated Approach to Climate Change Assessment

Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house gas (GHG) relative to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO₂). Under the Kyoto Protocol, GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance, however, a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use, and the economic gains from its adoption must be significant. In this paper, we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs, which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When the two concepts are linked in this way, the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant, and more importantly, they are not uniformly distributed across different regions.

The Precautionary Principle as a Robust Cost-Effectiveness Problem

This paper offers an interpretation of the precautionary principle in terms of a safety target that a decision-maker has to reach at a minimal cost in a robust way. A two-period model is used. The precautionary principle corresponds to a situation in which the decision-maker, facing an ex ante indecision, is not able to reach a safe target from the initial condition in a worst-case framework. However, he can efficiently succeed whenever the uncertainty at the second period is revealed to him. An example coping with the management of a renewable resource illustrates the general results of the paper.

Disequilibrium and Indivisibility of Pollution Control Equipment Under a Permit-Trading System: A Case Study of Kao-Hsiung and Ping-Tung Counties in Taiwan

A mixed-integer programming model that minimizes the social abatement cost is used to investigate whether a market equilibrium condition could be reached in a newly proposed permit-trading market for nitrogen oxide control in Taiwan. Unlike in previous studies, unit pollution abatement cost is determined endogenously by incorporating technology adoption as a binary decision variable. The results show that when technologies are lumpy and irreversible, disequilibrium might occur due to firms’ inability to manage their emission levels after installing equipment with fixed size and control capacity.

Probabilistic Modelling of Cattle Farm Distribution in Australia

A probabilistic Bayesian method called weights of evidence (WofE) was used to develop a synthetic dataset of cattle farm locations at a national scale across Australia. The synthetic dataset was required for the modelling of livestock movements with a view to assessing biosecurity implications. The WofE method is based on the analysis of spatial relationships between evidential patterns with respect to an event, such as the actual location of a farm. The evidential patterns of cattle farms were derived from maps of land use, land tenure, drainage systems, roads, settlements and long-term averaged rainfall. These evidential patterns were used for delineating and ranking land areas suitable for cattle farming. For each evidential pattern statistics such as a positive weight, a negative weight and a contrast were calculated for estimating the degree of correlation between the evidential patterns and known farm locations. The integrated evidential patterns of known farms were then used for estimating posterior probabilities and splitting land into five different classes according to its suitability for farming.

A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade

Rising populations and incomes throughout the world have boosted meat demand by over 75% in the last 20years, intensifying pressures on production systems and the natural resources to which they are linked. As a growing proportion of global meat production is traded, the environmental impacts of production become increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed. In this paper, we quantify the use of three important resources associated with industrial livestock production and trade—water, land, and nitrogen—using a country-specific model that combines trade, agronomic, biogeochemical, and hydrological data. Our model focuses on pigs and chickens, as these animals are raised predominantly in intensive systems using concentrated, compound feeds. The results describe the geographical patterns of environmental resource use due to meat production, trade, and consumption. We show that US feed, animal, and meat destined for export require almost as much nitrogen and land, and 20% more water, than products destined for domestic consumption. Model results also demonstrate that among various production factors, improvements in crop yields and animal feed conversion efficiencies result in the most significant reductions in environmental harm. By explicitly tracking the externalities of meat production, we hope to bolster suppliers’ accountability and provide better information to meat consumers.

On Limits to the Use of Linear Markov Strategies in Common Property Natural Resource Games

We derive conditions that must be satisfied by the primitives of the problem in order for an equilibrium in linear Markov strategies to exist in some common property natural resource differential games. These conditions impose restrictions on the admissible form of the natural growth function, given a benefit function, or on the admissible form of the benefit function, given a natural growth function.

A Numerical Model Simulating the Remediation of Hydrocarbon-Impacted Soils Using Low-Temperature Oxidation

A 2-D mathematical model to simulate the temperature distribution, coke formation, and change in residual extractable oil during remediation by low-temperature oxidation (LTO) process was developed. Simulation results indicate that the spacing between wells, pressure difference, and air-injection temperature and different well patterns influence the temperature distribution and consequently the level of remediation in the soil. The model results for coke formation and residual extractable oil distribution compared well with experimental results. The operating conditions—air-injection temperature of about 200°C, air-injection pressure of 6 to 10 kPa, air-extraction pressure of −110 Pa, and wells spaced 1 m apart installed in a nine-spot pattern—provide good remediation of hydrocarbons in soil by LTO process.

Evaluation of marine outfall with three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling

Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.

Water Consumption and Long-run Socio-economic Development: an Intervention and a Principal Component Analysis for the City of Milan

This paper analyses the evolution of water consumption in Milan during the twentieth century. However, dealing with a century time series raises some complicated statistic and econometric issues. To study the main research questions outlined by the literature, as the presence of consumption habits and the link between consumption and price, we use a quite original approach – based on intervention analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) – which seems to be more adequate than “regression-type” approaches to study a so long time series. Results indicate (1) how some events have modified the normal evolution of per-capita water consumption; (2) that per-capita water consumption is a very persistent series, namely, that water users should have well-developed consumption habits; (3) that per-capita consumption and water price present a strong negative correlation.

Environmental Objectives,Cost Efficiency,and Multivariate Stochastic Control

This paper is concerned with the cost efficiency in achieving the Swedish national air quality objectives under uncertainty. To realize an ecologically sustainable society, the parliament has approved a set of interim and long-term pollution reduction targets. However, there are considerable quantification uncertainties on the effectiveness of the proposed pollution reduction measures. In this paper, we develop a multivariate stochastic control framework to deal with the cost efficiency problem with multiple pollutants. Based on the cost and technological data collected by several national authorities, we explore the implications of alternative probabilistic constraints. It is found that a composite probabilistic constraint induces considerably lower abatement cost than separable probabilistic restrictions. The trend is reinforced by the presence of positive correlations between reductions in the multiple pollutants.

Comparison of Numerical and Experimental Results for the Evaluation of the Depollution Effectiveness of Photocatalytic Coverings in Street Canyons

Towards the aim of improving the air quality in the urban environment via the application of innovative TiO₂ based photocatalytic coverings, a field campaign took place within the frame of the EU PICADA project () to asses the expected depollution efficiency of such materials under realistic conditions. Furthermore, extensive numerical modeling was performed via the application of the RANS CFD code for microscale applications MIMO, in an effort to asses the sensitivity of the developing flow field and the corresponding dispersion mechanism and hence of the depollution efficiency of the PICADA products on a wide range of factors, with most notably the length of the street canyon, the thermal exchange between the heated street canyon walls and the air and the approaching wind direction. For the needs of the PICADA project a new, simple module had to be implemented into MIMO to be able to model the removal of NO_x from a street canyon whose walls have been treated with a photocatalytic product. The model simulations results presented in this paper, show that MIMO is indeed capable of predicting the effectiveness of the photocatalytic products in question. At the same time, they reveal a strong dependence of the developing flow and concentration fields inside the field site street canyon configuration on most of the aforementioned factors with most notably the direction of the approaching wind.

The long time scales of the climate–economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate–economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth.

A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

CO2 Capture and Storage with Leakage in an Energy-Climate Model

Geological CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is among the main near-term contenders for addressing the problem of global climate change. Even in a baseline scenario, with no comprehensive international climate policy, a moderate level of CCS technology is expected to be deployed, given the economic benefits associated with enhanced oil and gas recovery. With stringent climate change control, CCS technologies will probably be installed on an industrial scale. Geologically stored CO₂, however, may leak back to the atmosphere, which could render CCS ineffective as climate change reduction option. This article presents a long-term energy scenario study for Europe, in which we assess the significance for climate policy making of leakage of CO₂ artificially stored in underground geological formations. A detailed sensitivity analysis is performed for the CO₂ leakage rate with the bottom-up energy systems model MARKAL, enriched for this purpose with a large set of CO₂ capture technologies (in the power sector, industry, and for the production of hydrogen) and storage options (among which enhanced oil and gas recovery, enhanced coal bed methane recovery, depleted fossil fuel fields, and aquifers). Through a series of model runs, we confirm that a leakage rate of 0.1%/year seems acceptable for CCS to constitute a meaningful climate change mitigation option, whereas one of 1%/year is not. CCS is essentially no option to achieve CO₂ emission reductions when the leakage rate is as high as 1%/year, so more reductions need to be achieved through the use of renewables or nuclear power, or in sectors like industry and transport. We calculate that under strict climate control policy, the cumulative captured and geologically stored CO₂ by 2100 in the electricity sector, when the leakage rate is 0.1%/year, amounts to about 45,000 MtCO₂. Only a little over 10,000 MtCO₂ cumulative power-generation-related emissions are captured and stored underground by the end of the century when the leakage rate is 1%/year. Overall marginal CO₂ abatement costs increase from a few €/tCO₂ today to well over 150 €/tCO₂ in 2100, under an atmospheric CO₂ concentration constraint of 550 ppmv. Carbon costs in 2100 turn out to be about 40 €/tCO₂ higher when the annual leakage rate is 1%/year in comparison to when there is no CO₂ leakage. Irrespective of whether CCS deployment is affected by gradual CO₂ seepage, the annual welfare loss in Europe induced by the implementation of policies preventing “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (under our assumption, implying a climate stabilisation target of 550 ppmv CO₂ concentration) remains below 0.5% of GDP during the entire century.

Oasis land-use change and its environmental impact in Jinta Oasis, arid northwestern China

Land use change resulted in land degradation is a focus of research on global environmental changes and plays a significant role in the stability and economic development of oases in arid regions of China. Jinta Oasis, a typical oasis of temperate arid zone in northwestern China, was investigated to assess land-use change dynamics during 1988–2003 with the aid of satellite remote sensing and GIS, and to explore the interaction between these changes and oasis environment. Six land-use types were identified, namely: cropland, forestland, grassland, water, urban or built-up land, and barren land. The results indicate that cropland, urban/built-up land, and barren land increase greatly by 30.03, 13.35, and 15.52 km², respectively; but grassland and forestland areas decrease rapidly by 58.06, and 1.76 km², respectively. These results also show that obvious widespread changes in land-use occur within the whole oasis over the study period and result in severe problems of environmental degradation (i.e. land desertification, decline of groundwater, and vegetation degeneracy).     

Assessing the effects of dam building on land degradation in central Iran with Landsat LST and LULC time series

This study aimed to analyze the impact of Zayandehrood Dam on desertification using the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) in an arid environment in central Iran from 1987 to 2014. The LULC and LST images were calculated from Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI data, and their accuracies were assessed against reference data using error matrix and linear regression analysis. Results showed that salty and bare lands increased up to 57,302 ha, while agricultural lands declined substantially (28,275.58 ha) in the region. The changes in LULC classes resulted in dramatic variations in LST values. The average temperature showed a 5.03 °C increase, and the minimum temperature increased by 5.66 °C. LST had an increasing trend in bare lands (8.74 °C), poor rangelands (6.8 °C), agricultural lands (9.46 °C), salty lands (9.6 °C), and residential areas (3.18 °C) in this 27-year period. Rainfall and temperature trend analysis revealed that the main cause of these extreme changes in LULC and LST was largely attributed to the drying up of Zayandehrood River due to dam construction and allocating water mainly for industrial sectors. Results indicate that in addition to LULC changes, the spatio-temporal variations of LST can be used as an effective index in desertification assessment and monitoring in arid environments.     

Improving the effectiveness of planning EIA (PEIA) in China: Integrating planning and assessment during the preparation of Shenzhen's Master Urban Plan

The enactment and implementation of the 2003 EIA Law in China institutionalised the role of plan environmental impact assessment (PEIA). While the philosophy, methodology and mechanisms of PEIA have gradually permeated through the various levels of government with a positive effect on the process and outcome of urban planning, only a few cities in China have so far carried out PEIA as a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)-type procedure. One such case is the southern city of Shenzhen. During the past three decades, Shenzhen has grown from a small town to a large and booming city as China has successfully and rapidly developed its economy by adopting the “reform and open door” policy. In response to the challenges arising from the generally divergent processes of rapid urbanisation, economic transformation and environment protection, Shenzhen has incrementally adopted the SEA concept in developing the city's Master Urban Plan. As such, this paper reviews the effectiveness of PEIA in three ways:

• • 

  as a tool and process for achieving more sustainable and strategic planning;

• • 

  to determine the level of integration of SEA within the planning system; and,

• • 

  its effectiveness vis-à-vis implementation.

The implementation of PEIA within Shenzhen's Master Urban Plan offers important insights into the emergence of innovative practices in undertaking PEIA as well as theoretical contributions to the field, especially in exploring the relationship between PEIA and SEA and highlighting the central role of local governing institutions in SEA development.     

Study of heat exposure in the work environment in Jeddah

The present work was conducted to define the magnitude of the problem of heat exposure in Jeddah and the role of both the climatic and the industrial factors on the total heat load. Indoor heat exposure was studied in an industrial complex of 5 plants for cables' manufacturing. Outdoor heat exposure was studied in shaded and unshaded operations in Jeddah Islamic Port (JIP). The heat exposure parameters, including air temperature (Ta), wet bulb temperature (Tw), and globe temperature (Tg), as well as the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress index, the relative humidity and the air velocity, were assessed at representative locations. Results of the study indicated that:

Urban green area provides refuge for native small mammal biodiversity in a rapidly expanding city in Ghana

Urbanization is a key driver of global biodiversity loss. Although sub-Saharan African countries are experiencing unprecedented urbanization and urban expansion, very little is known about how this impacts tropical biodiversity. Here, we assessed the effects of urban expansion and urban green space on local small mammal species diversity in Accra, Ghana. We surveyed small mammals in the University of Ghana botanical garden, an urban green area (UGA) and adjoining built-up environment (BE) and compared the results with baseline data (BLD) collected when large areas of the current city still remained mostly undeveloped. The methodology involved live-trapping using Sherman collapsible live-traps. Our data showed higher small mammal abundance and diversity in the UGA than BE. Similarity of species composition was higher between UGA and BLD than between BE and BLD. The small mammal species captured in BE (the rodents Mastomys erythroleucus, Rattus rattus, and Arvicanthis rufinus, and the shrew Crocidura olivieri) are known to easily adapt to human-modified landscapes. Our results suggest that urbanization negatively influenced the abundance, diversity, and community composition of small mammals. Efforts should be directed towards the integration of urban green areas into urban land development planning in developing countries in order to conserve local wildlife and ecological services that enhance the quality of urban life.     

Urban stream syndrome in a small,lightly developed watershed: a statistical analysis of water chemistry parameters,land use patterns,and natural sources

The relationships among land use patterns, geology, soil, and major solute concentrations in stream water for eight tributaries of the Kayaderosseras Creek watershed in Saratoga County, NY, were investigated using Pearson correlation coefficients and multivariate regression analysis. Sub-watersheds corresponding to each sampling site were delineated, and land use patterns were determined for each of the eight sub-watersheds using GIS. Four land use categories (urban development, agriculture, forests, and wetlands) constituted more than 99 % of the land in the sub-watersheds. Eleven water chemistry parameters were highly and positively correlated with each other and urban development. Multivariate regression models indicated urban development was the most powerful predictor for the same eleven parameters (conductivity, TN, TP, NO $_{3}^-$ , Cl^?, HCO $_{3}^-$ , SO $_{4}^{2-}$ , Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺). Adjusted R ² values, ranging from 19 to 91 %, indicated that these models explained an average of 64 % of the variance in these 11 parameters across the samples and 70 % when Mg²⁺ was omitted. The more common R ², ranging from 29 to 92 %, averaged 68 % for these 11 parameters and 72 % when Mg²⁺ was omitted. Water quality improved most with forest coverage in stream watersheds. The strong associations between water quality variables and urban development indicated an urban source for these 11 water quality parameters at all eight sampling sites was likely, suggesting that urban stream syndrome can be detected even on a relatively small scale in a lightly developed area. Possible urban sources of Ca²⁺ and HCO $_{3}^-$ are suggested.