NMOC,ozone, and organic aerosol in the southeastern United States, 1999–2007: 2. Ozone trends and sensitivity to NMOC emissions in Atlanta,Georgia

Non-methane organic carbon (NMOC) measurements made in Atlanta, Georgia from 1999–2007 are used with nitrogen oxide (NO_x or NO_y) and ozone (O₃) data to investigate relationships between O₃ precursors and peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations in the city. Data from a WNW-to-ENE transect of sites illustrate that the mean urban peak 8-hour O₃ excess constitutes about 20% of the peak 8-hour O₃ measured at the area-wide maximum O₃ site when air-mass movement is from the northwest quadrant; local influence is potentially greater on days with more stagnation or recirculation. The peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations in Atlanta increase as (1) surface temperature (T), ambient NMOC and NO_y concentrations, and previous-day peak O₃ concentrations increase, and as (2) relative humidity, surface wind speeds, and ratios of NMOC-to-NO_y decrease. An observation-based statistical model is introduced to relate area-wide peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations to ambient NMOC and NO_y concentrations, while accounting for the non-linear dependences of peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations on meteorological factors. On the majority of days when the area-wide peak 8-hour O₃ exceeds 75 ppbv, meteorologically-adjusted peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations increase as ambient NMOC concentrations increase (NMOC sensitive) and ambient NO_y concentrations decrease. This result contrasts with regional conditions in which O₃ formation appears to be NO_x-sensitive in character. The results offer observationally-based information of relevance to O₃ management strategies in the Atlanta area, potentially contributing to “weight-of-evidence” assessments.     

Ozone Dosage-Crop Loss Function for Alfalfa: A Standardized Method for Assessing Crop Losses from Air Pollutants

Ozone dose-crop loss conversion functions for alfalfa (Medicago sativa, L. var. Moapa 69) yield reduction and defoliation were developed using standardized field plots within an ambient O₃ gradient in the South Coast Air Basin. Seasonal yields and defoliation values were tested with O₃ dose, average daily maximum temperature, average daily minimum temperature, and average daily relative humidity in regression analyses to determine significant functional relationships. Only the ambient O₃ dose variable was found to have a significant effect on alfalfa yield or defoliation (yield, r = –0.827, t-slope = 3.900**; defoliation, r = –0.890, t-slope = 5.190**). The ozone dose-crop loss conversion functions were calculated by converting the dose-response functions to dose-percent reduction functions.     

The impact of ambient ozone on mountain spruce forests in the Czech Republic as indicated by malondialdehyde

Malondialdehyde (MDA), a product of lipid peroxidation and biomarker of oxidative stress, is measured over the long term in spruce Picea abies needles under real conditions in three Czech mountain border areas. The trends presented collate the MDA content in spruce needles with ambient ozone, temperature and precipitation as casual, and defoliation as a subsequent factor for the period 1994-2006. We have found the overall decreasing trends in MDA and defoliation. The highest MDA and defoliation are recorded in the Jizerske, the lowest in the Krusne hory Mts. Out of the examined variables the MDA is predicted best by mean temperature in vegetation season, median of O₃ concentrations and AOT40; these three variables account for 34% of MDA1 and 36% of MDA2 variability. Our hypothesis that higher ambient O₃ exposure results in higher MDA contents in P. abies needles under real conditions has not been approved.     

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Modeling and Prediction of Ambient Ozone Concentrations

ABSTRACT

The deterministic modeling of ambient O₃ concentrations is difficult because of the complexity of the atmospheric system in terms of the number of chemical species; the availability of accurate, time-resolved emissions data; and the required rate constants. However, other complex systems have been successfully approximated using artificial neural networks (ANNs). In this paper, ANNs are used to model and predict ambient O₃ concentrations based on a limited number of measured hydrocarbon species, NO_x compounds, temperature, and radiant energy. In order to examine the utility of these approaches, data from the Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas (COAST) program in Houston, TX, have been used. In this study, 53 hydrocarbon compounds, along with O₃, nitrogen oxides, and meteorological data were continuously measured during summer 1993. Steady-state ANN models were developed to examine the ability of these models to predict current O₃ concentrations from measured VOC and NO concentrations. To predict the future concentrations of O₃, dynamic models were also explored and were used for extraction of chemical information such as reactivity estimations for the VOC species.

The steady-state model produced an approximation of O₃ data and demonstrated the functional relationship between O₃ and VOC-NO_x concentrations. The dynamic models were able to the adequately predict the O₃ concentration and behavior of VOC-NO_x-O₃ system a number of hourly intervals into the future. For 3 hr into the future, O₃ concentration could be predicted with a root-mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.21 ppb. Extending the models further in time led to an RMSE of 11.46 ppb for 5-hr-ahead values. This prediction capability could be useful in determining when control actions are needed to maintain measured concentrations within acceptable value ranges.     

Effects of Chronic Doses of Ozone on Field-Grown Loblolly Pine: Seedling Responses in the First Year

A study was designed to examine responses of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) to chronic exposure to ozone (O₃) in the field. Seedlings of four full-sib families of loblolly pine were planted in a field near Raleigh, NC, and exposed daily (May 27 to October 24, 1985) in open-top chambers to O₃ ranging from 0.5 to 1.96 times the O₃ concentration in non-filtered (NF) air. One-fourth of the plants in each plot were removed during each of two harvests (August and October) to measure effects of O₃ on plant growth. Plants of each family exhibited foliar symptoms characteristic of O3 injury after five months of exposure to any greater-than-ambient O₃ concentration, and one family exhibited symptoms after five months of exposure to NF air. Ozone dose-plant response relationships were quantified by regression for stem height, stem diameter, biomass, and other plant morphological and yield characteristics. All relationships were linear for three families, but one family exhibited no significant growth response relationship of O₃ dose. Dose-response equations suggest a maximum growth suppression of 10 percent for NF air compared to charcoal-filtered air (i.e., 0.5 × NF) in the first season of exposure.     

Tree and stand growth of mature Norway spruce and European beech under long-term ozone fumigation

In a 50- to 70-year-old mixed stand of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Germany, tree cohorts have been exposed to double ambient ozone (2×O₃) from 2000 through 2007 and can be compared with trees in the same stand under the ambient ozone regime (1×O₃). Annual diameter growth, allocation pattern, stem form, and stem volume were quantified at the individual tree and stand level. Ozone fumigation induced a shift in the resource allocation into height growth at the expense of diameter growth. This change in allometry leads to rather cone-shaped stem forms and reduced stem stability in the case of spruce, and even neiloidal stem shapes in the case of beech. Neglect of such ozone-induced changes in stem shape may lead to a flawed estimation of volume growth. On the stand level, 2×O₃ caused, on average, a decrease of 10.2 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in European beech.     

Parameter Evaluation and Model Validation of Ozone Exposure Assessment Using Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study Data

Abstract

To examine factors influencing long‐term ozone (O₃) exposures by children living in urban communities, the authors analyzed longitudinal data on personal, indoor, and outdoor O₃ concentrations, as well as related housing and other questionnaire information collected in the one‐year‐long Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study. Of 224 children contained in the original data set, 160 children were found to have longitudinal measurements of O₃ concentrations in at least six months of 12 months of the study period. Data for these children were randomly split into two equal sets: one for model development and the other for model validation. Mixed models with various variance‐covariance structures were developed to evaluate statistically important predictors for chronic personal ozone exposures. Model predictions were then validated against the field measurements using an empirical best‐linear unbiased prediction technique.The results of model fitting showed that the most important predictors for personal ozone exposure include indoor O₃ concentration, central ambient O₃ concentration, outdoor O₃ concentration, season, gender, outdoor time, house fan usage, and the presence of a gas range in the house. Hierarchical models of personal O₃ concentrations indicate the following levels of explanatory power for each of the predictive models: indoor and outdoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central and indoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, indoor O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, central O₃ concentrations plus questionnaire variables, and questionnaire data alone on time activity and housing characteristics. These results provide important information on key predictors of chronic human exposures to ambient O₃ for children and offer insights into how to reliably and cost‐effectively predict personal O₃ exposures in the future. Furthermore, the techniques and findings derived from this study also have strong implications for selecting the most reliable and cost‐effective exposure study design and modeling approaches for other ambient pollutants, such as fine particulate matter and selected urban air toxics.     

Systematic Development of an Artificial Neural Network Model for Real-Time Prediction of Ground-Level Ozone in Edmonton,Alberta, Canada

Abstract

Ground-level ozone is a secondary pollutant that has recently gained notoriety for its detrimental effects on human and vegetation health. In this paper, a systematic approach is applied to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models for ground-level ozone (O₃) prediction in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, using ambient monitoring data for input. The intent of these models is to provide regulatory agencies with a tool for addressing data gaps in ambient monitoring information and predicting O₃ events. The models are used to determine the meteorological conditions and precursors that most affect O₃ concentrations. O₃ time-series effects and the efficacy of the systematic approach are also assessed. The developed models showed good predictive success, with coefficient of multiple determination values ranging from 0.75 to 0.94 for forecasts up to 2 hr in advance. The inputs most important for O₃ prediction were temperature and concentrations of nitric oxide, total hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide.     

Trends and Relationships of O3, NOx and HC in the South Coast Air Basin of California

A basin-wide air quality trend analysis for the South Coast Air Basin of California is conducted for hydrocarbons (HC), NO_x, O₃ and CO using multi-station composite daily maximum-hour average ambient concentrations for the third quarter (July, August and September) from 1968 to 1985. Emissions and air quality trends are compared for the period 1968-1984. Ambient HC and NOX trends are somewhat different from estimated emission trends of HC and NO_x, while a definite, downward trend of ambient CO is consistent with vehicular emission control measures. Basin-wide ambient HC, NO_x and O₃ appear to show downward trends for the period 1970-1985, but because of high fluctuations it is difficult to delineate trends for shorter periods. The meteorology (850 mb temperature)-adjusted O₃ shows a more consistent downward trend than does unadjusted O₃. Polynomial and multiplicative regression models for basin-wide empirical O₃-HC-NO_x relationships Indicate that the O₃ variation is explained largely by the meteorological variable (850 mb temperature) although model estimations are improved by adding HC and NO_x concentration terms.     

Air Quality Modeling of Interpollutant Trading for Ozone Precursors in an Urban Area

Abstract

Emission trading is a market‐based approach designed to improve the efficiency and economic viability of emission control programs; emission trading has typically been confined to trades among single pollutants. Interpollutant trading (IPT), as described in this work, allows for trades among emissions of different compounds that affect the same air quality end point, in this work, ambient ozone (O₃) concentrations. Because emissions of different compounds impact air quality end points differently, weighting factors or trading ratios (tons of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) equivalent to a ton of emissions of volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) must be developed to allow for IPT. In this work, IPT indices based on reductions in O₃ concentrations and based on reductions in population exposures to O₃ were developed and evaluated using a three‐dimensional gridded photochemical model for Austin, TX, a city currently on the cusp of nonattainment with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O₃ concentrations averaged over 8 hr. Emissions of VOC and NO_x from area and mobile sources in Austin are larger than emissions from point sources. The analysis indicated that mobile and area sources exhibited similar impacts. Trading ratios based on maximum O₃ concentration or population exposure were similar. In contrast, the trading ratios did exhibit significant (more than a factor of two) day‐to‐day variability. Analysis of the air quality modeling indicated that the daily variability in trading ratios could be attributed to daily variations in both emissions and meteorology.     

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growth and condition in a polluted environment: from decline to recovery

The results of long-term investigations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growth and condition in the impact zone of one of the biggest air pollution sources in Lithuania--mineral fertilizers plant "Achema" are presented. The main attention is laid to the recovery of damaged stands since annual emissions to air were reduced essentially. The investigations indicated, that the recovery of tree increment was mostly caused by distinct reduction of emissions of nitrogen and sulphur oxides and dust of mineral fertilizers. Despite reduced pollution, crown defoliation of investigated stands has continued to increase for a certain period. After the crown recovery of damaged stands has started, the recovery of most damaged survived trees was most intensive and convergence of defoliated to a different extend stands and trees is characteristic feature of this period. No defoliation threshold has been determined beyond of which recovery of trees would be impossible. Recovery of more than a quarter of damaged trees was registered even in the case of 90% of defoliation. Recovery of dominant trees occurs to be faster of that for suppressed trees within the same level of defoliation. The impact of stand density on the crown recovery rate is negative, the higher density (more intensive competition), the slower recovery of damaged trees. The dependence of growth rate on defoliation was found to be of logistic character: while crown defoliation consists up to 25-30%, tree increment losses are rather inconsiderable, further increase of defoliation leads to the essentially higher increment losses, however having achieved 65-70% defoliation, further increase of defoliation does not result such intensive decrease of radial increment.     

Understanding the Effectiveness of Precursor Reductions in Lowering 8-Hr Ozone Concentrations—Part II. The Eastern United States

Abstract

Analyses of ozone (O₃) measurements in conjunction with photochemical modeling were used to assess the feasibility of attaining the federal 8-hr O₃ standard in the eastern United States. Various combinations of volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emission reductions were effective in lowering modeled peak 1-hr O₃ concentrations. VOC emissions reductions alone had only a modest impact on modeled peak 8-hr O₃ concentrations. Anthropogenic NO_x emissions reductions of 46–86% of 1996 base case values were needed to reach the level of the 8-hr standard in some areas. As NO_x emissions are reduced, O₃ production efficiency increases, which accounts for the less than proportional response of calculated 8-hr O₃ levels. Such increases in O₃ production efficiency also were noted in previous modeling work for central California. O₃ production in some urban core areas, such as New York City and Chicago, IL, was found to be VOC-limited. In these areas, moderate NO_x emissions reductions may be accompanied by increases in peak 8-hr O₃ levels. The findings help to explain differences in historical trends in 1- and 8-hr O₃ levels and have serious implications for the feasibility of attaining the 8-hr O₃ standard in several areas of the eastern United States.     

Protection of plants from ambient ozone by applications of ethylenediurea (EDU): A meta-analytic review

A meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of ethylenediurea (EDU) on ozone (O₃) injury, growth, physiology and productivity of plants grown in ambient air conditions. Results indicated that EDU significantly reduced O₃-caused visible injury by 76%, and increased photosynthetic rate by 8%, above-ground biomass by 7% and crop yield by 15% in comparison with non-EDU treated plants, suggesting that ozone reduces growth and yield under current ambient conditions. EDU significantly ameliorated the biomass and yield of crops and grasses, but had no significant effect on tree growth with an exception of stem diameter. EDU applied as a soil drench at a concentration of 200-400 mg/L has the highest positive effect on crops grown in the field. Long-term research on full-grown tree species is needed. In conclusion, EDU is a powerful tool for assessing effects of ambient [O₃] on vegetation.     

Ozone and increased nitrogen supply effects on the yield and nutritive quality of Trifolium subterraneum

The influence of ambient ozone (O₃) concentrations and nitrogen (N) fertilization, singly and in combination, on the growth and nutritive quality of Trifolium subterraneum was assessed. This is an important O₃-sensitive species of great pastoral value in Mediterranean areas. Plant material was enclosed in open-top chambers (OTCs). Three O₃ levels were established: Filtered air with O₃ concentrations below 15 ppb (CFA), non-filtered air with O₃ concentrations in the range of ambient levels (NFA), and non-filtered air supplemented with 40 ppb O₃ over ambient levels (NFA+). Similarly, three N levels were defined: 5, 15 and 30 kg ha⁻¹. The increase in O₃ exposure induced a reduction of the clover aerial green biomass and an increase of senescent biomass. Ozone effects were more adverse in the root system, inducing an impairment of the aerial/subterranean biomass ratio. Compared with the CFA treatment, nutritive quality of aerial biomass was 10 and 20% lower for NFA and NFA+ treatments, respectively, due to increased concentrations of acid detergent fiber, neutral detergent fiber and lignin. The latter effect appears to be related to senescence acceleration. The increment in N supplementation enhanced the increase of ADF concentrations in those plants simultaneously exposed to ambient and above-ambient O₃ concentrations, and reduced the incremental rate of foliar senescence induced by the pollutant.     

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O₃) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O₃ trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O₃ concentrations follow the general decreases in both NO_x and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO₂ concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O₃ photochemistry. The linear O₃–NO₂ relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O₃ with projected NO_x emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O₃ concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NO_x and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O₃ reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O₃ with emissions suggest that O₃ is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O₃ change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NO_x sensitivity with time (NMOC/NO_x ratio increase), increase in O₃ production efficiency at lower NO_x concentrations (higher O₃/NO_y ratio), and the presence of natural NO_x and NMOC precursors and background O₃.

Implications:?This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O₃ and precursors based on long term trends in U.S. locations. The results indicate that ground-level O₃ concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NO_x since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.     

Influence of ship emissions on ozone concentrations around coastal areas during summer season

The influence of ship emissions on ozone (O₃) concentrations in a coastal area (CA) including Busan port, Korea was examined based on a numerical modeling approach during a high O₃ episode. The analysis was performed by two sets of simulation scenarios: (1) with ship emissions (e.g., TOTAL case) and (2) without ship emissions (e.g., BASE case). A process analysis (PA) (the integrated processes rate (IPR) and integrated reaction rate (IRR) analyses) was used to evaluate the relative contributions of individual physical and chemical processes in O₃ production in and around the CA (e.g., sites of Dong Sam (DS) and Dae Yeon (DY)). The model study suggested the possibility that pollutant gases emitted from the ships traversing Busan port can exert a direct impact on the O₃ concentration levels in the CA. Largest impacts of ship emissions on the O₃ concentrations were predicted at the coast (up to 15 ppb) and at inland locations (about 5 ppb) due to both the photochemical production of pollutant gases emitted from the ships and meteorological conditions. From the PA, the photochemical production of O₃ (P(O₃)) due to ship emissions in the CA was found to increase by a mean of 1.5 ppb h^?1 (especially by ≥10 ppb h^?1 at the DS site) during the day.     

Stomatal characteristics and infection biology of Pyrenopeziza betulicola in Betula pendula trees grown under elevated CO2 and O3

Two silver birch clones were exposed to ambient and elevated concentrations of CO₂ and O₃, and their combination for 3 years, using open-top chambers. We evaluated the effects of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on stomatal conductance (g_s), density (SD) and index (SI), length of the guard cells, and epidermal cell size and number, with respect to crown position and leaf type. The relationship between the infection biology of the fungus (Pyrenopeziza betulicola) causing leaf spot disease and stomatal characteristics was also studied. Leaf type was an important determinant of O₃ response in silver birch, while crown position and clone played only a minor role. Elevated CO₂ reduced the g_s, but had otherwise no significant effect on the parameters studied. No significant interactions between elevated CO₂ and O₃ were found. The infection biology of P. betulicola was not correlated with SD or g_s, but it did occasionally correlate positively with the length of the guard cells.     

An ozone climatology: relationship between meteorology and ozone in the Southeast USA

A statistical analysis of ozone (O₃) concentrations and meteorological parameters was performed to determine the relationship between meteorological changes and ambient O₃ concentrations in the Southeast United States. The correlation between average daily maximum O₃ concentration and various meteorological variables was analysed on a monthly basis from April through October during 1980-1994. The correlations were strongest during the summer months, particularly June, July, and August. Analysis of long term O₃ concentration trends indicates increasing trends during the 1980s and decreasing trends during the early 1990s.     

Analysis of ozone and VOCs measured in Shanghai: A case study

Shanghai Meteorological Administration has established a volatile organic compounds (VOCs) laboratory and an observational network for VOCs and ozone (O₃) measurements in the city of Shanghai. In this study, the measured VOCs and O₃ concentrations from 15 November (15-Nov) to 26 November (26-Nov) of 2005 in Shanghai show that there are strong day-to-day and diurnal variations. The measured O₃ and VOCs concentrations have very different characterizations between the two periods. During 15-Nov to 21-Nov (defined as the first period), VOCs and O₃ concentrations are lower than the values during 22-Nov to 28-Nov (defined as the second period). There is a strong diurnal variation of O₃ during the second period with maximum concentrations of 40–80 ppbv at noontime, and minimum concentrations at nighttime. By contrast, during the first period, the diurnal variation of O₃ is in an irregular pattern with maximum concentrations of only 20–30 ppbv. The VOC concentrations change rapidly from 30–50 ppbv during the first period to 80–100 ppbv during the second period. Two chemical models are applied to interpret the measurements. One model is a regional chemical/dynamical model (WRF-Chem) and another is a detailed chemical mechanism model (NCAR MM). Model analysis shows that the meteorological conditions are very different between the two periods, and are mainly responsible for the different chemical characterizations of O₃ and VOCs between the two periods. During the first period, meteorological conditions are characterized by cloudy sky and high-surface winds in Shanghai, resulting in a higher nighttime planetary boundary layer (PBL) and faster transport of air pollutants. By contrast, during the second period, the meteorological conditions are characterized by clear sky and weak surface winds, resulting in a lower nighttime PBL and slower transport of air pollutants. The chemical mechanism model calculation shows that different VOC species has very different contributions to the high-ozone concentrations during the second period. Alkane (40 ppbv) and aromatic (30 ppbv) are among the highest VOC concentrations observed in Shanghai. The analysis suggests that the aromatic is a main contributor for the O₃ chemical production in Shanghai, with approximately 79% of the O₃ being produced by aromatic. This analysis implies that future increase in VOC (especially aromatic) emissions could lead to significant increase in O₃ concentrations in Shanghai.