Quantitative risk analysis of toxic gas release caused poisoning—A CFD and dose–response model combined approach

Some major toxic gas release accidents demonstrate the urgent need of a systematic risk analysis method for individuals exposed to toxic gases. A CFD numerical simulation and dose–response model combined approach has been proposed for quantitative analysis of acute toxic gas exposure threats. This method contains four steps: firstly, set up a CFD model and monitor points; secondly, solve CFD equations and predict the real-time concentration field of toxic gas releases and dispersions; thirdly, calculate the toxic dose according to gas concentration and exposure time; lastly, estimate expected fatalities using dose–response model. A case study of hydrogen sulfide releases from a gas gathering station has been carried out using a three dimension FLUENT model. Acute exposure fatalities have been evaluated firstly with a simplified ideal model which assumes workers stay at original exposure location without moving. Then a comparison has been made with a more realistic model which assumes workers start evacuating according to a prearranged course as soon as hydrogen sulfide detection system alarms. These two models represent the worst and best emergency response effects, respectively, and the analysis results demonstrate significant differences. Results indicate that the CFD and dose–response combined approach is a good way for estimating fatalities of individuals exposed to accidental toxic gas releases.     

天然气净化厂管道泄漏H2S毒害后果影响因素数值分析

为定量评估高含硫天然气开敞空间泄漏过程中风速、风向、泄漏速度、泄漏方向对毒害后果的影响,以天然气净化厂管道泄漏为例,采用正交实验设计方法设计实验场景,基于CFD进行泄漏扩散仿真实验,以吸入剂量、毒害面积、最大毒害面积到达时间、毒害体积、最大毒害体积到达时间作为毒害效应指标,分析不同因素对毒害后果的影响,并提出后果控制建议。研究结果表明:采用CFD方法进行泄漏扩散仿真能够还原泄漏扩散过程;利用正交实验进行影响因素分析可以节省实验资源、获取准确结果;风向和风速对各后果指标均比较敏感,在天然气净化厂建设过程中应着重考虑风的影响。仿真与正交实验结合的方法能够有效评估毒害后果影响因素的敏感性,可为毒害气体泄漏风险防控提供指导。     

气田井喷硫化氢风洞模拟试验研究

为研究高含硫气田发生井喷事故后硫化氢的扩散运动规律,以重庆开县"12·23"井喷事故为研究对象,利用北京大学的2号环境风洞,制作了1∶2000的比例模型,利用乙烯和丙烯的混合气为示踪气体,采用长采样管方法测量浓度,首次在国内进行了井喷事故后硫化氢扩散的风洞试验,获得了低风速下(源处10m高风速为0.5m/s)N,NE,E,SE,S,SW,W,NW8个风向情况下的硫化氢浓度分布随时间的演化动画,定量地给出了各风向情况下硫化氢的最大浓度分布和各点的浓度时间序列,认为在低风速下,最大硫化氢浓度区域在撞山爬坡时出现,而爬过山坡后在背风区的硫化氢浓度会迅速降低。研究成果将为气田的井喷风险分级以及井喷事故后的应急处理提供参考。     

公路隧道内CNG管束气瓶车泄漏天然气扩散CFD仿真

气体管束气瓶车是运输压缩天然气(Compressed Natural Gas, CNG)的重要工具,针对CNG管束气瓶车运输过程中在公路隧道内发生追尾导致泄漏问题,基于计算流体动力学CFD方法,建立CNG管束气瓶车遭追尾致泄漏后果预测与评估模型,对公路隧道内风场条件下泄漏天然气的扩散过程进行模拟与分析,研究CNG管束气瓶车泄漏天然气在隧道内的扩散规律和形成的危险区域范围。仿真结果表明:泄漏天然气扩散具有极速泄漏、外力作用、初期膨胀增长和稳定收缩等特征;喷射气云团能够覆盖肇事车辆前部,可能导致驾驶人员窒息或引发火灾、爆炸事故;实例工况下,泄漏气体扩散至稳态以后,形成爆炸极限浓度范围内的气云分布在肇事车辆前部1.5m至肇事车辆中部之间的区域;进行事故应急响应时,应封锁事故隧道,加强隧道内通风,在消防水枪的稀释掩护下对管束气瓶车进行堵漏作业。     

Risk assessment methodology for high-pressure CO2 pipelines incorporating topography

This paper presents a risk assessment methodology for high-pressure CO₂ pipelines developed at the Health and Safety Laboratory as part of the EU FP7 project CO2Pipehaz.Traditionally, consequence modelling of dense gas releases from pipelines at major hazard impact levels is performed using integral models with limited or no consideration being given to weather bias or topographical features of the surrounding terrain. Whilst dispersion modelling of CO₂ releases from pipelines using three-dimensional CFD models may provide higher levels of confidence in the predicted behaviour of the cloud, the use of such models is resource-intensive and usually impracticable. An alternative is to use more computationally efficient shallow layer or Lagrangian dispersion models that are able to account for the effects of topography whilst generating results within a reasonably short time frame.In the present work, the proposed risk assessment methodology for CO₂ pipelines is demonstrated using a shallow-layer dispersion model to generate contours from a sequence of release points along the pipeline. The simulations use realistic terrain taken from UK topographical data. Individual and societal risk levels in the vicinity of the pipeline are calculated using the Health and Safety Laboratory's risk assessment tool QuickRisk.Currently, the source term for a CO₂ release is not well understood because of its complex thermodynamic properties and its tendency to form solid particles under specific pressure and temperature conditions. This is a key knowledge gap and any subsequent dispersion modelling, particularly when including topography, may be affected by the accuracy of the source term.     

海洋平台井喷含硫天然气扩散危险区域研究

针对海洋酸性气田开采过程中含硫天然气井喷失控扩散问题,采用CFD方法建立井喷含硫天然气扩散后果预测与评估模型。综合考虑天然气爆燃与硫化氢毒害风险因素,对不同场景条件下的含硫天然气扩散过程开展数值模拟,研究硫化氢浓度、风向、风速等因素对含硫天然气扩散行为的影响,预测和评估天然气扩散所形成的危险区域和硫化氢气体扩散所形成的毒害范围。研究表明:随着硫化氢浓度的增加,燃爆区域无明显变化,而毒害区域明显增加;船艉来风导致的事故后果最为严重,左、右舷来风有利于危险气体的扩散与消散;风速越大,燃爆区域和毒害区域范围越小,但是在船艏来风且风速较大的工况下,硫化氢气体竖直扩散距离降低且逐渐贴近生活区,容易造成作业人员中毒事故的发生。     

含硫天然气泄漏扩散事故后果三维数值模拟

含硫天然气泄漏扩散是一个非常复杂的扩散过程,它受复杂地形空间、不同风向、风速等各种条件的影响。为此,采用可行的计算流体动力学(CFD)对这一过程进行了三维数值模拟,根据龙岗001-81井含硫天然气泄漏扩散事故现场,利用ArcGIS软件提取该井周围2 500 m范围内的地形数据建立计算域物理模型,模拟了在多种工况下(不同地形、风向、风速)含硫天然气的扩散规律,对扩散结果进行规律性总结。     

On the non-monotonic wind influence on flammable gas cloud from CFD simulations for hazardous area classification

Hazardous areas are defined as a result of a variety of variables as storage temperature, pressure, leak orifice size, physical properties of flammable substance, and wind characteristics. The potential formation of an explosive atmosphere must be accurately assessed to ensure process safety. Therefore, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) arises as an important tool for accurate predictions as recommended by the international standard IEC 60079-10-1 (2015). This study aims to analyze the influence of wind velocity magnitude and direction on the hazardous area classification. The authors evaluated the extent and volume for methane, propane, and hydrogen leakages from a CFD model. For each flammable gas, the wind velocity magnitude and direction were regularly varied. The outcomes show that the behavior of the plume size as the wind varies mainly depends on the gas concentration. Counter-flow wind directions lead to zero relative velocity closer to the release point, which concentrates the gas, and wind in the release direction promotes a higher dilution of the gas cloud increasing the hazardous extent while decreases the volume. As a consequence, the wind also influences the zone type, which was accurately predicted from CFD simulations and significant differences were found when compared to the standard analyses. These differences are, to some extent, related to the consideration of wind velocity effects on the gas jet release.     

Validation of CFD-model for hydrogen dispersion

To be able to perform proper consequence modelling as a part of a risk assessment, it is essential to be able to model the physical processes well. Simplified tools for dispersion and explosion predictions are generally not very useful. CFD tools have the potential to model the relevant physics and predict well, but without proper user guidelines based on extensive validation work, very mixed prediction capability can be expected. In this article, recent dispersion validation effort for the CFD tool FLACS–HYDROGEN is presented. A range of different experiments is simulated, including low-momentum releases in a garage, subsonic jets in a garage with stratification effects and subsequent slow diffusion, low momentum and subsonic horizontal jets influenced by buoyancy, and free jets from high-pressure vessels. LH₂ releases are also considered. Some of the simulations are performed as blind predictions.     

南山铁矿风场及扩散规律风洞模拟研究

以风洞模拟方式研究中性层结条件下南山铁矿凹山采场地域边界层风场特征,并以示踪气体扩散摸拟方法给出该地域大气扩散参数的实验结果。     

Computational fluid dynamics analysis of liquefied natural gas dispersion for risk assessment strategies

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have been conducted for dense gas dispersion of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The simulations have taken into account the effects of gravity, time-dependent downwind and crosswind dispersion, and terrain. Experimental data from the Burro series field tests, and results from integral model (DEGADIS) have been used to assess the validity of simulation results, which were found to compare better with experimental data than the commonly used integral model DEGADIS. The average relative error in maximum downwind gas concentration between CFD predictions and experimental data was 19.62%.The validated CFD model was then used to perform risk assessment for most-likely-spill scenario at LNG stations as described in the standard of NFPA 59A (2009) “Standard for the Production, Storage and Handling of Liquefied Natural Gas”. Simulations were conducted to calculate the gas dispersion behaviour in the presence of obstacles (dikes walls). Interestingly for spill at a higher elevation, e.g., tank top, the effect of impounding dikes on the affected area was minimal. However, the impoundment zone did affect the wind velocity field in general, and generated a swirl inside it, which then played an important function in confining the dispersion cloud inside the dike. For most cases, almost 75% of the dispersed vapour was retained inside the impoundment zone. The finding and analysis presented here will provide an important tool for designing LNG plant layout and site selection.     

A CFD-based approach for gas detectors allocation

Accidental gas releases are detected by allocating sensors in optimal places to prevent escalation of the incident. Gas release effects are typically assessed based on calculating the dispersion from releasing points. In this work, a CFD-based approach is proposed to estimate gas dispersion and then to obtain optimal gas sensors allocation. The Ansys-Fluent commercial package is used to estimate concentrations in the open air by solving the governing equations of continuity, momentum, energy and species convection-diffusion combined with the realizable κ-ε model for turbulence viscosity effects. CFD dynamic simulations are carried out for potential gas leaks, assuming worst-case scenarios with F-stability and 2 m/s wind speed during a 4 min releasing period and considering 8 wind directions. The result is a scenario-based methodology to allocate gas sensors supported on fluid dynamics models. The three x–y–z geographical coordinates for the sensor allocation are included in this analysis. To highlight the methodology, a case study considers releases from a large container surrounded by different types of geometric units including sections with high obstacles, low obstacles, and no obstacles. A non-redundant set of perfect sensors are firstly allocated to cover completely the detection for all simulations releases. The benefits of redundant detection via a MooN voting arranging scheme is also discussed. Numerical results demonstrate the capabilities of CFD simulations for this application and highlight the dispersion effects through obstacles with different sizes.     

冬季烟塔合一烟气排放特性及其改善措施研究

针对烟塔合一冷却塔(Natural Draft Dry Cooling Tower,NDDCT)在冬季关闭冷却塔百叶窗时存在烟气排放困难的现象,以及导致冷却塔内污染物浓度大幅升高、进而增加冷却塔内壁腐蚀风险的问题,提出了增加烟囱高度的改善措施,并开展了风洞试验。基于计算流体力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics,CFD)方法建立了烟塔合一数值模型以获得冷却塔内部流场和污染物浓度场的分布特性,模拟对比了春季工况和冬季工况条件下烟塔合一冷却塔内部及出口位置的流场和烟气扩散特性。结果表明,由于百叶窗关闭导致冷却塔的通气量和换热量大幅度下降,冷却塔内部的流场变得杂乱无章,污染物质量分数大大增加。与春季相比,冬季冷却塔内壁污染物最大质量分数增加了1.5倍。随烟囱高度增加,烟气可以凭借其初始动能抵御冷却塔内的湍流冲出塔外,冷却塔内部的烟气扩散情况逐渐改善。定性风洞试验结果较好地验证了数值模拟结果,验证了该方法的可行性。虽然增加烟囱高度会增加施工初期的投资,但该方案能有效降低冷却塔的腐蚀风险,不但节省了后期防腐的投资,而且降低了安全风险。从长远来看,该措施利大于弊。     

3-D dispersion model for simulation of accidental toxic gas releases in a metropolitan area

Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were performed to assess the potential chlorine leak scenario in the super-urban area of South Korea, where the human population density is very high and numerous buildings exist near operational water treatment facilities. Flame acceleration simulator (FLACS) was used to predict the consequence from accidental chlorine releases out of one of the water treatment facilities for the nearby area having a size of 5 km × 3 km approximately. The ability to precisely implement 3-D geometries is crucial for a successful 3-D simulation. Thus, a method was proposed to rapidly and accurately implement geometry by importing computer aided-design (CAD) files provided by a government agency, and processing them using Auto CAD and MicroStation software programs. An accidental release from an 18-ton tank was simulated with three different wind directions to determine the expected evacuation distances. Results from the study showed that the endpoint distances varied depending on the density and arrangement of the buildings. Moreover, we employed physical barriers with varying heights for mitigating the effects of toxic gas releases and simulated how effectively they decreased the concentration of released chlorine.     

重大事故后果模拟法在天然气场站安全评价中的应用

场站是气田集输的枢纽,也是高风险存在和集中的场所。本论文采用重大事故后果模拟分析法建立天然气泄漏速率估算模型、蒸气云爆炸模型,并以陕北某一天然气场站为例,借助Risk System软件对天然气泄漏速率和泄漏量以及蒸气云爆炸最大事故进行数值模拟。模拟分析结果有助于对天然气场站可能发生的各种事故进行风险评价,也有助于对各类风险大的危险危害因素提出对应的安全对策措施,确保安全生产。     

Methodology for consequence analysis of LNG releases at deepwater port facilities

A methodology to perform consequence analysis associated with liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a deepwater port (DWP) facility has been presented. Analytical models used to describe the unconfined spill dynamics of LNG are discussed. How to determine the thermal hazard associated with a potential pool fire involving spilled LNG is also presented. Another hazard associated with potential releases of LNG is the dispersion of the LNG vapor. An approach using computational fluid dynamics tools (CFD) is presented. The CFD dispersion methodology is benchmarked against available test data. Using the proposed analysis approach provides estimates of hazard zones associated with newly proposed LNG deepwater ports and their potential impact to the public.     

基于灰色支持向量机的湿天然气集输管道腐蚀研究

湿天然气集输管道系统运行时间长,管道腐蚀严重,失效泄漏事故频发,其系统风险评价面临诸多问题,因而研究其腐蚀率预测有重要意义。基于灰色支持向量机(GSVM)方法,综合考虑管道材质及其各种影响因素,对其进行灰色相关分析,并根据结果选取有较高相关度的影响因子作为输入变量,将腐蚀率作为目标输出函数,建立湿天然气集输管道腐蚀预测模型。并通过实证分析比较,发现用该模型计算出的管道腐蚀率平均相对误差较小,其预测结果与实际值吻合程度较高,使预测精度得到提高。     

CFD-based simulation of dense gas dispersion in presence of obstacles

Quantification of spatial and temporal concentration profiles of vapor clouds resulting from accidental loss of containment of toxic and/or flammable substances is of great importance as correct prediction of spatial and temporal profiles can not only help in designing mitigation/prevention equipment such as gas detection alarms and shutdown procedures but also help decide on modifications that may help prevent any escalation of the event.The most commonly used models - SLAB (Ermak, 1990), HEGADAS (Colenbrander, 1980), DEGADIS (Spicer & Havens, 1989), HGSYSTEM (Witlox & McFarlane, 1994), PHAST (DNV, 2007), ALOHA (EPA & NOAA, 2007), SCIPUFF (Sykes, Parker, Henn, & Chowdhury, 2007), TRACE (SAFER Systems, 2009), etc. - for simulation of dense gas dispersion consider the dispersion over a flat featureless plain and are unable to consider the effect of presence of obstacles in the path of dispersing medium. In this context, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been recognized as a potent tool for realistic estimation of consequence of accidental loss of containment because of its ability to take into account the effect of complex terrain and obstacles present in the path of dispersing fluid.The key to a successful application of CFD in dispersion simulation lies in the accuracy with which the effect of turbulence generated due to the presence of obstacles is assessed. Hence a correct choice of the most appropriate turbulence model is crucial to a successful implementation of CFD in the modeling and simulation of dispersion of toxic and/or flammable substances.In this paper an attempt has been made to employ CFD in the assessment of heavy gas dispersion in presence of obstacles. For this purpose several turbulence models were studied for simulating the experiments conducted earlier by Health and Safety Executive, (HSE) U.K. at Thorney Island, USA (Lees, 2005). From the various experiments done at that time, the findings of Trial 26 have been used by us to see which turbulence model enables the best fit of the CFD simulation with the actual findings. It is found that the realizable k-? model was the most apt and enabled the closest prediction of the actual findings in terms of spatial and temporal concentration profiles. It was also able to capture the phenomenon of gravity slumping associated with dense gas dispersion.     

某地铁站突发事件乘客疏散行为分析研究（2）——行为分析

为了掌握突发事件下,乘客疏散行为反应;基于某地铁站突发事件区间隧道乘客紧急疏散事故案例,采用观察分析研究乘客在列车车厢内疏散行为特征、疏散路线规律、车厢内惊慌情绪分布及规律。结果表明:乘客疏散行为呈现波浪规律特征扩散传递;乘客惊慌逃散时呈现同年龄段同性别相互聚集现象;乘客惊慌逃散时呈现羊群效应;乘客惊慌逃散路线呈现圆弧现象;乘客惊慌情绪随着距离事故点的距离增加而减弱,呈负相关。为地铁设计人员、地铁安全评估、仿真模型、疏散应急预案提供数值参考,并对地铁站区间隧道存在的安全疏散问题提出优化建议。