中国工业部门生态效益分析

借鉴世界企业永续发展委员会（WBCSD）提出的生态效益指标体系,结合社会价值因子构建了中国工业部门生态效益指标体系,利用因子分析模型研究了中国2006年工业部门生态效益及其主要影响因子,并按照工业生态效益特征将39个工业部门划分为4个类型。结果表明：中国工业部门生态效益的影响因素可以归纳为能源消耗-污染因子、水资源消耗-污染因子、经济社会效益因子 中国工业部门生态效益差异显著,机械设备制造业、电子属于生态效益最优的工业部门,以矿产品采掘与加工为基础的工业部门整体表现出高能耗、高污染、低效益,造纸及纸制品业生态效益最差。因子分析法较全面的反映了中国工业部门的生态效益,提高工业部门生态效益的建议可为中国工业的可持续发展提供决策依据。     

Integrating eco-efficiency and eco-effectiveness into the design of sustainable industrial systems in China

As an important tool for environment management, eco-efficiency has been widely applied, but eco-effectiveness has only made progress on eco-design and life cycle management in recent years. Few have attempted to integrate eco-efficiency and eco-effectiveness into sustainable industrial systems. In a new framework integrating eco-efficiency and eco-effectiveness, both concepts can find unique roles and complement each other in industrial ecosystems to dissolve conflicts between industry and the environment. This article provides a case study of China in which eco-efficiency indicators (energy, water and waste utilisation intensity) have demonstrated great progress in China, but eco-efficiency cannot stop the increasing release of pollutants and their accumulating impact on ecological life-support systems. China must integrate eco-effectiveness and eco-efficiency into concrete sustainable development strategies, questioning whether limited resources are being used correctly. Both eco-efficiency and eco-effectiveness are identified as important indicators in the development of sustainable industrial systems. In the framework of sustainable industrial systems, eco-effectiveness must begin to play a more important role.     

Quantification of energy related industrial eco-efficiency of China

Improving eco-efficiency is propitious for saving resources and reducing emissions, and has become a popular route to sustainable development. We define two energy-related eco-efficiencies: energy efficiency (ENE) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-related eco-efficiency (GEE) using energy consumption and the associated GHG emissions as the environmental impacts. Using statistical data, we analyze China??s energy consumption and GHG emissions by industrial subsystem and sector, and estimate the ENE and GEE values for China in 2007 as 4.871×10⁷ US$/PJ and 4.26×10⁸ US$/TgCO₂eq, respectively. Industry is the primary contributing subsystem of China??s economy, contributing 45.2% to the total economic production, using 79.6% of the energy consumed, and generating 91.4% of the total GHG emissions. We distinguish the individual contributions of the 39 industrial sectors to the national economy, overall energy consumption, and GHG emissions, and estimate their energyrelated eco-efficiencies. The results show that although ferrous metal production contributes only 3.5% to the national industrial economy, it consumes the most industrial energy (20% of total), contributes 16% to the total industrial global warming potential (GWP), and ranks third in GHG emissions. The power and heat sector ranks first in GHG emissions and contributes one-third of the total industrial GWP, although it only consumes about 8% of total industrial energy and, like ferrous metal production, contributes 3.5% to the national economy. The ENE of the ferrous metal and power and heat sectors are only 8 and 2.1×10⁷ US$/PJ, while the GEE for these two sectors are 9 and 4×10⁴ US$/GgCO₂eq, respectively; these are nearly the lowest ENE and GEE values among all 39 industry sectors. Finally, we discuss the possibility of ecoefficiency improvement through a comparison with other countries.     

产业园生态效率评价——以九发生态产业园为例

生态产业园区的发展和评价已成为包括我国在内的全球产业可持续发展研究的热点领域。生态效率指标强调以较少资源投入和较低污染排放生产更多较高质量的产品,能同时评价经济效益和环境效益,符合人类可持续发展目标,现已是指导和评价生态工业园可持续发展建设的有效工具。本文应用生态效率理论和方法,对2004年九发生态产业园的运行情况进行了效率评价和生态功能探讨,并与同年全国平均生态效率指标进行了对比,发现九发生态产业园虽然产业链网较完善,但系统实际运行的生态效率高低不一。其中,单位原材料产出率和单位废水排放产出率指标明显低于全国平均水平,表明系统的生态功能发挥不足。因此,需进一步提高九发生态产业园的资源利用效率和能源使用效率,从而增加其经济效益和环境效益、促进其可持续发展。     

Eco-efficiency of urban material metabolism: a case study in Xiamen,China

In this research, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model of measuring the eco-efficiency of urban material metabolism has been constructed based on the urban material input and output indicators. According to the data of Xiamen from 1985 to 2007, an empirical study was conducted to measure the eco-efficiency of urban material metabolism using DEA program. The results showed a general downtrend of Xiamen's eco-efficiency of material metabolism from 1985 to 2007, in which there were 15 efficient years and eight inefficient years. The eco-efficiency and urbanization rate of Xiamen was remarkably negatively correlated. Moreover, the results revealed at 4 years (1995, 2001, 2002 and 2003) there had been undesirable output slack (environmental pollution), and at 2 years (1991 and 1999) there had been desirable output slack (GDP), and at 8 years there had been input slack (water, land, food and energy), especially for water and energy. Finally, some suggestions on promoting the eco-efficiency of urban material metabolism were put forward.     

中国能源消费导致的CO2排放量的差异特征分析

运用一种不产生残差的方法——对数平均迪氏指数法LMDI(logarithmicmeanDivisiaindex),对中国部分省份、区域能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量进行了分解分析。将二氧化碳排放总量的变化分解成五个主要影响因素,即化石燃料的排放系数、能源消费结构、能源强度、人均GDP和人口总数。研究表明我国各省(地区)的二氧化碳排放量在1996年后呈现零(或负)增长趋势,主要影响因素是能源强度的提高;各省(地区)的二氧化碳排放量地区差异显著。因此,要在全国实现二氧化碳排放量的总体减排,应从提高能源利用效率,调整产业结构,消除地区发展的不平衡,逐步改善能源消费结构等方面考虑。     

2003—2010年中国对流层CO2时空分布研究

利用2003年到2010年的美国宇航局(National Aeronautics and Space Administration,NASA)的AIRS(Atmosphere InfraRed Sounder)官方反演的对流层中层(500 hPa)左右一段气柱内的CO2体积混合比产品分析中国地区对流层的CO2体积分数分布时空变化特征。所用数据是对AIRS L3产品2°×2.5°网格数据进行处理分析得到。经过对这8年的观测数据(2003年1月—2010年12月)的数据分析研究发现:中国地区平均CO2的体积分数在空间分布上极不平衡,总体高值集中于北部。CO2对流层中层的高值区集中在35°—45°N,形成东北平原、内蒙古中西部地区、塔克拉玛干沙漠和塔里木盆地4个高值中心,而云南地区和西藏南部上空的CO2值偏低。与中国地区8年平均CO2体积分数变化特征大体一致,每月(8年平均值)分布趋势也呈北部地区和东部地区高而南方体积分数值相对低的特征。CO2月平均体积分数的最高值一般出现在每年的4月或者5月,而每年的最低值则出现在每年的1月。对流层中层CO2体积分数呈现明显季节变化,总体上来说,从2003年到2010年这8年中,平均春、夏两季对流层中CO2含量较高,而秋、冬季CO2低于春夏两季。     

PM2.5 over North China based on MODIS AOD and effect of meteorological elements during 2003‒2015

• The Taihang Mountains was the boundary between high and low pollution areas. • There were one high value center for PM_2.5 pollution and two low value centers. • In 2004, 2009 and after 2013, PM_2.5 concentration was relatively low. Over the past 40 years, PM_2.5 pollution in North China has become increasingly serious and progressively exposes the densely populated areas to pollutants. However, due to limited ground data, it is challenging to estimate accurate PM_2.5 exposure levels, further making it unfavorable for the prediction and prevention of PM_2.5 pollutions. This paper therefore uses the mixed effect model to estimate daily PM_2.5 concentrations of North China between 2003 and 2015 with ground observation data and MODIS AOD satellite data. The tempo-spatial characteristics of PM_2.5 and the influence of meteorological elements on PM_2.5 is discussed with EOF and canonical correlation analysis respectively. Results show that overall R² is 0.36 and the root mean squared predicted error was 30.1 μg/m³ for the model prediction. Our time series analysis showed that, the Taihang Mountains acted as a boundary between the high and low pollution areas in North China; while the northern part of Henan Province, the southern part of Hebei Province and the western part of Shandong Province were the most polluted areas. Although, in 2004, 2009 and dates after 2013, PM_2.5 concentrations were relatively low. Meteorological/topography conditions, that include high surface humidity of area in the range of 34°‒40°N and 119°‒124°E, relatively low boundary layer heights, and southerly and easterly winds from the east and north area were common factors attributed to haze in the most polluted area. Overall, the spatial distribution of increasingly concentrated PM_2.5 pollution in North China are consistent with the local emission level, unfavorable meteorological conditions and topographic changes.     

A study on the spatial distribution of nitrogen and phosphorus balance, and regional nitrogen flow through crop production

The spatial distribution patterns of the nitrogen and phosphorus input/intake amounts in crop production within two small basins are examined, based upon a cropping unit distribution map that is obtained from remote sensing data analysis. Firstly, we examine the availability and suitability of approaches to the spatial distribution analysis of cultivation patterns classified from material flow characteristics of crop production using seasonal remote-sensing data. Secondly, material flow units in crop production are grouped according to the cultivation patterns obtained from the remote-sensing data analysis. Consequently, the spatial patterns of the amounts of both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs/intakes through crop production on farmland are examined and their spatial distribution maps are prepared according to the material flow units. In addition, we developed a nitrogen flow and runoff model and the model is simulated based on the examination of the results of spatial distribution patterns of the material flow units. The annual nitrogen runoff from small catchments, where various crops are cultivated, varies from 2.7 kg ha(-1) year(-1) to 108 kg ha(-1) year(-1) and the annual balanced losses of nitrogen in small catchments varied from -30 kg ha(-1) year(-1) to 101 kg ha(-1) year(-1). Also, the monthly changes in soil nitrogen of each material flow unit is estimated at -55 kg ha(-1) as a maximum decrease and 114 kg ha(-1) as a maximum increase. These results indicate that the spatial distribution patterns of nutrient input and intake through agricultural activities should be considered when analyzing the material flows and nutritient movement in soil-water systems in rural areas for watershed environmental control and regional agricultural management.     

Error propagation in spatial modeling of public health data: a simulation approach using pediatric blood lead level data for Syracuse,New York

Lead poisoning produces serious health problems, which are worse when a victim is younger. The US government and society have tried to prevent lead poisoning, especially since the 1970s; however, lead exposure remains prevalent. Lead poisoning analyses frequently use georeferenced blood lead level data. Like other types of data, these spatial data may contain uncertainties, such as location and attribute measurement errors, which can propagate to analysis results. For this paper, simulation experiments are employed to investigate how selected uncertainties impact regression analyses of blood lead level data in Syracuse, New York. In these simulations, location error and attribute measurement error, as well as a combination of these two errors, are embedded into the original data, and then these data are aggregated into census block group and census tract polygons. These aggregated data are analyzed with regression techniques, and comparisons are reported between the regression coefficients and their standard errors for the error added simulation results and the original results. To account for spatial autocorrelation, the eigenvector spatial filtering method and spatial autoregressive specifications are utilized with linear and generalized linear models. Our findings confirm that location error has more of an impact on the differences than does attribute measurement error, and show that the combined error leads to the greatest deviations. Location error simulation results show that smaller administrative units experience more of a location error impact, and, interestingly, coefficients and standard errors deviate more from their true values for a variable with a low level of spatial autocorrelation. These results imply that uncertainty, especially location error, has a considerable impact on the reliability of spatial analysis results for public health data, and that the level of spatial autocorrelation in a variable also has an impact on modeling results.     

Evaluation of Biogeographic Classification Schemes for Conservation Planning: Application to New Zealand's Coastal Marine Environment

Abstract:  For many regions worldwide, multiple and often contrasting biogeographic classifications exist that are derived from a variety of taxa and techniques. This presents a challenge for managers who must choose appropriate large-scale spatial frameworks for systematic conservation planning. We demonstrate how systematically collected community data can be used to evaluate existing biogeographic classifications, identify the most appropriate metric for biogeographic patterns seen in other taxonomic groups, and develop an independent biogeographic classification scheme for systematic conservation planning. We evaluated 6 existing biogeographic classifications for New Zealand's nearshore marine environment with community-similarity metrics derived from abundance and presence–absence data for macroalgae (107 species) and mobile macroinvertebrates (44 species). The concordance between community metrics and the previous classifications was high, as indicated by a high multivariate classification success (CS) (74.3–98.3%). Subsequently, we carried out an independent classification analysis on each community metric to identify biogeographic units within a hierarchical spatial framework. The classification derived from macroalgal presence–absence data achieved the highest CS and could be used as a mesoscale classification scheme in which 11 regional groupings (i.e., bioregions) (CS = 73.8–84.8%) are nested within northern and southern biogeographic provinces (CS = 90.3–98.7%). These techniques can be used in systematic conservation planning to inform the design of representative and comprehensive networks of marine protected areas through evaluation of the current coverage of marine reserves in each bioregion. Currently, 0.22% of the territorial sea around mainland New Zealand is protected in no-take marine protected areas in which 0–1.5% of each bioregion represented.     

2003—2010年中国对流层CO2时空分布研究

利用2003年到2010年的美国宇航局（National Aeronautics and Space Administration,NASA）的AIRS（Atmosphere InfraRed Sounder）官方反演的对流层中层（500 hPa）左右一段气柱内的CO2体积混合比产品分析中国地区对流层的CO2体积分数分布时空变化特征。所用数据是对AIRS L3产品2°×2.5°网格数据进行处理分析得到。经过对这8年的观测数据（2003年1月—2010年12月）的数据分析研究发现：中国地区平均CO2的体积分数在空间分布上极不平衡,总体高值集中于北部。CO2对流层中层的高值区集中在35°—45°N,形成东北平原、内蒙古中西部地区、塔克拉玛干沙漠和塔里木盆地4个高值中心,而云南地区和西藏南部上空的CO2值偏低。与中国地区8年平均CO2体积分数变化特征大体一致,每月（8年平均值）分布趋势也呈北部地区和东部地区高而南方体积分数值相对低的特征。CO2月平均体积分数的最高值一般出现在每年的4月或者5月,而每年的最低值则出现在每年的1月。对流层中层CO2体积分数呈现明显季节变化,总体上来说,从2003年到2010年这8年中,平均春、夏两季对流层中CO2含量较高,而秋、冬季CO2低于春夏两季。     

中国南方稻田土壤汞含量及潜在危害评价

选择我国南方水稻主产区安徽、浙江、湖南、湖北以及广西5个省,采集213个稻田土壤样品,探究我国南方稻田土壤中汞的空间分布特征与土壤理化参数(如p H值和有机质)的相关关系及汞富集的潜在危害。结果表明:不同省份的稻田土壤汞含量存在显著的差异(P0.05,n=213),含量范围是0.029~0.326 mg·kg~(-1)(干重),平均值为(0.094±0.036)mg·kg~(-1),与农用地土壤环境质量标准0.30 mg·kg~(-1)(GB15618—1995)相比,除湖北省以外均有轻度汞污染。Pearson相关性分析表明,稻田土壤中的汞含量与有机质含量呈显著正相关关系(P0.01,r=0.445),说明适度偏高的有机质有利于土壤汞的富集。不同省份稻田土壤潜在危害等级除浙江省外均在轻微到中等的范围内,浙江省的为强等级。     

Representation of critical natural capital in China

Traditional means of assessing representativeness of conservation value in protected areas depend on measures of structural biodiversity. The effectiveness of priority conservation areas at representing critical natural capital (CNC) (i.e., an essential and renewable subset of natural capital) remains largely unknown. We analyzed the representativeness of CNC‐conservation priority areas in national nature reserves (i.e., nature reserves under jurisdiction of the central government with large spatial distribution across the provinces) in China with a new biophysical‐based composite indicator approach. With this approach, we integrated the net primary production of vegetation, topography, soil, and climate variables to map and rank terrestrial ecosystems capacities to generate CNC. National nature reserves accounted for 6.7% of CNC‐conservation priority areas across China. Considerable gaps (35.2%) existed between overall (or potential) CNC representativeness nationally and CNC representation in national reserves, and there was significant spatial heterogeneity of representativeness in CNC‐conservation priority areas at the regional and provincial levels. For example, the best and worst representations were, respectively, 13.0% and 1.6% regionally and 28.9% and 0.0% provincially. Policy in China is transitioning toward the goal of an ecologically sustainable civilization. We identified CNC‐conservation priority areas and conservation gaps and thus contribute to the policy goals of optimization of the national nature reserve network and the demarcation of areas critical to improving the representativeness and conservation of highly functioning areas of natural capital. Moreover, our method for assessing representation of CNC can be easily adapted to other large‐scale networks of conservation areas because few data are needed, and our model is relatively simple.     

Permitted emissions of major air pollutants from coal-fired power plants in China based on best available control technology

Based on the activity level and technical information of coal-fired power-generating units (CFPGU) obtained in China from 2011 to 2015, we, 1) analyzed the time and spatial distribution of SO₂ and NO_x emission performance of CFPGUs in China; 2) studied the impact of installed capacity, sulfur content of coal combustion, and unit operation starting time on CFPGUs’ pollutant emission performance; and 3) proposed the SO₂ and NO_x emission performance standards for coal-fired power plants based on the best available control technology. Our results show that: 1) the larger the capacity of a CFPGU, the higher the control level and the faster the improvement; 2) the CFPGUs in the developed eastern regions had significantly lower SO₂ and NO_x emission performance values than those in other provinces due to better economic and technological development and higher environmental management levels; 3) the SO₂ and NO_x emission performance of the Chinese thermal power industry was significantly affected by the single-unit capacity, coal sulfur content, and unit operation starting time; and 4) based on the achievability analysis of best available pollution control technology, we believe that the CFPGUs’ SO₂ emission performance reference values should be 0.34 g/kWh for active units in general areas, 0.8 g/kWh for active units in high-sulfur coal areas, and 0.13 g/kWh for newly built units and active units in key areas. In addition, the NO_x emission performance reference values should be 0.35 g/kWh for active units in general areas and 0.175 g/kWh for new units and active units in key areas.

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Forecasting industrial emissions: a monetary approach vs. a physical approach

Forecasts of industrial emissions provide a basis for impact assessment and development planning. To date, most studies have assumed that industrial emissions are simply coupled to production value at a given stage of technical progress. It has been argued that the monetary method tends to overestimate pollution loads because it is highly influenced by market prices and fails to address spatial development schemes. This article develops a land use-based environmental performance index (L-EPI) that treats the industrial land areas as a dependent variable for pollution emissions. The basic assumption of the method is that at a planning level, industrial land use change can represent the change in industrial structure and production yield. This physical metric provides a connection between the state-of-the-art and potential impacts of future development and thus avoids the intrinsic pitfalls of the industrial Gross Domestic Product-based approach. Both methods were applied to examine future industrial emissions at the planning area of Dalian Municipality, North-west China, under a development scheme provided by the urban master plan. The results suggested that the LEPI method is highly reliable and applicable for the estimation and explanation of the spatial variation associated with industrial emissions.     

A study on the Spatial Distribution of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Balance, and Regional Nitrogen Flow Through Crop Production

The spatial distribution patterns of the nitrogen and phosphorus input/intake amounts in crop production within two small basins are examined, based upon a cropping unit distribution map that is obtained from remote sensing data analysis. Firstly, we examine the availability and suitability of approaches to the spatial distribution analysis of cultivation patterns classified from material flow characteristics of crop production using seasonal remote-sensing data. Secondly, material flow units in crop production are grouped according to the cultivation patterns obtained from the remote-sensing data analysis. Consequently, the spatial patterns of the amounts of both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs/intakes through crop production on farmland are examined and their spatial distribution maps are prepared according to the material flow units. In addition, we developed a nitrogen flow and runoff model and the model is simulated based on the examination of the results of spatial distribution patterns of the material flow units. The annual nitrogen runoff from small catchments, where various crops are cultivated, varies from 2.7 kg ha^–1 year^–1 to 108 kg ha^–1 year^–1 and the annual balanced losses of nitrogen in small catchments varied from –30 kg ha^–1 year^–1 to 101 kg ha^–1 year^–1. Also, the monthly changes in soil nitrogen of each material flow unit is estimated at –55 kg ha^–1 as a maximum decrease and 114 kg ha^–1 as a maximum increase. These results indicate that the spatial distribution patterns of nutrient input and intake through agricultural activities should be considered when analyzing the material flows and nutritient movement in soil–water systems in rural areas for watershed environmental control and regional agricultural management.     

不同地理分布区中国林蛙的身体特征变异

采用形态比较学和数值分类相结合,对中国山西、辽宁、内蒙古等地的中国林蛙各居群的身体特征进行探讨.通过对大量标本的测量分析,结果认为:随着地理经纬度的变化和生境的转移,林蛙的各项身体特征表现出一定程度的变异.愈靠近东北林蛙分布区,其个体愈大,各项数据比对差异明显,从而可初步界定中国林蛙与东北林蛙的分界线.     

Effects of publication bias on conservation planning

Conservation planners need reliable information on spatial patterns of biodiversity. However, existing data sets are skewed because some ecosystems, taxa, and locations are underrepresented. We determined how many articles have been published in recent decades on the biodiversity of different countries and their constituent provinces. We searched the Web of Science catalogues Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) for biodiversity-related articles published from 1993 to 2016 that included country and province names. We combined data on research publication frequency with other provincial-scale factors hypothesized to affect the likelihood of research activity (i.e., economic development, human presence, infrastructure, and remoteness). Areas that appeared understudied relative to the biodiversity expected based on site climate likely have been inaccessible to researchers for reasons, notably armed conflict. Geographic publication bias is of most concern in the most remote areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Our provincial-scale model may help compensate for publication biases in conservation planning by revealing the spatial extent of research needs and the low cost of redoing this analysis annually.     

农业化肥污染的政策成因及对策分析

化肥污染是农村面源污染的重要组成部分,如何解决该问题已经成为中国学者热议的话题。为了定量分析国家政策对化肥过量施用的影响,基于我国1998—2007年各省市的面板数据,借助STATA软件包和化肥施用效用模型假设,对其进行了回归分析。结果表明：一是随着经济发展水平的提升,农业化肥污染仍会不断加剧。二是多年来国家给予化肥企业＂优惠＋补贴＋限价＂的化肥行业发展政策是化肥过量施用的根本政策原因,当前国家惠农政策有助于降低化肥的需求量。三是当国家取消对化肥企业的补贴政策,继续当前的惠农政策时,则农民直补政策需以农民有利于环境的施肥方式为前提。四是若国家继续当前化肥行业发展政策和惠农政策,则视国家给予化肥企业的补贴确定一个直补额度,当对农民直补小于该额度时,则直补有利于农民减少对化肥的需求;但当直补超过这一额度时,农民则会增加对化肥的需求,因此后者需以农民施肥行为有利于环境为前提。