中国可再生能源政策演化、效果评估与未来展望

发展可再生能源已成为中国能源转型及减缓气候变化的关键途径。2006年《可再生能源法》实施至今,中国可再生发展取得举世瞩目成绩。然而可再生能源在中国整个能源结构中的占比仍然偏低,其未来可持续发展仍面临挑战,如可再生能源发展资金缺口持续扩大,可再生能源电力消纳仍然面临一定障碍。在未来新的发展背景下,有必要对中国可再生能源政策进行系统的评估和总结,进一步探讨未来可再生能源政策的优化方案。本文首先对中国2005—2019年可再生能源政策的发展历程及演化路径进行总结梳理,基于不同时期的发展特点及面临的主要矛盾将中国可再生能源政策历程划分为四个阶段;然后在综述相关研究基础上,对中国可再生能源政策的实施效果进行评估,包括政策有效性、政策成本、技术进步等。结果表明,中国过去十年的可再生能源政策对促进可再生能源快速发展是积极有效的,而促进可再生能源发展的政策成本仍然有进一步下降的空间;另外,虽然中国可再生能源发电成本下降显著,然而基于历史经验的技术进步率仍然不足以支撑实现中国2020年平价上网的目标,未来需要进一步推动可再生能源技术的进步和发电成本的下降。结合当前及未来中国可再生能源发展所处阶段的特点及面临挑战,我们提出进一步完善中国可再生能源政策以促进可再生能源持续稳定发展的政策建议,一是完善可再生能源绿色电力证书交易制度,增强可再生能源发展的内生激励并降低政策实施成本;二是建立储能技术市场机制,为减少弃电以及推动可再生能源消纳提供政策支持;三是推进碳金融体系建设,为可再生能源发展提供新的融资来源并降低发电成本。     

中国农村可再生能源的发展现状分析

中国有9亿人民生活在农村地区,农村能源的利用直接影响我国经济社会的全面发展,本文首先介绍了我国的能源资源潜力及农村能源消费结构,指出现阶段正处于从传统能源消费结构向现代能源消费结构变迁的过程中。在分析我国各种可再生能源技术最新发展现状基础上,文中总结了可再生能源CDM碳交易项目的进展,最后分析了我国给与可再生能源发展的鼓励及相关保护政策并提出了了我国农村可再生能源发展的问题及建议。     

可再生能源电价补贴的大气环境效益分析

可再生能源的电价补贴是一项旨在加速推进可再生能源广泛应用的政策机制,对中国能源结构调整(降低煤电比例)、改善大气环境具有重要的现实意义。鉴此,本文将可再生能源发电带来的空气污染物(CO_2、SO_2、NO_X和PM_(2.5))排放的减少作为衡量大气环境质量改善的效益指标,利用2012年中国投入产出表建立包含温室气体、污染气体和颗粒物模块的可计算一般均衡模型,从总量和行业的视角量化研究了实施可再生能源电价补贴政策对改善大气环境的积极作用,考察了可再生能源发电补贴辅以硫税、硫税及碳税这两种冲击的情景。研究表明:可再生能源电价补贴减少了温室气体、污染气体的总排放量和颗粒物浓度,在补贴的基础上辅以硫税不仅可以有效地增进大气环境福利效益,而且还能抵消征税对经济增长的负面效应;可再生能源电价补贴使清洁能源发电对火电产生替代效应,各个行业排放的CO_2、SO_2和NO_X均下降;但这一替代效应在工业部门尤其是重工业部门相对有限,这也证明了工业部门的减排压力较于其他产业(农业部门和服务业部门)更大;补贴可促进可再生能源发电量不断提升,进而优化能源结构,这是增进大气环境效益的根本原因。上述结果意味着短期内要提高可再生能源电价附加标准,补贴与税收双管齐下以增强减排力度。而可能面临的可再生能源电价补贴资金不足问题则意味着中期内要实现补贴方式逐渐向定额补贴、绿色证书模式过渡,利用市场机制确定补贴标准;长期内需最终取消补贴政策,倒逼技术进步,推动整个可再生能源产业的可持续发展。     

中欧可再生能源电力安全困境分析与合作路径

本文主要是为中欧可再生能源电力安全合作路径提供相关的政策建议。通过中欧双方可再生能源政策的相互比较,得到以下结论:1中国能源密度下跌的原因是节能减排政策的实施使用,不断提高能源效率和减排将是未来中国政府的核心任务;2把新能源外交与能源节约联系在一起,与欧盟之间加强中欧新能源合作,抓住机会引进新能源技术、设备和成果,以加强我们在新能源领域的竞争力;3建立战略目标和政策协调机制,以促进新能源外交政策的梳理,协同推进新能源外交战略目标的发展;4探索欧盟与中国的合作新机制,减少现有的国际机构或政府新成立的多边集团对短期商品价格冲击的影响,缓解短期的商品供应缺口和价格冲击;5在维护能源安全上,中欧双方有着共同的利益,也面临共同挑战。与欧盟在能源技术、能效管理、标准、法规、能源市场和监管等方面合作,推动中国节能和增效,对控制能源消费总量,实现能源生产和利用方式变革等都具有现实意义。     

中国能源安全分析:基于最优消费路径视角

进入新世纪以来,中国能源生产不能满足能源需求的强劲增长,导致能源对外依赖性较大,能源进口和海外开发又面临较多挑战。国内能源开发粗放,能源利用效率低下,新能源和可再生能源发展较晚,能源战略储备不完善等问题也很突出。本文在中国具体实际的基础上,通过建立一个简单的两时期消费最优化模型,并综合考虑本国能源与能源进口和海外开发之间、传统能源与新能源和可再生能源的开发与利用之间这两个关键的替代关系及提高能源利用效率的可能影响,得出了中国能源消费的最优跨期消费路径。当前能源消费中的很多问题,包括日益增大的"能源缺口",都源于实际能源消费量严重偏离了这一"最优路径"所规定的消费水平。因此,为了有效缓解乃至从根本上消除中国的"能源缺口",中国能源消费应严格按照此最优跨期消费路径进行,同时尽可能地增加能源进口、加快发展可再生能源和新能源并提高能源使用效率。     

论中国加入WTO之后可再生能源产业的发展

在中国加入WTO之后，对于可再生能源领域的研究应该以积极的态度更多地关注可再生能源产业的发展问题。本文以考查目前再生能源产业发展所面临的主要障碍为起点，分析了加入WTO之后中国可再生能源产业发展面临的社会、经济环境的变化所产生的积极影响。为了适应加入WTO之后的新形势，可再生能源产业发展应该有效的举措。     

可再生能源发电配额制政策(RPS)研究

本文首先解释了可再生能源发电配额制政策的基本含义。然后 ,通过比较英国、美国、荷兰、丹麦和澳大利亚五国的可再生能源发电配额制政策 ,总结了实施RPS的国际经验 ,包括成功的经验和失败的教训 ,提出了以及对中国实施RPS的政策建议     

电力产业重构中的可再生能源政策——美国的经验

电力工业进行的市场化重构 ,对可再生能源来说 ,可能是一种机会 ,也可能意味着风险。主要的风险就是在不考虑外部性的情况下进行竞争将使可再生能源处于劣势。这种劣势将导致可再生能源发电量比改革前还少 ,同时大气污染更大 ,温室气体排放更多。但是如果采取适当的政策 ,新的市场也可以为可再生能源的发展创造更多的机会。本文在提出这个问题的基础上 ,介绍并分析了美国在进行电力产业重构时 ,为了促进可再生能源的发展所采用的系统效益费、可再生能源份额标准和绿色市场等三种政策方法     

可再生能源、能源地缘政治风险与国家能源安全北大核心CSCDCSSCI

从石油世纪向可再生能源主导的碳中和时代转型,将重塑全球能源安全新格局。文章基于化石能源的非均衡非均质点状分布特征,分析了以化石能源为主导的传统能源安全,其有着难以摆脱的能源地缘困境,而可再生能源凭借其天然的资源禀赋,为打破地缘困境对中国能源安全的束缚提供了新契机。基于此,文章以1990—2020年的时间序列数据,实证检验了可再生能源的投入使用与能源地缘政治风险的关系。结果表明以风能、太阳能、水能、生物质能等为代表的可再生能源使用,显著弱化了中国长期以来以化石能源进口依赖为主导的能源结构所面临的地缘政治风险,为中国的能源安全提供了可靠保障。在更换地缘风险测度指标,控制原油进口集中度等一系列稳健性检验后,结果依然显著。该研究不仅丰富了现有关于国家能源安全研究的文献,更为碳中和新时代背景下国家能源安全战略布局提供了理论依据,为强化碳中和时代中国在世界能源安全格局中的战略引领地位、助推民族复兴和现代化能源强国建设提供了政策指引。     

江苏省能源可持续发展模式初探

针对目前江苏省能源可持续发展面临的挑战，以保障江苏能源综合供需平衡和实现能源 经济 环境协调发展为目标，以调整能源结构、优化能源供给体系、提高能源转化效率和清洁性为立足点，以充分利用省内不同区位的能源发展优势为主线，因地制宜地提炼出江苏省能源可持续发展的基本模式，包括自有资源优化开发模式和外部资源导入开发模式两大类型。其中，自有资源优化开发模式又可分为徐州煤炭工业综合体、苏北石油工业基地和沿海滩涂型可再生能源基地3种子模式；外部资源导入开发模式可分为沿江电力生产基地、苏南电力负荷中心和沿海临港型能源基地3种子模式。各种模式协同发展，有利于增强江苏省的能源可持续发展能力.     

Renewable Energy Legislation in China:Politicaland Institutional Strategy for EffectiveImplementation

Over the past decade, the Chinese government has developed several plans regulations and policy measures related to the development of renewable energy technologies and has implemented a series of pilot projects. Chinese policymakers have spent several years studying how renewable energy policy models that have been used internationally could be implemented in China. Programs are currently underway to implement pilot renewable portfolio standards, or mandatory market shares (MMS) for renewable energy, in several provinces. This paper examines the primary institutions that are involved in promoting renewable policies in China, the structure of the policies that currently are being drafted, and the status of the complementary, national-level renewable energy law being drafted to provide a legal basis for ongoing local and national-level policies. It then examines the legal requirements for promoting renewable energy legislation under the Chinese law-making system. Finally, it provides recommendations for     

Renewable Energy Legislation in China: Political and Institutional Strategy for Effective Implementation

Abstract

Over the past decade, the Chinese government has developed several plans regulations and policy measures related to the development of renewable energy technologies and has implemented a series of pilot projects. Chinese policymakers have spent several years studying how renewable energy policy models that have been used internationally could be implemented in China. Programs are currently underway to implement pilot renewable portfolio standards, or mandatory market shares (MMS) for renewable energy, in several provinces. This paper examines the primary institutions that are involved in promoting renewable policies in China, the structure of the policies that currently are being drafted, and the status of the complementary, national-level renewable energy law being drafted to provide a legal basis for ongoing local and national-level policies. It then examines the legal requirements for promoting renewable energy legislation under the Chinese law-making system. Finally, it provides recommendations for strategies to ensure the smooth implementation of a multi-faceted national renewable energy policy and legal framework.     

The EU sustainable energy policy indicators framework

The article deals with indicators framework to monitor implementation of the main EU (European Union) directives and other policy documents targeting sustainable energy development. The main EU directives which have impact on sustainable energy development are directives promoting energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources, directives implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and atmospheric pollution reduction policies and other policy documents and strategies targeting energy sector. Promotion of use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency improvements are among priorities of EU energy policy because the use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency improvements has positive impact on energy security and climate change mitigation. The framework of indicators can be developed to establish the main targets set by EU energy and environmental policies allowing to connect indicators via chain of mutual impacts and to define policies and measures necessary to achieve established targets based on assessment of their impact on the targeted indicators representing sustainable energy development aims. The article discusses the application of indicators framework for EU sustainable energy policy analysis and presents the case study of this policy tool application for Baltic States. The article also discusses the use of biomass in Baltic States and future considerations in this field.     

Economic growth and energy consumption in Iran: an ARDL approach including renewable and non-renewable energies

Iran experiences a high level of energy consumption which is threatening not only economically but also politically and environmentally. This study aims to estimate the relationship between the economic growth with the various kinds of energies, non-hydroelectric, renewable, non-renewable, and total energies in Iran during 1967–2012, using an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model. The results show the ineffective relationship between the economic growth and energy consumption in Iran, considering non-hydroelectric energy, renewable energy, non-renewable energy, and total energy, one by one as the energy proxy. It implies the ineffectiveness of both the quantitative and qualitative deflationary policies over the energy sector. In another word, neither decreasing energy consumption nor changing energy portfolio affects the economic growth. Therefore, the policy makers are advised to formulate those policies which reduce the quantity of energy consumption or increase the segment of renewable energies in the portfolio of energy consumption because they do not lead to the considerable negative consequence on the economic growth, while they increase both the environmental quality and energy security.     

Road energy consumption,economic growth,population and urbanization in Egypt: cointegration and causality analysis

The study investigates the causal relationships between road energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization and population growth in Egypt over the period (1980–2011). I use Johansen cointegration approach, vector error correction model (VECM), generalized impulse response functions and variance decomposition technique. The results show the existence of long-run relationship between the variables. Moreover, the results indicate the existence of unidirectional long-run causality running from road energy consumption to urbanization and from road energy consumption to economic growth which implies the existence of growth hypothesis in the long run. Also, there is bidirectional short-run causality between road energy consumption and economic growth, which indicates the existence of feedback hypothesis in the short run. These results imply that road energy consumption determines economic growth in the both short run and long run and economic growth causes road energy consumption in the short run. And according to these results, several policy implications will be suggested for policymakers. They should take into consideration while implementing energy conservation policies, the possible negative effect on economic growth and have to concentrate on technological development policies and to make a shift towards using clean alternative fuel as natural gas and focus on investment in renewable energy resources.     

我国发展循环经济的政策与法律体系探讨

建立和完善循环经济政策应遵循三个原则：服务于我国循环经济概念与内涵原则。服务于循环经济实践的原则。用足用好现有政策和补充缺位政策相结合的原则。我国发展循环经济的政策与法律体系应包括四大类：基本政策、核心政策和基础性政策。技术政策可以融入这四类政策之中。基本政策是统领循环经济所有政策的根本。是资源环境与社会经济发展相融合的综合性政策。基础性政策是指为循环经济重点领域实践创造良好制度环境的政策。大致包括宏观经济政策、基本经济制度、基础性激励政策和考核政策等。核心政策是直接推动循环经济重点实践领域的政策。在核心政策中。需要切实落实和用足用好的现有对循环经济发展较有利的政策有：生态工业政策（包括产业结构调整政策、清洁生产政策）。资源综合利用和环保产业税费优惠政策。能源节约和再生能源政策。环境友好型产品标志（标识）政策；需要完善的薄弱政策有：生态工业园建设政策。废弃物回收、再利用、资源化和无害化产业政策。生态农业政策。资源开发利用政策；需要新建立的缺位政策主要涉及消费领域、环境友好型和资源能源节约型城镇基础设施和建筑领域。     

Towards a sustainable energy future—exploring current barriers and potential solutions in Thailand

Renewable energy is considered an indispensable basis of sustainable energy systems as electricity generation from renewable sources results in low emissions of greenhouse gases compared to fossil fuel based electricity and contributes to sustainable development. However, effective strategies and conducive institutional settings are needed for advancement of such clean electricity systems. Although Thailand, as a nation, has a huge potential for renewable energy utilization, its total amount of electricity generation from renewables is relatively small and could be enlarged substantially. Lack of policy mechanisms, institutional development and financing exist as major barriers for Thailand in this regard. Investigation of the nation’s current energy strategy implementation shows that relevant energy and development policies are at different stages of implementation and institutional settings are continuously evolving. This paper argues that further significant efforts could be made towards advancement of renewable electricity and thus achievement of energy sustainability in Thailand. Resource planning, effective policy and institutions, focussed planning for energy sustainability and implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol could facilitate further advancement of renewables for the nation.